Weekly Articles "Road to Riches" by Rich 'Tighty' Prew
The Road to Riches: Weekend of 21st-22nd May
Coming Up this weekend
- Football, the FA Cup final between Manchester United and Crystal Palace at Wembley and pre-Euro 2016 warm ups begin with England v Turkey in Manchester on Sunday
- Racing, the Irish 1000/2000 Guineas at the Curragh. In the UK flat meetings at Haydock, Newmarket, Chepstow , York and Goodwood and Stratford-on-avon over the jumps
- Tennis, the last tournaments before the French Open, ATP Geneva and ATP Cote D'Azur in Nice
- Golf, USPGA AT+T Byron Nelson at TPC Las Colinas and on the European Tour the Irish Open at the K Club
- Cricket. the First test England v Sri Lanka at Headingley continues, and the final weekend of IPL9 Group matches
- Rugby Union, the Aviva Premiership semi-finals Saracens v Leicester and Exeter Chiefs v Wasps
French Tennis Open (Roland Garros) 22nd May - 5th June
The outright previews will be published tomorrow following today's draw
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French Tennis Open (Roland Garros) (22nd May - 5th June 2016) |
The package by Nigel Seeley includes the outrights, all the analysis and details of all the bets that we are having on the French Open Tennis. His 2015 French Open had a spectacular +43% ROI and he is a long term winner. If you had bet £10 a point on all of Nigel's tennis bets you would be winning £1412.
Royal Ascot Full Package 14th-18th June
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Royal Ascot (Full Package) 14th - 18th June 2016 |
Includes all of Neil's race analysis and write ups as well as details of all the bets we are having at this year's Royal Ascot.
Free Tip
The 2016 Nat West T20 Blast: Ante Post
The English domestic T20 competition starts once again this Friday, with group games running through to the end of July and finals day at Edgbaston on 20th August. Compared to the glitz and glamour assoicated with the T20 game worldwide, notably in the IPL and Australia's Big Bash, the T20 Blast is often more prosaic fayre with typical problems in weather and scheduling meaning it sometimes doesn't catch the imagination though these days, with the likes of Brendon McCullum, Chris Gayle, Aaron Finch and emerging talents like Mustafizur Rahman in the ranks of overseas players after the IPL finishes there is some star quality associated with the competition.
This column has had some success in 2014 and 2015 in the T20 Blast and I am going to once again try to find some value for us to follow through the summer. Firstly a quick reminder of the format
Teams are initially split into 2 divisions (North and South), each containing 9 teams, for the group stage of the competition. During the group stage (from May to July) each club plays 6 of the other teams in the same division twice, once at their home stadium and once at that of their opponents. They play the other two teams only once, for a total of 14 games each. Teams are ranked by total points, then net run rate. At the end of the group stage, the top four teams from each group enter the knockout stage.
So this is an 18 runner field. Looking at the head of the betting, we see some familiar names none of whom i would be surprised to see at Finals day
Notts 7-1
Surrey 7-1
Yorkshire 8-1
Somerset 10-1
Hampshire 10-1
Birmingham 12-1
Middlesex 14-1
Essex 14-1
Lancs 14-1
Sussex 20-1
However this isn't an 18 runner field that many of the odds compilers will have a great deal of knowledge of the less fashionable teams, playing away from the first division of the four day game and the Test grounds. It is here that i am interested and I am particularly interested in the North group (teams shown in italics above) which only has 4 teams in the top ten in the betting and generally has less depth than the South division. In principle, being in the north group is an easier qualification route to the knockout stages and from there one win and finals day awaits.
We also have to consider that it is difficult for many counties, all operating within a salary cap limiting squad sizes, to fight on more than one front through the domestic season. We've seen this in the last couple of years with the best four day side in the country, Yorkshire. There is also a pecularity in division two of the county championship this year with only one team going up with a rebalancing of the competition next year. Fewer sides in division two are going to be prioritising the 4 day game when already Essex are well clear at the top of the table and more than a win clear of six of the nine sides.
Worcestershire have made the quarter-finals in three of the past four years, and were knocked out last year by Hampshire in a rain affected match. They are an extremely competitive side in the format. One of the smaller counties, away from the big city teams, they are deeply unfashionable and thus prime territory for value betting. They are priced up as 17th of the 18 sides in this competition at 33-1. This is simply wrong because the talent in the side gives them much better prospects than that price implies. You might not have heard of Joe Clarke and Ross Whiteley for example but you would have done if they played for bigger teams. Whiteley in particular is one of the brighest T20 talents in the English game, a big hitting batsman who is a real match-winner.
For the overseas player Worcestershire have the New Zealand spinner Mitchell Santner, who went so well in the World T20 in March finishing joint top wicket taker. Now of course Worcester in May isn't the same as a cracked pitch in Nagpur but it is still a shrewd signing.
5 points Each way Worcestershire to win the Nat West T20 Blast 28/1 Sportingbet (1/2 1,2) 25/1 generally
(33-1 win only in a couple of smaller places)
For the final time...
I had hestitated to add to the reams of columns that have sought to analyse the Premier League victory of the side i support, Leicester City, this season. After all, what else is there to be said, i thought to myself? However I cannot resist.
Writing a couple of days after the final games of the season the bare numbers speak to a convincing league win:
In the 23 years of the Premier League only 3 teams have lost fewer games than Leicester did in 2015-16 (Arsenal's invincibles 0 in 03-04, Chelsea 1 in 04-05 and Liverpool 2 in 08-09). Only four previous champions have won the title by a greater margin of points than Leicester's ten point margin this season.
Yet no one is going to claim this was a vintage Premier League season in terms of quality, notwithstanding the excitement and rarity of the result for part of the East Midlands and many neutrals and the (temporary, possibly) breaking of the link between finance off the pitch and success on it.
Many of the columns have sought to back-fit the title win and attribute a good portion of the season to luck, randomness and variance. Undoubtedly there are factors that assist that type of analysis:
- An unusual simultaneous down year for the big sides, from Chelsea's calamitous first half of the season, United's problems under Van Gaal, City's inconsistencies under Pellegrini and Arsenal once more flattering to deceive
- An unusual absence of injuries for Leicester, leading to very limited need for rotation and only 30 changes to the starting XI across the 38 games (last year, Chelsea 89)
- Unexpectedly low shot on target conversion from Leicester's opponent's throughout the season, which from an analytical community viewpoint always gave the underdog's charge to the title an air of unsustainability. I myself was in this camp somewhat and wrote several times about a forthcoming reversion to the mean that never happened.
Over and above these factors though, having seen a majority of matches in person, the skill shown in various areas has gone a long way to causing the surprise result
- Tactically, Ranieri was far shrewder than many realised. The result was that a side that had 42.7% of possession across the season won the title. The trigger here was the 5-2 home defeat to Arsenal, following which game Ranieri changed both full backs. One was loaned out to a championship side and the other didn't play the position the rest of the season. In came Simpson and Fuchs who defended first and defended narrow and added with the combination of Kante and Drinkwater protecting the central areas made the side hugely difficult to break down.
- In terms of recruitment the palpable hits of attracting three of the performers of the season Mahrez, Kante and Vardy for a combined £7m, playing at Champions league type levels all season, helped level the playing field dramatically (as did similar recruitment elsewhere eg Payet/West Ham)
- Finally its impossible to quantify the effect but the back room resources put into sports science, nutrition, psychology (the team employs a sports psychologist) and analytics (each player is presented on a Monday with a file onto an ipad with each of their contributions on and off the ball in the last match, contributions of their next opponent's over the last three matches etc) appeared to convey an element of competitive advantage.
In addition with only one exception, Klopp at Anfield just after Christmas (Liverpool double marked Mahrez and defended deep) opposing coaches were extremely slow to react to what they were encountering. It was only from March onwards that sides appeared to specifically set up to limit the effect of Leicester in transition/on the counter. At which point Leicester began winning games narrowly (in part because the defensive frailties of the early season had been addressed) and with different types of goals (often set-pieces)
Next year of course things will be different. Extra games for starters, extra tactical attention from the opposition is likely too and the squad may not remain together. Of course the arrival of Guardiola, Conte and possibly the return of Mourinho into the league together with the advent of the new TV deal and the huge sums likely to be bandied around by these sides in the transfer market could well see a re-assertion of dominance by the "big four" or "big six" as we'll have to add Spurs and Liverpool into the mix.
I prefer the angle of one judge I respect who referred to future Premier League seasons as in a betting context representing a "particularly tricky each way handicap to solve" because every side in the league is going to have TV deal based revenues of £120m+ from next year, all are going to be in the top thirty richest clubs in Europe and new talent into the league is going to be dispersed across the vast majority of teams compared to the biggest teams of a few years ago hoovering up all the top talent.
Whilst that doesn't necessarily mean we should all be tucking away 1000-1 betting slips on Sunderland for 2016-17, it probably does point to Premier League betting, both weekly and ante-post, being a higher variance activity than it was in the years of big team dominance from 2003-15.
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Euro & other Football by Brodders (monthly) |
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Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
£10 per point on every recommended bet since launch in Feb 2013 would be winning £21,602 (as at 15th May 2016)
All bets have an ROI +3.62% and Horse Racing has an ROI +5.25%
A £4000 bank (see FAQ re bank-roll requirements) betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £25,602 a 540% increase
The Road to Riches: Weekend of 14th-15th May
Coming Up this weekend
- Football, the final weekend of the Premier League season including Chelsea v Leicester Cty and the first leg of the football league play off semi finals. The latest Premier League Statistical Analysis write up has been published here
- Racing, Flat meetings at Doncaster, Newbury, Thirsk and Newmarket and Bangor-on-dee and Uttoxeter over the jumps.
- Formula One, the Spanish Grand Prix in Barcelona
- Rugby Union, the European Champions Cup Final between Saracens and Racing 92 in Lyon
- Tennis, the run up to the French Open continues with ATP BNL D'Italia in Rome, ATP Geneva Open and ATP Open De Nice in the South of France
- Golf, USPGA The Players Championship at TPC Sawgrass and on the European Tour the Mauritius Open.
- Cricket. IPL 9 group stage games continue
French Tennis Open (Roland Garros) 22nd May - 5th June
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French Tennis Open (Roland Garros) (22nd May - 5th June 2016) |
The package by Nigel Seeley includes the outrights, all the analysis and details of all the bets that we are having on the French Open Tennis. If you had bet £10 a point on all of Nigel's tennis bets you would be winning £1412.
Royal Ascot Full Package 14th-18th June
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Royal Ascot (Full Package) 14th - 18th June 2016 |
Includes all of Neil's race analysis and write ups as well as details of all the bets we are having at this year's Royal Ascot.
Free Tip
European Champions Cup Final Sat 14th May 3.45pm SkySports2
Saracens v Racing 92
Saturday sees the culmination of the European rugby season with the ERCC final in Lyon.
Saracens, the strongest side in England for several years have won all eight games in this year’s European Champions cup, beating Northampton and Wasps in the knockout stages on the way to this final.Saracens have been irresistible all year, reaching 80 Aviva Premiership points in a season disrupted by the World Cup. Bar one disjointed half in the quarter-final, European performances have possibly been even more impressive.
Racing lie fourth in the French top 14 and beat holders Toulon in the quarter-final then Leicester at Nottingham in the semi. They have one of the largest playing budgets in Europe and a squad that includes a dozen players brought in from overseas with particular quality from the Suthern Hemisphere.
Saracens lost to Toulon in the European final in 2014 and to Clermont in the semi final last year. No English side has won the trophy since 2006-07 with four Irish and four French winners since and despite the advantages of their playing and financial resources the Premiership has really struggled to perform in European competition particularly compared to the all-star French sides, with predictable game plans and a focus on conservatism rife in the English top division.
That has really changed this season, in some respects mirroring the different approach of the national team since the World cup due to much more ambitious game plans, and advantages in squad sizes and fitness backing up the more expansive strategies. This resulted in five of the eight quarter finalists being English teams, the other three French
Saracens have all bases covered. They can win in the backs or forwards. Up front the superb second row partnership of Itoje and Kruis anchors the pack and Billy Vunipola gives them the go forward.. If the conditions and game flow dictate a territory based game there are few better than Owen Farrell, the top scorer in this year's competition with 106 points. When looking to be expansive the likes of Chris Ashton, a prolific try scorer in European rugby with 11 clean breaks and 4 tries in this year's competition, and Alex Goode provide the cutting edge
Racing92 are formidable opponents though. Firstly this game is in France and French teams tend to play better at home than they do overseas. They have all of the resources you would expect from a leading Top14 side. Notably of course amongst these is Dan Carter, a World Cup winner who won four Super Rugby titles with Crusaders and joined Racing after the recent world cup. He has provided that extra organisation and game management to take Racing to that next step. This is no partially interested hired hand either. In the semi final against Leicester, the English team repeatedly charged down his channel only to be met with 16 tackles, the second highest count in the game. With fellow New Zealanders Chris Masoe (signed from Toulon and playing his third consecutive final), Joe Rococoko and Argentine wing and World Cup star Juan Imhoff lining up too, this is a team to be reckoned with.
Both sides have excellent defences, both sides are going to kick almost all if not all of their penalties and Saracens will I think look to avoid getting bogged down in a direct confrontation and will look to move Racing92 around. As a team with the experience of getting close, but now more rounded than they were, I think they’ll win if they execute well. They’ve more chance of doing this now than they had in 2014 when in experience terms they were far more callow.
Whilst prices just over Evens might not make this the most exciting bet in the world, they are priced as underdogs which I don't really agree with. I do expect this to be a one score game and it could well be extremely close for a long way. I can’t resist the 20-1 around on the draw either.
15 points Saracens to win the European Champions Cup Final 6/5 PaddyPower (2.18 on Betfair, 11/10 Skybet )
3 points the draw 20-1 Skybet , Betfred
Testing, Testing
After a winter in which England beat South Africa away in a Test series and reached the World T20 final in India their International summer begins next week with the first of three Test Matches against Sri Lanka, ahead of a four test series against Pakistan later in the summer and a five test series in India this winter
The schedule for the Sri Lanka tests is as follows
19-23 May First Test Headingley
27-31 May Second Test, Durham
9-13 June Third Test, Lords
In many respects England are a settled team and against Sri Lanka, opponents in rebuilding mode will be expected to win comfortably. Indeed they are 1/6 to win the series and 8/15 to win the first test. It is a series that weather permitting they should be winning 2-0 or 3-0 (both of which are priced at 2-1 in the correct score market, 6-1 bar these two results), in preparation for a fiercer examination against the Pakistani quicks later in the summer
This week England's squad for the Headingley test was announced. The spine of the team is as expected and makes England a strong side: Cook, Root and Bairstow (with Buttler at the IPL) in the top six, Stokes and Ali as bowling all-rounders and Broad and Anderson as opening bowlers. Anderson has been hinting at a timeframe for retirement but injury aside these seven players will be seen throughout this English summer.
Beyond the "core" players the selectors had trickier decisions in the remainder of the squad. Conservatively, they have decided to stick with Hales as Cook's opening partner and Compton at number 3. Hales was unconvincing in the role in South Africa scoring just 136 runs at an average of 17 and Compton has no form in this early summer, a top score of 44 in six innings. Replacing the unfortunately now retired James Taylor Hampshire's James Vince steps up from captaincy of the A side to take his place in the middle order
In the bowling ranks Finn is fit again and should make the starting XI ahead of Nottinghamshire's Jake Ball, a seamer very impressive so far this season with 19 wickets in the county championship. A bowling line up of Broad, Anderson, Finn, Stokes and Ali will expect to have a field day against the Sri Lankan top order.
I wouldn't be that confident that Hales, Compton and Vince in particular would make it through the summer in the Test side, whilst injury and rotation is always likely in the bowling ranks.
The selectors have many options in the batting department from recalling Bell or Ballance if they hit form. Sam Robson is also in great form. Perhaps more likely is that they will begin to blood some of the exciting young talent around the domestic game, names like Westley, Browne, Abell and Bell-Drummond are all knocking on the door for places in the top three and series against Sri Lanka and Pakistan are as good a chance as any to pick them and have them ready for higher profile series in 2017 and 2018.
In 2014 Sri Lanka toured England in the early summer slot and won the series. It was the last hurrah for a hugely talented team that since has had to cope with the retirement of all time greats Kumar Sangakkara, Mahela Jayawardene and Tillekeratne Dilshan.
This time round, the batting line up will rely on captain Angelo Mathews first and foremost, who averages over 50 in 56 tests and 61 as captain and who won a test with 160 at Leeds on the last tour. He will be supported by Dinesh Chandimal in the middle order and the opening pair of Kaushal Silva and Dimuth Karunaratne who have the experience of the 2014 tour under their belts.
The Bowling attack too is inexperienced. The touring squad only includes two spinners, and it’s difficult to see combinations of their six seamers out-bowling Broad, Anderson and co. Furthermore the most experienced bowler Dhammika Prasad, 5 for 50 in the Headingley test last time, broke down in the warm-up match with Essex this week
Main betting markets don’t offer us much for this series. I’ll be looking at sub-markets when they go up to find some value. My thoughts refer back to comments above.
Of the top order I am only confident that Cook, Root and Bairstow will play all three games in this series. I'd normally back Root in any series around the 3-1 mark such is his class and record but here I will be looking at whichever of Cook and Root is the higher price. Cook is in great form and should make hay here
In the bowling ranks this should be a match between Broad and Anderson, with Finn's injury record always an issue. Although english pitches have been (too) good so far this summer, its stretching it to think that Moeen Ali will get too many chances to be amongst the wickets before the seamers are and Stokes is a bowler who takes wickets in clusters rather than consistently during a series. Broad and Anderson should be around 11/4 joint favourites, I'll probably take whichever offers marginal value over the other.
Brodders Football Analysis
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Euro & other Football by Brodders (monthly) |
- Betting £10 a point would be showing a profit of + £4096.70
- Long Term Profit - All Brodders bets since January 2014 are currently showing a ROI of +1.59% (over 2000 bets) (at 15th April 2016)
Bookmaker reviews and advice
Getting the best price available is very important for all those who take their betting seriously.
Please open an account with all those bookmakers on the page on this link that you do not already have an account with using the links provided.
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
£10 per point on every recommended bet since launch in Feb 2013 would be winning £13,968.70 (as at 15th April 2016)
All bets have an ROI +2.44% and Horse Racing has an ROI +4.85%
A £4000 bank (see FAQ re bank-roll requirements) betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £17,968.70 a 349% increase
The Road to Riches Weekend of 7th-8th May
Coming Up this weekend
- Football, a full schedule in the Premier League including Leicester City v Everton and Tottenham v Southampton. The latest Premier League Statistical Analysis write up has been published here
- Racing, a mixed meeting at Haydock. On the flat Nottingham, Ascot, Lingfield and Thirsk. National hunt meetings at Hexham and Warwick
- Tennis, ATP and WTP Madrid Open
- Golf, USPGA Wells Fargo Campionship and on the European Tour Trophee Hassan II in Morocco
- Cricket. IPL 9 group stage games continue
French Tennis Open (Roland Garros) 22nd May - 5th June
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French Tennis Open (Roland Garros) (22nd May - 5th June 2016) |
£50 Sign Up Here |
The package by Nigel Seeley includes the outrights, all the analysis and details of all the bets that we are having on the French Open Tennis. If you had bet £10 a point on all of Nigel's tennis bets you would be winning £1412.
Royal Ascot Full Package 14th-18th June
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Royal Ascot (Full Package) 14th - 18th June 2016 |
£199.99 Sign Up Here |
Includes all of Neil's race analysis and write ups as well as details of all the bets we are having at this year's Royal Ascot.
Free Tip
Super Rugby Sharks v Hurricanes, Saturday 7th May, Durban, (kick off 2pm SkySports 4)
This is only the fourth home game of the season for the Sharks who beat Los Jaguares 19-15 at Kings Park back in Round 2 but went down to the Crusaders (19-14) and the Lions (24-9) in subsequent home games. They return home after a three match tour of New Zealand which started with a narrow defeat at the Blues (23-18), peaked with a 15-14 win at the Highlanders and ended last week with a 24-22 loss at the table topping Chiefs. Getting at least bonus points (and losing by no more than five points) out of all four games against the NZ sides so far this season, even if only winning one of the games, is some achievement.
The Sharks are currently outside the play-off spots in the South African group. This has been inevitable all season because of a quirk of the frankly baffling new Super Rugby conference system that this year has seen the Stormers and Bulls scheduled against beatable Australian franchises and the Sharks (and Lions) have to play all five New Zealand teams, three away from home. Their schedule eases from here and they need to put a consistent run together to make the post season. Meanwhile in a play-off spot in the Australasian group, the Hurricanes currently have the 3rd best record of the 5 New Zealand teams.
The Hurricanes handed out a 50-17 beating to the Lions in Johannesburg last week, running in 7 tries and conceding 3. They now have 6 wins and 3 defeats but they have won 6 of the last 7 and 5 of those wins were accompanied by bonus points. This though has been the soft part of their schedule, with wins against non-play off contenders. Playing the Sharks in Durban is a completely different proposition to sticking 40-50 points on teams like the Western Force, Jaguares, Kings and Lions with three of the games in Wellington.
This should be a very close game yet the visitors have been installed as 8/11 favourites with the Sharks 6/4. At worst i would have this as a 50-50 game, considering the Sharks have been running all the New Zealand teams close away from home and the Hurricanes lack some of the structure and power of those sides. The Sharks are a very strong defensive team, and will play territory to try to stifle the Hurricanes attacking threat.
I like the Sharks to win this, outright (+4 on the handicap if you prefer)
15 points Sharks to beat the Hurricanes 8/5 William Hill (down to 11/8 is fine elsewhere)
When Sport becomes a soap opera.
The NFL Draft each April is the culmination of a year long process of NFL franchises scouting players about to leave college before selecting talent to restock their rosters ahead of the new season. Over the years the draft itself has become big business, with an industry of analysts opining over the selections both before, during and after the draft. Draft night itself is televised nationally, and now in the UK too
This year's first round last Thursday night was a dramatic one, even by the NFL’s standards. A few weeks ago the offensive tackle Laremy Tunsil was the consensus number one pick, likely to be drafted by the Tennessee Titans to protect their quarterback Marcus Mariota. Then, with an eye on rebuilding they traded the pick for a number of draft selections to the Rams, in need of a star young quarterback and the industry immediately began to speculate about who might Tunsil, with San Diego at 3 the favourite.
On the day of the draft itself, always littered with mis-information and leaks, the suggestion was that the Chargers would draft Ronnie Stanley at the same position ahead of Tunsil. Checking the thin UK betting markets that afternoon, I noted Tunsil was still 1/8 to be the first Offensive tackle drafted
13 minutes before the draft on Tunsil’s Twitter account a video was posted showing a large man with a huge black gas mask over his head with a bong attached to the end. He is seen adjusting a valve on the right side. There is a little cup attached to the bong that appears to contain a substance that is burning. Then there is smoke everywhere before the man takes the mask off his face and smiles. Tunsil admitted in an ESPN interview that the man in the video was him. Companies do video job interviews all the time. This is not what Tunsil had in mind to make a final impression on NFL teams, appearing to be inhaling something he shouldn’t have been inhaling.
He claims his Twitter account was hacked. “We’re going to try to find out who did it,” he said.
Tunsil gets credit because he didn’t try to talk his way out of it and claim it wasn’t him. He was also telling the truth about getting hacked – his Instagram was apparently hacked after the draft as well, showing alleged text message between Tunsil and a college staff member in which the player requested money.
Ultimately, thanks to bad decisions and the ugly side of social media.one man’s pain and frustration played out before a viewing audience of millions as Tunsil was one of thirty players invited by the NFL to attend the draft in Chicago and as each draft pick passed the camera would pan to Tunsil. Eventually Tunsil became the third offensive tackle drafted, by the Miami Dolphins at pick 13
Tunsil was already carrying some baggage coming into this draft but until the Twitter post, he was a top five pick for sure. Tunsil had already forced teams to do extensive background checks. He and his stepfather Lindsey Miller filed domestic violence charges against each other last year that were eventually dropped. He was also suspended the first seven games last season after the NCAA penalised him for receiving improper benefits.
Tunsil is not the first player to drop so far because of pre-draft drug stories. It happened to Warren Sapp in 1995 and it happened to Dan Marino in 1983. They both went on to have Hall of Fame careers
For now according to SportRac, Jared Goff, the No. 1 pick, is projected to receive a contract worth more than $25 million. The deal for a No. 13 pick will be roughly $12 million. Tunsil may indeed be a big success, on talent alone he would be. For him and the Dolphins though given the various situations he is dealing with, the stakes are high.
Brodders Football Analysis
Sign up to Brodders match analysis and recommended bets here for £50 a month. You are free to cancel at any time.
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Euro & other Football by Brodders (monthly) |
- Betting £10 a point would be showing a profit of + £4096.70
- Long Term Profit - All Brodders bets since January 2014 are currently showing a ROI of +1.59% (over 2000 bets) (at 15th April 2016)
Bookmaker reviews and advice
Getting the best price available is very important for all those who take their betting seriously.
Please open an account with all those bookmakers on the page on this link that you do not already have an account with using the links provided.
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
£10 per point on every recommended bet since launch in Feb 2013 would be winning £13,968.70 (as at 15th April 2016)
All bets have an ROI +2.44% and Horse Racing has an ROI +4.85%
A £4000 bank (see FAQ re bank-roll requirements) betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £17,968.70 a 349% increase
The Road to Riches: Weekend of 30th April - 1st May
Coming Up this weekend
- Football, a full schedule in the Premier League with Leicester City at Manchester United on Sunday and Tottenham at Chelsea on Monday night. The latest Premier League Statistical Analysis write up has been published here
- Snooker, the final stages of the 2016 World Championship at the Crucible in Sheffield.
- Racing, the first classics of the 2016 flat season with the 1000 and 2000 Guineas at Newmarket. Also flat meetings at Doncaster, Goodwood and Thirsk. Over the jumps at Hexham and Uttoxeter.
- Tennis, the BMW Open in Munich, the ATP Estoril Open in Portugal and the ATP Istanbul Open in Turkey
- Golf, on the European Tour the Volvo China Open and on the USPGA Tour the Zurich Classic of New Orleans at TPC Louisiana
- Formula One, the Russian Grand Prix at Sochi
- Cricket. IPL 9 group stage games continue
Premier League Darts (Feb 4th - May 19th 2016)
Weekly coverage by Nigel Seeley for the 2016 Premier League Darts.
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French Tennis Open (Roland Garros) (22nd May - 5th June 2016)
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Free Tip by Neil Channing:
The 1000 Guineas at Newmarket, 3.40pm Sunday
I decided I'd just look at Sunday's 1,000 Guineas this week. The 2,000 Guineas is certainly an interesting race and there are opportunities to have a +ev bet as it has a perfect "bad" each-way shape...a short-priced favourite that means anything you bet each-way at 1/4 odds gives you a really good place part of your bet.
Rather than get you all to have your accounts restricted I'll focus on trying to find a big-priced winner that hopefully the bookies will pay us while still smiling.
The favourite in the 1,000 Guineas is also trained by Aiden O'Brien. This one was impressive in winning the fillies mile and she seems to go on any ground and will stay. A worthy favourite but I'm not a fan of betting fillies at short prices when these animals are all developing at different rates and we are really guessing at which ones will have improved most.
Lumiere ran well in the Lowther Stakes and was impressive in the Chevely Park but she is a free-running filly who we've only seen over six furlongs and for me she'd be a big doubt to get home, definitely not an each-way bet and probably a decent place lay.
Ballydoyle was beaten just 3/4 length by her stablemate Minding over seven furlongs when she was 5/4 favourite. I can see the argument for saying the horses ought to be close again and she is solid each-way but I can't make a great case for her beating the favourite. she'd be a good bet at evens in a match with Lumiere.
Epsom Icon, Sharja Queen, Fireglow, Aljazzi and Blue Bayou are really not good enough to win at this class so I'll pass on them and that leaves me with eight possible horses to bet each-way. I'll take them one by one...
Midweek is trained by a woman I have the utmost respect for but the horse is so inexperienced and it's actual form is nowhere near good enough. Certainly wouldn't make for a good place bet.
Turret Rocks is held by Ballydoyle on her form in the Marcel Boussac and I can't see an excuse for her to reverse.
Illuminate was beaten by Lumiere in the Cheveley Park and then she ran poorly in the Breeders Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf. She had a lot of runs last year and I don't fancy her to improve enough.
Alice Springs is really the third string for Aiden O'Brien. She was beaten in the trial at Leopardstown and she doesn't look up to this.
The winner of that trial was Jet Setting but it was a heavy ground trial for a filly who was winning a median auction maiden the time before. I just don't get excited by her.
Nathra was 2nd to Minding in the Fillies Mile and she really franked the form by winning well in the Nell Gwyn over seven furlongs on this course. I think the form is very solid and I'm sure she'll run a race it's just the price that isn't that tempting.
I'm going to focus instead on the two fillies that were beaten in the Nell Gwynn. We know that act on the course, they both ran well there and they both appear to want this extra furlong and be happy on any ground. Most importantly though we get pretty decent prices.
Robanne is trained by William Knight who is having a good season and the filly has run three times. She was green when she won her maiden a little unexpectedly and then she was beaten a length and a half into 3rd in the Oh So Sharp Stakes looking like she wanted further. That was the impression I got again when she was 3rd behind Nathra in the Nell Gwynn. Looks sure to be running on and in the thick of it at the business end.
Mix and Mingle had a quiet run followed by a maiden win at even money followed by a valuable nursery win at Newbury as a two-year old. She then ran really well in the Nell Gwynn, coming from off the pace and looking like she wanted further. I suspect she might have the most improvement in her of the three from that race and I'll have a little more on her.
There is just a chance that a couple of bookies offer four places if we wait until Sunday but I still like the 1/4 odds with a shortish favourite and a few I can rule out even though we get just three places. I'm going to take the big prices now.
I'm having 4 Points each-way Robanne at 33/1 1/4 123 with Ladbrokes, Betfred, SkyBet and Bet365.
I'm having 5 Points each-way Mix and Mingle at 33/1 1/4 123 with Ladbrokes and Betfred (not struggling Hills who are clawing back the Cheltenham money by offering 1/5th odds).
When nothing seems to go your way....
Losing runs are a fact of everyone’s betting life and we have to come to terms with them. We’ve all been there and strategies for coping with downswings are essential both financially and emotionally.
Compared to when i first started betting experience has given me a more accepting attitude to the (inevitable) losing runs and reduced some of the poor strategies i was following.
1) Do your Due Diligence Beforehand
* Ensure that the edge of any strategy you are using has been demonstrated over a statistically significant number of bets before backing selections.
* Make sure that the bank you are using is large enough to more than weather the longest losing run you are likely to encounter. This is easy to calculate from your own personal ROI over the sports and types of bets you prefer..
* Never bet with money you cannot afford to lose. A losing run will have a far greater impact upon your psyche if you are relying on that money for something else.
* Keep your betting money entirely separate from your every day money.
* Lean towards strategies that suit your psychology. If you know you are the type of person who is likely to kick the cat and smash the television after half a dozen losers, concentrate your efforts on high strike rate strategies that are less likely to test you.
2) When the Losing Run Hits
* One professional identified that the fifteen minutes after a poorly judged bet or moment of misfortune is the most dangerous time for all punters. This is the time when we are all at risk of getting heated and all reasoning and rationale goes flying out the window as we seek to recoup the losses.
* Avoid time frames in betting, without daily targets or amounts to be won in a certain time period. Instead analyse results calmly away from the action dispassionately, away from the action
* Expect a losing run and how bad it is likely to get and keep detailed records of placed bets. When a losing run occurs you can analyse and revist past losing runs and only start to worry if you start to significanly exceed your longest losing run for a particular sport or strategy. There are a number of reasons for keeping accurate records but this is the most important of them
* Don't be afraid to stop. If you are not feeling confident that you are apply your methods consistently, just take a break. There is always the nagging fear that you will miss a winner that turns it all around but there will always, in the big picture, be a winner down the line.
* Realise that it is human nature to take recent events and extrapolate them into the future. This works both ways. If you’re on a winning streak, you are likely to start calculating future profits based on an abnormal run of results and vice versa. Always look at the bigger picture.
Brodders Football Analysis
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Euro & other Football by Brodders (monthly) |
- Betting £10 a point would be showing a profit of + £4096.70
- Long Term Profit - All Brodders bets since January 2014 are currently showing a ROI of +1.59% (over 2000 bets) (at 15th April 2016)
Bookmaker reviews and advice
Getting the best price available is very important for all those who take their betting seriously.
Please open an account with all those bookmakers on the page on this link that you do not already have an account with using the links provided.
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
£10 per point on every recommended bet since launch in Feb 2013 would be winning £13,968.70 (as at 15th April 2016)
All bets have an ROI +2.44% and Horse Racing has an ROI +4.85%
A £4000 bank (see FAQ re bank-roll requirements) betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £17,968.70 a 349% increase
The Road to Riches: Weekend of 23rd-24th April
Coming Up this weekend
- Football, a full schedule in the Premier League including Leicester v Swansea and Tottenham v West Brom as the title race intensifies and the FA Cup Semi Finals at Wembley. The latest Premier League Statistical Analysis write up has been published here
- Snooker, the 2016 World Championships continue at the Crucible in Sheffield
- Racing, the new flat season continues with meetings at Doncaster, Haydock, Ripon and Leicester with the end of the national hunt season at Sandown
- Tennis, ATP Barcelona and the ATP Nastase Tiriac Trophy in Bucharest
- Golf, USPGA The Valero Open at TPC San Antonio in Texas and on the European Tour the Shenzhen International in China
- Cricket. IPL 9 group stage games continue
- Rugby Union, European Champions Cup Semi-Finals
Premier League Darts (Feb 4th - May 19th 2016)
Weekly coverage by Nigel Seeley for the 2016 Premier League Darts.
The package costs £50. Sign Up here
French Tennis Open (Roland Garros) (22nd May - 5th June 2016)
Coverage by Nigel Seeley with outright previews as well as all write ups and match analysis
The package costs £50 Sign Up here
Free Tip by Neil Channing : The Bet365 Gold Cup Sandown, Saturday 4.10pm
The last day of the season should be pretty amazing and they'll be a lot of talk about Nicholls vs Mullins and the chance to see Richard Johnson finally getting his well-deserved title. For us though the most exciting thing is that some firms are giving five places in the race I still think of as the Whitbread.
I'm going to assume the going will get a bit quicker over the next 24 hours and I won't be focussing on horses that want a bit of cut in the ground like Bishops Road. I'll also avoid the beaten Grand National horses like Saint Are, Le Reve, The Druids Nephew, Hadrians Approach, Just a Par and Sir De Champs as it's so hard to peak again so soon for a big race, especially as that one was a really gruelling slog this year.
Theatre Guide is another one I'll rule out as he seems to have had a really long year. Measureofmydreams fell pretty early in the Scottish National so he ought to be fresh but he is another that would want softer ground. Henri Parry Morgan was a little unlucky to run into such a well-ridden opponent in Native River who jumped brilliantly that day but he is another that has had a long season and I'll avoid him.
I like the three of the sub-25/1 shots that I haven't mentioned so far.
Southfield Theatre is a horse that can definitely win. Paul Nicholls has kept the horse fresh for this after he was brought down in a handicap chase at the festival. He goes on any ground but there is a bit of a doubt about him staying this marathon trip and so at this price I'll reluctantly pass.
Regular readers know I am a huge fan of the Neil Mullholland stable and I can't really split his two here. The Young Master will be ridden by Sam Waley Cohen which isn't a massive plus but I don't see it as a negative either. The horse was dropped in the weights for a great run to be 3rd at the Festival and this one looked like he was staying on at the end. I can't see this one being out of contention here and I have to have a bet.
Carole's Destrier possibly found things happening a little quick at Cheltenham and he would certainly not mind a bit of rain, but I do think that this horse is way better when he goes right handed and he likes it here very much. The price is a bit more attractive so I'll make him a slightly bigger bet.
I'm having 6 Points each-way The Young Master at 8/1 1/4 12345 with Bet365 (it's 9/1 with Betfair Sportbook if you are one of the few that can get on but I'd always take a point lower to get an extra place where I can).
I'm having 7 Points each-way Carole’s Destrier at 10/1 1/4 12345 with Bet365 and Betfair Sportsbook
A look at the EU Referendum and Markets
There are just over 60 days to go until the EU Referendum on 23rd June answering the question "Should the United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union or leave the European Union?”
Eligible people can register to vote by midnight on Tuesday 7 June if they have not already done so.
The Betting Emporium team have discussed some potential betting opportunities already, and this is to set the scene for the next couple of months and given one early recommendation.
On the Leave side, “Vote Leave” won official designation over UKIP backed “Grassroots out”. On the other side, the decision was much more straightforward and “Britain Stronger in Europe” is the official Remain campaign. There are the perks that come with the official designation, with more funding, campaign broadcasts, free distribution of information to voters etc.
The government’s official position is for remaining in the EU and leaflets explaining why have been mailed to every household. The Conservative party is split on the issue, with several prominent members of Cameron’s cabinet backing Brexit. Meanwhile, most of the Labour party supports staying in, and Labour votes are one of the key groups the remain side needs to ensure victory given the euro-sceptism of the Tory rank and file.
Telephone polling points to a Remain lead. Online polls suggest a much closer contest, with several even giving Leave a slight edge. At the time of writing the latest phone poll (Comres) has 45-38-17 Remain/Leave/Don’t know whilst the latest Online poll (You Gov) has 40-39-21. This week four phone polls showed a widening Remain lead: ComRes 7% ICM 7% ORB 9%, IPSOS-Mori 10% making six successive polls to report moves to remain compared with their last surveys. It is postulated that the remain leaflet campaign has been in part behind the hardening of Remain numbers in recent surveys.
John Curtice, the Strathclyde University professor who oversaw last year’s accurate election exit poll, has recently said
"Some of the polls are definitely wrong. Until the divergence between online and telephone polls is explained, we are in a cloud of uncertainty and people should absolutely look at the polls sceptically."
There have been over 75 EU referendum polls since the beginning of September 2015. Three polls in April said that one in four British people did not know how they would vote and the current don't know block is around 15% taking the aggregate from all polls
The Betting Markets
In a Betfair market with over £6m matched, Remain is currently trading at 1.44 and Leave at 3.2 with fixed odds markets at 2/5 Remain 2/1 Leave. The range of probabilities for Remain in five leading crowd aggregation sites are 62-70%. The aggregation sites such as Altinis take information from exchanges and markets and combine it with polling forecasts to obtain crowd wisdom and assign probabilities to the outcomes.
Given the current lead in phone polling and the natural bias of the electorate against change as well as the obvious differences in organisation between the two camps, Remain looks to be a justifiable favourite.
Vote Share markets may offer more potential. Sporting Index have the line for Remain between 53-54% which appears consistent with an estimated probability of a win for ‘Remain’ at 2 in 3. A few bookmakers are currently offering “Remain Vote Percentage” Markets and 50-55% is 3.4 on Betfair and 1.54 over 52.5% 11/4.
Betfair also offers a third market, on referendum turn-out with 60-65% a 4.1 favourite ahead of 55-60% at 5.0. The latest ORB poll shows those who want the UK to remain in the EU are becoming more motivated to vote. This research shows that forecast turnout overall is up three points on their forecast to 67% but this is a market that is difficult to get a handle on at this stage.
Overall the view here is that Remain will continue to progress in polls, that a majority of the "don't knows" will break in favour of remain and that Corbyn's well received entry into the campaign will motivate Labour to come out and vote. As an alternative to taking 2/5 remain (shortening to 1/3 on Obama developments in the last 24 hours) we'd consider 55-60% Remain as looking interesting in the region of 4.8 to 5.2 on the exchange.
15 points Remain Vote Share 55-60% 4.8 Betfair
Brodders Football Analysis
Sign up to Brodders match analysis and recommended bets here for £50 a month. You are free to cancel at any time.
|
Euro & other Football by Brodders (monthly) |
- Betting £10 a point would be showing a profit of + £4096.70
- Long Term Profit - All Brodders bets since January 2014 are currently showing a ROI of +1.59% (over 2000 bets) (at 15th April 2016)
Bookmaker reviews and advice
Getting the best price available is very important for all those who take their betting seriously.
Please open an account with all those bookmakers on the page on this link that you do not already have an account with using the links provided.
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
£10 per point on every recommended bet since launch in Feb 2013 would be winning £13,968.70 (as at 15th April 2016)
All bets have an ROI +2.44% and Horse Racing has an ROI +4.85%
A £4000 bank (see FAQ re bank-roll requirements) betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £17,968.70 a 349% increase
