Coming Up this weekend

- Football, .the Premier League returns after the International Break including Manchester United v Liverpool

 -Tennis, the conclusion of the US Open fortnight with finals this weekend

- Racing, flat meetings on Saturday at Doncaster, including the St Leger and at Bath,Chester, Lingfield Park and Musselburgh

- Cricket, the five match one day international series between England and Australia concludes at Old Trafford on Sunday

 - Golf, European Tour: KLM Open in, Zandvoort, The Netherlands and the Walker Cup at Royal Lytham & St. Annes

At times during the NFL Season this column will add NFL sub-market tips, intended to complement Neil Channing's weekly write ups which begin this week and are summarised below

NFL Regular Season starts September 10th 2015: Write ups and Analysis by Neil Channing

NFL 2015/16 Season (Ante Post, Outrights and Specials): Free access, You can read it here

New Orleans Saints at Arizona Cardinals

The New Orleans Saints are an NFL franchise in flux, with significant off-season restructuring required to get the roster under the salary cap due to “dead money” financial commitments from players no longer on the roster. That dead money is eating up roughly 15 percent of New Orleans' salary cap this year.

This has implications for constructing their roster, and in turn their likely style of play this season. Quarterback Drew Brees is in the last few years of his career and several of his leading receiving options have left the club.

The Saints want to re-emphasise the running game this year (and protect Brees better) behind a re-tooled offensive line including Max Unger from the Seahawks who they received in the Jimmy Graham trade and they have a very good backfield to cover up an unproven receiver group. A ball control offense could also put less pressure on a very young and erratic defense. This is using offense as defense, trying to control time of possession and keep the ball away from their opponents

Mark Ingram is the Saints lead back. Ingram finished 2014 with 9 touchdowns in 9 games started, missing some of the season through injury, and nearly 1,000 yards rushing. He averaged over 19 carries over his final ten games, and at 4.65 yards per carry in the last two seasons is one of the better, and under-rated, running backs in the league. Ingram begins the season as New Orleans' early-down and goal-line back. Ingram led the NFL with 20 carries inside the opposing five-yard line last year.

So, First touchdown scorer markets

What are we looking for when finding potential opportunities in this sub-market? Ideally all of the following:

- The team tendencies are to run first, at worst a balanced offense

- A strong offensive line and an above average lead back

- playing a run defense with at least question marks, ideally with a better passing defense alongside

- your player is on the home team

I’ve dealt with the first two points. For the second two, the Cardinals lost their top defensive co-ordinator Todd Bowles to a head coaching position and their top run stopper, nose tackle Dan Williams left in free agency. Their defensive secondary looks stronger than their front seven

In terms of wanting to be with the home side, you would like the team of the player you back to get the ball first and get the first opportunity to drive down the field and score. Whilst it doesn’t always follow, the home team winning the toss will often elect to receive the ball first. The away team will often elect to defer, for the simple reason that they get the ball at the start of the second half when the noise in the stadium is quieter (people late back to their seats) and it is easier to run an offense for an away side, especially in a dome which the game we are looking at is.

If most or all of that is in place, then you just need some good fortune to convert on these tendencies. Of course in any game you might not score on your first possession and if you do it could be through the passing game. However you can see where the variables might be in your favour and look to crystallise the value you have identified

8 points Mark Ingram first touchdown scorer Arizona Cardinals at New Orleans Saints 15/2 Bet365

Note, in the run up to Sunday more firms will put first/anytime touchdown scorer prices up. Check back over the weekend, 8-1+ might emerge.

Anyone thinking of betting on the NFL this season needs a Matchbook account. Get up to £50 welcome Bonus too sign up here

Betting Industry Consolidation Part Two

The online gambling industry is still a relatively young one, and still constantly evolving. The margins are often quite low for operators, and so moves to consolidate are not unexpected.

Here I explore what deals of this type might mean for the people that really matter in this industry – the customers.

Less Choice

The most obvious effect of consolidation within the industry is that we may end up with less choice of where to bet. This isn’t guaranteed, as companies will often decide to continue to operate multiple sites even after mergers such as initially announced by Ladbrokes and Coral, who intend to retain two platforms but it seems a likely possibility. After all, two trading rooms and back office platforms are a lot of cost for a merged entity and a large part of the rationale of the consolidation is to cut costs.

Most pertinent for most of us will be whether consolidation is more likely to enable us to get on, and here I would suggest it is highly unlikely to make a positive difference. The main financial issues behind the consolidation are not customer-centric at all

Less Competition

If there was to be less choice for us as consumers than there would naturally be less competition between the operators. This could well have a negative effect on us in terms of the bonuses and rewards we receive, as it is the competitive nature of the gambling industry that’s a major reason why sites offer these.

I’m not sure many customers would gamble much less overall if there were no bonuses and rewards at all. As gambling operators are probably fully aware of this, in a less competitive market they may well be less inclined to offer so much extra value to their customers.

Higher Margins

One of the major potential benefits for companies involved in mergers or acquisitions is higher margins.The main point is simply that at least part of the motivation for such deals is usually to increase profits through economies of scale and improved efficiency.

Any increased profits for a gambling operator as a result of a merger or acquisition are most likely to end up with owners or shareholders than customers

More Innovation?

In online gambling the opportunity is opening up for brands to leverage their own customer data to better deliver ever-more personalised betting experiences to the customer. As device sizes get smaller use data to provide customers with what they want, with the fewest interactions possible, and use machine learning to make the right recommendations and suggestions, just as Uber is doing for transportation or Spotify is for music.

Most operators are at this stage still “running blind” when it comes to using their own data. The more forward-thinking operators will know one of the inevitable truths about pushing out new ideas: the successful ones will be copied, and quickly. In a presentation to investors given at the end of last year, Betfair – which has recently had some success with its newer product and marketing innovations such as ‘Cash Out’ and ‘Price Rush’ – put a limit of six months for any successful new enhancement before the competition brought out its own copycat product.

That may not sound like a long time – but it’s enough to have helped Betfair to a 52% rise in customer numbers in the financial year to April, and prompted analysts to suggest the successful repositioning of the business as a mass-market sports-betting and gaming provider was being aided by its innovative approach. “Key product differentiators should increase customer loyalty, driving strong long-term returns,” the analysts added.

Conclusion

The end result will probably be that we have fewer places to bet and play.. I think we might end up seeing smaller sign up bonuses if there is a little less competition in the market, as sites may choose not to spend so much of their resources on attracting new players. However, I suspect this will be balanced out by a greater focus on retaining existing customers. This could mean better VIP programs and loyalty schemes for the regulars, and these tend to offer better value in the long term anyway.

All Brodders bets since January 2014 are currently showing a ROI of +2.87% (over 1500 bets) (at 25th August 2015)

Betting £10 a point would be showing a profit of +£4722.30

Subscribe here

Bookmaker reviews and advice

Getting the best price available is very important for all those who take their betting seriously.

Please open an account with all those bookmakers on the page on this link that you do not already have an account with using the links provided.

 There are literally hundreds of pounds on offer from bookmakers just for signing up through Bettingemporium.com

Betting Emporium results

The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS

£10 per point on every recommended bet since launch in Feb 2013 would be winning £11,330.10 (as at 25th August 2015)

All bets have an ROI +2.9% and Horse Racing has an ROI +7.78%

There is also a Frequently Asked Questions Section

Coming Up this weekend

- Football, .The International break for the Premier League. England play in San Marino on Saturday at 5pm.

 -Tennis, the middle weekend of the US Open at Flushing Meadow, New York

- Formula One, the Italian Grand Prix at Monza

- Racing, flat meetings on Saturday at Ascot, Haydock Park, Kempton Park, Thirsk, Wolverhampton and over the jumps at Stratford-on-avon

- Cricket, the second of a five match one day international series between England and Australia at Lords

 - Golf, European Tour: M2M Russian Open in Moscow and USPGA Tour: Deutsche Bank Championship, TPC Boston, Massachusetts.

- Rugby Union, England v Ireland, France v Scotland and Wales v Italy in World Cup warm up matches

Neil Channing on the Final Furlong podcast

The Final Furlong Podcast is a weekly Horse Racing Show that discusses the big issues in racing and previews the top races in Ireland and Great Britain. Hosted by Emmet Kennedy, his resident guests were joined a fortnight ago by Neil Channing and Tony Calvin for a wide ranging discussion entitled "Are bookmaker restrictions and account closures affecting the industry?"

You can listen to it HERE

Free Tip of the Week :

The second match in a five game ODI series that concludes the Ashes tour takes place at Lords on Saturday

In the first match England let Australia off the hook twice as Australia recovered from 195-6 and then England collapsed from 172-3 to 246 all out

Before the first match outright prices for the series havd Australia 8/15 and England 15/8, but this promises to be a close series. Understandably Australia are favourites with a much better record in the format and match-winning potential from their senior players, but England are a more formidable proposition than they were the last two times the teams played in this format

The question of the pitches the series is likely to be played on is crucial. Versus New Zealand in the first part of the summer, the series was played on good pace pitches with bounce and this led to attractive cricket, good stroke-play and high scores. This was also the case at Cardiff for Monday’s T20 international and if it is to be continued for these five games England can win any of the games because their depth of batting and aggressive approach suits faster tracks

It is on tired/used pitches that England’s weaknesses are exposed with more difficult amassing scores on such decks. Of course we have to bear in mind that late summer in England may see inclement weather and some seam friendly conditions

Looking at this game:

Top Australian bowler

Starc's favouritism (he will be 5/2 or shorter in any ODI he plays to be Top Australian bowler) is well deserved and BE readers will have done well supporting him because he has been recommended in various markets. In 42 ODIs before this series he has 85 wickets at a strike rate of 23.1 and economy rate of 4.73. He was joint top wicket-taker in the world cup with 22 and was top Australian ashes wicket taker with 18 despite inconsistencies with the red ball.

Cummins' career is more embryonic and has been blighted by injury as is often the case for young fast bowlers. In 13 ODIs he has 21 wickets at a strike rate of 29.1 and economy rate of 5.83. Cummins showed in the T20 International that he can challenge Starc here. Bowling at up to 93-94 mph he troubled the batsmen and showed impressive skills in the last overs too with yorkers. I happened to watch him live for the first time a month or so ago when the Australians played a tour match at Northampton, he took a few wickets, blasted away the tail and went into my notebook.

In the first match of the series four bowlers took two wickets each but with Starc as 5/2 or below there is an opportunity to get with Cummins in this type of market as he blossoms

At Southampton, on a pitch with no swing, 6 bowlers were used. Apart from Cummins, who went wicketless in his first spell but came back at the death to take a couple of wickets, the line up is a bit one paced. The three support bowlers (Marsh, Watson and Maxwell) shared 20 overs and that helps explain why the three are 6/1 and above in this market.

Starc i have mentioned and the third front-line blower is Nathan Coulter-Nile who lacks the outright pace of Cummins and whilst has plenty of white ball experience lacks the range of wicket taking options that Starc has

Assuming that Lords will be another flat pitch, designed to produce a high scoring spectacle, Cummins has something extra, and his outright pace makes him an attractive option as long as we are getting up to a point more than the Starc price

5 points Pat Cummins Top Australian bowler second ODI 7/2 Ladbrokes

Top England bowler

I was going to suggest David Willey (of Northants who did so much to get us close to winning the T20 Blast bet last weekend) to win this market because prices still fail to factor in his skill and potential in the format but, inexplicably to me, he wasn't selected for the first game with Woakes (0-57 off 9) and Wood (1-72 off 10) preferred. It could be that he plays at Lords and i will present the case anyway

Bowling at both ends of the innings Willey was the top T20 England bowler at Cardiff. He can swing the white ball at the beginning of an innings and then at the end he takes wickets when batsmen are taking risks. In principle in this sub-market I far prefer backing bowlers bowling at the beginning/ends of innings than those bowling in the middle overs where the main task of batsmen is to accumulate not survive (at the beginning) and accelerate (at the end)

It is early in his England career, but just going through the five international games he has played before this series is interesting.

ODIs v New Zealand

game 1 3 wickets. top england bowler

game 2 2 wickets: dead heat top england bowler

game 3 2 wickers 2nd top england bowler

T20s

v NZ  3 wickets. dead heat top england bowler

v Aus 2 wickets top england bowler

Of course a return from  four of the five games in this market is only a small sample size, but at 4/1+ if he does play on Saturday, I will be on Willey too.

Betting Industry Consolidation

A combination of high overheads and tighter industry regulation has led to a series of high-street shop closures and M&A activity across the gambling industry. Last week Paddy Power announced that it wants to merge with Betfair. The combined business could become one of the world’s biggest online betting and gaming companies, with annual revenues of more than £1 billion. Share prices in both companies soared after the deal was made public.

As Paddy Power and Betfair provide different but complementary services, there are unlikely to be any competition issues in Britain. It fuses Betfair’s betting exchange and presence in Europe and the United States with Paddy Power’s online business, UK and Irish high street outlets and Australian operation. Paddy Power’s and Betfair’s proposed deal has been driven as much by regulatory and tax issues as anything else.

The British gambling industry has a tough time with Parliament and regulatory bodies, despite contributing over £2.3 billion towards GDP. The reason is ultimately why many bookmakers located themselves in Gibraltar as a means of significantly reducing their tax burden. The introduction of the point of consumption tax, which requires a 15% levy on profits arising from British transactions regardless of the bookmakers’ domicile, has become yet another burden to the gambling sector and been the real tipping point for the industry to consolidate, no longer being able to domicile abroad and protect themselves from the regulation. Duties on fixed-odds machines and licensing fees are further examples of the mounting efforts by the UK parliament to heavily tax the industry.Just this week the introduction of the PoC tax in the UK and Europe's harsher new VAT regime were cited as the two main causes for a 17 percent fall in EBITDA reported by 888 Holdings in the first half of 2015.

Theoretically industry consolidation would enable the gambling sector to shield itself from the onerous taxation and regulation through economies of scale and significant cost savings. Margins are quite low for operators, and so moves to consolidate by the means of mergers and acquisitions should not be considered at all unusual. They are simply a natural development for the sector, which needs to be much more efficient.

The deal last week comes as the latest in a series of mergers and takeovers in the industry over the past year or so. Ladbrokes and Gala Coral signed a £2.3 billion deal recently that seeks to expand their business online. In July 888 Holdings thought its bid for Bwin.party had been secured with a £900m offer; but now all bets are off, as Bwin is looking again at a rival bid from GVC Holdings, the owner of Sportingbet. That still leaves companies like William Hill, which also tried to buy 888, seeking a place in the rapidly changing market. It is odds-on that we will see more consolidation in the coming months.

Jim Mullen, who took the helm at Ladbrokes in April, said that further consolidation was “inevitable” and that “it’ll be a different landscape in five years' time”.

Next week I will look at what the rapidly changing composition of the industry might mean for the industry’s customers -us.

All Brodders bets since January 2014 are currently showing a ROI of +2.87% (over 1500 bets) (at 25th August 2015)

Betting £10 a point would be showing a profit of +£4722.30

Subscribe here

Bookmaker reviews and advice

Getting the best price available is very important for all those who take their betting seriously.

Please open an account with all those bookmakers on the page on this link that you do not already have an account with using the links provided.

 There are literally hundreds of pounds on offer from bookmakers just for signing up through Bettingemporium.com

Betting Emporium results

The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS

£10 per point on every recommended bet since launch in Feb 2013 would be winning £11,330.10 (as at 25th August 2015)

All bets have an ROI +2.9% and Horse Racing has an ROI +7.78%

There is also a Frequently Asked Questions Section

Coming Up this weekend

- Football, .A full weekend Premier and football league programme including Newcastle United v Arsenal. 'Premier League Over/Under 2.5 Goal Analysis' is back, you can read it here

- Golf, USPGA Tour: The Barclays in New Jersey, USA. European Tour: D+D Real Czech Masters in Prague.

- Racing, flat meetings on Saturday at Beverley, Goodwood (see tip below), Newmarket, Windsor and Cartmel over the jumps

- Cricket, T20 Finals Day at Edgbaston, see article below

 -Tennis, the final tournaments before the US Open. ATP Winston-Salem Open in North Carolina and WTA Connecticut Open in New Haven.

- Rugby Union, Ireland v Wales and Scotland v Italy in World Cup Warm Ups

- Athletics, the final weekend of the IAAF World Championships in Beijing

Neil Channing on the Final Furlong podcast

The Final Furlong Podcast is a weekly Horse Racing Show that discusses the big issues in racing and previews the top races in Ireland and Great Britain. Hosted by Emmet Kennedy, his resident guests were joined a fortnight ago by Neil Channing and Tony Calvin for a wide ranging discussion entitled "Are bookmaker restrictions and account closures affecting the industry?"

You can listen to it HERE

Free Tip of the Week :

This week Neil Channing looks at tomorrow's 2.35 at Goodwood, a 7f handicap

Back on the 16th May I wrote in this column wrote about this season's NatWest T20 Blast which reaches a conclusion this weekend with Finals day at Edgbaston

The recommended tip was as follows

5 points each-way Northants to win the NatWest T20 Blast at 25-1 (1/2 the odds 1,2) Sportingbet, Bet365, Skybet

and Northants have made finals day, thanks to winning their quarter-final at Sussex in large part due to a brilliant 40 ball 100 from David Willey.

Also reaching finals day are holders and hosts Birmingham, Hampshire and Lancashire. With the draw for the semi-finals about to made I sat and muttered "don't get Birmingham, don't get Birmingham" because Birmingham are the best all-round team in this year's tournament

The draw came out as follows

Northants v Birmingham

Hampshire v Lancashire

Outright prices are as follows

Birmingham 9/4

Hampshire 11/4

Lancashire 100/30

Northants 4/1

Northants are 11/8 underdogs for the first semi, Lancashire 11/10 underdogs for the second.

In terms of looking at finals day in the light of our existing position I am reminded of Neil's comments in his recent USPGA coverage ahead of the final day, with Day leading

All tennis bets over the last two years are showing an ROI of +10.08%. Betting £10 a point you would be winning £2031.30

Rugby World Cup

All Brodders bets since January 2014 are currently showing a ROI of +2.87% (over 1500 bets) (at 25th August 2015)

Betting £10 a point would be showing a profit of +£4722.30

Subscribe here

Bookmaker reviews and advice

Getting the best price available is very important for all those who take their betting seriously.

Please open an account with all those bookmakers on the page on this link that you do not already have an account with using the links provided.

 There are literally hundreds of pounds on offer from bookmakers just for signing up through Bettingemporium.com

Betting Emporium results

The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS

£10 per point on every recommended bet since launch in Feb 2013 would be winning £11,330.10 (as at 25th August 2015)

All bets have an ROI +2.9% and Horse Racing has an ROI +7.78%

There is also a Frequently Asked Questions Section

Coming Up this weekend

- Football, .A full weekend Premier and football league programme including Manchester United v Newcastle and Everton v Manchester City

- Golf, USPGA Tour: Wyndham Championship in Greensboro, North Carolina and European Tour: Made in Denmark at Himmerland Golf & Spa Resort in Denmark.

- Racing, flat meetings on Saturday including the final day of the Ebor meeting at York, and at Chester, Sandown and Bath. Chelmsford on the all-weather and National hunt meetings at Newton Abbot and Perth

- Cricket, Days three and four of the final Ashes test of the Summer at the Oval.

 -Tennis, ATP and WTA Western & Southern Opens in Cincinnati, Ohio.

- Rugby Union,  France v England and Italy v Scotland in world cup warm-up matches

Neil Channing on the Final Furlong podcast

The Final Furlong Podcast is a weekly Horse Racing Show that discusses the big issues in racing and previews the top races in Ireland and Great Britain. Hosted by Emmet Kennedy, his resident guests were joined last week by Neil Channing and Tony Calvin for a wide ranging discussion entitled "Are bookmaker restrictions and account closures affecting the industry?"

You can listen to it HERE

Free Tip of the Week :

Formula 1 returns this weekend with the Belgian Grand Prix at Spa-Francorchamps.

Sebastian Vettel and Ferrari ended Mercedes’ seven-race winning streak by winning last time in Hungary ahead of Daniil Kyvat and Daniel Ricciardo. It was the first ever podium for Kyvat, the first podium of the year for Red Bull and the first double podium for Red Bull since September, 2014.

Lewis Hamilton is the clear favorite in this race at 1/2 ahead of Nico Rosberg at 9/4 and Sebastian Vettel at 141.

Spa-Francorchamps is known and respected as one of the most challenging circuits in the world. As well as being one of the fastest circuits on the modern calendar, the Ardennes climate often throws a spanner in the works in the form of sudden downpours.

It is a power track, at Spa medium speed corners are connected by a series of flat-out sections, two of which are on significant inclines. This tilts the competitive balance away from the packages able to produce the kind of down-force levels that would excel in Hungary, and towards the slippery, aero-efficient set-ups which are likely to be seen again in even more extreme form at Monza in two weeks' time.

For the four teams with Mercedes engines - the Mercedes works team, Williams, Force India and Lotus - it is set fair for them to have an advantage on the long straights particularly after Eau Rouge and the first DRS zone for over-taking .

There are other variables though, the possibility of changeable weather the event and the further implementation of stricter limitations on driver aids and coaching with the changes having a "a particular emphasis on race starts" are the major two issues.

F1's governing body has become concerned that drivers receive too much coaching and information from their teams in order to perfect their starts.

"These measures will bring back the driver in full control of the car, enhancing races' excitement and unpredictability," said a governing body statement.

We have already seen an impact in recent race starts of the changes taking place, particularly Mercedes struggling to hook their cars up well. Lewis Hamilton has started the last three races from the front of the grid, yet his getaways have got progressively worse. In Austria he finished lap one in second place, in Britain he was third, and in Hungary he had fallen to fourth, and that could be a trend that will continue at Spa

So the combination of more uncertain variables means unpredictability and less certain betting outcomes as we saw in Hungary. Once the Mercedes, which can be expected to occupy the front row of the grid here too, are embroiled in having to overtake cars rather than just lead from the front for the whole race, the risks of taking short odds on their victory is higher.

So with the outright market efficiently priced and with more variables than normal for this race, I turned to the sub-markets.

Valtteri Bottas finished on the podium in Canada in June, a result he would have repeated at Silverstone two races later had the team strategy allowed him past his team mate when the team were 1-2 early on in the race. Spa should be a real fit for the quick Williams as the team try to improve past Ferrari as Mercedes' closest challengers.The power-hungry nature of this track and cooler weather suggests that Williams will be ahead of Ferrari here.

Bottas finished third here last season and odds of 11/2 look fair value for another podium finish

5 points Valtteri Bottas Belgian Grand Prix 11/2 Coral

Rugby World Cup

All Brodders bets since January 2014 are currently showing a ROI of +4.52% (over 1300 bets) (at 21st July 2015)

Betting £10 a point would be showing a profit of +£7093.50

Subscribe here

Bookmaker reviews and advice

Getting the best price available is very important for all those who take their betting seriously.

Please open an account with all those bookmakers on the page on this link that you do not already have an account with using the links provided.

 There are literally hundreds of pounds on offer from bookmakers just for signing up through Bettingemporium.com

Betting Emporium results

The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS

£10 per point on every recommended bet since launch in Feb 2013 would be winning £11,148.88 (as at 21st July 2015)

All bets have an ROI +2.98% and Horse Racing has an ROI +9.43%

There is also a Frequently Asked Questions Section

Coming Up this weekend

- Football, .Aston Villa host Manchester United in the first televised Friday night Premier League game at the beginning of a full weekend Premier and football league programme

- Golf, the final major of the season, the USPGA at Whistling Straits in Wisconsin. See Neil's analysis here

- Racing, flat meetings on Saturday at Doncaster, Newbury, Newmarket, Ripon and Lingfield Park

- Cricket, the last of the Nat West T20 Blast Quarter finals on Saturday, Kent against Lancashire at Canterbury

- Tennis, the WTA Rogers Cup in Toronto and the ATP Coupe Rogers in Montreal

- Rugby Union, New Zealand against Australia in the second Bledisloe Cup game and England v France and Ireland v Scotland in Rugby World Cup warm up games

Free Tip of the Week :

This week has seen the Quarter Finals of the Nat West T20 Blast and on Wednesday night this column's 25-1 each way ante-post tip Northants made finals day on 29th August by beating Sussex thanks in large part to David Willey's 100 off 40 balls and 3-27 opening the bowling.

The final quarter-final takes place on Saturday afternoon at 2.30pm, live on Sky Sports

Kent play Lancashire at Canterbury. Kent topped the South group with 19 points, Lancashire finished fourth in the North group.

Kent’s appearance at this stage has been coming for a couple of years. With money tight and no overseas players in their ranks, it has been all about the local lads who have come through the ranks, primarily batsmen like England U19 opener Daniel Bell-Drummond, England ODI wicket-keeper batsman Sam Billings and hard-hitting finisher Alex Blake. Most importantly of all though Sam Northeast has done a brilliant job as captain and was the second highest run-scorer in the group stages of the tournament with 627 runs, batting at three with a hundred and four fifties. This was nearly 300 runs ahead of the next Kent batsman

Lancashire are the more experienced team and are full of quality. Ashwell Prince is a steady source of runs, skipper Steven Croft is one of the most under-rated all-rounders on the circuit and in James Faulkner they have one of the best death bowlers in world cricket.

This could be a very close game and Lancashire are 6/5 underdogs to Kent at 4/5. If anything i like Lancashire here because their bowling has more consistency and depth than Kent. Of their five bowlers who have played 10 or more games in this year's competition four have economy rates of 7.15 runs per over or under with three of the five recording strike rates of 15 or under. For Kent's four bowlers with double digit games none are under 7.66 runs per over economy or under 15 on strike rate.

As ever though in a one off game in cricket's shortest and most random format outright value is pretty marginal. For this week's tip we look at the top Kent batsman market. Sam Northeast should be favourite on weight of runs alone of course but I would be concerned about early wickets.

It's always a bit fraught recommending batsmen who bat 5 or lower in a T20 because of course there is the risk that they won't face the balls required to make an impact if the top order fires. It may be worth taking a chance here though.

Alex Blake is a hitter. In the competition so far this season he has 301 runs off 174 balls with three fifties. The 10-1 on offer with BetVictor and a few other places is quite tempting because, much like David Willey for Northants, he's a match winner irrespective of pitch conditions and can score extremely quickly. If there are early wickets, as i suspect, the 10-1 is a very live price indeed. Coincidentally, these two sides met in the 50 over competition last week. Chasing 258 and with Kent struggling when he came in, Blake scored 89 off 56 balls with 7 sixes. That gives an indication of his potential.

4 points Alex Blake Top Kent batsman T20 Quarter final v Lancashire 10-1 BetVictor

The Ashes

Coverage of the 2015 Ashes series between England and Australia, FREE to read for registered users HERE

Sign up to Brodders' tips:

All Brodders bets since January 2014 are currently showing a ROI of +4.52% (over 1300 bets) (at 21st July 2015)

Betting £10 a point would be showing a profit of +£7093.50

Subscribe here

Bookmaker reviews and advice

Getting the best price available is very important for all those who take their betting seriously.

Please open an account with all those bookmakers on the page on this link that you do not already have an account with using the links provided.

 There are literally hundreds of pounds on offer from bookmakers just for signing up through Bettingemporium.com

Betting Emporium results

The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS

£10 per point on every recommended bet since launch in Feb 2013 would be winning £11,148.88 (as at 21st July 2015)

All bets have an ROI +2.98% and Horse Racing has an ROI +9.43%

There is also a Frequently Asked Questions Section