Weekly Articles "Road to Riches" by Rich 'Tighty' Prew
The Road to Riches Weekend of 7th-8th September
Coming up this weekend
- Horse Racing, On the flat at Ascot, Haydock, Kempton and Thirsk on the all-weather at Wolverhampton and Lingfield and over the jumps at Stratford
- Football, UEFA Nations League matches include the Republic of Ireland v England.
- NFL, the start of the new season.
- Rugby Union, Rugby Championship Matches include South Africa v New Zealand
- Golf, the Napa Valley Golf Championship on the USPGA and the Irish Open on the DP World Tour.
- Tennis, the Davis Cup continues
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Rugby Championship South Africa v New Zealand 4pm Saturday Cape Town
South Africa remain unbeaten after their first three games of the 2024 Rugby Championship after winning first game of their All Black double header in Johannesburg last weekend 31-27 from 27-17 down with 15 minutes to go.
After that result New Zealand have 1 win from 3 games with this match in Cape Town and two Australia matches to come in Sydney and Wellington, both of which they would be expected to win.
New Zealand controlled most of last weekend’s match but were undone by a lack of impact from their inexperienced bench especially from the forwards, in sharp contrast to the contribution made by the South Africa’s “Bomb Squad” who led the way as they came back to win.
The All Blacks were in the lead for 81% of the game and outscored the hosts 4 tries to 3 but for the second time in three games, the bench lost the game for the All Blacks. They failed to match the intensity and pace of Kwagga Smith, Grant Williams and Eben Etzebeth, and they allowed the Springboks to overturn a 10-point lead in the final quarter. New Zealand scored their last points in the 58th minute.
As stated in recent columns New Zealand rugby has been hollowed out having lost playing resources in the first year of a new World Cup cycle by retirements and defections by the financial rewards on offer to play in Japan and France. They are also building a new style under a new Head Coach Scott Robertson. The result is they have a competitive first fifteen but less so for the whole 23 in a match-day squad.
For this weekend the troubling thing for the All Blacks is the Springboks are unlikely to play any worse than they did last weekend in an error-strewn performance and a chaotic game.
South Africa went off last weekend 7 point favourites and won by 4. This weekend they start five point favourites and I expect them to cover.
11 points South Africa -5 points at 10/11 generally.
Capitals
The owners of the Delhi Capitals have agreed a £120m deal to buy Hampshire in a historic move in which they will become the first county to be owned by an overseas franchise. The deal includes a 51% stake in the Southern Brave, with the option to complete a 100% takeover of the Hundred franchise.
The Delhi owners GMR Group are understood to have beaten a second bid from rival Indian Premier League franchise Lucknow Super Giants
Hampshire’s value appears to have risen during the negotiating process from a starting point of around £100mn, an increase which reflects the ECB’s decision to gift them a 51% stake in Southern Brave. The high valuation is also down to an impressive upcoming international fixture list including an Ashes Test match for Hampshire in 2027, while the Utilita Bowl will also host an India Test in 2029, another Test the following year and eight England white-ball matches between 2025 and 2031. In addition to buying the club, GMR will also take control of the Utilita Bowl, a Hilton hotel and a golf course all on the same site near Southampton.
The takeover by GMR, which also owns 50% of the Dubai Capitals in the United Arab Emirates’ ILT20 and Seattle Orcas in America’s Major League Cricket, is hugely significant for English cricket as it puts the Indian franchise in a strong position to become the first outright owners of a Hundred team.
In addition to significant investment the impending takeover opens up the possibility of Hampshire gaining access to some of Delhi Capitals’ players, particularly their youngsters. Whilst the Board of Control for Cricket in India [BCCI] does not currently permit Indians to play in the Hundred, that is likely to change if Delhi buy into the competition.
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated on 1st January 2024. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £69,601 All bets have an ROI +2.97%
A £4000 bank betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £73,601, a 1740% increase.
The Road to Riches Weekend of 31st August- 1st September
Coming up this weekend
- Horse Racing, On the flat at Beverley, Chester and Sandown, on the all-weather at Chelmsford and Lingfield and over the jumps at Newton Abbot
- Football, Premier League fixtures include Manchester United v Liverpool.
- Cricket, T20 Blast Quarter-Finals next week.
- Rugby Union, Rugby Championship Matches include South Africa v New Zealand
- Formula One, the Italian Grand Prix at Monza.
- Golf, the Napa Valley Golf Championship on the USPGA and the European Masters on the DP World Tour.
- Tennis, the US Open continues
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T20 Blast Quarter Finals Surrey v Durham 6pm Tuesday
Since the advent of The Hundred the T20 Blast, much loved by core county cricket supporters, has been somewhat marginalised in terms of profile and hamstrung by scheduling.
With all of August given over to The Hundred the knockout stages of The Blast now take place some six weeks after the conclusion of the Group stages. As a result of further scheduling difficulties, as we’ll see, its not always possible to expect that Group stage form will transfer across to the knock-out stages, compared to a few years ago when the knockouts followed immediately after the Group Stages with Finals day at Edgbaston in high summer, one of the highlights of the domestic cricketing calendar.
The four Quarter-Finals next week take place between Tuesday and Friday and are sandwiched between the second and third Sri Lanka Test matches and a 3T20I/5ODI series against Australia, which is completely superfluous but part of the arrangement the big three in world cricket have made that one of India and Australia come over once a year.
Surrey have strength in depth in their squad but face team selection issues for this game. Currently they have four players in the Test team (Pope, Lawrence, Smith, Atkinson) and five have been announced in the T20/ODI series teams (Atkinson, Jacks, Sam Curran, Smith, Topley).That list features two of Surrey’s three top T20 run scorers this year and their top wicket taker. We don’t know yet which will be allowed to play in the Quarter-Finals by the ECB. The Test players must be very unlikely. Missing Jacks and Sam Curran too would be a big blow, if it happens.
In addition the two overseas players that featured for Surrey in the Group stages, Sean Abbott and Spencer Johnson are both in the Australia squads and won’t feature.
Looking back to the Group stages Surrey finished top of the South Group with 9 wins in their 14 matches. They will have the strength in depth to be able to field a strong side of course, probably more vulnerable in batting than seam bowling but as luck would have it come up against a dangerous opponent.
Durham crept through in fourth place from the North Group with seven wins, winning their last game to get in when Leicestershire lost a concurrent “win and in” game.
Across all formats Durham are a fast developing team and a top five of opener Graham Clark (322 runs in the blast this year with two hundreds, Alex Lees, Australian Ashton Turner, Colin Ackermann and South African Test batsman David Bedingham is a threat
The bowling department will miss Matthew Potts on England duty but features relatively low-profile/unfashionable but good performers such as 20 wicket Ben Raine and the spinners Nathan Sowter (20 T20 wickets in the competition this year) and Callum Parkinson (16 wickets).
Durham definitely have a decent chance of the upset here at prices of 6/4 and above.
15 points Durham to beat Surrey at 8/5 William Hill, 6/4 Bet365, BetVictor and Betfair Sportsbook
Gold
Team Great Britain finished Paris 2024 with 65medals, beating their total from Tokyo by one. The total matches the team's medal haul from London 2012 and is the joint-third-highest for Team GB at a single Games behind Rio 2016 (67 medals) and London 1908 (146). However the team did get eight fewer golds than they did three years ago in Tokyo. 14 golds was only good enough for seventh in the medal table, our lowest placing since Athens 2004 following a third placed finish in London, second in Rio and fourth in Tokyo.
Before the era of National Lottery funding began Sir Steve Redgrave and Matthew Pinsent won the rowing men's coxless pair at Atlanta 1996 for Great Britain’s only gold.
Looking beyond gold medals alone, Team GB finished third on the total medals table, the measurement of success of choice of the USA and it’s Olympic broadcaster NBC.
This time round there were a number of close calls (in high profile athletics events the silvers of Josh Kerr and Matthew Hudson-Smith being prime examples) between finishing second and first which is the variance of single events from games to games.
On medals our top sport was cycling, but on golds alone rowing was Team GB's best sport at Paris 2024. Rowing last topped GB's medal table at Atlanta in 1996. Equestrian events were GB's third-best sport based on golds.
UK Sport awarded £245,837,685 of funding for the Paris Olympic cycle. It means each GB medal cost, on average, £3,782,118. Cycling received £29,314,683, the most funding for any sport, followed by rowing (£23,794,482) and sailing (£22,800,520). Hockey (£13,689,907) had the most funding of any sport in which GB did not win a medal in Paris.
The cheapest medal was Kate Shortman and Izzy Thorpe’s silver, a first medal for GB in artistic swimming. Artistic swimming received just £467,250 from UK Sport.
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated on 1st January 2024. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £69,601 All bets have an ROI +2.97%
A £4000 bank betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £73,601, a 1740% increase.
The Road to Riches Weekend of 24th-25th August
Coming up this weekend
- Horse Racing, On the flat at Goodwood, Newmarket, Redcar, Windsor and York and over the jumps at Cartmel.
- Football, Premier League fixtures include Aston Villa v Arsenal.
- Cricket, The second test between England-and Sri Lanka at Lords next week.
- Formula One, the Dutch Grand Prix at Zandvoort.
- Golf, the Tour Championship on the USPGA and the British Masters at the Belfry on the DP World Tour.
- Tennis, the US Open begins
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Netherlands Grand Prix, Zandvoort, Sunday 2pm
Last year Max Verstappen won 21 of 22 Grand Prix and the 2024 season began in the same vein, as he won 7 of the first 10 races.
From that point on, results have been much more mixed. Six different drivers have won races since Miami for four different teams. Mercedes, winless for two years, have won three races, plus McLaren and Ferrari.
This is a result of two factors, upgrades by the chasing teams and secondly compared to last year’s all-conquering car this year’s the Red Bull is harder to push to the limit and operates less consistently in all conditions.
The result is that McLaren now only trail Red Bull by 42 points in the Constructors Championship having outscored Red Bull over the last four Grand Prix weekends. Of course having two drivers near the head of affairs compared to Red Bull with Perez so often struggling to perform is a big factor.
In the Drivers Championship Lando Norris is still 78 points behind Verstappen with 10 races/3 sprint weekends to go, so still a significant deficit.
He has only one win this season but 8 podiums, second only to Verstappen. McLaren have been quick everywhere, whereas last year’s car performed well only at certain circuits, notably those with high speed corners.
Oscar Piastri has outscored Norris in three of the last four races as Norris has suffered from slow starts and tangles at the front with Verstappen with a win, two seconds and a fourth from the Austrian Grand Prix onwards.
This race at Zandvoort as the teams return from their summer break is obviously in Verstappen’s back yard where he will be roared on by thousands of fans.
Nevertheless race win odds have Verstappen and Norris as 2/1 joint favourites ahead of Piastri 11/2 and the Mercedes pair of Hamilton and Russell at 10/1. Each way odds are available at 1/5 1,2,3 and it is this market that appeals to me for Piastri on value grounds. I like McLaren to win the race and don’t see why Norris would be much shorter than Piatri given their current form, perhaps Norrish has slightly faster qualifying pace so might start ahead but that’s about it.
8 points each-way Oscar Piastri to win the Dutch Grand Prix at 11/2 (1/5 1,2,3) with William Hill, BetVictor and Betfair Sportsbook/Paddy Power
Crowded House
England’s hectic 2025 schedule has seen a three-match ODI series away to Ireland shunted from June to September.
According to the ICC’s Future Tours Programme (2023-27), England were due to squeeze a short trip to Ireland into the middle of a packed 2025 international summer. But the series has been moved from June, in the middle of England’s Test series against India, to late September.
The move highlights the difficulty facing any coach coming in to replace Matthew Mott in charge of England’s white-ball teams. The packed schedule makes it unlikely that the new coach will have any more access than Mott to multi-format players for the bilateral series that can be so crucial for building cohesion ahead of a World Cup.
The schedule change reveals the difficulty of fitting everything into an extraordinarily busy year for England in 2025. The schedule is being finalised and is expected to be announced in August. From May next year, England’s players will be playing relentlessly until the following March, including an Ashes series.
The home summer begins with a one-off Test against Zimbabwe at Trent Bridge. The series is likely to clash with the latter stages of the Indian Premier League, which could affect the availability of some England players.
England then face India in five Tests that will run along similar dates to the Ashes in 2023. It is likely to be over by early August at the latest, at which point the Hundred runs begins.
England also have a packed white-ball international schedule. In June, West Indies visit for three ODIs and three T20s and after the Hundred, South Africa also visit for three ODIs and T20s.
England will need to carefully manage their resources across the summer or risk their players arriving in Australia for the Ashes exhausted. While the five Tests in Australia are the only red-ball cricket in the 2025/26, England also have a busy white-ball schedule. In October 2025, they are due in New Zealand for three ODIs and three T20s, before travelling to Sri Lanka after the Ashes for three more ODIs and three T20s. After that, in February and March, they have a T20 World Cup in India.
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated on 1st January 2024. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £69,601 All bets have an ROI +2.97%
A £4000 bank betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £73,601, a 1740% increase
The Road to Riches Weekend of 17th-18th August
Coming up this weekend
- Horse Racing, On the flat at Bath, Doncaster, Newbury, Newmarket and Ripon and over the jumps at Market Rasen and Perth.
- Football, the start of the Premier League season including Chelsea v Manchester City.
- Cricket, The Eliminator and Final of the Hundred and the start of the England-Sri Lanka Test series next week.
- Rugby Union, the Rugby Championship continues, New Zealand v Argentina and Australia v South Africa
- Golf, the BMW Championship on the USPGA and the Danish Championship on the DP World Tour.
- Tennis, ATP Winston-Salem Open in North Carolina
York Ebor Festival 21st-24th August
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Rugby Championship New Zealand v Argentina 8.05am Saturday Auckland
In one of the shock results of the rugby year Argentina opened their Rugby Championship with a 38-30 win over the All-Blacks in Wellington last weekend, the most points New Zealand have ever conceded in a Test match in New Zealand.
All Blacks’ winless run in Wellington continues and they have now won there only once in the past seven Tests and are winless in that city in their last five encounters.
Last weekend Argentina outscored their hosts by four tries to three with a team containing few players from the top European teams and despite their talent in areas such as the back row, centres and wings with weaknesses at prop and scrumhalf. The Wellington win secured their third victory in four years against the All Blacks all coming outside of Argentina.
For the All Blacks now that new coach Scott Robertson’s perfect start is no more the defeat has very much put the pressure on ahead of the second clash at Eden Park this weekend.
For Argentina a match in Auckland is a completely different prospect. In Auckland the All Blacks are unbeaten for Forty-eight test matches, with two draws sprinkled in amongst 46 victories since France defeated Sean Fitzpatrick’s side on in July 1994.
That said the All Blacks have both cyclical and structural issues to contend with. It’s a new four-year World Cup cycle with a new coach and recent senior player retirements. The result can be seen for example in the second row where New Zealand currently select Sam Darry and Tupou Vaa’I, a completely different prospect from Sam Whitelock and Brodie Retallick, plus a comparatively weak bench full of inexperienced players at international level.
Structurally many players have been lost to the financial rewards on offer in Japan and France and player pathways such as the U20s and sevens teams aren’t currently delivering high quality young replacements, who are having to learn on the job, for these players.
That said I expect New Zealand to bounce back and win the game. What I can’t get behind is a spread of New Zealand -14 a week after losing to the same opponent by eight points.
11 points Argentina +14 points versus New Zealand at 10/11 generally
Hundreds and Thousands
The 3-0 victory over the West Indies in July was the start of an 18 month lead up to an away Ashes series in the winter of 2025.
Mark Wood’s match-winning spell in the third test on a slow flat pitch promised much with England moving towards creating an attack that can thrive the world over and not just in typical English conditions.
For almost the first time in Wood’s Test career, this summer he has played alongside another man capable of reaching 90mph regularly: Gus Atkinson. With 22 wickets in three matches Atkinson had a superb start to his Test career.
He also enjoyed the extra bounce when presented with the new ball after James Anderson’s retirement. Should Jofra Archer and Josh Tongue return to full fitness and John Turner advance to the Test set-up England might conceivably take to Australia five quick bowlers who can reach 90mph. Such pace is the best way to run through lower orders.
Alongside Wood and Atkinson, England’s third specialist quick against West Indies was a different type of bowler. Chris Woakes is a veteran master of swing, seam and accuracy. After a slow start to the series 11 wickets at 21 vindicated England’s decision to retain him while discarding Anderson. Matthew Potts, in the squad but not used in the series, shares similar traits to Woakes with the ball.
There was more good news for this new look bowling attack in the spin bowling department. The flight, drift, turn and bounce that Shoaib Bashir demonstrated at Trent Bridge and Edgbaston illustrated why England have made him their first choice.
All of England’s bowlers were helped by Ben Stokes’s return to bowling fitness. Stokes was able to fulfil the workload expected of a fifth bowler for the first time in two years following knee problems. This means that Atkinson and Wood can be protected from long spells and that Bashir does not have to be used in the most pace-friendly conditions. Now of course another challenge awaits with Stokes injured for the rest of the summer.
On the most recent Ashes tours in 2017 and 2021 England fielded four right-arm seamers bowling around 80mph. Anderson, Stuart Broad and Woakes played in both series supported by Craig Overton in 2017 and Ollie Robinson four years later. Both attacks were same-y and below optimal for hard fast pitches.
England’s selection this summer has been designed to ensure that never again do they take such a “vanilla” attack Down Under. The five-man attack unleashed on West Indies is the template that England will hope to follow in Australia.
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated on 1st January 2024. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £69,601 All bets have an ROI +2.97%
A £4000 bank betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £73,601, a 1740% increase.
The Road to Riches Weekend of 10th-11th August
Coming up this weekend
- Horse Racing, On the flat at Ascot, Ayr, Haydock, Lingfield, Newmarket and Redcar.
- Olympics, the 2024 games conclude in Paris
- Football, the Community Shield, Manchester City v Manchester United
- Cricket, The Hundred continues.
- Rugby Union, the start of the Rugby Championship
- Golf, the FedEx St Jude Championship on the USPGA and the Czech Championship on the DP World Tour.
- Tennis, ATP Western and Southern Open in Cincinnati
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The Rugby Championship Australia v South Africa, 05:45am Saturday, Brisbane
The first game of the 2024 Rugby Championship, the Southern Hemisphere tournament won by New Zealand with three wins out of three. South Africa haven’t won the Rugby Championship since 2019 and have finished as runners-up to the All Blacks for the past two seasons. Of course South Africa peak for World Cups and last Autumn had three successive one point wins in the knockout stages of the World Cup to retain the title they won in 2019 in Japan, including a 12-11 win over New Zealand in the final.
It being the first year of a new four-year World Cup cycle many teams are in rebuilding phases including in this competition New Zealand and Australia. South Africa meanwhile have the least disruption in coaching staff and player turnover of the four competing teams. In terms of coaching Rassie Erasmus has taken over the reins as head coach once again following the departure of Jacques Nienaber and leads South Africa into the Rugby Championship for just the third time.
Where South Africa are looking to adapt is in embracing a new style of play which focuses more on fast, expansive attack. This year so far South Africa drew a home series with Ireland 1-1 winning the first test 27-20 and losing the second 24-25.
Australia turned to New Zealander and former Ireland coach Joe Schmidt after the Eddie Jones debacle at the World Cup. Since then they’ve won three games at home beating Wales 25-16 and 36-28 followed by Georgia 40-29.
Outright odds for the rugby championship show the task Australia have here:
South Africa 4/6
New Zealand 11/8
Argentina 20/1
Australia 28/1
To start with Australia play the Springboks in back-to-back Tests in Brisbane and Perth. As the next step in their rebuilding phase.
For the first test Soth Africa are 1/3 outright and -9 on the handicap going to Brisbane where Australia have won 12 out of 13 Tests against South Africa since 1993 and every game since 2013.
It’s s not an impossibility that Australia could finish bottom with no wins this Championship and are probably putting all their eggs into two wins over Argentina. Australia have also got some major injury concerns, namely in the pack where Langi Gleeson, Fraser McReight and Rob Leota are ruled out.
In time with Schmidt’s regimented style of play he will make Australia competitive but its going to be a huge ask to be so this weekend against such a settled South Africa side, especially up-front where South Africa have a dominant scrum with the tight five of Ox Nche, Mbonambi, Malherbe, Etzebeth and Snyman.
11 points South Africa -9 points at 10/11 generally
Rally around the Caribbean
From England’s point of view a 3-0 win over the West Indies to kick off their rather low profile Test Summer is a decent start for an 18 month run up to the away Ashes series next winter. Newcomers like Gus Atkinson and Jamie Smith have impressed, James Anderson has passed the baton on and a three-test series against Sri Lanka waits in September. However watching the West Indies series it’s impossible not to feel a tinge of sadness at the decline of a West Indies team with an outstanding heritage in previous generations.
A relatively lowly populated region, about seven million people live in the cricket-playing places of the Caribbean; that's far fewer than the population of Mumbai for example, has produced some of the most wonderful cricketers we've ever seen but it would be disingenuous and wrong to pretend this is just a cyclical problem.
The West Indies haven't won an away series against anyone other than Zimbabwe or Bangladesh this century and have only reached 400 only five times in their 43 most recent Tests.
The success of the T20 format and proliferation of competitions globally has hit West Indies cricket hard. From a relatively shallow player pool many of the better cricketers are now T20 players only because of the financial rewards on offer compared to those offered by the West Indies cricket board for longer form cricket. Nicolas Pooran for example has only played six first class games in his whole career. Players like Pollard, Russell and Hetmeyer have been a fleeting presence in the Test side. From a wider perspective there is little in the way of Academy programmes in West Indies cricket and particularly in the bowling ranks many young athletes are lost to the NBA before their even play cricket for the island teams.
There is a lot of talk about the distribution of wealth in international cricket recent times. This doesn't necessarily just mean ICC funds, which come from running global events. It could also mean a share of bilateral revenues which are, at present, kept by the host nation. If the visiting team (in this case West Indies) was given, say, 15% of the broadcast rights of a series though, they might be able to fund some changes such as investment in youth and facilities.
West Indies need to play more first-class cricket, more than the maximum of seven games they play a year at present, and they need to play it on better wickets. They need more A tours (their last one to England was in 2018) and they need to ensure their best players are not lost to the Test format. The alternative is over time yet more series where England, India and Australia play each other, where the West Indies, Sri Lanka and others play yet less Test cricket and potentially end up lost to the format.
Whether, when faced with the powerful vastest interests of the “have’s” the ICC begins to adopt policies for the benefit of the “have not’s”, remains a big unanswered question upon which few are optimistic.
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated on 1st January 2024. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £69,601 All bets have an ROI +2.97%
A £4000 bank betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £73,601, a 1740% increase.
