Weekly Articles "Road to Riches" by Rich 'Tighty' Prew
The Road to Riches: Weekend 16th-17th January
- Football, the Premier league programme includes Liverpool and Manchester United on Sunday. A new write up in 'Premier League Over/Under 2.5 Goal Analysis' has been published. Read it here
- NFL After a dramatic wild-card weekend, this weekend sees the four Divisional Round games. Sign up for play-off coverage here
- Racing, national hunt meetngs at Wetherby and Warwick and on the all-weather at Chelmsford City and Lingfield
- Tennis, the build up to the Australian open continues this week with WTA Hobart International in Hobart, ATP & WTA Apia International in Sydney and the ATP ASB Classic in Auckland.
- Golf, European Tour: Joburg Open in South Africa and USPGA Tour: Sony Open in Hawaii.
- Cricket, the third Test match between Suth Africa and England continues in Johannesburg.
- Rugby Union, European Rugby Champions cup Pool matches
- Snooker, the final stages of the Masters Tournament
Australian Open Tennis Championships (Jan 18th-31st 2016)
The Australian Open starts on Monday. Nigel Seeley will be covering the first Grand Slam Tennis event of the new year and his Singles Previews were published today.
Last year he showed +ROI 39.9% for this event
The cost of the package is £50, sign up here
Free Tip
Green Bay Packers at Arizona Cardinals (Sunday 1.15am)
Green Bay, fresh off returning to some form in wild card weekend at Washington travel to Arizona this weekend, for a repeat of the week 16 regular season game where the then out of sorts Packers were thrashed 38-8. Arizona are rightly one of the superbowl favourites with an explosive offense and a talented defense, allied to aggressive coaching that sees them get plenty of opportunities to score. They are the second-highest scoring offense in the league.
They are seven point favourites to advance to the conference Championship. One thing to bear in mind is that in the 30 point thrashing a few weeks ago the Packers turned over the ball four times, including on their own goal-line, with Rodgers really struggling behind a patchwork offensive line. No doubt this game will be closer, and I will (fortunately, for me) leave discussion on the spread and points lines to Neil in his package linked to below.
My focus for the free tip is the first touchdown scorer market.
The Cardinals running game is crucial to their big-play offense to set up the play-action passes far downfield that have become Arizona's trademark. Starting at running back for the Cardinals is exciting rookie David Johnson.
In his five starts, he has rushed for 442 yards, with 216 yards receiving. Those 658 combined yards are more than any other player in the NFL in that span. Johnson leads the team with 13 touchdowns, including 4 in the 5 games he has started.
Johnson, a third-round draft pick, made a big impression from his first week in NFL. He scored on his first reception in the league a 55 yard touchdown pass. The next week, at Chicago, he returned the opening kickoff 108 yards for a score. He then rotated into the line up until Chris Johnson went down with a knee injury at San Francisco in November. Back up running game Andre Ellington also was hurt at the time, so the job went to Johnson, and he has kept it.
What makes Johnson such an interesting option in touchdown markets is that he runs, catches it out of the backfield and is used in the return game too. 13 touchdowns in his first season speaks to his ability to rack up points .
On the other side of the ball Green Bay have allowed opposing running backs to rack up 120 yards a game in their 17 games this season. They restricted Washington to 84 last week but a) Washington were chasing the game in the second half and b) you can't "stack the box" against the Cardinals as Carson Palmer and his slew of quick talented receivers will take advantage.
Of course, Green Bay and Aaron Rodgers might get the ball first, the bane of many an opposing first touchdown scorer bet. In the week sixteen game the Cardinals restricted the Packers to 178 yards of offense. The Packers focus this time has to be to "max protect" Rodgers at the outset and not fall too far behind. This plays in favour of the Cardinals being the most likely team to record big plays first in this game.
7 points David Johnson First touchdown scorer Arizona Cardinals v Green Bay Packers 6-1 Bet365, Betfair Sportsbook or PaddyPower
Neil Channing's selections did well over Wildcard Weekend. This weekend is the divisional round and Superbowl 50 is February 7th - £40 Sign up to Neil Channing's coverage of all this weekend's games here
Premier League TV rights and Competitive balance
Or, why this is not the season to be relegated……
Despite the influx of foreign owners and increasingly large TV deals the Premier League overshadows many European leagues in overall competitive balance. Just to give the example of this season there are 8 points differentiating the top 5 teams after 21 games, compared to the Bundesliga where the top 5 teams are 19 points apart, and in France’s Ligue 1’s the top 5 teams are 25 points apart.
The Premier League has become one of the most successful sport franchises commercially. Its financial growth can be attributed to three key areas, namely broadcasting (media) revenues, match day revenues and sponsorship (commercial) revenues.
Excluding deals for TV rights the different growth rates of revenues from match day and sponsorship sources put the competitive balance of the league at risk. A disproportionate share of the league’s total sponsorship and match day revenues are concentrated in the top teams with the biggest stadia. However the growth in TV broadcasting revenues has outpaced the growth of other forms of revenue over the last decade. Due to the equality of distribution of TV revenues in England the difference between the highest and lowest paid clubs is the lowest in the top leagues of Europe (at 1.5:1, compared to Spain 12.5:1 and the Bundesliga 2:1).
There’s never been a good season to be relegated but this season club owners and fans up and down the country know this year will bring a cash bonanza they simply dare not miss out on.
England’s top division is already the wealthiest in global football, with each team pocketing an average of £80million from central funds each year. Last season Chelsea banked £99m in Premier League prize money while even bottom placed QPR went down with £64.9m.
The money on offer for the current season will be similar for the respective finishes. From 2016-17 that average of £80m per club will leap closer to £120m per club per season. Next season’s winners will take home central prize cash alone of around £150m. The team at the bottom will earn about £100m.
Sky and BT Sport will pay a record £5.136bn for live Premier League TV rights for 2016-17. There was interest from Discovery, which owns Eurosport, and BeIN sports, based in Qatar, and that interest has pushed BT and Sky to bid more in order to keep the rights. In addition there is the sale of overseas TV rights for 2016-19. Those, according to a forecast by The Mail on Sunday, will add up to £3.2billion for the foreign rights alone for those three years.
So for clubs in danger of relegation, which most obviously include Aston Villa, as well as Sunderland, Newcastle and perhaps as many as seven others, this January transfer isn’t just another chance to buy and sell. Decisions made this month could conceivably make or break the medium-term futures of some clubs.
In the past, there have been increased TV deals spent on better players, bigger transfer fees and higher wages. That is likely to happen again, at least to some extent with every Premier League club is inside the top 30 forecast TV earners. Even the smaller Premier League clubs are entering the market with serious intentions of buying established European internationals from other leagues . Most of the Premier League's clubs can now compete with virtually every club in the major leagues of Europe for top players aside from the 'mega' clubs of Real Madrid, Barcelona, Bayern Munich and Paris Saint-Germain. It goes without saying that clubs such as these have huge income streams and can also pay big salaries.
However the new TV deals from next season are going to have an even more marked effect on competitive balance than we are seeing this season. Every Premier league club can buy top talent, and the sheer sums of money they will have will guarantee competition from top to bottom of the league.
For football bettors, perhaps an outcome will be more unpredictable results. An article in the Economist of all places just before Christmas highlighted that at that point of the season 25% of all top flight games in the current season had been won by the underdog. This season there are exceptional circumstances at Chelsea and Manchester United on the one hand, and Leicester and Watford on the other perhaps, but probably a sign of things to come.
NFL - Playoffs and Super Bowl XLX (inc the prop bets)
The playoffs are underway, this weekend is the divisional round and Superbowl 50 is February 7th - £40 Sign up here
This is one of the best situations of the whole year for finding excellent value and bookmaker mistakes.
NFL 2014 Superbowl and Playoffs results: 231 points bet, 31.7 points profit, +13.72% ROI
NFL 2015 Superbowl and Playoffs results: 524 points bet, 49.51 points profit, +9.45% ROI
Get Access to Brodders Football Write-ups For Free
All Brodders bets since January 2014 are currently showing a ROI of +1.96% (over 1800 bets) (at 6th Jan 2016)
- Betting £10 a point would be showing a profit of +£4363.90
Following the Christmas break for many of the European Leagues, Brodders coverage resumed in early January 3rd
You can follow him for free for the whole of January and see how good he is for yourself.
Your access will be available on this link.
Make sure that you follow us on Twitter and have your Brodders email alerts ticked here so you don't miss out.
England Cricket Tour to South Africa (4 tests) (26th Dec - 27th Jan)
Preview of the four test series and each Test match looking at outright and sub-markets. Coverage of the whole series is FREE
Bookmaker reviews and advice
Getting the best price available is very important for all those who take their betting seriously.
Please open an account with all those bookmakers on the page on this link that you do not already have an account with using the links provided.
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
£10 per point on every recommended bet since launch in Feb 2013 would be winning £10,094.80 (as at 6th January 2016)
A £4000 bank (see FAQ re bank-roll requirements) betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £14,094.80 a 352% increase
All bets have an ROI +2.00% and Horse Racing has an ROI +6.20%
There is also a Frequently Asked Questions Section
The Road to Riches: Weekend 9th-10th January
- Football, FA Cup third round weekend, with televised games including Tottenham v Leicester City on Sunday.
- NFL the Play-Offs Wildcard weekend. Two games on Saturday, two on Sunday over the first weekend of the play-offs. Sign up for play-off coverage here
- Racing, national hunt including the Welsh Grand National at Chepstow and at Doncaster, Kempton and Wincanton and on the all weather at Lingfield
- Tennis, the start of the 2016 season and the run up to the Australian Open later this month with ATP & WTA Brisbane International, ATP Chennai Open and ATP Qatar this week
- Golf, the new season: USPGA Tour: Hyundai Tournament Of Champions in Hawaii and European Tour The BMW SA Open in Johannesburg.
- Rugby Union, European champions Challenge cup matches (postponed after the Paris attacks) i ncluding Stade Francais v Munster
Free Tip FA Cup third round Newport County v Blackburn Rovers
This season’s FA Cup sees its third round this weekend, with the 44 teams from the top two divisions joining the 20 lower league survivors from the earlier rounds in 32 ties across four days.
Traditionally one of the most exciting weekends of the football year the FA Cup has struggled to maintain its place in the football calendar in recent years, in large part because of the all-pervasive nature of Premier League coverage. In a crowded schedule just after the Christmas period, many of the major teams have chosen FA Cup rounds in recent years to rest players, rotate starting elevens and in some cases de-emphasise the competition such are the financial rewards on offer from each league position. Ambivalent attitudes to the modern day FA Cup extend beyond the Premier League. This week the new QPR manager Jimmy Floyd Hasselbaink described the FA Cup third round as “not welcome”.
All this makes the third round a tricky betting proposition, as compared to previous years you are guessing at team motivations as well as line up rotation for many of the Premier league teams. Instead of looking at the major clubs I have had a look through the games focussing on those a little below the betting radar for most.
Saturday's match between Newport and Blackburn will be Newport's first in the third round of the FA Cup in 30 years and the first competitive match between the two clubs.
Both teams have had difficult seasons, and have changed managers. John Sheridan came to Newport to succeed Terry Butcher, Paul Lambert took over from Gary Bowyer at Blackburn.
For Newport, Butcher had to manage against a background of the playing budget being dramatically reduced from last year and when he left the club had only two points from ten games. Since Sheridan’s arrival, Newport have won 18 points in 14 games and won away at Barnet in the second round of the cup and Sheridan is already the subject of interest from Notts County for their managerial vacancy.
For Blackburn Lambert recorded three wins and two draws in his first five games, but recent form is poor with three successive losses and no goals in four games and over seven hours of play, all of which makes the main priority staying in the division.. The club is under a football league FFP transfer embargo, Lambert has been in the local press talking about the challenge ahead and specifically talking about “ringing the changes” for this weekend.
All this makes the prospect of a trip to lower league opposition an unappetising one for Blackburn. What makes this match interesting over and above the form of the two teams is the venue, a shared use rugby and football ground Rodney Parade which has had remedial work on its pitch but is still renowned as a difficult surface during the winter months. Both Newport county and Newport RFC had games postponed last weekend due to a waterlogged pitch. Saturday is expected to be wet too and this will be a rarity in this era of perfect pitches and modern stadia, a throwback to old cup ties.
Logically, tough conditions should level the playing field and give the underdog a punchers chance, increased if Blackburn don’t fancy it. In the outright market it’s not a surprise to see Blackburn odds on 8/11, the draw 5/2 and Newport 4/1. Newport are 5-2 draw no bet as well which looks very interesting indeed to me.
6 points Newport County at 5-2 Draw no bet versus Blackburn Rovers Skybet or Ladbrokes
Racing Moves to ITV
Last week it was announced that ITV has won the rights to broadcast racing in a £30m four year deal. Channel 4 currently pays c£15m a year for around 90 days of racing. ITV1 will cover a minimum of 34 days of the 100 days coverage in total, as well as a weekly morning magazine show to take the place of The Morning Line.
These 34 race days will be shown to a potentially bigger audience. ITV1 has greater reach than C4 with a 14.6% audience share in 2014 according to BARB compared to 5.4% for Channel 4.
The following events, which add up to 25 days racing, have been confirmed as ‘marquee’ events on ITV1:
*Cheltenham Festival (4)
*Grand National meeting, Aintree (3)
*Derby meeting, Epsom (2)
*Royal Ascot (5)
*Glorious Goodwood (5)
*Ebor meeting, York (4)
*St Leger, Doncaster (1)
*British Champions Day, Ascot (1)
A negative, at least at outset, is that the other 60 days will be shown to a potentially smaller audience on ITV4. ITV4 has less than 2.4% audience share in 2014, and furthermore ITV4 is not available in Ireland. Channel 4’s last racing broadcast is due to be on 31st December 2016, with the reshuffling of racing on terrestrial television being partly due to Channel4’s acquisition of F1 coverage.
Another big reason for the change is concern over Channel 4 racing’s viewing figures. A spokesman for British horseracing said of viewing figures “We feel there will be a significant enhancement with ITV. Royal Ascot and the Derby in particular should see some substantial increases.”
For Channel 4, viewing figures for Champions Day at Ascot last October fell by a third compared to 2014 to an average of just 367,000. 1.1m viewers watched the same day in the BBC's final year of racing coverage in 2012. Earlier in 2015 the Derby was seen by a peak audience of 1.47m, less than half what was achieved in 2012. Only last week it emerged that 2015 Boxing Day channel 4 racing had been watched by an average of 475,000, two-thirds of the figure from three years before.
Above the specific issue of Channel 4’s coverage, an issue which the ITV deal does not specifically address is the broader question of whether the apparent downfall of racing on television is due to the way in which the sport is broadcast, or are external factors simply shifting?
It may be that viewing figures are suffering primarily because of how we are able to watch television, for example via Sky+ and On Demand and especially because of bookmaker mobile apps, where anyone that places a bet can watch a race on their phones and tablets without going near terrestrial television. It could be that the over-riding issue is viewer habits firstly and the strength of the product secondly.
For any racing broadcaster, facing declines in viewer figures and technological changes impinging on their audience, the essential question does not appear to me to have been adequately solved. What does the audience want?
Attendances at race meetings are actually quite healthy (in fact, they’ve reached record levels this year), and horse racing is still one of our top five spectator sports, but it needs to engage with the armchair viewer as well as it engages with those who turn up at the course. Does the racing viewer want primarily punting based coverage? If so, then I am not sure that uninformative interviews with connections and some of the current human interest features encourage the viewer to stay tuned in during the long intervals between races. Perhaps there simply needs to be more action.
NFL - Playoffs and Super Bowl XLX (inc the prop bets)
The playoffs start on this weekend and Superbowl 50 is February 7th - £40 Sign up here
This is one of the best situations of the whole year for finding excellent value and bookmaker mistakes.
NFL 2014 Superbowl and Playoffs results: 231 points bet, 31.7 points profit, +13.72% ROI
NFL 2015 Superbowl and Playoffs results: 524 points bet, 49.51 points profit, +9.45% ROI
Australian Open Tennis Championships (Jan 18th-31st 2016)
Nigel Seeley will be covering the first Grand Slam Tennis event of the new year from Melbourne. The cost of the package is £50, sign up here
Get Access to Brodders Football Write-ups For Free
All Brodders bets since January 2014 are currently showing a ROI of +1.96% (over 1800 bets) (at 6th Jan 2016)
- Betting £10 a point would be showing a profit of +£4363.90
Following the Christmas break for many of the European Leagues, Brodders coverage resumed in early January 3rd
You can follow him for free for the whole of January and see how good he is for yourself.
Your access will be available on this link.
Make sure that you follow us on Twitter and have your Brodders email alerts ticked here so you don't miss out.
England Cricket Tour to South Africa (4 tests) (26th Dec - 27th Jan)
Preview of the four test series and each Test match looking at outright and sub-markets. Coverage of the whole series is FREE
Bookmaker reviews and advice
Getting the best price available is very important for all those who take their betting seriously.
Please open an account with all those bookmakers on the page on this link that you do not already have an account with using the links provided.
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
£10 per point on every recommended bet since launch in Feb 2013 would be winning £10,094.80 (as at 6th January 2016)
A £4000 bank (see FAQ re bank-roll requirements) betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £14,094.80 a 352% increase
All bets have an ROI +2.00% and Horse Racing has an ROI +6.20%
There is also a Frequently Asked Questions Section
The Road to Riches: Weekend 2nd-3rd January
Coming Up this weekend
- Football, the Premier League continues with the first fixtures of 2016 on Saturday. A new write up in 'Premier League Over/Under 2.5 Goal Analysis' has been published. Read it here
- NFL Week 17, the final weekend of the regular season ahead of the play-offs. Sign up for week 17 coverage here
If you sign up to the 'Playoffs and Superbowl 50 package' for £40 by January 3rd you get Week 17 write ups for free
- Racing, national hunt fixtures on Saturday at Ayr and Sandown, all weather meetings at Southwell and Chelmsford City
- Darts, the final weekend of the PDC World Championship
- Cricket, the second Test match between South Africa and England begins in Cape Town on Saturday
Free Tips of the week
Perth Scorchers v Sydney Sixers Saturday Jan 2nd 10.15am GMT
Perth are defending double champions of the Australian Franchise T20 cricket competiton the Big Bash (BBL), and so far this season sit in second place in the table with two wins out of three. On Saturday morning our time they host the Sydney Sixers at the WACA. The Sixers have played 5 matches so far with only two wins.
The Sixers are a very experienced but inconsistent team. This is especially the case in their bowling ranks where Lyon, Hazlewood and Starc are currently absent and the regular line up is really struggling. Four of their five opponents so far have got off to fast starts with bowlers Jackson Bird and Doug Bollinger struggling to exert control. This problem area for the Sydney side runs straight into one of the strengths of the Perth side, their opening batsmen.
Perth's batting line up is headed by the experienced Michael Klinger, who the UK sees every year scoring many runs for Gloucestershire and Shaun Marsh, discarded from the Australian test side after the Ashes. Both are in the in the top 5 for run scoring in this year's BBL and Klinger in particular, with two fifties in three games is in great form. After a loss in their opening game (scoring 151-6) the Scorchers have only lost one wicket in the two subsequent games, which makes pricing Klinger and Marsh as 9/4 joint favourites in the Scorchers top batsman market look very reasonable given the match up against under-performing opening bowlers.
In terms of Perth's bowling line up, we find an old favourite of this column David Willey, now established in the England ODI and T20 team and contracted for the BBL before joining England after the South African test series. He has taken 4 wickets in three games and is 3-1 joint favourite with Andrew Tye in the top Scorchers bowler market. It is interesting though to see the Australia A left arm quick Jason Behrendorff as underdog to him, at 7/2. Behrendorff takes the new ball ahead of Willey in this line up, Willey bowls first change. Behrendorff is impressive, has good pace and the ability to swing the ball and is a wicket taker. He was the second highest wicket taker in the Sheffield Shield first class competition last season. In his two games in this year's BBL he has taken 2-32 and 2-14 with the new ball. I don't think he should be an underdog to Willey, much as I am a fan of his, with him taking the new ball ahead of the Englishman.
7 points Michael Klinger Top Perth Scorchers batsman 9/4 Ladbrokes
8 points Jason Behrendorff Top Perth Scorchers bowler 7/2 BetVictor or Ladbrokes
Mobile Betting
Mobile betting is the fastest growing market in the UK gaming industry. According to Juniper Research, online & digital market research specialists, more than £27 billion in bets will be placed via mobile devices by 2017.
The top five bookmakers who account for 60%+ of the UK gambling industry have all reported fast growth through their mobile channels. For example in its latest public accounts William Hill showed that 26% of sports-book turnover was from mobile betting. During 2014, 50% of Bet365’s customers came from a mobile device. According to Paddy Power, their mobile revenues now make up 51% of betting. .
There are a number of factors to take into account in the growth of the UK mobile betting market. Some of these are factors across many industries such as the increasing mobile usage across the population, increasing search impression volumes and advances in app technology.
Other factors are specific to the betting industry as strategies adjust to benefit from technological change. These include the Growth of In-Play Betting. The rise of in-play betting markets and cash out functions represented an important development for betting operators, with punters using mobile to bet while they watch.
Secondly most bookmakers have been promoting their new mobile and in-play betting services during televised matches. In 2014, gambling operators spent a total of £200 million on advertising, of which £90m was spent on TV adverts. Bet365’s “Bet In Play now” ad featuring Ray Winstone has been viewed over one million times and other high profile campaigns include William Hill’s “The Home of Betting” and Ladbroke’s “Game On!”
Meanwhile ever since strict limits on gambling advertisements were relaxed by the Gambling Act 2005, betting firms have had an increasingly prominent interest in British football. For example Bet365 bought Stoke City in 2011 and Skybet began sponsoring the Football League in 2014. The increased prominence of betting firms in football and other sports will have led to more awareness of their services.
Finally the penetration of Social Media into our everyday lives has had a significant impact. Social media ranks highest (57%) amongst all mobile usages according to a report by Deloitte on the Gambling Industry. Facebook opened up its services to gambling related advertising allowing better targeted and location-specific advertising to its users, increasing their penetration of non-traditional customers based on their personal likes and Facebook activity.
NFL - Playoffs and Super Bowl XLX (inc the prop bets)
Playoffs start on January 9th and Superbowl 50 is February 7th - £40 Sign up here
England Cricket Tour to South Africa (4 tests) (26th Dec - 27th Jan)
Preview of the four test series and each Test match looking at outright and sub-markets. Coverage of the whole series is FREE
Australian Open Tennis Championships (Jan 18th-31st 2016)
Nigel Seeley will be covering the first Grand Slam Tennis event of the new year from Melbourne. The cost of the package is £50, sign up here
Sign up to Brodders' tips:
All Brodders bets since January 2014 are currently showing a ROI of +1.21% (over 1600 bets) (at 11th December 2015)
Betting £10 a point would be showing a profit of +£2643.50
Subscription to Brodders' write ups, analysis and bets is £50 a month. You can join at any time
Subscribe here
Bookmaker reviews and advice
Getting the best price available is very important for all those who take their betting seriously.
Please open an account with all those bookmakers on the page on this link that you do not already have an account with using the links provided.
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
£10 per point on every recommended bet since launch in Feb 2013 would be winning £6394.90 (as at 11th December 2015)
All bets have an ROI +1.31% and Horse Racing has an ROI +6.13%
There is also a Frequently Asked Questions Section
The Road to Riches: Christmas Weekend
- Football, the Premier League continues with a hectic Christmas schedule highlights including Liverpool v Leicester on the 26th and Manchester United v Chelsea on the 28th, followed by Leicester v Manchester City on the 29th. A new write up in 'Premier League Over/Under 2.5 Goal Analysis' has been published. Read it here
- NFL Week 16. Sign up for week 16 coverage here
- Racing, Boxing day national hunt fixtures at Kempton (see free tip below), Fontwell Park, Huntingdon, Market Rasen, Sedgefield, Wetherby and Wincanton, together with Wolverhampton on the all-weather.
- Darts, the PDC World Championship continues
- Cricket, the first Test match between Suth Africa and England begins on Boxing day in Durban.
PDC World Darts Championship (Dec 17th 2015 - Jan 3rd 2016)
Nigel Seeley is covering the PDC Darts World Championship for us. Access to the preview, to all the match analysis and details of all the bets that we are having is £50.
| £50 Sign up here | PDC World Darts Championship (Dec 17th 2015 - Jan 3rd 2016) |
Free Tip of the week by Neil Channing
The King George VI Chase: Saturday 26th December, Kempton 3.10pm
The King George is undoubtedly a great race most years but this year it's really good. Apart from the fact that it's the focal point of some great racing over the Christmas season and an important pointer for the Festival it's also a brilliant betting heat especially with many firms offering 1/4 odds.
I certainly can't make a strong case against the favourite Don Cossack, apart from the fact he is a fairly short price, but I wouldn't recommend rushing to lay him at 9/4 or higher. I wouldn't want to back Vautour at these kind of prices though. The horse is a doubtful stayer for sure and as well as being beaten at Ascot last time he also jumped a fair bit to his left which won't help here. This would be the easiest one to put a big line through given the price.
Many people will be rushing to back their old pals here and it's true it's a race that horses come back to year after year. It's clear Silviniaco Conti is so much better on these flat tracks and it wouldn't really surprise me if he ran well but he was pretty easily beaten at Haydock by Cue Card and although he is double the price and possibly value to place at around 2/1 it is quite easy to make a bold case that the horse has just gone and will never run up to his best again. Cue Card ought to beat Conti again here and the horse has clearly benefited from getting his wind sorted out, he seems a different animal. They say that the new Tizzard yard at the top of the hill means he gets fresh air blowing through all day long and that helps too. My main problems with betting Cue Card here are the price, just feels a couple of points too short and the fact that he hasn't always quite gotten home in this race in the past. I do think that the presence of a couple of other potential front runners might make it a tough ask. The 3rd of the old brigade is Al Ferof but I'm not sure that the form of the Peterborough Chase was up to much. One horse ran of in front at a suicidal pace and maybe he just had the run of the race. He also goes so much better fresh.
Valseur Lido is a nice young improving horse but he may not love a slog around here over this trip and Ballynagour ios out of form and well held by some of these.
I've left myself with two possible bets and I'm going to reluctantly pass on one but play the other at a big price. I wouldn't tall put you off betting both.
I backed Smad Place in last year's Gold Cup and he ran sort of Ok but in the Hennessey he was very impressive over a long distance on pretty soft ground. I think the horse will relish this right-handed circuit even more and I really admire his trainer Alan King who has his string in good form. It is tough to get them to keep peaking at the right time though and this race might offer more of a challenge for the lead. At 12/1 a week ago or 20/1 just after the Hennessey I'd quite like this one but at this price I think I'll pass.
The one I'm going for would need to run his best ever race to win the King George and the improvement needed could be a stone. I mentioned that I liked this horse last week and a couple of people suggested I was mad and that it had no chance.
This is what I would say. First of all I am going to bet the horse each-way and I'll be absolutely delighted to get 3rd place which may simply need the horse to run up to his normal level of form. Secondly it's possible that horses like Al Ferof, Vautour and Silviniaco Conti simply do not run up to their best form and that the race falls apart a little. I also think there is a chance that Cue Card, Smad Place and Conti ensure a huge gallop and that some animals are able to run on through the field with the race falling apart. In those circumstances just running to a normal level of form through beaten horses could do it. On top of all that you do have a chance that the horse will improve.
I'm talking about Irish Cavalier a very nice six year old trained by Rebecca Curtis who has a Cheltenham Festival win to his name and who has proved himself capable at this trip and on this ground. The horse won his re-appearance race of the year pretty easily but then ran a little poorly in the Paddy Power at Cheltenham at a time when the stable's horses were not running well. A problem with the hay was identified and in the last couple of weeks things have appeared to be right back on tracks with several winners. I definitely think we haven't seen the best of this one and he could be potentially very good. Several firms are giving 1/4 123 with 40/1 which means you are taking under the Betfair odds on the win but over on the place. You can also get 50/1 with 1/5th odds which is clearly better but it's just with one firm.
I'm having 8 Points each-way Irish Cavalier at 40/1 1/4 123 with Hills and Bet365 (or obviously 50/1 1/5th 123 with Paddy Power a firm that seem to have given up laying bets).
NFL Regular season: Write-Ups and analysis by Neil Channing
| NFL 2015 - Week 16 (27 - 28th December) | £25 Sign Up Here |
| NFL 2015 - Thursday Night Games - FREE Write Ups | Free Access Here |
| NFL 2015/16 Season (Ante Post, Outrights and Specials) | Free Access Here |
England Cricket Tour to South Africa (4 tests) (26th Dec - 27th Jan)
I have previewed the four test series, which begins on Boxing Day looking at outright and sub-markets. Coverage of the whole series is FREE
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All Brodders bets since January 2014 are currently showing a ROI of +2.37% (over 1600 bets) (at 2nd November 2015)
Betting £10 a point would be showing a profit of +£4787
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Please open an account with all those bookmakers on the page on this link that you do not already have an account with using the links provided.
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
£10 per point on every recommended bet since launch in Feb 2013 would be winning £11,291 (as at 2nd November 2015)
All bets have an ROI +2.48% and Horse Racing has an ROI +6.35%
There is also a Frequently Asked Questions Section
The Road to Riches: Weekend 19th-20th December
Coming Up this weekend
- Football, the Premier League continues with Monday night seeing one of the big games of the season, Arsenal v Manchester City. A new write up in 'Premier League Over/Under 2.5 Goal Analysis' has been published. Read it here
- NFL Week 15. Sign up for week 15 coverage here
- Racing, national hunt at Ascot, Haydock Park and Newcastle and on the all-weather at Lingfield Park
- Rugby Union European Champions Cup Pool matches continue, the reverse fixtures from last weekend.
PDC World Darts Championship (Dec 17th 2015 - Jan 3rd 2016)
Nigel Seeley is covering the PDC Darts World Championship for us. Access to the preview, to all the match analysis and details of all the bets that we are having is £50.
| £50 Sign up here | PDC World Darts Championship (Dec 17th 2015 - Jan 3rd 2016) |
Free Tips of the week by Neil Channing (3.35 Ascot The Ladbroke Hurdle)
I often find myself writing that the hardest race of a Saturday is easily the best betting race of the week and the one that offers the most value. Recently I haven't given too many winners in those races and some people might be asking that if these events are so great how come I don't back the winner every week. It's important to remember that these races are very competitive and we need to be careful of our staking but any time we get a chance to bet each-way with five places on a handicap of 16-24 runners we are definitely getting massive value on the place bet and that means we can very happily take slightly under the exchange win price for our selections. To counter the variance we can easily bet several selections in each race and we can be confident we will have good bets. None of this makes betting the winner easy.
I'm having two each-way bets in the Ladbroke Hurdle at Ascot. There are 21 runners here and several firms offer 5 places on each-way bets. Two stables I really like are Dan Skelton and Harry Fry, both of whom worked as assistants to the great Paul Nicholls. Last year I felt that Harry was suffering a little possibly with a virus issue and I have been betting a lot of his horses this year on the basis that they may well be well handicapped now and they could be under bet. He has done really well in recent weeks though so perhaps the market is now catching up. He has favourite Jolly's Cracked it here and this one ran 3rd here on his debut when perhaps not at his absolute peak. I think he'll be ready for this, he se, the stable are flying and I love the chance of him being in the frame.
Dan Skelton's horses have tended to go off fairly short but he has two here and the bigger price makes Hurricane Hollow more attractive. Bridget Andrew rides and not only is she excellent but she also takes a nice few pounds off. The horse would not want really soft ground but he'll love the drop down in trip.
I'm having 6 Points each-way Jolly's Cracked It 1/4 12345 at 5/1 with Betfair Sportsbook (and obviously at 11/2 12345 with Sky Bet).
I'm having 7 Points each-way Hurricane Hollow 1/4 12345 at 16/1 with Sky Bet and Betfair Sportsbook.
Euro 2016 draw
The Euro 2016 draw took place last weekend Saturday evening for the tournament in France starts 10th June.
The format of competition, expanded to 24 teams, sees six groups of four, each seeded into four pots, The top two in each group and four best third placed teams qualify for an extra knockout round, the last 16. meaning only eight teams are eliminated in the group stages.
The groups drawn were as follows:
Group A: France, Albania, Romania, Switzerland.
Group B: England, Wales, Slovakia, Russia.
Group C: Germany, Northern Ireland, Poland, Ukraine.
Group D: Spain, Turkey, Czech Republic, Croatia.
Group E: Belgium, Republic of Ireland, Sweden, Italy.
Group F: Portugal, Iceland, Hungary, Austria.
The opening game sees France play Romania on the 10th June. Wales, in their first finals in 58 years, drew England (Lens 16th June) and Northern Ireland were placed in a tough group with Germany and Poland.
Due to the competition format, simulations in the following report
http://www.scribd.com/doc/290626039/EURO-2016-The-Group-E-effect
have shown that teams from Group E have an approximately 28% lower chance of reaching the final than teams from group A.
With placings for the last sixteen already decided, this is because according to the report linked above
“1. The winners of group A, B, C and D get to face third-placed teams, when the winners of group E and F move on to face runner-ups (A clear disadvantage)
2. The runner-ups of group A, B, C and F get to face other runner-ups, when the runner-ups of group D and E move on to face winners (A clear disadvantage).
3. This would in theory mean that teams that qualify from Group E already have a lower probability of reaching the quarter-final just by getting drawn into group E. For group D and F this means that they will have a higher probability than the teams from group E, but a lower probability than the ones from group A, B or C”
The best odds available outright at the time of writing, six months in advance of the event, are as follows
Germany 100-30 (generally available)
France 7-2 (Betfair Sportsbook)
Spain 11-2 (generally available)
Belgium 12-1 (generally available)
England 12-1 (generally available)
Italy 20-1 (Bet365)
Portugal 20-1 (Coral)
Croatia 33-1 (Bet365)
Austria 40-1 (generally available)
Switzerland 66-1 (BetVictor)
Poland 80-1 (skybet)
France, with one of the softer looking groups and as hosts went joint favourites must after the draw whilst Group E is a very tough draw for all sides, and in addition the format penalises Group E teams and this does not bode well for two teams in the top six of the betting, Belgium and Italy. England, drawn into Group B and the slightly easier top half of the draw were 14-1 and have come into a couple of pointsin the week since the draw
In the group betting, three of the six groups have odds-on favourites, A: France 1/2 C Germany 1/2 and D Spain 4/6. Favourites for the other groups are B England 11/10 E Belgium 13/10, reflecting the draw against the top second seed Italy and F Portugal 6/5, probably the weakest top seed
Please look out for tournament coverage from the Betting Emporium team both ante-post and during the tournament next summer.
NFL Regular season: Write-Ups and analysis by Neil Channing
| NFL 2015 - Week 15 (19th-21st December) | £25 Sign Up Here |
| NFL 2015 - Thursday Night Games - FREE Write Ups | Free Access Here |
| NFL 2015/16 Season (Ante Post, Outrights and Specials) | Free Access Here |
Sign up to Brodders' tips:
All Brodders bets since January 2014 are currently showing a ROI of +2.37% (over 1600 bets) (at 2nd November 2015)
Betting £10 a point would be showing a profit of +£4787
Subscription to Brodders' write ups, analysis and bets is £50 a month. You can join at any time
Subscribe here
Bookmaker reviews and advice
Getting the best price available is very important for all those who take their betting seriously.
Please open an account with all those bookmakers on the page on this link that you do not already have an account with using the links provided.
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
£10 per point on every recommended bet since launch in Feb 2013 would be winning £11,291 (as at 2nd November 2015)
All bets have an ROI +2.48% and Horse Racing has an ROI +6.35%
There is also a Frequently Asked Questions Section
