Weekly Articles "Road to Riches" by Rich 'Tighty' Prew
The Road to Riches Weekend of 27th-28th January
Coming up this weekend
- Horse Racing, Over the jumps at Cheltenham, Doncaster and Uttoxeter and on the all-weather at Kempton and Newcastle
- Football, the FA Cup fourth round
- -NFL, the Conference Championships
- Cricket, England’s test series in India continues.
- Golf, the Pebble Beach Pro-Am on the USPGA and the Bahrain Championship on the DP World Tour
- Tennis, ATP Open Sud de France in Montpellier
Cheltenham Festival Package Tuesday 12th-Friday 15th March
The 2024 Cheltenham Festival Package is now live on the site. The cost is £199 for all of Neil’s bets over the festival, and the package sign-up can be found here
Free Tip
The 2024 Six Nations
Ireland won their fourth Grand Slam in the 2023 Six Nations. This year in the aftermath of the recent Rugby World Cup there is high turnover in each team’s squad due to retirements and injuries. That's the nature of a World Cup cycle, pus this time several marquee players are missing chasing new opportunities. Antoine Dupont the French Captain for example is seconded to the French Olympic Sevens team, Louis Rees-Zammit is trying the NFL’s International Player Pathway.
That rebuilding element varies from squad to squad, and the number of players in the 2023 World Cup Squad still in the 2024 Six Nations squad is as follows: Scotland 28 Ireland 25 France 22 Italy 20 Wales 19 England 17. Scotland and Ireland should maintain some continuity, Wales especially have a very young squad and England are the most injury-hit side, unsurprisingly given the high demands on their top players from club and country. Only one team has a new coach, Italy.
The tournament starts on Friday 2nd March with the possibly defining fixture this year, France v Ireland in Marseille
It being a five match per team competition half of the teams play three games at home and 2 away, the other three vice versa. This time round both France and Ireland have three games at home, but France have the advantage of not travelling to Dublin where they were beaten last year.
France have to travel to Murrayfield and Twickenham, the Scotland game in particular looks a tricky one, but even without Dupont the squad is immensely strong with established players constantly supplemented by recruits from the highly successful U20 team of recent years.
Ireland have to deal with the retirement of Jonny Sexton and that first game trip to France but have comparatively little squad turnover and a lot of depth. With Wales and Scotland at home and a winnable trip to England, the triple crown is very much on the agenda.
England also have three games at home but will be underdogs at home to Ireland and at Scotland and France in a squad without seven of their Rugby World Cup Semi Final XV. Without them hit it might be an ask to expect more than 2 wins this year. For the longer term, following a World Cup semi-final assisted by a kind draw in which they rarely veered from the kicking and territory strategy, it would be good to see some signs of an attacking style emerging though the loss through injury of the form centre Ollie Lawrence this week is a blow. England’s recent record in the Six Nations is uninspiring with a 40% win record across the last three championships and 50% across the last six.
Wales have a 21-year-old captain and also are in the post Wyn-Jones and Biggar era. There are huge problems in the domestic game, and a lack of squad depth across key areas such as front row and the backs. A tough championship awaits.
As usual Italy are the rank outsiders, one win would be success.
Scotland have an established squad and a well-developed attacking style in which Finn Russell and the backline particularly two world class wingers operate. With continuity they are a dark horse to outperform their odds following three wins and third place finish last season
Outright Odds for the tournament are:
France 5/4, Ireland 6/4, England 6/1, Scotland 14/1, Wales 20/1, Italy 500/1
France are 5/2 to win the grand slam, Ireland 11/10 to win the triple crown (beat England, Wales and Scotland). The latter is my main suggested bet this season
20 points Ireland to win the Triple Crown at 7/5 with Betfair Sportsbook/Paddy Power, 6/5 BetVictor, 11/10 William Hill and Betfred
The other bet is far more speculative. Scotland are favourites to win in Cardiff first up. I think they’ll win in Rome and beat England at home. Anything other than a loss in Dublin would be a surprise. That’s theoretically three wins to match last season. Could they beat France at home mid-tournament to get a fourth win and a chance of a share of a title/the winner coming down to tie-breakers starting with points difference? I’d suggest beating France at home is a reasonable possibility this year.
5 points Scotland to win the Six Nations at 12/1 Betfred and William Hill
From Rugby to the NFL?
Last week’s news that Gloucester, Wales and British Lions wing Louis Rees-Zammit has chosen to attempt a career in the NFL came as a complete surprise, coming as it did just a fortnight before the 2024 Six Nations and hours before the announcement of the Wales squad for the tournament.
Rees-Zammit is entering the NFL International Player Pathway which gives elite athletes from around the world and a number of different sports the chance to earn a place on an NFL roster and increase the number of international players in the league.
To start with Rees-Zammit goes to a training camp in Florida at the end of this month and if he does well enough he will be allocated to an NFL team and into their training camp through the month of August ahead of the new NFL season in September.
With no experience of playing the sport and much to learn any new International player faces a very long shot of making a roster in their first year and are more likely to stay within the International Player Pathway for the following off-season.
To start with the IPP pays a fee of $50,000, getting onto an NFL practice squad pays $175,000 whilst the minimum player salary for a rostered player is $750,000 plus for a marketable player like Rees-Zammit the probability of marketing dollars on top from an organisation very keen to expand globally. Top NFL wide receivers can currently attract contracts in the region of $22-23m a year guaranteed.
Rees-Zammit is though to have turned down a $300,000 contract renewal from Gloucester and a massive offer from Japan to chase the dream.
Rees-Zammit has been listed as a running back/wide receiver intending to play as a hybrid player. At 6 ft 3 and 190 lbs and super-fast I would suggest wide receiver looks the most likely position where his speed and ball skills would translate well. The fastest recorded player in the NFL is the Dolphins Tyreek Hill at over 22mph in game. Rees Zammit was recently recorded at 24.2mph by tracking data.
As to other positions he doesn’t have a typical body type for running back, where payers tend to have a lower centre of gravity. Cornerback given his ball skills and tackling experience would be a possibility, but it’s a highly technical position requiring mirroring wide-receivers. Kick and Punt returner would certainly be an option, but the role is gradually being legislated out of the league for safety reasons, and its less and less a full-time role on an NFL roster.
Even at wide receiver, the task is far from simple. There is an NFL history of track stars translating to the position, the most famous was the US Olympic Hurdle Renaldo Nehemiah with the 49ers in the 1980s, but by and large these speedsters were limited to “go” routes and the deep passing game. To have a long future at the position a variety of routes need to be learnt, which very few players from other sports have ever succeeded at.
It's a long shot for Rees-Zammit to transfer successfully but at 22 years old we can understand why it’s worth a go. If it doesn’t work he won’t be short of offers to return to Rugby with the prospect of the 2025 British Lions Tour to Australia on the horizon too.
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The Road to Riches Weekend of 20th-21st January
Coming up this weekend
- Horse Racing, Over the jumps at Ascot, Haydock and Taunton and on the all-weather at Lingfield and Wolverhampton
- Football, Premier League matches
- NFL, Divisional Round of the Play-Offs
- Rugby Union, European Champions Cup Rugby Pool Matches
- Cricket, England’s test series in India starts next week.
- Golf, the Farmers Insurance Open on the USPGA and the Ras Al Khaimah Championship on the DP World Tour
- Tennis, the Australian Open
Free Tip
Investec Champions Cup Pool 4 Sale v La Rochelle Sunday 1pm
This weekend sees the final round of pool matches, ahead of the Six Nations and with the last sixteen and the start of the knockout stages in April.
It’s been a strange competition this year, particularly for the form of the French sides which has been very mixed. Whilst Toulouse and Bordeaux have been hugely impressive, Bordeaux’s 55 points against Saracens last weekend was a sensational performance other teams such as Racing, Stade, Lyon, Bayonne and holders La Rochelle have struggled at times and in some cases motivation has clearly been a factor with far from first choice team selections for many away matches.
The competition format has attracted a lot of grumbles, notably the disadvantage of some sides having to travel to South Africa for matches then turn round and play at home six days later, whilst others haven’t had that travel at all. Meanwhile the South African sides have often sent B teams to Europe, unsurprisingly when often faced with a home tie just six days later.
Anyway, we are now at the business end of the four pools, where four of six teams go through from each.
Pool 4, the “Pool of Death” this year featuring Leinster and La Rochelle, now sees a straight shoot-out for the fourth qualifying spot between Sale and La Rochelle.
La Rochelle, defending champions and winners for the last two years and favourites to do the treble before the competition started began with a 16-9 home loss to Leinster and went down narrowly to the Stormers in Cape Town 21-20. These results mirrored what has been an inconsistent season domestically too, only 8th in the Top 14 with six wins and six losses so far.
Right up against it and needing to win their last two Pool matches to qualify they then routed Leicester 45-12 last Sunday and are now in a position to win and in this weekend in Manchester. Under Irish coach Ronan O’Gara La Rochelle are a fearsome prospect when on song, with a big pack headlined by Skelton and Alldritt and huge fitness helping their “keep the ball alive” mantra.
Going to Sale sees them visit another side in more mixed form this season compared to last. Last season they finished runners-up to Saracens, this year they are fifth in the Premiership with 7 wins from 11 matches. In the Champions Cup they have one win, 28-5 at home to Stade Francais but had a rough draw of away ties, where they lost 37-27 to Leinster and 31-24 to the Stormers last weekend.
Without the injured George Ford and Tom Curry, Sale are still a competitive well drilled outfit, but I doubt they can live with La Rochelle even at home.
11 points La Rochelle -6 at 10/11 widely available.
Racing to France
The misunderstood Owen Farrell, hounded out of International rugby for his mental well-being because of abuse from supporters will no longer be committed to playing in domestic rugby to ensure he is available for selection for the national team. With the financial rewards under the English and French salary caps very different, its not a surprise that Racing92 in Paris and Head Coach Stuart Lancaster would like him to move. Should Farrell in the near future sign a two year deal with Racing, he’d be absent from the England side until at least 2026.
Under the RFU’s current rules, the England coach is unable to call up players playing abroad, which in this era of player movement and differing salary caps is hugely anachronistic. It is a policy borne out of a negative mindset and all about defending the domestic game. That Farrell aside a huge talent like Henry Arundell has moved to France despite the edict shows how ludicrous it is.
That Farrell is likely to be headed to Racing92 isn’t s surprise. They are glamorous and pay top whack. There is an old link between the Farrell family and Lancaster. Despite the playing budget and attracting such superstars as Kolisi and until recently Finn Russell, Racing have only won the French Top 14 six times in their history and once since the current chairman took over 19 years ago. They’ve reached three European Cup finals, losing them all.
The salary cap in France is £9.3m per club. If clubs then provide international players for France, they earn more than £200,000 per player for the season. In England, the salary cap now stands at less than £6m, which is one of the motivating factors behind the exodus of players to club rugby in France and Japan. Next season the salary cap rises to £6.4m per Premiership club, though few clubs are likely to be able to afford that much. Compensation in England for the loss of players, and they are often away for well over half of each club season, is relatively insignificant. French clubs are at a massive advantage through the funding they receive from their municipalities and regional authorities. In England, individual benefactors keep most of the clubs going but without hope of any reward on their “investment”.
Meanwhile Wales could be set to lose a promising young wing, following recent reports regarding the future of Mason Grady. The Cardiff player has been linked with four Premiership clubs, and could be on his way out of Wales when his contract expires this Summer. Should Grady leave Cardiff in favour of a move to England, he will rule himself out of future Wales test matches, due to agreements in place with the WRU. Welsh players with less than 25 test match appearances playing outside Wales are ineligible to play for Warren Gatland’s side.
With Welsh rugby in a parlous financial state the rule risks damaging the national side hugely, as many players are going to leave due to the rewards on offer elsewhere given the risks involved in a short career at the top level.
The argument goes that Wales has to retain a cap rule. Without it, virtually the entire Wales squad will be based outside the country, which would wreck Warren Gatland's preparation programme and the Welsh teams would have to pay overseas clubs for additional player release time. However it has to be in place alongside at least competitive wage offers, of which there is only a slim prospect.
This is why the 25-cap rule is going to have to go soon. Wales can’t expect their up and coming players to limit their earnings for the lure of a national jersey. It's akin to forcing Gareth Bale to have to have played for Cardiff or Swansea for the first three years of his International career.
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The Road to Riches Weekend of 13th-14th January
Coming up this weekend
- Horse Racing, Over the jumps at Kempton, Warwick and Wetherby and on the all-weather at Chelmsford City and Wolverhampton.
- Football, Premier League matches include Manchester United v Tottenham
- -NFL, the start of the Play-Offs, Wild Card Weekend
- Rugby Union, European Champions Cup Rugby Pool Matches
- Golf, the American Express on the USPGA and the Dubai Desert Classic on the DP World Tour
- Tennis, the Australian Open
Free Tip
European Champions Cup Rugby Bordeaux-Begles v Saracens Pool 1 5.30pm Sunday
Bordeaux are one of the best funded teams in the French top 14, and thanks to recruitment in the off-season now field an all-international back-line featuring Lucu (Dupont’s understudy), Jalibert at 10, Moefana at 12, and first choice wingers Bielle-Biarrey and Penaud.
Well coached and incisive they at an exciting team to watch, currently second in the domestic league. They have won their last six games across all competitions averaging 34 points a game.
Saracens came into this competition in the top five in the betting, but that’s probably because of past performances rather than form this season, where they are currently 6th of 10 with five losses in their first eleven matches.
Such is the structure of the ERCC this season, with four teams from each pool making the knockout stages that Saracens are still a reasonable prospect to go deep in this competition but they are not the force that they were. Recent form is also troubling, having lost four of their last six games including in the Premiership to Sale, Northampton and Leicester.
Speculation that a talismanic figure at the club such as Owen Farrell is about to leave for Racing92 might be unsettling and is a measure of the difficulty the domestic game is going to have retaining talent with the relative financial strength of the French and English games.
Still for now Saracens can field a line up including Jamie George, Maro Itoje, Ben Earl, Farrell and Elliot Daly.
Bordeaux’s results so far in Europe are a 41-5 win away at Connacht in bad weather and a 36-17 home win against Bristol before Christmas. Saracens faced a tough task in the first match in the competition, travelling to altitude in South Africa and losing 27-16 to the Bulls before returning home and beating Connacht 55-36.
Understandably enough Bordeaux are strong favourites (2/5 outright) and -8 on the handicap but the weather forecast for Sunday in the area is for a lot of rain. Expecting a flair team to win by more than a score against gritty experienced opponents might be a bit optimistic. After all if it is a game of kicking and penalties, Farrell is going to go toe-to-toe with Jalibert.
Saracens +8 at 10/11 widely available
Changes
With legalised gambling in much of the USA now NFL teams that make mistakes with the rules regarding the reporting of injuries can create separate problems for themselves and the league.
The first tangible example of a problem came this year from the $100,000 fine on the Atlanta Falcons and then-coach Arthur Smith for failing to disclose that running back Bijan Robinson was ill in Week 7. Though he played in the game, Robinson had limited snaps and only one touch. Concealing this of course had an impact on the game planning of their opponents the Buccaneers but also led prop bettors to believe Robinson was fine. His one-touch match created an outcry among those who might have gone in a different direction if they’d known Robinson was sick and who bet on Robinson to exceed the over/under for yards and touchdowns.
The league’s decision to fine the Falcons makes it a lot easier to establish liability for deliberate fraud or misrepresentation, intentional or negligent. The challenge in a case like this becomes putting together a damages award big enough to make the case worth a lawyer’s while. Person by person the amount lost is usually too small to worry about. Add it all up however, and the money becomes potentially significant.
The league has clear rules regarding injury disclosure. Bettors reasonably rely on the fact that the information is accurate. If it’s proven that the team hid the truth, it becomes much easier to show that fair compensation is owed to bettors who relied on it.
It would be very difficult at this point for the teams and the league to claim that they have no duty to the bettors. With the NFL earning revenue from every sports book sponsorship (just watch Red Zone on a Sunday night where US viewers are encouraged to place accumulators on Draft Kings sportsbook with suggested bets) it can get, it can’t claim that the general betting public shouldn’t rely on the accuracy of the injury reports especially since the NFL has never made any effort to add a “there’s a chance the teams are hiding injuries” disclaimer to the weekly injury information.
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The Road to Riches Weekend of 6th-7th January
Coming up this weekend
- Horse Racing, Over the jumps at Newcastle, Sandown and Wincanton and on the all-weather at Kempton and Southwell
- Football, the FA Cup third round.
- -NFL, Week Eighteen, the final week of the regular season
- Rugby Union, Gallagher Premiership matches
- Golf, the Sony Open in Hawaii on the USPGA and the Dubai Invitational on the DP World Tour
- Tennis, ATP Brisbane Open then Australian Open Qualifying
Free Tip
FA Cup Ante-Post ahead of the third round weekend
In the last decade nine of ten FA Cup winners have come from the top six teams, the exception being Leicester City in 2020. On a longer perspective only three of the last 25 winners have been non-top six sides, Portsmouth and Wigan being the other winners. In that 25 year period 10 of 25 runners-up have been from outside the top six in the market.
In the modern era all Premier League teams see the Cup as of secondary importance to Premier League position/prize money and will rotate their way through the competition should they progress deep into the latter stages.
Each year in this column I try to identify at least one team outside the top of the market in this competition before the third-round stage. Obviously some luck of the draw is required at each round. The best I have done so far is a losing semi-finalist (Southampton in 2020).
My short-list involves mid-table Premier League teams who are a)not also competing in Europe (the FA Cup will then become a third priority) or fighting to get into Europe or b) aren’t at serious relegation risk.
This time round I was tempted by Wolves and Everton (notionally on 26 points pre-deduction and likely to pull away from the bottom six in the second half of the season) but both have third round draws away at fellow Premier League clubs and Brighton, but they are still in Europe, a possibility too for the top six and too short at 16-1.
Each way terms in this market are half the odds 1,2. The market is, understandably enough, headed by Manchester City at 3-1, 10/1 bar the favourite and 16/1 bar the top six plus Newcastle.
In the end I alighted on Bournemouth at 66-1 over West Ham at 25/1. Bournemouth have QPR, in the bottom three of the Championship, away in the third round. In good recent form, with a goal-scorer in Solanke (hopefully he stays in the upcoming transfer window) for the latter stages if they get that far and obviously deeply unfashionable from a betting perspective compared to higher profile mid-table sides. I think they are speculative each-way value.
10 points each way (1/2 1,2) Bournemouth to win the FA Cup at 66/1 Bet365, Betfred, BetVictor, Coral/Ladbrokes.
Changes
As we reach the end of the NFL regular season change is afoot at a number of teams who are looking ahead to next season. Four Quarterback changes were made ahead of the Week 17 games and next week will see “Black Monday”, traditionally the day of coaching changes for teams looking to rebuild into next season and beyond.
The most high profile Quarterback change was at the Denver Broncos, with Russell Wilson benched. After a disastrous first season at the Broncos last year, Sean Payton arrived as Head coach at the beginning of this season. At first glance Wilson has been better as the Broncos recovered from a 1-5 start to be on the fringes of play-off contention in late season. Wilson is tied for sixth in the league in touchdowns with 26 but is 18th in passing yards and has only one 300-yard game this season. In the background though there have been clashes. The Broncos reportedly threatened to bench Wilson as early as October, if he didn't re-work his contract. The league and the players union reportedly got involved. Ultimately, it didn't keep him from being benched.
Payton values a Quarterback who executes the play called with rhythm and consistency. At this point, Wilson is best when he extends to create a second play and operates out of structure. Long term his style does not suit the offense Payton wants to run.
The trade with the Seahawks for Wilson will go down as a big mistake, involving three players going in the other direction, two first round and two second round draft picks. After the trade the Broncos then extended Wilson’s contract, which comes into effect at the end of the season and he now won’t play a snap under that new $242.6m deal. As part of that deal Wilson will make an additional $37m in guaranteed money if he can't pass a physical by early March 2024, it was that guarantee that the Broncos sought for Wilson to waive. An injury to Wilson in either of Denver's last two games of the season could have triggered that guarantee, hence he was benched.
The Broncos are on the hook for $39m guaranteed to Wilson in 2024 and $119m total in 2024 and 2025, a huge proportion of a $220m salary cap now to be tied up in “dead money”.
At least Denver hasn’t doubled down on its mistake and now moves on, possibly to drafting a young Quarterback, possibly to another veteran as a “bridge” or possibly both.
Wilson is likely to do a a one-year deal for the veteran minimum salary with a new team, forcing the Broncos to pay the balance and then re-sign in 2025 or hit the market again. Candidates his services could include the Raiders, Patriots, Steelers, Commanders, Falcons and Vikings. The Patriots and Commanders are likely to be in position to draft a potential franchise Quarterback and Wilson could help them along in the short term. The Raiders, Steelers, Falcons and Vikings are going to need a solution to their Quarterback issues most likely outside the draft.
Elsewhere in the league Lamar Jackson is currently favourite to be the 2023 MVP, drawing into focus the failure of quarterback-needy teams to not take a second look at him last off-season before he did a new deal with Baltimore.
In 2022, the Browns turned the NFL upside down by giving quarterback DeShaun Watson a five-year, $230m contract every penny of which was fully guaranteed at signing. Multiple owners publicly complained about Cleveland’s willingness to disrupt the way things had been done.
Come 2023, the Ravens dared the rest of the NFL to try to sign Jackson to an offer sheet by applying the non-exclusive franchise tag. Any team could have put on the table an offer that the Ravens would have been forced to match or lose their franchise player.
One team after another made it clear they weren’t interested in the man who is now poised to win his second MVP award. Jackson would have massively upgraded the Quarterback situation for multiple teams at the cost of two first round picks to acquire Jackson.
Those two first round draft picks are not an excessive price for a franchise Quarterback. For example the Browns gave up three first-round picks and three mid-round picks for Watson. The Panthers traded two first-round picks, two second-round picks, and receiver D.J. Moore for quarterback Bryce Young.
Anyone could have tried to acquire Lamar Jackson. No one wanted to do it. Because everyone wanted to be sure that the Watson contract would be an aberration, not a trend. The reality is that owners wanted to stop other owners from duplicating or expanding the practice of giving veteran players five-year fully-guaranteed contracts.
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Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated on 1st July 2023. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £67,126 All bets have an ROI +3.05%
A £4000 bank betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £71,176 a 1678% increase
The Road to Riches Weekend of 23rd-24th December
Happy Christmas everyone. The column will be back for the first weekend of January.
Coming up this weekend
- Horse Racing, Over the jumps at Ascot, Haydock and Newcastle and on the all-weather at Lingfield
- Football, Premier League fixtures include Liverpool v Arsenal
- -NFL, Week Sixteen.
- Rugby Union, Gallagher Premiership matches
Free Tip
Gallagher Premiership Bath v Harlequins 3.05pm Saturday
After 2 rounds of the European Rugby Champions Cup the Premiership returns over the Christmas Period. These two sides sit 2nd and 3rd in the table after 8 rounds, both with 5 wins.
The first two rounds of the ERCC, within which both these sies are in Pool 2 have seen a surprising 75% overall win rate from English sides with vaunted French top 14 sides such as La Rochelle, Racing and Stade Francais winless to date. It’s been suggested that the folding of three English teams in the last 18 months (Wasps, Worcester and London Irish) and the incorporation of many from those squads into the remaining 10 top English teams has given the home sides strength in depth particularly with rotation the order of the day with the European games coming thick and fast. We’ll see how the remaining Pool rounds play out to see if this is borne out.
Bath are currently unbeaten in Europe, first beating Ulster 37-14 at home and following that up with a 39-32 win in Cardiff. For them, the competition take s a tougher turn in January with games against Racing 92 and a formidable looking Toulouse side.
Having languished in the domestic doldrums for a number of seasons investment in the playing squad under new owners has seen the club’s fortunes taking a big step forward with Finn Russell as the marquee player and the likes of Lawrence, Barbeary for England and Redpath for Scotland in the hunt for Six Nations selection.
Harlequins have had a tougher run of European fixtures to start off that campaign. They had a brilliant 31-28 win at Racing92 to begin the tournament before trying to match the Toulouse flair at home last weekend and getting well beaten 47-19. The first game saw Marcus Smith impressive in an open game, the second with Quins more on the back foot saw the defensive frailties exposed.
With both teams coming off a fortnight of tough games played at full strength squad rotation could be the order of the day here. The weather forecast is for dry weather which will suit Quins but they will need to add some solid nuts and bolts to their typical style, the type of which were absent against Toulouse in terms of defensive structure and kicking game. I think it will be a very close game, and I will take the visitors with the points.
11 points Harlequins +7 at 10/11 William Hill and +6 10/11 generally available
An offensive problem.
With three weeks to go of the NFL regular season half of the teams in the league are currently fielding back-up Quarterbacks, such is the injury attrition rate at the position this season.
This is a concern for teams off the field as well as on. Whether it is in ticket sales or television ratings, the numbers show by and large that fans do not want to watch backup quarterbacks.
I count 12 teams that have started two Quarterbacks this season, another 4 that have started three. The Browns and Vikings have needed four. Eighteen of Thirty-Two teams have had to turn to their backup.
On the field Offensive numbers are down this season compared to recently. Just taking two obvious measures. So far this season, and for the whole of 2022, 25 of the 32 NFL teams are averaging less than 25 points a game, compared to 17 in 2020 and 19 in 2021.
In terms of Total offensive yards per game, 22 teams so far to date average less than 350 yards per game compared to 19 last year, 17 in 2021 and only 12 in 2020.
There are various factors at play. Within a $200m+ salary cap, its tough to roster two starting quality Quarterbacks, especially for teams who have a franchise Quarterback on a non-rookie salary, the best of which are now in the region of $50m a year.
Secondly the college game has cylically produced a spate of talented defensive pass rushers in recent seasons (T.J Watt, Micah Parsons, Myles Garrett, Nick Bosa to name a few) and many teams prioritise having two strong edge rushers to pressure Quarterbacks and these players are fast and skilful.
Edge rushers have become smaller and slender and are fantastically athletic. In the NFL size is mattering less. This gives offensive lines a problem because broadly these players are still huge, relatively cumbersome and struggling to match the athleticism being shown at Edge.
There are structural reasons why offensive lines are struggling to perform well too. The 2011 (updated in 2021) collective bargaining agreement between the players union and the league put restrictions on padded practices, a shorter off-season calendar plus one less pre-season game, for health reasons. From February to Mid/Late April players can’t work with coaches and gone are the gruelling two-a-day practices that have long been a staple of training camps. In their place, teams are able to conduct one full-contact padded practice per day accompanied by a walkthrough period. The league has also placed limits on the number of full-contact padded practices during the regular season. Teams are permitted a total of 14 for the year with 11 of those practices conducted during the first 11 weeks of the season (a maximum of one per week).
This is what the players asked for, and it’s affected the overall quality of play. This was most notably seen in the early weeks of the season, with defenses dominating but has continued through the season. Offensive lines require synchronisation and togetherness and developing more cohesion at game speed would likely reduce injuries to Quarterbacks.
As well as these changes the college game, from which NFL players are drafted, is in an era of dominance for wide open spread offenses, where linemen are not required to make many of the blocks expected of them in the pro game. For example in many college teams, Quarterbacks are not required to line up under center. Now these players and their linemen enter the NFL relatively inexperienced and with teams unable to invest the time in training them to be ready for the NFL, All the reductions in practice time and contact have wreaked havoc on team’s ability to develop Offensive line depth, and that's made injuries a bigger issue.
There are two final points. The value for money for rookie contracts under the CBA, particularly the ability to have a fifth year option on first round draft picks has reduced the number of “average” veterans being offered second contracts. It is more financially efficient to draft a young replacement from a salary cap perspective. Secondly the league currently lacks a rookie development league, as NFL Europe once was, to give young/fringe players game time opportunities to develop. Perhaps that is one option the league will consider if these current trends of excess injuries and lower points/yards continue.
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