Weekly Articles "Road to Riches" by Rich 'Tighty' Prew
The Road to Riches: Weekend of 16th-17th July
Coming Up this weekend
- Football, No sooner have the Euros finished than the domestic season in Scotland is underway with League cup ties
- Racing, flat meetings at Lingfield, Haydock, Newmarket, Newbury and Ripon. Natinal hunt meetings at Cartmel and Market Rasen
- Golf, the conclusion of The Open Championship at Royal Troon
- Tennis, Davis Cup World group Quarter finals including Serbia v Great Britain. ATP Hall of Fame at Newport, Rhode Island, ATP Swedish Oen and ATP Hamburg
- Cricket, the first test between England and Pakistan at Lords continues
- Rugby Union, the final round of Group matches in Super Rugby ahead of the play-offs
The Qatar Goodwood Festival 26th-30th July
Coverage from Neil Channing of one of the racing highlights of the summer begins in under a fortnight
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US Open Tennis August 29th to September 11th by Nigel Seeley
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Free Tip
Super Rugby: Crusaders v Hurricanes, Saturday 16th July, Christchurch, KO 06:15 BST:
Super Rugby's Round 17 this weekend is the final slate of games before the Play offs.
Currently the four teams leading their conferences are the Chiefs, Brumbies and in South Africa the Stormers and Lions with the four wild card teams including three of the four remaining new Zealand teams (Crusaders, Hurricanes, Highlanders) and the Sharks from Durban. This weekend will see the play off order iconfirmed.
Saturday’s action starts early morning our time with a New Zealand Conference derby between the Crusaders and the Hurricanes (from Wellington) in Christchurch, in essence a play-off quality match between two good sides.
These two sides are the first of the four New Zealand franchises who have confirmed their play off spots in action this weekend. Only three points separate the four sides and Saturday will determine who will have home advantage in the play offs. Just two points separate the Crusaders and Hurricanes in the table and the winner of this contest will earn the higher seed in the finals and possibly finish top of the New Zealand conference.
The Crusaders ran in 13 tries in demolishing the Rebels last weekend but they have lost 3 of their 5 local derby matches this season, home and away to the Chiefs and also tasting defeat away to the Highlanders. The win kept the Crusaders within a point of the Hamilton-based Chiefs as the contest continues for first place in the New Zealand conference with one regular season round remaining.
The Hurricanes sealed their play off spot with a 28-17 victory over the Waratahs in Sydney last weekend. They have won 3 of 5 New Zealand derby matches with the defeats coming away at the Highlanders and at home to the Chiefs. No more than 10 points has settled all 5 of those local derby matches in the current campaign.
For the Hurricanes, a lot of the responsibility lands on the shoulders of fly-half Beauden Barrett. He has been crucial to their success all season and has continued to develop as a player and is a certain pick for the All Blacks squad. His pace and playmaking ability makes him a danger for any team.
The Crusaders are 4/7 and 5 point handicap favourites to win this match. I see very little between the two sides and think the 2/1 offered by William Hill (9/5 offered by Bet365 and sportingbet) on the Hurricanes to win here is a very interesting price.
10 points Hurricanes to beat the Crusaders 2/1 William Hill (9/5 Bet365 or sportingbet)
England-Pakistan Cricket Test Series.
Pakistan are in England for the second half of the summer and the four test series began this week:
Jul 14- Jul 18 First Test Lords
Jul 22 - Jul 26 Second Test Old Trafford
Aug 03 - Aug 07 Third Test Edgbaston
Aug 11 - Aug 15 Fourth Test, The Oval
Pakistan are likely to be a tougher proposition than Sri Lanka who went through their tour in the first half of the tour winless in all formats. Pakistan beat England 2-0 in the UAE test series last autumn in very different conditions than they will face in England clearly, but they have several world class players capable of causing the hosts problems.
Traditionally Pakistan aren’t the best tourists with team spirit often an issue and memories of the spot fixing disgrace on the last tour of England are fresh but this tour party is well prepared, having travelled over early and in warm up matches looked focussed and fitter than previously.
The test team relies on a few key individuals. Only four of the top six in the batting have experience in English conditions. They feature the current oldest test player in 42 year old captain Misbah Ul Haq, who on Thursday scored his eighth century as captain going past Inzamam for most Test hundreds by a Pakistan captain and Younus Khan (over 9000 test runs at 53) with support from Azhar Ali and Mohammed Hafeez and five of the top six have test averages of over 40
It is the bowling line up though that offers a real threat. Mohammed Amir is one of the best fast bowlers in the world, capable of swinging it both ways at pace and he is supported by Wahab Riaz and Rahat Ali with Imran Khan and Sohail Khan in reserve. Two spinners are in the tour party and one, Yasir Khan, is a very good leg spinner with 76 wickers in his 12 test matches to date about to play his first test match outside Asia. He will cause problems if better weather firms the pitches up for later in the series. For the series, Yasir at 7/2 looked a very decent bet as an alternative to a very short Amir (6/4) for top series Pakistan bowler.
England’s team for the first test had one clear issue to resolve in the absence of the out of form Compton and Gary Ballance has been selected Joe Root is batting at 3. Anderson is missing injured and there is no place for Buttler and Stokes. The fast development of Woakes in the seam bowling department in support of Broad becomes more important with Ball making his debut and Finn often inconsistent as on Thursday where he looked short of rhythm and confidence..
Looking at the betting markets just before the first test England were as short as 4/11 to win the four test series, the draw 5/1 and Pakistan available at 6/1. That’s understandable enough, England are a home team going well against opponents who haven’t performed well in England but it could well be closer series than those outright prices imply.
Not only do Pakistan have the world class players mentioned above but England have a particular vulnerability in their middle order. Cook and Root in the top three are clearly excellent but if Pakistan can get beyond them early the prospect of Ballance and Vince is nowhere near as daunting. England have displayed frequent issues with batting collapses in the last 18 months, often relying on the lower middle order to compile scores for them. England have been 100-3 or worse in 24 of their past 34 completed innings. Add in the absence of Anderson for the first test at least, and Pakistan's threatening bowling attack and it could be that the underdog comes firmly into play during this series.
For example Pakistan were 4/1 for the first test before the toss. Perhaps a team that is not the most reliable of betting propositions, but their talent belies their odds in what should be a competitive series.
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Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
£10 per point on every recommended bet since launch in Feb 2013 would be winning £25,350 (as at 20th June 2016)
All bets have an ROI +4.08% and Horse Racing has a ROI of +7.7%
A £4000 bank (see FAQ re bank-roll requirements) betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £29,350.50 a 633% increase
The Road to Riches Weekend of 9th-10th July
Coming Up this weekend
- Football, The Euro 2016 between France and Portugal in Paris on Sunday
- Racing, flat meetings at Hamilton, Chester, Ascot, York, Newmarket and Salisbury
- Golf, USPGA The Greenbrier Classic and ahead of the Open Championship on the European Tour the Scottish Open from Castle Stuart
- Tennis, the final weekend of Wimbledon
- Formula One, the British Grand Prix at Silverstone.
Free Tip
The 2016 Open Championship returns to Royal Troon in Ayrshire, Scotland this year running next week from Thursday 14th July to Sunday 17th July 2016, featuring the most international field of the four Majors and 156 players.
The Open move from last year’s Old Course at St Andrews, where the true difficulty was primarily the fickle North Sea weather, to a purer links test on the Ayrshire coast. Famous for the aptly named 'Postage Stamp' 125 yard par-3, which is the shortest hole in Open Championship golf, the Old Course is set amongst sand hills and features some of thickest gorse/rough on the Open rota. If the prevailing north-westerly wind is unkind then Troon becomes a nasty challenge
The Old Course at Troon is seen by the professionals as a very fair links test. Since the course was toughened by converting it to a par 71 for the 1997 Open - won by Justin Leonard - the winning scores here have been -12/272 and -10/274. A relatively easy opening six holes is followed by a much tougher closing set of 12 holes. Intimidating tee shots, blind drives, deep gorse, the nearby beach and a very much in-play railway line make for an interesting test.
The R&A have recognised that the Old Course needed to be updated after a 12-year gap between Open visits Billy McLachlan, course manager at Royal Troon Golf Club.said
“We want a traditional links feel, Firm, fast and bouncy. That’s what we’re trying to target for at The Open, and at any time. We’re doing everything we can to get a linksy feel and if the weather goes with us, we will hopefully achieve it.”
“We held The Amateur in 2012 and it wasn’t very nice weather. It was wet and the ground was a bit soft. There was a deliberate decision made then to be more linksy. At that time, we were the softest of the Open Championship courses. We’re on line to where we want to be which is harder, faster and firmer.”
Well-directed power from the tee is a huge advantage. Hitting greens consistently is tough as the combination of wind, fast conditions and green complexes which repel approach shots creates a real ball-striking test. The difficulty of managing the course well from tee-to-green makes a top-class scrambling game 100% essential.
The last four open winners were in the world top 50, and only one of the last ten from outside the world’s top 100. Ten of the last sixteen Champions had won a tournament in the season prior to triumphing at The Open.
Rather than tip up a favourite in a tournament where it is 25/1 bar the top 4, Day, McIlroy, Dustin Johnson and Speith taking out 40% of the market, this column once again is looking for a live outsider.
Chris Wood from Bristol won the PGA at Wentworth in May which moved him into world top 25. One of the emerging European players, he now has four victories, three on the European tour It was his links record that I remembered when thinking about this week’s column.
He was low amateur at Birkdale 2008 finishing tied 5th overall then 3rd at Turnberry the year after. Overall he has played five Opens and has three top 25 finishes. He's finished in the top 10 in the last three Dunhill links too.
A very tall man he is a long controlled hitter and a really good ball striker. I spotted him again when finishing tied 23rd at the US Open at Oakmont recently. Opening with a 75 he then went round in the ultra-consistent 70, 71, 71 and followed this up with 11th at the French open last week
I spotted an interview in Golf digest in which he said
““I love the variety that comes with links golf. Think about it. You can walk onto the fringe of just about any green on a links, drop your ball anywhere and use any club in the bag to chip with. That’s the best part of golf for me. Links golf just gives me so many options. My imagination just goes off. It’s just so enjoyable. Far more than hitting lob wedge after lob wedge out of rough. I remember hitting 4-irons from 140-yards out at Birkdale during the 2008 Open. My Dad was caddying for me. The wind was strong but it was great fun”
When I was looking to a candidate for this column he struck me as one of the few players in that fast emerging group of British and Irish players where the price still gave us something to go at. For example Fitzpatrick was 80-1 for Oakmont and only 50-1 here. Shane Lowry was 125-1 at Oakmont now only 40-1 here. Danny Willett was 66/1 two majors ago, won it and is 33-1 here.
Wood I hope is the next player who we might not be seeing at 80 or 100-1 in majors too often in the future. He withdrew from this week's Scottish Open with a minor neck injury to be ready for Troon and his price, which i have been watching for a fortnight, has drifted a little as a result.
I am tipping here nearly a week in advance of the event and already we are seeing some firms go six places and you can be patient with the below recommendation and possibly see seven places in spots next week.
5 points each Way Chris Wood 100-1 (1/4 1,2,3,4,5,6) Betfred and several small firms, 80/1 generally
Rio Grand?
It is now under a month to the 2016 Summer Olympics (the XXXI Olympiad) in Rio an event for which planning has not gone smoothly with concerns about the Zika virus and various political and infrastructure problems leading up to the event. Over 10,000 competitors from 206 countries compete in 28 sports over 16 days beginning on August 5th.
The betting industry reported twenty-fold growth in turnover from 2008 to 2012 and, while part of that growth undoubtedly came about because of the interest in the London Olympics, it can be expected to grow again for Rio.Athletics is the blue riband event at any Olympics and will dominate the headlines and betting markets over the last 10 days of Rio 2016.
Athletics apart, the tennis competition will see the same kinds of sums traded as on any grand slam while the Under 23 football tournament will be popular too. The Introduction of Golf into the Olympics, notwithstanding the withdrawal of many of the highest profile players is likely to be of betting interest too with the format very similar to any PGA event.
Elsewhere, there will be betting interest in the cycling, rowing, swimming and boxing. However, if previous Olympics are a guide, markets will be relatively illiquid until the latter stages of events. They are more marginal sports from a betting perspective.
Looking ahead to the event PwC economists have stepped up to the starting blocks to produce benchmarks against which performance at the 2016 Olympics can be forecast.
A study found the following factors to be statistically significant in explaining the number of medals won by each country at previous Olympic Games:
- Size of economies (measured by GDP at purchasing power parity (PPP) exchange rates)
- Performance in the previous two Olympic Games
- Whether the country is host nation
In general, the number of medals won increases with the population and economic wealth of the country; but there are exceptions like Jamaica (sprinters) and Kenya (middle distance events) . Jamaica, for example, is projected to win 0.4 medals in Rio for every $bn of GDP, while the same ratio is only around 0.02 for the UK and around 0.005-0.006 for the US and China.
John Hawksworth, PwC chief economist, says:
“David can sometimes beat Goliath in the Olympic arena, although superpowers like the US and China continue to dominate the top of the medals table.
“Now it is no longer the host country, Great Britain may find it difficult to match its exceptional performance in London 2012 – though our model suggests it should remain as high as fourth in Rio with over 50 medals in total.”
“Competition remains strong, as other countries start to invest in elite sport as a way to raise their profile on the global stage, but since Great Britain has retained its very focused funding strategy, it should be possible to sustain the momentum of the last couple of Summer Olympics.”
In 2012 Great Britain won 65 medals including 29 golds and PWC currently expects 52 for Rio.
As host nations generally ‘punch above their weight’ at the Olympics, Brazil is predicted to fare well in Rio, despite the country’s recent economic problems. The model projects they could win 25 medals, up from 17 in London.
Among “special” markets offered in 2012 were which country would top the Medals table, with the US expected to be odds-on (but a good reliable odds on) for Rio. The US were the top nation in 2000, 2004 and 2012. Their only failing was in 2008 in Beijing, where home advantage clearly paid off for the Chinese stars who claimed 51 gold medals to America’s 36.
Having completed a clean sweep of gold medal wins at the last two Olympic Games in Beijing and London, where the Jamaican came in first in the 100m, 200m and 4x100m relay, Usain Bolt will be in Rio attempting to complete a triple hat-trick; the first of its kind in the event’s history.
He claimed a similar treble at the World Championships last August. He will face stiff competition though. Justin Gatlin is running some quick times including the fastest 100m in 2016 in the US trials last weekend
Bolt suffered a hamstring tear during the first round of Jamaica's senior trials in Kingston.
Bolt released a statement which read: "After feeling discomfort in my hamstring after the first round last night and then again in the semi-final tonight I was examined by the chief doctor of the National Championships and diagnosed with a grade-one tear.
"I have submitted a medical exemption to be excused from the 100m final and the remainder of the National Championships. I will seek treatment immediately and hope to show fitness at the London Anniversary Games on July 22 to earn selection for the Olympic Games in Rio."
The result of the injury was to move Bolt out to 4/9 favourite and Gatlin into 2/1
In terms of Great Britain’s Athletics team GB won 4 golds in London and individual event markets are up for Athletics Rio. Mo Farah is 1/3 to defend each of his 5000m and 10,000m titles. Jessica Ennis-Hill is 13/8 favourite to retain the heptathlon title and Greg Rutherford is 7/4 favourite to retain the Long jump title. Realistically there isn’t another British contender for a gold medal and over/under markets for British athletics golds should, when they come out settle around o/u 3.5.
Brodders Football Analysis ** Includes Euro 2016 Outright Preview and Game Coverage **
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Euro & other Football by Brodders (monthly) |
- Betting £10 a point would be showing a profit of + £11,592
- Long Term Profit - All Brodders bets since January 2014 are currently showing a ROI of +3.98% (over 2150 bets) (at 20th June 2016)
Bookmaker reviews and advice
Getting the best price available is very important for all those who take their betting seriously.
Please open an account with all those bookmakers on the page on this link that you do not already have an account with using the links provided.
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
£10 per point on every recommended bet since launch in Feb 2013 would be winning £25,350 (as at 20th June 2016)
All bets have an ROI +4.08% and Horse Racing has a ROI of +7.7%
A £4000 bank (see FAQ re bank-roll requirements) betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £29,350.50 a 633% increase
The Road to Riches Weekend of July 2nd-3rd
Coming Up this weekend
- Football, Euro 2016 Quarter finals. Germany v Italy on Saturday and France v Iceland on Sunday.
- Racing, flat meetings at Sandown including the Coral Eclipse Stakes, Beverley, Leicester, Carlisle, Nottingham and Haydock.
- Golf, the World Golf Championships- Bridgestone Invitational and the USPGA Barracuda Championships at Montreux GC and on the European Tour the French Open at Le Golf National in Paris
- Tennis, the middle weekend of Wimbledon
- Formula One, the Austrian Grand Prix in Spielberg.
UEFA Euro 2016 (10th June -10th July 2016)
We have incorporated the Euro 2016 coverage into the Brodders section. Betting £10 a point in June on Brodders' bets would have won you £2,945 (ROI +29.3%). You can still sign up, get the remaining Euro 2016 bets and then ongoing European football coverage into the new season and beyond. You can cancel at any time.
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Euros 2016 (full package) (Includes all Brodders write ups, plus outrights/ antepost) |
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More EURO 2016 details and a FREE tip.... |
Wimbledon 2016 (27th June – 10th July)
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Wimbledon 2016 (full package) |
Nigel Seeley is a long term winner on tennis with a proven three year record on Bettingemporium. The package includes all of Nigel's match analysis, write ups and details of the bets that we are having.
Free Tip Austrian Grand Prix, Sunday 1pm
This weekend the ninth race of the season takes the drivers to the Red Bull Ring and the 2016 Austrian Grand Prix following a facile win for Nico Rosberg in Baku, a weekend in which Lewis Hamilton once again found trouble.
Hamilton currently sits 24 points behind his team mate Rosberg in the drivers’ championship. The Frustration of Baku and the memories of his 2015 performance at Austria will be on Hamilton’s mind in the build up to Sundays’ race.
This is the third modern day Austrian Grand Prix with the previous two both won by Rosberg, last year in a Mercedes 1-2. Two of the three sectors of the track feature long straights with overtaking opportunities and it is only in the twisty last section that the field should be able to live with the Mercedes and its pre-eminent power unit. Mechanical problems aside, a Mercedes 1-2 in qualifying when the engine mode really gets ramped up, is extremely likely.
Behind Mercedes both Red Bull and Ferrari have shown signs of being closer to the very front of the field in recent races primarily on street circuits. It may be tougher on the power tracks coming up here and at Silverstone to challenge for victories. I would expect a sixth win for Rosberg this weekend and he is priced second favourite to Hamilton, 7/4 against 5/4, 7/1 bar the front two.
Another market I am interested in is top 6 finish. All six drivers in the Mercedes, Ferrari and Red Bull teams are priced odds on for a top six finish as is Bottas for Williams. For starters though Vettel has a five place grid penalty which will jumble the grid up and secondly the weather is expected to be extremely mixed all weekend. I am on the hunt for a value alternative to the six market leaders for a top six finish.
The foremost candidates here are the two Force Indias that are Mercedes powered and increasingly competitive since upgrades a few races ago. Perez has two top three finishes in the last three races on comparatively slow tracks whilst Hulkenberg, somewhat overshadowed by his team-mate recently, was in the top six in Monaco. Force India sit fifth in the constructors table and tend to go better than the team in fourth, Williams, in mixed conditions. Perez is as short as 11/10 for a top six finish here, Hulkenberg 13/8. Although wary of drawing too many conclusions from free practice, Hulkenberg ran third in Friday afternon's second practice. He strikes me as interesting value in this market
8 points Nico Hulkenberg Top Six finish 13/8 generally
Brexit, stage left.
The Brexit referendum result gave a great case study of why and how predictive markets, both financial and betting, can get things wrong. After hitting a low of 1.06 with £130m+ traded in the Betfair market "Remain" losing was perhaps the biggest upset in political betting history.
Firstly a look at the performance of and implications for the polling industry.
Brexit polling was all over the place. In particular, there was a divide between polls conducted over the telephone and online. As it turned out the online polls in this referendum were the only piece of information informing the world of the correct risk of a Brexit throughout the campaign. The online polls showed the race very close within a margin of error either side of 50/50, with a slight advantage for the Leave campaign. Throughout the campaign the telephone polls showed Remain comfortably ahead before showing an average 2.7% Remain lead over the final four weeks. The online polls showed Leave ahead more often than Remain, with an average lead for Leave of 1.8% over the same period. In total over the campaign period, 78% of the telephone polls showed a Remain lead, whilst 63% of the online polls showed Leave ahead
Perhaps a subsequent thesis that the samples being reached by telephone pollsters consistently contain too many people who are educated to degree level or higher (remainers, as a whole) proved accurate. Unfortunately throughout the run up to the vote the telephone polling was given more credence than online polling, perhaps a form of confirmation bias by the polling and political establishment.
Seven polling companies issued ‘final’ polls of voting intentions in the EU referendum. While no company forecast the eventual result exactly, in three cases the result was within the poll’s margin of error of +/- 3%. In one case Leave were correctly estimated to be ahead. In the four remaining cases, however, support for Remain was clearly overestimated. This is obviously a disappointing result for the pollsters because every single poll, even those within sampling error, overstated the Remain vote share.
The British Polling Council said afterwards that there would be no enquiry and that "Polling of voting intentions in the referendum was a unique event, and the lessons of this experience will not necessarily be transferable to polling of future general elections"
Turning to the betting markets Remain looked home and dry rated a 94% chance shortly after the polls closed after an on-the-day poll result from YouGov showed a 4% lead for Remain. At 2am on Friday morning the market flip-flopped so that Leave was a 1.99 favourite falling to 1.5 a few minutes later. Leave then drifted and the favourites switched again as the market reacted to every scrap of news, analysis and speculation. As results began to pour in from across the country odds for Remain drifted, hitting 6.0 at 3.45am and then 14.0 by 4.00am ahead of the official declaration after 5am.
It became fashionable during the referendum campaign to observe the betting markets instead of opinion polls for reliable prediction. News websites included live tracking of betting odds on their pages and main news stories would often include references to the betting odds as well as any new polling information. The betting markets however were charting the consensus narrative which in this case, as so often, proved to be wrong.
A reminder that 1/10 or below chances can lose, and of single “one off” event variance especially with no comparators to work off. Furthermore, if we needed reminded, proof that people bet to make money on their political forecasts not to provide an accurate prediction tool. The backlash afterwards against the betting industry was probably not helped by bookie PR before the vote. The Ladbrokes “barometer” and similar concepts from other firms did give the impression that they tried to present themselves as an opinion poll alternative rather than prices reflecting weight of money and perceptions of value.
Brodders Football Analysis ** Includes Euro 2016 Outright Preview and Game Coverage **
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Euro & other Football by Brodders (monthly) |
- Betting £10 a point would be showing a profit of + £11,592
- Long Term Profit - All Brodders bets since January 2014 are currently showing a ROI of +3.98% (over 2150 bets) (at 20th June 2016)
Bookmaker reviews and advice
Getting the best price available is very important for all those who take their betting seriously.
Please open an account with all those bookmakers on the page on this link that you do not already have an account with using the links provided.
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
£10 per point on every recommended bet since launch in Feb 2013 would be winning £25,350 (as at 20th June 2016)
All bets have an ROI +4.08% and Horse Racing has a ROI of +7.7%
A £4000 bank (see FAQ re bank-roll requirements) betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £29, 350% increase
The Road to Riches Weekend of 25th-26th June
Coming Up this weekend
- Football, Euro 2016 last sixteen matches this weekend, with six matches over Satuday and Sunday including Wales v Northern Ireland, France v Republic of Ireland and Croatia v Portugal. The Copa America final on Sunday night sees Argentina take on defending champions Chile.
- Racing, flat meetings at Doncaster, Chester, Lingfield, Newcastle, Newmarket and Windsor and the Irish Derby on Sunday.
- Golf, on the European Tour the BMW International in Germany and on the US Tour the Quicken Loans National at Congressional.
- Tennis, ATP Nottingham and WTA Aegon Championships at Eastbourne ahead of Wmbledon.
- Rugby Union, Third tests on the summer tours: Australia v England in Sydney, South Africa v Ireland in Port Elizabeth and New Zealand v Wales in Dunedin
UEFA Euro 2016 (10th June -10th July 2016)
**Please see the free tip write up below**
We have incorporated the Euro 2016 coverage into the Brodders section. Ongoing match coverage from Brodders can be seen via the links below.
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Euros 2016 (full package) (Includes all Brodders write ups, plus outrights/ antepost) |
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More EURO 2016 details and a FREE tip.... |
Wimbledon 2016 (27th June – 10th July)
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Wimbledon 2016 (full package) |
Nigel Seeley is a long term winner on tennis with a proven three year record on Bettingemporium. An outright preview (latest news, four bets and counting) following the draw will be published tomorrow and the package includes all of Nigel's match analysis, write ups and details of the bets that we are having.
Free Tip: This week Brodders looks at the last 16 of the Euros....
"Hi guys
We're all woke up in shock this morning - how on earth are William Hill only 8/1 on England to win Euro 2016?!
On our Euro 2016 package to date we're currently 37.5 points up on settled ante-post bets and on all bets in Euro 2016 so far we are around 156 points up with an ROI of 21.55% but with 15 games to go there's plenty to play for.
The couple of days without matches that we've had has given me the opportunity to reflect on performances and the draw and look at whether there are any further bets that I like. I've concentrated on the Top Goalscorer and outright Winner markets.
The Winner market is well developed and there has been a great deal of over-reaction to the lop-sided nature of the draw. Clearly teams in the top half have got a fabulous opportunity to make the Final given that Spain, Italy, Germany, France and England are all in the other half and we have already taken advantage of this by nabbing some 16/1 on Belgium. I don't think it's possible to have a bet on any team in the bottom half of the draw with any degree of confidence and we'll just have to keep our fingers crossed that results go our way.
In the top half, Croatia v Poland is a likely Quarter Final with Belgium v Wales likely to be the other one. We have Poland at 50/1 and Belgium at 16/1 and again, the each way terms have been changed by the bookies with them offering just 1/3 first 2 whereas we had 1/2 first 2 before. I kicked myself a little bit at missing the 40/1 on Wales and feel as though we have a good run for our money as it stands.
The Top Goalscorer market is still a very volatile one with one big performance still all that it would take for anyone to get into the running. The main questions we have to ask are which teams are likely to progress furthest and which teams will have the most opportunity to score goals. The teams that I think have the best opportunity to score the most goals in the last 16 are France, England, Germany, Wales and Belgium.
Of those teams, in the bottom half of the draw, England and France would be scheduled to meet in the Quarter Final should they both get through with Germany having to play the winner of Italy and Spain. I could see an England v France game having goals in it with Germany v Italy/Spain likely to be tighter and then a Semi-Final that's likely to be tight whoever plays. In the top half of the draw, Wales and Belgium have the potential to score plenty of goals in their last 16 matches but then would play each other in the Quarter Finals and likely play a tight game based on their Group matches.
We already have Gareth Bale at 50/1 and if he can find a goal against Northern Ireland then he would be very unlucky not to be at least joint top goalscorer based on previous tournaments.
Looking at Belgium, Lukaku is best priced at 7/1 and for someone who is pretty wasteful and could very conceivably go out at the Quarter Final stage or even before, that represents bad value.
France, England and Germany are all in the same half of the draw with Italy and Spain so could conceivably knock each other out on any given day but I don't like the German goalscoring chances as they have looked short of confidence on front of goal and I would want to be against them in the knockout stages.
With France they have Payet with 2 goals and Griezmann and Giroud have one each but with games against Republic of Ireland followed by England or Ireland I like the chances of this French side to score plenty of goals in those games. The same logic applies to England although we have looked short of confidence in front of goal. The good news for England fans is that Iceland can't defend that well and France definitely won't defend well against us. England have only had goals scored by Vardy, Sturridge and Dier and the current speculation is that Vardy and Sturridge will play wide in a front 3 with Harry Kane against Iceland in much the same way as they did against Turkey in a pre-tournament friendly.
One thing to keep an eye on at this stage is that some bookies have gone to each way terms of 1/4 first 3 rather than first 4 so it's important to make sure we get the extra place but I've had another couple of darts at this market with -
Top Goalscorer - Daniel Sturridge - 2 pts e/w @ 50/1 (William Hill 1/4 first 4)
Top Goalscorer - Antoine Griezmann - 2 pts e/w @ 25/1 (Various)
All the very best
Ian"
Rugby Rope a Dope.....
It’s been quite the start Eddie Jones’ England coaching career. When he was confirmed as Stuart Lancaster's successor after a group stage exit in a home Rugby World Cup England were eighth in the world rankings. Fewer than seven months later, England have won all eight of their matches in 2016, won a Grand Slam and a first ever series win in Australia. They are now second in the World Rankings.
There are several points to make about how Jones has effected such a quick improvement:
- He changed the coaching staff appointing Steve Borthwick who has taken the forward play to another level and Paul Gustard from Saracens who has stiffened up the defence
- He changed captain. Dylan Hartley was a controversial choice with a very chequered disciplinary record but he is extremely combative and abrasive on the field and has set the tone for the entire team
- Man management has been key particularly with the likes of Chris Robshaw, who most thought had played his last game for England and the much criticised James Haskell
- Attitude off the pitch has been crucial. Jones is an accomplished performer with the media and often gets the upper hand in exchanges prior to games
- Tactically, Jones has concentrated on Egland’s traditional strengths. A dominant set piece and a superb kicking game allied to brilliant defence has made them very difficult to beat.
Last weekend I thought we had a very good free tip in progress when England led Australia 10-7 at half time. Just before half time there was confusion between the officials on timings between the hooter and the official clock which meant that England had inadvertently given Australia another play. The next 22 phases of Australian attack over nearly four minutes summed up England. They were aggressive and physical and instantly injected even more intensity into their defensive effort.
I thought there was no way that could happen for another 40 minutes. However it did. England overcame deficits in territory (74-26% to Australia) and possession (71-29% to Australia) to win 23-7 in a performance described as a “rope-a-dope”.
Not only was this due to exception spirit and defence (In the words of former Wallabies coach Dave Brockhoff, they “cause havoc at the breakdown like sharks in a school of mullet”) but it has to be said the Australian attacking performance was both imprecise and bereft of quality, dropping the ball in sight of the line four times amidst a number of other mistakes and an attacking style that one home commentator described as like “watching bad rugby league”.
Nonetheless winning a grand slam is one thing, winning in Australia is another and England have been transformed into a top side very quickly.
The next challenge is a far tougher one altogether, to challenge the All Blacks and eventually beat them at the 2019 Rugby World Cup in Japan. England are still a young team and there should be a lot more progress to come. They may only have a few world class players at the moment (Farrell, Itoje are two, others are debatable) but they are already very difficult to beat because of a consistent strategy (set-piece, defence and territory based kicking) excellently applied and it is going to take more than bludgeon to beat them. New Zealand with such a wealth of ball players and flair together with all the rugby basics that England are executing so well obviously have this. However England are well on the way to challenging them.
Brodders Football Analysis ** Includes Euro 2016 Outright Preview and Game Coverage **
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Euro & other Football by Brodders (monthly) |
- Betting £10 a point would be showing a profit of + £11,592
- Long Term Profit - All Brodders bets since January 2014 are currently showing a ROI of +3.98% (over 2150 bets) (at 20th June 2016)
Bookmaker reviews and advice
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Please open an account with all those bookmakers on the page on this link that you do not already have an account with using the links provided.
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
£10 per point on every recommended bet since launch in Feb 2013 would be winning £25,350 (as at 20th June 2016)
All bets have an ROI +4.08% and Horse Racing has a ROI of +7.7%
A £4000 bank (see FAQ re bank-roll requirements) betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £29, 350% increase
The Road to Riches Weekend of 18th-19th June
Coming Up this weekend
- Football, Euro 2016 group games continue with games in the final round of matches including Belgium v Republic of Ireland and France v Switzerland. The 2016 Copa America continues, now at the Quarter final stage.
- Racing, the final day of Royal Ascot the highlight of a programme including flat meetings at Ayr, Newmarket, Haydock, Lingfield and Redcar.
- Golf, The US Open at Oakmont in Pennsylvania.
- Tennis, .the grass court season continues with the Queens tournament in West London, the Gerry Halle Open in Germany and the WTA Aegon Classic in Birmingham ahead of Wimbledon.
- Formula One, the inaugural Grand Prix of Europe in Baku, Azerbeijan
- Rugby Union, Second tests on the summer tours: Australia v England in Melbourne, South Africa v Ireland in Johnannesburg and New Zealand v Wales in Wellington
UEFA Euro 2016 (10th June -10th July 2016)
We have incorporated the Euro 2016 coverage into the Brodders section. The outright preview includes details of all the ante-post bets and ongoing match coverage from Brodders can be seen via the links below.
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Euros 2016 (full package) (Includes all Brodders write ups, plus outrights/ antepost) |
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More EURO 2016 details and a FREE tip.... |
Free Tip
Australia v England Rugby Union Second Test Melbourne (Saturday 11am Kick Off)
Fresh off their 2016 Grand Slam, England were underdog winners of the first Test in Brisbane last weekend, recovering from an early 10-0 deficit to win 39-28 in a thrilling match. Not that we needed telling but this was proof that under the hard-nosed approach of new coach Eddie Jones England are a fast improving side. England now have a chance to wrap up the series in the second Test Melbourne this weekend, and become the first English side to win a series in Australia.
Under the new coaching team they have solved their scrummaging issues that were such a problem during the rugby world cup and now have a line-out pairing in Itoje and Kruis alongside a bullocking back row that ensures them at least parity in the forward exchanges. Itoje in particular is becoming one of the stars of world rugby and his performance at the breakdown in Brisbane was notable, matching the vaunted duo of Hooper and Pocock on the floor.
Behind the forwards Owen Farrell was metronomic in Brisbane and keeps the scoreboard ticking over whilst being a terrific defensive player when England do not have the ball and out wide in the likes of Joseph and Watson there is a real cutting edge.
Australia went into this series missing some experience without the likes of Giteau and Beale currently injured. Brisbane was the first game since the Rugby World cup final and at times they looked rusty in their defensive formations. The scrum struggled too, a real setback given the huge improvements up front that really gave their strike runners the platform to perform so well last autumn.
Melbourne this week should be another great game and should be very close. I was hoping to see Australia priced up as underdogs after last week, especially now that Pocock is out injured but sadly not. My central case is that Australia will improve substantially and played much below optimum levels in Brisbane whereas first ten minutes apart England looked more tuned up and the familiarity bred of playing together through a six nations and a warm up game before getting on the flight really showed.
Australia announced their team early for this game and made four changes all in the pack realising they needed a more physical approach to challenge the English supremacy of the first game and given the likelihood that in Pocock’s absence they give up supremacy at the breakdown they needed to beef up, up front. They did though had no trouble moving the ball out wide, and looked threatening all game when in possession. This is reflected in an unchanged backs line up
For England Owen Farrell play inside centre to George Ford and Jack Nowell comes in on the wing in the only changes to last week’s starting line up
Because I expect a close game and being unable to back Australia at odds against I began to look at the half time/full time result markets. I think Australia will edge this one but could easily see them behind early as the new pack settles in and with Farrell likely to be kicking goals regularly early on. Such is the Australian strike power out wide though that I can see them putting up plenty of points as the game opens out later on.
The 13/2 available on Skybet or 888 for Half time England/ Full time Australia is a very interesting price indeed. I am going to record this though at the 6-1 with Ladbrokes and PaddyPower given its likely to be more accessible (well, maybe)
6 points England Half time/ Australia Full time at 6-1 Ladbrokes (13/2 Skybet)
Coming back?
Over the last week I have been following the increasing noises that Pinnacle is set to re-enter the U.K.sports-betting market later this year after announcing that it will apply for a gaming license. Pinnacle exited the market on in October 2014 in response to new gaming legislation that imposed a 15% point of consumption tax on all revenues from U.K. customers.
First reported in eGaming review Pinnacle is intending to come back and in response to a question from @bettingemporium on twitter last weekend replied
“We plan to be back in the UK before the end of this year”.
Given the state of the UK betting market, this would be significant news.
Pinnacle is distinguished by its primary focus of offering bettors the best value odds, and freedom to bet at desired limits without the fear of future restriction on account activity. They operate in a similar way to an exchange; do not take positions on games, but instead let markets shape themselves, helped by very sharp players. Many bookmakers try to distinguish themselves through gimmicky marketing including a lot of new customer offers but are fundamentally very similar in their basic business models and as we all know the betting landscape ex-Pinnacle in the UK is quite unsatisfactory for many bettors.
Pinnacle’s model works on volume, not customer profiling. They need high volumes of balanced bets to enable them to offer low margins, and are confident enough in their traders’ abilities to know that so long as volume is high enough the business is viable.
They seek volume without concern as to whether that comes from winning players or not, so it’s the perfect place for people who don’t want to be limited. There are no circumstances in which a legitimate winning customer will have their action limited. Issues only occur if they contravene any of the betting rules.
In August 2014 entrepreneur Magnus Hedman (Hedman also owns the Malta based Touchbet business, and in March 2015 he acquired Sporting Index) took a controlling interest in Pinnacle which is licensed in Curacao, but took the decision to operate in more respected regulatory jurisdictions by applying for a license in Malta. The license was awarded in March 2015. The statement issued by Pinnacle at the time said:
“The issue of the Class 2 Provisional Gaming Licence by the Maltese regulator helps fulfil a key component of a growth strategy outlined since a change of ownership, in August 2014.”
A U.K. license application will continue that strategy.
Brodders Football Analysis ** Includes Euro 2016 Outright Preview and Game Coverage **
Sign up to Brodders match analysis and recommended bets here for £50 a month. You are free to cancel at any time.
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Euro & other Football by Brodders (monthly) |
- Betting £10 a point would be showing a profit of + £10,278
- Long Term Profit - All Brodders bets since January 2014 are currently showing a ROI of +3.72% (over 2050 bets) (at 15th May 2016)
Bookmaker reviews and advice
Getting the best price available is very important for all those who take their betting seriously.
Please open an account with all those bookmakers on the page on this link that you do not already have an account with using the links provided.
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
£10 per point on every recommended bet since launch in Feb 2013 would be winning £21,602 (as at 15th May 2016)
All bets have an ROI +3.62% and Horse Racing has an ROI +5.25%
A £4000 bank (see FAQ re bank-roll requirements) betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £25,602 a 540% increase
Getting the best price available is very important for all those who take their betting seriously.
Please open an account with all those bookmakers on the page on this link that you do not already have an account with using the links provided.
