Weekly Articles "Road to Riches" by Rich 'Tighty' Prew
The Road to Riches Weekend of 22nd-23rd March
Coming up this weekend
- Horse Racing, over the jumps at Bangor-on-Dee, Kelso and Newbury and on the all-weather at Newcastle and Wolverhampton
- Football, UEFA Nations League Quarterfinals and World Cup Qualifiers including England v Latvia
- Cricket, the start of the new IPL season
- Motor Racing, the Chinese Grand Prix in Shanghai
- Golf, The Houston Open on the USPGA tour and the Indian Open on the DP World Tour
- Tennis, ATP Miami Open continues
Aintree Festival
We have added the Aintree Grand National Festival (Full Package) 3rd - 5th April 2025 to the website here
Free Tip
2025 IPL
The IPL begins this weekend with the first of 74 matches leading to the final in Kolkota on 25th May.
Defending Champions KKR won last year as 12-1 outsiders. The year before CSK won as 10-1 outsiders having finished bottom in 2022. Looking at last year’s Group stage table, 7 of the 10 teams finished with at least 7 wins with three teams only missing out on the knockout stages on net run rate.
It is so competitive, with each teams having match-winners, that is possible for any team to turn round quickly year-to-year with changes in coaching, draft recruitment, culture and tactics all factors.
Outright prices this year as I write are:
Mumbai Indians 4/1
CSK 5/1
Sunrisers Hyderabad 5/1
KKR 8/1
RCB 9/1
Gujarat 10/1
Lucknow 11/1
Delhi Capitals 11/1
Punjab Kings 11/1
Rajasthan Royals 16/1
Each way terms are of key interest and are 1/3 two places.
Looking at the head of the market first
CSK and Mumbai are the giant franchises of the IPL. Mumbai finished bottom last year with just four wins but are favourites a year later. The odds are impacted by the fact Mumbai have won five titles and boast box office players. However, they have finished bottom in two of the last four years and only made one play-off. With Jasprit Bumrah an injury doubt it isn’t the strongest squad and I want to oppose them at the prices.
CSK have one of the biggest home advantages in the IPL on slow and low pitches in Chennai where their spinners dominate often in low scoring games and begin with three home games in the first four. Last year their spin attack had the best economy rate in the competition. The doubt is whether the batting line up is powerful enough particularly if they reach late in the competition and need to win away from home on a flat pitch in a high scoring game.
Sunrisers were beaten finalists last year and with Travis Head and Heinrich Klaasen leading the way (and Abishek Sharma hit the most sixes in the competition last year) have a high-powered batting line-up. Cummins, Shami and Zampa are the core of the bowling attack but support bowlers are a weakness, which led to one of the worst bowling economy rates last year
KKR’s spinners took 38 wickets last year, 8 ahead of CSK and Sunil Narine was league MVP. The spin attack is all back for 2025. Overseas pace bowling is more of an issue. Starc has left and Anrich Nortje is injured.
Outside the top four I have been searching for turnaround stories and value amongst the outsiders in the market and I alighted on the Delhi Capitals.
Delhi have never won the IPL, finalists in the COVID Competition in the UAE in 2020 is the closes they have come.
Previous Head coach Ricky Ponting has left, which I think might be a positive and with him have gone late career David Warner and fellow Australian Mitch Marsh giving room for more impact overseas recruits. Less positively Risbabh Pant has left and Harry Brook pulled out of the competition recently, though they may get a replacement in.
Looking at the likely first choice XI three of the four overseas players are likely to be in the top six. Australian Jake Fraser-McGurk was the IPL “Striker of the year” in 2024 but after a poor winter needs to rediscover his form. Two South Africans, veteran Faf Du Plessis and current all format international Tristan Stubbs play. If Fraser-McGurk doesn’t rebound Donavan Ferreira, a real hit for the Oval Invincibles in the Hundred last year, is available.
The side features three current Indian 20-50 over players, captain Axar Patel, KL Rahul and left arm spinner Kuldeep Yadav.
In the pace bowling ranks Mitchell Starc, one of great T20 bowlers, has joined supported by veterans Mohit Sharma and T. Natarajan. Natarajan took 18 wickets for the Sunrisers in 2023 and 19 last year.
If they can stay fit, I feel the 10-1+ each way is decent value.
10 points each way Delhi Capitals to win the IPL at 12-1 (1/3 1,2) Betfair Sportsbook, StarSports, 11/1 Bet365, SkyBet, 10/1 widely available IPL
Transition
Manchester City won six of last seven Premier League titles and nine since 2010, but this year languish fifth at the time of writing with eight defeats so far this season and a heavy defeat to Real Madrid in the early part of the Champions league knockout stages
Eternal domination is rare, football works in cycles, but to see City lose their purpose and identity so sharply is quite unusual. Liverpool, who've recalibrated under Arne Slot, are 20 points clear of the mostly immovable object they faced in Jurgen Klopp's time.
An ageing and injury-hit squad have made uncharacteristic mistakes, waning confidence is leading to passive spells and key players are under-performing.
City's malaise is a deep-rooted tactical problem that Pep Guardiola has acknowledged saying "It doesn't work like it worked in the past."
Mentioning Bournemouth and Brighton he said: "Today, modern football is not positional. You have to ride the rhythm."
Attacking quickly after a transition (when possession changes hands) is arguably overtaking Guardiola's philosophy at elite level, with emphasis increasingly placed on direct football that runs deliberately in contrast to possession and territory.
Looking at statistics over the past eight seasons, since Guardiola's first title in England, we can see a clear trend of increases in high turnovers and pressing (passes per defensive action keep coming down season by season) plus fast breaks and direct attacks.
A core principle of Guardiola's philosophy is to compress the shape and stay in set positions, shutting off routes to counter should the ball be lost. To stay rigidly in those positions you need "rest" periods that long periods of possession allow. Without them City are spread out and less organised, hence their new vulnerability to fast breaks and individual errors from panicked defenders pulled out of position.
Defensively City's press has dropped, as has their ability to win the ball high. A less effective press and counter-press means City are worse at stopping fast breaks through the middle with the unmistakable sense that Manchester City can be passive. A high defensive line without pressing effectively, and an ageing central midfield without the peerless Rodri out injured are unable to cover ground to fill the gaps.
The defensive collapse is simple. Their defenders have never been top level when defending in isolation. But they were protected by the team keeping the ball so well. They now no longer circulate possession well enough and this exposes their defensive and physical levels.
There are signs in the recruitment of Marmoush and Nico Gonzalez that Guardiola is evolving again. Gonzalez is a “mini-Rodri” allowing City to squeeze the midfield and set the tempo of play again. When Marmoush plays the ball over the top is used more frequently, and when alongside Haaland that has led to two runners in behind, allowing City to bypass the man-to-man press.
City completed 39 long passes against Newcastle recently, their fourth-highest figure of the campaign and most since early November, while 30% of Ederson's open-play passes were launched long, his second-highest percentage of the season.
Guardiola might already be well on the way to reviving and modernising City's tactics.
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated on 8th February 2025. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £68,468 All bets have an ROI +2.71%
A £4000 bank betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £72,468, a 1711% increase.
The Road to Riches Weekend of 15th-16th March
Coming up this weekend
- Horse Racing, over the jumps at Kempton, Newcastle and Uttoxeter and on the all-weather at Southwell and Wolverhampton
- Football, Premier League fixtures include Arsenal v Chelsea and the Carabao Cup Final Liverpool v Newcastle United
- Rugby Union, the final round of the Six Nations
- Motor Racing, the start of the 2025 season with the Australian Grand Prix
- Golf, The Valspar Championship on the USPGA tour and the Singapore Classic on the DP World Tour
- Tennis, ATP Miami Open
Free Tip
2025 F1 Drivers Championship
The 2025 F1 season starts in Australia the first of 24 races.
Max Verstappen has won four drivers titles in a row, but last season was not as plain sailing as the previous two years in Red Bull’s dominant era. Verstappen won 7 of the first 10 races of the season but only won 2 of the last 14.
In the second half of 2024 season Red Bull was overtaken by McLaren and to an extent Ferrari, in part a function of less wind tunnel development time due to penalties imposed budget cap breaches in prior seasons.
This is the last season before a big regulation change for the 2026 season with smaller, lighter cars and new aerodynamics intended to help closer racing and this year’s cars are iterations of last year’s designs.
Over three days of testing last month in Bahrain lap times 1-2 seconds ahead of last year with McLaren at the head of the field on long run pace/race simulations 0.15-0.2 seconds per lap quicker than Ferrari, Red Bull and Mercedes although its tough to accurately gauge fuel loads for example to know that we are strictly comparing like-for-like. Possibly significantly Red Bull completed the fewest laps of any of the ten teams (304 versus 450+ laps for the teams running the most)
Verstappen has since expressed concerns over how competitive Red Bull can be this year, following Bahrain.
'I don’t think we can fight for the win in Melbourne,' the Dutchman said according to Motorsport.com.
When pressed on who could compete for the title this season, he added: 'At the moment there's only one, and that team is orange (McLaren).'
This is not to say that improvements and development can’t be made during the 2025 season though there is a strong argument that this will be less transformative this year with so much attention within teams and budgets on getting the new 2026 cars right.
For McLaren, who won the Constructors Championship last year with both drivers contributing unlike Red Bull 2024 saw
Lando Norris 3 wins, 6 second places.
Oscar Piastri 2 wins, 4 second places.
For 24-year-old Piastri in his second season in F1 all bar one of these top two results were recorded in the second half of the season.
Odds for this season’s drivers title are as follows:
Norris 13/8
Verstappen 100/30
Le Clerc 9/2
Hamilton 6/1
Piastri 8/1
Bar 16/1
It is the Each way angle that interests me, at 1/5 the odds three places.
Piastri is calm and fast, competitive with Norris on pace and possibly less hot-headed at times in the heat of the action. At worst Driver 1b to Norris’ 1a, and certainly not a second driver to a clear leader as in some other teams. His new contract signed this week locking him in early confirms what many think, a potential world champion in the right car.
He should be a serious contender this year carrying on the consistent form showed in the second half of the year and 7-1 each way appeals for a season-long play
10 points each way Oscar Piastri 8/1 SkyBet, 7/1 Ladbrokes/Coral, William Hill, Bet365, BetVictor.
One-sided
In the recent Australia test series in Sri Lanka Australia won 2-0 with Sri Lanka barely laying a glove on their visitors in two very one-sided games.
The extremely one-sided nature of the Galle Tests is a powerful reminder of the danger a dominant "Big Three" could pose. If Australia, India and England are eventually the only teams with the financial wherewithal to support a viable first-class system, then the gap between the haves and the have-nots in Test cricket will widen at an alarming rate.
There's also a danger if the proliferation of T20 games means cricket becomes purely a power game. If that were to become standard fare, not only would the artistic side of the game be diminished but also the delicate balance between bat and ball could be severely compromised. These are areas that should greatly concern a cricket administrator. However, their main focus is the financial aspects of the game.
The Test debacles in Galle are also a sharp reminder that the combination of improved/bigger bats, fitter/more powerful players and shorter boundaries can provide a fielding captain headaches.
The growing insistence on attacking batting asks the question of a Test bowling attack: can you handle being plundered? Those that cleverly withstand the assault and fight back to claim wickets against batters willing to take a risk are the strongest teams. Australia, with their classy pace attack and skilful spinner, have proved to be one of the better teams at weathering an assault.
Galle was a reminder of how quickly a fielding side can be bullied into submission. Bowlers can't operate efficiently when the field is widespread, and placing a defensive fielder for bad bowling only fosters inaccuracy.
The toughest task for a Test captain is taking 20 wickets. Therefore, having belief in the bowler and his ability to handle positive field placings is paramount in a captain's thinking. This was not the case with Sri Lanka.
The coaching and the balance between bat and ball need to be reviewed if spinners are encouraged to dart the ball into the pitch because of the danger of being easily deposited in the grandstand by a batter.
Despite multiple changes to the game, a hard-fought Test match can provide an enthralling duel between two evenly matched contestants. Test cricket doesn't need more lopsided affairs like the matches in Galle.
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated on 8th February 2025. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £68,468 All bets have an ROI +2.71%
A £4000 bank betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £72,468, a 1711% increase.
The Road to Riches Weekend of 8th-9th March
Coming up this weekend
- Horse Racing, over the jumps at Ayr, Hereford and Sandown and on the all-weather at Chelmsford City and Wolverhampton and the Cheltenham Festival next week
- Football, Premier League fixtures include Manchester United v Arsenal and Nottingham Forest v Manchester City
- Rugby Union, the fourth round of the Six Nations including Ireland v France
- Cricket, the Champions trophy final on Sunday
- Golf, The Players Championship at TPC Sawgrass
- Tennis, ATP BNP Paribas Open at Indian Wells continues.
2025 Cheltenham Festival
Starts on Tuesday, still time to subscribe to Neil Channing’s race by race coverage over the four days HERE for £199
Free Tip
Rugby Six Nations Round 4 England v Italy Sunday 3pm
Fifteen of England’s past 19 Tests have been one-score results (and two were blowout wins against Japan). After a run of seven defeats against the leading nations, England have now engineered successive one-point victories in the Six Nations after their opening defeat in Dublin by five points.
There’s another universe in which passes stick to Antoine Dupont’s normally reliable hands and Finn Russell’s kicks go between the posts. In that universe, England are 0 from 3 in this Championship and in a full-blown crisis.
England in this real universe though are beginning to master the knack of winning even when not playing well and racking up points even when the attack looks blunt.
Much work lies ahead for England to become a world-class attacking side capable of scaring opponents with the ball. With Italy next up and if France do England a favour in Dublin, England could though be playing Wales for a shot at the Six Nations title on the final weekend.
Against Scotland 41% of England’s rucks were slower than six seconds. England were not comfortable with the ball. They launched 16 box-kicks and retained two. Their pass-to-kick ratio was 1:3. Scotland’s was 1:10. Again their wide defence was a mess.
On the positive side England have had scrum dominance all Championship. Statistically, England have the best scrum in the Six Nations this season, winning more penalties and free kicks than anyone while Italy are the only team to have conceded fewer.
England are 22.5-point favourites here which is understandable enough. After all Italy are coming off a game in which they conceded 73 points to France at home with the visitors scoring 11 tries. England are not France though in their attacking intentions and plans and Italy should be putting up points of their own against this inconsistent England defence with the excellent centre pairing of Menoncello and Brex and Capuozzo outside them a threat.
England have made a couple of changes in the backs after the lacklustre attacking display against Scotland with Slade dropped in the centre and Marcus Smith on the bench and Elliott Daly at full back.
22.5 points feels like a big spread here, though Italy covering will require them to score a couple of tries of their own
11 points Italy +22.5 points at 10/11 generally
Coming up Roses
Philadelphia Eagles General Manager Howie Roseman started as an intern in the Eagles' front office twenty years ago and rose all the way through the organization to become the GM.
He has now built the best roster in the NFL and won a second Super Bowl from three appearances in eight years. He is one of four general managers in the league’s salary cap era (since 1994) to construct three Super Bowl rosters while winning multiple championships with the same franchise and furthermore built two championship teams with two different quarterbacks and two different head coaches.
Roseman comes from a Cap/contract/business background where NFL owners are still mostly hiring GMs primarily from scouting backgrounds. This is different from the MLOB and NBA where a background such as Roseman’s is far more common.
Roseman conducts his role with key differences in three main areas from a typical GM:
- Draft strategy
The Eagles only draft from the “Power Five” positions in the first round of the draft: Quarterback, Offensive Line and Defensive Line, wide receiver and cornerback the positions with the biggest salaries.
Looking at their first-round picks for the last 20 years by position:
Quarterback: 1
Wide receiver: 4 (plus AJ Brown Trade)
Offensive Line: 4
Defensive Line/EDGE: 9
Cornerback: 1 (in 2024)
The most consistent "analytical" precept in the Roseman era is that linemen on both sides are under-paid, under-drafted and you can't spend enough resources on them. The Eagles consistently draft and develop offensive line talent and place premium resources on the defensive front too.
This has most recently been seen in the past two seasons, drafting defensive linemen Jalen Carter, Nolan Smith and Jordan Davis early then moving to address their secondary weakness in 2024 by drafting Cooper DeJean and Quinyon Mitchell in the first two rounds last year. In making these moves the Eagles successfully rebuilt their defense into the league’s best in two seasons.
- Roster construction
Roseman makes aggressive trade and free agency moves that have a high hit rate and often go against consensus thinking. Last offseason, he signed Saquon Barkley, Zack Baun and Mekhi Becton, the former in an era where running back values had declined dramatically and hired Kellen Moore and Vic Fangio as offensive and defensive co-ordinators changing both positions after the incumbents had only been in place a year.
- Cap Management
A real story of success for Eagles team-building is financial alchemy: pushing salary costs into the future in an extreme fashion to allow maximum talent on the field under the current year salary cap.
Drafting, signing and trading is one thing, but for example lets compare the Eagles with the Bengals (top passing offense in 2024). One major factor limiting how the Bengals attempt to build a championship roster is how they overinflate cap hits. The Bengals top 10 cap hits take up more than 58% of their total cap space. The Eagles top 10 cap hits only take up 40% of their total cap space. How much more talent could the Bengals pack onto their roster with another $45m? Looking for Saquon Barkley? His 2024 cap hit was $3.8M and $1.49% of the cap. If he signed with the Bengals, that cap hit would've been $11M.
Roseman takes advantage of a rarely used salary cap technique by adding void years in players’ contracts. This stretches a player’s cap hit to seasons that go past their current deal, which opens up short-term cap space to sign more immediate talent.
Philadelphia’s roster has 15 players with void years in their contracts, based on data from Spotrac. This includes Super Bowl MVP Jalen Hurts, whose $13.5m figure in the image above is despite his contract’s average annual value being $51 m. His void years start in 2029 with a cap hit worth $38.37m. For comparison’s sake, the Super Bowl losing Chiefs have only one player with void years: DeAndre Hopkins, who they traded for in the middle of the season.
Looking just at offense, let's compare the positional rankings for annual per year (APY) contract value versus 2024 cap hit
Jalen Hurts: APY - 9th 2024 Cap - 16th
A.J. Brown APY - 3rd 2024 Cap - 13th
DeVonta Smith: APY - 11th 2024 Cap - 23rd
Saquon Barkley: APY - 3rd 2024 Cap - 19th
Dallas Goedert: APY - 4th 2024 Cap Hit - 9th
Jordan Mailata: APY - 5th 2024 Cap Hit - 10th
Landon Dickerson: APY - 1st 2024 Cap Hit - 9th
By using these techniques Roseman gives the Eagles a short term roster construction competitive advantage.
In the Super Bowl Patrick Mahomes was running for his life all night. And the Eagles never blitzed, simply rushing the front four and using an umbrella defense in the back seven. The Eagles defense had 6 sacks with this 0% blitz rate, 16 pressures and 11 Quarterback hits (Over the 2024 season as a while Chiefs opponents averaged just 2 hits and 4 pressures a game). It was very reminiscent of the Tampa Bay 31 Chiefs 9 Super Bowl a few years ago.
On top of the pressure he was facing though Mahomes also played poorly. He was pressured on 38% of drop-backs, the fifth highest pressure rate he's faced in his NFL career and it led to his second worst performance by EPA in his career.
At the same time it cannot be overstated how good Jalen Hurts was in both the NFC Championship and Super Bowl. His EPA/drop-back in each of these games (individually) were both top 8 among all Quarterbacks in a conference championship or Super Bowl game in the last 25 years.
For the Chiefs we saw that when an offense won’t run the ball, can’t hit the quick passing game with consistency, can’t hit the intermediate passing game when it has receivers wide open, can’t hit the deep passing game because it can’t pass protect long enough against a standard four man rush and gets demolished, you have no chance. When your defense does a good job of taking away the opponents primary weapon (Barkley), makes the Quarterback have to beat them with his arm (and legs), and that Quarterback plays a near perfect game with his decision making and accuracy, you have no chance.
Next year for the Eagles, their philosophy of building through the trenches and a unique approach to roster-building will once again be key with a large chunk of the core players still in place and understandably they are 5/1 favourites to win the Super Bowl again.
Looking further out they might have to make some tough roster cuts after this core has pushed to win 2-3 more trophies. Because void years have pushed cap hits to later years, Philadelphia has the league’s second-largest salary-cap allocation in 2027 and the largest from 2028-30. This means sacrifices may have to be made in the coming years increasing the importance of continuing to draft exceptionally again.
However the salary cap is going to explode again, and it’s all because of a change in how Nielsen measures ratings. Starting this year, they are leaning into using data directly from Smart TV manufacturers to measure viewing habits in addition to the traditional at-home panel method. This means NFL ratings in particular from Sunday Ticket on YouTube are going to be more accurately measured and that number is going to be bigger than previously forecast because of just how many Gen-Z and Millennials consume football on streaming services. More accurate ratings means the league’s next broadcast rights negotiation in 2028/2029 is going to be way more expensive which ultimately means massive jumps in the salary cap.
The NFL agreed to the current media rights deal back in 2021, and then Jeff Lurie the Eagles owner who has a background in film and TV production and knows that the league will be going back to the table in 2029 chose to set up these back end contracts the Eagles currently carry. It may be a great gamble that pays off both short and long term.
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated on 1st February 2025. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £68,468 All bets have an ROI +2.71%
A £4000 bank betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £72,468, a 1711% increase.
The Road to Riches Weekend of 1st-2nd March
Coming up this weekend
- Horse Racing, over the jumps at Doncaster, Kelso and Newbury and on the all-weather at Newcastle and Southwell
- Football, FA Cup fifth round weekend then the Champions League last sixteen next Midweek
- Cricket, the Champions trophy continues including South Africa v England in Karachi
- Golf, The Arnold Palmer Invitational on the USPGA and the Joburg Open on the DP World Tour
- Tennis, ATP BNP Paribas Open at Indian Wells
2025 Cheltenham Festival
Starts on Tuesday 11th March, still time to subscribe to Neil Channing’s race by race coverage over the four days at HERE for £199
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Free Tip Champions Trophy Cricket: South Africa v England Karachi Saturday 9am GMT start The Champions Trophy has reached the final block of pool games over the weekend and following successive losses to Australia and Afghanistan England are already out of the tournament. The situation at the top of the pool is interesting for South Africa following the washout of the Australia game in mid-week. Because they beat Afghanistan comfortably first up, they have a big net run rate advantage over Australia ahead of the final games (2.14 v 0.47). There is a huge incentive to win the pool, and in so doing avoid the (probable) trip to Dubai for a semi-final against India. Although Pakistan are hosting the competition and the team that has the best home advantage is India with the Dubai pitches worn following the recent conclusion of the ILT20 tournament at the same venue and where India can play three top class spinners and have five to choose from in their squad. A reminder that because of India-Pakistan politics India will play throughout in Dubai, including the final if they make it. A strong argument that the tournament lacks sporting integrity, certainly, but it’s no surprise they are strong outright favourites even ahead of their New Zealand game on Friday. (India 11/8, Australia 7/2 New Zealand 4/1 South Africa 4/1 Afghanistan 28/1) South Africa will look to win well here, to most likely stay in Pakistan for a semi against New Zealand. The other semi-finalist will come from the winner of the Australia-Afghanistan game. England's results in men's white-ball cricket this year are played ten lost 9, they were thrashed in India a month ago and have now under-performed in Pakistan. They’ve won three and lost eleven of their last fourteen games against Full Member Nations at global tournaments. Surely game over for Jos Buttler's captaincy. The selection strategy has been muddled, with the firm preference for raw pace. Is there really any possibility of winning a major trophy in Asia with one front line spinner in the squad? In 2025 games alone, a seven-game sample size in Asian conditions, England’s bowlers have had their worst economy rate in over three years. Against Australia England’s quicks went at a combined 8.5 runs an over. Against Afghanistan, a far less powerful batting side 28 overs of pace went for 186 runs at just under 7 an over. Having conceded the highest successful ruin chase in an ICC tournament agaisnt Australia a week ago, they allowed 113 runs in the final ten overs against Afghanistan. Archer and Wood are excellent bowlers, but there has been no “horses for courses” selection to support Adil Rashid (the excellent spin all-rounder Liam Dawson from Hampshire perhaps, or a left arm seamer in Sam Curran to break up the right arm fast battery) instead depending on a combination of Joe Root and Liam Livingstone to fiddle 10 of the 50 overs. All that said, England might be alighting on a more reasonable 11 when it is too late. Brydon Carse is injured and Rehan Ahmed has been called up. Mark Wood is an injury doubt too. The game is being played in Karachi, a flat track so far in the tournament. South Africa scored 315 here in their first game against Afghanistan, New Zealand opened the tournament with 320 against Pakistan. It’s tricky to see a potential England bowling attack of Archer, Atkinson/Mahmood, Overton, Rashid and Ahmed restricting a powerful South African batting line up here and notwithstanding the batting excellence of Joe Root and the potential for any of Harry Brook, Buttler, Duckett etc to go big it is the bowling line up that appears to be the weakness in these conditions. England have two of the three top run scorers in the tournament, after all. Given the very different motivations here, I priced South Africa up as firm favourites. I then checked and saw 4/5 South Africa England Evens in most places. The 8/11 South Africa England 11/10 at Betfred is an outlier but seems more sensible to me. Rather than look at player markets, I’ll keep it simple. 20 points South Africa to beat England at 4/5 widely available. |
Hundreds and Thousands
The England and Wales Cricket Board has sold its 49% stake in each of the eight Hundred teams.
Surrey began the sales and negotiated a £60m price with the owners of Mumbai Indians for a 49% stake in Oval Invincibles, the county retaining the 51% share given to them by the ECB.
That was followed by three similar deals. Warwickshire agreed a 49% sale of Birmingham Phoenix to Birmingham City owners Knighthead Capital and Glamorgan sold the same stake in Welsh Fire to IT entrepreneur Sanjay Govil for £40m.
In between, a price of £145m for 49% of Lord's-based London Spirit was agreed between Marylebone Cricket Club and a Silicon Valley consortium of tech investors including from Adobe and Google. The size of that deal confounded expectations.
Manchester Originals then became the second Hundred franchise to partner with an Indian Premier League team after Lancashire agreed a deal with RPSG group, owners of the Lucknow Super Giants, putting a total value of £116m on the Originals. They agreed to take a 70% share in the Originals, meaning Lancashire have become the first host to hand over a controlling stake.
Cash-strapped Yorkshire then became the first county to sell the entire stake in their Hundred side selling the Northern Superchargers to Sunrisers Hyderabad for £100.5m. Yorkshire are in line for more than £43m from the 100% sale, and a windfall of more than £60m from the Hundred sale overall which should mean they write off their debts entirely. Yorkshire have been in deep financial trouble in recent years, exacerbated by the racism crisis that engulfed the county.
Chelsea owner Todd Boehly then bought a 49% stake in the Trent Rockets, the franchise valued at £80m. Southampton based Southern Brave were sold last, a unique case as their controlling county Hampshire are owned by GMR the Indian co-owner of the Delhi Capitals.
The sale of shares in the Hundred teams gives a windfall of £470m to the English game with a valuation of the franchises of £975m. IPL owners concluded by buying stakes in 4 of the 8 teams.
The winning bidders are now in a six-week period of exclusivity with the host venue and ECB to work out the details. The 2025 Hundred will largely be unaffected but the 2026 edition is likely to look and feel markedly different, including in the branding and names of teams.
The proceeds from the first 10% of the ECB’s stakes will go to the recreational game, the remaining 90% of the ECB’s share will be split 19% ways to the 18 counties plus the MCC. The first £275m will be split equally 19 ways, the next £150m will be split only between non-hosts, anything above that split 19 ways again.
If the hosts sell any of their 51%, such as Lancashire, they keep the majority of the proceeds, with 10% going to the recreational game and 10% spread between the other counties.
The owners of Chennai Super Kings and Kolkata Knights Riders, two of the most significant IPL teams who have also popped up in franchise leagues elsewhere, withdrew. This stems from a belief that the Hundred is over-priced and frustration with an ECB sales process.
This is a one-off payment. For the non-hosts, this is it. But if you're a host you stand to benefit for a long time. Money will continue to flow into the top of the game. What supporters want for the Hundred may not be to the benefit of English cricket. The ECB say there are checks and balances but if investors aren't getting the return they want, they could, insist on an expansion of the Hundred, or the abolition of the Blast.
The real measure of success will be lower down. If, in 20 years, the non-host counties and the recreational game are thriving, great. But if not, English cricket structure including the number of first class counties likely to have changed forever. It sets the game in this country on a radically different path one where the market rather than tradition will dictate terms.
What is in it for the technology investors? Cricket lends itself to digital delivery but its exploitation of digital rights has been limited
Cricket can embrace gaming and more technology within the playing of the game and potentially create handheld experiences for fans watching the game. Cricket is a sport which has 2.5 billion followers and is the only game that can deliver huge South Asian market potential to the big technology giants Facebook, Amazon, Microsoft, Apple and Google.
Because football is so huge here, drowning out most other sports, we sometimes forget how popular the sport is in other parts of the world. India, obviously, with its billion-plus population, accounts for a huge share of this, and as a result cricket is said to be the world’s second-most popular sport, and growing.
One of the aspects that makes sports franchises so valuable is their ability to generate what marketeers call ‘first party data’. As concerns about data privacy grow, there is an irreversible trend towards consumers (fans) owning their data. One of the most ironic aspects of the rise of Big Tech (Google, Facebook etc) has been that their value has almost entirely been created by consumers’ unconscious willingness to give away their data for nothing. As this changes, brands, apps and companies that can access that data (with the consumer’s permission) will grow in value. By inference, sports franchises’ value will grow too.
PwC estimate that in the next decade sports-related values will grow by 6-7%, turbo-charged by the rapid advance in women’s sports which are expected to grow by 30% in value in the medium term. This explains the furious bidding for London Spirit, and its owners MCC/Lord’s. It is still the best known ‘brand’ in cricket.
As trade barriers go up, conversely globalisation is accelerating within sport. The advance of franchise competitions will come at the expense of bilateral international cricket (ICC events will still resonate) and some of these franchises now have interests spread across the globe, positioned for that future. The chance to invest here is part of that trend.
The ECB CEO has said that Hundred sale has the capacity to recapitalise the county game for the next 20-25 years. Although the 11 non-host counties stand to each make about £25million out of the sale, it comes at a price: in the long term, their annual “handouts” from the ECB, which have been their lifeblood for so long, are set to fall. With time, some counties may look back on this moment as when they got a golden handshake and the beginning of the end of an 18 county professional game.
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated on 1st September 2024. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £68,468 All bets have an ROI +2.71%
A £4000 bank betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £72,468, a 1711% increase.
The Road to Riches Weekend of 22nd-23rd February
Coming up this weekend
- Horse Racing, over the jumps at Chepstow, Kempton and Newcastle and on the all-weather at Chelmsford and Southwell
- Football, Premier League fixtures include Manchester City v Liverpool
- Rugby Union, the third weekend of the Six Nations including England v Scotland
- Cricket, the Champions trophy continues including England v Australia in Lahore
- Golf, The Cognizant Classic on the USPGA and the South African Open on the DP World Tour
- Tennis, ATP Opens in Chile, Dubai and Mexico
2025 Cheltenham Festival
Starts on Tuesday 11th March, still time to subscribe to Neil Channing’s race by race coverage over the four days at HERE for £199
Free Tip
Six Nations England v Scotland Saturday 4.45pm
England have had the toughest start to a Six Nations possible and creditably only lost by five points in Dublin and then beat France at home by a point, which should stand them in good stead for easier games to come.
Scotland have won the Calcutta cup for the last four seasons and will be a good test of whether England are continuing on the right tack before Italy and Wales to come at the end of the Championship.
It has to be said that England were flattered in beating France, who made 27 handling errors and fluffed three final scoring passes. Without those mistakes the outcome would have been more as expected. France manipulated England’s defence and got round the edge repeatedly with the wingers scoring three tries.
There were undoubtedly positives though, notably Curry and Earl at the breakdown and with Fin Smith at 10 there was a structure and a strategy to the attacking game in contrast to the off-the-cuff approach often adopted with Marcus Smith at 10. England played straighter and more directly than they’ve done for a long time.
According to Opta stats England have beaten 30 or more defenders in 7 matches against Tier 1 opponents in the last 15 years, 2 out of these 7 games have been in this Six Nations.
England’s bench, with over 200 caps combined, was a big improvement on that in Dublin and made a real difference, vital for a side that has struggled in the last twenty minutes of games for over six months.
Scotland were smashed up front by Ireland who applied pressure and then more pressure on the Scotland half-backs with 80% possession. Unlucky to lose Russell and Graham to injury in the first half Scotland were on the back foot for much of the game and in those circumstances it’s difficult to maintain composure and accuracy, as conceding 12 penalties showed.
Scotland are loaded with individual excellence and firepower in wide areas but they’ll need to establish a better platform against England. They know that their flanker Rory Darge will be highly competitive at the breakdown and that England won’t have quite intensity of Ireland over 80 minutes but also that their bench will lack the impact of England’s.
Against France, England prevailed without ever shutting down French attacking avenues. On another day this would (and should) have cost them the game. Now they have to work on breaking down Scotland at source and making Finn Russell’s life difficult. If they do, winning by a score plus as the -8.5-point handicap quote implies is a probability. However the usual route to Scotland success against England is via the varied kicking of Russell, and here he will be moving around a player playing out of position, Marcus Smith at full back. Its very difficult to cover all the space. Scotland may not win, but getting 8.5 points is the better option here.
11 points Scotland +8.5 points at 10/11 generally
Running up the hill
Now the dust has settled on the NFL season time to reflect to digest what happened with running backs.
For years backing ageing running backs on new teams has been an easy-to-avoid landmine. This year, three of the top-five running backs were Saquon Barkley, Derrick Henry and Josh Jacobs and their performance in their sixth year or beyond years in the NFL were all historical outliers.
Do we chalk it up as a fluke? Or do we kick ourselves for not taking advantage more of these performances through the season? I lean toward the latter.
All of these running backs were going from bottom-tier offenses to top-tier offenses and they all remained healthy in 2024. The Eagles and Ravens in particular were the two top ranked rushing offenses in the league, a huge difference from running on the Giants and Titans for Barkley and Henry in previous seasons.
That said the balance between offensive and defensive strategies in the NFL is always a cyclical one. In recent years defenses have employed two-high defensive shells with both safeties held back to support cornerbacks in the passing game and limit explosive plays. Running against light boxes up front, the good running games made hay.
Logically the success of running games in 2024 should see more defensive run support in 2005, creating one on ones outside again. Perhaps we should expect the wide receiver position to bounce back in 2025.
That said there is also a significant takeaway from 2024 which is a shift towards more bell cow usage for the best running backs, as opposed to a majority of teams playing with running back committees in 2017-23.
Between 2017 and 2023, the NFL averaged 6.7 players a season over 290 touches. The highest seasons were nine in 2017 and 2019, while the fewest was four in 2021. In 2024, 13 backs went over 290 touches. For example James Conner finished fifth in yards per game. His number would have tied Kyren Williams and Joe Mixon for 8th in 2024.
Betting on older veterans changing to better teams was an edge in 2024 although in betting terms it soon disappeared, with the likes of Barkley and Henry 1-2 anytime touchdown scorer most weeks and quoted at over/under 100+ rushing yards.
Perhaps, because of that lack of value and potential switches in defensive strategy the secret in 2025 will be to identify talented rookie running backs drafted into good situations. Fortunately the 2025 rookie running back class looks an exceptional one with over a dozen likely to be selected in the first three or four rounds and potential starters in year one in the NFL.
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated on 1st September 2024. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £68,468 All bets have an ROI +2.71%
A £4000 bank betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £72,468, a 1711% increase.
