Weekly Articles "Road to Riches" by Rich 'Tighty' Prew
The Road to Riches Weekend of 6th-7th February
- Football, a full Premier league weekend including Manchester Cty v Leicester City on Saturday lunchtime. A Premier League Statistical Analysis write up has been published here
- NFL, Superbowl 50 from Santa Clara, California, the Denver Broncos v the Carolina Panthers
- Rugby Union, the opening weekend of the 2016 Six Nations.
- Racing, national hunt meetings at Sandown, Wetherby and Ffos Las and on the all weather at Lingfield
- Tennis, ATP Open Sud de France in Montpellier, ATP Garanti Koza Sofia Open and ATP Ecuador Open Quito. Fed Cup World Group 1st Round ties.
- Golf, USPGA Tour: Waste Management Phoenix Open at TPC Scottsdale in Arizona. European Tour: Omega Dubai Desert Classic, Emirates GC, Dubai.
- Cricket, the second ODI between South Africa and England in Port Elizabeth
NFL - Super Bowl XLX (inc the prop bets)
Superbowl 50, Carolina Panthers v Denver Broncos is on February 7th
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(If you subscribed to the playoffs the Super Bowl is included)
This is one of the best situations of the whole year for finding excellent value and bookmaker mistakes.
NFL 2014 Superbowl and Playoffs results: 231 points bet, 31.7 points profit, +13.72% ROI
NFL 2015 Superbowl and Playoffs results: 524 points bet, 49.51 points profit, +9.45% ROI
Premier League Darts (Feb 4th - May 19th 2016)
Weekly coverage by Nigel Seeley for the 2016 Premier League Darts.
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Six Nations Rugby Package (6th February - 19th March 2016)
Following a successful Rugby World Cup package (+28.3% ROI), Six Nations. An outright preview and previews of each game on the weekend opening weekend are available now
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Free Tip South Africa v England Second ODI Cricket 6th February
In the first game of the five match series in Bloemfontein on Wednesday England went 1-0 up scoring 399 then ahead on Duckworth-Lewis when the rain came midway through the second innings.
On Saturday (8am GMT start) the second game takes place in the coastal town of Port Elizabeth In terms of the outright market for this second game, South Africa 10/11 England Evens sees a shortening of the England price after their first game victory.
Unlike the first game this is not a day-nighter. In day-night ODIs outside the UK there is often a big advantage to winning the toss and batting, putting up a score and then defending a total under lights. The Port Elizabeth match is a day-only game.
England’s approach to ODIs is much changed. Only a year ago the side was eliminated from the group stages of the World Cup in Australasia, followed by a disappointing result on the tour of the West Indies. In this format England had failed to move with the times, new regulations ((two power-plays, only four fielders outside the inner ring for the first forty overs) demanded a more aggressive batting approach than the way England had set up their ODI innings for decades, to accumulate in the early overs and then accelerate at the end.
This changed with the appointment of a new coach in the summer and a new team selection policy going for youth from the swathe of talented players in domestic cricket in the ODI and T20 formats. Results since have been encouraging, losing 3-2 to the number one ranked Australians at the end of the Ashes tour and then winning against Pakistan 3-1 at the end of the UAE tour.
Specifically since the beginning of last summer England have four scores of 350+ and one of over 400. England reached 350 twice in their first 645 ODIs. They have reached it 5 times in 15 ODIs since then. In the first game of this series, England’s 399 was their highest ever away ODI score and was the first time 8 different batsmen have hit a six in an ODI innings. The England ODI team has rebuilt quickly, around a much younger core that is likely to be competitive in every series for the foreseeable future.
Port Elizabeth’s ground is within sight of the Ocean and traditionally offers support for swing bowlers, especially with the new ball. They have been four ODI’s at the ground since 2010, against varied opposition (West Indies, Australia, India and Pakistan) and in those games only 13 of the 53 wickets have fallen to spinners. Steyn has a 6 for and Morkel a 4 for opening the bowling in those games In the outright market. There is not as much toss bias as a day-nighter as both teams will be bowling in identical conditions.
England’s bowling attack in the first ODI saw Willey and Topley take the new ball, Jordan at first change, Rashid and Ali for the middle overs and Stokes as the sixth bowler. Bloemfontein produced blameless batting conditions with little help for the quicks, and Ali took 3 of the 5 South African wickets to fall.
A key question for the Port Elizabeth game will be team selection and rotation. There is Broad to come back in, and possibly Woakes too and Jordan the most vulnerable. What I think we know is that David Willey will take the new ball and herein lies the opportunity. Willey knocked over Hashim Amla early in Bloemfontein and bowled 5 overs up top. He would have then bowled another two in the second power-play and then three at the end of the innings.
At Port Elizabeth having the swinging new ball is an advantage. He will usually bowl the rest of his overs at a time when batsmen are attacking and often against tail-enders. He has become one of the England’s key options at the “death” with his ability to vary pace and bowl yorkers.
So far in a fledgling England career that saw him began well in T20s then move into the ODI side he has 19 wickets in 11 50 over games. Hs strike rate (26) and economy (5.5 runs an over) is right up there in this era of high scores and batsmen friendly regulations.
The top England bowler sub-market is as follows:
Broad 3/1
Rashid 7/2
Willey 7/2
Woakes 4/1
Topley 4/1
Ali 9/2
Jordan 5/1
Stokes 6/1
Two of these players will miss out. Narrowing it down, lets exclude the spinners here, ignore Jordan and Woakes as being inconsistent wicket-takers and suggest that Stokes might not bowl ten overs. That leaves us Broad, Topley and Willey. At the prices the presence of Broad in the market and probably the team creates an opportunity to back Willey, bowling at both ends of the innings in conditions that will suit.
6 points David Willey Top England bowler second ODI 7/2 BetVictor or Ladbrokes
One Direction?
Either side of Trials weekend in the run up to the 2016 Cheltenham Festival much attention has been paid to the dominance of the Willie Mullins yard in National Hunt racing. For the upcoming festival, ante post markets have Mullins at 1/11 to be top Cheltenham trainer, and only 7/4 to train more than 10 winners at the festival. Leading Mullins owner Rich Ricci is just 6/4 to have five or more winners. On Thursday, entries for the next declaration stage were announced with for example Mullins having 18 of 64 entries for the Supreme and 22 of 78 entries for the Neptune. This within the context of a 26% decline in entries for all the novice events at this stage compared to 2015.
Even after Djakadam’s fall over trials weekend, Mullins has ten festival favourites, following on from his record performance of eight winners at the 2015 festival:
- MIN - Supreme
- DOUVAN - Arkle Trophy
- FAUGHEEN - Champion Hurdle
- ANNIE POWER - Mares' Hurdle
- BLACK HERCULES - National Hunt Chase
- BELLSHILL - Neptune
- UN DE SCEAUX - Champion Chase
- KILLULTAGH VIC - JLT Novices' Chase
- UP FOR REVIEW - Albert Bartlett
- LIMINI - Mares' Novice Hurdle
- VAUTOUR - Ryanair Chase and the Cheltenham Gold Cup
Whether this is a good or bad thing or even matters has been a subject of much debate. Perhaps there was a similar debate in the eras of Michael Dickinson and Martin Pipe too.
What the sport has currently is a combination of occurrences that have tilted the balance in favour of one yard. Not only does Mullins have the patronage of one of the most passionate and wealthy owners Rich Ricci but as well as Ricci having deep pockets horses like Min have shown the skill of Mullins’ bloodstock agents in acquiring cheaper horses too. In addition Ruby Walsh described recently as 'a great jockey riding great horses' is 4/11 to be Festival top jockey and only 5/4 to ride three or more winners on the Tuesday of the festival alone.
At the same time as the combination of resources and expertise in Mullins yard is producing so many prospects, the Paul Nicholls and Nicky Henderson yards are, by their high standards, in the doldrums so the top end of the sport appears to lack depth of competition. After 30 years at the top, the Henderson yard recently imported tonnes of Wexford sand to create a Mullins-style gallop in a sign that much like Nicholls and Hobbs deriving knowledge from looking at the Pipe yards fitness techniques a generation ago, Mullins is now seen as the benchmark within the training industry.
One of the consequences of this could be seen on the first day of Cheltenham when Min, Douvan, Faugheen and Annie Power/Vroum Vroum Mag race and potentially (after the near miss last year with Annie Power falling at the last when clear) a big swing for punters and bookmakers alike with big bets rolled up if the first few go in as markets expect. Already, the bookie PR accounts on social media are showing pictures of big Mullins accumulators, presumably in the hope of attracting more of the same and then getting one beat on the day.
One of the reasons they might be doing this is that the dominance of the Mullins stable has reportedly had a negative effect on betting turnover for the festival. When leading contenders such as Vautour and Annie Power are still to be confirmed for a particular race 'non-runner, no bet' markets are the only option. Several Mullins favourites are odds-on six weeks before the festival. Backing alternatives at the meeting last year was often costly and it could be similar this time round, and that makes for a very different Cheltenham Festival this year from some others where Championship races gave us 5/1 the field and punting puzzles to solve in addition to those found in the big field handicaps.
All the factors mentioned earlier, from financial resources to talent in the whole operation, have given us a temporary dominance of one team over the championship contests in ante-post markets. As we saw last year though, in a festival which in many races gave us a glimpse of what many expect to see again this year, the victory of Coneygree in the Gold Cup showed there is still scope for a smaller yard to disrupt the seemingly inevitable flow of big prizes back to County Carlow.
Meanwhile, back to this weekend, and Mullins had five of the 14 entries for Saturday's Scilly Isles Novices' Chase at Sandown with Black Hercules, McKinley, Outlander, Pleasant Company and Pont Alexandre to choose his participants from.
Brodders Football Analysis
We hope that you enjoyed all of Brodders analysis and write ups throughout January 2016. In total there were 57 bets at an average of just over 14 points each. They showed a profit of +156.89 points and a +ROI of 19.16%
If you had bet £10 a point throughout January 2016 you would have won £1568.90
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Euro & other Football by Brodders (monthly) |
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Brodders shows a long term proven profit on his Euro and other football selections. If you had bet £10 a point on every recommended bet since 2014 you would be winning £5366.50.
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Please open an account with all those bookmakers on the page on this link that you do not already have an account with using the links provided.
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
£10 per point on every recommended bet since launch in Feb 2013 would be winning £10,094.80 (as at 6th January 2016)
A £4000 bank (see FAQ re bank-roll requirements) betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £14,094.80 a 352% increase
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There is also a Frequently Asked Questions Section
The Road to Riches: Weekend of 30th-31st January
- Football, FA Cup fourth round weekend, and a Football league programme.
- Racing, national hunt meetings at Doncaster, Cheltenham and Uttoxeter, Lingfield on the all-weather
- Tennis, the final weekend of the Australian Open.
- Golf, European Tour: Commercial Bank Qatar Masters and USPGA Tour: Farmers Insurance Open, Torrey Pines GC in California
Premier League Darts (Feb 4th - May 19th 2016)
Weekly coverage by Nigel Seeley for the 2016 Premier League Darts.
The package costs £50. Sign Up here
Six Nations Rugby Package (6th February - 19th March 2016)
Following a successful Rugby World Cup package (+28.3% ROI) I will be covering the Rugby Six Nations, including an outright preview and each game weekend
The package costs £50. Sign Up here
NFL - Super Bowl XLX (inc the prop bets)
Superbowl 50, Carolina Panthers v Denver Broncos is on February 7th
The package costs £25. Sign up here
(If you subscribed to the playoffs the Super Bowl is included)
This is one of the best situations of the whole year for finding excellent value and bookmaker mistakes.
NFL 2014 Superbowl and Playoffs results: 231 points bet, 31.7 points profit, +13.72% ROI
NFL 2015 Superbowl and Playoffs results: 524 points bet, 49.51 points profit, +9.45% ROI
Free Tip by Neil Channing
I feel like I don't need to spend a lot of time telling you how great 16+ runner handicapsare as the four places make the place marketheavily +EV. Essentially, if you bet a horse at close to the Betfair SP then you'll be losing just a smidge on the win and getting a great deal on the place.
The SkyBet Chase (Doncaster 3.15pm) has sadly dropped to just 15-runners but the sponsors have decided to offer four places anyway and I'm hoping at least one other firm will follow them as a loss-leader which they sometimes do with these big Saturday races.
It is important to point out that with 15-runners and 1/4 1,2,3 I would certainly never bet each-way and only if a few more non-runners left us with 12 would I be tempted by two bets on one animal. Sky Bet may not lay us all but I believe they are keeping with the four places even if the race drops to 14-runners so there is great value there.
On paper the race is very competitive but I threw a bunch (it's OK horses can be described as bunches as they are WILD ANIMALS) out pretty easily. Emma Lavelle has had a terrible time with her stable in the last couple of years and they aren't solid each-way bets right now. La Reve definitely prefers going right-handed, Ziga Boy and Distime are out of the handicap and the former comes from a yard with a ringworm issue going roun. Holywell has a ton of weight and I almost never bet that stable, Le Mercurey is a novice and may not be brilliantly handicapped plus the Nicholls stable are not exactly flying. Buywise always makes a howler or two along the way and Aachen is as old as me.
I've left myself six to work with and most of them are probably Ok bets if you get the four places. If you like a different one from the two I've ended up with please don't let me put you off.
Double Ross stays this trip well, the stable are going Ok and he'll like the ground better than the last time at Aintree. Maybe a bit too much weight but a fair price.
Pass the Hat often has a little break, then a losing hurdles run and then a good chase run. Ran well over hurdles last time and could be interesting here but hasn't won for a long time.
No Planning will like going left handed on a flat track and soft ground. Solid enough but I can't bet them all.
Ikorodu Road is a decent price, likes it round here and at Newbury, another flat left-handed galloping track. Maybe up a bit much in class but a fair price.
I've settled with two and I'm hoping to get the four places. If for some reason I can't I'll bet them both win only.
Dolatulo likes the left handed, stays the trip well and likes the ground. I know the connections fancy him and I don't blame them.
Coologue is a young, promising chaser from a good stable who ran a good 2nd here last time on his first try at the trip. He ought to stay here and he could be really well handicapped.
Since I have been writing Betfred have gone four places here and although I'm not sure what happens with them if we fall to 14-runners I'm going to bet with them as they have the best prices.
I'm having 6 Points each-way Dolatulo at 11/1 1/4 1234 with Betfred (would take 10/1 1,2,3,4 Skybet or 14/1 win only).
I'm having 6 Points each-way Coologue at 10/1 1/4 1234 with Betfred (would take 9/1 1,2,3,4 Skybet or 12/1 win only).
Anglo-French domination of the European Champions Cup Rugby
Late last Sunday afternoon, the final games of the pool stages of this year's European Champions Rugby Cup (ERCC) were reaching a conclusion and frantic calculations were made as to which teams were set to qualify for the quarter-fnals in April. In Southern France, Clermont-Auvergne were heavily odds on to get the victory they needed at home to Bordeaux Begles whilst earlier in the week, in South West England Exeter CHiefs coach Rob Baxter had dismissed his sides chances of progressing from the Pool, so unlikely was the combination of circumstances that made it possible.
However with minutes to go in Clermont, the home side was losing 28-37 and Exeter were beating Ospreys with the latest in a series of scintillating performances from one of the fastest improving teams in the English game. At this point Clermont could ensure qualification for the quarters as one of the three best runners up if they secured a losing bonus point, and lost by less than seven points. Experienced international scrum-half Morgan Parra then inexplicably opted for a tap penalty. Once defended, the opportunity was lost and Clermont were out of the competition.
The quarter-final line up is as follows (seeded 1 to 8 based on group winners and points scored in the pools)
Saracens v Northampton
Wasps v Exeter
Racing92 v Toulon
Leicester v Stade Francais
The winners of the ties at Saracens and Wasps meet in the semi-finals so at least one English side is guaranteed to reach the final in Lyon at the end of the season. Leicester, group winners face a winnable quarter against Stade who they beat at home in the Pool before the daunting prospect of Racing at home or Toulon away in the semi-finals. Toulon lost out on winning the group on tie-breaker to Wasps, a a result of their 32-6 loss in Coventry last October.
With all eight quarter-finalists from England and France it is once again a concern that sides from Ireland (Munster and Leinster in a down phase), Wales (Ospreys came closest), Scotland (Glasgow regressed from their ERCC performances last year) and Italy (teams still uncompetitive) are absent from the knock-out stages reflecting the weaker squads that an imbalance of financial resources within the various Euriopean nations creates.
In terms of odds for the competition from here, markets currently look as follows:
Saracens 9/4
Racing 4/1
Toulon 9/2
Leicester 13/2
Wasps 12/1
Exeter 20/1
Stade 25/1
Northampton 28/1
Saracens, 8 wins from 9 in the Aviva Premiership and with an expensive squad packed with talent would be close to favouritism even if the draw had not broken so kindly for them with Racing and Toulon in the other half. The winners of Wasps/Exeter (a very tough call, but I might shade it to a full strength Exeter ) are the value alternative with the semi-final against Saracens (most likely) to be played on a neutral English ground. Each way terms of one third the odds to reach the final are standard in the current market
In the other half Racing are top of the French Top 14 and at home to the double defending champions Toulon. I would expect the winners of that quarter to reach the final. Whilst the most likely outcome is Saracens v one of the French sides, the draw does make that Exeter (or Wasps) price very tempting. All because of one failed tap penalty in Clermont.
Brodders Football Analysis
All Brodders bets since January 2014 are currently showing a ROI of +1.96% (over 1800 bets) (at 6th Jan 2016)
- Betting £10 a point would be showing a profit of +£4363.90
Make sure that you follow us on Twitter and have your Brodders email alerts ticked here so you don't miss out.
Getting the best price available is very important for all those who take their betting seriously.
Please open an account with all those bookmakers on the page on this link that you do not already have an account with using the links provided.
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
£10 per point on every recommended bet since launch in Feb 2013 would be winning £10,094.80 (as at 6th January 2016)
A £4000 bank (see FAQ re bank-roll requirements) betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £14,094.80 a 352% increase
All bets have an ROI +2.00% and Horse Racing has an ROI +6.20%
There is also a Frequently Asked Questions Section
The Road to Riches: Weekend 23rd-24th January
- Football, the Premier league programme includes Arsenal and Chelsea at the Emirates on Sunday.
Anyone following Brodders football this month betting £10 a point is winning £1916.10 with +ROI of 44.7% FREE for January, see here
A new write up in 'Premier League Over/Under 2.5 Goal Analysis' has been published. Read it here
- NFL After another exciting play-off weekend, this weekend sees the two Conference games to decide who will be in Superbowl 50. Sign up for play-off coverage here
- Racing, national hunt meetngs at Ascot, Haydock and Taunton on the all-weather at Lingfield
- Tennis, the middle weekend of the Australian Open in Melbourne.
- Golf, European Tour: Abu Dhabi HSBC Golf Championship and USPGA Tour: CareerBuilder Challenge in La Quinta, California
- Cricket, the fourth Test match between South Africa and England continues in Pretoria.
- Rugby Union, the final round of European Rugby Champions cup Pool matches
Australian Open Tennis Championships (Jan 18th-31st 2016)
The second week of the Australian Open starts on Monday. Nigel Seeley is covering the first Grand Slam Tennis event of the new year
Last year he showed +ROI 39.9% for this event
The cost of the package is £50, sign up here
Free Tip
This weekend sees the NFC Conference Championship between the top two seeds in the conference, the Arizona Cardinals visiting the Carolina Panthers. The Panthers are three point favourites in a game with a 47.5 total point line. Please see Neil Channing's play-off coverage here for analysis of the major game markets here.
Last weekend we were in with a decent shout of David Johnson first touchdown scorer when Arizona received the ball with a short field. Johnson received the ball in the run and the pass game several times as the Cardinals drove up the field, but didnt receive the scoring play, an excellent catch in the back of the end-zone.
This week I am going to return to the Carolina side of the ball, which has been featured on a couple of occasions in these free tips. In part this is because the Carolina offense is run-based and the major receiving threat is the Tight End Greg Olsen rather than one of the wide receivers. Over the 2015-16 regular season Carolina scored 19 rushing touchdowns, tied for the league's best. Of course what makes that possible is that in addition to running back Jonathan Stewart, quarterback Cam Newton is such a running threat and is used a lot near the goal-line too. Over the season Newton has 10 rushing touchdowns, Stewart 6.
What was notable during the Cardinals win over the Packers was how much the run defense struggled. Over the regular season the Cardinals mranked 6th, allowing 91 yards per game on the ground. Against the Packers the Cardinals allowed 135 yards on 22 carries, or 6.1 yards per attempt. If anything like that happens this weekend, the Panthers run game is in business. They rushed for 142 yards against the strong Seahawks defense and Stewart recorded 19-106 and two touchdowns.
Rather than put up Stewart on his own at 8-1 first touchdown scorer, I think we can't ignore Cam Newton at 10-1. We are getting just under 4-1 the pair backing both to equal stakes, for the favourite at home with a top rushing offense and a possible weakness in the defense.
6 points Jonathan Stewart First touchdown scorer Carolina Panthers v Arizona Cardinals 8-1 SkyBet, Coral, William Hill
6 points Cam Newton First touchdown scorer Carolina Panthers v Arizona Cardinals 10-1 SkyBet, Coral, William Hill
Fantasy Sports and the UK
Daily fantasy sports companies are currently busy rejecting the idea that their rapidly growing industry should be considered gambling in the United States after a controversial year in which their activities have been severely curtailed by state regulators across the US.
FanDuel and DraftKings meanwhile are happy to embrace the “gambling “ label in the United Kingdom as part of a putative global expansion strategy .Late last year our gambling regulators granted a gambling licence to DraftKings in August, while FanDuel also applied for a licence as a "gambling software" company.
This would appear to be a contradiction but DraftKings, maintain that they are simply approaching each country case by case with games of skill looked at differently by regulators around the world.
DraftKings plans to offer its familiar range of NFL, NBA, Major League Baseball and NHL contests in the U.K. but with a special emphasis on European football.
Unlike in the United States, where sports betting is legal only in a handful of states, daily fantasy sports will have to compete with a well-established sports betting industry. In addition the furore in their home markets already forcing a financial retrenchment of sorts by the companies, which may siphon energy and resources from global expansion efforts.
For the UK betting industry it could be that a fantasy/soft sports betting product connects with a hitherto undeveloped set of potential customers who don’t gamble and a simplified version that tapped into social media, a fantasy football style points system and a small stake – big win proposition, could emerge.
An op-ed from iGaming Business took a look at how the UK betting industry could make some headway in daily fantasy sports.
Written by the CEO of a fantasy and sportsbook platform provider the opinion piece (“Unlocking fantasy sports in Europe”) took a look at issues stunting the growth of fantasy sports here. These included
- A new tax law in the U.K.
- Old software being using by sports-books that doesn’t accommodate fantasy sports.
- A reluctance by companies to embrace daily fantasy sports and engage fans..
- Failure to adequately utilise social media.
The biggest current inhibitor is identified as the point of consumption tax which it is argued prevents innovation and creativity as risk-averse operators protect their bottom line
Sports betting websites in the U.K. have been to slow to incorporate a fantasy component into their sites with most being mixtures of legacy software preventing the implementation of any new products such as fantasy.
The question remains as to whether this product can actually succeed in the UK. A live daily fantasy real-time product might hold appeal to customers who are accustomed to watching sport while monitoring statistics and social media on a second screen and millions play games like fantasy Premier League setting line ups on a weekly basis. New entrants (alongside an existing operator like Mondogoal) are required with new technology to open up the daily market but given their issues at home it remains to be seen if the US majors reach our shores.
NFL - Playoffs and Super Bowl XLX (inc the prop bets)
This weekend sees the Cnference games and Superbowl 50 is February 7th - £40 Sign up here
This is one of the best situations of the whole year for finding excellent value and bookmaker mistakes.
NFL 2014 Superbowl and Playoffs results: 231 points bet, 31.7 points profit, +13.72% ROI
NFL 2015 Superbowl and Playoffs results: 524 points bet, 49.51 points profit, +9.45% ROI
Six Nations Rugby Package (6th February - 19th March 2016)
Following a successful Rugby World Cup package (+28.3% ROI) i will be covering the Rugby Six Nations, including an outright preview and each game weekend
The package costs £50. Sign Up here
Get Access to Brodders Football Write-ups For Free
All Brodders bets since January 2014 are currently showing a ROI of +1.96% (over 1800 bets) (at 6th Jan 2016)
- Betting £10 a point would be showing a profit of +£4363.90
Following the Christmas break for many of the European Leagues, Brodders coverage resumed in early January 3rd
You can follow him for free for the whole of January and see how good he is for yourself.
Your access will be available on this link.
Make sure that you follow us on Twitter and have your Brodders email alerts ticked here so you don't miss out.
Getting the best price available is very important for all those who take their betting seriously.
Please open an account with all those bookmakers on the page on this link that you do not already have an account with using the links provided.
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
£10 per point on every recommended bet since launch in Feb 2013 would be winning £10,094.80 (as at 6th January 2016)
A £4000 bank (see FAQ re bank-roll requirements) betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £14,094.80 a 352% increase
All bets have an ROI +2.00% and Horse Racing has an ROI +6.20%
There is also a Frequently Asked Questions Section
The Road to Riches: Weekend 16th-17th January
- Football, the Premier league programme includes Liverpool and Manchester United on Sunday. A new write up in 'Premier League Over/Under 2.5 Goal Analysis' has been published. Read it here
- NFL After a dramatic wild-card weekend, this weekend sees the four Divisional Round games. Sign up for play-off coverage here
- Racing, national hunt meetngs at Wetherby and Warwick and on the all-weather at Chelmsford City and Lingfield
- Tennis, the build up to the Australian open continues this week with WTA Hobart International in Hobart, ATP & WTA Apia International in Sydney and the ATP ASB Classic in Auckland.
- Golf, European Tour: Joburg Open in South Africa and USPGA Tour: Sony Open in Hawaii.
- Cricket, the third Test match between Suth Africa and England continues in Johannesburg.
- Rugby Union, European Rugby Champions cup Pool matches
- Snooker, the final stages of the Masters Tournament
Australian Open Tennis Championships (Jan 18th-31st 2016)
The Australian Open starts on Monday. Nigel Seeley will be covering the first Grand Slam Tennis event of the new year and his Singles Previews were published today.
Last year he showed +ROI 39.9% for this event
The cost of the package is £50, sign up here
Free Tip
Green Bay Packers at Arizona Cardinals (Sunday 1.15am)
Green Bay, fresh off returning to some form in wild card weekend at Washington travel to Arizona this weekend, for a repeat of the week 16 regular season game where the then out of sorts Packers were thrashed 38-8. Arizona are rightly one of the superbowl favourites with an explosive offense and a talented defense, allied to aggressive coaching that sees them get plenty of opportunities to score. They are the second-highest scoring offense in the league.
They are seven point favourites to advance to the conference Championship. One thing to bear in mind is that in the 30 point thrashing a few weeks ago the Packers turned over the ball four times, including on their own goal-line, with Rodgers really struggling behind a patchwork offensive line. No doubt this game will be closer, and I will (fortunately, for me) leave discussion on the spread and points lines to Neil in his package linked to below.
My focus for the free tip is the first touchdown scorer market.
The Cardinals running game is crucial to their big-play offense to set up the play-action passes far downfield that have become Arizona's trademark. Starting at running back for the Cardinals is exciting rookie David Johnson.
In his five starts, he has rushed for 442 yards, with 216 yards receiving. Those 658 combined yards are more than any other player in the NFL in that span. Johnson leads the team with 13 touchdowns, including 4 in the 5 games he has started.
Johnson, a third-round draft pick, made a big impression from his first week in NFL. He scored on his first reception in the league a 55 yard touchdown pass. The next week, at Chicago, he returned the opening kickoff 108 yards for a score. He then rotated into the line up until Chris Johnson went down with a knee injury at San Francisco in November. Back up running game Andre Ellington also was hurt at the time, so the job went to Johnson, and he has kept it.
What makes Johnson such an interesting option in touchdown markets is that he runs, catches it out of the backfield and is used in the return game too. 13 touchdowns in his first season speaks to his ability to rack up points .
On the other side of the ball Green Bay have allowed opposing running backs to rack up 120 yards a game in their 17 games this season. They restricted Washington to 84 last week but a) Washington were chasing the game in the second half and b) you can't "stack the box" against the Cardinals as Carson Palmer and his slew of quick talented receivers will take advantage.
Of course, Green Bay and Aaron Rodgers might get the ball first, the bane of many an opposing first touchdown scorer bet. In the week sixteen game the Cardinals restricted the Packers to 178 yards of offense. The Packers focus this time has to be to "max protect" Rodgers at the outset and not fall too far behind. This plays in favour of the Cardinals being the most likely team to record big plays first in this game.
7 points David Johnson First touchdown scorer Arizona Cardinals v Green Bay Packers 6-1 Bet365, Betfair Sportsbook or PaddyPower
Neil Channing's selections did well over Wildcard Weekend. This weekend is the divisional round and Superbowl 50 is February 7th - £40 Sign up to Neil Channing's coverage of all this weekend's games here
Premier League TV rights and Competitive balance
Or, why this is not the season to be relegated……
Despite the influx of foreign owners and increasingly large TV deals the Premier League overshadows many European leagues in overall competitive balance. Just to give the example of this season there are 8 points differentiating the top 5 teams after 21 games, compared to the Bundesliga where the top 5 teams are 19 points apart, and in France’s Ligue 1’s the top 5 teams are 25 points apart.
The Premier League has become one of the most successful sport franchises commercially. Its financial growth can be attributed to three key areas, namely broadcasting (media) revenues, match day revenues and sponsorship (commercial) revenues.
Excluding deals for TV rights the different growth rates of revenues from match day and sponsorship sources put the competitive balance of the league at risk. A disproportionate share of the league’s total sponsorship and match day revenues are concentrated in the top teams with the biggest stadia. However the growth in TV broadcasting revenues has outpaced the growth of other forms of revenue over the last decade. Due to the equality of distribution of TV revenues in England the difference between the highest and lowest paid clubs is the lowest in the top leagues of Europe (at 1.5:1, compared to Spain 12.5:1 and the Bundesliga 2:1).
There’s never been a good season to be relegated but this season club owners and fans up and down the country know this year will bring a cash bonanza they simply dare not miss out on.
England’s top division is already the wealthiest in global football, with each team pocketing an average of £80million from central funds each year. Last season Chelsea banked £99m in Premier League prize money while even bottom placed QPR went down with £64.9m.
The money on offer for the current season will be similar for the respective finishes. From 2016-17 that average of £80m per club will leap closer to £120m per club per season. Next season’s winners will take home central prize cash alone of around £150m. The team at the bottom will earn about £100m.
Sky and BT Sport will pay a record £5.136bn for live Premier League TV rights for 2016-17. There was interest from Discovery, which owns Eurosport, and BeIN sports, based in Qatar, and that interest has pushed BT and Sky to bid more in order to keep the rights. In addition there is the sale of overseas TV rights for 2016-19. Those, according to a forecast by The Mail on Sunday, will add up to £3.2billion for the foreign rights alone for those three years.
So for clubs in danger of relegation, which most obviously include Aston Villa, as well as Sunderland, Newcastle and perhaps as many as seven others, this January transfer isn’t just another chance to buy and sell. Decisions made this month could conceivably make or break the medium-term futures of some clubs.
In the past, there have been increased TV deals spent on better players, bigger transfer fees and higher wages. That is likely to happen again, at least to some extent with every Premier League club is inside the top 30 forecast TV earners. Even the smaller Premier League clubs are entering the market with serious intentions of buying established European internationals from other leagues . Most of the Premier League's clubs can now compete with virtually every club in the major leagues of Europe for top players aside from the 'mega' clubs of Real Madrid, Barcelona, Bayern Munich and Paris Saint-Germain. It goes without saying that clubs such as these have huge income streams and can also pay big salaries.
However the new TV deals from next season are going to have an even more marked effect on competitive balance than we are seeing this season. Every Premier league club can buy top talent, and the sheer sums of money they will have will guarantee competition from top to bottom of the league.
For football bettors, perhaps an outcome will be more unpredictable results. An article in the Economist of all places just before Christmas highlighted that at that point of the season 25% of all top flight games in the current season had been won by the underdog. This season there are exceptional circumstances at Chelsea and Manchester United on the one hand, and Leicester and Watford on the other perhaps, but probably a sign of things to come.
NFL - Playoffs and Super Bowl XLX (inc the prop bets)
The playoffs are underway, this weekend is the divisional round and Superbowl 50 is February 7th - £40 Sign up here
This is one of the best situations of the whole year for finding excellent value and bookmaker mistakes.
NFL 2014 Superbowl and Playoffs results: 231 points bet, 31.7 points profit, +13.72% ROI
NFL 2015 Superbowl and Playoffs results: 524 points bet, 49.51 points profit, +9.45% ROI
Get Access to Brodders Football Write-ups For Free
All Brodders bets since January 2014 are currently showing a ROI of +1.96% (over 1800 bets) (at 6th Jan 2016)
- Betting £10 a point would be showing a profit of +£4363.90
Following the Christmas break for many of the European Leagues, Brodders coverage resumed in early January 3rd
You can follow him for free for the whole of January and see how good he is for yourself.
Your access will be available on this link.
Make sure that you follow us on Twitter and have your Brodders email alerts ticked here so you don't miss out.
England Cricket Tour to South Africa (4 tests) (26th Dec - 27th Jan)
Preview of the four test series and each Test match looking at outright and sub-markets. Coverage of the whole series is FREE
Bookmaker reviews and advice
Getting the best price available is very important for all those who take their betting seriously.
Please open an account with all those bookmakers on the page on this link that you do not already have an account with using the links provided.
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
£10 per point on every recommended bet since launch in Feb 2013 would be winning £10,094.80 (as at 6th January 2016)
A £4000 bank (see FAQ re bank-roll requirements) betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £14,094.80 a 352% increase
All bets have an ROI +2.00% and Horse Racing has an ROI +6.20%
There is also a Frequently Asked Questions Section
The Road to Riches: Weekend 9th-10th January
- Football, FA Cup third round weekend, with televised games including Tottenham v Leicester City on Sunday.
- NFL the Play-Offs Wildcard weekend. Two games on Saturday, two on Sunday over the first weekend of the play-offs. Sign up for play-off coverage here
- Racing, national hunt including the Welsh Grand National at Chepstow and at Doncaster, Kempton and Wincanton and on the all weather at Lingfield
- Tennis, the start of the 2016 season and the run up to the Australian Open later this month with ATP & WTA Brisbane International, ATP Chennai Open and ATP Qatar this week
- Golf, the new season: USPGA Tour: Hyundai Tournament Of Champions in Hawaii and European Tour The BMW SA Open in Johannesburg.
- Rugby Union, European champions Challenge cup matches (postponed after the Paris attacks) i ncluding Stade Francais v Munster
Free Tip FA Cup third round Newport County v Blackburn Rovers
This season’s FA Cup sees its third round this weekend, with the 44 teams from the top two divisions joining the 20 lower league survivors from the earlier rounds in 32 ties across four days.
Traditionally one of the most exciting weekends of the football year the FA Cup has struggled to maintain its place in the football calendar in recent years, in large part because of the all-pervasive nature of Premier League coverage. In a crowded schedule just after the Christmas period, many of the major teams have chosen FA Cup rounds in recent years to rest players, rotate starting elevens and in some cases de-emphasise the competition such are the financial rewards on offer from each league position. Ambivalent attitudes to the modern day FA Cup extend beyond the Premier League. This week the new QPR manager Jimmy Floyd Hasselbaink described the FA Cup third round as “not welcome”.
All this makes the third round a tricky betting proposition, as compared to previous years you are guessing at team motivations as well as line up rotation for many of the Premier league teams. Instead of looking at the major clubs I have had a look through the games focussing on those a little below the betting radar for most.
Saturday's match between Newport and Blackburn will be Newport's first in the third round of the FA Cup in 30 years and the first competitive match between the two clubs.
Both teams have had difficult seasons, and have changed managers. John Sheridan came to Newport to succeed Terry Butcher, Paul Lambert took over from Gary Bowyer at Blackburn.
For Newport, Butcher had to manage against a background of the playing budget being dramatically reduced from last year and when he left the club had only two points from ten games. Since Sheridan’s arrival, Newport have won 18 points in 14 games and won away at Barnet in the second round of the cup and Sheridan is already the subject of interest from Notts County for their managerial vacancy.
For Blackburn Lambert recorded three wins and two draws in his first five games, but recent form is poor with three successive losses and no goals in four games and over seven hours of play, all of which makes the main priority staying in the division.. The club is under a football league FFP transfer embargo, Lambert has been in the local press talking about the challenge ahead and specifically talking about “ringing the changes” for this weekend.
All this makes the prospect of a trip to lower league opposition an unappetising one for Blackburn. What makes this match interesting over and above the form of the two teams is the venue, a shared use rugby and football ground Rodney Parade which has had remedial work on its pitch but is still renowned as a difficult surface during the winter months. Both Newport county and Newport RFC had games postponed last weekend due to a waterlogged pitch. Saturday is expected to be wet too and this will be a rarity in this era of perfect pitches and modern stadia, a throwback to old cup ties.
Logically, tough conditions should level the playing field and give the underdog a punchers chance, increased if Blackburn don’t fancy it. In the outright market it’s not a surprise to see Blackburn odds on 8/11, the draw 5/2 and Newport 4/1. Newport are 5-2 draw no bet as well which looks very interesting indeed to me.
6 points Newport County at 5-2 Draw no bet versus Blackburn Rovers Skybet or Ladbrokes
Racing Moves to ITV
Last week it was announced that ITV has won the rights to broadcast racing in a £30m four year deal. Channel 4 currently pays c£15m a year for around 90 days of racing. ITV1 will cover a minimum of 34 days of the 100 days coverage in total, as well as a weekly morning magazine show to take the place of The Morning Line.
These 34 race days will be shown to a potentially bigger audience. ITV1 has greater reach than C4 with a 14.6% audience share in 2014 according to BARB compared to 5.4% for Channel 4.
The following events, which add up to 25 days racing, have been confirmed as ‘marquee’ events on ITV1:
*Cheltenham Festival (4)
*Grand National meeting, Aintree (3)
*Derby meeting, Epsom (2)
*Royal Ascot (5)
*Glorious Goodwood (5)
*Ebor meeting, York (4)
*St Leger, Doncaster (1)
*British Champions Day, Ascot (1)
A negative, at least at outset, is that the other 60 days will be shown to a potentially smaller audience on ITV4. ITV4 has less than 2.4% audience share in 2014, and furthermore ITV4 is not available in Ireland. Channel 4’s last racing broadcast is due to be on 31st December 2016, with the reshuffling of racing on terrestrial television being partly due to Channel4’s acquisition of F1 coverage.
Another big reason for the change is concern over Channel 4 racing’s viewing figures. A spokesman for British horseracing said of viewing figures “We feel there will be a significant enhancement with ITV. Royal Ascot and the Derby in particular should see some substantial increases.”
For Channel 4, viewing figures for Champions Day at Ascot last October fell by a third compared to 2014 to an average of just 367,000. 1.1m viewers watched the same day in the BBC's final year of racing coverage in 2012. Earlier in 2015 the Derby was seen by a peak audience of 1.47m, less than half what was achieved in 2012. Only last week it emerged that 2015 Boxing Day channel 4 racing had been watched by an average of 475,000, two-thirds of the figure from three years before.
Above the specific issue of Channel 4’s coverage, an issue which the ITV deal does not specifically address is the broader question of whether the apparent downfall of racing on television is due to the way in which the sport is broadcast, or are external factors simply shifting?
It may be that viewing figures are suffering primarily because of how we are able to watch television, for example via Sky+ and On Demand and especially because of bookmaker mobile apps, where anyone that places a bet can watch a race on their phones and tablets without going near terrestrial television. It could be that the over-riding issue is viewer habits firstly and the strength of the product secondly.
For any racing broadcaster, facing declines in viewer figures and technological changes impinging on their audience, the essential question does not appear to me to have been adequately solved. What does the audience want?
Attendances at race meetings are actually quite healthy (in fact, they’ve reached record levels this year), and horse racing is still one of our top five spectator sports, but it needs to engage with the armchair viewer as well as it engages with those who turn up at the course. Does the racing viewer want primarily punting based coverage? If so, then I am not sure that uninformative interviews with connections and some of the current human interest features encourage the viewer to stay tuned in during the long intervals between races. Perhaps there simply needs to be more action.
NFL - Playoffs and Super Bowl XLX (inc the prop bets)
The playoffs start on this weekend and Superbowl 50 is February 7th - £40 Sign up here
This is one of the best situations of the whole year for finding excellent value and bookmaker mistakes.
NFL 2014 Superbowl and Playoffs results: 231 points bet, 31.7 points profit, +13.72% ROI
NFL 2015 Superbowl and Playoffs results: 524 points bet, 49.51 points profit, +9.45% ROI
Australian Open Tennis Championships (Jan 18th-31st 2016)
Nigel Seeley will be covering the first Grand Slam Tennis event of the new year from Melbourne. The cost of the package is £50, sign up here
Get Access to Brodders Football Write-ups For Free
All Brodders bets since January 2014 are currently showing a ROI of +1.96% (over 1800 bets) (at 6th Jan 2016)
- Betting £10 a point would be showing a profit of +£4363.90
Following the Christmas break for many of the European Leagues, Brodders coverage resumed in early January 3rd
You can follow him for free for the whole of January and see how good he is for yourself.
Your access will be available on this link.
Make sure that you follow us on Twitter and have your Brodders email alerts ticked here so you don't miss out.
England Cricket Tour to South Africa (4 tests) (26th Dec - 27th Jan)
Preview of the four test series and each Test match looking at outright and sub-markets. Coverage of the whole series is FREE
Bookmaker reviews and advice
Getting the best price available is very important for all those who take their betting seriously.
Please open an account with all those bookmakers on the page on this link that you do not already have an account with using the links provided.
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
£10 per point on every recommended bet since launch in Feb 2013 would be winning £10,094.80 (as at 6th January 2016)
A £4000 bank (see FAQ re bank-roll requirements) betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £14,094.80 a 352% increase
All bets have an ROI +2.00% and Horse Racing has an ROI +6.20%
There is also a Frequently Asked Questions Section
