Weekly Articles "Road to Riches" by Rich 'Tighty' Prew
The Road to Riches Weekend of 16th-17th November
Coming up this weekend
- Horse Racing, Over the jumps at Cheltenham, Uttoxeter and Wetherby and on the all-weather at Newcastle and Wolverhampton.
- Football, Nations League matches include England v Republic of Ireland
- Rugby Union, Autumn Internationals include England v South Africa and France v New Zealand
- NFL, Week Eleven
- Cricket, England’s T20 International Series in the West Indies continues
- Golf, the RSM Classic on the USPGA Tour and the Australian PGA Championship on the DP World Tour
- Tennis, Davis Cup Finals
Free Tip
Wales v Australia Autumn International Rugby 4.10pm Sunday
Contrasting fortunes for these sides heading into their second week of four Autumn Internationals. Australia showed significant progress, especially in attack, in beating England 42-37 last week. They appear to have hit the jackpot with Rugby League recruit Joseph Suaa’li’i, man of the match in his first ever union game and the whole team displayed a thrilling combination of running rugby with great off-loads and real strength in the forward pack.
This was very much the green shoots of recovery, a corner turned, but best of all, a return to the way that Australia play rugby at high speed, fearless and with brilliant attacking ambition, after a torrid year during and since the 20-23 Rugby World Cup, in which Wales beat Australia 40-6!).
Australia kept their back-row settled for most of 2024 through some tough results and that has now paid dividends for Australia. The way Fraser McReight and his offload, Harry Wilson and his power and Bobby Valetini and his work-rate pressured England was at the absolute centre of the win. Those three players played an excellent back-row off the park once Tom Curry was injured and England lacked a breakdown player in their back-row. Meanwhile front-rower Angus Bell beat nine players in his carrying effort.
This weekend Harry Wilson is injured so there is an opportunity to bring Will Skelton into the second row and shift Rob Valetini to the back of the scrum.
Australia beat Wales back-to-back in July at home (25-16 and 36-28) and are a better team now and the Welsh slumped to a 10th straight defeat in a 24-19 loss to Fiji last weekend, playing against 14 men. Defeat against Australia this weekend will be a record-losing streak for Wales of 11 successive games.
Wales’ last win was in the the pool phase at last year’s Rugby World Cup in France when they beat Georgia.
After the World Cup there were a slew of retirements and that combined with a shallow regional player pool has led to these difficulties. The young players introduced to Test rugby need patience and time in a losing team. They are showing development but its likely to be a long haul back to competitiveness.
Big picture Welsh rugby is beset by governance and funding problems and has spent 15 years under-investing in pro rugby and development. That has now come home to roost once the exceptional Wyn-Jones, Warburton, Halfpenny, Roberts, Jonathan Davies, Tipuric generation has retired.
Their 23 for this game is particularly inexperienced in the back-line. Bar Anscombe with 38 caps the other 9 backs combined have 45 caps.
20 points Australia -5 points to beat Wales at 10/11 generally available
Precipice
Seven of the 10 English Premiership rugby clubs are balance sheet insolvent, according to an independent financial industry report which has prompted a stark warning that unless the sport embraces change it is “heading for a precipice”.
A comprehensive study analysing the financial sustainability of all the Premiership sides, unveiled by the leading UK corporate recovery and insolvency firm Leonard Curtis, concluded that only three clubs, Leicester, Northampton and Gloucester, would be viable without the backing of wealthy owners and said they must face “some harsh realities”.
The report, which has aggregated the latest publicly available audited figures, says the 10 clubs collectively lost around £30.5m in the year 2022‑23, adding further to an already significant debt burden. Overall the clubs have net debts of £311m, with nine having made losses of more than £1m in the 2022-23 season.
Neither Premiership Rugby nor the Rugby Football Union were involved directly in the report which runs to 67 pages and ranks among the more comprehensive pieces of work on the state of the modern club game in England
The study paints a bleak picture and without more professional management and lower cost bases the game is heading for a very untenable position in the future.
The Premiership has already lost three clubs, Worcester, Wasps and London Irish in recent times and the report warns that falling broadcasting revenue is a “significant worry” for all the remaining clubs.
It also expresses “justifiable concern” over the current debt levels in the league and highlights the widening gap between clubs like Harlequins, who generated the league’s highest revenue figure of £26. 8m, and Newcastle who propped up the list with £11.2m.
In terms of debt, the report has Bristol topping the list to the tune of £60m, with the “best” side in that regard being Exeter with net debts of £15m at the end of 2022-23.
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated on 1st January 2024. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £69,601 All bets have an ROI +2.97%
A £4000 bank betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £73,601, a 1740% increase.
The Road to Riches Weekend of 9th-10th November
Coming up this weekend
- Horse Racing, On the flat at Doncaster, over the jumps at Aintree, Kelso and Wincanton and on the all-weather at Chelmsford City.
- Football, Premier League matches include Chelsea v Arsenal
- Rugby Union, Autumn Internationals include England v Australia
- NFL, Week Ten
- Cricket, England’s T20 International Series in the West Indies continues
- Golf, the Bermuda Championship on the USPGA Tour and the DP World Tour Championship
- Tennis, ATP World Tour Finals
Free Tip
England v Australia Autumn International Rugby 3.10pm Saturday
Australia’s first game of these Autumn Internationals, where relatively new coach Joe Schmidt returns to the Northern Hemisphere for the games after he replaced Eddie Jones.
Schmidt’s first games of a major rebuilding task following the dreadful Rugby World Cup performance, and with the domestic game in some disarray, came in the Rugby Championship in the Summer where Australia finished bottom, winning just one of their six games.
They face a tough task first up at Twickenham. England were 22-14 up on the All Blacks with 20 minutes to go last weekend before fading to lose by two points as their last-minute penalty to win hit the post followed by a drop goal falling wide.
Excluding their win over Japan in Tokyo, that’s now 5 Tests in the past 6 matches that England have been ahead in the second half only to lose, three against New Zealand. Learning how to win close games is yet to come!
A key factor in the narrow defeat was that New Zealand’s bench outplayed England’s. This was noticeable in the front row where England’s supremacy vanished when the front three were replaced after 55 minutes.
England went bold with a 6:2 split against New Zealand, but if anything it backfired. Their replacement forwards simply lost the battle up-front, with the likes of Patrick Tuipulotu running riot in the final stages.
If you can’t use the 6:2 to get dominance back into the game, as the Springboks do with the Bomb Squad, there isn’t really a point in using it. It’s back to 5-3 this week!
It’s also routine to replace a player at 10 for the closing stages of a game but here, with the benefit of hindsight, it was a mistake. Marcus Smith at fly-half was having one of his best games at Test level where he grabbed the game by the scruff of the neck by managing where England was playing really well. He kicked beautifully off the tee and that interception on his line which resulted in a try was a clutch play.
Sadly George Ford, in his first game back from injury, looked rusty and England lost control.
Before that England’s defence had been shown to be vulnerable as the All Blacks scored three tries. England rushing up out of a defensive line brought some benefits but was also exploited by the skills of the All Blacks in the offload.
This weekend of course on paper England face an easier task, they are 11.5-point favourites having been 4-point underdogs last week.
Australia are still honing their squad, and have rugby league convert Joseph Sua’ali’i in this squad for the first time at centre and he’s been picked here, a brave but exciting move, and the very experienced Will Skelton and Samu Kerevi are going to be important inclusions compared to the Rugby Championship side.
With England still working on their defensive style I feel that Australia’s backs will also make inroads and could score tries. The key will be whether their pack can hold on and secure enough ball against Itoje, Martin and co in the tight exchanges.
In the Rugby Championship Australia averaged 35 points a game against, not flattered by conceding nearly 60 in one of the Argentina games.
By the end of the Championship in the two New Zealand games things were slightly more promising though. At home they lost by 3 points conceding 20 and away by 20 conceding 33 points.
If they can hold England to 30 points or less here I like their chances of scoring 20 or so, and therefore suggest that Australia +13, up from +11 as the week began is slightly uncomfortable but nevertheless a value bet.
11 points Australia +13 points at 10/11 widely available
Changes
The Cleveland Browns had yet to score 20 points and reach 300 yards in a game this season, and at 3.8 yards per offensive play, they had the worst offense through seven games of any team since 2018. Their average of 3.8 yards per play was a half-yard behind the juggernaut Titans and Patriots. The Browns offense had scored three touchdowns in its last 16 quarters and 95 points in just six games
Quarterback DeShaun Watson had been sacked 29 times, eight more than any other quarterback across the league, and was completing just 60% of his passes, when he tore his achilles in Week 7 against the Bengals and is now out for the season.
The team had already made an odd decision, if the team was intending to win now, of having second year player Dorian Thompson-Robinson as his backed up over the flawed veteran Jameis Winston who nevertheless has big play potential to spark an offense. DTR then was injured in the same game, so Winston it is!
Watson’s contract made benching him, and ultimately cutting him, difficult to do. He’s making $45m this year, will make $45m fully guaranteed next year, and another $45m fully guaranteed the year after that, with cap hits of $72.9M in both years. They are stuck with his contract.
Meanwhile the Browns are watching the player they picked #1 overall Baker Mayfield play really well for another team while the guy they let him walk for, and paid $250m guaranteed, played very poorly.
Head Coach Kevin Stefanski couldn’t bench him even if he wanted to or make the necessary organisational changes to make significant progress and the ownership was wedded to their sunk-cost of a poor decision.
During the first six weeks of the season an absurd 45% of passes directed at their leading wide receiver Amari Cooper qualified as "off target". We haven't seen an off-target rate that high for a player with 40+ targets since at least prior to 2011. Cooper led the NFL with 473 air yards on incomplete targets this season. He was then traded to the Bills.
The Bills have had their own problems at receiver, their players a hodge-podge of too many guys who can’t win on the outside. Their trade for Cooper potentially fixes that problem and gives the rest of the offense more space, all for a 3rd round draft pick in 2025 and for under $1m in salary cap. For a short-term rental, its solid business.
In 2024 Quarterback Josh Allen has ranked 27th in yards gained on the deep ball having ranked 10th and 4th in the two previous seasons. On paper at least, the Bills and Cooper are a good match.
For the Browns, short term prospects look gloomy, but at least its more draft capital to rebuild next spring.
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated on 1st January 2024. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £69,601 All bets have an ROI +2.97%
A £4000 bank betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £73,601, a 1740% increase.
The Road to Riches Weekend of 2nd-3rd November
Coming Up this weekend
- Horse Racing, On the flat at Newmarket, over the jumps at Ascot, Ayr and Wetherby and on the all-weather at Southwell.
- Football, Premier League matches include Manchester United v Chelsea
- Rugby Union, Autumn Internationals include England v New Zealand
- NFL, Week Nine
- Cricket, England’s One Day International Series in the West Indies continues
- Formula One, the Brazilian Grand Prix
- Golf, the Worldwide Technology Championship on the USPGA Tour and the Abu Dhabi Championship on the DP World Tour
- Tennis, ATP Gijon and Moselle Opens
Free Tip
England v New Zealand 3.10pm Saturday Twickenham
The First weekend of a month of Autumn Internationals. England face New Zealand, Australia and South Africa on successive weekends before ending their Autumn campaign against Japan.
England showed some encouraging signs last season to back up their semi-final finish in the 2023 Rugby World Cup. In the Six Nations they recorded three wins, including a famous victory at home to Ireland, and in their two losses they came really close in the last game in Paris losing 33-31 to France. Overall under Borthwick they have only won 13 of 24 games as he has rebuilt from the dramas of the tail-end of the Eddie Jones era.
What was notable was that towards the end of the Championship the team was attacking well and scoring “flair” tries, a rarity for a few years.
England then travelled for two tests in New Zealand in early summer and lost both games narrowly by one and 7 points and have yet to take the next step of winning the very tight games against the top opponents.
Since the summer there has been upheaval. Defence coach Felix Jones resigned in August and claimed to have made his decision because of an "unstable working environment" whilst head of strength and conditioning Aled Walters has taken up a similar role with Ireland.
Joe El-Abd has taken over the defence while performing his director of rugby duties with Oyonnax until the end of the season and Dan Tobin is in charge of conditioning until Phil Morrow can be prised away from Saracens.
In addition these games will be England’s first experience under trialled rule changes including 20-minute red cards and a time limit on scrum and lineout formations. A full red card will still be shown to players guilty of deliberate and dangerous acts of foul play but the unintentional and accidental collisions will only leave a team short-handed for 20 minutes.
England’s opponents in this series have already been playing under new rules in Rugby Championship, a source of unhappiness for England’s coaches.
The squad for November which sees the injured first-choice half-back Alex Mitchell and and Ben Spencer will play at scrum half and Marcus Smith outside him with the hope that Smith especially will bring out the best of the England backs. Up front second row Ollie Chessum was injured in training camp and misses the whole series, an important loss. Slade and Dombrandt are in the squad despite no domestic play this season through injury.
A refresher on the All Blacks where the Internatrional game has faced player departures to France and Japan led by the finances on offer, the retirements of key players such as Retallick and Whitelock (with Same Cane to follow at the end of the year) and a new coaching team in place led by Scott Robertson who lead the all-conquering Crusaders in Super Rugby for many years.
After the England matches Robertson’s first Rugby Championship game saw a shock loss at home to Argentina, ending in second place losing both games to champions South Africa.
New Zealand’s back line is as threatening as ever but beyond the first choice pack the defections and retirements temporarily leave the All Black squad lacking experienced depth, which has been an issue late in a number of games this year where performance has fallen away after substitutions.
In this squad three players who were initially named are now unavailable: Ethan Blackadder, Luke Jacobson and Dalton Papali’i have all been ruled out for calf, thumb and hamstring injuries respectively.
They warmed up with a 64-19 win in Japan last weekend in which most first choice players were rested.
I would expect this to be a close game and am not surprised to see the sides priced New Zealand 4/7 and England 6/4 consistent with recent results, though England now have home advantage. New Zealand are -4 on the handicap, a line that has moved from -2.5 this week. After that line move above ther key 3 point mark I'm on England with the spread.
11 points England +4 points at 10/11 widely available
Jetting off
After Week 3 of the NFL season the New York Jets moved to 2-1. The offense looked sharp and Quarterback Aaron Rodgers looked healthy. Two games later, the Jets were 2-3 and owner Woody Johnson fired coach Robert Saleh.
The timing made little sense, especially with the upcoming Monday night visit from the 3-2 Bills in a key divisional game. Win that and win Week 7 at Pittsburgh, and the Jets would be 4-3 and in contention to win the division.
Salah was hired in 2021 and took a a 2-14 team that was -214 in points differential the season before to a competitive position. The Jets went “all in” on a veteran Quarterback but unfortunately the offense still isn’t working consistently.
Salah though is from a defensive background and through his tenure the Jets defense has been very strong. Since the 2021 season the Jets defense is 1st in points per drive, 1st in Expected points added per play and 3rd in success rate despite playing the fourth-most snaps over that stretch due to the ineffectiveness of the offense.
Under offensive co-ordinator Nathaniel Hackett, Aaron Rodgers’man, the offense was never solved though. The Jets owner considered the roster ready to compete now but this season they are 23rd in EPA per play and 21st in drop back success rate. The Jets need a total offensive overhaul and that's not feasible mid-season. The very talented running back Breece Hall is under-performing and the on-field relationship between Rodgers and top wide receiver Garrett Wilson is yet to mesh.
It’s far from clear how promoting a defensive co-ordinator to Head coach helps the offensive situation and onlookers are left thinking that Rodgers has got what he wanted, the people around him he wants but no long term solutions yet.
Big picture, the Jets haven't had a head coach finish their tenure with a winning percentage above 50% since 2000, as long term mediocrity continues.
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated on 1st January 2024. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £69,601 All bets have an ROI +2.97%
A £4000 bank betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £73,601, a 1740% increase.
The Road to Riches Weekend of 26th-27th October
Coming up this weekend
- Horse Racing, On the flat at Ascot and Catterick, over the jumps at Newton Abbot and Stratford and on the all-weather at Wolverhampton.
- Football, Premier League matches include Arsenal v Liverpool
- NFL, Week Eight
- Cricket, England’s White Ball tour of the West Indies begins next week
- Formula One, the Mexican Grand Prix
- Tennis, ATP Rolex Paris Masters
Free Tip
Mexico Grand Prix, Sunday 7pm
Five races to go in the 2024 F1 season and Verstappen goes into the final stages of the season 57 points ahead of Lando Norris despite having not won a race since Spain 10 races ago. This is a measure of his domination in the first part of the season and secondly the extent to which upgrades at McLaren have caught them up as the season has progressed.
Since Verstappen’s last win there have been five different winners from three different teams and McLaren have won four races, two each for Norris and Piastri.
As well as the steady McLaren upgrades and Ferrari continuing to be competitive Red Bull have been hamstrung by wind-tunnel use restrictions imposed prior to the start of the season because of cost cap breaches.
As they head to Mexico, just 48 points cover McLaren, Red Bull, and Ferrari in the Constructors' Championship and that's going to be exciting and tense in the closing stages, given both cars can score points in each team. Mexico’s circuit is characterised by very long straights and one slow stadium section at the end of the lap.
As Norris qualified on pole in Austin last weekend he’ll be a favourite this time too, albeit a poor start left him in fourth place, where he finished following a penalty when overtaking Verstappen late in the race.
The head of the market for the race sees LeClerc, Verstappen and Norris 11/4 each of three.
Leclerc won Monza and since then perhaps should have won Baku, underperformed his and the car's potential in Singapore, but has been very strong of late and its understandable he’s at least joint favourite and the market is a change from races late summer when Norris was clear favourite and reflecting Ferrari’s two wins since. However McLaren have won 3 of the last 5 and Norris too.
13 points Lando Norris to win the Mexico Grand Prix with William Hill
Southern Braves.
Rod Bransgrove the pharmaceutics entrepreneur who bankrolled Hampshire’s move to their new ground in 2001 and who owns more than 60% of the shares in Hampshire Cricket has sold a controlling stake in the county club to GMR Group, owner of the IPL franchise Delhi Capitals and other teams around the world for a reported £120m.
Hampshire have just finished second in the county championship, to go with near misses the previous two years. With a bit of investment, one or two new players and some improvements the very flat pitch at the Utilita Bowl they could be a genuine threat to Surrey’s dominance and achieve their first title since 1973 and become a proper cricketing powerhouse. Hampshire’s female counterparts, the Southern Vipers, are already that and with a strong following.
There will be player swaps. Hampshire’s young talent could get fast-tracked into GMR’s other franchise teams (eg in UAE, US, and South Africa) and Delhi players might be loaned to Hampshire. Sourav Ganguly, a director of GMR, could persuade Rishabh Pant to make some guest appearances in England for example. Both parties will use their fanbases to broaden engagement and reach and share sponsors. The deal gives Delhi Capitals a proper presence in the UK.
GMR are buying a stadium, and the land and property around it. There is a hotel, a restaurant, entertainment spaces and a golf course, and room for more development on the outskirts of Southampton. It is suitable to host events of all kinds not just international cricket matches (the venue will stage its first ever Ashes Test in 2027) but exhibition games (presumably featuring the Delhi Capitals and GMR’s other teams), golf tournaments, concerts, banquets, conferences and exhibitions etc.
The Utilita Bowl should become the best outdoor facility in that populous corridor all along the south coast from Sussex to Dorset.
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated on 1st January 2024. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £69,601 All bets have an ROI +2.97%
A £4000 bank betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £73,601, a 1740% increase.
The Road to Riches Weekend of 19th-20th October
Coming up this weekend
- Horse Racing, On the flat at Ascot and Catterick, over the jumps at Newton Abbot and Stratford and on the all-weather at Wolverhampton.
- Football, Premier League matches include Liverpool v Chelsea
- NFL, Week Seven of the new season including New England Patriots at Jacksonville Jaguars at Wembley Stadium.
- Cricket, England’s Test Series continues in Pakistan with the third Test in Rawalpindi
- Formula One, the US Grand Prix in Austin
- Golf, The ZOZO Championship on the USPGA Tour and Genesis Championship in Korea on the DP World Tour.
- Tennis, ATP Erste Bank and Basel Opens.
Free Tip
Gallagher Premiership Rugby
Bristol v Saracens Saturday 3.05pm
Four rounds into the season and the two two in the early league table meet at Ashtonm Gate. Both teams have three wins and a loss, with Bristol a point ahead of Saracens on bonus points won.
Following on from their fast-attacking approach of previous seasons, which didn’t always lead to wins it has to be said, Bristol have been prolific this season to date scoring 41,24,40 and 36 points the 36 points in a 5 try underdog win at Bath last weekend where a fast start saw them 19 points ahead and eventually winning by 10.
That result might have flattered them, Bath put in an error-strewn performance but full credit for the result of the season so far.
Bristol lost 41-44 Glouc beat Newcastle, Exeter and Bath away 41 24 40 36 points 5 tries 19 ahead. Bath error strewn performance.
In their first season following the departure of Owen Farrell to France there is a faint air of rebuilding about Saracens as young players begin to find their way into the first team. That said they can still field a team full of internationals with Daly, George, Earl, Itoje etc and are a really tough nut to crack in defence.
So far they’ve beaten Sale, Gloucester and Exeter, their one reverse coming in a 178-10 loss to Harlequins, the one game they’ve not put up points (45,35,29 in the three other games)
Odds for this game are interesting. Saracens are 2.5-point favourites and 4/6 outright, Bristol 5/4+. First thing to do was check the weather, Saracens would be favoured by tough conditions but my apps tell me dry with some sun on Saturday, so all set fair for Bristol’s running rugby.
It’s about time I had a rugby winner (Northampton resting players for a local derby in Leicester last weekend, public after I went live, was not on the agenda). The home underdog will do me here, outright
10 points Bristol Bears to win at 7/5 William Hill, 13/10 Coral/Ladbrokes
Crowded House.
There will be no meaningful reduction in the volume of men's county cricket played in 2025, despite more than 80% of players reporting fears for their physical health due to the busy schedule.
A Professional Cricketers' Association (PCA) survey at the start of this season found that the majority of players believe the schedule is not fit for purpose but next season each county will still play a minimum of 14 matches in the County Championship, eight in the Metro Bank Cup and 14 in the Vitality T20 Blast.
The PCA are still pushing for changes which would see T20 fixtures more spread out across a week to reduce the number of tight turnarounds, and for uniform three-day gaps between Championship matches.
It feels that the Blast was scheduled through a commercial lens, trying to squeeze as many games as possible into Thursday, Friday and Sunday. Utilising the majority of the week is probably the way forward, trying to spread them out to give that time for recovery, travel and preparation.
The main point of discussion for the 2025 schedule has been around the T20 Blast, and when the knockout stages should be held. In 2023, they took place straight after the group stages in July, allowing counties to keep hold of their overseas playe. This year they took place in mid-September.
This year's Blast schedule was described as "ridiculous" by Kent's T20 captain Sam Billings, who said that staging the final two months after the group stages "just does not make sense". If it remains in September next year it will overlap with England's white-ball series against South Africa.
The ECB has announced England’s international fixtures for 2025 with incoming men's tours from Zimbabwe, India, West Indies and South Africa. The Hundred will be played in August, starting immediately after the fifth Test against India and running until the end of the month.
Of course the fact that the Hundred blocks out August is the essential problem, we have one too many tournament for the months available, marginalising the 50 over competition and reducing the profile of the Blast final weekend.
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated on 1st January 2024. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £69,601 All bets have an ROI +2.97%
A £4000 bank betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £73,601, a 1740% increase.
