The Road to Riches: Weekend 16th-17th May

Coming up this weekend

- Football, Two weeks to go in the Premier League season, and the Football League play-offs continue with the Championship second legs

- Racing, on the flat at Newbury, Newmarket, Thirsk and Doncaster and over the jumps at Uttoxeter and Bangor-on-Dee.

- Tennis, ATP and WTA Italian Opens in Rome.

- Golf, USPGA Tour: Wells Fargo Championship in North Carolina and European Tour: Open de Espana in Barcelona.

- Cricket, the start of the NatWest T20 blast competition on Friday night

Free Tip of the Week   

The NatWest T20 Blast starts on Friday night running to the end of August. The format of the competition sees the 18 counties split into two groups, North and South. Each plays 14 games, top 4 in each group through to the knockout stages and the final four through to finals day at Edgbaston near the end of the season.

In a tournament that each year lacks the buzz of the IPL and the Big Bash competitions elsewhere much as been made of the recruitment of stars into the tournament this season, with each team allowed to field two overseas players. Brendon McCullum, Glenn Maxwell, Tillakaratne Dilshan, Martin Guptill, Grant Elliott, Mahela Jayawardene, Kumar Sangakkara and Chris Gayle for example will all play in this season's competition. However the playing impact of this shouldn't be over-estimated with most overseas stars only playing part of the competition with International commitments through the summer and only one county, Kent, not employing at least one overseas player.

It is worth remembering that T20 cricket is a randomising format. Any team in this competition can beat any other over the short form of the game, particularly in English weather. The front end of the betting market this year has a familiar feel with 8 teams shorter than 20-1 headed by Notts and including last year's winners Birmingham and perennial strong performers like Essex, Surrey, Hampshire, Lancs, Somerset and Yorkshire. Any of these sides could make finals day but because every side is competitive, none are locks to even make it through the group stages. Form towards the back end of the event is key. Last year Birmingham had won just four of their first eleven games and were sixth in the North Group. Six wins later, they were the champions.

Over a long competition, I prefer to find a side at a price that can mix it with the big boys. Two years ago that side was Northants and after winning the competition then Northants struggled last year, winning only four group games and suffering from major injuries to key players. This time round they look able to compete again having changed the composition of their squad prior to this season. Northants bat right down the order and have dangerous county hitters like David Willey, Steve Crook,Josh Cobb and Adam Rossington in the team backing up the more orthodox batsmen. Richard Levi and Rory Kleinveldt provide international experience alongside the mercurial talents of Shahid Afridi for the first six games of the competition. They have two of the best death bowlers in county cricket in Willey and Mohammed Azarullah, seven of the side can be classed as all-rounders making them one of the best balanced sides and best of all their under-performance last year has meant they are in the market at 25-1 this time round. I would have them in the top eight of the market, all of whom are 12-1 and below, and an under-rated sleeper in a wide open competition.

5 points each-way Northants to win the NatWest T20 Blast at 25-1 (1/2 the odds 1,2) Sportingbet, Bet365, Skybet

Election betting review

When the general election exit poll came out at 10pm last Thursday the numbers seemed unbelievable. The initial figures, which predicted the Tories would win 316 seats, ended up to be an under-estimation and an overall majority was achieved. One pollster, 72 hours before the election, said that the chances of a majority government were now a "rounding error"!

As the night progressed we all adjusted to the fact that whilst forecasts had indeed got some of the most surprising things right the dominant narrative shaping this election – that it was neck-and-neck between Labour and the Conservatives and that a minority government or coalition was the only feasible outcome – turned out to be plain wrong

It is clear that the polls and forecasts had a bad election, the worst for opinion polling in Britain since 1992. As then the British Polling Council will set up an independent investigation into how the polls performed. The political adviser David Axelrod said afterwards "In all my years as journalist & strategist, I've never seen as stark a failure of polling as in UK. "

Overall Betting Emporium made a small profit on its election bets but this was more from accurately predicting the results of some seats and smaller party seat totals and of course a debate winner than getting the big picture right. In that we mirrored the performance of the pollsters. As soon as the exit poll came out, ideas of Labour minority government and Labour most seats bets placed weeks earlier looked highly unlikely and so it proved. Still, we weren't alone, a hung parliament was 1/16 five minutes before the exit poll

The question is why did the polls get it wrong?

The final crop of polls were roughly anticipating a tie and of course afterwards there was some back-fitting of the result to polling expectations. A Survation poll the day before had the result but wasn't released as it was considered an outlier, private polling on both sides was giving a more polarised view than public polls. Apparently on Tuesday the Conservatives received a private poll giving them a majority, but they were "sceptical".

Across the polls there appear to have been several errors:

1. Labour significantly underperformed compared with expectations set by polls. Support for Labour averaged 34% in the final polls, 3.5 points above the actual result and this was right on the boundary of polling margin of error. The figures for Ukip (12.5%), the Lib Dems (8%), and the Greens (4%) were within the polls’ margins of error. Although the Conservatives’ average in the final pre-election polls (34%) was also roughly three and a half points shy of the party’s actual result, several companies had the party’s share on 35-36%.
2. The spread of error in the Conservative and Labour results was 6.5 points, compared with 9 points in 1992. The Combined “big two” share of the popular vote was underestimated by 2 points
3. The Lib Dems’ result was terrible even in their strongholds. The party held on to only eight of their 57 seats, which is in stark contrast with the snapshots provided by constituency polling. In the end incumbency and strong local campaigns counted for nothing. Lib Dem vote share fell only slightly less in seats they were defending, nowhere near enough to save most Lib Dems from a 15 percentage point national decline
4. Although turnout saw a one-point increase on 2010, the level (66%) was significantly lower than that implied in most polls. 0.7 points of the increase in turnout was accounted for by Scotland (and broadly the pollsters got Scotland and the SNP spot on). Turnout in England and Wales was almost completely unchanged. - this means the opinion of non-voters weighed on polling numbers.

So what might the inquiry find?

1.Past vote weightings in polls ineffective. For example it looked like the polls had overestimated the proportion of UKIP support (and they won 4m votes ) that came from the Conservatives and under-estimated that which came from Labour, with a knock-on effect on estimates of support for the two main parties.

2. Non-Uniform National Swing. The Tory vote was up less than 1% nationally, but up 4% in marginals. More than ever before this was a series of local tactical battles and the link between top level polling and constituency outcomes was more tenuous this election than previously.

3 Shy and lazy voters. Since 1992 polling companies had made attempts to adjust their polling methods for voters reluctant to give their true voting intentions and yet in 2015 there was again an under-estimation of the right of centre vote

4. Overestimated likelihood to vote. It’s always been the case that the probability of respondents actually voting is over-stated. As long as the overestimation is even between parties, the polls will still be right. The problem is that it might not have been. The term "lazy labour" voters has been coined, because 12.2 million labour voters were implied from final polls and only 9.3 million voted.

French Tennis Open (Roland Garros) (19th May-7th June 2015)- by Nigel Seeley

All tennis covered since our launch in Feruary 2013 shows a +9.96% ROI and a £1158 profit at £10 a point

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Premier League 2014/15

Premier League Statistical Analysis 16th-17th May 2015 - write up for the weekend has been published here

Bookmaker reviews and advice

Getting the best price available is very important for all those who take their betting seriously.

Please open an account with all those bookmakers on the page on this link that you do not already have an account with using the links provided.

 There are literally hundreds of pounds on offer from bookmakers just for signing up through Bettingemporium.com

Betting Emporium results

The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS

£10 per point on every recommended bet since launch in Feb 2013 would be winning £10,463.40 (as at 28-04-15)

All bets have an ROI +3.26% and Horse Racing has an ROI +13.49%

There is also a Frequently Asked Questions Section

The Road to Riches: Weekend 9th-10th May

Coming up this weekend

- Football, three weeks to go in the Premier League season, and the start of the Football League play-offs

- Formula One, the Spanish Grand Prix is the start of the European slate of races through the summer

- Racing, on the flat at Ascot, Lingfield, Nottingham, Haydock and Thirsk and jumps at Hexham and Warwick

- Tennis, ATP and WTA Madrid Opens as the clay court season run up to the French Open continues

- Golf, USPGA Tour: The Players Championship at TPC Sawgrass, Florida. European Tour: the AfrAsia Bank Mauritius Open

- Cricket, the New Zealand tour of England begins with a tour match against Somerset at Taunton

Free Tip of the Week   

This week a look at the Spanish Grand Prix in Barcelona on Sunday, the first of the summer's European races. This is a significant race because after the fly-away races that start the season, teams bring their first major upgrades of the season to Spain at a track all the teams know well because they conduct two winter tests there.

Form so far this season has seen three Mercedes wins and Ferrari winning in Malaysia, and Ferrari closer  than expected to Mercedes in engine performance and with some advantages in tyre wear. One thing we have already seen, which is affecting race strategy and outcomes, is that whereas Mercedes engined teams are obliged to spend parts of the race in a more ‘conservative’ race mode, the Ferraris can run at a single more aggressive mode for the whole race.

Eight out of the last 10 races have been won from pole position in Spain (and only one from outside the first row of the grid). It is a front-limited circuit, from a tyre perspective, and if it is hot tyre degradation will be quite high which will suit Ferrari more than Mercedes but the likelihood of Mercedes on pole due to single lap pace is high (in Friday's free practices the Mercedes is up to a second quicker than the Ferrari ) and with prices for the front end of the grid short (Hamilton 1/2 for both pole and the win, both markets 7/1 bar Mercedes) we have to look further down the field and into sub-markets for value

In Barcelona engine manufacturers and teams are introducing updates with some of their “engine token" allocations for the season. Renault in particular, with the highest token allocation to use, will have an updated engine looking at fixing some of the reliability issues it has experienced with Red Bull and to a far lower extent Toro Rosso. For Red Bull, Ricciardo's engine expired at the finish of the last race, his third engine failure of the season. Kvyat only has two ninthh places in four races. In Friday Ricciardo hardly ran in free practice one and then had yet another engine failure at the start of free practice two.

The Toro Rosso should have the benefit of the Renault upgrades too without so many of the reliability issues afflicting Red Bull. Verstappen and Sainz ran comfortably in the top ten during Friday practices and are bigger prices for top ten/points finishes than Ricciardo is to hit the top six. Both are around the 6/4 mark for a points finish, both cars are competitive with the midfield pack and 6/4 on either is too long here. I prefer Verstappen slightly of the two, a real natural talent that is going to do very well as he moves through the F1 ranks.

10 points Max Verstappen Points Finish 6/4 Ladbrokes

Favourite-Longshot bias

Most bettors tend to over-value outsiders and under -value favourites. Bookmakers are known to set prices on underdogs much lower than they realistically should be and still get business at the lower price. The average bettor wants a decent as possible return for his money and would rather bet on a 5-1 shot which is probably a 8-1 shot, than a 1-3 shot that really is a 1-3 shot.  The stakes the average bettor will be using would also be such that betting at 1-3 does not give them a return which will interest them financially.

Pricing this way is a case of risk/reward for the bookmaker and they would rather have a lower liability in relation to what they can win. Reducing prices of outsiders means that when they do get hit by an outsider winning it will be covered by the many losers punters have had on these kinds of selections over the long term.

Odds on favourites are easier to price up and it’s on the bigger prices that the bookmakers feel they need to protect themselves against informed insiders and the general public exploiting new information. This is particularly important for the bookmaker in the horse racing markets.

With the introduction of Betfair and other exchanges where overrounds on popular markets are much smaller than with the bookmakers, the favourite longshot bias is perhaps not as prevalent as it once was. There is now much more competition in the markets generally and standout prices are often offered on outsiders to attract custom.

This is not to say that you couldn’t or can’t win backing longshots and if you are selective and can spot a price that is out of line you can still profit.

A 5-1 shot could realistically lose at least 30 times in a row and more especially if the real price is 8-1. You’re average bettor might place £10 on such a selection but can he/she survive even 20 losses in a row and still afford to bet £10 again? Many will not be able to and won’t believe that such a bad run is possible. At the same time they might be more cautious about having too much more than their usual stake on a 1.2 shot when in fact regularly backing at longer odds is likely to be much more costly.

So it’s not just the backing longer prices at poor value that’s a problem here it’s the amount the average bettor is prepared to stake on longer priced selections when they a) can’t really afford to withstand the losing streak b) wouldn’t have a similar proportioned stake on a short priced favourite. Even in a perfect market with no over round we still see a bias towards the underdog.

Value is not just about a good return on your money. It’s about finding a bet that wins more than the odds suggest and this is something a lot of regular bettors fail to recognise and evaluate. 

We are of course only talking about pre-match bets here and in play betting on the exchanges shows an opposite of the bias with people overestimating the chances of the leader. When a favourite takes a winning position early on it reaffirms what the market already believed and people get greedy pushing the price unrealistically low.

So, if you are looking to back a longshot pre-event make sure you have good reason to and that this is enough to compensate for the poor value you would likely get on average on this type of selection. Make sure you get the best odds available or as close to as possible.

French Tennis Open (Roland Garros) (19th May-7th June 2015)- by Nigel Seeley

All tennis covered since our launch in Feruary 2013 shows a +9.96% ROI and a £1158 profit at £10 a point

Sign up to Brodders' tips:

All Brodders bets since inception are currently showing a ROI of +5.63%  (at 17th March 2015)

Betting £10 a point would be showing a profit of +£5966.70

Subscription to Brodders' write ups, analysis and bets is £50 a month. You can join at any time

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Premier League 2014/15

Premier League Statistical Analysis 9th-10th May 2015 - write up for the weekend has been published here

Bookmaker reviews and advice

Getting the best price available is very important for all those who take their betting seriously.

Please open an account with all those bookmakers on the page on this link that you do not already have an account with using the links provided.

 There are literally hundreds of pounds on offer from bookmakers just for signing up through Bettingemporium.com

Betting Emporium results

The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS

£10 per point on every recommended bet since launch in Feb 2013 would be winning £10,463.40 (as at 28-04-15)

All bets have an ROI +3.26% and Horse Racing has an ROI +13.49%

There is also a Frequently Asked Questions Section

The Road to Riches: Weekend 2nd-3rd May

Coming up this weekend

- Football, a Premier League and Football League programme including Chelsea a win away from the title at home to Crystal Palace

- Racing, the first two classics of the 2015 season the 1000 and 2000 Guineas at Newmarket (see tip below) part of a programme including flat meetings at Goodwood, Thirsk and Doncaster and Uttoxeter and Hexham over the jumps

- Snooker, the final stages of the World Championship at the Crucible, Sheffield with the tournament concluding on Bank Holiday monday.

- Tennis, ATP BMW Open by in Munich and Millennium Estoril Open in Portugal.

- Golf, the World Golf Championships - Match Play at TPC Harding Park, San Francisco,

- Cricket, the third test of the England tour of the West Indies began in Barbados today.

- Rugby Union, the final of the European Champions Cup between Toulon and Clermont Auvergne at Twickenham

Free Tip of the Week   

Today, Neil Channing looks at the first Classic of the 2015 flat season, the 2000 Guineas at Newmarket

" I'm not always a huge fan of the 2,000 guineas as a great betting heat. There is usually a large field, we can't always be sure which horses are going to stay, it's certainly possible for an unexposed outsider to "fluke" a win and the horses will usually split causing an unsatisfactory result.

Just when I thought I was out three firms have dragged me back in by offering four places, which is obviously tempting as it's not a handicap and I think you can get it down to the seven of the nineteen runners who are under 20/1.

 Elm Park will probably be a non-runner as this ground is just too fast so betting with Paddy Power who have this one at 16/1 and won't charge a Rule 4 is the way forward.

I don't want to bet either O'Brien horses, I think his horses are not having a brilliant time and with Gleneagles I don't think he has all that much in hand.

Ivawood was dominant in the early stages of last season. I think a lot of that was due to him being a huge animal who just grew at a faster rate to the others who have now caught up.

Territories was pretty solid last year and he should run his race. Would be surprised really if he was out of the four and the high draw might be an advantage. All I really wanted to pull the trigger here was a slightly bigger price.

 Intilaaq is really interesting. He won a maiden in breathtakingly impressive fashion on Greenham day at Newbury and has been supplemented into this. The inexperience puts me off an each-way bet, I tend to feel he could win easily or be tailed off and I like something with less volatility about it's possible finishing position when I'm making two bets.

 Estidhkaar is the really solid one. I'd like him more if he had a higher draw but he has only ever run one bad race when he had a physical problem, he ran 2nd in the best trial when the two horses went clear, he goes on the ground and he's almost certain to stay. I can't really see him being out of the first four.

 I'm having 12 Points each-way Estidhkaar at 15/2 1/4 1234 with Paddy Power and Bet365 (would rather take 7/1 1234 than 8/1 123).

Fixed odds In-Play betting.

In-Play betting is now used on near enough every sport and beyond, from Premier League football to reality TV.  Not only can you bet on a wide range of sporting activities but you also have the option of betting on a mass amount of markets, which in theory, should enhance your chances of winning. Not only was the introduction of in-play betting a revelation to the punters but it was a godsend for the bookmakers themselves seeing substantial boosts in turnover.

Quantity over Quality

The vast majority of on-line bookmakers do feature on-line betting. However, only a select few do regular in-play markets for a wide variety of events. Some will stick to the main events like Football, and tennis whereas firms such as Bet365, especially via live streaming of once obscure events and sports pull out all the stops in their bid to lure in the punters with an array of in-play events at all times of the day.

Double Edged Sword

The ability to bet on an event while it's running has made for more entertainment and possibly more enjoyment but it also has attendant dangers especially if you're a so called 'Chaser'. The term chaser is used for a punter who chases gambling loses. With the availability of in-play markets now at a high, that now leads to more betting opportunities and possibly more methods of losing cash. The variety of in-play events can lead to punters betting on sports that they know very little or nothing at all about.

In-Play Tips

Discipline - Ensure you keep to a stable betting bank. If you lose, try not to chase your loses. A profitable bettor will pick his bets carefully and will be very selective.

Observation - It's pretty much pointless betting on an in-play event if you don't actually watch the event itself. The whole point of betting in-play is so you can view a sport and observe which team or player is on top and which you think might go on to win. Make sure you observe conditions, player(s)/team(s) performances, event statistics, the referee of umpires performance and attitude amongst other factors.

Avoid the unknown - Do not bet on anything you know very little about. Guessing an outcome will more then likely get you into trouble. Research is just as important when betting in-play as it is before an event kicks-off. Ensure you know the rules of the event as well as the teams or players involved.

Of course Betfair and Matchbook amongst other exchanges both feature in-play markets with the main advantage being the ability to place bets against other participants with low transaction and information costs, conspires to attract a heavier concentration of better informed, more financially focused bettors into the betting exchange marketplace. These more informed bettors typically seek out opportunities to identify misperceptions of probability, so as to benefit by removing or mitigating it, their presence in the betting market thus contributing towards,for example, the erosion of the favourite-longshot bias. Moreover, the forced removal of the once dominant risk averse bookmakers from the betting market, or at least the erosion of their monopoly position, serves to contribute to the development of near perfect 100% books on almost every sporting event.

Politics: The General Election

Coverage from Richard Prew and Neil Channing on the 2015 General Election markets. They are FREE to read for registered users and can be found HERE. This week, Plaid Cymru and UKIP, Seats and Markets and coming soon "Our Biggest Price Election Tip"

Analysis to date includes:

- the "Most Seats" Market

- Party seats markets

- the "Next Government" Market

- Individual Constituency markets

I am taking part in Matchbook's Experts Competition see HERE.

Matchbook have a great promotion of 0% (yes zero commission) on all General Election bets. You can also get a £25 RISK FREE bet by opening your account here

French Tennis Open (Roland Garros) (19th May-7th June 2015)- by Nigel Seeley

All tennis covered since our launch in Feruary 2013 shows a +9.96% ROI and a £1158 profit at £10 a point

Premier League Darts (5th Feb-21st May 2015)

We are into the second half of this year's Premier League Darts.

Nigel Seeley is providing weekly updates on all the matches.

Sign up to Brodders' tips:

All Brodders bets since inception are currently showing a ROI of +5.63%  (at 17th March 2015)

Betting £10 a point would be showing a profit of +£5966.70

Subscription to Brodders' write ups, analysis and bets is £50 a month. You can join at any time

Subscribe here

Premier League 2014/15

Premier League Statistical Analysis 2nd-3rd May 2015 - write up for the weekend has been published here

Bookmaker reviews and advice

Getting the best price available is very important for all those who take their betting seriously.

Please open an account with all those bookmakers on the page on this link that you do not already have an account with using the links provided.

 There are literally hundreds of pounds on offer from bookmakers just for signing up through Bettingemporium.com

Betting Emporium results

The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS

£10 per point on every recommended bet since launch in Feb 2013 would be winning £10,463.40 (as at 28-04-15)

All bets have an ROI +3.26% and Horse Racing has an ROI +13.49%

There is also a Frequently Asked Questions Section

The Road to Riches: Weekend 25th-26th April

The Road to Riches: Weekend 18th-19th April