Weekly Articles "Road to Riches" by Rich 'Tighty' Prew
The Road to Riches Weekend of 16th-17th March.
Coming up this weekend
- Horse Racing, Over the jumps at Kempton, Newcastle and Uttoxeter and on the all-weather at Wolverhampton and Southwell.
- Football, the FA Cup Quarter finals and four Premier League fixtures including West Ham v Aston Villa
- Rugby Union. The final round of Six Nations Matches including Ireland v Scotland for the title.
- Cricket, England’s test series in India concludes, the fifth test match in Dharamsala continues this weekend.
- Golf, the Valspar Championship on the USPGA and the Singapore Classic on the DP World Tour.
- Tennis, ATP Miami Open.
Free Tip
Six Nations Wales v Italy 2.45pm Saturday.
Last weekend was outside of a World Cup the best weekend of international rugby I’ve seen in a long time with two thrilling close underdog home victories from Italy and England and a 69 point game in Cardiff. The weekend overall saw 174 points and 20 tries scored in three games.
Now for the final weekend, where each game has something riding on it including the Cardiff game between Wales and Italy, where this column has an ongoing bet placed earlier in the tournament on Wales to finish bottom of the Six Nations at 4/1.
The current situation sees Italy in fifth on seven points with one draw in France, last weekend’s win against Scotland and one bonus point and a point difference of -37.
Wales are on three points with no wins, three bonus points and a point difference of -48, and have conceded 14 tries in this Championship. A first Six Nations whitewash since 2003 is a possibility
Italy last finished fifth in 2015 and have picked up the Wooden Spoon eight times in a row, and before this season only had one win in those eight years, in Cardiff two years ago with the famous late Capuozzo try from the half-way line.
We know, a few months after the World Cup, that Wales are in a full rebuild, introducing young players and grappling with a domestic game with the regions in financial crisis. A whole squad full of young and promising players is being pushed through the system far faster than would be ideal. With Alun Wyn Jones, Justin Tipuric, Josh Navidi, Rhys Webb, Dan Biggar, Leigh Halfpenny and now George North departing the scene it really has been the end of an era for Welsh rugby over the past 12 months.
The callowness of this Welsh team has been well-documented throughout the Six Nations, but Gatland’s final team sheet is another stark reminder.
There are 577 Test caps in the starting XV, 457 if you exclude North; an average of 38 caps per player. However, on the bench, that average plummets to just nine. Rowlands and Kieran Hardy contribute more than half of the 72 caps on the bench, 52 in total. In fact, only one other player has double digits. The three front row replacements have two caps between them.
Teams often go through a rebuild after a Rugby World Cup, but for Wales and Gatland, this is a far bigger task, as there isn’t even a foundation to start from. At least wth Tompkins and North back in the centre for this game the team has a more muscular look.
Italy meanwhile, with years of investment behind them into academies, are emerging from that long, long rebuild.
The fruits of that can be seen in four areas:
- Benetton and Zebre are competitive in the URC.
- The Italy U20 team is winning , they beat France away and Scotland at home this year and came within a point of winning in Ireland
- The national side under new coaching drew in France (albeit against 14 men), beat Scotland and came within 3 points of beating England.
- The squad has depth, with the likes of qualification players Ross Vintcent (South African born, Exeter Chiefs) and Louis Lynagh (son of Australian great Michael, recently of Harlequins) augmenting a young squad for this championship onwards.
Gone, it seems, are the days when Italy would compete for 60 minutes and then fall away in the last 20 with poor bench strength leaving them vulnerable late in games.
Yet despite these two teams being at different spots in their cycles odds for this match are Wales 1/3, Italy 11/4 and +8 on the handicap.
For Wales there are some bright spots in terms of individual talent, notably in the back row where Tommy Reffell and Aaron Wainwright have stood out in this Championship. There is also potential out wide and this of course is a completely different challenge to that offered by France last- weekend where a huge team offered a physical confrontation that Wales simply couldn’t match. Here Wales have a decent chance of parity up-front and in what could be an open high-scoring game of getting the win and potentially avoiding the wooden spoon.
However Italy have routes to avoiding finishing sixth (which would be a sign of huge progress after so many years at the foot of the table) that don’t rely on getting the win. A bonus point for scoring four tries would help, as would losing by seven points or less. Which is why I am surprised to see the handicap line as high as +8. Home advantage for sure accounts for Wales being favourites, but I couldn’t have them two score favourites here.
22 points Italy +8 at Evens Bet365, 10/11 generally
Jaguares
Six months after the Argentina rugby president revealed the Jaguares had been invited to return to Super Rugby in 2026, Super Rugby officials could re-introduce the South Americans back into the competition as early as next year if the Melbourne Rebels cease to exist.
The Jaguares made the final of the competition in 2019 before leaving the competition during the Covid pandemic due to restraints on international travel. New Zealand Rugby and Rugby Australia are fearful that the removal of a Super Rugby side could lead to a reduction in broadcast funding.
Just who would run out for the Jaguares remains to be seen, with players unlikely to have to return to the Super Rugby side to be eligible for the national team like they were ahead of the 2019 World Cup. Most likely the franchise would follow a similar path to the Fiji Drua, which offers local players the opportunity stay at home rather than having to head overseas to earn a living.
The Rebels fell into voluntary administration late last month and are looking for a white knight help them out of a $22m shortfall after being given a 60-day reprieve by the Federal Court. As it stands the side is likely to cease to exist at the end of the season.
Adding to the sense of urgency around a quick decision with the Rebels is that broadcast negotiations are set to heat up over the coming months, with the current deal to finish at the end of 2025. There are different conversations with South American; North American and Japanese interested parties. However while the Jaguares were one of the success stories of Super Rugby before their abrupt departure, the chopping and changing of the competition, which expanded to 18 franchises and played across four continents in 2016 before returning to 15 sides in 2018, made it difficult for the public to come to terms with the competition’s constantly changing format.
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The Road to Riches Weekend of 9th-10th March
Coming up this weekend
- Horse Racing, Over the jumps at Ayr, Hereford and Sandown and on the all-weather at Chelmsford City and Wolverhampton.
- Football, Premier League fixtures include Liverpool v Manchester City
- Rugby Union.Six Nations Matches include England v Ireland.
- Formula One, the Saudi Arabian Grand Prix
- Cricket, England’s test series in India concludes, the fifth test match in Dharamsala continues this weekend.
- Golf, the Players Championship at TPC Sawgrass on the USPGA.
- Tennis, ATP BNP Paribas Open at Indian Wells concludes.
Cheltenham Festival Package Tuesday 12th-Friday 15th March
The 2024 Cheltenham Festival Package for next week is live on the site. The cost is £199 for all of Neil’s bets over the festival, and the package sign-up can be found here.
Neil has written “What you will get for your money” for potential subscribers that you can find here.
Free Tip
Six Nations England v Ireland 4.45pm Saturday
England are in the unusual position of being 12-point home underdogs and 4/1 outright for this match, understandable enough though against opponents looking for a second successive Grand Slam and given their own mediocre form.
Ireland have won four matches in a row against England by 14,17,13 and 19 points and there is certainly an opportunity for this to be a one-sided match. 12 of the 13 matches between the two teams in the last ten years have been decided by 8 or more points.
Following their loss in Edinburgh in the last round England face the distinct possibility of finishing the Six Nations with two wins and three defeats for the fourth year in a row with Ireland at home then France in Paris to end the tournament.
For all their playing resources England are still amongst the Six Nations also-rans at this stage and there is an impatience for this to improve. Since taking charge in December 2022 England have played Scotland twice and lost both, played Ireland twice and lost both, played France once and lost by a record margin at Twickenham, and lost at home to Fiji.
Their only Six Nations victories have come vs Wales twice and Italy twice, fifth and bottom-placed sides last year, while the other competitive wins have come against the likes Japan, Chile, Samoa and Fiji, with two higher-profile successes against Argentina at the World Cup. Borthwick’s record as coach sees eight defeats from 19 games with only one win over higher-ranked opposition (Argentina) at the time.
A kind Rugby World Cup draw took them to the semi-finals where a well-honed but extremely limited game plan ran South Africa close. At the start of a new World Cup Cycle since the aim has been to bed in a new defensive system and develop a wider attacking game at the same time but in terms of really embracing a new generation of players team selections have been rather half-hearted with veterans like Care, Cole, Marler, Slade, Ford and Daly playing in this Six Nations as part of a team with nine players 29 or older. Probably in the short term the best players at the position, but none likely to be playing in the 2027 World Cup.
There have also been concerning noises coming out of training, indicative of a camp not entirely on the same wavelength with the apparent emphasis on honing the blitz defence rather than focusing on offensive skills. For example one leak has it that an England back touched the ball once in a particular training session.
That England’s attacking approach is extremely callow was seen in the 25 handling errors and 22 turnovers conceded against Scotland which derailed their game plan. With basic skill levels lacking it looked at times that the back line had never played together before.
To be fair to Steve Borthwick, his selections can be criticised but the current crop of players particularly in midfield and in the finishers out wide lacks the talent to play an expansive game. England have not scored more than two tries in a game since beating Chile last September.
England have scored at under two points per 22-entry against top ten ranked sides over the last two years with a win rate of 44%. Ireland at nearly 3 points per 22 entry with a win rate of 87% are unsurprisingly far superior.
As big underdogs here against a top two world side he has once again resisted the temptation to accelerate a complete rebuild. When is that rebuild going to come though? After this match England have fixtures against France, New Zealand x 3, South Africa and Australia for the remainder of the year.
At least 21 year old Manny Feyi-Waboso has been picked here, to give England at least one finisher in the team if they can get him the ball whilst to counter the huge Irish physicality George Martin in the second row will help.
Ireland are in the midst of their golden generation of players based on a mighty Leinster team and a four region domestic structure that works to develop players for the national team. They are aiming for a record-equalling 11th successive Six Nations Test win (level with England 2015-2017) and have won 84% of their matches under Andy Farrell including18 in a row at home and 20 of their last 21 games.
In a very settled side, they can introduce Jack Crowley for the retired Johnny sexton and not miss a beat whilst the Leinster machine has turned out the superb young second row Joe McCarthy into an already formidable front five. Their defence is exceptional.
On their way to an unprecedented back-to-back grand slam in the Six Nations era their last game of this tournament is at home to Scotland whose attack could worry them but it is difficult to see England doing the same.
I think it’s far more likely that Ireland wins this match by 20+ points, scoring 40+ points themselves than England keep this close.
22 points Ireland -12 points at 10/11 generally.
Nothing Ventured, Nothing gained.
English cricket via the ECB is currently attempting to sell equity in the Hundred franchises to overseas investors including IPL owners to maximise a one-off financial opportunity.
The ECB is in the final stage of consultation with the 18 first-class counties and MCC as it prepares to open up the eight Hundred teams for private investment later in the year. The target is to have the Hundred up and running with private investment for the 2025 edition of the men’s and women’s tournaments.
There is a list of interested investors from all over the world, including IPL owners and businesses from Pakistan, the United States and beyond, as well as sovereign wealth funds.
The ECB, under the leadership of chief executive Richard Gould and chairman Richard Thompson, long-time critics of the Hundred while in the same posts at Surrey, has established a “broad direction of travel” for the tournament that counties are currently providing final feedback on and is subject to change.
The ECB’s plan comes in two parts. The first would see new joint-ventures (being called New Co’s) set up between the ECB and each of the 18 first-class and MCC for teams at their venue. Half of the team would be owned by the ECB and the other by the host county. The two parties would agree on a percentage of the team that would be taken to market (there would be a minimum sale in place of, for instance, 25%).
Under this model, it could be that some teams are selling a 75% share, and others are selling just a quarter share. Either way, the proceeds of the investment would be split between the host county and the ECB, with the latter share being distributed through the game.
The second part would see the eight current Hundred teams play in a top tier until 2028 with “other options available for all other New Co’s”. What those options would be is as yet unclear. From 2029 teams from other venues could join the top tier, but any expansion would be down to criteria agreed this year.
The New Cos, including their investors, would run their Hundred team’s ticketing, marketing and branding, with the ECB running the competition itself.
These terms are said to be putting off top investors because they want a majority stake and control of the franchise, not a minority part or to be sharing with a county. They also fear that future expansion of the competition and possible promotion and relegation, which they are not interested in is not yet totally off the table.
The ECB meanwhile is keen to keep the counties involved and in control, in part to help the financial situation at non-Hundred owning counties.
Investors want, in a perfect world, majority equity ownerships of franchises, be they Hundred franchises, other franchises or first-class counties, and are said to be uninterested in minority positions without a route to control. They believe that more franchises in the Hundred does not necessarily lead to an increase in broadcasting or sponsorship value at the league level.
An alternative option, rather than joint ventures with counties, would be for the ECB to sell an agreed stake in each team, with the proceeds spread equally across the game. The eight Hundred venues could then receive substantial hosting fees, while the teams run ticketing and marketing themselves. The ECB hopes the model it has drawn up connects the counties and the Hundred and keeps purpose among counties that do not currently host a team to strive to have one in future.
How the ECB resolves the differing aims of the domestic game and potential overseas investors will determine the future path of the competition in terms of structure and ownership.
StattoBets Dave Monthly Subscription - Soccer - Tennis - Darts
Stattobets write ups, analysis and bets are available to monthly subscribers.
Results as at 1st January 2024 = points bet 39142 profit +2170 ROI +5.45% Full details here
Monthly subs are £50 a month and can be cancelled at any time. You can sign up here.
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated on 1st January 2024. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £71,656 All bets have an ROI +2.97%
A £4000 bank betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £71,656 a 1691% increase
The Road to Riches Weekend of 2nd-3rd March
Coming up this weekend
- Horse Racing, Over the jumps at Doncaster, Kelso and Newbury and on the all-weather at Kempton and Wolverhampton.
- Football, Premier League fixtures include Manchester City v Manchester United.
- Cricket, England’s test series in India concludes, the fifth test match in Dharamsala starts on Thursday.
- Golf, the Arnold Palmer Invitational on the USPGA and the Jonsson Workwear Open on the DP World Tour.
- Tennis, ATP BNP Paribas Open at Indian Wells.
Cheltenham Festival Package Tuesday 12th-Friday 15th March
The 2024 Cheltenham Festival Package is now live on the site. The cost is £199 for all of Neil’s bets over the festival, and the package sign-up can be found here
Free Tip
Super Rugby: Hurricanes v Reds 5.30am Sunday
This is the final match of the six match second round, dubbed the “Super Round”, of the 2024 Super rugby Pacific, all six games held in Melbourne.
This iteration of Super Rugby, its third season as a Pacific Nations competition, sees 12 teams, five from New Zealand, five from Australia and the new teams Fijian Drua and Moana Pasifika playing. 84 matches are played in a round-robin, followed by finals in a knockout format. The season culminates in a final to be played on Saturday 24 June, before the start of the 2024 mid-year international window.
Last year’s Super Rugby was won by the Crusaders from Canterbury, their 11th win in 28 competitions and 7th in a row in Super Rugby’s of various formats including until recently the South African teams.
The build up to this tournament has been marred by the Melbourne Rebels' woes and concerns about the competition's longer-term future. The Rebels fell into voluntary administration last month and are looking for a white knight to bail them out of a $22m deficit after being given a 60-day reprieve by the Federal Court. Rugby Australia has guaranteed the Rebels will complete the season despite being in administration and will make a decision on the future of professional rugby in the state of Victoria before the end of the Super Rugby season.
The Drua have been the biggest success of Super Rugby's expansion into the Pacific, reaching the playoffs at the second attempt last year and proving all but unbeatable playing at home in Fiji. Pasifika playing some games in Samoa won just one match last year.
The Rebels are symptomatic of a domestic rugby landscape already made miserable by Australia's calamitous World Cup campaign and struggling to attract young talent into the game against the competing attractions of a vibrant rugby league game.
Last year the Brumbies, Waratahs, Reds, Rebels and Force the five Australian regional sides managed just six wins from a combined 30 matches against New Zealand sides in Super Rugby. Even that 20% winning strike rate was an improvement on two decades of heavy losses to New Zealand teams that included a humiliating combined low of none-from-31 return against the Crusaders, Chiefs, Blues, Hurricanes and Highlanders in 2017.
New Zealand rugby has issues too, notably the drain of talent to lucrative deals in Japan and France, primarily by experienced internationals towards the end of their careers, and accentuated this year at the end of a world cup cycle.
Last season the Queensland Reds crept into the top 8 and the knockout stages last season winning 5 of their 14 games and have a new coaching team this year led by Les Kiss.
With the addition of former All Blacks props Alex Hodgman and Jeffery Toomaga-Allen to their pack the Reds will be aiming to challenge for Australian supremacy at least. Early indications are that the Reds will look to move the ball and unleash a backline that hasn't been as dangerous as it should be. In the first round they beat the Waratahs 40-22 headlined by Australian national team full-back Jordan Peteia. An encouraging start.
The Wellington Hurricanes lost to the Brumbies 37-33 in last year’s Quarter-Finals having won 9 of their 14 regular season games.
Number 8 Ardie Savea is absent on sabbatical in Japan and All Black hooker Dane Coles has retired and new coach Laidlaw has turned to the returning England loose forward Brad Shields to lead the team. TJ Perenara is fit again to tag-team with Cam Roigard, who plays this weekend, at scrum-half and Jordie Barrett remains a world class operator in the backline.
They began this season with a comfortable 44-14 win against the Western Force in Perth scoring six tries in tricky conditions.
This should be a high-scoring game, for which outright prices have the Hurricanes 2/7 and the Reds 11/4. The Reds are nine-point handicap underdogs. I do expect the Hurricanes to win and a quote of less than two scores seems to understate the potential they have compared to the Reds.
11 points Hurricanes -9 at 10/11 generally
Foothold
Hampshire County Cricket Club’s majority shareholder is in advanced talks to sell his stake to the part-owners of Indian Premier League team Delhi Capitals, GMR. The deal would be a landmark moment and make Hampshire the first county to be owned by an overseas franchise.
The benefits of buying a county for GMR include a foothold in the English game, an opportunity to develop its own players, and “first-mover advantage” when Hundred franchises are put out for investment.
Among the options being explored by the ECB is handing over a 50% share in the Hundred teams to the host county, to sell to investors if they wish.
According to a book about Hampshire published last year the business which includes the Test match hosting Ageas Bowl, a hotel, golf course and the club was valued at around £100m, with £60m of debt.
Hampshire are one of three counties, along with Northamptonshire and Durham, who are not member-owned. It is expected that more counties could move away from the member-owned model in the coming months at a time of rapid change in the game.
GMR have a portfolio of cricket teams around the world. They have a 50% share of Delhi Capitals and also own the Dubai Capitals in the UAE’s ILT20 and a share of Seattle Orcas in the USA’s Major League Cricket.
It is now almost certain that the Hundred, the England and Wales Cricket Board’s controversial short-form tournament will be opened up to private investment later this year
2024 is likely to be a year of significant change for English domestic cricket and by extension the Hundred as the global ownership landscape changes in an era of burgeoning T20 franchise competitions and investment from both within and outside the sport.
StattoBets Dave Monthly Subscription - Soccer - Tennis - Darts
Stattobets write ups, analysis and bets are available to monthly subscribers.
Results as at 1st January 2024 = points bet 39142 profit +2170 ROI +5.45% Full details here
Monthly subs are £50 a month and can be cancelled at any time. You can sign up here.
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated on 1st January 2024. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £71,656 All bets have an ROI +2.97%
A £4000 bank betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £71,656 a 1691% increase
The Road to Riches Weekend of 24-25th February
Coming up this weekend
- Horse Racing, Over the jumps at Chepstow, Kempton and Newcastle and on the all-weather at Chelmsford City and Southwell.
- Football, The Carabao Cup Final between Chelsea and Liverpool. Premier League fixtures include Arsenal v Newcastle United.
- Rugby Union, the third round of the Six Nations including Scotland v England.
- Cricket, England’s test series in India continues, the fourth test match in Ranchi.
- Golf, the Classic in the Palm Beaches on the USPGA and the SDC Championship on the DP World Tour.
- Tennis, ATP Opens in Dubai, Chile and Mexico.
Cheltenham Festival Package Tuesday 12th-Friday 15th March
The 2024 Cheltenham Festival Package is now live on the site. The cost is £199 for all of Neil’s bets over the festival, and the package sign-up can be found here
We also have two pairs of Club tickets for the Cheltenham Festival to give away, for Day 1 (Tuesday 12th March, two tickets) and Day 2 (Wednesday 13th March, two tickets). To go into a free draw for a pair just sign up to our Cheltenham Package on the link above by this Sunday, 25th February. Good Luck!
Free Tip
Six Nations Round 3 Scotland v England 4.45pm Saturday
England have not beaten Scotland since 2020, losing the past three meetings with their oldest rivals.
Scotland have one of their two games so far in the Six Nations, very unlucky not to beat France at the death a fortnight ago with a very marginal TMO decision going against them. That said they also missed a number of scoring opportunities and indulged in an aimless kicking strategy in the second half to really lose the initiative in the game having been 13-3 up. With hindsight Scotland needed to continue attacking when they had the opposition on the ropes, rather than merely park the bus and attempt to protect what they had during the second half.
The essential case for Scotland is as it has been for several years, with a very talented set of backs headlined by Finn Russell and winger Duhan Van Der Merwe and a competitive group of forwards. This talented group of players though hasn’t produced the results overall that their talent deserves.
Part of this has been questionable coaching, part of it unimpressive on-field leadership. Russell and Rory Darge, a young flanker, are currently co-captains. In both games this year including when facing the massive Wales fightback in Cardiff in round one, the side has lacked ruthlessness and probably some confidence borne of a generation of not winning much.
England have won both of their games in this Championship so far, albeit against the two weakest sides in 2024’s Six Nations Italy (winning by three points) and Wales (winning by two points), coming from behind in both games and especially against Wales finding a way to win amidst adversity.
England post World Cup at the start of a new cycle are obviously in a transitional phase, supplementing the remainder of an experienced core by introducing younger players having lost Farrell and Lawes most notably and currently dealing with major injuries to the likes of Tom Curry. The absence of a Test quality number 8 means currently playing one of the more effective forwards Ben Earl out of position and the side has missed a midfield “banger” whilst Tuilagi and Lawrence have been injured.
Coach Borthwick has unearthed a couple of talents in Ethan Roots and Chandler Cunningham-South and encouragingly George Martin (lock) and Lawrence (centre) are fit to face Scotland. What you get from Martin and Lawrence is punch and “go forward” and that could make a difference in these tight games in the remainder of the Championship.
What England do not have yet is an exciting style of play and you can't get the ball wide unless you have the punch in the middle, so let’s see if the return of these players counts. Even so, the England back three lacks pace and finishing in its current configuration though the selection of Furbank at full back ahead of Steward (brilliant under the high ball, but one paced in attack) is a nod towards a more expansive style.
In defense the former South Africa coach Felix White’s new blitz scheme is being introduced, a work in progress but showing signs of being very effective. A key to the game will be whether they get to Finn Russell consistently, or whether Russell breaches the speed in narrow areas and frees the outside backs.
This should be a very close game, and with home advantage outright prices have Scotland favourites, Scotland 4/6 England 13/8. England are +4 on the handicap having been +2 at the beginning of the week
At these prices, getting more than a penalty goal in handicap points in what is likely to be a one score game either way deep in the match, England +4 appeals.
10 points England +4 at 11/10 Bet365, Evens BetVictor, 10/11 generally available
The Greatest?
In the recent Super Bowl, the Kansas City Chiefs became the first back-to-back NFL champions in 20 years and Quarterback Patrick Mahomes has joined Tom Brady and Joe Montana as the only players to win 3 Super Bowls and 3 NFL MVPs. Mahomes reached the mark the fastest of the three players.
Since Mahomes was drafted six years ago, in addition to 3 Super Bowls and 3 Super Bowl MVPs he has twice been the NFL MVP, a three-time all-pro, 6 Pro Bowls, twice the NFL’s leader in passing yards and thrown for an NFL-record 5,614 total yards in a season.
His play-off record is an unparalleled 15-2 and he has currently won 7 straight playoff games.
His status as the NFL’s best current player is unarguable and that has brought huge opportunities off the field too with a $500m contract. He also has ownership stakes in the Kansas City Royals (MLB), Sporting Kansas City (MLS), Kansas City Current (NWSL), the Alpine Formula 1 Team and businesses Whataburger, Whoop, and Hyperice.
This year Mahomes became the 1st Quarterback in NFL History to win a Super Bowl while carrying the largest cap hit at the position. He has trailed by double digit points in all three Super Bowls he has won. At the age of 28 he has to be seen to be on his way to challenging Brady as the best ever Quarterback
The fact that this non-smooth-sailing, problem-solving on the fly, defense-heavy version of the Chiefs (20 games allowing less than 25 points this season, an NFL season record) cemented the back to back Super Bowl win during their dynasty makes it all the more impressive. It was a team in which Mahomes had to dial in his flair and talent because it’s what the defense and the limits of the 2024 offense demanded, with lots of check-downs and scrambling.
This was very different from the big plays of the 2018-2021 teams, especially before Tyreek Hill left the team. Mahomes can obviously still do that. If the Chiefs get their hands at another elite deep threat at wide receiver in the April draft, then the team is likely to be the Super Bowl favourite next year.
The 2022 and 2023 Chiefs were by common consent the two "worst" teams of the Patrick Mahomes era and both won Super Bowls. This team went on the road in the playoffs and took down both Number one 1 seeds. The Chiefs faced Numbers. 2, 3, 4 and 6 ranked offenses in the playoffs, which combined to average 28.3 points per game this season and beat them all. These offenses averaged 15.8 points in the play-offs against the Chiefs. It was an all-time great playoff run defensively.
The Chiefs winning with their current roster is a reminder that you don't need to fix Every apparent weakness to have success. Do you have the Quarterback and Coaching Staff? Do you have a few difference makers around the Quarterback? Then you have a chance. Mahomes and Kelce can carry the team through despite the offense being not as good as previous teams.
The last time the 49ers lost to the Chiefs, the team made a massive trade up to select a quarterback with high end dual threat potential, Trey Lance. The move ultimately didn’t pan out, but teams know that to beat Mahomes you need either:
1. A fellow superstar at Quarterback
2. His Offensive line severely affected by injury If you don’t have a special talent at Quarterback.
I think we will see more teams continue to go all-in to land those high end potential players
This is why I believe Chicago will and should draft Caleb Williams the presumptive top Quarterback in this year’s draft. It’s why teams such as Atlanta, Pittsburgh and Minnesota should be all over the other first round Quarterbacks in this draft, and there are as many of five of them this year in what looks to be an excellent draft for offensive talent.
A “good” Quarterback might get you to the playoffs. To beat Mahomes you need a great Quarterback, and some luck too.
StattoBets Dave Monthly Subscription - Soccer - Tennis - Darts
Stattobets write ups, analysis and bets are available to monthly subscribers.
Results as at 1st January 2024 = points bet 39142 profit +2170 ROI +5.45% Full details here
Monthly subs are £50 a month and can be cancelled at any time. You can sign up here.
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated on 1st January 2024. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £71,656 All bets have an ROI +2.97%
A £4000 bank betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £71,656 a 1691% increase
The Road to Riches Weekend of 17-18th February
Coming up this weekend
- Horse Racing, Over the jumps at Ascot, Haydock and Wincanton and on the all-weather at Newcastle and Wolverhampton.
- Football, Premier League fixtures include Manchester City v Chelsea.
- Cricket, England’s test series in India continues, the fourth test match in Ranchi next Friday.
- Golf, the Mexico Open on the USPGA and the Kenya Open on the DP World Tour.
- Tennis, ATP Opens in Qatar, Los Cabos and Rio.
Cheltenham Festival Package Tuesday 12th-Friday 15th March
The 2024 Cheltenham Festival Package is now live on the site. The cost is £199 for all of Neil’s bets over the festival, and the package sign-up can be found here
Free Tip
European Champions Cup Rugby
The tournament has reached the Knockout stages, with the last 16 taking place after the Six Nations in April.
I’ve already recommended Racing92 pre-tournament at 16-1 each-way. Frustratingly, along with La Rochelle, performed disappointingly in their Pool with one only win and merely crept into the last 16. They therefore have a tough draw away at tournament favourites Toulouse, a match between two top-four teams in the French Top 14 league.
The last 16 draw is as follows:
Toulouse v Racing92, winners at home to Exeter v Bath
Harlequins v Glasgow winners at home to Bordeaux v Saracens
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Leinster v Leicester winners at home to Stormers v La Rochelle
Northampton v Munster winners at home to Bulls v Lyon.
Given the draw at Toulouse, I therefore began searching for an alternative bet for the knock-out stages in the other side of the draw, specifically in the Quarter away from Leinster who qualified alongside Toulouse as the top seeds after the Pool stages. Leinster and Toulouse, if they win out, have home draws all the way through to the final at Tottenham Hotspur.
Current outright odds are as follows:
Leinster 2/1
Toulouse 5/2
Bordeaux 6/1
La Rochelle 7/1
Bulls 7/1
Northampton 20/1
Each way odds are 1/3 two places.
Looking at the bottom Quarter of the draw the two home teams are Northampton and the Bulls from Pretoria. Northampton currently sit top of the Gallagher Premiership with nine wins from 12 matches and won four out of four Pool games in Europe to get a home tie at this stage of the tournament. In that Pool they went to Limerick and beat Munster 26-23 and now have home advantage against the same opponent.
If they win and face the Bulls at home in the Quarter-Finals, they have the advantage that the South African teams don’t tend to travel well in this competition, the demands of travelling distance often lead to squad rotation with sides having to juggle domestic and European commitments.
Northampton are a very attacking style full of young players now breaking through into the England six nations side such as Tommy Freeman, Fraser Dingwall, Finn Smith, Alex Coles and Tom Pearson alongside the more established Alex Mitchell, Courtney Lawes and Lewis Ludlam.
I think they should be the side that plays Leinster in semi-finals at the end of a gruelling Six Nations campaign and after a possible Ireland Grand Slam. They will 100% be underdogs to win in Dublin but might have a sporting chance of knocking off the favourites with their playing style, at which point the each-way component of the bet below would kick-in.
8 points each-way (1/3 1,2) Northampton to win the European Champions Cup at 20/1 Coral/Ladbrokes, Paddy Power, 18/1 Bet365 and BetVictor
Hamilton
Just before the launches of the 2024 F1 cars, the back end of the off-season came news that Lewis Hamilton will join Ferrari for the 2025 season, exercising his release option from the Mercedes contract that was extended late last season. At that time Hamilton had wanted a new three-year deal whilst Mercedes had offered him a one year deal, the two sides eventually compromising on a one year deal with a further one year option to extend it through to the end of 2025. That compromise sowed the seeds of an opportunity for Ferrari, who first contacted Hamilton last May, at which time he had said no, but his answer had changed in the New Year without a multi-year contract secured at Mercedes.
Even by F1’s lofty standards this is major news for the sport. Hamilton was a celebrity long before Netflix’s “Drive to Survive” made household names out of the majority of the F1 grid, and is a driver who wields his influence to address causes that have nothing to do with sport and therefore became a name that transcended his sport.
2025 is the last season before major regulation changes for 2026 which will see sweeping new aerodynamic and power unit regulations introduced and a clean slate for everyone after the Red Bull domination of the current era of regulations. It is typical for F1 pecking orders to change at such times, it being very difficult for them to do so in a period of static regulation.
While Ferrari have been up and down with their aerodynamic packages over the last couple of decades, their power unit has either been the class-leader or very close to it in recent years. With the power unit set to be a key factor in 2026 and with rivals Red Bull set to debut their first in-house designed engine in partnership with Ford that same year Hamilton will fancy his chances of taking the fight from a power unit perspective.
It is possible that Ferrari's development direction could be ahead of Mercedes which made Hamilton make an unexpected move. Ferrari was the faster car than Mercedes last season and have consistently made big improvements to their car. It is possible that Hamilton saw better promise in Ferrari's 2025 car than he did in Mercedes.
Hamilton will have looked at Mercedes’ development path over the last couple of years, how they struggled to add performance and he would have compared that to what he saw from the outside at Ferrari and what they told him they had achieved and what they could achieve.
Ferrari remain without a World Championship title of any kind since 2008 and have won just four races in the last four seasons all of them coming in the first half of last year following the last major rules reset.
Hamilton has a long-stated wish to drive for Ferrari. Ferrari's new team principal Fred Vasseur was Hamilton’s team boss in his junior days. The two have remained close ever since.
Obviously this is a major game-changer for the F1 driver market. Hamilton will drive alongside LeClerc, Carlos Sainz is left to find a new team and Mercedes is searching for a partner for George Russell. At the end of this season too Red Bull are likely to be replacing Serio Perez as Verstappen’s partner. Talented young drivers such as Lando Norris and Alex Albon can suddenly see career opportunities opening before them.
Hamilton won six World Championships at Mercedes and was worth billions to the brand. The valuation of the Mercedes F1 Team rose from $389 million in 2013 to $3.8 billion now and he will have give Ferrari the opportunity to leverage the company's unique limited supply business model and brand to drive sales. Whatever success Hamilton achieves on the track at Ferrari commercial success is more or less guaranteed given the mutual profiles of both driver and team.
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