The Road to Riches Weekend of 29th-30th June

Coming up this weekend

 

• Horse Racing, On the flat at Chester, Doncaster, Lingfield, Newcastle, Newmarket and Windsor.
• Football, Euro 24 continues.
• Cricket, The T20 World Cup final in Barbados.
• Formula One, the Austrian Grand Prix
• Golf, the John Deere Classic on the USPGA and the BMW Invitational on the DP World Tour.
• Tennis, Wimbledon begins.

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Free Tips

2024 General Election: Constituency Markets Part Two (with help from Neil Channing)

Following on from last week we’ve had a betting scandal (within which, more news to come probably) continuing what has been a terrible campaign for the Conservatives.

Reports are that moments like “D-Day” and “Gamblegate” are making a difference primarily because they mean it’s less likely undecided voters will go back to the Tories, making it more likely that the catastrophe scenario of less than 100 and possibly less than 50 seats might become a reality.

A change or error of a mere percentage point or two at the national level, or alterations in voter efficiency or turnout, could produce very different results next week particularly for Conservative seat numbers. We are facing an extent of change which is difficult to model.

Against that background here’s another selection of 2024 General Election constituency markets for betting value:

Bridlington and the Wolds

These days this is my constituency, where the Conservatives have a 22,000 majority. Big in footprint, with four towns in the constituency accounting for less than half of the electorate and big swathes of rural voters.

First things first Reform/right wing minor party didn’t stand last time and there’s definitely a market for them in this area. It’s potentially though 10,000+ votes missing from the Conservative majority this time and as in many seats this opens the door to a potential change in the winning party which in this case would be Labour, second last time.

At the time of writing prices are Conservative 4/6 and Labour 11/8. Electoral calculus had Labour winning. As you will see in a minute, this was a bit of a shock to the local Labour party. The latest EC had Reform winning!

I expected the Labour campaign to be all guns blazing when early campaign I turned up at a local constituency campaign meeting to see what was what to find that the NEC had parachuted in a non-local candidate, where the person is committed to campaigning two times a week in neighbouring Scarborough and Whitby, a higher profile winnable “battleground” seat and the local activists are asked to go there weekly too. In that constituency Labour are 1/7 to overturn a 10,000 majority which should be a done deal but despite this through the campaign if anything the Labour strategy has been to pour more resources into the battleground seat.

At the start of the campaign one local activist said to me “We hope to get closer to be in a position to persuade the party to put resources into us next time”.

Now nearly a month later after the national campaign we’ve seen, it might be close, and could even be a three-way marginal. I was given the Labour party canvassing returns last week, where they’ve got round the major town and covered about 5% of the voters in the constituency to find the Labour vote at 40.6%. This figure flatters Labour, being canvassed in urban areas but still, Conservative 4/6 Labour 11/8 looks a bit unbalanced to me.

One of the themes of this election night and being picked up in many of the recent MRPs is extreme Tory weakness in rural seats that gives a chance of turning seats like this Red for the first time in generations.

15 points Labour to win Bridlington and the Wolds 11/8 Bet365

Huntingdon

John Major’s old constituency where currently Labour are 4/5 favourites (Conservatives 10/11) to win what would appear to be a very close battle this time.

Conservative majorities were 19,000 in 2019 and 14,000 in 2017 and there incumbent MP has stood-down meaning a new Conservative candidate this time. Back in the 1990s Major had a huge 36,000 majority here, the biggest in the country but boundary changes in 1997 were the first step in reducing the mega-majorities with very Conservative areas transferring to North West Cambridgeshire.

This time round we have Reform in the constituency, where they were absent last time and it is their presence this time that helps turn this into an ultra-marginal. Electoral Calculus have Labour winning by 3%, You Gov’s MRP has it as a toss-up.

With the bookmakers readily suggesting that Labour are comfortable favourites elsewhere with Conservative majorities of 22,000+ this constituency stands out with a lower Conservative majority going in and a backable Labour price.

20 points Labour to gain Huntingdon at 4/5 Bet365 and Paddy Power (1.8 on the Betfair Exchange)

Waveney Valley

A seat that straddles the borders of Norfolk and Suffolk, new to this Parliament borne from East Suffolk and Bury St Edmunds, in which co-leader of the Greens Adrian Ramsay runs. This is a very interesting one as a recent small poll (500 voters), albeit commissioned by the Greens themselves showed that they were in the lead here (and in North Herefordshire) by 37% to Conservative 24%. Wednesday’s Electoral Calculus had Conservative 29.5% Green 29%.

With market prices of Conservative 4/5 Green 15/8 (3/1 a week ago, 10/1 a month ago) I thought it was worth a deep dive.

The context for the Greens in this election is that they are positioned to the left of a centrist Labour party a home not just for environmental votes but left-wing protest voters. The Greens are very odds-on to hold Brighton Pavilion and win Bristol Central and second favourites to win North Herefordshire, Waveney Valley, Sheffield Central and Leeds Central and third favourite in another 16 seats.

In Waveney Valley Mid-Suffolk council has a very strong Green majority (20 out of 24 seats) giving them the knowledge and date to run a local parliamentary campaign.

Consensus would have Green voters concentrated in left wing urban seats but rural Green support is a factor too, which it needs to be for the Greens here. Often it's dismissed as NIMBYism/using council elections to vent (which some of it will be) but it's often genuine. This election might provide an unusual example of what happens when normally uncompetitive areas for minor parties become competitive, and a Green vote really matters in what outwardly looks a very safe Conservative seat.

10 points Greens to win Waveney Valley at 15/8 Bet365 

Finally a look at a potential Reform constituency. Farage is 1/10 to win Clacton and the latest MRPs have Reform winning anything from just that seat to 5 seats next week, against a background of Reform rising up the national polls towards 20% since Farage’s announcement of standing and taking over as leader earlier in the campaign, in some cases overtaking the Conservatives into second place.

Reform are well placed in two ways in this campaign. The natural home of the right of centre protest voter unhappy with politicians in general and those Brexit supporters who would contend that they’ve been let down by the implementation of Brexit. Whilst there is undoubtedly a ceiling on Reform support, and Farage has come under extra scrutiny for his views on Putin/Ukraine etc, his core support aren’t going to be fazed by that. The issues of protest and “a real Brexit” will Trump (sic) that.

Watching discourse over Clacton during the campaign it became clear that were Labour and the Conservatives to co-operate then the combined vote share could deny Farage a seat. Presumably a worthy goal for the next Parliament for both parties. When asked about that, the head of the Labour constituency association in Clacton said “over my dead body”. So that’s that. We get Mr Farage in Westminster attempting his Trump-lite reverse takeover of the opposition party then.

Ashfield

Before the “Get Brexit done” election of 2019 and the big Conservative wins in leave-voting Red Wall seats Labour won this seat in each of 2017, 2015 and 2010 as an ultra-marginal. The constituency mixes a strong leave bias with historic old mining towns.

This time round Bet365 have Labour and Reform 10/11 each of two. You Gov’s MRP has the seat as a toss-up. Electoral Calculus has Reform 2% ahead, with the complicating factor that there is a very strong Independent Candidate (local council leader, ex Lib Dem who won 28% in 2019) who they have winning 25% of the vote.

It is this split in the left-leaning vote which wasn’t a factor in the 2010-2017 elections which I think may see Lee Anderson home.

15 points Reform to win Ashfield at 10/11 Bet365

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Going down

For the second time in league history, the three promoted sides into the Premier League were relegated last season. For those who fear the gulf between Premier Leagueand Championship is becoming impossible to bridge, that is a worrying sign.

Also, but for Nottingham Forest’s four point deduction for breaches of the league’s Profit and Sustainability rules, it wouldn’t even have been close. The other interest at the bottom came from Everton, before a closing run of 13 points from five games, but they wouldn’t have been in the mix either had it not been for their own 10 point deduction, subsequently reduced to six.

Sheffield United’s tally of 16 points was the third worst in Premier League history, level with Huddersfield in 2018-19 but with a goal difference that was 12 worse. The 104 goals they conceded was the worst ever in a Premier League season. But what makes this season stand out is that the 24 points Burnley achieved were the joint 10th-lowest in Premier League history and Luton’s 26 points the joint 16th-worst; the average of the three was 22 points; the previous lowest average for the three promoted sides was 27.3 points in 2008 (Sunderland, Birmingham, Derby). On only one other occasion has the average been under 32, in 2021-22 when Brentford, Watford and Norwich managed 30.3.

That two of the worst three performances ever have come in the past three years is a cause for concern, but each of the three sides who came up last season had their own problems. Luton, with a tiny budget and a small ground were always likely to struggle but performed creditably. They may have ended up with just a point from the three games, but they led at home against each of Manchester City, Arsenal and Liverpool.

Sheffield United lost three of their best players from their promotion campaign on the eve of this season, with Iliman Ndiaye and Sander Berge sold and Tommy Doyle’s loan from Manchester City coming to an end.

In terms of the Championship’s capacity to compete, Burnley are the big worry given how impressive they had been in winning the Championship, far more was expected of them. They ended up being undone by the number of mistakes they made at the back, particularly when trying to play out.

Only once before, in 1997-98, have all three promoted sides gone down and it’s worth bearing in mind that last season all three promoted sides (Fulham, Bournemouth and Forest) stayed up. That said, there have been 12 occasions when two or more of the promoted sides have gone down immediately, and three of those have come in the last four seasons, six in the last 10. The days when a Blackburn, a Newcastle or a Forest could come up and finish in the top four, as happened in the first three seasons of the Premier League, are long gone; Wolves in 2018-19 are the only promoted side to finish in the top eight in the past 17 seasons.

In the season ahead at least one of the newly promoted clubs will be up against it as Leicester City have PSR problems and an impending points deduction as well as a new manager appointment to get right.L

Ipswich and Southampton have, in Kieran McKenna and Russell Martin, progressive young managers and plenty of young talent but its going to be an uphill battle for both. What may help all three teams is the possibility/probability of other FFP points deductions elsewhere in the league, and a few clubs will be scrambling in the early part of this summer to sell players to comply with the PSR rules.

As it is the artificial construct of PSR is going to be an ongoing issue. Leicester City for example may lack top quality commercial management for sure, but with a billionaire owner committed for over a decade to the City and the club, are not at any financial risk. Yet their playing upside this time round in the top flight is capped by their commercial potential and ground size.

Nottingham Forest too, whose spending motivation was assembling a squad that could survive in the Premier League, are an interesting case study. They did not spend in 2022-23 in a particularly coherent manner but the intentions were good: Staying up, moving forward, competing, everything a club’s supporters want from a newly promoted club. It was only the weakness of Luton, Burnley and Sheffield United that allowed that strategy to succeed this time, and there’s no guarantee they’ll be as lucky this season.

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Betting Emporium results

The detailed results page has been updated on 1^st January 2024. They can be found by clicking RESULTS

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A £4000 bank betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £73,601, a 1740% increase.

 

 

The Road to Riches Weekend of 22nd-23rd June

Coming up this weekend

 

• Horse Racing, On the flat at Royal Ascot, Ayr, Haydock, Lingfield, Newmarket and Redcar.
• Football, Euro 24 continues.
• Cricket, The T20 World Cup in the Caribbean and USA continues.
• Formula One, the Spanish Grand Prix in Barcelona
• Rugby Union, Summer Internationals include Japan v England and South Africa v Wales
• Golf, the Rocket Mortgage Classic in Detroit on the USPGA and the Italian Open on the DP World Tour.
• Tennis, ATP Rothesay International and Wimbledon Qualification.

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Free Tips

2024 General Election: Constituency Markets part 1 (with help from Neil Channing)

With the result of the election a done deal, the electorate’s desire to inflict a punishment beating on the Tories trumping (no pun intended) all other factors, attention has focussed on the secondary possibility (no more than that) that there is a different opposition party come 5^th July, with the Lib Dems overtaking the Tories.

There are some remarkable trends within recent polling. In the latest You Gov, the Conservatives are in 5th place with the under 50's. Behind Labour, LibDems, Greens and Reform. A poll has Reform overtaking the Tories into second place. The same poll had just 30% of 2019 Tory voters voting the same way this time. There are widespread reports of panic in Tory safe seat associations. Sunak and team were campaigning in Henley (Conservative for over 100 years) and other seats with over 20,000 majorities. Meanwhile there does appear to be a dip for Labour in Headline voting intention polls which does primarily seem to be driven by a swing from Labour to Lib Dem in the south, presumably tactical voting that makes the Anti-Tory vote more efficient. Overnight on July 4^th might be unmissable television, whatever your political persuasion.

We're at the point where numbers vaguely in the areas above are going to break the modelling and seat predictions. Other than a Labour majority, who knows what this would come out as in practice and this has to produce the prospect of betting market inefficiencies and potentially a generational election result. Overall, at the time of writing the Betfair Conservative Seats market has the band 50-99 as favourite. At the start of the campaign 100-149 was favourite.

Within that context a lot of firms and the Exchange offer markets on single constituencies (though not multiples). Neil has been getting stuck into some of these markets for value, and over the next two weeks this column will highlight six constituencies, three a week, with recommended bets.

Please note that markets here can be thin, and prices short-lived. The below are correct at the time of writing, I have been through a dozen drafts of this during the week as prices go on some constituencies with so many MRPs out, apologies if these prices are short-lived!

Here are this week’s three constituencies:

Ynys Mon (Anglesey). A constituency with a smallish electorate and has been held by Labour the Tories and Plaid Cymru in recent years. The current Conservative MP was parachuted in by Johnson and is under investigation by parliament due to Partygate. Apparently she occasionally pops to Anglesey by Helicopter! This makes it a labour versus PC marginal. You gov MRP has Labour winning by 9, UK Polling report by 14, Electoral Calculus by 10 and an ITV Wales poll says Labour win.

Neil want to bet Plaid Cymru though. It’s one of just two seats they are really targeting so they are great at getting out the vote. They have a really solid base here and always get 10,000 which is normally enough to win or lose in a photo. The reason he likes them is the Vaughan Gething factor. Since all the polls above he has lost a vote of no confidence. A poll on Senedd elections since that had Labour well down and Plaid Cymru well up and we think national news will depress the labour turn out.

Coincidentally, I went to Anglesey at Easter. Seemed like a good idea at the time. It was very wet, and they didn’t like the English much. Or maybe it was just me.

Bet365 have Labour 1/2, Plaid Cymru 6/4. William Hill did have a market live but not currently.

20 points Plaid Cymru to win Ynys Mon at 6/4 Bet365

International cricket is currently in white ball mode at the T20 World Cup in the Caribbean and the USA but soon thoughts will return to Test Cricket and England’s Summer series against the West Indies and Sri Lanka.

England have 15 Tests until the away Ashes series in the winter of 2025, and those begin this summer without the 700 wickets and 188 Test caps of James Anderson, and with a bowling attack that will lack experience and will need to be rebuilt in the absence of both Anderson and Stuart Broad.

After the first Test against the West Indies at Lord’s in July, England will have lost over 1,300 wickets worth of Test experience in successive home matches.

Life after Anderson will not be simple, though on the one hand being able to experiment against relatively weak opponents this summer will help.

There is no shortage of depth in England’s bowling stocks. You could name 15 players who are on the fringes of Test selection. Mark Wood is the most established of those names and should have a big part to play this summer and will, fitness permitting, be on the plane Down Under in 18 months’ time.

Beyond him Jofra Archer, Olly Stone and Saqib Mahmood are three out-and-out quicks who are returning from serious injuries. Jamie Overton, another contender, is currently injured.

Dillon Pennington at Nottinghamshire was name-checked by the selectors recently but the 25-year-old lacks experience, while Gus Atkinson and John Turner fall into the same category. Atkinson, who earned a two-year England deal last October and has the platform of playing for Surrey, is the closest of those three but still has only played 16 first-class games.

When looking at genuine off-the-shelf reinforcements for England in a post-Anderson world, there are probably four bowlers who qualify – Matthew Potts, Josh Tongue, Ollie Robinson and Sam Cook.

Potts, who shone during his debut summer in 2022 and who also has a two-year England deal, played just one Test against Ireland last year. His record for Durham this season is average. But he shone for England Lions on flat pitches in India last winter, is durable and has the ability to succeed at Test level. Expect him to get a serious run this summer.

Tongue did enough in his two Tests last year, including one at Lord’s against Australia, to suggest he has a serious future but pectoral injuries have kept him out since August.

Cook currently tops the Division One County Championship averages with 25 wickets at 11.20 for Essex. But there is a fear his lack of pace counts against him. Yet if he is going to get his chance, it will surely be this summer in home conditions which are likely to favour him the most.

Robinson, meanwhile, has 76 Test wickets at 22.92 which is an encouraging start to his Test career. But fitness issues, which flared up again in India last winter, mean he has work to do to convince England to trust him again.

One thing is clear there will be no perfect answers for England once Anderson goes.

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Full details here

Monthly subs are £50 a month and can be cancelled at any time. You can sign up here. 

Betting Emporium results

The detailed results page has been updated on 1^st January 2024. They can be found by clicking RESULTS

If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £69,601 All bets have an ROI +2.97%

A £4000 bank betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £73,601, a 1740% increase.

 

 

The Road to Riches Weekend of 15th-16th June

Coming up this weekend

• Horse Racing, On the flat at Beverley, Catterick, Chepstow, Haydock and Lingfield and over the jumps at Bangor-on-Dee.
• Football, Euro 24 begins in Germany.
• Cricket, The T20 World Cup in the Caribbean and USA continues.
• Golf, next week, the Travelers Championship on the USPGA Tour and the KLM Open on the DP World Tour.
• Tennis, ATP Queens Club and Halle Opens.

2024 European Championship Football (from tomorrow)

Our Euro 2024 write ups, analysis and bets are included in Stattobets Dave's monthly subscriptions at £50 pcm (you can cancel at any time even after just one month)

You can subscribe here .

Dave has compiled a truly amazing free resource for everyone on the Euros, more details are below, and this is available in Googledocs here

Royal Ascot 18^th-22^nd June

The full package of bets and analysis on every race over the five days of Royal Ascot next week by Neil Channing will cost £199, and subscription is available now here

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Free Tip

Birmingham Bears v Yorkshire Vikings, Vitality Blast, Friday 7.05pm

We are still in the early stages of the Groups in this competition. A reminder that the 18 counties are split into two regional groups, North and South, and each play 14 Group games. From there the top four in each Group progress to the Quarter Finals, the top two in each Group getting a home tie. From there the four winners progress to finals day at Edgbaston, always a highlight of the domestic cricket calendar, this year played in mid-September.

The tournament has a lower profile recently with the advent of the Hundred each August and this year the early stages coinciding with the T20 World Cup.

In the North group this sees the hosts Birmingham Bears, perennial contenders play the Yorkshire Vikings. The Vikings are currently second in the North Group with three wins after an opening loss whilst the Bears sit outside the top four with two wins and two losses. It’s early days though, both should be in contention for the knockout stages.

The Yorkshire Vikings include Joe Root this time and a strong batting line-up led by the top four has performed in the three wins. After being restricted to 151-7 in the opening loss to Leicestershire, Yorkshire have scored, 104-2 182-1 and 186-6.

That top four consists of former England players Ashley Lyth and Dawid Malan opening the batting, captain and Pakistan test batsman Shan Masood at 3 and Root at 4.

The two openers have had a strong start to the competition.

In four games Malan, who under a year ago was opening the batting for England in this format, has 153 runs at a strike rate of 139 whilst Lyth, a fast scoring left hander has 152 runs at a strike rate of 153 in 3 games.

In this game they will face a Bears bowling line-up led by two fast bowlers who have been on the fringes of the England team in the last few years Richard Gleeson and George Garton and the team’s top wicket taker the Pakistan International Hassan Ali, with nine wickets.

One day/T20 matches at Edgbaston can be played on dry/slow wickets, can be dry and slow though typically later in the season than this. That said in the first and only game to date at Edgbaston in this tournament 149 all out beat 127 all out. In that match openers top scored in each innings, which makes sense as the openers have an advantage on slower pitches playing against a harder ball on a relatively fresh pitch.

Yorkshire Vikings top batsman odds for this game are as follows:

Malan 11/4

Root 16/5

Lyth 7/2

Ferreira 9/2

Malan 6/1

Bar 7/1

For me the choice here is between the openers. Malan is understandably the favourites. In 335 career T20 games he’s scored 9,153 runs at an average of 32 and a strike rate of 129. Lyth has 192 career games in the format, scored 4,580 runs at an average of 25 and a strike rate of 146.

At the prices, Malan is the conservative option, Lyth the more aggressive one with his higher strike rate meaning he can score quickly if he gets in, albeit his figures indicate a less consistent player.

I am going to pick Lyth for this column.

10 points Ashley Lyth Top Yorkshire Vikings batsman at 7/2 Betfair Sportsbook/Paddy Power, 100/30 SkyBet, 31/10 BetVictor, 3/1 Bet365 and Betfred.

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Procession

For the first time in F1 history, the top 10 drivers at the Monaco Grand Prix recently started where they finished. The Grand Prix is in a stunning location, with huge history attached, but as a racing spectacle in the absence of bad weather it fails every year. This year’s race was an extreme example of that.

A dramatic first lap saw Sergio Perez and Kevin Magnussen tangle at high speed, collecting the other Haas of Nico Hulkenberg as debris scattered the track and caused a red flag. During the race suspension, everyone changed tyres, so there was no need to pit again as two tyre compounds had been used by the drivers. There were then no overtakes in the top 10 for the entire 77 laps of the Grand Prix.

Even drivers such as Verstappen and Hamilton who did pit in the final 30 laps for fresh tyres was able to gain a position as the other drivers were able to drive round four seconds off their top pace in an attempt to nurse their tyres to the end of the race.

There are very few spots to make an overtake in an F1 car at Monaco, since 2017, F1 cars have been two metres wide and around 5.5 metres long, much bigger than in previous generations. In essence the cars have outgrown this classic street circuit.

The weekend still provides many opportunities for F1, primarily with existing sponsors and attracting new ones but such was the lack of racing this year that there have been calls for change. Christian Horner said:

"Monaco is such a great place to come racing but the cars are so big now, we just need to look at whether we can do something that introduces an overtaking area or at least the potential of an overtake.

"I think it's something collectively that F1 should look at because it's such a great place, there's so much history here, but everything evolves and I think the cars are so big now if you compare them to cars of 10 years ago, they are almost twice the size. So it's something, collectively as a sport with the promoter, for us to look at how do we just introduce an overtaking opportunity."

In the last 30 years, the highest number of overtakes at the Monaco Grand Prix was 23 in 1997, but that was a wet race. The most overtakes in a dry race was 17 in 2006, with 16 overtakes at the 2011 and 2013 races. In 2003 and 2021, there were zero on-track overtakes, so it's not a new issue for F1, even when cars were slightly smaller in the past.

Even without the red flag this year, Monaco is always a guaranteed one-stop race due to the relatively low tyre degradation and difficulty of overtaking, even with fresh rubber.

When Pirelli returned to F1 in 2011, the Monaco race that year featured different strategy options with the top three drivers on one, two and three-stop strategies due to the high tyre wear.

Over the last decade though, the simple strategy has been to make just one pit stop, which is another reason for the lack of action. Sir Lewis Hamilton has suggested one solution:

"I would say maybe having special tyres for this race, so you have more pit stops, would create more variability. I think they should come up with some new formula for it rather than just do the same."

Monaco is one of only four tracks which were on the original 1950 F1 World Championship calendar, Silverstone, Monza and Spa being the others, and apart from the cancelled 2020 race, it has featured on the schedule every year since 1955.

StattoBets Dave Monthly Subscription - Soccer - Tennis - Darts

Stattobets write ups, analysis and bets are available to monthly subscribers.

Results as at 1^st January 2024 = points bet 41601 profit +2048 ROI +4.92%

Full details here

Monthly subs are £50 a month and can be cancelled at any time. You can sign up here. 

Betting Emporium results

The detailed results page has been updated on 1^st January 2024. They can be found by clicking RESULTS

If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £69,601 All bets have an ROI +2.97%

A £4000 bank betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £73,601, a 1740% increase.

 

 

The Road to Riches Weekend of 8th-9th June

Coming up this weekend

• Horse Racing, On the flat at Beverley, Catterick, Chepstow, Haydock and Lingfield and over the jumps at Bangor-on-Dee.
• Football, Euro 24 begins next Friday in Germany.
• Cricket, The T20 World Cup in the Caribbean and USA continues.
• Formula One, the Canadian Grand Prix in Montreal
• Rugby Union, the Gallagher Premiership final between Northampton and Bath
• Golf, the US Open next week at Pinehurst.
• Tennis, ATP Libema and Stuttgart Opens.

2024 European Championship Football (from 14^th June)

Our Euro 2024 write ups, analysis and bets are included in Stattobets Dave's monthly subscriptions at £50 pcm (you can cancel at any time even after just one month)

You can subscribe here 

Dave has compiled a truly amazing free resource for everyone on the Euros, more details are below, and this is available in Googledocs here

Royal Ascot 18^th-22^nd June

The full package of bets and analysis on every race over the five days of Royal Ascot by Neil Channing will cost £199, and subscription is available now here

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Free Tip

Premiership Rugby Final

Bath v Northampton, Saturday 3pm, Twickenham

Northampton and Bath, first and second place finishers respectively in the regular season table this season meet in the Premiership final this weekend. This season has represented somewhat of a changing of the guard with Saracens about to embark on a rebuild and Exeter further along that path, and this should be a great game between two very attacking teams.

This is Northampton’s first Premiership final in ten years, reached via a relatively low scoring win 22-20 over Saracens last weekend. Bath meanwhile beat last season’s finalists Sale in a thriller, 31-23 to reach their first final in over a decade. They are hoping to win the club’s first Premiership title in 28 years, since their era of dominance in the 1990s.

Northampton have been the best English club team all season, headlined by the half-back partnership of Alex Mitchell and Finn Smith and the back-line but with a very efficient high energy pack too, really the first year they have an all-round game where the attack is complemented by a forward pack that can give as good as it gets. Within that pack this is the end of an era with Courtney Lawes and Lewis Ludlam off to French rugby at the end of the season.

Bath were in the doldrums for many years and two years ago finished bottom of the league, albeit a league without relegation, but their new South African coach Johann Van Graan has engendered a recovery with huge investment from local owners taking them to competitiveness.

They too have a pair of top half-backs in Ben Spencer and Finn Russell (the object of a big chunk of that investment), back quickly from a recent torn groin with Ollie Lawrence outside and their pack dominated their semi-final.

This promises to be a close and potentially high scoring contest as both teams put the emphasis on attack.

At this distance, you would probably favour Northampton, especially if they get ahead early. Bath will miss the hemmed-in nature of their own small-ish ground that provides a sizeable home advantage, there is no way that even a capacity crowd in the wider spaces of Twickenham could possibly repeat the atmosphere at the Rec. Northampton also probably have more strings to their attacking bow to take an opportunity or two more after a tight contest up-front.

Northampton are 4/7 favourites for the game, Bath 6/4 underdogs. Northampton are -4 on the handicap. I’ve been waiting all week to see Northampton -3, but no joy. I still expect Northampton to win by a score or so.

11 points Northampton -4 points at 10/11 generally

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All Academic

English football is producing better quality players and more of them. 12 years of a huge investment in Academy development has delivered winning England junior men’s teams and a senior team in Fifa’s top four.

Subject to the constraints of the Profit and Sustainability regulations (PSR) it has never been more important for clubs to produce home-grown players although that does not necessarily mean in order to play for the first team, as moving on these players represents pure profit for owners seeking to balance the PSR books. They are an important commodity different from players brought in from elsewhere who have transfer fees and sell-on obligations in their cost base.

Examples of these players and how PSR has altered their paths in the game are seen throughout Premier League football. Conor Gallagher was Chelsea captain through much of last season and yet is a prime candidate to be moved in the summer window. This would have been inconceivable pre-PSR, a former Academy player of that age and ability would have been a mainstay of the squad for years to come.

Mason Mount, Brennan Johnson and Anthony Gordon were all sold by their clubs, in part, to mitigate against spending elsewhere. Scott McTominay, Emile Smith Rowe might go the same way at their clubs, as well as Gavi at Barcelona. Cole Palmer and James Trafford were both profitable sales for Manchester City. So too Jaden Philogene and Cameron Archer once of Aston Villa, who left last summer with buy-back clauses.

The PSR compliancy dictates modern football strategy, from the richest clubs to the poorest. It has been the force in creating the multi-club system but for homegrown players they have never been more valuable, but the volatility of their situations has increased markedly. That volatility and mobility away from their Academy clubs has to be seen as a negative for the home club fans, who typically root for home-grown players to break through and succeed. They are “one of our own”.

Developing players for sale rather than first team is not a new phenomenon. Chelsea pioneered it in the 2000s and the most successful development club of the era, Manchester City, followed. Across European football it is part of every club’s business plan. Clubs have long sold their best homegrown talent but now the dynamic is different. With every big move in the transfer market, the flipside is that the cost might eventually be the best academy talent.

Clubs are obliged to invest as much as ever in academies. The latest European Court of Justice ruling suggests that UEFA’s notion of homegrown players to include any produced by clubs in the same national association will have to be changed. Instead the homegrown quota, currently six in Premier League squads, will have to be filled by players who graduated from that club’s academy.

At the same time the old route to signing players at the age of 16 from academies in European Union countries, like Cesc Fabregas and Gerard Pique, who would then count as homegrown, has been closed by Brexit. In its place is the ‘elite significant contribution player’  effectively a work permit wild card to sign young players around the world. Those aged under 21 do not have to be named as one of the 26 in a Premier League squad.

The status of the homegrown player reflects the status of the modern English game. There is huge pressure to win, and to balance the PSR compliancy. Succeed and the rewards will come. If the club falls short and you will be sold. Or, in the cases of some, sold either way.

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The Road to Riches Weekend of 1st-2nd June

Coming up this weekend

• Horse Racing, On the flat at Doncaster, Epsom including the Derby, Lingfield and Musselburgh and over the jumps at Hexham, Stratford and Worcester.
• Football, the Champions League final at Wembley, Borussia Dortmund v Real Madrid.
• Cricket, The start of the T20 World Cup in the Caribbean and USA.
• Golf, the Memorial Tournament on the USPGA and the Scandinavian Mixed Event on the DP World Tour.
• Tennis, the French Open continues.

Royal Ascot 18^th-22^nd June

The full package of bets and analysis on every race over the five days of Royal Ascot by Neil Channing will cost £199, and subscription is available now here 

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Free Tip

Cricket T20 World Cup starts Sunday

Just 16 months after the last T20 World Cup, won by England in Australia, comes the 2024 version the latest in the global merry-go-round of T20 ICC and franchise tournaments that have been ongoing since the end of the 2023 English domestic season.

This tournament is hosted by the West Indies and the USA from 1^st-29^th June. 16 matches are being hosted in New York, Texas and Florida. 8 take place on drop-in pitches in a new ground in New Jersey and there is no track record of international games in Florida, whilst in Texas 7 out of the 12 games in last year’s inaugural MLS T20 tournament had totals of less than 155. For Groups A and D in this expanded 20 team tournament there is an added element of variance in predicting ante-post and early single game outcomes, there simply isn’t much pitch and venue data to go on.

The group stage will consist of four groups of five teams, played as a single round-robin format in which the top two teams in each group will progress to the Super 8 stage, two groups of four leading to semi-finals. There’s an important wrinkle though. Teams are already seeded into Super 8 groups, so if India qualify there are into Group 1, and so are Australia. If an underdog qualifies ahead of India, say, they take their ranking in the Super 8.

We can see on the seedings these are the potential Super 8s:

India, Australia, New Zealand, Sri Lanka

Pakistan, England, West Indies, South Africa

Furthermore if India, say, make it to the semis we know they will play in Guyana. We know Australia would play in Trinidad. Got all that?!

In 8 World T20 tournaments no home team has ever won it and this is the first major tournament since the explosion of scoring in the format, notably in this year’s IPL.

There are reasons why these trends won’t be replicated here, such as no impact players that changed the risk dynamic for batsmen so much and, you would think, an absence of very short boundaries plus the Caribbean pitches are typically on the slow side where spin plays an important role.

That said other trends, such as the strength and conditioning of the batsmen and the bat technology will very much be in play as well as the tactical developments that now see big totals routinely chased down with huge hitting in the second half of innings.

Putting all that together where a T20I par total might once have been 150 and in the IPL is now 200+ perhaps something like 180 will be a par score on these pitches. Note that even in the IPL towards the back end of the tournament scoring rates slowed, pitches were lower and match-winning bowling spells became more the norm. Expect this in the knockout stages of this tournament.

The draw for the groups produced the following amongst the leading teams:

A India and Pakistan

B Australia and England (in tourist-friendly Barbados and Antigua)

C New Zealand and West Indies. Note that New Zealand play spin-heavy Afghanistan, Rashid Khan et al, in slow/low Guyana which is a tricky draw.

D South Africa and Sri Lanka/Bangladesh, the fight between the latter two potentially the closest qualification battle of the four groups.

Current tournament odds are:

India 11/4

Australia 7/2

England 9/2

South Africa 7/1

New Zealand 8/1

Pakistan 8/1

West Indies 10/1

Bar 33/1

It would be a huge surprise if the winner was outside the front seven in the market and a case could be made for any of them. After all any one of these sides is historically only 65% to beat the other in a single game in these tournaments, with variance as to toss, pitch and conditions in any game. It would also be a surprise if in a couple of the groups qualification didn’t come down to Net run rate.

My basic thoughts are that New Zealand and Pakistan are probably a bit humdrum in terms of scoring rates for a tournament like this in 2024, though New Zealand are the ultimate tournament team.

India, Australia and England are obvious favourites. India have only won one World T20 since 2007, clearly disappointing given their resources. Have a brilliant bowling unit but many of the batsman have performed quite poorly in the IPL. Not much value in the 11/4 here.

2020 winners Australia are experienced and settled with probably the best pace attack in the tournament but potentially a little light on spin on the tougher tracks with Agar and Zampa the only options, and Maxwell a potential weak link as a possible second spinner. Travis Head has just smacked the world’s best bowlers all over India in the IPL but the rest of the batting looks a little out of form.

England’s batting line-up looks tremendous but beyond Rashid their spin options of Ali/Livingstone/Jacks aren’t match-winners. The bowling attack as a whole probably falls behind some of the others.

South Africa never win these tournaments and on paper should always get close, a semi-final in the 50 over World Cup last Autumn was at least promising progress. This time round they have one of the most powerful top sixes in the competition, three front line spin options and pace bowlers to spare. South Africa’s bowlers (taking a composite of career figures) have the best combined strike rate in the tournament. Decent each way value at 7/1

The West Indies are two-time winners and again look an interesting option at 8/1 though the 10/1 has gone. The side is absolutely packed with T20 franchise specialists, with power batting all the way down, good spin options and raw pace. The loss of Jason Holder through injury is a blow, an important element of balance in the side at 7-8 and opening the bowling. Nevertheless a top seven containing Pooran, Russell, Powell, Hetmeyer and Shepherd is going to be a threat. In terms of career figures, the West Indies top six is a very close second to England for the best strike rate in the tournament.

I am going to split an each-way position on South Africa and the West Indies for value, hoping one upsets the front three in the market deep in the tournament.

5 points each way South Africa at 7/1 (1/2 1,2) with Bet365 and Coral/Ladbrokes

5 points each way West Indies at 8/1 (1/2 1,2) with Bet365, William Hill and BetVictor

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Chargers

It has been more than 15 months since Manchester City were charged with 115 financial breaches taking place over a decade, and an independent commission is expected to hear the case in the next few months. Indeed in recent weeks it has been suggested/leaked that a date for the hearing is now set, the potential news coincident with Manchester City’s fourth successive Premier League title and sixth under Guardiola.

The 115 charges are 54 failures to provide accurate financial information between 2009 and 2018, 14 failures to provide accurate details for player and manager payments, 5 failures to comply with UEFA's rules including Financial Fair Play, 7 breaches of the Premier League's PSR rules and 35 failures to co-operate with the Premier League's investigations.

 

In the 15 months since City were charged Everton and Nottingham Forest have between them faced three charges, three independent commission hearings, one appeal board hearing, and been docked a combined total of 12 points. New cases against other clubs, Leicester City for sure, Chelsea possibly, are on their way too.

It only took the conclusion of the first of those hearings for Everton manager Sean Dyche to invoke the elephant in the room when he said: “Just like everyone else, we are all wondering what makes one rule for one and one rule for the other. I don’t know the ins and outs for every reason, but I think we are all asking that.”

It is now three years since Lord Justice Males said during a Court of Appeal hearing into a legal dispute linked to the case: “This is an investigation which commenced in December 2018. It is surprising, and a matter of legitimate public concern, that so little progress has been made after two and a half years during which, it may be noted, the club has twice been crowned as Premier League champions.”

It could still be much longer until what is undoubtedly a significantly more complex case is finally resolved with the prospect of an appeal from a club who have steadfastly denied any wrongdoing and who overturned a two-year Champions League ban imposed for similar alleged offences. The latest judgment against Everton raised the likelihood of multiple hearings being required to consider different aspects of the case.

The Everton and Forest outcomes produced four written verdicts into profit and sustainability (PSR) rule breaches. The commission which heard the Forest case specifically highlighted the unlimited sanctions available to it, “ranging from a warning through to expulsion from the Premier League”.

It added: “Where a PSR breach is ‘minor’, then it will be for other commissions to determine if any points deduction is necessary, appropriate or proportionate.But if the breach is properly described as ‘major’ then it may be the case that even a very severe sanction such as expulsion is more appropriate.”

If one breach is deemed worthy of a points deduction, what price 115? We might be much closer to finding out.

There is an almost unquantifiable factor though, an issue of potential government involvement. Political and trade relationships with Qatar are in play as well as the PSR rules, highlighting for the Premier League the risk of sovereign owners of its clubs as well as risks from potentially unfit owners it recognises in a separate test.

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Betting Emporium results

The detailed results page has been updated on 1^st January 2024. They can be found by clicking RESULTS

If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £69,601 All bets have an ROI +2.97%

A £4000 bank betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £73,601, a 1740% increase.