Weekly Articles "Road to Riches" by Rich 'Tighty' Prew
The Road to Riches: Christmas Week
Merry Christmas: Coming Up this weekend
- Football. A crowded Christmas Premier League programme begins on Boxing Day.
- NFL Week Sixteen of the NFL regular season includes ten divisional games in the penultimate week of the regular season.
- Racing Boxing Day jumps meetings at Kempton, Fontwell, Huntingdon, Market Rasen, Sedgfield, Wetherby and Wincanton and Wolverhampton on the all-weather.
- Cricket, the Boxing Day Test in Melbourne, Australia v Pakistan.
NFL: The Play-Offs and Super Bowl LI
Playoff package includes: 7th/8th January: Wildcard games, 14th/15th January: Divisional Playoffs, 22nd January: Conference Playoffs
Super Bowl package includes all Neil's Super Bowl game analysis PLUS all his infamous prop bets.
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NFL Playoffs (Jan 7th - 22nd 2017) |
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Super Bowl LI, Houston, Texas (Sunday Feb 5th 2017) - Includes all of Neil's prop bets on the Super Bowl. |
Australian Open Tennis by Nigel Seeley
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Australian Open Tennis Championships (Jan 16th - 29th 2017) |
The full package is £50 and includes the outrights, all Nigel's match analysis and details of all the bets that we have.
Nigel is an excellent long term winner on the tennis with an ROI +3.84%. If you had bet £10 a point on all darts bets on this website since we launched 3 years ago you would be winning £1299.90
Free Tip by Neil Channing
The King George at Kempton 3.15pm Boxing Day
Generally speaking I like to give you a Road to Riches horse tip in a race where we can get stuck in each-way and get a big price. I did think about working on the Welsh National but given that we don't really know exactly who will run yet I thought I'd focus instead on the King George. I definitely had been hoping that the big race on Boxing Day would have eight or nine runners and I might have been very tempted by Tea for Two each-way. Although I quite like that horse it would have to improve massively to beat both Thistlecrack and Cue Card or they'd have to both run below form. I think he'd probably prefer soft ground too. Given that there are only two places available now he ranks a terrible place bet as do pretty much all of these. You might think that with two short priced horses and a terrible profile for the place part of bets that I'd just skip this one but I actually think there is a fairly obvious bet that we ought to be able to get on easily and which is good value.
Having ruled out Tea for Two let's quickly go through the other runners.
Silviniaco Conti has quite a few miles on the clock these days and although it loves it round here the horse probably needs softer ground and I'd be pretty shocked if he won. Josses Hill used to attract a lot of rude comments. It was once said he "jumps like a snooker table" which I thought was rather good, (he used to kind of belly-flop over the fences landing a bit flat). I think he's really improved now and I wouldn't be that surprised if he won but he would have to find at least a stone and that would also mean he'd need the two Tizzard horses to run badly. The stable are in great form and he could win the battle for 3rd or even possibly grab 2nd.
It's not too original to say that this race is between the "big two" but I do think the prices on them are not quite right and that we can have a value bet.
Thistlecrack is a lovely horse who could easily improve and turn into a superstar. He might well win this and then go to Cheltenham and win the Gold Cup. I think the price on him starting that journey here is way too short though. This horse has run just four times over fences, he'll need to improve at least half a stone which he could easily do, he'll need to prove that he jumps just as well going right-handed as all four chases have been on left-handed courses and he'll also have to hope that Cue Card doesn't run to his absolute best. It's definitely possible that he handles the course, Cue Card doesn't run to his best and that he improves a bit but I'd want nearer 5/2 than 11/8 about the chance of those things happening.
If we bet Cue Card we have a solid horse that is a fair bit better than all of these on their best form, who loves it round here and who has had this as a target for a while. If it was good to soft I'd make it even shorter but I do think he ought to be an odds-on favourite and he is the only runner that could run a little less than his best form and still win. At 5/4 it's not the best bet I've ever seen but I do think it offers a bit of value and spotting +ev situations and repeatedly betting them is what makes you money over the year.
I would mention that I always vary my stakes according to how much value I think I'm getting and just because the price is shorter than bets I sometimes tip I certainly won't just have double on unless I think it's double as good a bet.
I'm having 12 Points win Cue Card at 5/4 with Skybet, Paddy Power, Ladbrokes and on the exchanges.
Win or lose I hope it is a great race and it helps make it a wonderful Christmas to all Betting Emporium fans.
Trumped....
The forthcoming Donald Trump presidency presents challenges to US sport in a number of areas including Los Angeles’ bid to host the 2024 Olympics, plans to bid for the 2026 FIFA World Cup and the global expansion plans of the US’ three biggest sport leagues: the NFL, NBA and MLB.
In September 2017 the IOC will be choosing between Los Angeles, Paris and Budapest as the host city for 2024. “I don’t want us to be a country that is focused inwards, I think we have to look outward to the world.” Los Angeles’ mayor, Eric Garcetti said in August about the bid. Los Angeles’ chances must have weakened with Trump’s election. IOC president Thomas Bach spoke in the summer about a "world of selfishness where certain people claim to be superior to others". That was seen as a clear reference to Trump's proposed plans that include potential restrictions on Muslim immigration and the deportation of millions of illegal immigrants. The charismatic Bill Clinton was a key component of the last successful US city bid, for the 1996 Atlanta games, and Trump will become a crucial factor in LA's attempt to host the Games.
Plans for the US, Canada and Mexico’s collaborative bid to host the 2026 FIFA World Cup might be off the table. Due to Donald Trump repeatedly threatening to send illegal Mexicans back to their country and have a wall built and funded by Mexico, a collaboration between only the US and Canada sounds more rational. World Cup bids only succeed with firm government backing and solid financial guarantees. It's difficult to imagine there would be a friendly atmosphere of co-operation over a joint tournament with such big issues being argued over at senior levels within the US and potential partner governments.
America’s biggest sports are thriving to become more international. The NFL, NBA and MLB have already played matches in other countries, for example, in London, Barcelona, Rio de Janeiro and Mexico City. Trump’s plan to cut international ties that don’t profit America, ending several trade deals, might interfere with this prospect. Would countries such as China, facing possible tariffs, be open to hosting games for the principal benefit of US franchises and permitting beneficial tax arrangements for visiting teams and leagues?
There are a couple of big domestic issues for US sport under a Trump presidency too. Sports franchises across America can apply for state-aid to help fund new stadiums, using taxpayers' money to improve their infrastructure. The practice has cost the US treasury $4.8bn since 1997. Politicians are convinced the enhanced employment prospects justify using tax-empty bonds for stadiums, even though franchises benefit significantly as a result. Trump ( a former owner of a team in the now defunct USFL) has a close relationship with several owners of NFL teams and will have been lobbied hard about the chasm the removal of third-party investment (suggested by Obama) would leave.
There is another implication for the NFL. The NFL have long acknowledged a direct link between the sport and conditions which can lead to depression and memory loss and have funded multi-million pound studies into concussion. Concussion protocols in the professional game do not specify when players can return after a head blow, but that five steps must be taken before an individual can be cleared. At youth level, no step can be completed within less than 24 hours.
During a Trump rally in Florida earlier this year, a woman in the front row fainted before returning to watch his speech. "The woman was out cold and now she's coming back," Trump said. "See? We don't go by these new, and very much softer, NFL rules. Concussion. Oh, oh! Got a little ding on the head. No, no, you can't play for the rest of the season. Our people are tough."
One health professional commented after the rally: "Calling out the NFL is worrisome. To say that they're not 'manning up' is one of the worst things, because of the negative influence that can have on kids. Kids want to be tough, they don't want to let their team-mates down. And if kids don't seek treatment because of those kinds of comments, that'll just cause problems in the end."
Brodders Football Analysis
If you had bet £10 a point (average bet £150) on all Brodders’ bets this year you would be winning over £15000
Sign up to Brodders match analysis and recommended bets here for £50 a month. You are free to cancel at any time.
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Euro & other Football by Brodders (monthly) |
- The Euros 2016 for subscribers. Results: +£4,098.30 (betting £10 a point, average bet about £150) +ROI 31.43%
- Long term profit over 3 years. Following all bets subscribers are winning £20,216 (£10 a point, average bet £150) +ROI 5.71%
Bookmaker reviews and advice
Getting the best price available is very important for all those who take their betting seriously.
Please open an account with all those bookmakers on the page on this link that you do not already have an account with using the links provided.
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
£10 per point on every recommended bet since launch in Feb 2013 would be winning £34,185 (as at 26th October 2016)
All bets have an ROI +4.75% and Horse Racing has a ROI of +6.84%
A £4000 bank (see FAQ re bank-roll requirements) betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £38, 185 an 855% increase
The Road to Riches: Weekend of 17th-18th December
Coming Up this weekend
- Football. The Premier League programme includes Manchester City v Arsenal
- NFL Week Fifteen of the NFL regular season includes the New England Patriots at the Denver Broncos.
- Racing includes jumps meetings at Ascot, Haydock and Newcastle and on the all-weather Lingfield.
- Cricket, the fifth test between India and England in Chennai continues.
- Rugby Union, the fourth round of pool matches in the European Champions Cup.
PDC World Darts Championship (15th Dec to 2nd Jan) by Nigel Seeley
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PDC World Darts Championship 2016 |
The full package is £50. An outright preview was published earlier this week and there are ongoing daily updates with all of Nigel's match analysis giving details of all the bets that we are having.
Nigel is an excellent long term winner on the darts with an ROI +5.4%. If you had bet £10 a point on all darts bets on this website since we launched 3 years ago you would be winning £1466.90
Free Tip
European Champions Cup Rugby Pool Match Connacht v Wasps (Saturday 5.30pm)
Connacht were right in the first game these teams played last weekend at 17-20 after an hour, missed a kick to draw level and Wasps, helped by a strong bench, pulled away in the last quarter to record a bonus point win and top the group. It could be a different story in Galway this weekend, a very tough place for visiting teams to play in December weather. The Galway Sportsgrounds are open and facilities are rudimentary and the supporters are raucous and passionate. Connacht had a big advantage at scrum-time in the first match and will be looking to exert pressure on Wasps and keep their dangerous back line on the back foot. Wasps are brilliant with ball in hand but that wasn't easy for long stretches last week with the pack going backwards.
Obviously this is a quick turnaround to tomorrow's game and Wasps have been priced up as 1/2 favourites, Connacht 2/1 in a place and 15/8 underdogs generally at home. Connacht +5 at 10/11 is tempting. I think at a minimum it will be very close and am going to recommend Connacht at 2/1. Wasps have Toulouse at home and Zebre away to come, bonus point wins in those games should win them the pool. A bonus point loss here (lose by less than seven points) wouldn't be the end of the world, whereas Connacht are going to be all guns blazing at home to win it. In his press conference this week Connacht coach Pat Lam said "Without a doubt this game is massively important in the context of our European ambitions."
The Wasps coach Dai Young meanwhile was alluding to the challange and tempering expectations a touch
"We are well aware of the huge challenge ahead of us, against a quality side, at a very difficult place to play. Connacht Rugby have a really passionate set of supporters and we are expecting it to be a fantastic atmosphere, as it always is at the Sportsground. We also expect the weather conditions to be as testing as they normally are in December, so we will need to be efficient with possession and any opportunities that come our way.
“We were really pleased to pick up five points last weekend and I’m sure Connacht were disappointed not to come away with anything. However, I imagine they left confident that they will be able to get something out of this Saturday’s game, having caused us plenty of problems last week. We can’t give them as much ball as we did at the Ricoh Arena. We’ll need to secure more possession and cause them more problems ball in hand than we did then. We know we’ll need to be better than we were last week if we’re to get a result”
10 points Connacht to beat Wasps 2/1 Coral, 15/8 generally
** next week, King George free tips for Boxing Day from Neil**
Goals! (part 2)
Last Saturday set a Premier League record with 29 goals on a match day with six games or fewer. Every home team scored three or more, two games had five goals and two games had six goals. Over the ten matches across the weekend, 36 goals were scored.
Pundits have had a field day. In national newspaper columns this week Ian Wright has called the standard of Premier League defending “appalling and laughable” while Stan Collymore has lamented that “proper defenders” are a “dying breed”.
As of last Sunday from 146 matches played so far this season, 427 goals have been scored, an average of 2.9 goals per match (up to 2009 2.5-2.6 goals per game was the norm across a season). If the present ratio were maintained, the 2016/17 season would finish with 1,111 goals, almost 50 more than the 1,066 in the previous highest-scoring season, in 2011/12.
The number of goals scored in each Premier League game has risen 8% since 2001-02. It’s not a solely English league phenomenon either. Champions League games have seen 16% more goals per game since 2006-07 One of the reasons goals-per-game has gone up in the Champions League is that the gulf in quality between the best and the worst sides has increased and so there are more one sided games, a process exacerbated by the introduction of the Champions Path to qualification in 2009 and more mismatches in the group stages. In this season's group stage there were a record 14 games in which a side has won by four or more goals.
A few weeks ago I postulated that a combination of pressing tactics, the changing financial landscape giving a broader spread of talent across the league (so more teams go for it, fewer set out to shut up shop) and the standard of defending were all part of the trend towards higher goals per game.
Looking at defending specifically the past two weekends have seen the issues writ large. Manchester City have kept two clean sheets all season and prior to the midweek game this week had conceded seven goals in two games and seem to be employing the little used “false number one” tactic. Liverpool have kept three clean sheets all season and allowed Bournemouth to score four a fortnight ago with only limited attempts to “sit” on a lead and see a game out.
Changes to the offside law in 2009 have contributed to a more open and progressive game but over and above that defenders and goalkeepers are no longer selected just for their ability to stop opposing attackers but also for their passing ability (here’s looking at you, John Stones) and that seems to have led to a drop-off in the basic skills of defending.
Defenders lacking technical ability can be exposed by an opponent playing the high press that is in fashion across European football. This is not a problem that can be rectified by a return to a more old-fashioned style of defensive defender as they will not be selected in some teams unless they are also good on the ball.
The result is exciting game after exciting game. Great for the neutral but frustrating for those who celebrate the art of defending
Brodders Football Analysis
If you had bet £10 a point (average bet £150) on all Brodders’ bets this year you would be winning over £15000
Sign up to Brodders match analysis and recommended bets here for £50 a month. You are free to cancel at any time.
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Euro & other Football by Brodders (monthly) |
- The Euros 2016 for subscribers. Results: +£4,098.30 (betting £10 a point, average bet about £150) +ROI 31.43%
- Long term profit over 3 years. Following all bets subscribers are winning £20,216 (£10 a point, average bet £150) +ROI 5.71%
Bookmaker reviews and advice
Getting the best price available is very important for all those who take their betting seriously.
Please open an account with all those bookmakers on the page on this link that you do not already have an account with using the links provided.
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
£10 per point on every recommended bet since launch in Feb 2013 would be winning £34,185 (as at 26th October 2016)
All bets have an ROI +4.75% and Horse Racing has a ROI of +6.84%
A £4000 bank (see FAQ re bank-roll requirements) betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £38, 185 an 855% increase
The Road To Riches: Weekend of 10th-11th December
Coming Up this weekend
- Football. The Premier League programme includes Manchester United v Tottenham Hotspur.
- NFL Week Fourteen of the NFL regular season includes the Dallas Cowboys at the New York Giants on Monday Night football.
- Racing includes jumps meetings at Cheltenham, Doncaster and Lingfield and on the all-weather at Newcastle and Wolverhampton.
- Golf, on the European tour the UBS Hong Kong Open and on the USPGA the Franklin Templeton Shootout.
- Cricket, the fourth test between India and England in Mumbai continues.
- Rugby Union, the latest round of pool matches in the European Champions Cup.
PDC World Darts Championship (15th Dec to 2nd Jan) by Nigel Seeley
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PDC World Darts Championship 2016 |
The full package is £50 and includes the outrights, all Nigel's match analysis and details of all the bets that we have.
Nigel is an excellent long term winner on the darts with an ROI +5.4%. If you had bet £10 a point on all darts bets on this website since we launched 3 years ago you would be winning £1466.90
Free Tip
European Rugby Champions Cup Rugby Wasps v Connacht Sunday 1pm (Sky Sports 2)
This is a key game in Pool 2. Connacht won the Pro 12 last year, a rare achievement for the smallest of the Irish rugby provinces thay was long viewed by the IRFU as a feeder side to the likes of Leinster and Munster and almost folded just over a decade ago. Irish Provinces are currently limited to four non-Irish eligible (NIE) players and one non-Irish qualified player ("Project Player"). Connacht Rugby is exempted from this under a separate development arrangement and that has helped accelerate their improvement greatly. They have played two won two so far in this season’s ERCC (a narrow home win against Toulouse, a big win in Italy against Zebre). This is their toughest test against the pool favourites, last season’s semi-finalists, who put 82 points on Zebre at home in the first game then scored a last gasp try to get a draw at Toulouse in late October.
Wasps need to win, preferably denying the visitors a losing bonus point ahead of the reverse fixture in Galway next week that is likely to decide the pool. Domestic form doesn’t point to anything other than a home win. Connacht are not the force of last year, lying 8th (of 12) in the Pro 12 league while Wasps are second only to Saracens in the Aviva Premiership despite a season blighted by injury.
Wasps are an exciting team to watch. High scoring potential with renowned attacking ability and in their favour the weather forecast is ok for Sunday. Their plan will be to win the key battles up front and exploit spaces later in the game. In the two games against Connacht bonus points are going to be crucial. In the ERCC sides earn 1 try bonus point for scoring four or more tries, and 1 losing bonus point for being defeated by seven points or fewer. Here Wasps will have their eye on the former, Connacht the latter as every point is going to count with the possibility of only one team from the pool going through to the last eight.
Wasps sit second in the Aviva despite missing big name players for chunks of the current season. Elliott Daly is currently banned after being sent off for England whilst all of Joe Launchbury, Danny Cipriani, Jimmy Gopperth, Kyle Eastmond and Christian Wade have been absent too. They are getting heathlier though. Fly-half Gopperth (a nerveless goal-kicker) and wing Christian Wade play this game while Launchbury is back from suspension. The talented Australian back Kurtley beale was a marquee signing in the summer then suffered a knee injury a day later. He has been in full training for a fortnight and is selected at inside centre for Sunday.
Betting markets for the game tell us that Wasps should win. Wasps are 15 point favourites on the handicap and prohibitively priced on the outright. They key point here is, as the probably better side but sitting second in the pool and going to Ireland next week where the realistic target will be a win and no more ( try bonus points being far less likely ) they have to keep their foot on the gas and go for four tries plus and a win by more than 7 points to stop Connacht earning a bonus point of their own.
Connacht are a combative, their backs (notably star player Bundee Aki a New Zealander in the centre) can create plenty and they are competitive up front but man for man Wasps are the superior side. Unlike last week, hoping for no careless interception tries late on to sink a winning margin bet...
10 points Wasps to win by 11-20 points 9/4 Coral
Bonus Time
Six Nations organisers will test a system that rewards try-scoring and narrow defeats in an effort to promote attacking rugby in the 2017 Championship starting in February. Bonus points systems are commonplace in major rugby competitions for example The Rugby Championship and European Rugby Champuions Cup but until now the Six Nations has resisted them
Here's how the 2017 Six Nations will work:
Winning a match:
- Four points for any win
- An extra point if winning side score four tries or more
Losing a match:
- No points for a defeat
- But losing team can collect a bonus point for scoring four tries or more
- OR if they lose by a margin of seven points or less
Drawing a match:
- Two points each
- An extra point for each side that scores four tries or more
The Grand Slam:
A country than wins all five matches and achieves a Six Nations Grand Slam, will be awarded a further three match points. This prevents them winning the Grand Slam with no bonus points (20 points), but coming second to a team with four bonus-point wins and a bonus-point defeat (22 points).
The system will be reviewed afterwards to determine whether it should be adopted permanently. Most past winners would have remained the same with bonus points factored in, but England would have won the 2013 title rather than Wales.
There has long since been opposition to bonus points in the six nations as the six teams compete on a home or away basis, for each campaign half play three of their five matches at home with the other half playing three on the road. The stumbling block has always the same: the imbalance of home matches. The championship is not a league where teams play each other home and away in the same season. This has the potential to produce some inequities.
Depending on the fixture list in a given year, a team might be playing in the wet in Edinburgh, whilst another trots out on a sunny day and a true surface in Rome. The Six Nations is such a short sprint to the line that such variables can have a disproportionate distorting effect with one team, perhaps, racking up try bonus points in one venue and being handicapped in that pursuit in another.
The decision comes a year after the northern nations failed to provide a World Cup semi-finalist. The rise of Argentina since they began competing in the Rugby Championship was compared with Italy, who have made little progress in the 16 years playing in the Six Nations.
The average number of tries per match in last year’s Six Nations, a particularly stodgy renewal of the Championship, was 4.7 compared to 5.8 in the Rugby Championship. Whether bonus points are a panacea for conservative rugby remains to be seen though. The Championship is frequently played in bad weather and on heavy pitches and in terms of tactics defensive schemes have become much more robust across the major nations. At the lower end of the Six Nations there is also a paucity of flair and talent compared to the Southern hemisphere nations.
Still, the hope is that bonus points reward try-scoring and an attacking style of play that will deliver more tries and greater rewards for fans and players alike and still lead to the drama of the last weekend of the six nations where three games are played con currently and often the title winner is not know until the final whistle on that last afternoon
Brodders Football Analysis
If you had bet £10 a point (average bet £150) on all Brodders’ bets this year you would be winning over £15000
Sign up to Brodders match analysis and recommended bets here for £50 a month. You are free to cancel at any time.
|
Euro & other Football by Brodders (monthly) |
- The Euros 2016 for subscribers. Results: +£4,098.30 (betting £10 a point, average bet about £150) +ROI 31.43%
- Long term profit over 3 years. Following all bets subscribers are winning £20,216 (£10 a point, average bet £150) +ROI 5.71%
Bookmaker reviews and advice
Getting the best price available is very important for all those who take their betting seriously.
Please open an account with all those bookmakers on the page on this link that you do not already have an account with using the links provided.
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
£10 per point on every recommended bet since launch in Feb 2013 would be winning £34,185 (as at 26th October 2016)
All bets have an ROI +4.75% and Horse Racing has a ROI of +6.84%
A £4000 bank (see FAQ re bank-roll requirements) betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £38, 185 an 855% increase
The Road to Riches: Weekend of 3rd-4th December
Coming Up this weekend
- Football. The Premier League programme includes Manchester City v Chelsea. Also the second round of the FA Cup
- NFL Week Thirteen of the NFL regular season includes the Kansas City Chiefs at the Atlanta Falcons
- Racing includes jumps meetings at Aintree, Chepstow, Sandown and Wetherby plus on the all-weather at Wolverhampton.
- Golf, on the European tour the Australian PGA and the Alfred Dunhill Championship in South Africa. On the USPGA the Hero World Challenge in the Bahamas
-Rugby Union, the final Autumn International, England v Australia at Twickenham
PDC World Darts Championship (15th Dec to 2nd Jan) by Nigel Seeley
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PDC World Darts Championship 2016 |
The full package is £50 and includes the outrights, all Nigel's match analysis and details of all the bets that we have.
Nigel is an excellent long term winner on the darts with an ROI +5.4%. If you had bet £10 a point on all darts bets on this website since we launched 3 years ago you would be winning £1466.90
Free Tip
Autumn International England v Australia, Saturday 3rd November
England have won 13 tests in a row and go for a record equalling win against Australia this weekend, last achieved in Sir Cive Woodward's era 2002-3. So far this autumn series England have beaten South Africa, Fiji and Argentina. England were down to 14-men for 76 minutes and they played for 20 minutes with 13 men last weekend, beating Argentina 27-14
The autumn has shown that England, with the strongest domestic pool of players in the Northern Hemisphere, have real strength in depth having gone into the games with the likes of Itoje, Haskell, Nowell and Watson injured and that will be tested further this weekend as injury list continues to grow as another star name in Billy Vunipola has been ruled out for 3 months with a serious injury.
After winning the Grand Slam earlier in 2016 England beat Australia 3-0 on their summer tour. During the early part of their season, Australia were forced to try lots of new combinations and have given 13 new caps since the World Cup. Australia have improved since as the new squad has bedded down, but on their own tour this autumn lost in Ireland last weekend to end their hopes of a clean sweep of games.
Against Ireland, tough opponents and probably the nearest challenger England have in the Six Nations, Australia came back from 17-0 down to only lose narrowly 27-24. Once they settled into the game some of the tries they scored were wonderfully crafted but in terms of basic execution of skills up front and at the breakdown they were found wanting. In the game they conceded 19 penalties and 13 turnovers, compared to 6 and 3 respectively by Ireland.
In the summer tests England won the three matches by 11, 6 and 4 points and although Australia were off-key they still scored ten tries in the three games, a measure of how dangerous they can be when they have the ball. England won with poorer possession statistics than Australia. In particular, England won the third test with less than 35% of the ball, an incredible defensive effort.
The key to this game again will be in the back rows and the breakdown. England’s defence in Australia used Itoje to help counter the threat of Pocock and Hooper and the back row managed to slow down Australian ball and limit the opportunities for broken field play, from which Australia can shred any team. Compared to the summer though England have just Chris Robshaw left from the back row and they may see the new back row combination (Nathan Hughes, Wood and Robshaw) minus Haskell, Vunipola and turnover specialist Itoje in front of them in the second row as the place to start picking England apart.
To fully benefit Australia need parity up front and this will be tough against England who have a pack that at least matches any opponent in the world game and, if necessary, a kicking game that will win territory and attempt to get the visitors forced into playing rugby in the wrong areas of the field. Australia have made four changes from the Ireland game including the Bulky ball carrier Timani at number 8 to help them in that crucial battle to protect Phipps and Foley athalf back, who England targetted successfully in the summer.
It's going to be very close. I think England will win but perhaps not as comfortably as outright odds of England 1/3 Australia 3/1 suggest. Australia are +9 10/11 generally on the point spread which is a tempting bet with the back row battle looking different to that which decided games in the summer. A way of gaining some more value is to back England to win by 1-12 points at nearly 2-1. This is an underdog to England 13+ in the betting yet captures my central expectation that England win by a score plus, but not more.
10 points England to win by 1-12 points 15/8 Coral or 7/4 Skybet
Gogglebox
As mentioned a few weeks ago in this column the NFL has seen the Presidential election as the biggest reason why this season’s NFL ratings have fallen so drastically. This view gained some credence when on Thanksgiving last week the Dallas-Washington game achieved record viewers for a Fox regular season game with 35.1m watching. For the year, NFL ratings are still down in every time slot: Sunday afternoons, Sunday nights, Thursday nights and Monday nights but without the competing distractions of earlier in the season, 35.1m was a huge figure, the largest regular season figure for 21 years.
However later last weekend the NFL's issues were thrown into sharp relief when the Sunday night Chiefs-Broncos game, a big divisional rivalry featuring the superbowl champions, drew an audience 27% lower than the same slot int he same week last year (Patriots-Texans). That said overnight TV rating for last night's Dallas at Minnesota game on NBC+ NFL Network was 14.1m, second best ever for the slot. Perhaps we are finding out the effect of a relevant and successful Dallas Cowboys on the NFL's fortunes.
As a response to ratings trends earlier this season the NFL is focusing on the pace of play as a way to make the sport more TV friendly. In the NFL average game time has increased adding five minutes per game over the past two years. In 2015, games averaged 3:07 and through eight weeks of this season, that figure is up to 3:12. This is against a background of younger viewers watching less television. The idea is that shorter games will keep viewers watching longer. Even with the lower ratings this season, the league’s overall reach number is consistent with previous years. That means that the amount of time that people spend actually watching the games has dropped, which is what primarily is accounting for lower TV ratings.
Here are some ideas that have been discussed by the NFL as they look to adjust to win back viewers. Implementation would require agreement with the networks.
Fewer ad breaks
NFL executives publicly have said that they want to look into this, which makes sense given the volume of complaints about the frequency of stoppages during NFL games. This is the least likely idea to be enacted as the current contracts spell out the number and duration of ad breaks which are required to pay for the contracts with the NFL.
It would not be surprising to see the league experiment with shorter ad breaks in 2018, when it takes “Thursday Night Football” to the market and has the flexibility to negotiate new contracts.
Shorten half-time
This seems like a realistic option that could happen. In the NFL, half-times generally are about 12 minutes long. Once again, any change on halftime length would have to go through the TV networks that run advertising schedules throughout the break and produce half-time shows that also attract sponsors. As long as the networks do not lose advertising revenue, they likely would be agreeable to such a move. .
New replay review system
The NFL’s replay review process is too time-consuming and cumbersome. Referees jog off the field to watch replays for a minute or two under a hood, consulting with the NFL’s replay executives sitting in an office in New York. Then they huddle with other referees, talk to the coaches and announce their decision. The amount of time it takes to review a call is a big problem at home and in the stadium. The league has to speed up that process. The NFL is looking into the idea of allowing people remotely to review close plays, make decisions and relay them to the on-field referees.
Have PA speaker announce penalties
Why do referees announce every penalty? How much time would it save to use the PA system to make the announcements in-stadium and broadcast team to make the announcements on air? The idea being considered in NFL offices is to free up the officials to keep play moving even when penalties are called.
Too many broadcast windows
“Thursday Night Football” is here to stay. So is “Monday Night Football” and “Sunday Night Football.” The NFL makes too much in rights from these packages. Firstly though the decision to allocate games in particular on thursday nights to a wide range of teams has seen a real lack of quality in the games and this can be addressed in scheduling next year. Also recent noises suggest that Sunday morning 9:30am kickoffs (Eastern time) for the London games might be pushed back into the 1 pm window (6 p.m.London time) to run concurrently with other games. For the US audience NFL Sundays that start with the 9:30 a.m. games are filled with more than 14 hours of football. Football fatigue sets in for even the most ardent fan. Against that the afternoon kick offs are popular with our fans, especially those from outside London having to get home late on a Sunday evening.
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The Road to Riches Weekend of 26th-27th November
Coming Up this weekend
- Football. The Premier League programme includes Chelsea v Tottenham Hotspur.
- NFL Week Twelve of the NFL regular season includes the Kansas City Chiefs at the Denver Broncos on Sunday night football
- Racing includes jumps meetings at Newbury (featuring the Hennessey Gold Cup), Bangor, Doncaster and Newcastle and on the All-Weather Wolverhampton.
- Golf, the World Cup of Golf in Australia.
-Cricket, the third India-England test in Mohali begins. The third Australia-South Africa test match in Adelaide.
-Rugby Union, the Autumn Internationals continue with England v Argentina, Ireland v Australia, Wales v South Africa and France v New Zealand
- Formula One, the final race of the season, the Abu Dhabi Grand Prix.
PDC World Darts Championship (15th Dec to 2nd Jan) by Nigel Seeley
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PDC World Darts Championship 2016 |
The full package is £50 and includes the outrights, all Nigel's match analysis and details of all the bets that we have.
Nigel is an excellent long term winner on the darts with an ROI +5.4%. If you had bet £10 a point on all darts bets on this website since we launched 3 years ago you would be winning £1466.90
Free Tip
India v England Third Test Betting Preview Mohali, Saturday 26th November 4am UK time start
The third test in the five match series begins in the city of Chandigarh in the Punjab tomorrow morning. India won in Vizag to go 1-0 up.
After England drew the first test the path of the second test match was much more as expected before the series. India won the toss, made 450 and England’s top order batted disappointingly. Once they were all out 200 runs behind India’s total the game was pretty much up on a pitch that deteriorated and helped the Indian spinners as the game went on.
On the fifth day, needing to bat 90 overs plus to save the game, England capitulated as their defensive techniques against spin proved insufficient.
Mohali will be another tough test for the visitors, with India having won five of the last six tests they have played there and drawn the other. One of the best batting pitches in India, traditionally, winning the toss is absolutely vital for England and if not, batting far better in their first innings crucial as on the sub continent there is rarely a way back from a big first innings deficit. Looking at the pitch from videos and reports in the 48 hours before the game its very dry, slightly cracked and it could be a case of “win the toss, bat and win the match”
In the last test match at Mohali, Indian spinners took 19 of the 20 South African wickets to fall in their victory. Such is the disparity for this match in the spin attacks and the way both of these batting line ups seek to combat spin that it would have been a major surprise if the pitch was not dry and cracked this time too.
India are likely to be unchanged after their win. England replace Duckett with Buttler and Broad and Ansari are injured meaning recalls for Woakes and Batty.
Odds for the game are as follows
India 8/13
England 7/2
Draw 9/2
Much like the last test 8/13 India is in the realms of being backable, I would have them 1/2 or shorter if they win the toss and no worse than fairly priced if they don’t. The draw being the outsider of the three options in 1-2-x markets reflects that this is a pitch not expected to last 5 days.
Looking at sub markets and performances in the two tests so far
top England batsman
So far in the series Stokes 233 runs Cook 207 runs , Root 206 runs
top India batsman
Kohli 337 runs Pujara 262 runs Vijay 167 runs
Top England bowler
Rashid 13 wickets Ali 7 wickets Broad 6 wickets
Top India Bowler
Ashwin 11 wickets, Jadeja 6 wickets
Injuries permitting, I would expect Rashid and Ashwin in the bowling ranks and Kohli in the batting to continue to lead the way with the England batting line up too competitive to bet with any confidence in any given innings. There is always the possibility that a batsman at 6 or 7 tops the scoring charts for England and that makes it a tough market to bet
The stand out bet for me in the match is Adil Rashid top England bowler at 5/2 generally but a stand out 100/30 with Skybet. Compare that to having to take 5/4 about Ashwin in the comparable Indian market.
For England conditions won’t suit Anderson and Woakes with the new ball or Stokes at first change and Batty isn’t going to run through a side at this level. I would see the main threat as Moeen Ali (second favourite in the market at up to 4/1) but Rashid has taken a step forward this series and is the biggest wicket taking threat England have in conditions that don’t suit them as a team
9 points Adil Rashid Top England bowler (1st innings) 100/30 Skybet (5/2 generally, we’ll record at 5/2)
Polling and Populism
It’s the 1st January 2017. President-elect Clinton is setting up a meeting with Prime Minister Miliband, who is going to travel to Washington after an EU budget meeting for the period 2017-2022. At which point I woke up.
All three outcomes above (Labour, Remain, Clinton) were odds-on in betting markets and firm favourites in pre-event polling. With all losing the past eighteen months have left the reputation of pollsters badly dented. Failure of the polls in Britain led to calls for regulation. There is talk they should be abandoned altogether in favour of alternative sources of data, or that time would be better spent going to speak to people whose views are not captured by polling companies. Above this high profile polling failures allow another reason for “experts” to be pilloried, as is the current vogue through sections of the media and the populace.We are we are told, in a “post-fact” era. Pollsters and pundits opining on polling trends are another elite to be put back in their place.
Polling is getting harder. Electorates are undergoing substantial changes with voters becoming more volatile and more detached from the parties that they have traditionally supported. In the US there is a growing new majority of millennials, racial minorities, immigrants and secular people creating a fast-moving target for pollsters from election to election.
First the Brexit/US Election comparison.
- In the case of Brexit, the polling picture was mixed. Telephone polls showed a clear lead for Remain, online polls showed a tight race, with leave often ahead. Our media expected Remain to win and wrongly focused only on those polls that agreed with them, leading to a false narrative of a clear Remain lead, rather than a close run thing. Some polls were wrong, but the perception that they were all off is wrong, it was a failure of interpretation.
- In the case of the USA, the polling picture was not really mixed. With the exception of one LA Times poll all the polls tended to show a picture of Clinton leading, backed up by state polls also showing Clinton leads consistent with the national polls.
How wrong were the US polls? Clinton won the popular vote but lost in the Electoral College. That doesn’t get the American pollsters off the hook though: the final polls were clustered around a 4% lead for Clinton, when in reality it looks about 1.5% (equivalent to over 2m votes). More importantly, the state polls were often a long way out. Polls had Ohio as a tight race when Trump won by 8 points. All the polls in Wisconsin had Clinton clearly ahead; Trump won. Polls in Minnesota were showing Clinton leads of 5-10 points, it ended up on a knife edge.
Errors were not evenly spread across the battleground states. In states with a comparative high proportion of white voters without a degree, Trump’s share of the vote was underestimated the most. Errors in state polling contributed to over-confident predictions of the outcome by poll aggregators.
Clinton suffered from a disappointing turnout among Hispanics, African Americans, single women and millennials. Clinton’s total vote fell well below Obama’s in 2008 and 2012. The other change voters, the white men without a degree, did their part too. Concentrated in rural and smaller towns in the rust belt, they became even more consolidated in their support for Trump and turned out to vote in unprecedented numbers. Trump won a huge 49% lead and 72% of the vote among this group.Finally within the non-college-educated white women group Trump won by 27% despite all the publicity about his attitudes to women, a 9% bigger margin than that achieved by Romney in 2012. Late turns across these three segments of voters allowed Trump to win Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania by a percentage point, overcome a loss in the popular vote and win the electoral college.
For pollsters across the world landline penetration is falling, response rates are falling and it seems likely that the people willing to take part in polls are less representative than previously. In the UK our samples seemed to be skewed towards people who were too educated, who paid too much attention to politics, followed the news agenda and the political media too closely. Those with little interest in politics were under-represented in samples and several UK pollsters have since started sampling and weighting by that to try and address the issue. Were the US pollsters to be shown to suffer a similar problem one can easily imagine how it could result in polls under-representing Donald Trump’s support, and so it did.
Polls still provide us with valuable information, if we can accept that they sometimes may be off by a matter of a few percentage points. In close races, these margins of error matter and make political betting markets difficult especially when the “wisdom” of the betting crowd is not formed from those voting most for change. In all three recent “polling errors” the UK General Election, Brexit and the Presidency the result was within margins of errors but in the latter two events especially the trend to “change” and “populism” was not adequately captured.
In the US, Trump and Clinton had the highest unfavourable ratings of any presidential candidates ever. This alone should have suggested that normal rules might not apply, or that the behaviour of voters would be less predictable than usual. Thanks to late swings, so it proved and so began another polling post-mortem.
Brodders Football Analysis
If you had bet £10 a point (average bet £150) on all Brodders’ bets this year you would be winning over £15000
Sign up to Brodders match analysis and recommended bets here for £50 a month. You are free to cancel at any time.
|
Euro & other Football by Brodders (monthly) |
- The Euros 2016 for subscribers. Results: +£4,098.30 (betting £10 a point, average bet about £150) +ROI 31.43%
- Long term profit over 3 years. Following all bets subscribers are winning £20,216 (£10 a point, average bet £150) +ROI 5.71%
Bookmaker reviews and advice
Getting the best price available is very important for all those who take their betting seriously.
Please open an account with all those bookmakers on the page on this link that you do not already have an account with using the links provided.
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
£10 per point on every recommended bet since launch in Feb 2013 would be winning £34,185 (as at 26th October 2016)
All bets have an ROI +4.75% and Horse Racing has a ROI of +6.84%
A £4000 bank (see FAQ re bank-roll requirements) betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £38, 185 an 855% increase
