Weekly Articles "Road to Riches" by Rich 'Tighty' Prew
The Road to Riches: Weekend 31st January-1st February
Coming Up this weekend
- Superbowl XLIX in Arizona between the Seattle Seahawks and the New England Patriots on Sunday night
- Football, with Chelsea against Manchester City one of the biggest games of the season in the Premier League
- Racing, national hunt meetings at Sandown, Wetherby and Ffos Las
- Tennis, the final weekend of the Australian Open in Melbourne
- Golf, on European Tour the Omega Dubai Desert Classic and on the USPGA Tour the Waste Management Phoenix Open, Scottsdale, Arizona.
- Darts this weekend sees the PDC Unibet Masters at the ArenaMK and features the top 16 players from the PDC Order of Merit following the World Darts Championship,
- Cricket, preparations for the World Cup continue with the ODI Triangular series between Australia, India and England and ODI internationals between New Zealand and Pakistan
NFL Superbowl (Sunday February 1st )
Neil has published a FREE preview on the Superbowl: you can read it HERE
As well as analysis on the Superbowl itself Neil will also be sharing all his prop bets, and some have already been posted. His record on this type of bet is very good over the years. Last year for Denver v Seattle in Superbowl XLVII we posted 8 winners from 11 bets (73%) with an ROI of 51%
If you subscribed to the NFL playoffs, you do not have to subscribe again and you will automatically have access.
| Superbowl XLIX (1st Feb) - Write Ups & analysis including all Neil's prop bets |
Australian Open Tennis - January 19th to February 1st by Nigel Seeley
Analysis of the final stages of the first grand slam of the season
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Australian Open Tennis Championship (full package)
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Free Tip of the Week
A look ahead to this year's Six Nations which begins next week. The first match of the 2015 Championship is a Friday night fixture between Wales and England at the Millennium Stadium in Cardiff. The following day, Ireland travel to Rome to begin the defence of their Six Nations title against Italy at Stadio Olimpico. Also on the Saturday, France and Scotland get their Six Nations campaigns underway at Stade de France in Paris.
The outright market for the Six Nations currently looks as follows:
Ireland 7/4
England 7/4
Wales 7/2
France 7/1
33/1 Bar
The outright market closely reflects the IRB world rankings, in which Ireland are 3rd and England 4th
Team Previews
Ireland
Defending champions Ireland shortened after an unbeaten Autumn series in which they beat Australia and South Africa. The 14 point win over South Africa was the best by a Northern Hemisphere side for several years. They have several key advantages for this Six Nations. Firstly the schedule, which gives them co-favourites England and France at home. Secondly they have the best player in the Championship at a key position, fly half Jonny Sexton (Ireland are fortunate to have Italy first up, a game Sexton is likely to miss with injury) and thirdly they have a consistent gameplan that they execute ruthlessly
the key game will be their fourth, away in Cardiff
Verdict: Clear favourites, but all the above is fairly priced in
England
Various statistical studies have demonstrated that home advantage is significant in the Six Nations. This is in part because France are such poor travellers but it applies across the six teams. The fact that this year England will have to travel away to face Ireland and Wales does not bode well for them and nor does the current spate of injuries to a number of players. England have more depth than any other team in the competition but it is a big ask to win the championship with this schedule and these injuries even before we consider problems with achieving a consistent style. They are always going to be competitive with their forward strength, but will need a more expansive game to win the title
Verdict: 2-1 or below represents no value at all.
Wales
While England, partly because of injuries, go into the Six Nations without a settled side, Wales have an established line-up: 12 of the regular starters in the 2012 grand slam remain in the most experienced squad in the compeitition. Wales has been plagued by inconsistency since 2012, the form of key players who went to play in France dipped and most recent form from the Autumn is mixed also. A win against South Africa wascounter-balanced by losses against Australia and New Zealand shipping 74 points.
The key here is establishing parity up front, if they do then the back five will do a lot of damage to opponents. It helps also that they have Ireland and England at home
Verdict: Likely to go very close to the title again with 2015 (and the Autumn World Cup) the last hurrah of Warren Gatland's former grand slam winning side
France
More talented than their 7/1 odds suggest, but this is the tougher of their bi-annual schedules, travelling to both Dublin and Twickenham in their three away games. Perennially hamstrung by inconsistent selections, there is more of the same this year with several players selected as first choice in the Autumn Internationals not making the 31 man squad for the Six Nations. There is huge flair in the team out wide and a superb back row, both often let down by problems at the main decision making positions at half-back. If you knew they would perform consistently you would be all over them at 7-1
Verdict: A watching brief for me, sub-market plays should be interesting (points, try-scorers etc)
Scotland
Fast improving under coach Vern Cotter, could finish as high as third. A competitive set of forwards, good half backs, reliable kicking game and some flair in midfield for the first time in several seasons are grounds for optimism.
Verdict: Difficult to see them winning the competition, but expect improvement and at least two wins
Italy
Bottom last year, but a lot closer to the pack than in previous years (a narrow defeat in Cardiff and Scotland needed a last minute drop goal to beat them) and slowing closing the gap with the rest. More signs of improvement in the Autumn Internationals.
Verdict: They win a game this year, but still get the wooden spoon
Recommendations: I don't think a side wins a Grand Slam this year (one of the better 8/11 shots you will see for those who don't mind a short one) and expect the title to come down to the last weekend and be settled on points difference. Opposing England and Ireland on value grounds, and would consider Ireland the stronger of the two teams in this schedule. I consider Wales as very close to the two favourites and have both of them at home.
20 points Wales to win the Six Nations. Prices above 3/1 (I wouldn't take less) have been going this week, probably related to the raft of injury news around England. 100/30 is around in a few "secondary" places but I'll use 16/5 Sportingbet here
I'll have some game by game coverage of Six Nations games through the next couple of months, particularly with an eye on Scotland causing a surprise or two
Cheltenham Festival Tuesday 10th - Friday 13th March 2015
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"When the final score doesn't matter"
Before the mid-1980s, NFL bets in Vegas sporting books had been limited to only three options: (1) Moneyline bets; (2) Point spread bets and (3) Over/Under totals bets. With their clients a small band of hardcore sports bettors, the independent sportsbooks had little incentive to expand betting offerings. Then a new generation of former gamblers managing the large hotel sportsbooks started looking beyond the hardcore bettors to a new customer; casual bettors on Vegas holidays. The hotels courted these inexperienced, recreational bettors by trying to stand out from the crowd. New, more inventive bets were one way to attract attention.
At the same time, Caesar’s Palace started hosting large Super Bowl parties, inviting ex-players and ex-coaches to mingle with the public and draw crowds. For the first time, Las Vegas saw an influx of bettors for the Super Bowl. While the Super Bowl and March Madness basketball continued to grow as the biggest gambling events of the year, prop bets, for a time, still remained an afterthought.
Then came Superbowl XX and a man called William “Refrigerator” Perry, an enormous defensive tackle who the Chicago Bears used on their goal-line offense through the season. Many of us NFL fans in the UK remember him well, as this was the era when the NFL first appeared on our TV screens
With 3:30 remaining in the third quarter, the Chicago Bears led the New England Patriots 37-3. The game as a contest was done and dusted, with one of the most dominating teams of any NFL era about to be crowned Superbowl champions. The Bears’ offense lined up on New England’s 1-yard line. At the snap the Fridge took a hand-off from quarterback Jim McMahon and lumbered into action. He split the defenders and fell into the endzone, the final touchdown of the game.
In the buildup to the game, Las Vegas sportsbooks looking to capitalise on the country’s fascination with the massive rookie had posted odds on whether Perry would score a touchdown. As loud and brash coach Mike Ditka publicly down-played Perry’s role, the odds soared to as high as 75/1. Then the national media picked up the story. As the publicity flowed in to Las Vegas, so did money. By kick-off the odds dropped to 2/1.
The Perry touchdown won hundreds of thousands of dollars for bettors all along the Strip. For the casinos however, that loss would be spare change compared to the millions and millions of dollars they would ultimately make because of that one single play.
After the success of the Perry bet in 1986, Super Bowl prop bets rapidly grew in popularity. By the early 1990s most books offered somewhere between 30 and 50 prop bets for each Super Bowl. Then circumstances well outside of Las Vegas’ control threatened to affect their business on the biggest sports betting day of the year. Beginning in 1990, for six of the next eight years the Super Bowls were one-sided blowouts as NFC powers annually dominated over-matched AFC opponents by lop-sided scores of 55-10, 52-17, 49-26 and 35-21. Even worse, many of these games were predictable blow-outs, and predictable blow-outs generate little betting interest. In response, the casinos needed to provide bettors other incentives to gamble. Prop bets unrelated to the outcome but not resolved until the clock runs out were the obvious answer.
Move forward nearly 25 years and this weekend you will be able to bet on hundreds of Superbowl Props with UK bookmakers. The scope of bets offered around the globe is so wide that you can, if you are so inclined, bet on any of the following this weekend
National anthem
The over/under time on Idina Menzel (of Frozen "Let it go" fame) completing the national anthem is 2 minutes, 2 seconds.
Belichick’s hoodie
You can bet on what colour hoodie Patriots coach Bill Belichick will wear: Grey is odds-on favourite.
Gatorade colour
The colour of the Gatorade that will be dumped on the winning coach can be bet. Orange is a 6/4 favourite.
“Deflated” mentions
How many times will “deflated” footballs get mentioned? The over/under has been set at three times, which seems extremely low.
Gisele sightings
How many times will Tom Brady's model wife Gisele Bundchen be shown on camera? The over/under is 1.5 times
William "The Refrigerator" Perry has a lot to answer for.
What else is on Betting Emporium?
English Football - Leagues and Cups Stuart analyses the week's games in F A Cup fourth round, free to access here
Premier League Statistical Analysis – You can read this here still FREE to all registered users
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
£10 per point on every recommended bet since launch in Feb 2013 would be winning £13,824 (as at 27-1-15)
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The Road to Riches: Weekend 24th-25th January
- Football, F A Cup 4th round weekend (see article below)
- Racing, national hunt meetings at Cheltenham, Doncaster and Uttoxeter
- Tennis, the Australian Open in Melbourne continues with last sixteen matches this weekend
- Golf, on the European Tour the Commercial Bank Qatar Masters in Qatar and on the USPGA Tour the Humana Challenge in California
- Cricket, preparations for the World Cup continue with the ODI Triangular series between Australia, India and England and ODI internationals between New Zealand and India (see tip below)
- Rugby Union, the last pool games of the European Champions Cup will decide the quarter final line up for after the Six Nations in February and March
NFL Superbowl (February 1st 2015)
Neil has just published a FREE preview on the Superbowl: you can read it HERE
As well as analysis on the Superbowl itself next weekend Neil will also be sharing all his prop bets. His record on this type of bet is very good over the years. Last year for Denver v Seattle in Superbowl XLVII we posted 8 winners from 11 bets (73%) with an ROI of 51%
If you subscribed to the NFL playoffs, you do not have to subscribe again and you will automatically have access.
| Superbowl XLIX (1st Feb) - Write Ups & analysis including all Neil's prop bets |
Australian Open Tennis - January 19th to February 1st by Nigel Seeley
Match by match analysis and write ups are ongoing after a successful first week of tips:
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Free Tip of the Week
Today with the cricket World Cup only a few weeks away a look at the game in the current warm-up series between two lively World cup outsiders, hosts New Zealand and Sri Lanka.
The sixth game in the seven match series takes place on Saturday evening our time (10pm start) in Dunedin. New Zealand lead the series 3-1 after scoring 360-5 after falling to 93-5 in the last game.
New Zealand are in the World Cup reckoning because they are a much improved team with an imaginative captain, lots of batting depth and one of the best seam attacks in world cricket. Sri Lanka have less strength in depth but on their day can beat anyone and it is they that are the focus today, particularly their batsmen.
The core of the Sri Lankan batting has been the same three players for the past decade, Tillekaratne Dilshan and two all-time greats who retire from the one day game after the World Cup, Kumar Sangakarra and Mahela Jayawardene. They fill three of the first four spots in the batting line up and are well ahead of the rest of the team in experience and ability
So far in the four Sri Lankan innings in this series they have scored as follows:
Dilshan 295 runs, 332 balls faced, strike rate 88
Jayawardene 255 runs, 247 balls faced, strike rate 103
Sangakarra 127 runs, 156 balls faced, strike rate 81
Strike rate shows the runs scored per hundred balls faced. Below these three batsman the next highest Sri Lanka scorer has 89 runs, as if we needed it a sign of how dependent the team’s totals are on the “big three”
Dilshan has two centuries in the series and is coming off a hundred in the massive chase on the same ground on Thursday. Formerly renowned as a ferocious hitter and little else, he has changed style since the change of playing conditions in 2012, the onus now on saving wickets at the top of the order, to have wickets in hand for the later power-play and help achieve scores of 300+. This helps explain why his strike rate is lower than Jayawardene’s, typically batting later in an innings.
As we will see in the forthcoming World Cup, those batsmen in and well set in the mid to late part of the innings are going to have a big advantage in strike rates with five fielders mandated to be within the 30-yard circle at all times in an innings with only three fielders permitted outside the circle for the five Power-play overs to be taken by the batting team before the 40th over.
Looking at the “Top Sri-Lankan batsman” sub market for the game on Saturday night sees the following:
Sangakarra 11/4
Dilshan 100/30
Jayawardene 7/2
Bar 11/2
On current form, the favourite looks wrong and priced off his form in 2013-14 and it helps that we can discount so many of the XI outside the three named above from our calculations, in the majority of games. For example Mathews is a late order hitter and Thirimanne has technical flaws. They might come off, but the percentage play when betting on batsmen sub-markets in this Sri Lanka team will always be one of the three stars.
Jayawardene is the most consistent player (three scores of 50 plus in four innings this series, Dilshan is more of a “boom-bust” betting proposition), with the highest strike rate and yet the outsider of the three main contenders.
Ladbrokes will lay us 4/1 too, and i think eh should be joint favourite.
15 points Mahela Jayawardene Top Sri Lanka batsman (6th ODI v New Zealand, Dunedin 24th January) 4/1 Ladbrokes, 7/2 generally available
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Matchbook
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"The Cup is a great leveller"
So we are used to being told. In fact, it is arguable that in recent years the betting markets have failed to recognise how comprehensively the FA Cup is now dominated by the bigger clubs, with fewer upsets than ever.
It used to be said that the best team won the Premiership and the luckiest team won the FA Cup. Now the best team, or one of the very best teams, usually win the FA Cup as well.
During the twenty competitions from 1994 to 2014, the FA Cup was won five times each by Arsenal and Chelsea, four times by Manchester United, twice by Liverpool and once by Manchester City and Everton. In fact in the last twenty years there are only two "outlier" winners outside the "big five" at the time, Portsmouth in 2008 and Wigan Athletic in 2013. This is latterly in an era where the financial importance of every Premier League position and qualification for Europe leads too much rotated sides for FA Cup games and you would think more opportunities for upsets. However there is little evidence of it
Inferior teams will sometimes beat superior opponents but in the FA Cup it doesn't happen any more often than it should. We might think back and remember Wycombe winning a quarter final at Leicester. We forget all the other bottom-division teams who did not beat Premiership opponents. In fact, during the last twelve seasons, no other team from the lowliest section of the Football League have won away to Premiership opponents. Psychologically, in our search for the upset, we fail to notice the unspectacular results that are far more routine.
I looked at FA Cup results recorded during the last twelve seasons by Premier League teams against Championship opponents and League One teams against League Two opponents. Premiership teams scored an average of 0.9 goals per game more than Championship opponents and League One teams scored an average of 0.6 goals per game more than League Two opponents.
We can gauge the relative strength of these divisions from the results of clubs promoted and relegated between them. In the same twelve seasons, the average goal difference per game of clubs relegated from the Premiership to the Championship improved by 1.0, while the average goal difference per game of clubs promoted from the Championship to the Premiership deteriorated by 1.0.
The average goal difference per game of clubs relegated from League One to League Two improved by 0.7, while the average goal difference per game of teams promoted from League Two to League One deteriorated by 0.7.
The gap between the Premier League and Championship in one-off FA Cup ties was very similar, though not identical, to what it was in ordinary league fixtures. Likewise, the gap between League One and League Two.
So why might there be fewer upsets now than in yesteryear, despite squad rotation and in some cases questionable commitment to the F A Cup from leading teams?
After all this year, all us romantics had to go on in the third round was a QPR team losing in the third round to Sheffield United and the next biggest shock was probably Rochdale's win over Forest. Both barely registered on the upsets scale compared to an FA Cup round of 25 years ago
a) Squad depth is greater for the top teams than it ever was. The financial resources gained from every growing TV deals have led dramatic wage inflation and to greater strength in depth for top flight teams compared to the rest.
b) Playing conditions are more "big club" friendly. Newer stadiums across the league, undersoil heating..no more sloping pitches, mud baths and reasons for unmotivated Premier league players to mail it in. When AFC Wimbledon hosted Liverpool at the Kingsmeadow Stadium, the pitch was as close to perfect as it could've been - the only thing that gave the game the David vs Goliath feeling was the presence of Adebayo Akinfenwa, whose unorthodox physique and playing style caused Liverpool trouble throughout
There is no evidence for the almost universally accepted belief that the FA Cup is a great leveller, indeed these days it is less true than ever. There have been a few upsets. In the past four competitions we've seen Stevenage 3-1 Newcastle (2011), Leeds 2-1 Tottenham (2013) and Oldham 3-2 Liverpool (2013). Proper surprises, usually no more than one or two per year, which is roughly par, just don't go betting on too many of them happening.
What else is on Betting Emporium?
English Football - Leagues and Cups Stuart analyses the week's games in F A Cup fourth round, free to access here
Premier League Statistical Analysis – You can read this here still FREE to all registered users
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
£10 per point on every recommended bet since launch in Feb 2013 would be winning £12,288 (as at 8-1-15)
All bets have an ROI +5% and Horse Racing has an ROI +20.89%
There is also a Frequently Asked Questions Section
The Road to Riches: Weekend 17th-18th January
- NFL Play-Offs: The NFC and AFC Conference games. The play-offs continue this weekend with two games on Sunday. Green Bay, our ante-post Superbowl pick, at Seattle and Indianapolis at New England. For all Neil's play-off analysis and selections through to the Superbowl sign up here
- Football Premier League and a full Football league programme with Manchester City against Arsenal a highlight on Sunday afternoon
- Racing, national hunt meetings at Ascot, Haydock and Taunton
- Snooker The 2015 Masters concludes at the Alexandra Palace with the O'Sullivan/Robertson semi-final on Saturday at 1pm set to be a cracker.
- Tennis, the 2015 season continues with tournaments in Sydney and Auckland building up to the first grand slam of the season, the Australian Open in Melbourne next week
- Golf, the new season continues with the USPGA Tour at the Sony Open in Hawaii, and the European Tour's Abu Dhabi HSBC Golf Championship.
- Cricket, warm ups for the World Cup continue with Australia playing India in the Tri-series and South Africa hosting the West Indies in One day Internationals
NFL Playoffs and Superbowl (3rd January - February 1st 2015) - full package £40 - sign up here
Neil Channing will be providing write ups and analysis on all the games:
WILD CARD ROUND - Saturday 3rd and Sunday 4th January 2014
DIVISIONAL ROUND - Saturday 10th and Sunday 11th January 2014
CONFERENCE CHAMPIONSHIPS - Sunday 18th January 2014
SUPERBOWL XLIX - Sunday 1st February 2014
| Playoffs and Superbowl XLIX - Write Ups and analysis | £40 Sign Up Here |
Australian Open Tennis - January 19th to February 1st by Nigel Seeley
A Preview of the first Grand Slam event of the year will be published on Saturday and match by match analysis and write ups follow.|
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Free Tip of the Week
For an NFL prop bettor, we are about to reach the best weekend of the year with the Superbowl where odds-setters will offer us a wealth of opportunities. With the two NFL conference games this weekend there is also a wider than normal range to choose from.
Of the two games, New England is a tough prop team to bet, as Bill Belichick is very unpredictable in his game planning versus other coaches. Last week for example saw trick plays and alingnment wrinkles. My focus instead is on the Green Bay at Seattle game, in part because i have ante-post positions on Green Bay recommended which were a motivation to look at the game very closely.
At first glance, Green Bay face a huge task in Seattle. The Seahawks have one of the great defenses and are the first team to lead NFL in fewest points per game and yards per game allowed in consecutive seasons since the legendary 1985-86 Chicago Bears. Seattle have a renowned home advantage and the Packers, with 318 points at home and 168 on the road during the regular season created a record, as no team in NFL history has a bigger home/road points split. On top of that Aaron Rodgers has a calf tear, beat Dallas on one leg and this weekend is likely to be similarly restricted against a far better defense.
I'll leave Neil to talk about points spreads, points totals etc in his NFL Play off package (sign up here) and instead take all of the above and look at what strategy Green Bay have to use to give themselves the best chance of winning. As I found last week, with Denver rather mystifyingly deciding to rely on big plays from an injured Peyton Manning to win rather than running the ball consistently, this might not be the approach adopted but to my mind its their best chance and if correct helps us identify where some prop value may be.
Teams that have been unable to run the football against Seattle fall behind and typically get stuck in passing situations where the defense knows a pass is coming on virtually every play. That plays directly into Seattle’s hands as it allows their pass rush to ignore run responsibilities and just attack the quarterback. With the strength of Seattle’s secondary, the Seahawks have the players to cover receivers in the back end as well.
Seattle kept the Packers in check in their 36-16 win over Green Bay in Week 1. Eddie Lacy was held to 37 yards on 12 carries before leaving with a concussion in the fourth quarter, and the Packers had just 80 yards on the ground. However, the Packers rushing attack is much-improved since then. Over their final eight games (seven regular season games and last week’s playoff game against Dallas), the Packers averaged 137.25 rushing yards per game. That rate would have put Green Bay fourth in the league in rushing if extrapolated over a full season.
“From the first eight games to the second eight games, their rushing stats have flip flopped and that’s a big change in their approach,” Seattle head coach Pete Carroll said.
After watching the Packers rely on Lacy extensively in their win last weekend, I believe Lacy should be the focal point of the offensive game plan in this matchup. Lacy should get more attempts than the first game in the rematch as part of a ball-control game plan designed to alleviate some of the pressure on Rodgers. If Lacy finishes with 25 or more attempts (admittedly this is a very small sample, Green Bay is 3-0 when Lacy receives 20-plus carries in a game this season), the Packers should have a shot.
On the other side, "Beastmode" Marshawn Lynch is priced up as a short first touchdown favourite in every game he plays. Not only are Seattle favourites every week, especially at home, but they are a conservative offense without too much big play potential on the outside and Lynch himself is the focus of the offense. He doesn't represent great value though, 7/2 in places and 5/1 generally
Contrast that with Lacy who we can back at 9/1 first touchdown scorer and should get the carries to make this a really interesting price for all the reasons above. Green Bay may get the ball first (Carolina did against Seattle in the divisional round) and Lacy should be the feature on the first drive. In any case with the combination of the Seattle defense and a fairly workmanlike offense for the home team, we could well get a couple of opportunities to drive for the first touchdown.
10 points Eddie Lacy First touchdown scorer Green Bay @ Seattle 9/1 BetVictor or William Hill
Bookmaker reviews and advice
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Skrill and Neteller Accounts: Bonus Cashback
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Please use sign up code: bebonus
Access great cashback incentives from transfers to bookmaking, gaming and online poker sites, which are credited to you just for opening your accounts through us. If you already have an account, check with us to see if you might still be eligible here.
SKRILL:
- Monthly cashback bonus 0.4% - 0.5% of transfers (plus any Skrill Loyalty Club Bonus, +0.2% typically, and Promotions).
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NETELLER:
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Matchbook
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"They are on a good run, so they are a good thing today" "They are on a bad run, and its getting worse"
Back the team has not lost any of their last eight games? but oppose the team who had not won any of their last eight games?
Actually, a perfectly ordinary mid-table team are likely to run up both of these sequences at least once in a season.
A mid-table team will usually win 36 per cent of their games, draw 28 per cent and lose 36 per cent. In other words, they will avoid defeat in 64 per cent of the games they play. I got out some old Rothmans annuals and flicked through the pages of teams who had finished halfway down their divisions. What I found was that each team I checked did indeed run up at least one sequence of eight or so games without a defeat and another of eight or so games without a victory.
You can be sure that a lot of punters toward the end of each of these good runs were beginning to think that the team had got better, and toward the end of each of these bad runs they were beginning to think that the team had got worse.
In fact, often neither conclusion is true.
Since the start of the Premier League in 1992, the team who won the league failed to win 37 per cent of the games they play. Even Arsenal, when they went unbeaten throughout season 2003-04, failed to win 32 per cent of the games they played. This season (and we might argue that the resources of the top few teams compared to the rest should lead to greater distribution of results top four relative to the rest over the years) Chelsea have failed to win 28% and Manchester City 33% of their 21 games.
In other words, the best teams in England fail to win approximately one out of every three games they play.
As a sequence of good results gets longer, we should progressively upgrade our assessment of the team and as a sequence of bad results gets longer, we should progressively downgrade our assessment of the team but not as dramatically as most people do.
Going back to 1992, fewer than half of teams in the Premier League who won six games in a row won the next game. Similarly, of all the teams who lost six games in a row, fewer than half lost the next game.
All this points to the contrarian approach, seeking value based on price or an angle rather than the momentum of recent results. It is the times that the teams on a strong run lose that the bookmakers love, they are in the vast majority of the weekend's accumulators for starters.
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The Road to Riches: Weekend 10th-11th January
Coming Up this weekend
- NFL Play-Offs: Divisional Round week. The play-offs continue this weekend with four games over Saturday and Sunday in the Divisional Round. For all Neil's play-off analysis and selections through to the Superbowl sign up here
- Football with the return of the Premier League and a full Football league programme. At the top of a closer Premier League than it was, Chelsea host Newcastle and Manchester City are at Everton
- Racing, national hunt meetings at Kempton (including the Lanzarote Hurdle), Wetherby and Warwick (including the Classic Chase)
- Snooker The 2015 Masters begins at the Alexandra Palace on Sunday
- Tennis, the 2015 season has begun with ATP Brisbane which concludes this weekend, the beginning of the Australasian leg of the tour that culminates in the first Grand Slam of the year in Melbourne.
- Golf, the season begins with the European Tour in Johannesburg at The South African Open Championship and the USPGA Tour at Hyundai Tournament of Champions in Hawaii.
- Cricket, a T20 series begins in Johannesburg (South Africa v West Indies) a one day intenrantional series begins in Christchurch (New Zealand v Sri Lanka) and England begin their World Cup Warm up tour in Canberra
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Neil Channing will be providing write ups and analysis on all the games:
WILD CARD ROUND - Saturday 3rd and Sunday 4th January 2014
DIVISIONAL ROUND - Saturday 10th and Sunday 11th January 2014
CONFERENCE CHAMPIONSHIPS - Sunday 18th January 2014
SUPERBOWL XLIX - Sunday 1st February 2014
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Free Tip of the Week
This week, to complement Neil's work on the play offs with the NFL Divisional Round this weekend, a look at the final game this weekend (Sunday 9.40pm GMT) when the Indianapolis Colts visit the Denver Broncos.
The Broncos hosted the Colts in the season opener, winning 31-24, having led 24-7. Denver are seven point favourites for Sunday's game. Once again, i have tried to look at the teams and their strengths and likely strategies with a view to looking at sub-market value.
The Broncos have the AFC’s highest-scoring offense, averaging 30.1 points per game. They changed their offensive strategy midway through the season though, moving away from the passing game and becoming much more conservative in play-calling, running the ball a lot more with great success. There may be a couple of reasons for this, both related to the great Peyton Manning who he made more mistakes than usual in 2014, throwing 15 interceptions and was and is suffering with injury niggles too. After passing for 34 touchdowns and 323.5 yards per game in Denver's first 11 games, Manning had only five touchdown passes and 233.8 passing yards per game in the Broncos' last five games of the season.
The Colts won the AFC South on the strength of the conference’s third highest scoring offense, but their defense was too bad to overcome, at times. In all five of Indianapolis’ losses, they surrendered at least 30 points. The Colts gave up at least 42 points in their last three defeats.
The key for Denver here will be to avoid a shoot-out which gives Andrew Luck's offense a chance to be competitive. The way to do that will be to play good defense and run the ball controlling time of possession. Denver’s defense was among the best in the regular season. They ranked ninth against the pass and second against the run, allowing the fewest total yards of any AFC defense. Von Miller and DeMarcus Ware combined to record 24 sacks in 2015. Indianapolis do not have an effective run game and we will see Chris Harris the top cornerback bracketed with T Y Hilton when Indianapolis have the ball.
So, time to look at a familiar name if you read this column. C J Anderson finished with at least 80 yards rushing in each of his last three games and racked up two three-touchdown games down the stretch. No running back in the NFL had more rushing yards (648) or Touchdowns (8) in the final six weeks of the regular season than Anderson.
The last time we backed him, he had five runs from the one yard line in a touchdown-less game at that point, and we had a frustrating "value loser". In the final regular season game he shared carries with Ronnie Hillman, who was returning from injury in what was a "dead rubber" for the Broncos. Anderson had 13 carries, down from 25-30 in his great run of form. I would expect them to revert to Anderson having over 20 carries in this game.
Looking at the opportunity this time, the Colts secondary has been decent, 12th in the league with two effective cornerbacks in Vontae Davis and Greg Toler, but the run defense is comparatively poor. Indianapolis concede 113.4 yards per game on the ground. In the wild card round, even though Cincinnati fell behind early and all but abandoned the run, the Bengals still carried for over 5.2 yards per rush against the Colts. With so much attention paid to Manning and his receivers, Anderson should have a nice game.
So, hopefully, we have a nice confluence of factors here. The match-up favours the Denver running game, and the team's recent strategy has emphasised it compared to other likely touchdown options. With time of possession against an Andrew Luck side crucial, Anderson is going to get plenty of opportunities to score touchdowns.
Although we cannot say it with certainty, its likely that Denver get the ball first too. If they win the toss they will receive and if Indianapolis win the toss, it would be common for the away side to defer and get the ball at the start of the second half. The weather forecast - very cold, blizzards - might also work in favour if the running game compared to receiving touchdowns too
10 points C J Anderson First touchdown scorer Denver Broncos v Indianapolis Colts 8-1 William Hill , 7/1 generally
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"That's a huge momentum changer".
"They have the momentum, they've won eight in a row"
How many times do we hear phrases like that during or before a sporting event? Plenty!
Well, contrary to media narratives and what we hear each week from pundits and commentators, there is a strong contrary view that sports momentum is a myth. Many of the arguments were expounded in a Freakonomics piece in 2011 which quoted an academic paper from several years ago, called "The Hot hand in Basketball: On the misperception of Random seqeunces" (available in all good bookshops) that argued that a “hot streak” is really just a random sequence that we misperceive to be more meaningful than it is.
Bettors and fans alike are so keen to attribute a pattern to any sequence in order for it to make sense to them. In the example investigated in the paper above in the NBA, a hot hand in basketball was thought to be someone who was more likely to hit their next shot simply because they landed their last one. But the hot hand phenomenon was dispelled as untrue.
Thomas Gilovich, a professor of Psychology at Cornell discovered the fallacy. He reviewed the stats of the Philadelphia 76ers for one season. Gilovich found that not only were players not more likely to score just because they previously scored, but they actually had better odds of scoring after missing a shot. That means momentum had absolutely nothing to do with how many points a player scored.
It’s easy to mistake that for a pattern, suggesting some kind of meaning or momentum, but it’s really just a pure illustration of randomness itself.
When betting, we may look to recent momentum to help form a strategy. It’s likely to be a strategy largely built on a limited sample size, though. The outcome could deviate (sometimes for the better, sometimes for the worse) especially in small sample sizes, but over a larger period, you’ll generally see performance regress towards the mean.
So if we consider that momentum might be a myth, why all the streaks? What about those patterns? It’s just variance.
Variance is a measure of how far a set of numbers is spread out. With low variance, the set of numbers is close, but with high variance, they are far apart. High variance means that over a small period, you could win some money when you bet based on team or player momentum, but the risk is greater. If you are looking to make money and grow your bankroll in the long run, a better strategy is to stick to bets with low variance and positive expected value
Anomalies are going to happen. Teams are going to win a lot of games in a row (there are 19 and 20 game streaks ongoing in the NBA this season. In the NFL Dallas won 8 away games in a row in this season) and within games there are going to be fantastic comebacks but in a population of thousands of results over long periods of time these are anomalies.
However the statistical world cannot escape “regression to the mean.” Those streaks have very little bearing on what happens next as a predictor of betting value.
sports momentum is a myth. Just because a team is on a winning streak doesn’t mean they will definitely win their next game. Just because the Irish upset favorites on their path to the top didn’t mean they were going beat the Tide.
Of course Notre Dame’s odds increased with every win of the season, but ultimately, after evaluating different player and team data, it’d be clear that Alabama had a significant advantage to win. Beware of narratives and motives behind them. It’s more positive for the media to sell a game by saying Notre Dame has “grit” and “moxie” than saying “Alabama will clean house.” It all boils down to stats and analysis when it comes to betting on sports.
Making Sense of Things
Bettors and fans alike are so keen to attribute a pattern to any sequence in order for it to make sense to them. For example, in the NBA, a hot hand in basketball was thought to be someone who was more likely to hit their next shot simply because they landed their last one. But the hot hand phenomenon was dispelled as untrue.
It was Thomas Gilovich, a professor of Psychology at Cornell, who discovered the fallacy. He reviewed the stats of the Philadelphia 76ers for one season. Gilovich found that not only were players not more likely to score just because they previously scored, but they actually had better odds of scoring after missing a shot. That means momentum had absolutely nothing to do with how many points a player scored.
Consider the Size
When wagering on sports, bettors may look to recent momentum to help form a sports betting strategy. It’s likely to be a strategy largely built on a limited sample size, though. (A streak is a streak for a reason after all.) The outcome could deviate (sometimes for the better, sometimes for the worse) especially in small sample sizes, but over a larger period, you’ll generally see performance regress towards the Vegas line.
Let’s say the Atlanta Braves won their first six games of the 2013 season. They might be on a hot streak but in a 162 game season, six in a row isn’t much. Before you go to bet on them straight up in the next game, consider this. In 2012, they had a 94-68 win-loss record, meaning they won about 58% of the time. That means they still have the same chances to win that seventh game – it’s not a guaranteed win based on momentum.
Embrace the Variance
Now that we see the momentum’s a myth, what’s with all the streaks? What about those patterns? It’s just variance.
Variance is a measure of how far a set of numbers is spread out. With low variance, the set of numbers is close, but with high variance, they are far apart. For example, the Indianapolis Colts were projected to be below average in 2012. They had an expected win total for the year of 5.5. Surprisingly they were 11-5 on the season, but that’s only because 10 of those wins were by a touchdown or less. Sports bettors may have chosen to wager on them because they were riding high on momentum even though they were projected to lose in many of those games.
High variance means that over a small period, you could win some money when you bet based on a team’s or player’s momentum, but the risk is greater. If you are looking to make money and grow your bankroll in the long run, a better strategy is to stick to bets with low variance and positive expected value
- See more at: http://www.wageronsports.com/sports-betting-strategy/general-betting-strategy/the-myth-of-momentum-in-sports/#sthash.Vda0JBcj.dpufsports momentum is a myth. Just because a team is on a winning streak doesn’t mean they will definitely win their next game. Just because the Irish upset favorites on their path to the top didn’t mean they were going beat the Tide.
Of course Notre Dame’s odds increased with every win of the season, but ultimately, after evaluating different player and team data, it’d be clear that Alabama had a significant advantage to win. Beware of narratives and motives behind them. It’s more positive for the media to sell a game by saying Notre Dame has “grit” and “moxie” than saying “Alabama will clean house.” It all boils down to stats and analysis when it comes to betting on sports.
Making Sense of Things
Bettors and fans alike are so keen to attribute a pattern to any sequence in order for it to make sense to them. For example, in the NBA, a hot hand in basketball was thought to be someone who was more likely to hit their next shot simply because they landed their last one. But the hot hand phenomenon was dispelled as untrue.
It was Thomas Gilovich, a professor of Psychology at Cornell, who discovered the fallacy. He reviewed the stats of the Philadelphia 76ers for one season. Gilovich found that not only were players not more likely to score just because they previously scored, but they actually had better odds of scoring after missing a shot. That means momentum had absolutely nothing to do with how many points a player scored.
Consider the Size
When wagering on sports, bettors may look to recent momentum to help form a sports betting strategy. It’s likely to be a strategy largely built on a limited sample size, though. (A streak is a streak for a reason after all.) The outcome could deviate (sometimes for the better, sometimes for the worse) especially in small sample sizes, but over a larger period, you’ll generally see performance regress towards the Vegas line.
Let’s say the Atlanta Braves won their first six games of the 2013 season. They might be on a hot streak but in a 162 game season, six in a row isn’t much. Before you go to bet on them straight up in the next game, consider this. In 2012, they had a 94-68 win-loss record, meaning they won about 58% of the time. That means they still have the same chances to win that seventh game – it’s not a guaranteed win based on momentum.
Embrace the Variance
Now that we see the momentum’s a myth, what’s with all the streaks? What about those patterns? It’s just variance.
Variance is a measure of how far a set of numbers is spread out. With low variance, the set of numbers is close, but with high variance, they are far apart. For example, the Indianapolis Colts were projected to be below average in 2012. They had an expected win total for the year of 5.5. Surprisingly they were 11-5 on the season, but that’s only because 10 of those wins were by a touchdown or less. Sports bettors may have chosen to wager on them because they were riding high on momentum even though they were projected to lose in many of those games.
High variance means that over a small period, you could win some money when you bet based on a team’s or player’s momentum, but the risk is greater. If you are looking to make money and grow your bankroll in the long run, a better strategy is to stick to bets with low variance and positive expected value
- See more at: http://www.wageronsports.com/sports-betting-strategy/general-betting-strategy/the-myth-of-momentum-in-sports/#sthash.Vda0JBcj.dpufsports momentum is a myth. Just because a team is on a winning streak doesn’t mean they will definitely win their next game. Just because the Irish upset favorites on their path to the top didn’t mean they were going beat the Tide.
Of course Notre Dame’s odds increased with every win of the season, but ultimately, after evaluating different player and team data, it’d be clear that Alabama had a significant advantage to win. Beware of narratives and motives behind them. It’s more positive for the media to sell a game by saying Notre Dame has “grit” and “moxie” than saying “Alabama will clean house.” It all boils down to stats and analysis when it comes to betting on sports.
Making Sense of Things
Bettors and fans alike are so keen to attribute a pattern to any sequence in order for it to make sense to them. For example, in the NBA, a hot hand in basketball was thought to be someone who was more likely to hit their next shot simply because they landed their last one. But the hot hand phenomenon was dispelled as untrue.
It was Thomas Gilovich, a professor of Psychology at Cornell, who discovered the fallacy. He reviewed the stats of the Philadelphia 76ers for one season. Gilovich found that not only were players not more likely to score just because they previously scored, but they actually had better odds of scoring after missing a shot. That means momentum had absolutely nothing to do with how many points a player scored.
Consider the Size
When wagering on sports, bettors may look to recent momentum to help form a sports betting strategy. It’s likely to be a strategy largely built on a limited sample size, though. (A streak is a streak for a reason after all.) The outcome could deviate (sometimes for the better, sometimes for the worse) especially in small sample sizes, but over a larger period, you’ll generally see performance regress towards the Vegas line.
Let’s say the Atlanta Braves won their first six games of the 2013 season. They might be on a hot streak but in a 162 game season, six in a row isn’t much. Before you go to bet on them straight up in the next game, consider this. In 2012, they had a 94-68 win-loss record, meaning they won about 58% of the time. That means they still have the same chances to win that seventh game – it’s not a guaranteed win based on momentum.
Embrace the Variance
Now that we see the momentum’s a myth, what’s with all the streaks? What about those patterns? It’s just variance.
Variance is a measure of how far a set of numbers is spread out. With low variance, the set of numbers is close, but with high variance, they are far apart. For example, the Indianapolis Colts were projected to be below average in 2012. They had an expected win total for the year of 5.5. Surprisingly they were 11-5 on the season, but that’s only because 10 of those wins were by a touchdown or less. Sports bettors may have chosen to wager on them because they were riding high on momentum even though they were projected to lose in many of those games.
High variance means that over a small period, you could win some money when you bet based on a team’s or player’s momentum, but the risk is greater. If you are looking to make money and grow your bankroll in the long run, a better strategy is to stick to bets with low variance and positive expected value
- See more at: http://www.wageronsports.com/sports-betting-strategy/general-betting-strategy/the-myth-of-momentum-in-sports/#sthash.Vda0JBcj.dpufsports momentum is a myth. Just because a team is on a winning streak doesn’t mean they will definitely win their next game. Just because the Irish upset favorites on their path to the top didn’t mean they were going beat the Tide.
Of course Notre Dame’s odds increased with every win of the season, but ultimately, after evaluating different player and team data, it’d be clear that Alabama had a significant advantage to win. Beware of narratives and motives behind them. It’s more positive for the media to sell a game by saying Notre Dame has “grit” and “moxie” than saying “Alabama will clean house.” It all boils down to stats and analysis when it comes to betting on sports.
Making Sense of Things
Bettors and fans alike are so keen to attribute a pattern to any sequence in order for it to make sense to them. For example, in the NBA, a hot hand in basketball was thought to be someone who was more likely to hit their next shot simply because they landed their last one. But the hot hand phenomenon was dispelled as untrue.
It was Thomas Gilovich, a professor of Psychology at Cornell, who discovered the fallacy. He reviewed the stats of the Philadelphia 76ers for one season. Gilovich found that not only were players not more likely to score just because they previously scored, but they actually had better odds of scoring after missing a shot. That means momentum had absolutely nothing to do with how many points a player scored.
Consider the Size
When wagering on sports, bettors may look to recent momentum to help form a sports betting strategy. It’s likely to be a strategy largely built on a limited sample size, though. (A streak is a streak for a reason after all.) The outcome could deviate (sometimes for the better, sometimes for the worse) especially in small sample sizes, but over a larger period, you’ll generally see performance regress towards the Vegas line.
Let’s say the Atlanta Braves won their first six games of the 2013 season. They might be on a hot streak but in a 162 game season, six in a row isn’t much. Before you go to bet on them straight up in the next game, consider this. In 2012, they had a 94-68 win-loss record, meaning they won about 58% of the time. That means they still have the same chances to win that seventh game – it’s not a guaranteed win based on momentum.
Embrace the Variance
Now that we see the momentum’s a myth, what’s with all the streaks? What about those patterns? It’s just variance.
Variance is a measure of how far a set of numbers is spread out. With low variance, the set of numbers is close, but with high variance, they are far apart. For example, the Indianapolis Colts were projected to be below average in 2012. They had an expected win total for the year of 5.5. Surprisingly they were 11-5 on the season, but that’s only because 10 of those wins were by a touchdown or less. Sports bettors may have chosen to wager on them because they were riding high on momentum even though they were projected to lose in many of those games.
High variance means that over a small period, you could win some money when you bet based on a team’s or player’s momentum, but the risk is greater. If you are looking to make money and grow your bankroll in the long run, a better strategy is to stick to bets with low variance and positive expected value
- See more at: http://www.wageronsports.com/sports-betting-strategy/general-betting-strategy/the-myth-of-momentum-in-sports/#sthash.Vda0JBcj.dpufSign up to Brodders' tips:
All Brodders bets for 2014 are currently showing a ROI of +6.08% (693 bets) (at 8th December 2014)
- He has had 8 out of 11 winning months so far in 2014.
- Betting £10 a point would be showing a profit of +£4886.70
Another good night for Brodders' on Thursday Europa League with 3 winners & a push from 4 bets and 38 points profit.
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What else is on Betting Emporium?
College Football bowl games started on December 20th and run until the end of this weekend. Stuart is doing write ups and analysis, free to access here
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Premier League Statistical Analysis – You can read this here still FREE to all registered users
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
£10 per point on every recommended bet since launch in Feb 2013 would be winning £12,288 (as at 8-1-15)
All bets have an ROI +5% and Horse Racing has an ROI +20.89%
There is also a Frequently Asked Questions Section
The Road to Riches: Weekend 3rd-4th January
Happy New Year to all "Road to Riches" readers.....
Coming Up this weekend
- NFL Play-Offs: Wild Card week. The play-offs start this weekend with four games over Saturday and Sunday on Wild Card weekend. For all Neil's play-off analysis and selections through to the superbowl sign up here
- FA Cup third round weekend with Arsenal v Hull on Sunday afternoon a repeat of last year's final.
- Racing, national hunt meetings at Sandown, Newcastle and Wincanton.
- Darts, the PDC World Championship at Alexandra Palace. The semi finals and final as the event concludes this weekend.
- Cricket, Test matches in Cape Town (South Africa v West Indies) and Wellington (New Zealand v Sri Lanka).
NFL Playoffs and Superbowl (3rd January - February 1st 2015) - full package £40 - sign up here
Neil Channing will be providing write ups and analysis on all the games:
WILD CARD ROUND - Saturday 3rd and Sunday 4th January 2014
DIVISIONAL ROUND - Saturday 10th and Sunday 11th January 2014
CONFERENCE CHAMPIONSHIPS - Sunday 18th January 2014
SUPERBOWL XLIX - Sunday 1st February 2014
| Playoffs and Superbowl XLIX - Write Ups and analysis | £40 Sign Up Here |
PDC World Darts Championship (Dec 18th 2014 - Jan 4th 2015) by Nigel Seeley
Match by match analysis and write ups of the semis and final.
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PDC World Darts Championship (full package) |
Free Tip of the Week
This week, to complement Neil's work on the start of the play offs with NFL Wild Card weekend, a look at the first of the four play-off games Arizona Cardinals at Carolina Panthers on Saturday evening, this time from the perspective of sub-market value.
The Cardinals (11-5) are the No. 5 seed in the NFC playoffs after finishing second in the NFC West having lost four of their last six games. Despite one of the league's best defenses, the relative decline in results occurred due to quarterback injuries which have stymied the points scoring potential of the team only scoring 64 points in those last four games. Current quarterback Ryan Lindley has completed less than 50 percent of his passes in the last two games, for 532 yards, two touchdowns and four interceptions, including three last weekend.
If this is a match up where momentum counts, Carolina have it and could well be a dangerous team in the play-offs. The defense in particular has improved dramatically through the season, returning to its 2013 form. It was ranked 24th in Weeks 1-9, then 5th in Weeks 10-17.
Opposing quarterbacks against the Panthers defense over final 4 regular season games finished: 81-of-145 (55.9%) for 815 yards (5.62 YPA) with only 3 Touchdowns & 5 Interceptions.
At the same time the Carolina offensive line, suspect all year, has been performing better and the offense has been heating up as a result. Against Atlanta last weekend Four Carolina rushers, including the quarterback, gained 40 yards or more running the ball too.
Arizona are likely to struggle to score points. We have the combination of a third choice quarterback and facing an in-form defense. This weights it quite strongly against Arizona scoring the first touchdown in my opinion, and therein lies the opportunity.
Looking at Carolina, they will try to run on Arizona and the once reliable Arizona run defense has allowed 473 rushing yards in the last two weeks. In part they will attempt to establish the run because moving the ball through the air on Arizona is difficult, they have one of the best cornerback tandems in the league in Patrick Peterson and Antonio Cromartie.
So which running back? Well the most likely is Johnathan Stewart with 175 carries, and 806 yards in the regular season. Carolina do have Cam Newton at quarterback though, one of the best "dual threat" quarterbacks in the game with over 100 runs this season, over 500 yards rushing and five rushing touchdowns. As long as the offensive line protects him well, and defenses look to account for Stewart first on rushing downs, Newton is a threat every game.
The market prices up Stewart and Newton both at 10-1+ for first touchdown scorer for the game, depending where you can get on.
I'm having 10 points each:
Johnathan Stewart first touchdown scorer - at BetVictor at 10-1
Cam Newton - first touchdown scorer at BetVictor or William Hill at 12-1
Bookmaker reviews and advice
Getting the best price available is very important for all those who take their betting seriously.
Please open an account with all those bookmakers on the page on this link that you do not already have an account with using the links provided.
Matchbook
Matchbook are a genuine bookmaking alternative for UK punters who are missing the likes of innacle and SBOBet. Matchbook are an exchange with good market liquidity and low commission rates (they charge 1.15% commission on all bets). They are very competitive on soccer and tennis and particularly NFL - especially closer to kick off with very thin margins. They also plan to add horse racing in early 2015. Matchbook are a must have for BettingEmporium.com customers. Open your Matchbook account here and get a £25 FREE bet.
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A New year. Some betting New Year resolutions (well, it makes a change from joining a gym. Again.)
- Sign up to Brodders' tips
Make a Brodders subscription. +£6,535 in 2014 to £10 a point stakes and a 7.65% ROI. Subscription to Brodders write ups, analysis and bets is £50 a month
Subscribe here
- Don’t be results orientated
It is easy to get in the mindset that every winning bet is a good one and every losing bet is a bad one. This is simply not the case. There’ll be many occasions when the opposite applies – some of your best bets will indeed be losing ones. Try and look objectively at a bet after the event, to see if the bet truly was value (win or lose).
- Adaptability
There’ll be many times when you decide upon a bet where you’ll be completely steadfast in your decision, and this is a normally a good place to be, as you’ll be completely confident. However, there will be times when that can be a problem, especially if you come across information that could or even should change your mind. Being adaptable and keeping on top of changing situations will only be a good thing
- Keep Records/ keep better records
There is no single thing that can improve your sports betting more than improving your record keeping. A few minutes every day to write down the bets you made and how they turned out gives so much powerful information. A surprising number of people just guess about how they are doing, and make overly optimistic assumptions and decisions based on those assumptions. It allows you to go back and look at the bets you make that win regularly and those that lose more often than they should. Once you know that you can avoid costly mistakes (cutting out some types of bets and sports entirely if neccesary) and edges that you may have.
- Learn a new statisticThere are standard stats that people know and embrace for every sport – In US Sports for example, which lead the way for depth of stats ERA and batting average in baseball, sacks and QB rating in football, points and assists in basketball. These are the tip of the iceberg. Metric-based analysis is progressing swiftly in the Premier League here for example.
In every one of those examples above, though, those statistics are far from the best way to understand how a team or player is performing, and how they may perform in the future. There are other, far more useful stats that are widely available, easy to understand, and far more powerful as an indicator and predictor. The new year would be a great time to understand one or more new statistics. Pick a new stat, understand it, and figure out if and how it can help you be a better winner. If nothing else, doing this will help you see what the problems are with the widely used stats.I do a fair amount of baseball betting, and my task this off-season is to learn “WAR” (Wins above replacement value for players) and see if it can help me on a daily basis when looking at match ups particularly for pitchers.
What else is on Betting Emporium?
College Football bowl games started on December 20th and run until January 12th. Stuart is doing write ups and analysis, free to access here
English Football - Leagues and Cups Stuart analyses the week's games in the FA Cup, free to access here
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
£10 per point on every recommended bet since launch in Feb 2013 would be winning +£13,292.90 (as at 22-12-14)
All bets have an ROI +5.71% and Horse Racing has an ROI +21.50%
There is also a Frequently Asked Questions Section
