Weekly Articles "Road to Riches" by Rich 'Tighty' Prew
The Road to Riches: Weekend 7th-8th March
Coming up this weekend
- Football, QPR v Tottenham is the only Premier League match alongside the FA Cup Quarter finals and the football league programme
- Cricket, the 2015 Cricket World Cup continues this weekend. Pakistan v South Africa and Australia v Sri Lanka are key group games
- Racing, ahead of the Cheltenham festival, includes national hunt meetings at Sandown, Chepstow and Ayr.
- Tennis, the Davis Cup World Group 1st Round matches around the world
- Golf, the World Golf Championships - Cadillac Championship at the Trump National Doral in Florida.
Free Tips of the Week
Later in this week's blog I have written about betting on F1 and the variety of markets available both on races and the season as a whole. For this week's free tip section, a quick summary of suggested ante-post bets for the F1 season.
Winter testing results are keenly analysed for the likely trends for the season ahead. They can be difficult to interpret, teams can "sandbag", develop their cars at different rates and carry varying levels of fuel but nevertheless we can still look at the outcomes and compare to betting markets.
The major trends this winter as follows:
- Mercedes remain the quickest package. On the soft tyre faster than any other car even when their competitors were running the much quicker super-soft, which Mercedes did not run all winter
- Hamilton did a race simulation run at the second test on which he was more than 0.8 seconds a lap on average faster than Red Bull's Daniel Ricciardo
- Mercedes appear to have made a car that last year produced one of the most dominant seasons in F1 history even faster. As Hamilton said, when asked for his impressions of the new car: "Like last year's car but better."
- Behind Mercedes, the next few teams look tightly bunched. Williams, Ferrari and Red Bull are in this pack.
- Times suggest that Williams have an advantage over Ferrari of anywhere between 0.2-0.4 seconds. Indications are that Williams' fastest times this winter were on full qualifying, low-fuel specification though
- Ferrari have improved their engine, their weakest link last year. Ferrari have added as much as 80bhp compared to 2014
- The Red Bull chassis again appears strong, but Renault has made the smallest gains of any manufacturer over the winter - only 30bhp or so - with the result that their works team looks to have fallen further behind Mercedes, with upgrades only due in the summer.
- Huge teething problems for the new McLaren Honda
Relating that through to the markets:
- All set to be Rosberg v Hamilton Mark 2. I think the signs are that Mercedes further ahead than they ended last season. Hamilton is 4/6, Rosberg 5/2. Whilst Hamilton is a fraction quicker, and a more aggressive racer there will almost certainly be a time this season when Rosberg will trade favourite, 5/2+ is a decent price for only a marginal underdog who led the championship for long periods last year.
- "Without Mercedes" markets: Six drivers sub 10-1, and that includes Alonso (who misses the first race and anyway will be a long way behind by the time McLaren are competitive), Raikkonen (who won't be on an equal footing with Vettel) and Massa (beaten by over 50 points by Bottas last season in identical cars). That leaves Ricciardo, Vettel and Bottas. Bottas, undoubtedly a potential world champion on a 3-5 year view, was a potential play at 9/2 less than a week ago but has been backed into 5/2 favourite. Looking at prices now, Vettel offers most value. The Red Bull is underpowered and the Ferrari is close to Williams already, with more to come
Formula One 2015 Season Ante post:
20 points Nico Rosberg to win the Drivers Championship 3.9 Betfair (5/2 Betfair Sportsbook or Bet365 is a lower price limit)
10 points Sebastian Vettel to win the Drivers Championship w/o Mercedes 3/1 Ladbrokes (5.0+ in small size on Betfair)
Cheltenham Festival (Tues 10th - Fri 13th Mar 2015)
Cheltenham 2014: 417 points profit, ROI +69.24% Three winning days out of four
The Cheltenham 2015 package covers all four days of analysis and write ups and access to all the bets that we are having and costs £199.99Sign up here
Betting Emporium are very excited to be hosting our first ever Cheltenham Preview Night on Saturday
When: Saturday 7th March 2015 (6.30pm Champagne reception, followed by four course dinner inc wine)
Where: The Bleeding Heart Restaurant, Bleeding Heart Yard, off Greville Street, Hatton Garden, London EC1N 8SJ
Full details can be found HERE
CHELTENHAM FESTIVAL 2015 - FREE MONEY
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Premier League Darts (5th Feb-21st May 2015)
The 10 player tournament is being held on 16 successive Thursday nights from Feb 5th through to May 21st 2015.
Nigel Seeley is providing weekly updates on all the matches.
Sign up to Brodders' tips:
All Brodders bets since inception are currently showing a ROI of +7.16% on over 800 bets (at 27th January 2015)
Subscription to Brodders' write ups, analysis and bets is £50 a month. You can join at any time
Subscribe here
It only seems like weeks ago that Lewis Hamilton won his second Formula 1 World Championship but in just over a week we are into another season with the first Grand Prix of 2015 in Australia.
Here is a summary of some of the most popular ways to bet on the sport and what to look for. This will range from race outright winner through to matchup bets, podium finishers, ante-post & props.
Betting on Outright race winners
Bets on the outright winner of a race are the most popular type of F1 bet by volume. It’s the most basic type of bet where punters simply choose who they think will win the race.
In most F1 seasons, only 4-6 drivers will win races. It’s a top-heavy sport where a small number of drivers win due to performance disparities from teams at the top of the grid to those further back
Podium finishers
As the title implies, betting on drivers to finish in the top 3 in any given race. When one driver or team is offering poor odds as an outright winner, podium finisher bets can be the place to find value. This was often the case in 2014 with one dominant team, short-priced favourites and a variety of teams competitive for filling the podium depending on prevailing conditions and circuit characteristics.
F1 Match-Up Betting
A match-up bet is where two or more drivers are put into a grouping, and our job is to figure out which of those drivers will have the best finish. When the grouping consists of just two drivers, these are usually called head-to-head bets. When it’s 3 or more drivers in a group, they’re called match-ups.
Betting on match-ups eliminates most of the drivers in the field from your calculations.
Prop Bets
Prop bets are any types of bets that don’t fit into the standard betting categories. In F1, they are based on specific events or results that don’t relate to the race winner.
Examples of typical F1 prop bets:
- Fastest Lap
- Fastest Qualifier
- First Driver to Retire
- Over/under on season race wins per driver.
Ante Post Betting
World Drivers Championship markets for 2015 have been offered since the end of the last season. Some sites close these bets just before the season begins but most keep them open through into the season.
Since winning bets don’t pay out until the end of the season, which is 9 months long and since this is a sport where big priced underdogs are highly unlikely to win these types of bets are more popular with casual punters than professionals. This is especially the case in the last couple of years with Mercedes dominant under new regulations. For 2015 the market prices up Hamilton 4/6 Rosberg 5/2 18/1 bar with each way markets only offering two places
The World Constructors Championship is given to the top engine/car combination. Since the top driver accumulates the most points, the World Constructors Championship usually goes to the constructor of the car driven by the Drivers Champion. However, since this is a team championship, other drivers on the team must also perform well.
With that said, in 27 of the last 30 F1 seasons (1985-2014), the World Constructors Championship has been won by the team who also won the World Drivers Championship. This means that your Drivers Championship and Constructors Championship futures bets should typically coincide with each other.
For 2015 Mercedes are 1/20 to win the constructors 20/1 bar….
Unsurprisingly, bookmakers offer us markets without the favourite and because much of the field is bunched up behind Mercedes, these look much more competitive: 5/2 the field in the Drivers w/o Hamilton and Rosberg and 6/1 bar the top 5.
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
£10 per point on every recommended bet since launch in Feb 2013 would be winning £14,173 (as at 18-2-15)
All bets have an ROI +5.24% and Horse Racing has an ROI +19.77%
There is also a Frequently Asked Questions Section
The Road to Riches: Weekend 28th February - 1st March
Coming Up this weekend
- Football, a full Premier League and football league programme
- Cricket, the 2015 Cricket World Cup continues this weekend. New Zealand v Australia and England v Sri Lanka are key Group A games on Saturday
- Racing, including national hunt meetings at Doncaster, Newbury and Kelso
- Tennis, the ATP tour events are in Dubai, Buenos Aires and Acapulco
- Rugby Union the Six Nations resumes, with the clash of unbeaten Ireland and England in Dublin on Sunday the highlight
- Golf, the European Tour's Joburg Open in South Africa and the USPGA Tour's Honda Classic in Palm Beach Gardens, Florida
Free Tip of the Week
This weekend sees a pivotal game in this year's Six Nations Rugby with Ireland v England (Sunday 3pm). Both sides have played two, won two and this is really a clash to relish.
Ireland at home play a very consistent style based off the forwards, Jonny Sexton and Conor Murray's excellent tactical kicking game and brilliant defence. Against France a fortnight ago the re-starts were brilliant, the big guns are returning in the pack (though the loss through injury of Jamie Heaslip is a blow) and the breakdown work is awesome. France's size caused them some problems, but that is nine wins in a row now leading up to the World Cup in the Autumn. Coach Joe Schmidt, who put out sides playing flowing attacking rugby at Clermont and Leinster has gone more ‘English’ in style at national level. The Ireland side is pragmatic and foucuses as much on stopping the opposition as creating chances. No doubt they will pay the mercurial Jonathan Joseph close attention.
England have the brawn to meet Ireland head on and finally are showing signs of some creativity in the backs making space and finishing opportunities. Where in the past two games England have lacked in comparison to Ireland is in defence, but if England have addressed this over the past fortnight in training this is likely to be an attritional game of few opportunities where field position is key. One of the reasons for this is that under Ireland's tactical approach they struggle to score tries. It took an hour to break down Italy in Rome, and they did not cross the paint against France. It is going to be a real arm-wrestle and most likely a battle of penalty kicks for long periods.
The handicap market is struggling to split these two with Ireland at home only 1 point favourites. If pushed, I would fancy them to win outright at home in large part because of Murray and Sexton and their game manangement/execution of strategy, and would consider -1 to under-state their home advantage but whoever wins it would be a major surprise if this was more than a one score game either way.
Rather than pick a 10/11 handicap shot for this column, we try to avoid anything too short for the free weekly tips, the bet that appeals is in the Half-time/Full-Time market where we can "dutch" England/Ireland and Ireland/England at 7/1 each. Much like the opening game of the Six Nations, where Wales dominated the first half, led and England came back for the win in the second half there appears to be a real possibility that a very close game here could see a narrow half time lead reversed at the end. My contention above that Ireland will try to stop England creating, whilst at the same time not scoring many tries themselves is at the heart of this view.
I'm choosing the one bet here, as I like Ireland to win the game
5 points England/Ireland Half-time/Full-Time at 13/2 at SkyBet or 6/1 generally
Cheltenham Festival (Tues 10th - Fri 13th Mar 2015)
Cheltenham 2014: 417 points profit, ROI +69.24% Three winning days out of four
Winners at 40/1, 11/1, 10/1 and 6/1. Placed at 20/1, 18/1 (2nd and 3rd in same race), 16/1, 14/1, 7/1, 7/1, 6/1
Cheltenham 2013: 51 points profit, ROI +29.86% Three winnings days out of four
Winners at 7/1 and 11/2. Placed at 66/1 and 40/1 (2nd and 3rd same race), 33/1, 25/1, 20/1, 14/1, 14/1, 12/1, 9/1, 8/1, 8/1, 15/2, 13/2, 5/1, 5/1
The Cheltenham 2015 package covers all four days of analysis and write ups and access to all the bets that we are having and costs £199.99
Sign up here
Betting Emporium are very excited to be hosting our first ever Cheltenham Preview Night
When: Saturday 7th March 2015 (630pm Champagne reception, followed by four course dinner inc wine)
Where: The Bleeding Heart Restaurant, Bleeding Heart Yard, off Greville Street, Hatton Garden, London EC1N 8SJ
Full details can be found HERE
Premier League Darts (5th Feb-21st May 2015)
The 10 player tournament is being held on 16 successive Thursday nights from Feb 5th through to May 21st 2015.
Nigel Seeley is providing weekly updates on all the matches.
Sign up to Brodders' tips:
All Brodders bets since inception are currently showing a ROI of +7.16% on over 800 bets (at 27th January 2015)
Subscription to Brodders' write ups, analysis and bets is £50 a month. You can join at any time
Subscribe here
Bookmaker reviews and advice
Getting the best price available is very important for all those who take their betting seriously.
Please open an account with all those bookmakers on the page on this link that you do not already have an account with using the links provided.
Watch Neil's videos with his free Cheltenham tips
Sportingbet Cheltenham Countdown 2015: Champion Hurdle Video 1
Sportingbet Cheltenham Countdown 2015: Champion Chase Video 2
Sportingbet Cheltenham Countdown 2015: World Hurdle Video 3
Open your SportingBet account here to back Neil's free tips and get a FREE bet up to £100 as well
Choose either 'Bet £5 Get £20' or a '100% bonus up to £100'
(If you've had your Sportingbet account restricted in the past we may be able to get you back in action there. Email support@bettingemporium.com)
There are literally hundreds of pounds on offer from bookmakers just for signing up through Bettingemporium.comAn Ante-post bet is a long-term wager on the outcome of a season or special event. Most of the time you’ll find the markets on events listed before a season begins. For instance, you can bet on who is going to win the next year's Superbowl or Premier League the day after the event ends and in modern markets these bets aren’t limited to teams either, as you can also place bets on individual player accomplishments. Some sportsbooks offer these only before the season begins, while others have them listed all season long, up until the season is almost complete.
What factors should you consider in ante-post betting?
1. Time Value of Money
Some people think that you just look for value and if you think you have spotted a positive expectation you should pounce on it. However, with ante-post betting you also have to consider the time value of money. This means how long is part of your bankroll going to be tied up in the bet. If you are betting on an outcome that won’t be decided until eight months from now, you are going to need a higher return than a game that will be played tonight (assuming you will use that part of your bankroll x times over the length of time you are proposing to tie the money up for, generating a positive return from using it). How much do you make each year from gambling? Let’s just use an example of 10%. If the result is eight months away, that means you need 8/12 (months in a year) * 10%, or a 6.66% expected return.
2. Shop Around
Different sportsbooks are going to have widely different odds available on ante-post bets. The reason is that they know the sharps aren’t going to kill them with these bets as often because of the point above, the time value of money for professionals. This means that books can intentionally set more attractive odds, and also to entice new visitors to deposit in their book in the hope they will lose over the course of the season.
3. Know your sports
Ante-post betting suits some sports more than others. If you are looking for a long shot, then I have found that looking hard at the MLB and NFL pays off, betting on teams to win the World Series or the Super Bowl or divisions or conferences. The reason is that the play-off system is set up for upsets and the sport's administrators themselves promote level playing fields via salary caps, free agency and drafts. A team can go from nowhere to being in contention in a single season I have found the NBA and college football to be more reliable from one year to the next. In those two sports focus more on the favorites than long shots.
Domestically the chances of a big outsider coming to win the Premier League, the Six Nations or Cricket (say the World cup) is remote so often in these popular sports its not a case of looking for big turn-around stories but shorter prices and sub-markets. Similarly there are differences in other major sports. It's only in the last 18 months that a Grand Slam tennis winner hasn't been one of the big four for the first time in many years, but in Golf the depth of fields means big priced ante-post bets for the majors seem more feasible.
4. Variety sometimes isn't the spice of life
You also have to factor in more variables with ante-post betting. Injuries, team selections, players leaving for other clubs can all play havoc with long term predictions. A team loses a quarterback or a star pitcher in week one? The selectors don't pick a player for most of an event? The transfer window sees the team's leading striker move on?
The result of these variables is of course higher variance, good returns at great prices when you do scoop, but the incidence of wins is fewer than your activity on a day to day basis
What else is on Betting Emporium?
Cricket World Cup Preview: Analysis of the World Cup in Australia and New Zealand, free to access here and free Sub Market preview here
Premier League Statistical Analysis: You can read this here still FREE to all registered users
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
£10 per point on every recommended bet since launch in Feb 2013 would be winning £14,173 (as at 18-2-15)
All bets have an ROI +5.24% and Horse Racing has an ROI +19.77%
There is also a Frequently Asked Questions Section
The Road to Riches: Weekend 21st-22nd February
Coming Up this weekend
- Football, a full Premier League and football league programme
- Cricket, the 2015 Cricket World Cup continues this weekend featuring India against South Africa amongst the group stage action
- Racing, including national hunt meetings at Chepstow, Kempton and Newcastle (including the Eider Chase, see below)
- Tennis, the ATP tour events are in Marseille, Rio and Delray Beach, Florida
- Golf, the European Tour's Hero Indian Open at the Delhi Golf Club and the USPGA Tour's Northern Trust Open at Pacific Palisades in California.
Free Tip of the Week
This weekend Neil Channing looks at the Eider Chase at Newcastle (Saturday 2.55pm)
Cheltenham Festival (Tues 10th - Fri 13th Mar 2015)
Cheltenham 2014: 417 points profit, ROI +69.24% Three winning days out of four
Winners at 40/1, 11/1, 10/1 and 6/1. Placed at 20/1, 18/1 (2nd and 3rd in same race), 16/1, 14/1, 7/1, 7/1, 6/1
Cheltenham 2013: 51 points profit, ROI +29.86% Three winnings days out of four
Winners at 7/1 and 11/2. Placed at 66/1 and 40/1 (2nd and 3rd same race), 33/1, 25/1, 20/1, 14/1, 14/1, 12/1, 9/1, 8/1, 8/1, 15/2, 13/2, 5/1, 5/1
The Cheltenham 2015 package covers all four days of analysis and write ups and access to all the bets that we are having and costs £199.99
Sign up here
Betting Emporium are very excited to be hosting our first ever Cheltenham Preview Night
When: Saturday 7th March 2015 (630pm Champagne reception, followed by four course dinner inc wine)
Where: The Bleeding Heart Restaurant, Bleeding Heart Yard, off Greville Street, Hatton Garden, London EC1N 8SJ
Full details can be found HERE
Premier League Darts (5th Feb-21st May 2015)
The 10 player tournament is being held on 16 successive Thursday nights from Feb 5th through to May 21st 2015.
Nigel Seeley is providing weekly updates on all the matches.
Sign up to Brodders' tips:
All Brodders bets since inception are currently showing a ROI of +7.16% on over 800 bets (at 27th January 2015)
Subscription to Brodders' write ups, analysis and bets is £50 a month. You can join at any time
Subscribe here
Bookmaker reviews and advice
Getting the best price available is very important for all those who take their betting seriously.
Please open an account with all those bookmakers on the page on this link that you do not already have an account with using the links provided.
Watch Neil's videos with his free Cheltenham tips
Sportingbet Cheltenham Countdown 2015: Champion Hurdle Video 1
Sportingbet Cheltenham Countdown 2015: Champion Chase Video 2
Sportingbet Cheltenham Countdown 2015: World Hurdle Video 3
Open your SportingBet account here to back Neil's free tips and get a FREE bet up to £100 as well
Choose either 'Bet £5 Get £20' or a '100% bonus up to £100'
(If you've had your Sportingbet account restricted in the past we may be able to get you back in action there. Email support@bettingemporium.com)
There are literally hundreds of pounds on offer from bookmakers just for signing up through Bettingemporium.comNone of us can miss the adverts on the TV every day for Cashouts. They are offered to allow bettors to secure their profits or minimise their losses before the referee’s final whistle. Yet, by cashing out, we are effectively making bookmakers richer.
Let’s see why.
First a cash-out itself. Say a football game is going in our favour. We’ve backed Bradford to beat Sunderland, they are leading but we’re not sure they will hold on to the end. During the match we are able to take a profit earlier than full time by using the cash-out tool. Of course, we stand to make a bit less money than the full win by seeing it through to the end, assuming Bradford win.
On the contrary, if our team is struggling and is behind in the game we can now look to reduce our loss compared to the initial stake by cashing out. Again, the amount depends on the available odds at that time and obviously, we cannot save our whole bet.
The whole concept plays to the recreational bettor, watching the game live at home or following it on the move, it plays to recency of opinions and it plays to encouraging punters to use different and more immediate methods of betting, mobile and online in particular, and potentially therefore to higher account volumes. Over and above that, it alters betting psychology, away from optimal decision making.
Sport bettors are easily tempted by Cash Out. We’re impatient, we want to make a profit and we’ve all been scuppered by last minute equalisers or worse. The marketing sell is easy, and intuitive.
So, where is the catch?
Cash Out pays less than fair value.
The price of a “fair” Cash Out calculated by this formula:
((X*(Y-1)) – (X*(Z-1)))/Z
Where:
Χ = original stake
Υ = original starting odds
Ζ = final odds at Cash Out
Yet, the betting operator won’t offer this is due to “vig” or “juice”, which translates in profit margin for the bookmaker.
By taking “advantage” of the cash-out tool, the bettor effectively agrees betting on the two other likely outcomes of the game, besides their original selection. Thus, if they had bet on a home win originally, they are now betting on X2 by cashing out. As a result, they have bet on all possible outcomes.
However betting books are never priced at 100%. Cash-out leads bettors to place a second bet, with vig included at the new price, in the same game.
While originally the bettor placed a bet at theoretically –EV odds (over-round and vig ), they are now placing another bet under the same conditions. Yet, now the disadvantage is well concealed behind the attractiveness of Cash Out, either by securing a profit or minimising a loss.
The goal is to keep you entertained and happy while betting. If by offering you the cash-out tool, you are tempted spend more time and money on a betting platform then job done, and the “price” of doing so is not transparent to the recreational punter.
Everyone can understand if people might feel that their financial position dictates that they must take the guaranteed winnings on a big potential return. Anyone who accidentally flicks onto Deal or No Deal will see far worse decision making than this within minutes! However on a single bet where people are using correct bankroll/staking management the correct long-run play for punters is never ever to cash in a bet. If you have to change view, lay the outcome yourself on an exchange at the "true" price which will be a smaller loss of EV than using the cash out button
What else is on Betting Emporium?
Cricket World Cup Preview: Analysis of the World Cup in Australia and New Zealand, free to access here and free Sub Market preview here
Premier League Statistical Analysis: You can read this here still FREE to all registered users
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
£10 per point on every recommended bet since launch in Feb 2013 would be winning £14,173 (as at 18-2-15)
All bets have an ROI +5.24% and Horse Racing has an ROI +19.77%
There is also a Frequently Asked Questions Section
The Road to Riches: Weekend 14th-15th February
Coming Up this weekend
- Football, the fifth round of the FA Cup and football league programme
- Rugby, the second weekend of the Six Nations Championship
- Cricket, the opening weekend of 2015 Cricket World Cup featuring England against Australia and India versus Pakistan in group stage action
- Racing, including national hunt meetings at Ascot, Haydock and Wincanton
- Tennis, the ATP tour events are in Rotterdam, Sao Paulo and Memphis.
- Golf, the European Tour's Thailand Classic and the USPGA Tour's AT&T Pebble Beach National Pro-Am, at Pebble Beach, California
Premier League Darts (5th Feb-21st May 2015)
The 10 player tournament is being held on 16 successive Thursday nights from Feb 5th through May 21st 2015.
Nigel Seeley published his outright preview last week and is providing weekly updates on all the matches.
The first two weeks have delivered profitable tips.
The preview begins:
"During the next sixteen weeks we will be giving you all the best tips from this marathon event and after our pre-tournament selection of Gary Anderson at the World Championship we are confident we will nail some big winners again in this one over the next three months"
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Premier League Darts (full 16 week package)
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£99.99 Sign Up Here |
Free Tip of the Week
This weekend a look at an FA Cup fifth round match on Sunday lunchtime, Aston Villa v Leicester City. I am a Leicester City fan, and its been a long season of conceding soft goals and missed chances at the other end. A week ago of course I wouldn't have written about this game from an Aston Villa perspective either but from unpromising initial thoughts, sometimes events develop that present opportunities.
Much has been written about Villa's lack of goal-scoring, one league goal in 749 minutes and 12 league goals in 25 league games, and watching from afar looking at them from a possible betting perspective (nothing like being contrarian) I found myself putting any thoughts of it on the back-burner. The main creative player, Carles Gil, was playing picking up balls off the back four and not having the influence you would want to see in dangerous areas. Benteke was on the bench and Agbonlahor was ploughing a lone furrow up front. Then this week Lambert left.
As I talk about below in terms of club's changing managers, I am not a great advocate of this being a betting trigger in terms of expecting quick transformations in results. However, and persuing some of the output from local journalists in the last 24 hours, there appear to be a couple of easy things a caretaker coach can do here. Importantly, one of the journalists wrote "this is what the players want"
What do they want? Gil to play further forward, two up front and support Benteke. Gil apart, who is new to the club this year, this was the formula that produced some results in the past season with Weimann and Agbonlahor off Benteke, particularly playing on the break. A couple of Benteke injuries later, the team's tactics had moved a long way away from this.
On the other side rarely a game goes by without the (essentially Championship quality) Leicester City back four letting in a soft goal. Often it is the perils of poorly executed zonal marking that causes the mistake. I'm the man ten rows behind the manager trying to semaphore this to the technical area.
So, to first scorers. In the markets the home team has only four of the first ten, shortest price, names. All the signals are that the team will be set up to create more, and the opposition is leaky. The market hasn't changed for the likelihood of a different approach post Lambert
Benteke, Agbonlahor, Weimann and Gil are the obvious candidates and of course we have little to go on throughout this season. No player has scored more than 4 goals. Over and above the dull tactics, Benteke has struggled to regain form and fitness after rupturing an Achilles tendon, an injury that kept him out for almost six months. As 5-1 favourite we can't say that especially represents value though it would be if we were talking about the 2012 and 2013 player
Of the others, and expecting both to start:
5 points Gabriel Agbonlahor first goalscorer Aston Villa v Leicester City at 15-2 BetVictor
4 points Andreas Weimann first goalscorer Aston Villa v Leicester City at 7-1 BetVictor
(Bet365 offer 1/3 the odds each way unlimited places at 7-1 Agbonlahor, 13-2 Weimann. Both look good to me for those who can use Bet365's goal-scoring each way markets)
Cheltenham Festival (Tues 10th - Fri 13th Mar 2015)
Cheltenham 2014: 417 points profit, ROI +69.24% Three winning days out of four
Winners at 40/1, 11/1, 10/1 and 6/1. Placed at 20/1, 18/1 (2nd and 3rd in same race), 16/1, 14/1, 7/1, 7/1, 6/1
Cheltenham 2013: 51 points profit, ROI +29.86% Three winnings days out of four
Winners at 7/1 and 11/2. Placed at 66/1 and 40/1 (2nd and 3rd same race), 33/1, 25/1, 20/1, 14/1, 14/1, 12/1, 9/1, 8/1, 8/1, 15/2, 13/2, 5/1, 5/1
The Cheltenham 2015 package covers all four days of analysis and write ups and access to all the bets that we are having and costs £199.99
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Bookmaker reviews and advice
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Please open an account with all those bookmakers on the page on this link that you do not already have an account with using the links provided.
BetVictor4Play - Betvictor Horse Racing Offer
Saturday 14th February: All Channel 4 races: Ascot 2.05pm 2.40pm 3.15pm 3.50pm, Haydock 2.20pm 2.55pm and Wincanton 3.35pm
Place 4 or more bets and get a free bet to your average stake up to £10
This offer is open to new AND existing customers. Single bets only. New customers can also get the £25 free bet when signing up HERE
- Applies to bets placed on Live CH4 races only on Saturday 14th February 2015.
- Qualifying Live Channel 4 races include Ascot at 2.05pm, 2.40pm, 3.15pm and 3.50pm. Haydock 2.20pm and 2.55pm. Wincanton 3.35pm.
- See additional T&C on VC site.
In 2009 Arsene Wenger likened being a football manager to living on a volcano: any day could be your last in the job and in the past few weeks Redknapp, Lambert and Pearson have felt the tectonic plates shift in the boardroom with two leaving Premier League jobs and one other clinging on.
Data from the League Managers association confirms that it is a tenuous existence
|
Average Duration - Overall |
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Current Season |
1.73 |
|
Last 5 Seasons |
1.81 |
|
|
|
|
Average Duration - Overall (Sorted by League) |
|
Barclays Premier League |
2.32 |
|
Sky Bet Championship |
0.95 |
|
Sky Bet League One |
1.88 |
|
Sky Bet League Two |
2.05 |
Nearly six years on and Wenger’s view has surely been reinforced this season.
The issue of when to sack a manager remains one of the most contentious in modern football. Of course, what some stakeholders struggle to adapt to is that, taking our Premier League as an example, is that at least six of the top ten places in any given season should be accounted for by major sides due to financial disparities in the game that are about to accentuate under the new TV deal and that for every Koeman or Allardyce there will be ten managers in the bottom half under pressure from the expectations of boards and fans. Football management is less than a zero-sum game!
For football bettors it is often said that you should back a team who have just changed manager because the players will be eager to impress their new boss. The argument pre-supposes that they are capable of impressing their new boss. As bettors, we tend to remember the clubs who changed manager and promptly won. We forget all those who changed manager and promptly lost again.
A number of studies have been conducted which suggest that the appointment of a new manager should not be seen as a predictor of improved results. A 35-year study of the Bundesliga by University of Munster researcher Alexandra Tippenhauer - whose father, Hans-Dieter, was sacked by Arminia Bielefeld in 1980 -found that clubs who sacked a manager did no better in the next 12 games than they had done in the previous 12. A study in Holland by Dutch academics reached similar conclusions.
Dutch economist Dr Bas ter Weel said "Changing a manager during a crisis in the season does improve the results in the short term," he says. "But this is a misleading statistic because not changing the manager would have had the same result."
Ter Weel analysed managerial turnover across 18 seasons (1986-2004) of the Dutch premier division, the Eredivisie. As well as looking at what happened to teams who sacked their manager when the going got tough, he looked at those who had faced a similar slump in form but who stood by their boss to ride out the crisis. He found that both groups faced a similar pattern of declines and improvements in form.
While Ter Weel's research focused on Dutch football, he argues that this finding is not specific to the Netherlands. Major football leagues in Europe, including England, Germany, Italy and Spain also bore out the same conclusion - teams suffering an uncharacteristic slump in form will bounce back and return to their normal long-term position in the league, regardless of whether they replace their manager or not.
For football clubs, what the various studies show is that whether you stick or twist, it would have happened anyway, and it may well have been much cheaper for clubs who sacked their managers to hang on rather than be faced with a hefty pay-off.
Of course, there are some football clubs who change manager and see an improvement in form. Which ones do so will depend on many factors, among them the quality of the new manager, the calibre of the players already at his disposal and the funds available to buy new players, related also to the timing of transfer windows. We might, as bettors, be prepared to weight such a change in our thinking for a manager like Tony Pulis after his quick turn-around of results at Crystal Palace last year with a very distinctive style of play.
However the belief that changing a manager, in itself, improves results, if only in the short term, is false. For those of us betting on football, make it only a tiny part of your football betting approach considering the changes on a case by case basis only rather than a blanket view that new manager = new results.
What else is on Betting Emporium?
Cricket World Cup Preview: Analysis of the World Cup in Australia and New Zealand, free to access here and free Sub Market preview here
Premier League Statistical Analysis: You can read this here still FREE to all registered users
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
£10 per point on every recommended bet since launch in Feb 2013 would be winning £13,824 (as at 27-1-15)
All bets have an ROI +5.35% and Horse Racing has an ROI +20.89%
There is also a Frequently Asked Questions Section
The Road to Riches: Weekend 7th-8th February
Coming Up this weekend
- Football, including the North London and Merseyside derbies and the final of the African Cup of Nations
- Rugby, the start of the 2015 Six Nations on Friday night with Wales v England followed by Italy v Ireland and France v Scotland on Saturday
- Racing, including national hunt meetings at Newbury (the Betfair hurdle, see below), Uttoxeter and Wolverhampton
- Tennis, the ATP tour moves back to Europe with the conclusion of events in Montpellier and Zagreb
- Golf, the European Tour at the Maybank Malaysian Open in Kuala Lumpur and the USPGA Tour at the Farmers Insurance Open in San Diego, California.
- Cricket, the 2015 Cricket World Cup starts next week in Australasia and warm up fixtures take place across Australia and New Zealand this weekend. A free Cricket World Cup Preview has been published here, and a free Sub Market preview is here
Premier League Darts (5th Feb-21st May 2015)
The 10 player tournament will be held on 16 successive Thursday nights from Feb 5th through May 21st 2015.
Nigel Seeley published his outright preview this week and is providing weekly updates on all the matches. The first week's selections produced a profit.
The preview begins:
"During the next sixteen weeks we will be giving you all the best tips from this marathon event and after our pre-tournament selection of Gary Anderson at the World Championship we are confident we will nail some big winners again in this one over the next three months"
|
Premier League Darts (full 16 week package)
|
£99.99 Sign Up Here |
Free Tip of the Week
This weekend Neil Channing looks at the Betfair Hurdle at Newbury (the 3.35pm race), Britain's richest handicap hurdle.
"The 3.35 at Newbury is one of the most valuable and historic handicaps of the season so that also makes it one of the most competitive. The good news is though that the bookies offer a really generous FIVE places on a 24-runner handicap as they think the competitive nature makes it the perfect situation for a loss leader. It does mean that at 1/4 of the win price you are basically getting a great place bet on any horse and that the negative equity you give up on your win bet will be easily eclipsed by positive equity which you gain on the place. Ironically the bookmakers are putting all their marketing energy into the race that is clearly the worst of the day for them.
The fact that the race is so tough to win means that you must have something up your sleeve that the handicapper has not seen and that is why younger horses do well in this one. The fact is though that the form of last year's Triumph Hurdle and the general form of the juveniles last year has not stacked up. They were useless. I'm going to narrow this down by tossing all the now-5-year-olds out and that gets rid of the front two in the betting plus a few more. I'm going to pick two horses each-way who are both from stables in form, who are both improving. Before I mention them there were three I nearly picked and I could even have five bets in this race, that's how good it is for punters. The nearly ones were Amore Alato who is a decent price with Lizzie Kelly's claim being well worth it, Ballybolley is making his handicap debut, it's a stable I like and a big price, very unexposed and tough to rule out, Jolly's Cracked It is trained by a brilliant young trainer in Harry Fry, the horse tootled round Sandown without doing much last time and it's mark is probably hidden.
The two I'm going for are On Tour who, despite being a seven-year old, has only run four times over hurdles. Definitely will be staying well however soft it goes there and will relish the fast pace that this will be run at. Seems very solid to place for me and he's had a nice break to protect the handicap mark. My main problem with this one is we could have run into the Pricewise horse so it may be hard to get on.
My other horse is Fascino Rustico is also a 7-year old, it's had seven runs over hurdles but this is the first in a handicap. I just love the Skelton yard and this one could be anything. Goes well on soft ground, not so solid to place perhaps and could do with jumping better but a very fair price.
Cheltenham Festival Tuesday 10th - Friday 13th March 2015
Watch Neil's video with his first free tip
Festival Package details coming soon
Open your SportingBet account here to back Neil's free tip and get a £50 FREE bet as well
Choose either 'Bet £5 Get £20' or a '100% bonus up to £100'
Sportingbet Cheltenham Countdown 2015: Champion Hurdle watch HERE
Sign up to Brodders' tips:
All Brodders bets since inception are currently showing a ROI of +7.16% on over 800 bets (at 27th January 2015)
Brodders is currently covering games in the African Cup of Nations in addition to his usual leagues.
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Please open an account with all those bookmakers on the page on this link that you do not already have an account with using the links provided.
Skrill and Neteller Accounts: Bonus Cashback
As always we are trying to help our users make the most from their sportsbetting. Here is a simple way to increase your bank roll risk free. If you don't have a Skrill or Neteller account you can open them here and receive great monthly bonuses in association with eWallet-Optimizer, one of our marketing partners, plus plenty of other benefits.
Please use sign up code: bebonus
Access great cashback incentives from transfers to bookmaking, gaming and online poker sites, which are credited to you just for opening your accounts through us. If you already have an account, check with us to see if you might still be eligible here.
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- Monthly cashback bonus 0.4% - 0.5% of transfers (plus any Skrill Loyalty Club Bonus, +0.2% typically, and Promotions).
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How to Calculate Expected Value
The Expected Value of a bet tells us how much we can expect to win (on average) per bet, and as such is the most valuable calulcation a bettor can make when, for example comparing bookmakers.
What is Expected Value?
The concept of expected value (EV) is used to evaluate which option you should choose to maximise gains and minimise losses. It excludes variables like fun or personal satisfaction. Expected Value (EV) is essentially a positive (+EV) or negative (-EV) indicator that should guide you in making the best decision. EV allows us to estimate what bets are profitable and which ones are not.
How to Calculate Expected Value
The formula for calculating Expected Value is relatively easy. Multiply your probability of winning by the amount you could win per bet, and subtract the probability of losing multiplied by the amount you stand to lose per bet:
Expected value (EV) = wager + (expected win – expected loss)
For example, if you were to bet £10 on heads in a coin toss, and you were to receive £11 every time you got it right, the EV would be 0.5.
This means that if you were to make the same bet on heads over and over again, you can expect to win an average of £0.50 for each bet of £10.
Sportsbetting Expected Value (EV)
Expected value in sports betting involves the same sort of calculations: you know the house edge but don’t know your real odds of winning and losing. This is where knowledge and experience to estimate them adequately come into play.
Team X is playing team Y. The odds for team X is 4/1. You estimate that team X will win 40% of the time. Your expected value (EV) in betting on team X would be positive.
Expected value (EV) = wager + (expected win – expected loss)
In this scenario, it would look like this:
Expected value (EV) = 1 + ((0.4 x 4) – (0.6 x 1)) => 1.9
This means that betting on team A in such a game would be extremely favourable as you would turn £1 into £1.9 on average.
Another way to calculate EV is the following:
1. Find the decimal odds for each outcome (win, lose, draw)
2. Calculate the potential winnings for each outcome by multiplying your stake by the decimal, and then subtract the stake.
3. Divide 1 by the odds of an outcome to calculate the probability of that outcome
4. Substitute this information into the above formula.
For example, when Chelsea (1.263) play Leicester (13.5), with a draw at 6.5, a bet of £10 on Leicester to win would provide potential winnings of £125, with the probability of that happening at 0.074 (1 over 13.5) or 7.4%.
The probability of this outcome not occurring is the sum of Chelsea and a draw, or 79% + 15% = 93%
The amount lost per bet is the initial wager – £10. Therefore the complete formula, rounding up, looks like:
(0.07 x £125) – (0.93 x £10) = -£0.55
The EV is negative for this bet, suggesting that you will lose an average of £0.55 for every £10 staked.
But if you calculate your own probability and this probability differs from the implied probability of the odds, you could see where to find a positive EV, and therefore the best chance to win.
For example, the odds imply that Leicester only have a 7% chance of winning. If you calculate a 10% chance of winning, the EV for betting on a Leicester win jumps to £3.20.
What else is on Betting Emporium?
Cricket World Cup Preview: Analysis of the World Cup outright which starts next week in Australia and New Zealand, free to access here and free Sub Market preview here
English Football - Leagues and Cups: Stuart analyses the week's games in Premier League and Championship, free to access here
Premier League Statistical Analysis: You can read this here still FREE to all registered users
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
£10 per point on every recommended bet since launch in Feb 2013 would be winning £13,824 (as at 27-1-15)
All bets have an ROI +5.35% and Horse Racing has an ROI +20.89%
There is also a Frequently Asked Questions Section
