Weekly Articles "Road to Riches" by Rich 'Tighty' Prew

The Road to Riches Weekend of 21st-22nd December

Posted on 19 Dec 2024 11:03 in Weekly Articles "Road to Riches" by Rich 'Tighty' Prew

Please note, the column will return for the weekend of 4-5th January. Happy Christmas and New Year to all our readers.

Coming up this weekend

  • Horse Racing, Over the jumps at Ascot, Haydock and Hereford and on the all-weather at Newcastle and Wolverhampton.
  • Football, Premier League matches include Aston Villa v Manchester City and Tottenham v Liverpool
  • NFL, Week Sixteen
  • Cricket, the fourth test between Australia and India in Melbourne from Boxing Day.

Free Tip

Gallagher premiership Rugby Leicester v Bristol Saturday 3.05pm

After the first two rounds of the European Champions Cup, the teams return to domestic action for the rest of the month and this game sees 3rd placed Leicester host 2nd placed Bristol, both with 5 wins and 2 losses in 7 games, the Bears ahead on more bonus points scored.

No Premiership defence has stopped Bristol, who attack from anywhere, this season.

These are the points scored by game, first to latest game

24,41,36,40, 35,31,48

That’s 255 points at 36ppg

However the recent experience in the ERCC was very different. Both Leinster in Round 1 and La Rochelle in Round 2, European Super-powers with squads above anything they’ll see domestically restricted them to 12 and 7 points respectively and beat them comfortably. Bristol still attempted to attack from everywhere but on each occasion were in trouble up front and therefore lacking a stable platform to play from.

Leicester meanwhile still have their traditional strengths in defence and the tight forwards. Indeed in Michael Cheika’s first seven games as Head coach Leicester have the tightest defense in the Premiership allowing just 21ppg.

Leicester have had a very different European experience so far this season, scoring 28 points and a losing bonus point in Bordeaux and then thrashing an under-strength Sharks side last weekend when they themselves were back at full strength after the Autumn Internationals.

However can they be the first Premiership side to restrict Bristol this season? I think it’s unlikely that Bristol will be kept below 25 points (light rain is expected, so worth keeping an eye on the forecast, but nothing too troubling at this stage) and with the spread currently Leicester -7.5 points Leicester would need to be above 32 points to cover.

However Leicester have only scored 184 points this season, or 26ppg, the lowest actual and average scoring of the top five teams. 32 points plus seems optimistic.

11 points Bristol +7.5 points at 10/11 generally available.


Socialism in sport!

In watching the most prominent matchup of the 2024 NFL season a few weeks ago it occurred to me that this kind of A-list battle could not happen in most other US professional sports leagues, especially baseball. Usually, market size matters but not in the NFL.

The Buffalo Bills and Kansas City Chiefs, who played in the matchup of the year that delivered the Chiefs’ first loss in front of 32m US viewers a few weeks ago represent two of the smallest markets in all of US professional sport, let alone the NFL. Plus this year in the NFL, the two New York teams are abysmal, yet the league has not suffered. The Packers, playing in a market of just 100,000 people, continue to thrive.

There are several reasons for this, but the two primary pillars are equal sharing of national revenue, primarily media revenue, and a restrictive salary cap. These fundamental tenets of competitive balance level the financial playing field in a way that has been instrumental to the NFL’s unrivaled prosperity and popularity.

Yes, other leagues have salary caps and revenue sharing, but no other league has both pillars to the extent of the NFL. And this “socialistic” business model is clearly working.


Betting Emporium results

The detailed results page has been updated on 1st September 2024. They can be found by clicking RESULTS

If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £66,502 All bets have an ROI +2.75%

A £4000 bank betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £70,650, a 1666% increase.

 

The Road to Riches Weekend of 14th-15th December

Posted on 12 Dec 2024 10:51 in Weekly Articles "Road to Riches" by Rich 'Tighty' Prew

Coming up this weekend

  • Horse Racing, Over the jumps at Cheltenham, Doncaster and Newcastle and on the all-weather at Southwell and Wolverhampton.
  • Football, Premier League matches include Manchester City v Manchester United
  • Rugby Union, the Investec Champions Cup continues
  • NFL, Week Fifteen
  • Cricket, the third Test between Australia and India in Brisbane and the start of the 24-25 Big Bash League.
  • Golf, the Mauritius Open on the DP World Tour

Free Tip

Champions cup Rugby round 2 Pool 1 Leicester v Sharks 5.30pm Saturday

The Durban-based Sharks qualified for the tournament through their Challenge Cup win last year, the first time a South African side had won a European title, and began Pool 1 last week with a 39-21 home win against Exeter, scoring some thrilling tries, including four in a twenty minute spell, in great conditions. Discipline was a problem Discipline with three yellow cards and 19 penalties conceded.

At full strength this is a formidable team, particularly up front where a fierce pack can include Springbok World Cup winners Nche, Mbonambi, Nyakane, Etzebeth and Kolisi. Meanwhile Esterhuizen, Mapimpi and Hendrikse are in an exciting back-line.

So why are they up as 10.5-point underdogs to a Gallagher Premiership team? The issue is the short turn-around between games, the amount of travel involved and team rotation. Essentially South African teams three years into their Champions Cup inclusion have to pick and choose which games to go all out in, and which to try and get by in because of the logistics involved. They aren’t given blocks of games at home then blocks away which might help. They have a growing injury list too with Ebzebeth, Kock, Am, Venter and Tshituka all out. In facgt no less than 15 players including 12 starters from last weekend are listed as out because of "Injury and Recovery"

The issue can be seen in the performance season to date in the URC where they have played 18 games, the vast majority without their current Springboks playing first in the Rugby Championship and then on the Autumn Northern Hemisphere tour and have won just 4 games.

Leicester rested most of their current internationals in Bordeaux last weekend, a game immediately after the Autumn Internationals. They led at half time and ended with a four-try bonus point in a 42-28 loss. The big guns are all back here: Montoya, Martin, Cole, Reffell and Pollard included. Under new Australian coach Michael Cheika they’ve had an encouraging start to the season, 3rd in the Premiership with 5 wins from 7 games and in the midst of an expansion of their game plans to bolt on more creative flair onto their traditionally strong forwards and kicking game. It doesn’t get much easier from here for Leicester with Ulster and Toulouse coming up in the Pool after this game.

11 points Leicester -10 points at 10/11 generally


A thorny problem

After their 3-0 drubbing at home to New Zealand, Indian cricket fans needed some good news.

As India prepared for a resumption of eagerly-awaited hostilities in Australia, the series is 1-1 headed into this week’s third test, it should not be overlooked that their board are still in dispute with Pakistan over plans for the Champions Trophy in February. The BCCI have told the ICC that the Indian team won’t play any Champions Trophy matches in Pakistan.

The options are these:

1.        India forfeit their place in the tournament

2.        The matches involving India are shifted to UAE.

3.        The tournament is shifted to UAE (or elsewhere.)

There are precedents. In last year’s Asia Cup hosted in Pakistan and Sri Lanka for example, India played all their matches (including the final) in Sri Lanka. But that was in the original schedule (arranged between the Asia Cup nations.) The problem with this 2025 Champions Trophy is it’s an ICC event and the semis and final are all rightly scheduled in Pakistan where they have rebuilt stadiums for this exact purpose. If India refuse to play any matches in Pakistan, it means there will need to be two alternative venues for semis and final in the event that India qualify for them.  

In the end it’s all about money. Disney-Star recently paid an estimated $3billion for the rights to show (in India) all ICC tournaments from 2024-2027. That consists mainly of two men’s T20 World Cups (2024 and 2026), next year’s Champions Trophy and the 2027 ODI World Cup. So one can assume each tournament is worth say $500-$800m from Star to the ICC. If India don’t play, presumably that ICC revenue will be forfeited too. As that money is shared around the global game, everyone loses.


Betting Emporium results

The detailed results page has been updated on 1st September 2024. They can be found by clicking RESULTS

If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £66,502 All bets have an ROI +2.75%

A £4000 bank betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £70,650, a 1666% increase.

The Road to Riches Weekend of 7th-8th December

Posted on 5 Dec 2024 10:42 in Weekly Articles "Road to Riches" by Rich 'Tighty' Prew

Coming up this weekend

  • Horse Racing, Over the jumps at Aintree, Chepstow, Sandown and Wetherby and on the all-weather at Wolverhampton.
  • Football, Premier League matches include Everton v Liverpool and Tottenham v Chelsea
  • Rugby Union, the start of the Investec European Champions Cup
  • NFL, Week Fourteen
  • Formula One, the Abu Dhabi Grand Prix to finish the season
  • Cricket, England’s Test Series in New Zealand concludes next week with the third test in Hamilton
  • Golf, the Grant Thornton Invitational on the USPGA and the Alfred Dunhill Championship on the DP World Tour

 


PDC Darts World Championships - FREE Outright Preview with Bets and What to Expect...

You know it's nearly Christmas when the PDC draw comes out!

In the 2024 Darts Season (includes 2024 World Champs) finalised at 28 events covered, 5866pts advised for +371 units across 601 bets. 6.3% profit. All Stattobets darts - bet total points 17632 profit +1138.70 ROI + 6.46%. Last year the World Champs returned a massive 44% profit!

 'Stattobets Dave' has written a FREE PDC World Darts preview with outright bets and details of what to expect.

 Read it here


 

Free Tip

European Rugby Champions Cup Round 1

Bristol v Leinster Pool 2 5.30pm Sunday

A cracker to begin the competition for these two and end the first weekend’s matches late on Sunday afternoon.

Bristol are second in the Gallagher Premiership only to Bath on bonus points scored whilst Leinster are top of the United Rugby Championship with 7 wins from 7 games.

Leinster are runners-up in this competition for each of the last three years, each time tossing to a French side and are URC Champions in six of the last 7 years. They are going to be a formidable opponent for every side in this Pool and very well could field an all-current international side (including 1o of the side who beat Australia last weekend), 14 Irishmen plus new recruit New Zealander Jordie Barrett. They are major beneficiary not just of Dublin’s catchment area for Irish players but the Academy pathways established over many years by the IRFU.

In defense this season in 7 URC games they’ve only conceded 92 points or 13 points per game.

Bristol meanwhile have scored 255 points or 36 points per game in the English domestic league and come to this game fresh off a thrilling 48-24 win at Harlequins, their ninth successive away win, in a game described as “one of the greatest displays of attacking rugby the league has seen”. Data showed Bristol made 30 line-breaks at Harlequins. It might take a less cavalier team five or six matches to amass that many and Bristol were playing one of the hitherto best defences in the Premiership. They are brilliantly coached in attack with offloads and intricate moves and a licence to play.

This contest sees Leinster 10-point favourites and Bristol 3/1 outright. I expect Leinster with their huge experience and defensive skill to win, but 10-points seems a lot for a home underdog going so well. I think it will be closer than that

11 points Bristol +10 points at 10/11 widely available


Forest

Nottingham Forest are fifth in the Premier League table. Might they have been even higher had they not been forced to sell Brennan Johnson to Tottenham Hotspur in the last transfer window?

Forest did not need to sell but had to comply with PSR rules. Evangelos Marinakis the owner wasn’t allowed to finance the club that with his own wealth, even though Johnson was an obvious asset.

The right recruitment is as important as selecting the right manager, or the right tactics. The difference being that the league does not rule on those choices. Yet Forest had to sell Johnson to meet a calculation of what made the club sustainable. When they delayed the sale to get a better price out of Tottenham it resulted in a points deduction

Tottenham’s first offer was £30m but they went low because it was common knowledge Forest were struggling with thei rPSR calculations. Forest held out for £47.5m but missed the accountancy deadline. The Premier League punished them for making a further £17.5m profit.

This season Forest have occupied their highest league position since September 1998 and are the only club to win in any competition against league leaders Liverpool this season. Forest went to Anfield on September 14, kept a clean sheet also unique against Liverpool this season and won. Some tough matches recently have seen losses to Arsenal and Manchester City.

 The argument is that if there were no regulations around profitability and sustainability or financial fair play, Manchester City would just win the league every year. What PSR stops is the likes of Forest, or Brighton, or even Brentford, getting too good. And Newcastle United. Alexander Isak is mentioned as the striker Arsenal manager Mikel Arteta has his eyes on to bolster his forward line and relieve Kai Havertz. Yet why should a club that is backed by the wealth of Saudi Arabia have to sell their best goal-scorer to Arsenal?

It’s because profitability and sustainability requires Newcastle to pretend they are poor. It keeps them exactly where the elite wants them: tenth, at present, so that their finest players become frustrated and wish to leave. And where would they go? To the established elite, the ones who shape the rules to ensure they stay at the top unless an upstart disruptor such as Nottingham Forest comes along and spoils it. Newcastle, like Forest before them, may need to sell so they can buy. Yet selling could strengthen a rival, so the impact of buying has a diminished effect.

Aston Villa, meanwhile, have dropped four points in three home league games that have followed their Champions League matches this season. Might they have fared better and made this season more competitive had they not had to sell players to meet the artificial construct of PSR in the summer? Villa are not in financial jeopardy. Indeed reaching the Champions League invariably necessitates squad improvements. Instead, Villa had to sell. As a result, the demand on their squad is greater and their league form is not what it could be.

This is a good title race but it could be a better one. Newcastle should be in it, even Manchester United if Ineos was allowed to finance the change required. Aston Villa should be stronger, Nottingham Forest should be able to stay the course, maybe even Brighton, too.

Beyond this season, we should have the most competitive, strong and open league in the world. Whatever the verdict after the 115 charges have been heard, Manchester City look to be nearing the end of their period of dominance.


Betting Emporium results

The detailed results page has been updated on 1st September 2024. They can be found by clicking RESULTS

If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £66,502 All bets have an ROI +2.75%

A £4000 bank betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £70,650, a 1666% increase.

 

The Road to Riches Weekend of 30th November -1st December

Posted on 27 Nov 2024 10:39 in Weekly Articles "Road to Riches" by Rich 'Tighty' Prew

Coming up this weekend:

  • Horse Racing, Over the jumps at Bangor, Doncaster, Newbury and Newcastle.
  • Football, Premier League matches include Liverpool v Manchester City
  • Rugby Union, Autumn Internationals include Ireland v Australia
  • NFL, Week Thirteen
  • Formula One, the Qatar Grand Prix
  • Cricket, England’s Test Series in New Zealand continues next week with the second test in Wellington
  • Golf, the Hero World Challenge on the USPGA and the Nedbank Golf Challenge on the DP World Tour

PDC Darts World Championships - FREE Outright Preview with Bets and What to Expect...

You know it's nearly Christmas when the PDC draw comes out!

In the 2024 Darts Season (includes 2024 World Champs) finalised at 28 events covered, 5866pts advised for +371 units across 601 bets. 6.3% profit. All Stattobets darts - bet total points 17632 profit +1138.70 ROI + 6.46%. Last year the World Champs returned a massive 44% profit!

 

'Stattobets Dave' has written a FREE PDC World Darts preview with outright bets and details of what to expect.

 

Read it here

 


Free Tip

2024-2025 Champions cup Rugby ante post.

The 11th season of the European Rugby Champions Cup begins next weekend for the top club teams from the Tier One European nations plus for the third year the best South African provinces. Defending Champions are Toulouse who beat Leinster 31-22 in the final at Spurs in May. The final this year is in Cardiff.

The format of the competition has been through various iterations either side of and during the COVID disruption.

This season the 24 teams are again split into four groups of 6 played as a modified round robin. Each pool has two teams from each of the three contributing leagues (England, France and the URC) . Each team plays the four teams not from its own league once, with one game away to each league and one game at home. Teams do not play their league partners at this stage. The top four teams go to the first knock out round/last sixteen, where the top two teams in each group are given home advantage.

This year has, as is often the case, thrown up one particularly tough pool. Pool A has Toulouse, Bordeaux, Exeter, Leicester, Sharks and Ulster.

Disparities between the domestic games in each of the participating countries are wide in terms of league salary caps and therefore squad recruitment and depth. The best French sides and Leinster are clear favourites and this is reflected in the current ante-post market:

Toulouse 15/8

Leinster 5/2

La Rochelle 7/1

Bordeaux 8/1

Bar 14/1

The South African sides the Bulls, Sharks and Stormers are a conundrum as they find their way in this competition. At home (especially the Bulls, at altitude in Pretoria) they are a formidable prospect but the challenges of the distance to European fixtures, travelling thousands of miles for matches a few days after the last home game, have often meant that they’ve had to pick their poison and decide which games to rotate for. They’ve often chosen the away matches.

The Bulls at 14/1 are the favoured South African side in the markets ahead of the top English side Saracens at 20/1. Were the winner to come from outside the top four teams though, it would be a big shock in a tournament where these are rare by the time the knock-out stages are played after the Six Nations.

As this is a market that plays out until next May I am going to suggest an alternative to Toulouse at under 2/1.

Toulouse are currently top of the French top 14 after ten games, having won 7. Two points behind them also with 7 wins are Bordeaux-Begles (UBB).

Bordeaux are, even by the standards of the wealthy French sides, well-funded by their entrepreneur owner and that’s led to a several year recruitment drive of some of the top domestic talent. For example UBB is the home of Jalibert, Bielle-Biarrey, Depoortere, Moefana and Penaud of the Frfench national side back division and the team often wins high-scoring exciting games. A particularly tough prospect to play at home in front of a very partisan crowd, though they lost 41-42 to Quins in the Quarter-Final of last year’s competition, a big surprise for a side who’d beaten Saracens 45-12 the week before. Before that their only loss was 46-40 to the Bulls in Pretoria.

They are a better team this year and at 7/1 I’d anticipate them finishing top two in their pool, starting the knockj-outs at home and going from there.

10 points each-way (1/3, 2 places) Bordeaux-Begles to win the ERCC at 8/1 Ladbrokes/Corals, 13/2 Bet365 and BetVictor


Overboard

Is 2024 the “Year of the Running Back” in the NFL? Two factors in particular stand out. Running back value relative to their compensation and the age and experience of many of the league's most productive backs.

In recent years a narrative regarding running backs had emerged to the point that it felt like a consensus had been decided regarding their fate. The NFL had seemingly decided that running backs were fungible and that it didn’t make sense to pay them significant money on second or third contracts when you could simply draft a younger, cheaper, healthier alternative at one of the most physically grueling and thus injury-riddled positions in the sport.  

The free agent market became so grim in 2023 that there was even talk of running backs having their own union. There had been a rash of second contracts among star running backs like Todd Gurley, David Johnson, Ezekiel Elliott, and others that had worked out horribly for their respective teams, handing out big guarantees in exchange for little production.

The market for running backs had become so bad that some teams started to realise that the position's difference-makers had become undervalued. When free agency started, they decided to capitalise.

The Eagles for example gave Saquon Barkley a three-year deal that guaranteed him $26m.Barkley has been a difference maker for the 9-2 Eagles this year, averaging almost six yards per carry, and he is now leads the NFL in rushing yards. He needs to average 119 rushing yards over his final six games (714 total) in order to pass Eric Dickerson's single season rushing record. He's averaging 127 yards per game this season.

Barkley is doing this in Year 7 in the NFL. At a time when most people expect runners like Barkley to start to decline, he is as explosive as ever,

Barkley makes 53% of what Colts receiver Michael Pittman earns annually. Barkley makes $10m less per year than Titans receiver Calvin Ridley. The market was and probably still is wrong and in need of correction, and the Eagles were one of the first teams to correctly identify that via their pursuit of Barkley. That said, they weren’t the only ones.

Derrick Henry is another prime example. He is near the top of the NFL in almost every rushing category at age 30. He is doing it for $8m a year, which means he makes 33% of what receivers like DK Metcalf and Texans Nico Collins make.  

There’s a reason why the Saints just gave their star running back, Alvin Kamara, a two-year contract extension that represents his third contract with the franchise. Or that the Packers pounced on the chance to give Josh Jacobs a deal that pays him $12m per year on a second contract after five years with the Raiders. Or even the Texans getting tremendous value at $8.5m per year out of Joe Mixon on his third NFL contract. What about James Conner and his impact on the Cardinals this season at age 29 in his eighth NFL season?

While Barkley and Henry are certainly the headliners, “older” backs like Kamara, Jacobs and Mixon are all in the top 10 in the NFL in rushing with more than 780 yards already.

The point is that the narratives regarding running backs as they relate to their age and value have gone way overboard, and the players mentioned above and others have proven that so far this year

 


Betting Emporium results

The detailed results page has been updated on 1st January 2024. They can be found by clicking RESULTS

If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £69,601 All bets have an ROI +2.97%

A £4000 bank betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £73,601, a 1740% increase.

The Road to Riches Weekend of 23rd-24th November

Posted on 21 Nov 2024 08:37 in Weekly Articles "Road to Riches" by Rich 'Tighty' Prew

Coming up this weekend

  • Horse Racing, Over the jumps at Ascot, Haydock and Huntingdon and on the all-weather at Newcastle and Wolverhampton.
  • Football, Premier League matches include Manchester City v Tottenham
  • Rugby Union, Autumn Internationals include Wales v South Africa and Scotland v Australia
  • NFL, Week Twelve
  • Formula One, the Las Vegas Grand Prix
  • Cricket, England’s Test Series in New Zealand continues next week with the first test in Christchurch
  • Golf, the Australian Open on the DP World Tour

Free Tip

Scotland v Australia Autumn International Rugby 1.40pm Sunday

Australia came into the autumn largely written off after a bleak Rugby Championship, but they have taken big strides forward in the turn-around under new coach Joe Schmidt playing great attacking rugby. The increased time the squad have spent together this tour has clearly aided with the on-pitch connections, which has really helped them move up a gear or three.

On the pitch, they have developed their game plan to bring in their explosive back-three, but it’s come from typical Schmidt-esque play that made Ireland such a force in his tenure there. On the whole, it’s pretty simple even with some nice flashes of flair thrown, but it’s incredibly effective.

Schmidt has also got the pack firing too, particularly in the scrum, which has contributed to their overall improvement. It’s been a number of years since Australia had that foundation from which to play, and against opposition not of the same standard that they faced in the early stages of his management in the summer they’ve beaten England 42-37 and Wales 52-20 in successive weeks and given us a couple of winners.

They now play Scotland and Ireland to conclude their Autumn tour. The Ireland game in particular will give a good steer for where Australia are.

Scotland lost 32-15 to South Africa a fortnight ago and then beat Portugal 59-21 last weekend. As a team they’ve flattered to deceive against Tier 1 opposition over several seasons, such as in last season’s six Nations where they beat England and Wales but lost to Italy. In the rugby World Cup in a horrible group they didn’t get close to South Africa and Ireland.

With plenty of firepower out-wide and Russell pulling the strings this should set up as an open and weather permitting high scoring game.

Before I started writing I did my own piece of mental handicapping and came up with Australia -3 or -4. Clearly favourites to me. I then checked the markets…..to see Australia +3 to +4. Yes please. All I could think was that maybe Australia would rest players ahead of Ireland next week.

There’s a chance they are simply too strong for the Scots up front and even if its an even contest there, Australia’s try scoring firepower should see them home.

20 points Australia +3.5 points at 10/11 generally


Clarified

In June, the Associated Press clarified the guidelines for the official Comeback Player of the Year award. As of a fortnight ago betting markets, which had Sam Darnold the Minnesoita Vikings Quarterback as favourite, showed that people weren’t necessarily heeding the clarification.

This prompted a tweet from the AP as follows…clarifying the clarification.

“QB Sam Darnold probably would’ve been a candidate for the Comeback Player of the Year award before the AP issued guidance to voters before the season, instructing them that “the spirit of the award is to honor a player who has demonstrated resilience in the face of adversity by overcoming illness, physical injury or other circumstances that led him to miss playing time the previous season.” If he keeps playing at this level, Darnold could end up with another award: Most Valuable Player.”

Uncertainty still lingers regarding the basic question of whether players who don’t meet the revised criteria can receive votes and, in theory, win the award.

Will players like Darnold and Steelers quarterbacks Justin Fields and Russell Wilson who haven’t been seriously injured or ill but have “come back” to success in the NFL be declared ineligible and any votes for them rejected?

The criteria, as written, is sufficiently broad to allow a voter to vote for someone who supposedly isn’t eligible. Consider the specific language of it: “resilience in the face of adversity by overcoming illness, physical injury or other circumstances (my italics) that led him to miss playing time the previous season.”

The key words are “other circumstances.” Darnold overcame being stuck with bad organisations for the early years of his career, which caused him to miss playing time in 2023 because he wasn’t deemed to be good enough to start for any team. Aren’t those “other circumstances” that would allow a vote for Darnold?

The quote from the AP seems circular in its logic. The voters know the criteria and we expect them to follow the criteria thus the winner necessarily will meet the criteria.

The criteria is broad enough to encompass anyone who had a better year in 2024 than he had in 2023. It seems that the issue arose as an effort to ensure that “comeback player” isn’t confused for “most improved.” At some point, however, the issue became twisted up with concerns over bets placed on the award.

Since the clarification of the clarification players like Darnold have been removed from consideration by sports books like FanDuel. Without a clear statement from the AP that Darnold isn’t eligible, however, that seems premature. Unless the AP plans to reject votes for certain players Darnold could still win.

The NFL Comeback Player of the Year award has a chance to become a full-blown mess in 2024.


Betting Emporium results

The detailed results page has been updated on 1st January 2024. They can be found by clicking RESULTS

If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £69,601 All bets have an ROI +2.97%

A £4000 bank betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £73,601, a 1740% increase.

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