Weekly Articles "Road to Riches" by Rich 'Tighty' Prew
The Road to Riches Weekend of 12th-13th April
Coming up this weekend
- Horse Racing, On the flat at Brighton, Newbury, Nottingham and Thirsk, over the jumps at Ayr and Bangor-on-Dee.
- Football, Premier League fixtures include Newcastle United v Manchester United
- Rugby Union, the Investec Champions Cup Quarter Finals
- Cricket, the IPL continues
- Formula One, the Bahrain Grand Prix
- Golf, The RBC Heritage and Corales Punta Cana Championships on the USPGA Tour and the China Open on the DP World Tour
- Tennis, ATP BMW and Barcelona Opens
Royal Ascot
Neil’s Royal Ascot (Full Package 17th - 21st June 2025) is now live for subscription costing £199 Here
Free Tip
European Rugby Champions Cup Quarter Finals
Toulon v Toulouse Sunday 4pm
After last weekend’s last sixteen ties, Leinster are favourites for this year’s Champions Cup:
Leinster 5/4
Toulouse 15/8
Bordeaux 4/1
Northampton 16/1
Toulon 22/1
Glasgow 22/1
Munster 50/1
Castres 125/1
Undoubtedly the competition has some issues. 2023 and 2024 saw only 2 of 24 ties in the last sixteen and Quarter Finals won by away teams. 2025 saw only 1 of 8 last sixteen ties won by the away team, a famous win by Munster in La Rochelle.
Six of this year’s Quarterfinalists are Irish or French with sides form both countries having the structural advantage of the biggest salary cap (France) and best academy system (Ireland).
For the English sides the last sixteen saw only the fifth time a Premiership side conceded 60 points or more in a Champions Cup tie, and it was Saracens no less and then it happened again, Harlequins shipping 62 points in Dublin and losing 62-0 to Leinster.
Only Bath, Northampton and Gloucester have reached the last eight of the Champions Cup and Challenge cup combined, testament to how far behind our domestic competition is compared to the best in Europe.
That Northampton had a home tie in the last sixteen and a home tie in the last 8 against the weakest of the remaining French sides is a benefit of the sub-optimal tournament structure that seeds the last sixteen by Pool finishes. Last year’s finalists are also a major beneficiary in a half of the draw without the major French sides and with a path to the final going Harlequins/Glasgow/Northampton. Northampton is a side in the bottom half of the Premiership. Frankly it’s a surprise they are not odds-on for the tournament at this stage.
For Bordeaux, my ante-post tip, their “reward” for being the top seed into the knockout phase is a likely semi-final against Toulon or Toulouse (who they finished ahead of in their pool) the three sides making up three of the current top four in the Top 14. If they are to win it, they’ll be doing it the tough way.
Still the tournament isn’t that competitive even down to the last 8. Three of the four Quarterfinals sees double digit handicap favourites (Leinster -15, Northampton -14 and Bordeaux -11).
The exception is where Toulon (3rd in the top 14) host Toulouse (top of the Top 14 and defending European Champions and six-time winners) this weekend in the last of the Quarterfinals. Toulouse are six-point away favourites which pricked my ears when I saw it.
Toulon haven’t lost at home in Europe for 2 years, won 11 of 12 home games in the Top 14 last year and have won all 10 top 14 at home so far this season. They haven’t played Toulouse at home yet but beat them at home by a point last year
The Stade Mayol in Toulon on the Mediterranean coast sees Toulon play in a frenetic, cramped and passionate environment without question one of rugby’s bucket list experiences. The stadium itself is the centre-piece of the town. It is deafeningly loud, it’s vibrant and chaotic fun. The home advantage is clear.
Toulon are direct, big and powerful, perhaps they lack the gas around the back three to match the very best in France, but they’re a tough and physical side to beat.
Such is the strength in depth of French rugby that Toulon scrum-half Baptiste Serin isn’t near the national side but is nevertheless a wonderful player and in the likes of Argentine No.8 Facunda Isa and English exile second row David Ribbans they have some terrific forwards.
If Toulon were hosting an absolute full-strength Toulouse in a European tie then the Toulouse -6 where the line opened the week would seem fair enough but minus Dupont they are a way off peak form, down on efficiency and precision without their “Quarterback”. For example last weekend Sale led them 15-10 at half-time. Toulouse pulled away in the second half but lost Capuozzo to a serious looking injury in the second half. The line is now Toulouse -4.5 points.
That said of course you still have Ntamack, Ramos (and his 85% goal-kicking), Kinghorn, Jack Willis and a raft of French International forwards such as Cros and Marchand to contend with, a formidable side.
This should be an extremely close match that could go either way. Getting Toulon at home with a three-point plus start is a bet.
11 points Toulon +4.5 points at Evens Bet365 and 10/11 generally
Rock Bottom
There have been plenty of lows for Wales over the past 18 months, but the 68-14 ten-try rout by England in the final round of the 2025 Six Nations was a record defeat for Wales in the Five or Six Nations and saw a new nadir. It extended their losing run to 17 Tests, which is the longest endured by any Tier 1 team in the professional era.
Wales conceded 25 tries during their five matches in this Six Nations. For context, they conceded just two in Shaun Edwards’ first Championship campaign in 2008.
We’ll come onto the structural reasons for this performance but there are cyclical factors at play too. Over a dozen experienced Welsh internationals, some world class players included, retired in last 24 months leaving a young callow team to take over.
Interim Coach Wayne Sherratt said at the post England game press conference “There are four or five players here we can build a team around. But everyone always looks at the top of the pyramid. The base is where it counts. Any good team has got a good foundation underneath it, which is the age grade. Get the age grade right and then the top of the pyramid will look a lot better. I think there are some green shoots with the U20s, so it’s about trying to nurture that group of players.”
In terms of new appointments Wales will appoint the next permanent Wales head coach and the WRU director of rugby before Wales next play, a Summer tour to Japan.
The game went professional In 1995 and they are still trying to get it right. Time to end the bickering and take decisive action!
Who will the WRU go for as head coach? A quartet of candidates who have been mentioned repeatedly: Glasgow’s Franco Smith, Leicester’s Michael Cheika, Ireland’s Simon Easterby and Bristol’s Pat Lam.
Former Springbok fly-half Smith is favourite. At Glasgow, he has also shown an ability to rapidly implement his game plan with successful outcomes, winning the URC title. He has made no secret of his desire to return to being an international head coach at some point, having previously been at the helm of Italy. The question is whether he might be being lined up to take over the reins with Scotland before too long.
Wales have seven home matches to sell tickets for next season with the autumn Tests and the Six Nations. That is not going to be an easy task on the back of such a poor sequence of results and it will become even harder if the barren spell continues.
Just as important and arguably even more significant for the long term is the identity of the new Director of Rugby. Former Bridgend hooker Huw Bevan, the Union’s interim performance director, appears to be a frontrunner.
Whoever is appointed faces a huge challenge. They have to find a way of putting in place a pathway and a system which produces players who are able to meet the physical demands of Test rugby.
At the moment, Wales just haven’t produced enough young players to compete. They were blown away in the contact area by Scotland for 50 minutes and it was an even worse against England In every physical aspect of the game, whether it be scrum, maul or the collisions, they came second best.
They also struggled in the one-on-one situations, missing 25 tackles against England to add to the 33 they fell off in Edinburgh.
It’s crucial that the new deal between the WRU and the four regions is finally signed off, with a commitment to increased funding over the next few years. Then there are those two big appointments. The new Director of Rugby might decide that four regions is too many, and a side such as the Dragons based in Newport might be vulnerable.
Ultimately the system has to fix the grass roots, develop Academies and create a pathway for young players to develop into the national team. Italy for example have overtaken Wales at the bottom end of the Six Nations, not with too many wins yet but heaps of talent now in the senior national team having come from the Academy system.
Finally Wales need to identify and compete for players with Welsh Qualification playing around the world, something which all Tier one teams do and potentially remove the block on Welsh players playing overseas with less than 25 caps being ineligible for national selection. The player pool left without them is not deep enough for this policy to work as intended.
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated on 8th February 2025. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £68,468 All bets have an ROI +2.71%
A £4000 bank betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £72,468, a 1711% increase.
The Road to Riches Weekend of 5th-6th April (Updated Masters bet)
Coming up this weekend
- Horse Racing, On the flat at Great Yarmouth, over the jumps at Aintree (including the Grand National), Chepstow and Newcastle and on the all-weather at Wolverhampton.
- Football, Premier League fixtures include Manchester United v Manchester City.
- Rugby Union, the Investec Champions Cup last sixteen
- Cricket, the IPL continues
- Formula One, the Japanese Grand Prix
- Golf, The Masters next week at Augusta
- Tennis, ATP Monte Carlo Masters
Free Tip
The 2025 US Masters
Ahead of Neil’s full discussion of the 2025 Masters which will be with us next Wednesday just before the first round next Thursday a look at a contender at a price.
I won’t repeat from previous years the characteristics of Augusta as a course but suffice to say as a major contested on the same track each year, with a limited field of whom a third (winners from a while ago, amateurs etc) are not realistic candidates to win and there are a number of repeatable factors we can take into consideration.
These are from an Oddschecker article:
- 26 of the last 27 winners made the cut the year before the won the Masters
- 15 of the last 17 winners had a finish of 22nd or better in the Masters
- 19 of the last 22 winners were 27 years of age or older
- 14 of the last 16 winners had four wins or more
- 14 of the last 16 winners had a win in the US within two years of winning the Masters
- 57 of the last 60 winners failed to defend their title
- 23 of the last 25 winners came from the top 30 in the world rankings
- 13 of the last 15 winners had a top six finish in a Major in the previous two years
- 15 of the last 16 winners ranked inside the top 50 in Driving Distance before winning
- 24 of the last 27 winners finished 38th or better in the year before winning
Now unsurprisingly a lot of the head of the field can be ticked on virtually every box and no doubt the likes of Scheffler, Rory, Bryson, Schauffele and Aberg will be discussed in Neil’s write-up. Personally I like Aberg at 16-1, runner-up last year on his Masters debut.
I’ve been through the field though, derived a longer odds short-list and from it found a player at 66-1. 2nd in the current FEDEX Cup standings, 13th on the OWGR, has won in the US this year too. He “misses” on one of the list of stats above, which we will come onto, but we aren’t going to find perfection at 66-1. What we do find is a contender outside the top 20 in the market. He is Sepp Straka.
The Austrian has lived in Georgia since he was 14 and has respectable Masters form figures of 30-46-16, never missing the Augusta cut in his three attempts.
Straka finished seventh in the 2023 USPGA and was second in the Open, then played his part in a winning European Ryder Cup side. Second place behind Scheffler in the Hero World Challenge in December 2023 was followed by a quiet spell before his T16 in last year’s Masters.
Following that he had four top ten finishes in 2024 USPGA events, in two of those he led the field in Driving Accuracy Percentage (83.9%) and a Top 25 in the Open too.
In 2025 he has won the American Express and finished in the top 25 in 7 of 10 starts including three top ten finishes.
This is now a form book of good results over two years. He's been able to secure those positive results thanks to his consistent iron play. ranked second in greens in regulation percentage (76.5%) and 11th in strokes gained: approach to green.
He ranks inside the world top 10 in driving accuracy and iron play so far in 2025. This is the combination that led him to rank sixth in driving accuracy, fifth in greens in regulation and eighth in strokes gained tee to green in the 2024 Masters. Recent improvements on and around the greens should improve Straka's chances too.
There is a fly in the ointment of course which is that to date in 2025 he only ranks 142nd in driving distance, always a factor on a long course (especially for example if there is weather and the course is soft). Against this he is second in total driving efficiency this year.
Realistically of course without the prodigious length of some of those at the head of the field he is an each-way rather than a win candidate and the terms on offer are going to be important.
As I write, before casual interest in the Masters ramps up, current each-way odds are uninspiring at six places 1/5th and five places ¼.
Despite the current state of the industry and with marketing departments operating a way off the promotions of a few years ago we should still expect extra places to be available in the days before the event. I’ll put up the current terms but please wait a few days and shop around.
I’ll update with a note next Wednesday. I want the extra places for the column too!
EDIT Tuesday 8th April: Most of the enhanced place terms are out, obviously at the expense of the outright price but extra places are key so updating below as indicated late last week. It's obviously a trade-off places/price: I wouldn't go down to 40/1 10 places (Ladbrokes) or 45/1 12 places (Betfair Sportsbook, as academic as that firm is for getting on)
10 points each-way Sepp Straka to win the Masters at 55/1 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8 Betfred and Bet365, 50/1 William Hill.
Twenty Minutes
The 2025 Six Nations saw three red cards, one more than full red cards shown in 2024, with it being the first major tournament with the 20-minute red card following more stringent safety regulations. With the benefit of knowledge of a post-game citing after the final game of the tournament, Mauvaka the Frech hooker should have received a red-card too. He was subsequently banned for three matches.
Despite the protestations of the lawmakers that permanent reds can still be awarded for serious foul play, it still led to frustration amongst teams and supporters.
In Round three Wales had particular frustration. When Garry Ringrose charged at Ben Thomas with his head up, causing one of those head-on-head collisions that will never be looked at sympathetically by the bunkers, the score was 10-6 to Ireland. By the time Bundee Aki came on to replace the dispatched Ringrose (a recipient of a 20-minute red card can be replaced but not return to the field himself at the end of the period), the score was 18-13 to Wales and it was a well-deserved lead; Ireland looked rattled.
Wales quite clearly had a far better chance of winning that game against 14 men than against 15, never mind the fact that the replacement for the expelled player is a world-class centre who is surely a shoo-in for the Lions this summer. Ireland essentially suffered very little for Ringrose’s indiscretion bar an extra 10 minutes with a man down.
Exactly how egregious does an offence need to be for a red card to be permanent instead of 20-minute anyway? There’s no suggestion that Ringrose was out to nobble Thomas, but at the same time the technique was both aggressive and negligently poor. He was suspended for three weeks (one game suspended for Leinster included a game he would never have been selected for in the middle of a Six Nations) with a remedial trip to tackle school, but the team has not taken one for him at all as a result.
The red cards dished out for head contact have been criticised for being both too stringent and for skewing the balance of games. But officials and TMOs have become much better at picking out poor technique from accidental collisions over the months and seasons; the stringency has become less of a problem than it was.
Skewing games? That’s one argument, there’s another perfectly rational argument that the poor tackle technique from Ringrose should have opened a door for Wales to take advantage, but that the 20-minute red card slammed it shut again. That’s a skewed game too, where a team does not pay the proper price for a player’s misdemeanours.
The bottom line is to stop fudging the issue and focus on getting better at working out what deserves a red card and what does not. Right now we’ve a red card with no red card effect, which does not sit right.
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated on 8th February 2025. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £68,468 All bets have an ROI +2.71%
A £4000 bank betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £72,468, a 1711% increase.
The Road to Riches Weekend of 29th-30th March
Coming up this weekend
- Horse Racing, On the flat at Doncaster over the jumps at Stratford and Uttoxeter and on the all-weather at Kempton and Newcastle.
- Football, FA Cup Quarter Finals.
- Cricket, IPL continues
- Golf, The Texas Open on the USPGA tour
- Tennis, ATP US Clay Court Championships and events in Bucharest and Marrakech.
Aintree Festival
We have added the Aintree Grand National Festival (Full Package) 3rd - 5th April 2025 to the website here
Free Tip
IPL Mumbai Indians at Gujarat Titans 2pm Saturday
Mumbai began as favourites for this year’s IPL having finished bottom of the table last year but lost their first match in Chennai, failing to defend their score of 155.
That game was played on an archetypal Chennai track, slow and spin-friendly pitch a rarity in this year’s IPL, which has been very high scoring.
As I write first innings scores so far this IPL are as follows:
174, 155 (in Chennai), 286 (30 sixes in the match), 209, 245 (32 sixes in the match) and then Rajasthan’s disappointing 151.
There are various reasons why a structural change in IPL scoring is underway (such that it has been widely suggested that we might see a 300+ T20 innings for the first time this competition), though whether scoring is so easy when pitches have become heavily used later in the tournament or elsewhere in more difficult conditions remains to be seen. I’d summarise the reasons are
- Batting conditions are blameless on flat/hard pitches, prepared for the “spectacle” of high scoring.
- Two new white balls per innings introduced as a playing condition: Easier to see and hit
- Player fitness, strength and conditioning advances
- Range hitting techniques being refined and a focus of coaching
- Bat technology advances
The big hitting in the early stages of this season's IPL has been especially obvious in the powerplay where batting teams have looked to absolutely dominate. 23% of the Powerplay overs this season have gone for 16+ runs. The corresponding figure last season was 13%.
54% of balls have a batting “aggressive intent” compared to 32% in 2024, so far its 3.9 balls per boundary compared to 5.8 last year and 9 balls per six compared to 13.7 in 2024.
This match venue, Ahmedabad, is the ground where Gujarat conceded 245 to Punjab Kings and fell 11 runs scored short in a game with over 470 runs scored.
For Mumbai Bumrah is missing, Rohit scored a duck in Chennai but in Boult and Santner especially they have two canny overseas players. They are favourites here as the away side…not too surprising given they are one of the two glamour franchises in the IPL always going to attract public money.
In Gujarat’s first game their batting strength and weakness was clear to see. In Gill, Buttler and Sai Sudharsan they have a strong front three but apart from Rutherford/Phillips in the middle order as the fourth overseas player (Rutherford played the first game) there is not much to get excited about.
I saw quite a bit of Sai Sudharsan in English county cricket in 2023 and 24 when he was recommended to Surrey and slotted into their Championship winning County side for a few games each season.
He’s 23, on the fringes of the India one day sides and a “glue player” in the manner of (but obviously not the overall quality of, yet) a Joe Root/Kane Williamson, a technically correct player that his teams can play around.
In the 2023 IPL Sai scored 362 runs in the tournament averaging 51.71. He scored 96 in the IPL final against Chennai
In IPL 2024, Sai continued his good form and finished as Gujarat’s leading scorer with 527 runs. He scored his first IPL century against CSK, and in the process became the fastest Indian to 1000 IPL runs.
Sai opened in the first game of 2025 against Punjab Kings and top scored with 74. Prices for the first game, where Sai was expected to bat 3, were
Buttler 5/2
Gill 3/1
Sai 7/2+
5/1 Bar
Now it’s slightly frustrating for the purposes of this column, as he’s been the value for Gujarat top bat for two seasons (everyone knows the high profile players last year Gill and Williamson/Miller, this season Gill and Buttler) and now he’s opening and there is the recency bias of his top score prices for the second Gujarat game are:
Gill 2/1
Sai 11/4
Buttler 3/1
5/1 Bar
He’s not favourite though, and I think there is an argument he should be with consistency of performance likely. Guill and Buttler will undoubtedly come off in some games and score heavy, but nevertheless Sai will be occupying the crease and accumulating alongside them.
10 Points Sai Sudharsan top Gujarat Batsman v Mumbai at 11/4 Betfair Sportsbook/Paddy Power and Star Sports, 5/2 BetVictor, 12/5 Bet365.
Rebuild
England have lost 16 of their past 22 ODIs and have lost four bilateral series in a row. Their past three defeats by Australia, Afghanistan and South Africa resulted in an early exit from the Champions Trophy, and their third poor ICC tournament in succession. Understandably Jos Buttler has stepped down as captain. In the past two years, Buttler has averaged 27 in ODIs, well below his own high standards, and his strike rate has dropped, too.
Notwithstanding his dip in form there are deeper reasons at play here, which have made the captaincy job much harder in 50-over cricket than previously was the case.
The dire state the Test team was in at the end of Chris Silverwood’s time in charge meant much of the planning, thinking and effort has fallen on the Test team in the past two years. That has been the main focus. International scheduling, as a result of Covid, which led to T20 World Cups in 2021, 2022 and 2024, meant that much of England’s focus in white-ball cricket has been on the shortest form of the game.
There has been a shift in domestic and commercial priorities, too, towards T20. The biggest problem facing anyone taking over this ODI side is structural and simple: the best limited-overs players in England don't play domestic 50-over cricket. There is no longer a competitive domestic 50-over tournament to speak of. The One-Day Cup is a development competition, played simultaneously with the Hundred. It is why the 50-over competition should be moved to the start of the season, when the best players are all available, bar those in the IPL.
Then there is team selection and tactics. Jamie Smith’s last-minute promotion to No3, for example, was a first for him in 50-over cricket. Only seven matches into an ODI career at the start of this Champions Trophy, he was in an unfamiliar format in an unfamiliar position. Phil Salt (48 50 over games, 276 T20s) looks like a big hitting T20 batsman unable to build an innings in 50-over cricket.
England put all their eggs in the fast-bowling basket. Mark Wood, Jofra Archer, Brydon Carse and Jamie Overton have all conceded more than seven runs an over, and Wood and Carse are now injured.
Nowhere to be seen in the squad was a left-handed seam option (Sam Curran, Reece Topley), no room for the best left arm spinner and good late order bat Liam Dawson, Sam Hain the best domestic 50 over player (career average over 50), not selected.
Rebuilding lies ahead but a huge year of Test cricket approaches, with five matches against India and then the Ashes. It is quite a task to focus on both.
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated on 8th February 2025. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £68,468 All bets have an ROI +2.71%
A £4000 bank betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £72,468, a 1711% increase.
The Road to Riches Weekend of 22nd-23rd March
Coming up this weekend
- Horse Racing, over the jumps at Bangor-on-Dee, Kelso and Newbury and on the all-weather at Newcastle and Wolverhampton
- Football, UEFA Nations League Quarterfinals and World Cup Qualifiers including England v Latvia
- Cricket, the start of the new IPL season
- Motor Racing, the Chinese Grand Prix in Shanghai
- Golf, The Houston Open on the USPGA tour and the Indian Open on the DP World Tour
- Tennis, ATP Miami Open continues
Aintree Festival
We have added the Aintree Grand National Festival (Full Package) 3rd - 5th April 2025 to the website here
Free Tip
2025 IPL
The IPL begins this weekend with the first of 74 matches leading to the final in Kolkota on 25th May.
Defending Champions KKR won last year as 12-1 outsiders. The year before CSK won as 10-1 outsiders having finished bottom in 2022. Looking at last year’s Group stage table, 7 of the 10 teams finished with at least 7 wins with three teams only missing out on the knockout stages on net run rate.
It is so competitive, with each teams having match-winners, that is possible for any team to turn round quickly year-to-year with changes in coaching, draft recruitment, culture and tactics all factors.
Outright prices this year as I write are:
Mumbai Indians 4/1
CSK 5/1
Sunrisers Hyderabad 5/1
KKR 8/1
RCB 9/1
Gujarat 10/1
Lucknow 11/1
Delhi Capitals 11/1
Punjab Kings 11/1
Rajasthan Royals 16/1
Each way terms are of key interest and are 1/3 two places.
Looking at the head of the market first
CSK and Mumbai are the giant franchises of the IPL. Mumbai finished bottom last year with just four wins but are favourites a year later. The odds are impacted by the fact Mumbai have won five titles and boast box office players. However, they have finished bottom in two of the last four years and only made one play-off. With Jasprit Bumrah an injury doubt it isn’t the strongest squad and I want to oppose them at the prices.
CSK have one of the biggest home advantages in the IPL on slow and low pitches in Chennai where their spinners dominate often in low scoring games and begin with three home games in the first four. Last year their spin attack had the best economy rate in the competition. The doubt is whether the batting line up is powerful enough particularly if they reach late in the competition and need to win away from home on a flat pitch in a high scoring game.
Sunrisers were beaten finalists last year and with Travis Head and Heinrich Klaasen leading the way (and Abishek Sharma hit the most sixes in the competition last year) have a high-powered batting line-up. Cummins, Shami and Zampa are the core of the bowling attack but support bowlers are a weakness, which led to one of the worst bowling economy rates last year
KKR’s spinners took 38 wickets last year, 8 ahead of CSK and Sunil Narine was league MVP. The spin attack is all back for 2025. Overseas pace bowling is more of an issue. Starc has left and Anrich Nortje is injured.
Outside the top four I have been searching for turnaround stories and value amongst the outsiders in the market and I alighted on the Delhi Capitals.
Delhi have never won the IPL, finalists in the COVID Competition in the UAE in 2020 is the closes they have come.
Previous Head coach Ricky Ponting has left, which I think might be a positive and with him have gone late career David Warner and fellow Australian Mitch Marsh giving room for more impact overseas recruits. Less positively Risbabh Pant has left and Harry Brook pulled out of the competition recently, though they may get a replacement in.
Looking at the likely first choice XI three of the four overseas players are likely to be in the top six. Australian Jake Fraser-McGurk was the IPL “Striker of the year” in 2024 but after a poor winter needs to rediscover his form. Two South Africans, veteran Faf Du Plessis and current all format international Tristan Stubbs play. If Fraser-McGurk doesn’t rebound Donavan Ferreira, a real hit for the Oval Invincibles in the Hundred last year, is available.
The side features three current Indian 20-50 over players, captain Axar Patel, KL Rahul and left arm spinner Kuldeep Yadav.
In the pace bowling ranks Mitchell Starc, one of great T20 bowlers, has joined supported by veterans Mohit Sharma and T. Natarajan. Natarajan took 18 wickets for the Sunrisers in 2023 and 19 last year.
If they can stay fit, I feel the 10-1+ each way is decent value.
10 points each way Delhi Capitals to win the IPL at 12-1 (1/3 1,2) Betfair Sportsbook, StarSports, 11/1 Bet365, SkyBet, 10/1 widely available IPL
Transition
Manchester City won six of last seven Premier League titles and nine since 2010, but this year languish fifth at the time of writing with eight defeats so far this season and a heavy defeat to Real Madrid in the early part of the Champions league knockout stages
Eternal domination is rare, football works in cycles, but to see City lose their purpose and identity so sharply is quite unusual. Liverpool, who've recalibrated under Arne Slot, are 20 points clear of the mostly immovable object they faced in Jurgen Klopp's time.
An ageing and injury-hit squad have made uncharacteristic mistakes, waning confidence is leading to passive spells and key players are under-performing.
City's malaise is a deep-rooted tactical problem that Pep Guardiola has acknowledged saying "It doesn't work like it worked in the past."
Mentioning Bournemouth and Brighton he said: "Today, modern football is not positional. You have to ride the rhythm."
Attacking quickly after a transition (when possession changes hands) is arguably overtaking Guardiola's philosophy at elite level, with emphasis increasingly placed on direct football that runs deliberately in contrast to possession and territory.
Looking at statistics over the past eight seasons, since Guardiola's first title in England, we can see a clear trend of increases in high turnovers and pressing (passes per defensive action keep coming down season by season) plus fast breaks and direct attacks.
A core principle of Guardiola's philosophy is to compress the shape and stay in set positions, shutting off routes to counter should the ball be lost. To stay rigidly in those positions you need "rest" periods that long periods of possession allow. Without them City are spread out and less organised, hence their new vulnerability to fast breaks and individual errors from panicked defenders pulled out of position.
Defensively City's press has dropped, as has their ability to win the ball high. A less effective press and counter-press means City are worse at stopping fast breaks through the middle with the unmistakable sense that Manchester City can be passive. A high defensive line without pressing effectively, and an ageing central midfield without the peerless Rodri out injured are unable to cover ground to fill the gaps.
The defensive collapse is simple. Their defenders have never been top level when defending in isolation. But they were protected by the team keeping the ball so well. They now no longer circulate possession well enough and this exposes their defensive and physical levels.
There are signs in the recruitment of Marmoush and Nico Gonzalez that Guardiola is evolving again. Gonzalez is a “mini-Rodri” allowing City to squeeze the midfield and set the tempo of play again. When Marmoush plays the ball over the top is used more frequently, and when alongside Haaland that has led to two runners in behind, allowing City to bypass the man-to-man press.
City completed 39 long passes against Newcastle recently, their fourth-highest figure of the campaign and most since early November, while 30% of Ederson's open-play passes were launched long, his second-highest percentage of the season.
Guardiola might already be well on the way to reviving and modernising City's tactics.
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated on 8th February 2025. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £68,468 All bets have an ROI +2.71%
A £4000 bank betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £72,468, a 1711% increase.
The Road to Riches Weekend of 15th-16th March
Coming up this weekend
- Horse Racing, over the jumps at Kempton, Newcastle and Uttoxeter and on the all-weather at Southwell and Wolverhampton
- Football, Premier League fixtures include Arsenal v Chelsea and the Carabao Cup Final Liverpool v Newcastle United
- Rugby Union, the final round of the Six Nations
- Motor Racing, the start of the 2025 season with the Australian Grand Prix
- Golf, The Valspar Championship on the USPGA tour and the Singapore Classic on the DP World Tour
- Tennis, ATP Miami Open
Free Tip
2025 F1 Drivers Championship
The 2025 F1 season starts in Australia the first of 24 races.
Max Verstappen has won four drivers titles in a row, but last season was not as plain sailing as the previous two years in Red Bull’s dominant era. Verstappen won 7 of the first 10 races of the season but only won 2 of the last 14.
In the second half of 2024 season Red Bull was overtaken by McLaren and to an extent Ferrari, in part a function of less wind tunnel development time due to penalties imposed budget cap breaches in prior seasons.
This is the last season before a big regulation change for the 2026 season with smaller, lighter cars and new aerodynamics intended to help closer racing and this year’s cars are iterations of last year’s designs.
Over three days of testing last month in Bahrain lap times 1-2 seconds ahead of last year with McLaren at the head of the field on long run pace/race simulations 0.15-0.2 seconds per lap quicker than Ferrari, Red Bull and Mercedes although its tough to accurately gauge fuel loads for example to know that we are strictly comparing like-for-like. Possibly significantly Red Bull completed the fewest laps of any of the ten teams (304 versus 450+ laps for the teams running the most)
Verstappen has since expressed concerns over how competitive Red Bull can be this year, following Bahrain.
'I don’t think we can fight for the win in Melbourne,' the Dutchman said according to Motorsport.com.
When pressed on who could compete for the title this season, he added: 'At the moment there's only one, and that team is orange (McLaren).'
This is not to say that improvements and development can’t be made during the 2025 season though there is a strong argument that this will be less transformative this year with so much attention within teams and budgets on getting the new 2026 cars right.
For McLaren, who won the Constructors Championship last year with both drivers contributing unlike Red Bull 2024 saw
Lando Norris 3 wins, 6 second places.
Oscar Piastri 2 wins, 4 second places.
For 24-year-old Piastri in his second season in F1 all bar one of these top two results were recorded in the second half of the season.
Odds for this season’s drivers title are as follows:
Norris 13/8
Verstappen 100/30
Le Clerc 9/2
Hamilton 6/1
Piastri 8/1
Bar 16/1
It is the Each way angle that interests me, at 1/5 the odds three places.
Piastri is calm and fast, competitive with Norris on pace and possibly less hot-headed at times in the heat of the action. At worst Driver 1b to Norris’ 1a, and certainly not a second driver to a clear leader as in some other teams. His new contract signed this week locking him in early confirms what many think, a potential world champion in the right car.
He should be a serious contender this year carrying on the consistent form showed in the second half of the year and 7-1 each way appeals for a season-long play
10 points each way Oscar Piastri 8/1 SkyBet, 7/1 Ladbrokes/Coral, William Hill, Bet365, BetVictor.
One-sided
In the recent Australia test series in Sri Lanka Australia won 2-0 with Sri Lanka barely laying a glove on their visitors in two very one-sided games.
The extremely one-sided nature of the Galle Tests is a powerful reminder of the danger a dominant "Big Three" could pose. If Australia, India and England are eventually the only teams with the financial wherewithal to support a viable first-class system, then the gap between the haves and the have-nots in Test cricket will widen at an alarming rate.
There's also a danger if the proliferation of T20 games means cricket becomes purely a power game. If that were to become standard fare, not only would the artistic side of the game be diminished but also the delicate balance between bat and ball could be severely compromised. These are areas that should greatly concern a cricket administrator. However, their main focus is the financial aspects of the game.
The Test debacles in Galle are also a sharp reminder that the combination of improved/bigger bats, fitter/more powerful players and shorter boundaries can provide a fielding captain headaches.
The growing insistence on attacking batting asks the question of a Test bowling attack: can you handle being plundered? Those that cleverly withstand the assault and fight back to claim wickets against batters willing to take a risk are the strongest teams. Australia, with their classy pace attack and skilful spinner, have proved to be one of the better teams at weathering an assault.
Galle was a reminder of how quickly a fielding side can be bullied into submission. Bowlers can't operate efficiently when the field is widespread, and placing a defensive fielder for bad bowling only fosters inaccuracy.
The toughest task for a Test captain is taking 20 wickets. Therefore, having belief in the bowler and his ability to handle positive field placings is paramount in a captain's thinking. This was not the case with Sri Lanka.
The coaching and the balance between bat and ball need to be reviewed if spinners are encouraged to dart the ball into the pitch because of the danger of being easily deposited in the grandstand by a batter.
Despite multiple changes to the game, a hard-fought Test match can provide an enthralling duel between two evenly matched contestants. Test cricket doesn't need more lopsided affairs like the matches in Galle.
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated on 8th February 2025. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £68,468 All bets have an ROI +2.71%
A £4000 bank betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £72,468, a 1711% increase.
