Weekly Articles "Road to Riches" by Rich 'Tighty' Prew
The Road to Riches: Christmas Weekend
- Football, the Premier League continues with a hectic Christmas schedule highlights including Liverpool v Leicester on the 26th and Manchester United v Chelsea on the 28th, followed by Leicester v Manchester City on the 29th. A new write up in 'Premier League Over/Under 2.5 Goal Analysis' has been published. Read it here
- NFL Week 16. Sign up for week 16 coverage here
- Racing, Boxing day national hunt fixtures at Kempton (see free tip below), Fontwell Park, Huntingdon, Market Rasen, Sedgefield, Wetherby and Wincanton, together with Wolverhampton on the all-weather.
- Darts, the PDC World Championship continues
- Cricket, the first Test match between Suth Africa and England begins on Boxing day in Durban.
PDC World Darts Championship (Dec 17th 2015 - Jan 3rd 2016)
Nigel Seeley is covering the PDC Darts World Championship for us. Access to the preview, to all the match analysis and details of all the bets that we are having is £50.
| £50 Sign up here | PDC World Darts Championship (Dec 17th 2015 - Jan 3rd 2016) |
Free Tip of the week by Neil Channing
The King George VI Chase: Saturday 26th December, Kempton 3.10pm
The King George is undoubtedly a great race most years but this year it's really good. Apart from the fact that it's the focal point of some great racing over the Christmas season and an important pointer for the Festival it's also a brilliant betting heat especially with many firms offering 1/4 odds.
I certainly can't make a strong case against the favourite Don Cossack, apart from the fact he is a fairly short price, but I wouldn't recommend rushing to lay him at 9/4 or higher. I wouldn't want to back Vautour at these kind of prices though. The horse is a doubtful stayer for sure and as well as being beaten at Ascot last time he also jumped a fair bit to his left which won't help here. This would be the easiest one to put a big line through given the price.
Many people will be rushing to back their old pals here and it's true it's a race that horses come back to year after year. It's clear Silviniaco Conti is so much better on these flat tracks and it wouldn't really surprise me if he ran well but he was pretty easily beaten at Haydock by Cue Card and although he is double the price and possibly value to place at around 2/1 it is quite easy to make a bold case that the horse has just gone and will never run up to his best again. Cue Card ought to beat Conti again here and the horse has clearly benefited from getting his wind sorted out, he seems a different animal. They say that the new Tizzard yard at the top of the hill means he gets fresh air blowing through all day long and that helps too. My main problems with betting Cue Card here are the price, just feels a couple of points too short and the fact that he hasn't always quite gotten home in this race in the past. I do think that the presence of a couple of other potential front runners might make it a tough ask. The 3rd of the old brigade is Al Ferof but I'm not sure that the form of the Peterborough Chase was up to much. One horse ran of in front at a suicidal pace and maybe he just had the run of the race. He also goes so much better fresh.
Valseur Lido is a nice young improving horse but he may not love a slog around here over this trip and Ballynagour ios out of form and well held by some of these.
I've left myself with two possible bets and I'm going to reluctantly pass on one but play the other at a big price. I wouldn't tall put you off betting both.
I backed Smad Place in last year's Gold Cup and he ran sort of Ok but in the Hennessey he was very impressive over a long distance on pretty soft ground. I think the horse will relish this right-handed circuit even more and I really admire his trainer Alan King who has his string in good form. It is tough to get them to keep peaking at the right time though and this race might offer more of a challenge for the lead. At 12/1 a week ago or 20/1 just after the Hennessey I'd quite like this one but at this price I think I'll pass.
The one I'm going for would need to run his best ever race to win the King George and the improvement needed could be a stone. I mentioned that I liked this horse last week and a couple of people suggested I was mad and that it had no chance.
This is what I would say. First of all I am going to bet the horse each-way and I'll be absolutely delighted to get 3rd place which may simply need the horse to run up to his normal level of form. Secondly it's possible that horses like Al Ferof, Vautour and Silviniaco Conti simply do not run up to their best form and that the race falls apart a little. I also think there is a chance that Cue Card, Smad Place and Conti ensure a huge gallop and that some animals are able to run on through the field with the race falling apart. In those circumstances just running to a normal level of form through beaten horses could do it. On top of all that you do have a chance that the horse will improve.
I'm talking about Irish Cavalier a very nice six year old trained by Rebecca Curtis who has a Cheltenham Festival win to his name and who has proved himself capable at this trip and on this ground. The horse won his re-appearance race of the year pretty easily but then ran a little poorly in the Paddy Power at Cheltenham at a time when the stable's horses were not running well. A problem with the hay was identified and in the last couple of weeks things have appeared to be right back on tracks with several winners. I definitely think we haven't seen the best of this one and he could be potentially very good. Several firms are giving 1/4 123 with 40/1 which means you are taking under the Betfair odds on the win but over on the place. You can also get 50/1 with 1/5th odds which is clearly better but it's just with one firm.
I'm having 8 Points each-way Irish Cavalier at 40/1 1/4 123 with Hills and Bet365 (or obviously 50/1 1/5th 123 with Paddy Power a firm that seem to have given up laying bets).
NFL Regular season: Write-Ups and analysis by Neil Channing
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England Cricket Tour to South Africa (4 tests) (26th Dec - 27th Jan)
I have previewed the four test series, which begins on Boxing Day looking at outright and sub-markets. Coverage of the whole series is FREE
Sign up to Brodders' tips:
All Brodders bets since January 2014 are currently showing a ROI of +2.37% (over 1600 bets) (at 2nd November 2015)
Betting £10 a point would be showing a profit of +£4787
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Bookmaker reviews and advice
Getting the best price available is very important for all those who take their betting seriously.
Please open an account with all those bookmakers on the page on this link that you do not already have an account with using the links provided.
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
£10 per point on every recommended bet since launch in Feb 2013 would be winning £11,291 (as at 2nd November 2015)
All bets have an ROI +2.48% and Horse Racing has an ROI +6.35%
There is also a Frequently Asked Questions Section
The Road to Riches: Weekend 19th-20th December
Coming Up this weekend
- Football, the Premier League continues with Monday night seeing one of the big games of the season, Arsenal v Manchester City. A new write up in 'Premier League Over/Under 2.5 Goal Analysis' has been published. Read it here
- NFL Week 15. Sign up for week 15 coverage here
- Racing, national hunt at Ascot, Haydock Park and Newcastle and on the all-weather at Lingfield Park
- Rugby Union European Champions Cup Pool matches continue, the reverse fixtures from last weekend.
PDC World Darts Championship (Dec 17th 2015 - Jan 3rd 2016)
Nigel Seeley is covering the PDC Darts World Championship for us. Access to the preview, to all the match analysis and details of all the bets that we are having is £50.
| £50 Sign up here | PDC World Darts Championship (Dec 17th 2015 - Jan 3rd 2016) |
Free Tips of the week by Neil Channing (3.35 Ascot The Ladbroke Hurdle)
I often find myself writing that the hardest race of a Saturday is easily the best betting race of the week and the one that offers the most value. Recently I haven't given too many winners in those races and some people might be asking that if these events are so great how come I don't back the winner every week. It's important to remember that these races are very competitive and we need to be careful of our staking but any time we get a chance to bet each-way with five places on a handicap of 16-24 runners we are definitely getting massive value on the place bet and that means we can very happily take slightly under the exchange win price for our selections. To counter the variance we can easily bet several selections in each race and we can be confident we will have good bets. None of this makes betting the winner easy.
I'm having two each-way bets in the Ladbroke Hurdle at Ascot. There are 21 runners here and several firms offer 5 places on each-way bets. Two stables I really like are Dan Skelton and Harry Fry, both of whom worked as assistants to the great Paul Nicholls. Last year I felt that Harry was suffering a little possibly with a virus issue and I have been betting a lot of his horses this year on the basis that they may well be well handicapped now and they could be under bet. He has done really well in recent weeks though so perhaps the market is now catching up. He has favourite Jolly's Cracked it here and this one ran 3rd here on his debut when perhaps not at his absolute peak. I think he'll be ready for this, he se, the stable are flying and I love the chance of him being in the frame.
Dan Skelton's horses have tended to go off fairly short but he has two here and the bigger price makes Hurricane Hollow more attractive. Bridget Andrew rides and not only is she excellent but she also takes a nice few pounds off. The horse would not want really soft ground but he'll love the drop down in trip.
I'm having 6 Points each-way Jolly's Cracked It 1/4 12345 at 5/1 with Betfair Sportsbook (and obviously at 11/2 12345 with Sky Bet).
I'm having 7 Points each-way Hurricane Hollow 1/4 12345 at 16/1 with Sky Bet and Betfair Sportsbook.
Euro 2016 draw
The Euro 2016 draw took place last weekend Saturday evening for the tournament in France starts 10th June.
The format of competition, expanded to 24 teams, sees six groups of four, each seeded into four pots, The top two in each group and four best third placed teams qualify for an extra knockout round, the last 16. meaning only eight teams are eliminated in the group stages.
The groups drawn were as follows:
Group A: France, Albania, Romania, Switzerland.
Group B: England, Wales, Slovakia, Russia.
Group C: Germany, Northern Ireland, Poland, Ukraine.
Group D: Spain, Turkey, Czech Republic, Croatia.
Group E: Belgium, Republic of Ireland, Sweden, Italy.
Group F: Portugal, Iceland, Hungary, Austria.
The opening game sees France play Romania on the 10th June. Wales, in their first finals in 58 years, drew England (Lens 16th June) and Northern Ireland were placed in a tough group with Germany and Poland.
Due to the competition format, simulations in the following report
http://www.scribd.com/doc/290626039/EURO-2016-The-Group-E-effect
have shown that teams from Group E have an approximately 28% lower chance of reaching the final than teams from group A.
With placings for the last sixteen already decided, this is because according to the report linked above
“1. The winners of group A, B, C and D get to face third-placed teams, when the winners of group E and F move on to face runner-ups (A clear disadvantage)
2. The runner-ups of group A, B, C and F get to face other runner-ups, when the runner-ups of group D and E move on to face winners (A clear disadvantage).
3. This would in theory mean that teams that qualify from Group E already have a lower probability of reaching the quarter-final just by getting drawn into group E. For group D and F this means that they will have a higher probability than the teams from group E, but a lower probability than the ones from group A, B or C”
The best odds available outright at the time of writing, six months in advance of the event, are as follows
Germany 100-30 (generally available)
France 7-2 (Betfair Sportsbook)
Spain 11-2 (generally available)
Belgium 12-1 (generally available)
England 12-1 (generally available)
Italy 20-1 (Bet365)
Portugal 20-1 (Coral)
Croatia 33-1 (Bet365)
Austria 40-1 (generally available)
Switzerland 66-1 (BetVictor)
Poland 80-1 (skybet)
France, with one of the softer looking groups and as hosts went joint favourites must after the draw whilst Group E is a very tough draw for all sides, and in addition the format penalises Group E teams and this does not bode well for two teams in the top six of the betting, Belgium and Italy. England, drawn into Group B and the slightly easier top half of the draw were 14-1 and have come into a couple of pointsin the week since the draw
In the group betting, three of the six groups have odds-on favourites, A: France 1/2 C Germany 1/2 and D Spain 4/6. Favourites for the other groups are B England 11/10 E Belgium 13/10, reflecting the draw against the top second seed Italy and F Portugal 6/5, probably the weakest top seed
Please look out for tournament coverage from the Betting Emporium team both ante-post and during the tournament next summer.
NFL Regular season: Write-Ups and analysis by Neil Channing
| NFL 2015 - Week 15 (19th-21st December) | £25 Sign Up Here |
| NFL 2015 - Thursday Night Games - FREE Write Ups | Free Access Here |
| NFL 2015/16 Season (Ante Post, Outrights and Specials) | Free Access Here |
Sign up to Brodders' tips:
All Brodders bets since January 2014 are currently showing a ROI of +2.37% (over 1600 bets) (at 2nd November 2015)
Betting £10 a point would be showing a profit of +£4787
Subscription to Brodders' write ups, analysis and bets is £50 a month. You can join at any time
Subscribe here
Bookmaker reviews and advice
Getting the best price available is very important for all those who take their betting seriously.
Please open an account with all those bookmakers on the page on this link that you do not already have an account with using the links provided.
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
£10 per point on every recommended bet since launch in Feb 2013 would be winning £11,291 (as at 2nd November 2015)
All bets have an ROI +2.48% and Horse Racing has an ROI +6.35%
There is also a Frequently Asked Questions Section
The Road to Riches: Weekend 12th-13th December
Coming Up this weekend
- Football, the Premier League continues. A new write up in 'Premier League Over/Under 2.5 Goal Analysis' has been published. Read it here
- NFL Week 14. Sign up for week 14 coverage here
- Racing, national hunt at Cheltenham, Doncaster and Lingfield Park and on the all-weather at Southwell and Wolverhampton.
- Golf, USPGA Tour: Franklin Templeton Shootout at Tiburon GC in Naples, Florida.
- Rugby Union European Champions Cup Pool matches resume
PDC World Darts Championship (Dec 17th 2015 - Jan 3rd 2016)
Nigel Seeley will be covering the PDC Darts World Championship for us. His outright preview will be available on Monday 14th December. Access to the preview, to all the match analysis and details of all the bets that we are having is £50.
Nigel has given this column a free tip in advance of the package to whet our appetitite for the Championship as follows:
| £50 Sign up here | PDC World Darts Championship (Dec 17th 2015 - Jan 3rd 2016) |
Free Tip of the week
European Champions Cup Rugby Pool 4 Munster v Leicester (Saturday 7.45pm)
Saturday’s game (7.45pm BT Sport) sees the two unbeaten teams at the top of Pool 4 play the first of two games in successive weekends that could decide the pool winners and automatic qualification. Munster are a very difficult side to beat at Thormond Park in Limerick (they’ve won 62 of their 66 previous European fixtures there), traditionally playing a primarily forward orientated game roared on by a passionate crowd. Munster aren’t quite the side of their glory European days a decade or so ago but are justifiably favourites to win.
Injuries to Peter O’Mahoney and Tommy O’Donnell have removed an experienced hard edge from the Munster line up, and Ireland scrum half Conor Murray would be a loss if he doesn’t make it either. They do though have a great game manager and goal-kicker in Ian Keatley who will look to control the game through territory. Outside any or all of Earls, Salli and Zebo are game winners though this is probably not the night where they will see a lot of ball.
Leicester are a side transitioning fast (five wins out of six in the Aviva Premiership so far this season, and two out of two wins in Europe) under new head coach Aaron Mauger to a 15 man game, with quick ball most notably via the recruitment of open-side Brendan O’Connor, newly England qualified who has been impressive in securing turnovers since his recent debut. Conditions may be against them playing expansively here, and it might be a bit early in their transformation to pull off the upset in Ireland.
This should be a close game though particularly with forecasts suggesting rain is almost certain on Saturday evening. I would be surprised if there was more than a score in the final result and for the loser, a losing bonus point is a realistic target (1 losing bonus point for losing a match by seven points or fewer ).It should be a game that comes down to penalties and field position with any forward dominance crucial.
On the handicap Munster are 4 point favourites. The bet I like is in the winning margin betting market.
8 points Munster 13/8 with Betfair Sportsbook to win by 1-10 points
(4/1 1-5 points William hill or BetfairSportsbook is a higher priced alternative)
The Foxes flying high.
The early season form of Leicester City has been one of the most entertaining features of the Premier League season. Having been bottom of the table last season at this stage, they have risen to be top exactly a year later and across the two seasons since April 4th are on a run of only two defeats in 23 games and 1 in 15 this season.
The roots of the current success lie in Milan Mandarić selling the club to to a Thai-led consortium named Asian Football Investments (AFI) fronted by King Power Group's Vichai Raksriaksorn and since that time AFI have invested over £150m in the club, writing off debts, buying the stadium, upgrading training facilities, a European wide scouting network, a sports science operation and of course into the playing squad. Mistakes have been made along the way, notably in the appointments of Paolo Sousa and Sven-Goran Erikkson in the early days of their ownership but the last six months have seen the club prosper.
The owners have shown some judgement too. When Nigel Pearson was shown the door after events on a summer tour, they appointed Claudio Ranieri, a choice that looked eccentric and led to the club appearing on many a pre-season relegation prediction list.
Ranieri is an avuncular figure but tactically more astute than many would have realised. In his early days at the club he met with the players who told him that team spirit was a key factor in their late season form that saw them avoid relegation comfortably. Subsequently, in contrast to his reputation, he tinkered very little. He kept Pearson’s back room staff intact and his summer signings followed the recommendations of the scouting team.
On the field the highest profile successes have been Jamie Vardy, with 14 goals in 15 games and Riyad Mahrez with 10 goals and six assists but the team is set up to play to their strengths. The only team in the league to score in every one of their league games so far this season, they only average 44% possession per league game. The emphasis instead is firmly on counter-attacking, using width and pace to transition quickly from pressing and winning the ball into the final third. It is uncomplicated and direct. The result is that the team are the division’s top scorers and Vardy and Mahrez alone have more scored more goals than 14 teams in the division. With Vardy and Mahrez converting chances the side can capitalise on a phenomenal team and work ethic epitomised by the likes of Kante and Drinkwater who in large part are responsible for the team having the most interceptions in the league.
Mahrez is perhaps the prime example of the club’s competitiveness in scouting, under Assistant Manager Steve Walsh, the former Chelsea chief scout who worked with Ranieri, Mourinho and Villa Boas a decade ago. Mahrez was signed as a 22 year old from French second division club Le Havre for only €500,000.
Of course there are many challenges ahead. A quirk of the fixtures computer has seen them play a succession of bottom half teams through to the end of November. Leicester's next 11 league games include Man City (twice), Liverpool (twice), Chelsea (h), Spurs (a), Everton (a) and Arsenal (a). Team rotation has been minimal, with hardly any injuries suffered. For example summer signing from Napoli Swiss national captain Gokhan Inler has hardly featured with the form and fitness of the midfielders ahead of him. In addition the January transfer window beckons and Leicester’s players will be in demand.
So where realistically can the club finish this season? In part the club has been helped because their form has coincided with a poor season to date from Chelsea and inconsistency from many of the other usual contenders which has given the season a somewhat unpredictable feel. A top 4 finish appears optimistic but a top 6 - top 8 finish appears realistic, which would represent substantial progress.
Over and above the specifics of Leicester’s performance though, the current season is showing more competitive balance in the Premier League which can only be a good thing for the long term health of the league. Notwithstanding the financial disparities that have built up over time in a league with a huge a TV deal that rewards success, overseas owners and big differences in wage bills across the division this season has shown more than any in the last five years that teams not normally associated with the top six can compete with the big boys
This is in large part because teams like Stoke, Leicester, Southampton and Crystal Palace can use their funding advantage relative to many European leagues to attract talent that five years ago wouldn’t be seen in the Premier League outside the big teams. An example of this was seen only last weekend when the Stoke front three of Bojan (ex Barcelona), Shaqiri (ex Bayern and Inter) and Arnautovic (ex Werder Bremen) tore into Manchester City and helped their side to a deserved win. While the top six teams have their own issues, many of the chasing pack are stronger teams than previously, hence the unpredictability of results and unusual betting markets.
For example on Monday night Leicester play Chelsea. Depending on the weekend's results this could see a team top of the table (12/5 for the match) an underdog to a team in the relegation zone at home (7/5 for the match)....Interesting times.
NFL Regular season: Write-Ups and analysis by Neil Channing
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Sign up to Brodders' tips:
All Brodders bets since January 2014 are currently showing a ROI of +2.37% (over 1600 bets) (at 2nd November 2015)
Betting £10 a point would be showing a profit of +£4787
Subscription to Brodders' write ups, analysis and bets is £50 a month. You can join at any time
Subscribe here
Bookmaker reviews and advice
Getting the best price available is very important for all those who take their betting seriously.
Please open an account with all those bookmakers on the page on this link that you do not already have an account with using the links provided.
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
£10 per point on every recommended bet since launch in Feb 2013 would be winning £11,291 (as at 2nd November 2015)
All bets have an ROI +2.48% and Horse Racing has an ROI +6.35%
There is also a Frequently Asked Questions Section
The Road to Riches: Weekend 5th-6th December
Coming Up this weekend
- Football, the Premier League continues and it is the second round of the FA Cup. A new write up in 'Premier League Over/Under 2.5 Goal Analysis' has been published. Read it here
- NFL Week Thirteen. Sign up for week Thirteen coverage here
- Racing, national hunt at Aintree, Chepstow, Sandown Park and Wetherby and on the all weather at Wolverhampton.- Golf, European Tour: Nedbank Golf Challenge in Sun City,South Africa.and European Tour: Australian PGA Championship on the Gold Coast in, Queensland. On the USPGA Tour: Hero World Challenge, in New Providence, Bahamas.
i-Pools
Free Tip of the week
This Sunday at 9.25pm on Sky Sports 2 the last undefeated team in this NFL season, the Carolina Panthers, visit their NFC South divisional rivals the New Orleans Saints.
According to Vegas sportsbooks, the Saints have never closed as larger than a 6-point dog at home. They're currently +7 for Sunday's game against Carolina. Leaving point spreads and totals to Neil Channing’s weekly write-up, I‘ll once again focus on player sub-markets which for this game look clear.
The Saints are ranked 31st of 32 NFL teams on defense and have fired their defensive co-ordinator Rob Ryan. The Panthers rank 2nd in the league on defense giving up over 60 yards a game less than the Saints in the passing game through their first 11 games of this season. In the markets the Panthers have a high team over/under of 28 points for this game within total points quotes of +/- 50.
I am looking at the Panthers skill position players in this game’s sub-markets. Quarterbacks and tight ends against the 2015 Saints are on my betting short-list every week, but here both Panthers players are top options regardless of opponent: Cam Newton, a winner for this column a few weeks ago and Greg Olsen the Panthers top receiving option.
Since entering the league in 2011, only Marshawn Lynch has more rushing touchdowns inside the 5-yard line than Cam Newton's 27. The Saints have allowed 488 rushing yards over their past three games Tennessee, Washington and Houston, all teams that average less than 100 yards per game on the ground for the season.
In his past two games against the Saints, Greg Olsen has 18 receptions for 206 yards and three touchdowns. New Orleans allows 78.2 receiving yards to tight ends per game this season, the second most in the league. The Saints allow 9.8 yards per pass attempt to opposing passers, the highest in the league.
What makes this game so attractive is not only the match-up on the one side of the ball mentioned above but also that Carolina not only is extremely stout against the run (have held opposing Running backs to 222 yards & 1 Touchdown on 82 carries over their last five games) but is only allowing a touchdown pass once every 34 pass attempts, the second best in the league. Meanwhile Saints Quarterback Drew Brees has only thrown a touchdown once every 20 pass attempts this season, his worst total since 2007. So we have a more than reasonable prospect of Carolina scoring first.
I will be looking at Newton and Olsen in all relevant markets for touchdowns and over/under rushing/passing and receiving yards. Early quotes have both odds-on in the anytime touchdown scorer market and I am going to pair the two in the first touchdown scorer market:
5 points Cam Newton first touchdown scorer 7-1 Bet365
5 points Greg Olsen first touchdown scorer 7-1 Bet365 (15-2 Paddy Power)
More firms will offer prices over the weekend.
Done and Dusted
At the end of October I wrote in this column “The racing industry bites back” highlighting that bookmakers who do not pay levy on their digital operations will be barred from taking out new sponsorship deals on most races and festivals under new rules to be introduced by British racing.
The aim of the “authorised betting partners” (ABP) scheme is to establish the principle that offshore betting operations, which evade the legal requirement to pay the racing Levy, need to make a contribution to the sport first and then plan their marketing spend, including sponsorship, after that. Five weeks since the introduction of ABP the situation has escalated.
The Cheltenham Gold Cup and the Group One Sprint Cup at Haydock are seeking sponsors after Betfred was dropped by Jockey Club Racecourses because the firm is not an ABP. Betfair, which is an ABP, has replaced 888Sport, which is not, as sponsor of the Tingle Creek Chase at Sandown. Last week in the Racing Post sources at Ladbrokes and Paddy Power were suggesting they too might not sponsor the world hurdle and Paddy Power Gold Cp respectively.
“There is no shortage of sports with broad appeal for sponsors like us who are eager to work with bookmakers to secure mutual benefits.” said a Ladbrokes spokesman.
Meanwhile Fred Done of Betfred, speaking for the first time since the news about the Gold Cup sponsorship broke last weekend, said he is "livid" at the way he has been treated, pointing out his firm has put £150 million directly into the sport over the last four years.
"Sometimes you have to stand up for your principles and that's what this is about.I can spend my money anywhere I want, with good value and people I want to spend it with.: "I believe we've been very badly treated. High-handed is a phrase I would use. I don't know how racing is going to get out of this one. It's going to have to be a massive u-turn on their part.I think relations between the betting industry and racing are worse than they've ever been. There's no trust."
Done said Betfred had made direct payments to racing of £150m over the last four years, through an estimated £14m per year in media rights, £46,105,000 in levy and £49,857,000 in other payments, including sponsorship. In the year to the end of September the company spent £7m in sponsorship and will have backed 670 races in 2015.
"Who else is putting all this money into racing?," Done said. "What more can I do? And then I get treated like this, you're not an authorised betting partner.I believe they've got an exaggerated view of what they're going to get from offshore bookmakers. We'll pay it, but at the right rate, and this isn't the right rate. They've made the wrong decision on it."
Bookmakers who do not pay anything to racing from their offshore revenue enjoy a commercial advantage over those firms that do. The slice of their gross profits that they keep can be spent on marketing, to lure punters away from their competitors, or simply fed into their margins to keep their odds competitive, or fund eye-catching “special offers” to buy new accounts.
Sponsorship money is a very welcome source of income for racecourses of all sizes. What the ABP initiative seems to understand, though, is the futility of a short-term gain if it undermines the long-term financial viability of racing as a whole. It would be better to run races unsponsored if necessary – though there is a very slim risk of that at a marquee track such as Cheltenham.
There is also a potential first-mover advantage in this situation that could work to racing’s advantage. As Betfair’s swift acquisition of the Tingle Creek sponsorship showed, ABP status puts a betting firm in a strong position to pick up valuable contracts from its rivals with a first mover advantage to lock some of their competition out of some prime sponsorships for years to come.
The (possible) availability of the Grand National sponsorship is also interesting and would be immensely attractive to a big bookmaker and as such a big carrot to dangle in front of dithering executives as they weigh up the pros and cons of ABP status. It is all part of the process of building up clear positives for ABP status, and quantifiable negatives for bookmakers that refuse to pay their fair share, and despite the talk of plugs being pulled, the racing side seems to be playing its hand quite well at the moment.
This appears to have been confirmed in the last 48 hours with news that Betfair becomes the first ‘Authorised Betting Partner’ of British Racing. The BHA's Nick Rust said “we welcome the enlightened approach taken by Betfair. They clearly value our sport”. Two more firms - bet365 and 32Red - have also been granted authorised betting partner status in deals thought to span three years, with the sums raised expected to at least match the amount six companies offered on a voluntary basis during the recent levy negotiations.
NFL Regular season: Write-Us and analysis by Neil Channing
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Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
£10 per point on every recommended bet since launch in Feb 2013 would be winning £11,291 (as at 2nd November 2015)
All bets have an ROI +2.48% and Horse Racing has an ROI +6.35%
There is also a Frequently Asked Questions Section
The Road to Riches: Weekend 28th-29th November
Coming Up this weekend
- Football, the Premier League including first v second, Leicester City v Manchester United. A new write up in 'Premier League Over/Under 2.5 Goal Analysis' has been published. Read it here
- NFL Week Twelve. Sign up for week Twelve coverage here
- Racing, national hunt at Newbury including the Hennessey Gold Cup (see free tip below), Bangor-on-dee, Doncaster and Newcastle and on the all-weather at Wolverhampton.- Golf, on the European Tour: Alfred Dunhill Championship in South Africa.
-Tennis, the Davis Cup Final: Belgium v Great Britain at the Flanders Expo, Ghent, Belgium.
- Formula One, the final race of the 2015 season the Abu Dhabi Grand Prix
i-Pools
Free bet from Neil Channing
The Hennessey Gold Cup (Newbury 3pm)
The Hennessey is a great race to have a bet on. There are 17-runners and with all of them having this as their target for weeks and no surprises that the ground is soft I'm fairly sure we'll get 16+ runners which means at 1/4 1234 we are getting great value on the place part of most each-way bets. If anyone goes 12345 then it's incredible value.
All we need to do then is find something that will stay the extended 3m2f and that won't mind a proper slog in the mud. It also helps if they have a little class.
I've discounted a bunch of these as being either out of form, not good enough, doubtful stayers, not great on the ground or poorly handicapped. Everything over 20/1 was easy enough to fit into one of those categories so I'll focus on the others.
Theatre Guide may not really get home on this soft ground and he isn't well handicapped so he gets a red line through his name. It'll be a long year for The Druid's Nephew if it's 100% for this and the Grand National and Neil Mulholland says it's fresher this year. The drift in it's price is making me think it's not 100% ready here.
Houblon Des Obeaux was a surprise 2nd in this race last year and he'll like the ground and the slog plus his stable is in blinding form. I just don't really fancy betting him each-way after a poor prep run in a race as hot as this. Fingal Bay wouldn't totally surprise me, he'll like the ground and is a real stayer plus he has a good jockey on but I'm not sure it's a great price for one who doesn't always win when you think he might. Smad Place has been really popular but I can't have him at all at these prices. There is a good chance he'll hate the ground and he doesn't really want to go this far.
When the weights went up it was good for If In Doubt as he gets to be ridden by Barry Geraghty. There is no way I can bet him each-way though as he must be quite likely to fall. If he did get round he'd have a good shout though. The weights going up can't really have helped the favourite Saphir Du Rheu and much as I like this horse there is no way I'm taking 4/1 for him to hump nearly twelve stone round here. May not be as battle hardened as some of these.
Bob's Worth strikes me as a ridiculous price. That race he won here just proved he has four legs and a tail. It was over hurdles, the favourite ran poorly and the other fancied one fell while his stablemate Simonsig had been off years. Clearly the former Gold Cup winner was a great horse but to be 6/1 for this I'd really want to know he still is.
I'm left with two and I'm betting them both.
Ned Stark comes into the handicap with Coneygree out and Alan King has said he has strengthened up well and is a better horse this year. He's a young improver getting loads of weight, he's won round here and he likes soft ground. Looks very solid at the prices. Ought to stay but not guaranteed.
The Young Master has been aimed at this. He's better in with Saphir du Rheu for their potter round Carlisle, he ought to get a soft lead up front, he has a great trainer and he has won over further and won on heavy. The horse was so disappointing at the Festival this year but I'm going to forgive him and I still think he is a great horse.
I'm having 7 Points each-way Ned Stark at 11/1 1/4 1234 with Paddy Power and Betfair Sportsbook (would take 10/1).
I'm having 8 Points each-way The Young Master at 11/1 1/4 1234 with Hills (happily take 10/1).
The importance of Turnovers in NFL betting
The other week, as I was watching an NFL team I had backed on the spread lose conceding 4 more turnovers (interceptions, fumbles) than their opponents I remembered that turnovers are a crucial component of understanding betting on the NFL. The Week after, the same team won the turnover battle and won outright away from home as seven point underdogs. Only this week, on one of the Thanksgiving games, the Cowboys were -3 on turnovers and effectively had no shot of beating the Panthers as a result. Later that evening the Packers were -2 on turnovers against the Bears as 8 point favourites, and lost. On the season the 3-8 Cowboys are an incredible -12 on turnovers which, as well as the key injuries, goes a long way to explain why a talented roster is underperforming expectations.
Taking data from 2012-2014 across the NFL season, if a team has just one more turnover than the other team over the course of a game, it will win 69.6% of the time, compared to home teams winning 57.2% of the time. Winning percentage only increases as the turnover differential mounts up with a turnover differential of +3 or more in a game meaning teams win 90.7% of the time over the three year sample.
Some of a team’s turnover differential is due to talent —Aaron Rodgers throwing very few interceptions and JJ Watt strip-sacking the quarterback for example and some is due to luck, because things like this happen. How much is due to luck and how much due to skill is a source of much debate.
This is category in NFL statistics and betting that offers a troublesome combination of relatively low predictability but very high impact. If there’s “a mystery to solve” with a final score that doesn’t make sense based on the numbers you saw in total yardage in the game it’s likely because the superior team in that data had a turnover debacle. It’s arguably the driving randomising force that affects win rates in NFL betting.
Turnovers have befuddled the NFL analytics industry for years. There’s still not a consensus as to how turnovers should be handled. One extreme says that turnovers are so close to being random that you should just treat them that way. Assume regression to the mean is coming for any team that temporarily has an imbalance.The other extreme says that turnover tendencies are far from random, and you should expect “turnover prone” offenses to continue making mistakes while “turnover forcing” defenses will continue to earn high impact takeaways.
One analyst claims that fumbles are 90% random. A model that uses turnovers will accurately describe what has happened already but doesn’t project well into the future. In a similar fashion, the recently defunct Grantland found that turnovers forced by a defense were 98% random. Hence teams that enjoy a large turnover margin are getting lucky and shouldn’t expect this luck to continue
If you’re new to the NFL, pro teams try to limit themselves to 0-1 turnovers per game. Anything at 2 or more is a disappointment, with 3 or more being really bad news. There are so many personnel moves between each season with head coaches and quarterbacks that it’s best to start fresh each year with your assessments. Do start with an assumption that veteran quarterbacks will be more efficient than relative newcomers, unless those newcomers are there mostly to hand off, throw short passes, or run with the ball themselves.
While the ability to handicap turnovers can be argued, it's common knowledge that the value of a turnover is roughly 4 points. Therefore if Team A wins a game 13-9 with a one turnover advantage, you can make a side note that the teams played even on the scoreboard when you back out the turnover edge. This gives you two of many different ways to look at the game in hindsight.
What I find very valuable is to keep records of how teams do when they lose the turnover battle, paying special attention to when they are able to cover games despite having a turnover disadvantage. That tells me the team may be on the rise and I should look for a way to play that squad in the future, perhaps in ante-post betting for the next season if, as with the Cowboys example above for next season, the trend in turnovers persists for most of a season.
NFL Regular season: Write-Us and analysis by Neil Channing
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All Brodders bets since January 2014 are currently showing a ROI of +2.37% (over 1600 bets) (at 2nd November 2015)
Betting £10 a point would be showing a profit of +£4787
Subscription to Brodders' write ups, analysis and bets is £50 a month. You can join at any timeSubscribe here
Bookmaker reviews and advice
Getting the best price available is very important for all those who take their betting seriously.
Please open an account with all those bookmakers on the page on this link that you do not already have an account with using the links provided.
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
£10 per point on every recommended bet since launch in Feb 2013 would be winning £11,291 (as at 2nd November 2015)
All bets have an ROI +2.48% and Horse Racing has an ROI +6.35%
There is also a Frequently Asked Questions Section
