Weekly Articles "Road to Riches" by Rich 'Tighty' Prew
The Road to Riches: Weekend 20th-21st June
One of the major things that sets successful bettors apart from others is their ability to maintain discipline and control their emotions.
Here are some of the emotions that can get in the way of making good betting decisions.
Fear.
There are two effective ways to avoid the fear of losing money. The first is simply to make sure that you only ever bet with money that you can afford to lose, and are fully prepared to lose. This is one of the main reasons for having a proper bankroll. By allocating a sum of money that's purely for betting purposes, you don't have to worry about losing money that you need for something else.
Secondly, you should try and ignore the monetary value of your bankroll. If you view your bankroll as a tool of the trade, you'll remove your emotional attachment to it. If you then also practice good bankroll management, you'll have no reason to fear even a string of losses.
Impatience
An important part of betting is knowing when to bet. Online especially it's very easy to bet in high volume. Placing a lot of bets can potentially bring some success, with an appropriate strategy, but it's generally much better to be selective and only bet when there's a very good reason to do so.
Many bettors suffer with impatience. The urge to place a bet, even if there's no real reason to do so, can be overwhelming. This can lead to placing speculative bets that aren't properly thought out.
Dealing with impatience can be a challenge. Before you place a bet, ask yourself why you are placing it. If you can't provide a solid answer, it's probably not a wager you should be placing.
Desperation and Greed
Most, if not all, sports bettors will have a particularly bad run of results at some point, and many will have a particularly good run of results. Sustained periods of losing can be very emotionally damaging, for obvious reasons, but sustained periods of winning can actually be just as bad.
A long streak of losses can easily lead to desperation. Desperation, in turn, can lead to betting at higher and higher stakes in an attempt to chase those losses. Chasing losses can be so tempting to try and recover some of the money that has been lost
A long streak of wins, on the other hand, can lead to greed. It's easy to feel like you can do nothing wrong when you are winning all the time, and the urge to try and win more can be overwhelming. Just like desperation, greed can also lead to betting at higher stakes..
Controlling your emotions in either of these circumstances largely comes down to discipline.
Confidence
It's not easy to develop winning betting strategies and it can be hard to stick with something that isn't generating an immediate return though, which is why confidence is so important in betting, helping to avoid second guessing every decision you make.
Getting the right balance of confidence is difficult. You have to be able to deal with a few losses without losing faith in yourself, but you equally have to be prepared to accept that you are capable of making mistakes.
Passion
Sports bettors are also of course sports fans, and this can present a problem. There's a lot of emotion involved in being a sports fan, particularly if you are passionate about a particular team or individual. This passion is part of what makes being a sports fan so much fun, but it's not so good when it comes to sports betting.
If you are an optimist, you may be tempted to bet on your team winning simply because you want them to, even if their chances aren't that great. If you are a pessimist, you might bet against your team, because you can't believe your team will get the victory you hope for. You may even decide to bet against your team so that you are happy either way
The point here is that you are making bets for the wrong reasons, which is always a mistake. It's very, very difficult to take the emotion out of things when betting on a sports event you really care about so it's best to simply avoid doing so. You'll surely find plenty of betting opportunities on events that you have no emotional involvement with.
Strong discipline will help you deal with all the potential problems that the emotions discussed above can cause.
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Royal Ascot - Saturday 20th June 2015
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Wimbledon 29th June-12th July 2015
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The Road to Riches: Weekend 13th-14th June
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Wimbledon 29th June-12th July 2015
All tennis that we have covered since our launch in Feb 2013 shows a +9.96% ROI and a £1158 profit at £10 a point (up to 28th May 2015)
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French Open Tennis subscribers betting £10 a point won £1810 with an ROI of +43%
Match betting on the French Open 2015 alone showed a profit of over 71points and a +ROI 19.27%
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The Road to Riches: Weekend 6th-7th June
- Football, the UEFA Champions League Final, Juventus v Barcelona in Berlin on Saturday. International friendlies including Republic of Ireland v England on Sunday
- Formula One, the Canadian Grand Prix in Montreal
- Racing, The Derby at Epsom the highlight of a programme including flat meetings at Doncaster, Lingfield and Musselburgh and over the jumps at Uttoxeter and Hexham
- Tennis, the final weekend of the French Open
- Golf, USPGA Tour: The Memorial Tournament at Muirfield Village GC in Ohio and European Tour: Nordea Masters, PGA Sweden National in Malmo
Free Tip of the Week :
After a big strategic error from Mercedes denied Lewis Hamilton a pole to flag victory in Monaco a fortnight ago, the general expectation is that he will bounce back and win this weekend in Montreal at the Canadian Grand Prix, and the best price on him doing so is 4/6. He has a superb record in the race, and only once has a team-mate out-qualified him in eight starts. The high speed, low downforce circuit is tailor-made to suit Hamilton’s driving style.
I wonder if there may be value opposing him this weekend though. Last year both Mercedes cars hit problems in Canada with Energy Recovery System ( ERS) failures. Hamilton had to retire after the knock-on loss of engine braking caused the rear discs to overheat. Abu Dhabi apart, where Rosberg had ERS failure in the final last race of last season, the Mercedes cars have been extremely reliable since.
However delve a little further and there are signs that Mercedes is having to push to keep a rejuvenated Ferrai behind. In Bahrain this year, both Hamilton and Rosberg suffered brake problems after Mercedes opted for better aerodynamic performance and pace over cooling capability. Also, brake temperatures remained a concern for Mercedes in Monaco according to Hamilton’s race radio.
In Canada, Mercedes could once more have the performance advantage to sacrifice a little pace to prevent a recurrence of brake issues. This is a race though that, more than most, tends to produce a surprise or two and heavy brake wear ( on a track mainly comprising long straights and chicanes ) tends to be a factor.
Ahead of this weekend’s race Ferrari and Honda have become the first manufacturers to carry out in-season development work on their engines. Having already made major progress since 2014, substantially closing the deficit to Mercedes, Ferrari have spent three tokens (of ten available for 2015) ahead of this race.. That in theory should allow them to put more pressure on Mercedes. It is crucial that Ferrari are close to Mercedes in Montreal to force the world champions to push hard in the race, rather than being able to control the pace and temperatures from the front.
As Mercedes tech boss Paddy Lowe said on Tuesday: "It will be interesting to see whether and how the 'balance of power' is shifted this weekend", specifically referring to how much closer the new Ferrari power unit might bring them to the Mercedes cars. The gap in qualifying has been around 7/10ths of a second recently and there should be around 3/10ths in the power unit upgrade. The gap in races has been less with Ferrari impressive on race pace and tyre wear.
For Canada, racing on the least durable tyres in the Pirelli range (soft and super-soft), we can expect Ferrari to mount a serious challenge to Mercedes in race conditions. Their superior tyre management across a full race distance may again help keep Mercedes in check, and if they do Mercedes will have to risk brake problems by being unable to compromise aerodynamics for cooling.
This combination of a track that is hardest in the area of greatest Mercedes vulnerability and the Ferrari engine upgrade makes Sebastian Vettel an interesting each-way play here. Each way terms are 1/3 the odds for a top two finish and Vettel is 8/1+ in a market with both Mercedes drivers in at 4/6 and 15/8. Of course it's still hard to look past Lewis Hamilton on any Grand Prix weekend, and a Mercedes 1-2 would not surprise but the conditions for some each-way value on Vettel are here.
3 points each way Sebastian Vettel Canadian Grand Prix at 17/2 William Hill (1/3 1, 2) or 8/1 Bet365, Sportingbet, Skybet, BetfairSportsbook
(timezones mean that prices will be down for much of friday evening until after free practice two. Qualifying is 6pm Saturday UK time, the race 6pm Snday UK time)
After England and New Zealand drew the two test series ended 1-1, next week sees a five match ODI series with games as follows:
9th June Edgbaston
12th June, The Oval
14th June, Southampton
17th June Trent Bridge
20th June Chester-Le-Street
On Paper there is a big disparity between the two sides. New Zealand were world cup runners up in February whilst England exited in the group stages. New Zealand also have had a huge advantage in mindset in ODIs, and we saw signs in the recent test series that their aggressive approach, scoring consistently at 5 runs an over, has not changed. In the Headingley test first innings scoring 350 in 70 overs, where most test sides would take 100 overs plus for that score, created 30-50 extra overs in the game for them to bowl which proved vital with the loss of play due to weather and allowed them to force a win. In the series six Kiwi batsmen had strike-rates of 60+, compared to just two for England. Essentially they were playing one-day cricket over the five day format. New Zealand are a brave side. Under the captaincy of Brendon McCullum they only play one way and their approach in the ODIs will be the same.
New Zealand are an ODI team in their prime. Looking at ODI performances in 2015 only amongst the squad we have:
Guptill 786 runs in 18 innings at 49
Williamson 641 runs in 15 innings at 49
McCullum 608 runs in 17 innings at 35
Taylor 554 runs in 17 innings at 42
Anderson 441 in 15 innings at 34
In the bowling ranks
Boult 30 wickets in 15 games at 20
Anderson 25 wickets in 16 games at 21
Southee 24 wickets in n13 games at 28
All play in the upcoming series, supplemented by the likes of specialists Elliott and Ronchi.
All this is in contrast to England’s squad. Major players are rested, with one eye on a very crowded schedule and upcoming ashes, including Anderson, Broad, Bell and Moeen Ali. In its favour the squad is full of talent. Supplementing the experience of Morgan, Buttler, Root and Finn are some of the most explosive players around the county scene. Hales, Roy, Billings, Willey are all match-winners and point (finally) to England adopting a more modern approach to the ODI game
It is a huge task to ask a young team to overcome New Zealand here though. The probability of questionable weather shortening games gives them a chance of course but the advantage in such home conditions is likely to be negated by the skill of Boult and Southee with the swinging ball.
All this helps explain why New Zealand are a prohibitive 1/2 to win a five game series.
Coverage of the Investec Derby and Oaks
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The Road to Riches: Weekend 30th-31st May
Coming up this weekend
- Football, The FA Cup final between Arsenal and Aston Villa on Saturday
- Racing, on the flat at Chester, Newmarket, Haydock, York and Chepstow and over the jumps at Stratford-on-avon
- Tennis, the middle weekend of the French Open
- Golf, USPGA Tour: AT&T Byron Nelson Championship, at Las Colinas, Texas and European Tour: Dubai Duty Free Irish Open at Royal County Down GC.
- Cricket, the second Test Match, England v New Zealand at Headingley
- Rugby Union, the Aviva Premiership final between Bath and Saracens
Free Tip of the Week :
Defending champions Arsenal attempt to retain the FA Cup when they play Aston Villa on Saturday
In previous all Premier League cup final ties, league position at the end of the season has proved a decent indicator of likely success. In 75% of these finals, the highest placed team emerged as outright winners and that trend is expected by odds-setters to continue in this game with Arsenal best priced 4/7 and Aston Villa 6/1 to win in 90 minutes.
Recent finals have been close though. Arsenal needed extra-time to beat Hull City last year and each of the previous seven finals have been decided by a single goal. Perhaps reflecting the importance of the game, of all Premier League contested finals only 29% contained over 2.5 goals in 90 minutes. Five of the seven finals at new Wembley have seen under 2.5 goals and only one, last year’s, over 3.5 goals
Would we expect these trends to continue for this game? Perhaps the easier side to analyse is Arsenal, who over the 2014-15 season scored 1.89 goals per game and for whom in an era of Chelsea/Manchester City domination of the Premier League the FA Cup represents their best chance of silverware. After poor results towards the back end of the season, the form of Walcott and Wilshere in the 4-1 victory over WBA speaks to the strength of depth they have going into this game
Aston Villa are an interesting side to assess. In terms of the bare statistics, the most glaring comparison between Lambert’s Villa and Sherwood’s version appears in the shooting, goal scoring and conceding data. Overall, Lambert’s Villa scored just 26% of the total goals in their games, while taking only 43% of total shots and 38% of shots on target. Sherwood has raised these overall percentages and all three numbers are above 50% during his 13 Premier League matches in charge.
For the season overall Villa scored 31 league goals their lowest ever in a single season. However over Sherwood’s 15 games (with seven wins and a draw) Villa have scored 24 goals, for an average of 1.6 goals a game. Under Lambert in the 24 games in 2014-15 before he left, only12 goals and no less than 15 games in which they did not score
So on the 15 game sample size we have to go at we can see a real change in approach which has seen the introduction of the talented Grealish and the reinvigoration of Benteke, for whom the Cup final may be his final game for the club.
Now all this is not to say that Aston Villa are necessarily value for the game overall but it does suggest that this game may buck the trend of low-scoring finals. In terms of player markets Benteke has scored 12 goals in his last 12 games for Villa, all since Sherwood arrived (three goals in 21 games before that). The whole side plays through him and aims to create chances for him.
Bet365 offer first goalscorer odds and, which is the especially interesting component of the proposed bet, 1/3 the odds each way unlimited places to score anytime. Of course the price reflects that Benteke plays for the underdogs, but the each way part of the bet to score anytime looks very good
5 points each way Christian Benteke First goalscorer in the FA Cup Final 17/2 Bet365 (each way 1/3 the odds unlimited places)
Betting Discipline
Betting discipline is the ability to handle the inevitable losing runs, and to only place bets when you feel you have an edge. Fun Bets or Interest bets are the downfall of many otherwise profitable gamblers, placing bets that don’t meet normal criteria for a ‘value bet’. It could be a bet on Monday night football just because it’s on TV, even though you have no strong fancy, or it might be a bet on a race at Wolverhampton while you’re waiting for your main bet to run at Newmarket. These type of bets are a drain on, and could even eliminate, the profits you make from your main bets.
Some punters follow a similar line every day. They might go to their local bookies, or sit and watch the racing on TV, but the general policy will be to back a horse for interest in most races. Most punters don’t have the discipline to wait for the bets they think they have an edge with. Having a bet in every race is fine but only if you can find a bet you believe to be value. If you have four or five strong bets for the day and dilute them with numerous fun bets all your good work in coming up with the value selections will be wasted by your lack of discipline.
if you want to be a consistent long term winner than you have to have the temperament and discipline to knock those ‘fun bets’ and bets that don’t meet your price criteria on the head. No matter whether you only bet when your price criteria is met, or if you just bet for fun, you should always get the best price, which means opening as many accounts as possible
There are punters who normally only place bets where they feel they have an edge, and while they could be successful long term; a losing run can often be enough to derail their attempts to make a living from the game. Just because you make money long term doesn’t mean there won’t be periods of short term losses. How you react to these set-backs is vital to your continued success. More often than not the losing run will fall within an entirely expected sequence of results. It’s vital to analyse your results to determine if the results are just due to bad luck or perhaps some variable that might have changed which could explain your lack of success. If however after this analysis you can’t find any reason for the downturn and the results experienced fall within what might be expected in an unlucky period then stick with it, don’t chase losses and don’t lose discipline by backing in areas and at prices different than your normal methods
French Tennis Open (Roland Garros) (24th May-7th June 2015)- by Nigel Seeley
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Coverage of the Investec Derby and Oaks
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Investec Derby and Oaks 2015
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Royal Ascot 16th-20th Jne 2015
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The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
£10 per point on every recommended bet since launch in Feb 2013 would be winning £11,380.10 (as at 28-05-15)
All bets have an ROI +3.31% and Horse Racing has an ROI +13%
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The Road to Riches: Weekend 23rd-24th May
Coming up this weekend
- Football, The last weekend of the Premier League season, and the Football League play-off finals.
- Formula One, the Monaco Grand Prix
- Racing, on the flat at Goodwood, Haydock, Salisbury, Beverley and Catterick and over the jumps at Ffos Las
- Tennis, the final warm up events before the French Open: ATP Geneva Open and WTA International in Strasbourg.
- Golf, USPGA Tour: Crowne Plaza Invitational at Colonial CC, Fort Worth, Texas and European Tour: BMW PGA Championship at Wentworth
- Cricket, the first Test Match of the English summer, against New Zealand at Lords
- Rugby Union, the Aviva Premiership Play-off semi-finals
Free Tip of the Week :Aviva Premiership rugby Play-Offs
Last weekend the line up for the Aviva Premiership Rugby play-offs was decided with Leicester and Saracens winning to make the semi-finals which take place this weekend. Leicester, who finished 3rd travel to 2nd placed Bath whilst 4th placed Saracens travel to Northampton the top side during the league season. The winners of the two ties meet in the Grand Final at Twickenham in May.
Several years ago Bath began to benefit from the massive investment of owner Bruce Craig both on and off the field. Last year, Bath sat in the play-off positions for the majority of the season only fall away at the end of the season, narrowly missing the play-offs. This year, despite a brief blip after Christmas, they have been one of the two sides in the league that have been consistently excellent, and after their putting 50 points on Gloucester last weekend they have a home semi-final.
Bath used to be seen as a soft touch when the going got tough. They have always had a good set of backs but their forwards were regularly bested. That changed when they came away from local rivals Gloucester last year at Kingsholm with a win from a game that included two red cards, five yellow cards and numerous fights. They were the games that Bath would have lost in the past. Not any more. This year the side has matured further with that more physical a final component for a team that is now one game away from their first ever Premiership final.
Bath’s home game against Leicester will turn on the performance of their forwards against the experienced Leicester eight. Leicester have struggled for much of the season after inconsistency and injuries dogged their campaign until the six nations. They eased into the play-offs with a not-altogether-convincing win at home to a second string Northampton side. After having played so impressively the week before away at Wasps, this performance was another step back, returning to the one-out-runner attacking strategy that had seen their game stagnate so badly this season. It is up front that Leicester need to be in the ascendancy because Bath (who pulverised Leicester 45-0 early in the season at the Rec) have the best backs in the country.
Co-ordinated by England fly-half George Ford Bath have a lot of firepower out wide from the likes of Jonathan Joseph, Kyle Eastmond and Anthony Watson and scored no fewer than 170 points and over 35 tries more than Leicester over the season. Assuming they match Leicester up front Bath should win and advance to Twickenham.
In the other semi-final, Northampton rested players at Leicester last week and face Saracens, a side for whom 4th in the regular season with seven losses represented major under-performance given their squad depth. What Saracens do have though is big game players throughout the side and it is difficult to see either pack being dominant for long periods of the game. This could well be a very close game. Saracens operate with defined patterns of play and play the percentages of field position. Northampton will be favourites at home, but this is a tighter game than prices of 8/13 Northampton 8/5 Saracens implies
Looking at the Aviva Premiership outrights current prices are as follows:
Northampton 6/4
Bath 2/1
Saracens 7/2
Leicester 8/1
As stated above i am confident Bath will beat Leicester. Once they do so they would be sub 6/4 underdogs to beat Northampton in the final and small odds-on to beat Saracens on 30th May at Twickenham
10 points Bath to win the Aviva Premiership at 2/1 with BetVictor, Sportingbet, Bet365 amongst others
NZ v England cricket
The two test England/New Zealand Test series which began at Lords yesterday is the first of the English summer, and a tough precursor to the Ashes for England
After the disappointment of failing to win the three match series in the West Indies, New Zealand are difficult opponents for England at the start of the test summer in early season English conditions. England are a side in flux. They have undoubted strengths, the middle order of Ballance,Bell and Root scored heavily in the Caribbean and James Anderson was the top wicket taker in the series. Elsewhere in the team though there remain question-marks.
Ashley Lyth has come in as Alistair Cook’s opening partner after Jonathan Trott’s unhappy tour and subsequent retirement. Lyth enjoyed an outstanding 2014 with 1489 Championship runs at an average of 67.68 as Yorkshire won their first title since 2001 and will be the sixth post-Strauss Cook opening partner. None of the other five players tried – Nick Compton, Joe Root, Michael Carberry, Sam Robson and Trott – have lasted more than nine Tests.
Anderson apart, the bowling attack has more question-marks than reliability. Broad in the seam bowling ranks for example, supplemented for Lords by Durham’s Mark Wood, flattered to deceive in the Caribbean and in the spin bowling department England have to rely on Ali and Root, with no long term replacement for Swann on the horizon yet
New Zealand are tricky customers, on the back of their excellent World Cup performance. In Boult, Southee and Henry they have an effective seam bowling line up and a batting line up including Guptill, Williamson, Taylor and McCullum is both talented and experienced
So why were England favourites for both the first Test and Series? The answer to this could be the difficulty for touring sides playing Tests in England in May. Perhaps the answer lies in history. New Zealand have won one from their previous eight away series and have failed to win a Test in their last nine attempts in England, but this is a more formidable New Zealand team than any of those line ups.
Perhaps it is due to lack of preparation. The International calendar is so crowded that this has two knock on effects for touring sides. Warm up games are few, and key players are elsewhere. For New Zealand they have played Somerset and Worcestershire relying on players outside the touring party to make up numbers whilst Brendon McCullum, Tim Southee, Trent Boult and Kane Williamson were still playing in the IPL through the warm-up games
This might have suggested that New Zealand might not hit the ground running in the first Test and with it only being a two test series that might have mitigate against backing them at an otherwise attractive 11/5 for the series, and odds-against on a draw no bet basis too. Instead though, having won the toss and bowled on a green strip reducing England to 30-4 the 11/5 looked a big price indeed. Perhaps it was only as the shine came off the new ball, and the excellence of Joe Root and Ben Stokes who led a superb counter-attack that saw England score 324-3 over the rest of the first day, that New Zealand betrayed some red ball rustiness and made the pre-series odds with England favourites make a lot more sense.
French Tennis Open (Roland Garros) (24th May-7th June 2015)- by Nigel Seeley
All tennis covered since our launch in Feruary 2013 shows a +9.96% ROI and a £1158 profit at £10 a point
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Premier League 2014/15
Premier League Statistical Analysis 23rd-24th May 2015 - write up for the weekend has been published here
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