Weekly Articles "Road to Riches" by Rich 'Tighty' Prew
The Road to Riches: Weekend of 20th-21st August
Coming Up this weekend
- Football. The new season continues including the first Friday night Premier League match Manchester United v Southampton and Leicester v Arsenal on Saturday evening
- The Rio Olympics the Final weekend
- Racing, flat meetings at York, Salisbury, Sandown and Wolverhampton. Bangor-on-dee over the jumps.
- Golf, on the USPGA Tour the Wyndham Championship, on the European Tour the Czech Masters
- Tennis, ATP Western and Southern Open in Cincinnati
- Cricket T20 finals day at Edgbaston. Durham v Yorkshire and Notts v Northants in the semi-finals
- Rugby Union, the start of the SANZAR Rugby Championship with Australia v New Zealand in Sydney and South Africa v Argentina in Nelspruit
US Open Tennis August 29th to September 11th by Nigel Seeley
There will be an outright preview following the draw and the package includes all of Nigel's match analysis, write ups and details of the bets that we are having.
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US Open Tennis (Aug 29th - Sep 11th 2016) |
Free tip by Neil Channing: The Ebor Handicap (York 4.00pm)
You'll know the drill by now. It's a big-field 16+ runner handicap and so we get good value on the place part of any each-way bets we do if we get 1/4 1234. If we find a bookmaker offering 12345 at 1/4 odds then the deck is really stacked in our favour and we can't do much wrong having a bet at around the 12/1 mark.
The Ebor is a tough race to solve as there are 20-runners many of whom have been running over a shorter trip who may or may not stay, some of who have been running over further and now drop back, some of which have been around for years and others who are young and still improving.
The rain today though and the rain that is expected to fall before race time makes it a little easier to focus on horses that handle cut, that are in form and who ought to stay the trip.
There really are a whole bunch that could win but I wouldn't really want to back the favourite Antiquarium as I think he wants faster ground and despite a winner today I'm not sure the stable has it's runners going too well.
I'll cross off his other one Oceanographer on that same stable form angle.
Battersea is another who comes from a stable that aren't having too many runners despite the Postponed run and I'll swerve him.
I'll also swerve the Tony Martin pair of Quick Jack, who looks pretty exposed and Heartbreak City who looks a lot more interesting but who seems to be priced pretty defensively.
Seamour was obviously unlucky to get pipped in the Northumberland Plate but the market was watching that race.
Oriental Fox is pretty old now and he and Elidor don't have much improvement to come.
Vent de Force has some great form if you go back a little way and this is clearly the plan but you take a bit on trust.
Tawdeea needs to find a bit on form and to prove he stays so I couldn't have him.
Kinema is definitely interesting in that he has won on the trip, he comes from a good stable, he has gone Ok with cut in the ground and he is down in class after a poor run in the Goodwood Cup where he simply didn't stay. I'm not sure he's a big enough price though.
There are basically four I like and I think I'll narrowly pass on three of them and bet the other one but I wouldn't put you off betting a second, third or even or four if you like them.
Shrewd is from a trainer who is underrated so the price is probably bigger than the true chance. He's improved a fair bit this year, he definitely says the trip and he has good form on soft ground. I think 141 is pretty fair and I was close to betting a few here. It may find this is a bit too hot a race I guess but we'll see.
Top Tug is one that I wouldn't have a doubt over the class. Alan King does really well with his flat horses and this one has good form at the track. He ought to be Ok if it rains a lot but he isn't certain to stay the trip and that slightly puts me off a little bit.
The big priced horse I can make a case for is Sir Chauvelin who has a lightweight, definitely stays well and will appreciate any juice in the ground. If I could get 33/1 1/4 12345 I would definitely be interested.
I've settled on just one bet though and that is the stablemate of Kinema from the Ralph Becket stable, a filly getting a lot of weight from these and with Frankie Dettori on board it's She is no Lady.
This one ran a great race to be 2nd over a longer trip on soft ground at Sandown last time. She has no form at the track but she is improving, carries no weight and comes from a good stable and I find it hard to not see her being in the frame.
I'm having 7 Points each-way She is No Lady at 10/1 1/4 12345 with Hills and Sky Bet (of course I would take 11/1 with Bet365 but I'll count it at 10/1 to give you all a chance to get on).
A question of Trust.
The 2016 Olympic track and field competition began last Friday with a 10,000m world record-by Almaz Ayana of Ethiopia who won the gold medal in 29:17.45. It beat the previous world record by 14 seconds, held by Wang Junxia of China since 1993. It was only the second 10,000-metre race Ayana has ever contested. No one has ever come within 22 seconds of Wang's world record and Wang subsequently admitted that she was part of a state sponsored doping programme
Ayana ran a 14:30 second half, quicker than Olympic 5000m record & the first half would have won 3 of the 5 previous Olympic 5000m finals. It was not just about the winner though Ayana’s speed dragged the field along and saw the race produce 18 personal bests, 8 national records and athletes running sub-30 minutes didn’t get a medal.
One of the great tragedies of doping is the suspended belief of genuine human breakthroughs. As the leading investigative journalist David Walsh said about Ayana’s performance
“We can't accuse because there's no evidence and we can't believe because there's no trust.”
It’s possible to be both amazed at the performance and suspicious of it. Ethiopia and Kenya are among the nations put under watch in the past year by the World Anti-Doping Agency for inadequate drug testing policies, for example.
Ayana rejected the suspicions when asked at the post-race press conference, crediting her religious faith and her preparation for her success.
“Number one, I did my training. Number two, I praise the Lord. The Lord is giving me everything, every blessing,” she said, speaking in her native language, Amharic, through an interpreter. “My doping is my training. My doping is Jesus. Otherwise, nothing. I’m crystal clear.”
Later in the week, after South African Wayde Van Niekerk beat his 17 year old world record in the 400m final (he shaved more time off the world record than Johnson did when he set the record in 1999), Michael Johnson said the following:
“It’s a fantastic time for the sport from a performance standpoint but the sport has a huge credibility problem.
I was talking to someone about world records and there is doubt. If the only way to stop people suspecting you is to run slower then you have a problem.
The IAAF has to handle this and restore credibility otherwise people like Van Niekerk will have the injustice of people questioning them. That’s the fault of the federation not doing enough to ensure the sport is clean”
With the International Olympic Committee having ultimately allowed 278 Russian athletes to compete in Rio despite compelling evidence of state-sponsored doping across many sports over four years, the resulting backlash and paranoia is inevitable. The IOC was widely criticised for leaving the decision on whether Russian athletes should compete up to the individual sporting federations, despite a report by Prof Richard McLaren of the World Anti-Doping Agency (Wada) that he said proved beyond reasonable doubt that systemic state-sponsored doping had taken place across many sports.
Brodders Football Analysis
Sign up to Brodders match analysis and recommended bets here for £50 a month. You are free to cancel at any time. Our 2016-17 Championship and Premier League previews are in the Brodders section for subscribers.
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Euro & other Football by Brodders (monthly) |
- The Euros 2016 for subscribers. Results: +£4,098.30 (betting £10 a point, average bet about £150) +ROI 31.43%
- Long term profit over 3 years. Following all bets subscribers are winning £13,453 (£10 a point, average bet £150) +ROI 4.34%
Bookmaker reviews and advice
Getting the best price available is very important for all those who take their betting seriously.
Please open an account with all those bookmakers on the page on this link that you do not already have an account with using the links provided.
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
£10 per point on every recommended bet since launch in Feb 2013 would be winning £24,581 (as at 11th August 2016)
All bets have an ROI +3.77% and Horse Racing has a ROI of +5.48%
A £4000 bank (see FAQ re bank-roll requirements) betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £28, 581 a 614% increase
The Road to Riches: Weekend of 13th-14th August
Coming Up this weekend
- Football, the start of the new Premier League season this weekend. Our 2016-17 Championship and Premier League previews are in the Brodders section for subscribers.
- The Rio Olympics continues, with the Athletics programme beginning this weekend
- Racing, flat meetings at Doncaster, Lingfield, Newmarket, Newbury and Ripon. Market Rasen over the jumps.
- Golf, on the USPGA the John Deere Open at TPC Deere Run
- Tennis, as well as the Rio Olympics tennis competitions, ATP Opens this week in Colombia and Mexico.
- Cricket the fourth test between England and Pakistan continues at The Oval
US Open Tennis August 29th to September 11th by Nigel Seeley
There will be an outright preview following the draw and the package includes all of Nigel's match analysis, write ups and details of the bets that we are having.
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US Open Tennis (Aug 29th - Sep 11th 2016) |
Olympics Free Tip
400m Mens Track and Field, Rio Olympics
** Please note the 400m heats begin in the early hours of Saturday morning UK time if you are intending to follow me in.The final is scheduled for Monday 15th 2am our time.**
There are three major contenders for gold, well clear of the field on season and personal best times: World Champion Wayde Van Niekerk (South Africa), 2008 Olympic Champion LaShawn Merritt (USA) and 2012 Olympic Champion Kirani James (Grenada)
The form guide for this race revolves around the World Athletics Championship final in Beijing a year ago. Merritt and James were on pace to break Michael Johnson’s 43.18 world record through 300 metres but Van Niekerk paced the race well and swept past them on the final bend, winning in 43.48, which was the fastest time since 2007 and good for fourth fastest of all time.
Personal bests for the “big three” are
Van Niekerk 43.48 (2015)
Merritt 43.65 (2015)
James 43.74 (2014)
In preparation for Rio this season the three have near identical times in the range 43.97-44.11. Each of the three won two Diamond league events this season and in all bar one event (in which James beat Merritt) they haven’t competed against each other. Across the season Van Niekerk record the two fastest times of the league in his pair of wins, 44.12 and 44.19
This is an event, if track conditions permit, where a world record could be under threat in Rio.
I went through the whole athletics programme looking for potential situations and found that 15 of the mens track and field events had odds-on favourites. I had Van Niekerk a firm odds-on shot here too based off Beijing last year golden league times this. However best prices in the UK market currently are:
Van Niekerk Evens
James 2/1
Merritt 9/2
The South African looks a very solid bet here indeed.
20 points Wayde Van Niekerk 400 metres, Rio Olympics: Evens Skybet, Coral, Betfair Sportsbook
Losing my Religion
Eleven years ago last week England beat Australia in one of best Tests of all time in front of a packed Edgbaston. On the fifth day of the third test match last Sunday the ground was half full. Obviously the relative attractions of an Ashes series and Pakistan are part of the difference but there continue to be signs that Test cricket is losing its way not only within competing cricket disciplines but especially in a crowded sporting summer
On day four 14,000 tickets had been sold in advance out of a possible capacity of 23,500. at a starting price of £31 roughly a third of the cost of a Lord’s Test match ticket. Around 1,700 paid on the gate, bringing the official crowd figure up to 15,785. For day five, which somewhat against the odds played to a exciting conclusion, 10,432 paid £15 on the gate bringing total attendance to 81,832 over the entire Test.
By comparison to the Sri Lanka series, in early summer against an lower profile opponent attendances over the test match were Leeds:37,863 and Durham 29,310. This is decent in the context of world cricket, where for example games in Dubai and the West Indies are played in front of small crowds but disappointing compared to the recent past in England.
Part of the reason for this will be scheduling. The Wednesday start to the Birmingham Test would have deterred some potential weekend punters, fearing an early finish in light of the quick Ashes Tests in Birmingham and Nottingham last summer. Another reason will be the ever more crowded sporting schedule and competing leisure attractions
Over and above this though the system of rewarding Test matches in England makes provincial grounds such as Edgbaston the poor relations compared to the London grounds. Counties have to submit competitive tenders and bid to host matches and this drives prices up (good for the ECB coffers) but not great news for ticket prices or the counties themselves who in some cases have saddled themselves with debts to improve their facilities and increase their capacity.
Lord’s and The Oval, with their London locations and big prospective audiences, continue to pack their grounds for Test matches, though the Oval, rarely, was not a sell out for the first day of the final test this week. The London venues make a profit and also get first choice of when their matches are scheduled, with Lord’s generally hosting the first Tests of a two series summer and The Oval traditionally hosting the last Test of the summer.
The same likelihood of profitability is not seen outside the capital. For example Durham made a loss on the recent Sri Lanka test and this knocks on to the county playing staff with players now being poached for next season by other clubs.
In a fortnight Edgbaston will be packed, a sell out for Twenty20 Finals Day. The contrast between growth in and development of the T20 game and the marginalisation of the Test game is stark. Later this year the ECB will probably implement a move to a City based franchise T20 competition to be held in peak summer at weekends with International stars. Meanwhile English Test cricket’s main attempt to modernise (with over rates painfully slow and tactics cautious) is a “Super series points system” that most people have forgotten all about. For the record England lead Pakistan 8-4 after three tests.
Perhaps one of the signs that Test cricket (The Ashes apart possibly) shorn of terrestrial TV presence for a decade, is falling further in English popularity is to look at Sports personality of the year betting, which I did earlier this week. England’s best player is Joe Root. He is a world class sportsman and a likeable character yet 100-1 in the betting and a long shot just to make the short-list come the end of the year. He's the same price as Lizzie Armitstead and Tyson Fury, who have other things to worry about.
Brodders Football Analysis
Sign up to Brodders match analysis and recommended bets here for £50 a month. You are free to cancel at any time. Our 2016-17 Championship and Premier League (fresh out this week) previews are in the Brodders section for subscribers.
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Euro & other Football by Brodders (monthly) |
- The Euros 2016 for subscribers. Results: +£4,098.30 (betting £10 a point, average bet about £150) +ROI 31.43%
- Long term profit over 3 years. Following all bets subscribers are winning £14,456.80 (£10 a point, average bet £150) +ROI 4.80%
Bookmaker reviews and advice
Getting the best price available is very important for all those who take their betting seriously.
Please open an account with all those bookmakers on the page on this link that you do not already have an account with using the links provided.
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
£10 per point on every recommended bet since launch in Feb 2013 would be winning £25,350 (as at 20th June 2016)
All bets have an ROI +4.08% and Horse Racing has a ROI of +7.7%
A £4000 bank (see FAQ re bank-roll requirements) betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £29,350.50 a 633% increase
The Road to Riches Weekend of 6th-7th August
Coming Up this weekend
- Football, the start of the English football season with a full Football League programme beginning on Friday night with Fulham v Newcastle United
- The Rio Olympics begins with the opening ceremony on Friday night, events starting on Saturday
- Racing, flat meetings at Ascot including the Shergar Cup, Ayr, Haydock, Lingfield, Newmarket and Redcar
- Golf, on the USPGA the Travelers Championship at TPC River Highlands and on the European Tour the Paul Lawrie Matchplay in Scotland
- Tennis, ATP Atlanta Open in Georgia.
- Rugby Union, the Super Rugby final, the Hurricanes v the Lions in Wellington.
- Cricket the third test between England and Pakistan continues at Edgbaston
US Open Tennis August 29th to September 11th by Nigel Seeley
There will be an outright preview following the draw and the package includes all of Nigel's match analysis, write ups and details of the bets that we are having.
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US Open Tennis (Aug 29th - Sep 11th 2016) |
Olympics Free Tips
The Olympic rowing events start at 12.30pm UK time on Saturday, running through to finals at the end of next week
Looking across the markets five UK bookmakers are offering rowing prices (Sky, Betfred, Paddy, Hills and Boyles)
The following are from Ian Anderson, the Chief Rowing Writer for Fairfax in New Zealand, a long time sports bettor and friend of Neil and Joe's.
Men’s single sculls gold: Ondrej Synek 15 points at 3/1 Bet365 11/4 Betfred and Skybet (we will record this at 11/4)
This is the best value bet of the Games.
Even if Mahe Drysdale wins, backing Synek at this price is clearly the right thing to do.
Drysdale has been made favourite for a couple of reasons - he’s the defending champion, and he beat his great Czech Republic rival in their only World Cup match-up of the European season in Lucerne in May, when he rowed through Synek in the latter stages and the dual Olympic silver medallist virtually stopped rowing, spent.
But Olympic titles aren’t won in May.
Synek skipped the last World Cup event in Poznan in June, when the Kiwi beat Croatia’s Damir Martin, the third favourite in Rio, after a tougher battle than some expected. Martin (4/1+) is considered a spoiler by some come the final, but previous events suggest that won’t happen. The men’s single scull at Olympic level has a vast history of dominance by one or two rowers over two or three Olympiads - Ivanov, Karppinen, Kolbe, Lange, Mueller, Tufte. Drysdale won bronze in Beijing 2008 that probably would have been gold without a debilitating stomach bug, while Synek won silver then and did so again behind the NZer in London 2012.
What’s notable is that Drysdale hasn’t won a world title since his Olympic triumph - Synek has won the last three, scoring tight wins over Drysdale in the last two after the NZer wasn’t a major factor in 2013 after a long sabbatical.
The Czech won’t be too concerned about his loss in Lucerne - he tried to break the Kiwi and fell short by about 200 metres. He knows he can win. It’s realistically his final shot at Olympic gold - he’s 33 - and at 37 Drysdale would be the oldest men’s single scull champ since 1908 should he triumph.
Strangely, this is the second time the books have incorrectly priced this Olympic showdown - Drysdale opened at 14/5 pre-London before gradually being bet in to a slight underdog come regatta time.
This race is effectively a coin-flip.
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Men’s eight: Great Britain 7 points at 3/1 William Hill and Bet365
The market for this blue riband event has been topsy-turvy since Germany opened at a lucrative 3/1 and The Netherlands were also poorly priced initially at 31/5. The market has changed significantly - Germany are now favourites at that book at around 6/4 while the men in orange are paying between 2 and 3/1.
In my mind, that makes GB the value bet at 3/1.Great Britain has won three world championship titles since London 2012, where arch-rivals Germany won gold - they’ve had to settle for second-best for the past three years since.
The market again seems to have been based too much on this year’s World Cup form - even when very little separated Germany and GB when 1-2 in Poznan.
The Netherlands were surprise victors over Germany in Lucerne, with GB fourth behind the US, backing up their World Cup 1 triumph in Varese without the big guns present. In a tight field, the well-credentialed thirds favourites will attract my money.
Free Falling?
We are just over a week away from the start of another Premier League season and the Community shield this weekend is its traditional prelude Champions Leicester City and F A Cup winners Manchester United meet at Wembley. In the middle of next week Betting Emporium will be publishing some thoughts on the new Premier League season in the Brodders section. Look out for it in the middle of the week, unless something dramatic changes it will have suggested bets from 5/1 up to 50/1 across a range of markets.
One thing i doubt that write up will suggest is another winner at four figure odds after an unusual season last year when an unheralded team won the league by ten points and a number of the traditional "top six" clubs underperformed expectations. Last season betting one unit on every Leicester City league game moneyline resulted in over 27 units profit and a 75% ROI.
Indeed the outlook for Leicester City is one of the big imponderables for the forthcoming season, with some very polarised views being expressed. Last season in their "perfect storm" Leicester achieved 81 points, conceded under a goal a game average over the course of 38 games and lost three all season. Looking at spread and ante-post markets this time round the pivot point for 2016-2017 points is on or around 55, some 26 points lower than last season. Leicester are as short as 5/2 for a bottom half finish and can be backed at odds against for their first game of the season at relegation favourites, promoted Hull City.
Of course this is an unusual Premier League Champion and knowing what to expect is tougher than normal. For starters the summer has seen fervent speculation that last year's title winning team would break up. There have been two losses, one on the field (N'Golo Kante to Chelsea) and one off the field (Head of recruitment Steve Walsh to be Everton's director of football). Vardy resisted overtures and stayed and the future of Mahrez is likely to be one of the ongoing features of this transfer window.
Kante is a big loss. Leicester were able to function and compete against the better teams with a 4-4-2 last season almost entirely because Kante provided such an effective shield in front of the back four, and also won a lot of possession from which the side could transition quickly into counter attack. When asked how the side could function with a 4-4-2 with only two in the centre of midfield Steve Walsh famously said "We play Drinkwater in the middle and we play Kante either side". He won't be easy to replace and indeed his sale may facilitate the move to a 4-3-3 with the extra midfield player in place.
Mahrez would be a loss in another sense, given both his goal-scoring and assists last season. Ranieri is confident he stays one more season but its touch and go. On the flip side five players have arrived at the club, with more to come and overall the squad has a depth that it lacked last year even allowing for the loss of Kante. Most notable newcomer is probably Nigeria's Ahmed Musa from CSKA Moscow, another flyer that should suit counter attacking tactics for a side that never has a surfeit of possession and has to rely on pace and quick breaks to create chances.
Undoubtedly another factor to consider is the extra strain on the squad from an increased number of games. Last season team rotation was minimal and injuries scarce. This season there are six Champions League group matches before Christmas and consequently shorter recovery times before a number of Premier League matches. Whilst the squad depth appears greater, these are different conditions than faced by the squad and management team last season.
Finally Leicester must expect the approach of their league opponents to change. It wasn't until as late as March last season that teams began to defend deep against Leicester, trying to deny them space in behind. Fewer goals on the counter attack was the result, though the team found a way often through set pieces. It could well be that this season, more than last, a Plan B is required as teams respect Leicester more than they did last season.
An interesting season lies ahead. Some regression to a more "normal" result looks obvious. As well as all the challenges described above some of the habitual top teams (Chelsea, Manchester United etc) should be stronger this year than last too, so the top end of the table will be very competitive. Is that expected regression likely to be 26-27 points worth as markets currently imply? I suggest not, but we are about to find out....
Brodders Football Analysis
Sign up to Brodders match analysis and recommended bets here for £50 a month. You are free to cancel at any time.
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Euro & other Football by Brodders (monthly) |
- The Euros 2016 for subscribers. Results: +£4,098.30 (betting £10 a point, average bet about £150) +ROI 31.43%
- Long term profit over 3 years. Following all bets subscribers are winning £14,456.80 (£10 a point, average bet £150) +ROI 4.80%
Bookmaker reviews and advice
Getting the best price available is very important for all those who take their betting seriously.
Please open an account with all those bookmakers on the page on this link that you do not already have an account with using the links provided.
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
£10 per point on every recommended bet since launch in Feb 2013 would be winning £25,350 (as at 20th June 2016)
All bets have an ROI +4.08% and Horse Racing has a ROI of +7.7%
A £4000 bank (see FAQ re bank-roll requirements) betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £29,350.50 a 633% increase
The Road to Riches 30th-31st July
Coming Up this weekend
- Racing, flat meetings at Goodwood, Doncaster, Newmarket,Hamilton, Lingfield and Thirsk
- Formula One, the German Grand Prix at Hockenheim.
- Golf, the final major of the year the PGA Championship at Baltursol GC in New Jersey. On the European tour the Kings Cup in Thailand.
- Tennis, ATP Rogers Cup in Toronto
- Rugby Union, the Super Rugby semi finals, Hurricanes v Chiefs and Lions and Highlanders.
US Open Tennis August 29th to September 11th by Nigel Seeley
There will be an outright preview following the draw and the package includes all of Nigel's match analysis, write ups and details of the bets that we are having.
|
US Open Tennis (Aug 29th - Sep 11th 2016) |
Free Tip
Super Rugby Semi Final: Lions v Highlanders, Johannesburg Kick-off: Saturday 2pm bst
The Super Rugby semi-finals take place this weekend.
The highest seeded team the Hurricanes will play the lowest seeded team the Chiefs in one semi-final, while the second highest seeded team the Lions will play the second lowest seed the Highlanders in the second semi-final.
The top seeded team in the quarter-finals were the Hurricanes and they had a comprehensive 41-0 win over the Sharks in Wellington. Their semi final opponents the Chiefs beat the higher ranked Stormers 60-21 in Cape Town to give an all New Zealand semi-final.
The second semi-final will be hosted by the Lions who were too strong at home in Johannesburg beating the Crusaders 45-25 scoring 5 tries to 3. The Lions, the only non New Zealand team in the semis will play the Highlanders who beat the Brumbies in Canberra 15-9.
In the regular season the Lions had lost at home to the Crusaders (43-37) and the Hurricanes (50-17) but they were quickly out of the blocks last week and after a few nervy moments early in the second half they finished strongly. The Lions record against New Zealand sides this season now comprises of 3 wins and 3 defeats with the other loss coming to their semi final opponents (34-15) in Dunedin back in Round 3.
The Highlanders win over the Brumbies in Canberra last weekend in bad weather was by far the closest of the quarter finals. Against South African teams this season they won at home against the Lions early in the season, then lost at home to the Sharks (15-14) playing the bulk of that game with 14 men and later in the tournament they trounced the Kings (48-18) in Port Elizabeth.
It’s not a secret that the New Zealand sides are the class of this competition but the Highlanders are priced up as underdogs here. Prices are informed by the big recency bias of the Lions beating the Crusaders but the Lions were favoured by circumstances, with the Crusaders injury hit and working off a short week due to travel problems at short notice.
This has meant that the Lions are priced up as 4/5 favourites for the game, the Highlanders 11/10 underdogs with Skybet. Even allowing for home advantage I would have the Highlanders favourites in this game though and expect them to win.
Recommendation 15 points Highlanders 11/10 Skybet, Sportingbet or BetVictor
Regression to the Mean in Sports Betting
Many of us are familiar with the concept of regression to the mean in non-betting facets of life. It's used as a business model and as an investment tool just to give two examples. It also has plenty of practical applications for sports bettors as well in that variables that are more extreme on an initial measurement show a tendency to be less extreme on a second measurement. This is called regression to the mean. Regression to the mean is simply a way of stating that things tend to even out over time, or at least gravitate towards their norms.
Regression to the mean occurs whenever we look at the results of a combination of skill and randomness/luck, present in all sporting contests. In the absence of any readily identifiable other causes, such as injuries or significant player additions, the skill component can remain relatively stable, but, over time, extremes of luck tend to even out. Luck isn’t required to evenly distribute itself amongst teams in time for a last match of the season though!
If you watch sport often you will have a good idea of what regression to the mean is, having seen the basic concept in action on many occasions. Taking a team to reverse its recent form also means that you might get the best of the odds, as a team which has looked exceptionally good recently can be over-bet due to recency bias, while the team in poor form the reverse and those bettors who are not afraid to go against the grain are more likely to be the ones who come out ahead in the long run. It's the opposite of saying, which we all see written many times "team x has won six games in a row and is in great form, they are at home to team y that has no wins in five and therefore should be backed". Bookmakers love this sort of momentum betting, where prices already reflect recent form and no regression to the mean is factored in at all.
So the new football season is just around the corner. When in the next month a team starts out with three wins in their first four games it will be tempting to extrapolate that into a longer term record. However part of what we’ll observe in the team winning those nine points will be due to skill, part is due to randomness. It’s impossible for us to say how big a role each factor played. It’s possible that luck has been on their side so far. By the same token, it’s possible they’re a great team, and that their only loss was due to a bad luck, or the bounce of the ball..
However (and this is a big however), we must suspect some teams of being lucky. If you’ll admit that luck plays at least a small part in the outcome of a football game then we have to view the teams that start off well with some suspicion from a betting perspective.
At a very general level, bad teams aren’t as bad as they look, and good teams aren’t as good as they look, (with exceptions at the extremes each year, an Aston Villa last season for example).
We tend to intuitively understand reversion to the mean in the most extreme cases (we don’t predict that many teams will go undefeated, for example) but less so through the short term cycles of football results that we’ll see in the next nine months.
Brodders Football Analysis
Sign up to Brodders match analysis and recommended bets here for £50 a month. You are free to cancel at any time.
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Euro & other Football by Brodders (monthly) |
- The Euros 2016 for subscribers. Results: +£4,098.30 (betting £10 a point, average bet about £150) +ROI 31.43%
- Long term profit over 3 years. Following all bets subscribers are winning £14,456.80 (£10 a point, average bet £150) +ROI 4.80%
Bookmaker reviews and advice
Getting the best price available is very important for all those who take their betting seriously.
Please open an account with all those bookmakers on the page on this link that you do not already have an account with using the links provided.
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
£10 per point on every recommended bet since launch in Feb 2013 would be winning £25,350 (as at 20th June 2016)
All bets have an ROI +4.08% and Horse Racing has a ROI of +7.7%
A £4000 bank (see FAQ re bank-roll requirements) betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £29,350.50 a 633% increase
The Road to Riches 23rd-24th July
Coming Up this weekend
- Racing, flat meetings at Ascot, York, Newmarket, Newcastle, Chester, Lingfield and Salisbury.
- Formula One, the Hungarian Grand Prix in Budapest.
- Golf, USPGA Tour the RBC Canadian Open.
- Tennis, ATP Citi Open in Washington, ATP Swiss Open in Gstaad, ATP Kitzbuhel in Austria and ATP Croatia.
- Cricket, the second test between England and Pakistan at Old Trafford continues.
- Rugby Union, the Super Rugby play-off quarter-finals.
The Qatar Goodwood Festival 26th-30th July
Next week, coverage from Neil Channing of one of the racing highlights of the summer. If you had bet £10 a point on all Betting Emporium horse racing since 2013 you would be winning £7070 with an ROI of 7.7%
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Goodwood Festival - Full package (26th - 30th July 2016) |
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US Open Tennis August 29th to September 11th by Nigel Seeley
There will be an outright preview following the draw and the package includes all of Nigel's match analysis, write ups and details of the bets that we are having.
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US Open Tennis (Aug 29th - Sep 11th 2016) |
Free Tip by Neil Channing
Saturday 3.55pm Ascot 7f Gigaset Handicap
The fact that most firms offer five places at 1/4 odds in the Gigaset Handicap at Ascot makes it a terrific race to play each-way on. The field is pretty big with 26-runners but six of them are at least 50/1. As usual in races with this betting shape there is value in betting the horses who are between 1/1 and 20/1 each-way and it's hard to have a bad bet.
I managed to whittle the numbers right down by looking for horses that stay further than this seven furlongs as stamina is sure to be tested off a fast pace and also focussing on fast ground horses.
Fanciful Angel I don't really trust right now, Don't Bother Me may not love the fast ground, Nuno Tristan was pretty impressive last time but without that run I couldn't fancy him and I'd like something more solid, Bossy Guest I can really see the case for but he was 33/1 a couple of days ago, Brazos may want it a little softer and maybe he doesn't stay a yard more than this trip, Heaven's Guest is solid enough as he won this last year to improve on his fourth from 2014. Although he is slightly well in at the weights I think I'll pass on him at the price.
Suzi's Connoisseur is one I'll rule out at a short price given that he barely stays a yard past this trip and Librisa Breeze was absolutely cruising at the Royal meeting when he was beaten by the draw. I'm not sure I want to bet he'll be absolutely at his peak again especially on much faster ground.
Talking of the draw I kept saying during the Royal Meeting that the far side had an edge and I think that could be the same in this race. I'm going to take two against the field and the first one is the top weight Flash Fire who is drawn 6. This horse has run Ok over further, he was close up in the Bunbury Cup and he looks sure to run a solid race from a possibly great draw on ground that suits.
My other runner also ran a great race in the Bunbury Cup and I'm sure they'll finish close together and somewhere near the front. Mutawathea has fast ground form, he stays further than this trip and he also has good all-weather form which often translates well to the straight course at Ascot which is based on sand. Feels like he has to be in the frame.
I'm having 6 Points each-way Flash Fire at 16/1 1/4 12345 with Paddy Power (Sure that will be the general price tomorrow as it's bigger on Betfair right now).
I'm having 9 Points each-way Mutawathea at 12/1 1/4 12345 easily available.
Best of luck. If you win you might want to get the write-ups for all the races at Goodwood next week.
Brexit and the Premier League.
Britain's vote to leave the European Union could mean significant changes if continental players can no longer easily join Premier League clubs. Since the advent of the Premier League and ever larger TV deals hundreds of players from Europe have come to play here. The ramifications for the Premier League after will only become clearer as Britain negotiates its exit terms and ongoing relationship with the EU.
Here are some of the issues:
- Sterling Uncertainty
Britain will still be in the EU for at least two years. The immediate impact of the Brexit vote has stemmed from currency fluctuations amid the uncertainty.
The sharp fall of the pound means transfer fees for European players in particular will rise for British clubs. Foreign players converting pay into in their home currencies will notice they get less after conversion too
Conversely, English players are currently cheaper for continental clubs, although few move abroad in large part due to the high salaries on offer at home.
- Work Permits
With Britain voting to leave the EU more than 100 players now fail to meet the current work permit criteria for non-EU players and therefore could not automatically join other Premier League clubs using the Home Office’s current rules, requiring players to have played in a certain number of their national team’s matches.
There is currently an "exemptions panel" where clubs can argue why it is necessary to grant a visa to a player who doesn't meet the criteria. This has resulted in players such as Dimitri Payet, N’Golo Kante and Anthony Martial, none of whom were established internationals when they joined the Premier League last summer, being exempt.
The current FA Work Permit Regulations are as follows:
- A player from a FIFA ranked top-10 nation only has to have played in 30 percent of games in the two years prior to application to be granted a work permit
- A player from a 11-20 ranked nation must have played in 45 percent of international games
- That rises to 60 percent for the next 10 countries, and 75 percent for countries ranked 31-50
Leaving the EU would mean players from current EU countries would need to meet these criteria to qualify for an automatic work permit. One lawyer commented:
“Clubs will be limited to hiring higher calibre players from highly FIFA ranked EU countries. If the Premier League is limited to these players, this will increase the values, in terms of transfer fees and wages, of acquiring proven and established EU players. Missing out on rising talent will be one of the drawbacks."
- Homegrown talent
The English FA sees the potential for more homegrown players to gain first-team opportunities in the Premier League, and potentially help the national team. However the Premier League will want to protect its status as a leading domestic competition due to its competitiveness and the mult-inational makeup of squads.
With leading clubs also playing in the Champions League and Europa League, they could argue that government needs to provide some form of easier access to players from the continent.
"If Brexit increases the number of English players, that is to be welcomed," FA chairman Greg Dyke said. "But you don't want to lose the best European players coming here."
While the FA was neutral in the referendum campaign, the Premier League backed staying in the EU and will not want the league to be affected when television rights for the next three seasons have generated £8.3bn with more than £3bn of that coming from overseas broadcasters.
- Youth Development
The impact of Brexit might not be seen for a decade as some of the biggest enforced changes could be the makeup of club academies if clubs can no longer sign promising 16-18 year-olds from across Europe. Under the FIFA Regulations on the Status and Transfer of Players Article 19 allows the “transfers of minors between the age of 16 and 18 within the EU or EEA”.
Currently teenagers can be brought to England relatively cheaply for low compensation payouts to European teams rather than paying transfer fees. The hope is players break into the first team or become saleable assets. Clubs like Chelsea also have partner clubs in Europe like Vitesse Arnhem in the Netherlands, to send promising players to gain experience. That might become more difficult.
"European clubs could have a competitive advantage over English clubs when it comes to recruiting promising players at the optimum time of 16 to 18," said a leading sports lawyer. "Youth development is probably the biggest impact Brexit is likely to have."
Brodders Football Analysis
Sign up to Brodders match analysis and recommended bets here for £50 a month. You are free to cancel at any time.
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Euro & other Football by Brodders (monthly) |
- The Euros 2016 for subscribers. Results: +£4,098.30 (betting £10 a point, average bet about £150) +ROI 31.43%
- Long term profit over 3 years. Following all bets subscribers are winning £14,456.80 (£10 a point, average bet £150) +ROI 4.80%
Bookmaker reviews and advice
Getting the best price available is very important for all those who take their betting seriously.
Please open an account with all those bookmakers on the page on this link that you do not already have an account with using the links provided.
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
£10 per point on every recommended bet since launch in Feb 2013 would be winning £25,350 (as at 20th June 2016)
All bets have an ROI +4.08% and Horse Racing has a ROI of +7.7%
A £4000 bank (see FAQ re bank-roll requirements) betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £29,350.50 a 633% increase
