The Road to Riches: Weekend of 11th-12th February

** A date for your diary: Our 2017 pre Cheltenham dinner with our expert panel will be on Saturday March 11th in London **

Coming Up this weekend…

- Football, Premier League games include Liverpool v Tottenham Hotspur.

- Racing, Jumps meetings at Newbury, Uttoxeter and Warwick. All weather meetings at Lingfield and Wolverhampton.

- Rugby Union: the second weekend of 2017 Six Nations, Wales v England and Italy v Ireland on Saturday and France v Scotland on Sunday.

- Tennis, ATP Opens in Montpellier, Sofia and Quito, Fed Cup 1^st round matches

- Golf, on the European Tour the Maybank Championship in Malaysia and on the USPGA the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am.

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Six Nations France v Scotland Sunday 3pm BBC1

France played England off the park for 60 minutes at Twickenham. Their huge forwards controlled the close exchanges and, at long last, their backs really turned it on. Louis Picamoles was brilliant but scrum-half Baptiste Serin has revived the French team and increased the tempo of their attacks hugely. Sadly for the French, I felt Guy Noves the coach got his substitution strategy wrong after an hour, Serin was substituted, the French attack withered and England’s bench changed the game. France with 127 carries to England's 96, and 591 metres made to England's 383, lost.

Novès will be really disappointed that France did not see the game out, but he has to be encouraged by how his team played. They are creating a powerful mix of big carries, off-loads and links to their back three who are capable of breaking out from any part of the pitch at any moment .Virimi Vakatawa and Noa Nakaitaci were both frequently involved and Scott Spedding hit some great lines. The quick passing and interplay between forwards and backs was fun to watch for that hour.

Many pundits and writers agreed that while Scotland could definitely beat Ireland, few expected them to actually do it. With Wales and Italy to come at Murrayfield, Scotland could well ensure they finish the tournament with a 100 per cent record at home. Against Ireland Scotland had three chances in the first half and scored three tries. They were smashed in the front row but benefitted from miscues in the Irish line out, huge work-rate by the back five forwards (Jonny Gray made 28 tackles) with tireless defending and work rate off the ball and the individual brilliance of Stuart Hogg.

Most significantly when they went behind 22-21 with 20 minutes to go they came back went ahead and closed out the game. This is a huge step forward for a team that has struggled to do this for several years. In the last few minutes Greig Laidlaw’s composure and game management were crucial.

They face quite the challenge to back this up in Paris, especially the key question of how do they hold on in the scrum. Facing the French off the back foot is going to be difficult, notwithstanding their ability to create turnovers at key moments and line speed in defence. They will hope to run the huge French pack around and be in the game for the last twenty minutes and use what they expect to be better fitness at that stage. The interesting part of the team selections is that in making one change, France have gone for more bulk and power in selecting Chouly in the back row whilst in replacing the injured Wilson with the noted snaffler John Barclay, Scotland have yet more speed and turnover ability. It is in this battle up front that the game will be decided.

Outright odds for the game are France 4/9, Scotland 2/1 and France -6/Scotland +6. I prefer France -6, the second half being the highest scoring at 5/6 and this bet below for the game. 

10 points France to win by 1-12 points 7/4 Coral (13/8 Skybet)

The Kante Role

In part, the 2016-17 Premier League season is a tale of two clubs. Chelsea have 30 more points after 24 games this season compared to last. Leicester City have 29 less. Of course there are a variety of reasons for this change in performance at both sides but there is one striking common denominator, the (not at all biased) wonderful holding midfielder N’Golo Kante who arrived in the Premier League at the start of last season for the now eye-opening fee of only €8 million and has since only lost 6 of the 60 games he has played. Although only having been in the league for a season and a half, he’s recorded the most tackles of any Premier League player over the last three seasons.

Lets take Leicester City first (get it out of the way). At the time of writing Leicester City have won 114 fewer tackles and made 188 fewer interceptions in 2016/17 than they had at the same point last season. Not all of that is Kante but much of it is. His loss has been widely felt. The favoured 4-4-2 formation has often been over-run without him. The central defenders Morgan and Huth have looked slow and cumbersome without his protection and the trademark counter-attacking style has struggled to launch without Kante winning possession and allowing quick and often unexpected transitions from defending to attack.

The now famous quote by the former Head of Player recruitment (now at Everton) Steve Walsh is apposite “People say we play two in the middle but we don’t. We play Drinkwater and then Kante either side”

Turning to Chelsea, buying Kante for £32m on a five year contract has to be seen as a steal. In the past week Chelsea have had two big games against top six opponents, Liverpool and Arsenal and have gained four points to remain nine points clear as we enter the final third of the season.

His performance against Liverpool attracted a lot of attention but wasn’t especially unusual for him. Nevertheless recording 16 tackles during the game, 14 of which were successful was enough to get the pundits purring. In the second half alone he won all 12 of the tackles he attempted, 7 of which were in Liverpool’s half.

Moving onto the Arsenal game last weekend Coquelin and Oxlade-Chamberlain in central midfield were over-run by Kante and Nemanja Matic and one column afterwards stated

“N'Golo Kante has officially made 'The Makelele Role' a thing of the past. From now on, the position of defensive midfielder will be forever known as 'The Kante Role'.”

So what makes him so good? Firstly his engine, he is an excellent athlete and really covers the ground. A journalist tweeted during the Arsenal game that he “must have a tardis” to be in central midfield one moment and dispossessing a wide midfielder the next. Secondly he can tackle and tackle cleanly and has superb positioning to anticipate and intercept regularly. Thirdly he can play too, picking passes across a range of distances and particularly good at sparking transition.

His role in the Chelsea team is enhanced by being next to another top class holding midfielder in Nemanja Matic an enforcer (if required) with a real physical presence. Whilst Chelsea have only conceded 17 goals in 24 league games much of the focus has been on the dramatic improvement in defensive form since the switch to three central defenders (and thus providing some protection to Luiz ) in September  but the defensive barrier starts before you reach Cahill, Luiz and Azpiliceuta with Kante and Matic, a partnership no team has managed to get the better of this season so far.

Last season Sir Alex Ferguson described Kante as “the best player in the Premier League”. If he was then, he is more so now. For £32m he is both the signing and loss of the season and is having a major impact at both ends of the table.

When it comes to end of season gongs, it has become very unusual for defensive players, especially defensive midfield players, to get much recognition. In the betting for PFA Player of the year the head of the market sees, unsurprisingly, Hazard and then Kante whose odds have crunched down for 20-1 to 5-2 in a week at which point he is ahead of the likes of Costa, Zlatan and Alli.

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The Road to Riches: Six Nations Special

** A date for your diary: Our 2017 pre Cheltenham dinner with our expert panel will be on Saturday March 11th in London **

Coming Up this weekend…

- Football, Premier League games include Chelsea v Arsenal. The African Cup of Nations final is on Sunday.

- Racing, Jumps meetings at Musselburgh, Sandown and Wetherby. All weather meetings at Lingfield and Newcastle.

- Rugby Union: the start of the 2017 Six Nations.

- Tennis, Davis Cup World Group Round 1 matches include Canada v Great Britain

- Golf, on the European Tour the Dubai Desert Classic and on the USPGA the Waste Management Phoenix Open at TPC Scottsdale

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Scotland v Ireland Six Nations Saturday 2.25pm BBC1

There is a preview of the Championship below (big price free tips at the end: no spoilers, you’ll have to read down) but here’s a look in more detail at this game, the Opening game of this year’s Six Nations in Edinburgh.

Ireland won the Six Nations in 2014 and 2015 but 2016 was a rebuilding year minus retired Brian O’Driscoll, Paul O’Connell and others and they finished 3^rd. The signs are that Ireland will be very competitive again this year. The rebuilding process has been very quick, and mirrored in the excellent performances of Irish provinces in European Champions Cup where results have improved dramatically this season. This is likely to be seen in two respects.

Firstly for a long time Ireland’s fortunes were dependent on the form and presence of Jonny Sexton, one of the top few fly-halves in world rugby and the ultimate game manager. During his frequent injury absences his understudies were Ian Madigan, Ian Keatley and Paddy Jackson. 2016 clearly showed that Jackson has matured to the extent that Ireland appear something close to the same team when he at 10 instead of Sexton. This is heartening as Sexton is out this weekend.

Secondly many younger players across the Irish provinces have burst onto the scene and cemented themselves quickly as international standard players. The likes of CJ Stander in the back row, Garry Ringrose in the centre and Tadhg Furlong in the front row are very talented and have been integrated alongside an experienced core of players.

Allied to this, Ireland have one of the best coaches in the game in Joe Schmidt and Ireland play a set style that really suits their players based off a superb kicking game at half back, punishing defense and these days more flair out wide when conditions allow.

Scotland have finished 5^th, 6^th and 4^th last year in the last three Championships. They haven’t delivered the results their talent suggests they should have done, particularly in losing a number of close games

It’s Déjà vu all over again going into this Championship, and optimism abounds in what is coach Vern Cotter’s last Six Nations at the helm. The curmudgeonly old coach Jim Telfer said this week “this is our best team since 1999" (when they won the six nations). The backs coach Jason O’Halloran was more circumspect saying the team was a couple of years away but nonetheless this should be a better Six Nations for Scotland.

Optimism has been enhanced by Glasgow (this weekend's 23 contains 15 Glasgow players) reaching the quarter finals of the European Champions Cup for the first time and the side on Saturday contains the likes of the Gray brothers at lock, Finn Russell at fly half, the brilliant Stuart Hogg at full back as well as emerging talents such as Huw Jones in the centre and Zander Fagerson at prop.

There are a couple of doubts specifically about Russell’s ability to control a tight game and defence is an area that needs improvement after leaking 13 tries in last year's Six Nations, second only to Italy. Over and above that Scotland need to develop a ruthless streak and close out some games. With three games at Murrayfield though Scotland will feel a top three finish is possible. Beating Italy and either France or Wales is not a forlorn target.

Outrights for the game have Ireland 1/2 and Scotland 2/1+.The Handicap is Ireland -5. I do expect Ireland to win, but I also think it will be extremely hard fought and close for a long way. Wet weather (all week and forecast for tomorrow) is likely to contribute to that too.

10 points Ireland to win by 1-12 points .13/8 Sky Bet, 6/4 Betfair Sportsbook

Six Nations Preview

The 2017 Six Nations Championship begins this weekend. England are the defending champions, having won the Grand Slam last year and go into the tournament unbeaten since the appointment of Eddie Jones as coach after the 2015 Rugby World Cup.

For the first time, the 2017 tournament will use the bonus point system common to most other professional rugby union tournaments. As well as the standard four points for a win or two for a draw, a team scoring four or more tries during a match will receive an additional league table point, as will a team losing by 7 or fewer points. Additionally, to ensure that a team winning all of its five matches (a Grand Slam) will also win the Championship, three bonus points will be awarded. Bonus points and the new tackle directives (there is a distinct possibility of more yellow and red card this year, 14 v 13 spells are going to lead to a lot of space) should lead to a more open and higher scoring tournament than recent years, weather permitting.

The teams play either three home/two away or two home/three away matches (in alternate years) the split of which can be crucial depending on the strengths of the teams in any given year. The uneven spread of three home matches and two away, or three away matches and two home, can decide the outcome of the championship.

Current outright odds (with bookmaker offering the best price shown) are as follows

England 10/11 (Coral)

Ireland 5/2 (William Hill)

Wales 9/1 (Coral)

France 14/1 (William Hill)

Scotland 25/1 (Betfair Sportsbook)

Italy 1000/1 (Bet365)

No Grand Slam is 10/11 favourite (Betfred), England 9/4 (Paddy Power) Ireland 6/1 (William Hill)

Team by Team:

England

Fixtures: R1 France (h), R2 Wales (a), R3 Italy (h) R4 Scotland (h), R5 Ireland (a)

A perfect 2016 for England, 13 games unbeaten starting with a 2016 Six Nations Grand Slam followed by a 3-0 away victory in Australia in the summer and wins against South Africa, Fiji and Australia in the autumn Internationals.

Three games at home this year and likely to be unbeaten headed into the last match in Dublin which shapes up as a championship decider. England will have to overcome the loss of a series of key players through injury but such is their strength of depth that it would be a major surprise to find them outside the top two at the end of the Six Nations

Ireland

Fixtures: R1 Scotland (a), R2 Italy (a), R3 France (h), R4 Wales (a), R5 England (h)

Ireland lost their Six Nations title early in the tournament, drawing at home to Wales and losing in France and England before finishing with two home wins over Italy and Scotland.

The June tour to South Africa started with a win in Cape Town but a series win eluded he after a late host comeback in Johannesburg and a narrow defeat in the decider in Port Elizabeth.

The November internationals started with a memorable victory over the All Blacks in Chicago and although New Zealand took revenge in Dublin two weeks later, Ireland finished the year with a home win over the Wallabies.

Ireland should at least run England close and the final match of the Championship in Dublin should be a belter and will probably decide the championship, the Irish provinces have improved dramatically this year and there is a wealth of talent in the 40 man squad.

Wales

Fixtures: R1 Italy (a), R2 England (h), R3 Scotland (a), R4 Ireland (h), R5 France (a)

A 25-21 defeat to England at Twickenham in Round 4 cost Wales the Six Nations title last year. In June they were competitive for the bulk of the first two tests against the All Blacks before succumbing to late pressure and they were thrashed in the third contest to lose the series 3-0. In the November internationals in Cardiff Wales were trounced by Australia but they recovered to complete narrow wins over Argentina and Japan before beating South Africa.

Wales are a very experienced team who have two main challenges in this six nations a) transitioning their style of play to be more expansive and create more opportunities, which has been a struggle for over two years and b) overcoming a lack of depth/power in the tight forwards. In their favour they do have both tournament favourites England then Ireland at home and by winning one of those games could have a major say in the outcome of the championship.

France

Fixtures: R1 England (a), R2 Scotland (h), R3 Ireland (a), R4 Italy (a), R5 Wales (h)

France started heir 2016 campaign with two narrow home wins, surviving a scare against Italy and then edging out Ireland. They lost their next three matches in Wales and Scotland and at home to England by margins of 9 to 11 points. A two match series in Argentina in June was shared 1-1 and two big home tests in November saw them 23-25 to an under-strength Australia side before they gave the All Blacks a decent game in Paris, albeit in a 24-19 defeat.

France are not the best travelers and have three away games (and the toughest start of all, at Twickenham) and beyond that the major challenge is convert their talent into consistent performances, an achievement lacking for the last five years where their highest six nations finish has been 3^rd.

France played with a lot of ambition last year and off-loaded at every opportunity. Against New Zealand and Australia in the autumn they really cut down on that and played far more pragmatically. Their team for Twickenham tomorrow contains a massive pack, and it should be a real arm-wrestle.

Scotland

Fixtures: R1 Ireland (h), R2 France (a), R3 Wales (h), R4 England (a), R5 Italy (h)

The Scots lost narrowly at home to England and away to Wales before completing back to back wins in Italy and at home to France in last year’s tournament. They came unstuck in Dublin in their final match and in June they won both tests away to Japan. The November internationals included another last gasp defeat to Australia and a narrow win over Argentina.

This year Scotland should really make substantial progress, and Glasgow’s performance in making the knock-out stages of the European Champions Cup for the first time, with the bulk of the national side, is an encouraging portent. A talented crop of players  has lacked the experience to close out games for two years now. 

Italy

Fixtures: R1 Wales (h), R2 Ireland (h), R3 England (a), R4 France (h), R5 Scotland (a)

A 23-21 defeat to France in Paris in Round 1 last year was as near as Italy got to a victory in the 2016 Six Nations. In June a narrow defeat to Argentina was followed by wins over USA and Canada and in November a 68-10 hiding off the All Blacks in Rome was followed by easily their best result of the year, a 20-18 victory over South Africa in Florence.

A new coaching set up is in place, but realistically with the Italian provinces still performing poorly both in Europe and the Pro 12 one win would be progress for Italy this Championship.

Market thoughts:

England are clearly the most likely winners but odds-on and having to play in Dublin aren’t great value for the title. Ireland at 5/2 should be in with a shot of winning the Championship going into that last game where they are currently 5/4 to beat England.

None of Wales, Scotland and France should threaten the top two for the title, or finish below Italy for the wooden spoon but there is a good argument for improvement from France and Scotland in particular and an upset result along the way over the next two months is certainly possible. No Grand Slam looks most likely

I am going to offer up two “at a price” each way against the field in a competitive looking top Six Nations try-scorer market. Four tries won this in each of the last two years (George North, Jonathan Joseph). My two would be Tommy Seymour (Scotland wing) and Liam Williams (Wales wing/full-back) both at 25/1+. Both great finishers (Seymour in particular has been in blistering form for Glasgow in the Pro12) and every chance we’ll see them with 2+ tries over the tournament and around and about the top 4 we’d need for a place at least.

There is a particular opportunity here because the odds on favourites England, presumably likely to be the top points scorers in the championship, have four wingers vying for two spots when fit (May, Nowell, Watson, Daly) and rotation and thus splitting the try-scoring tallies is likely over the course of their five games.

5 points each-way Tommy Seymour Top six nations Try Scorer  28/1 Ladbrokes and SkyBet 25 /1 Bet Victor (1/4 1,2,3,4)

5 points each-way Liam Williams Top six nations Try Scorer 33/1 William Hill and Paddy Power 28/1 Betfred (1/4 1,2,3,4)

Brodders Football Analysis

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The Road to Riches Weekend of 28th-29th January

** A date for your diary: Our 2017 pre Cheltenham dinner with our expert panel will be on Saturday March 11th in London **

Coming Up this weekend…

- Football, FA Cup fourth round weekend. The African Cup of Nations Quarter finals.

- Racing, Jumps meetings at Cheltenham, Doncaster and Uttoxeter. All weather meetings at Kempton Park and Lingfield.

- Tennis, The final weekend of the Australian Open.

- Golf, on the European Tour the Qatar Masters in Doha. On the USPGA the Farmers Insurance Open at Torrey Pines.

- Cricket, The second T20I between India and England in Nagpur. In Australia the Big Bash League final between the Perth Scorchers and the Sydney Sixers..

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Before the first anniversary of his election win, new FIFA President Gianni Infantino's ruling Council approved his flagship manifesto pledge and from 2026, 16 more teams will qualify for the World Cup finals. Infantino’s plan involves 48 nations playing in 16 groups of three teams, with the top two progressing to a 32-team knockout stage. There are 211 countries in FIFA and so nearly a quarter of them will qualify. Infantino’s original proposal was for a 40-team World Cup, made to persuade floating voters from various FIFA confederations during the presidential campaign.

FIFA’s internal research has suggested the expanded format will increase revenues by from the finals by £800m, raising total profits from an event to £3.5bn. In addition there will be additional places for under-represented continents like Africa, which only has five places in Russia in 2018 whilst Europe will have 14 finalists, despite being similar-sized confederations. The 48-team format adds no additional burden for players because teams can still only play a maximum of seven games. The number of games rises from 64 to 80 but the tournament is still completed in 32 days and within 12 stadiums.

Despite those benefits, there are many who have criticised the expansion, particularly among the sport's traditional powerhouses. The German federation president said: "My main worry is that the attractiveness of the matches will suffer."

His view is probably influnced by Euro 2016 which expanded from 16 to 24 finalists and produced some humdrum group stage games. The more limited teams became adept at defensive tactics designed to frustrate more talented opposition. Some of these “limited” teams did well, though, and some bigger teams struggled to adjust to their tactics.

One commentator opined that a 48-team World Cup "will only add to the ennui around the international game. What it will do is reward the pedestrian, the unexceptional, those who could not exist in a genuinely elite environment." Another countered that “"A three-team group offers intriguing possibilities There will be little room for countries trying to play it safe in the opening match. As for FIFA's floated idea of every group match being settled by penalty shoot-outs to prevent a result in the final match being contrived, why not? We are happy to accept that happens in all the knock-out games, so why be so precious about the group matches?”

The new format ensures there will be fewer early eye-catching head-to-heads between leading sides. With the tournament starting with 16 groups of three, the potential 16 European finalists will be separated. So there won't be a repeat of games such as the 2014 group stages when Germany played Portugal and England met Italy.

"The general level of football is increasing all over the world," Infantino said. "Increasing the size of teams that can participate in the World Cup will increase the investment in football development."

Whilst of course the original plans for this expansion were all about FIFA politics elections and money, Infantino’s argument for the expansion of the World Cup to accelerate global growth of the game is clear. It remains to be seen whether it will be a televisual spectacle to match the tournament we are used to.

Brodders Football Analysis

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£10 per point on every recommended bet since launch in Feb 2013 would be winning £32,622 (as at 13th January 2017)

All bets have an ROI +4.21% and Horse Racing has a ROI of +6.25%

A £4000 bank (see FAQ re bank-roll requirements) betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £36,620 an 816% increase

 

The Road to Riches: Weekend of 21st-22nd January

** A date for your diary: Our 2017 pre Cheltenham dinner with our expert panel will be on Saturday March 11th in London **

Coming Up this weekend…

- Football, The Premier League fixtures include Manchester City v Tottenham Hotspur. African Cup of Nations Group fixtures continue.

- NFL, The Conference Championships to decide the Super-Bowl teams. In the NFC the Atlanta Falcons host the Green Bay Packers, in the AFC the New England Patriots host the Pittsburgh Steelers.

- Racing, Jumps meetings at Ascot, Haydock and Taunton. All-weather meetings at Lingfield and Newcastle.

- Tennis, The middle weekend of the Australian Open.

- Golf, the Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship and on the USPGA the CareerBuilder Challenge at PGA West

- Cricket, England’s ODI series in India concludes with the 3^rd match of the series in Kolkota. The Big Bash League continues in Australia with the final matches in the Group stages.

- Rugby Union, the final round of European Champions Cup Pool games over the weekend

NFL: The Play-Offs and Super Bowl LI

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Free Tip

European Rugby Champions Cup: Round 6 Toulouse v Connacht (Sunday 3.15pm)

The final round of pool matches in this season’s European Champions Cup take place this weekend. So far Leinster, Munster, Clermont and Saracens have qualified for the last eight and games this weekend will decide not only the full quarter-final line up but the seedings, with the top four teams gaining all-important home advantage.

Toulouse at home to Connacht is the game of the weekend. Last weekend Toulouse put up a fine performance against Wasps in Coventry and led with a few minutes to go, at which point they were in control of the group. They lost to an opportunist Wasps try with the last play of the game. Connacht meanwhile beat Zebre comfortably and currently lead the group on 18 points.

Wasps are highly likely to reach 22 points with a five point win at Zebre and have the tiebreaker over Connacht so to win the group the Irish province is going to need a bonus point win here, which has to be seen as highly unlikely at Toulouse. Thus it is more likely they are fighting for one of the three runners up spots and losing by less than seven points is the first crucial aim.

Toulouse need to win with a bonus point or stop Connacht getting a bonus point of their own to make it into the last-eight as a very dangerous wild card side

In some ways the fortunes of Toulouse, one of the powerhouses of French Rugby, mirrors those of the national side. In an era where French clubs in general ruled European competition playing with flair and imagination Toulouse won the predecessor competition to the Champions Cup the Heineken cup in 2010 and were French top 14 champions in 2011 and 2012. From 2013 onwards they’ve only made the quarter-finals in Europe twice and not at all in the last two years. They’ve also been less successful domestically, slipping to 5^th in the Top 14 last year.

This year, things are looking up. The style is more attractive to watch, with the off-loading game creating more opportunities and they are 4^th in the Top 14 and one result away from making it back to the European knockout stages. In common with many French teams there is a big split between home and away form. They’ve won 6 out of 7 home Top 14 games and have only won 3 of 9 away from home.

Connacht were the “Leicester City” of rugby in winning the Pro 12 last year and like the comparison domestic form has ebbed away this season with only 4 wins in 12 games in their league. Their home form in Europe where they beat Wasps, Toulouse and Zebre has them in contention for the last eight still, despite a 15 point loss away at Wasps.

Logic says Toulouse here but that’s no surprise. Toulouse are as short as 1/7 to win the game (Connacht 6/1) and 13 point handicap favourites. Connacht will be fighting tooth and nail for at least a losing bonus point, which would mean they comfortably cover the handicap. They are going to struggle against Toulouse’s power up front though. Toulouse have to score at least four tries and get a bonus point of their own, after all. A Toulouse win by 2-3 scores looks the most likely result to me, which in winning margin markets translates to Toulouse by 11-20 points

At the time of writing most bookmakers are offering 11-15 and 16-20 which when dutched at top prices (PaddyPower) produces 2/1+. Betfair Sportsbook offer us 11-20 at 13/5. I’d take any quote I saw over 2/1 as markets populate over the next 48 hours.

10 points Toulouse to win by 11-20 points at 13/5 Betfair Sportsbook

(or 5 points each Toulouse to win by 11-15 points and 16-20 points at 5/1 William Hill)

Kolpak and Brexit

There has been a recent rush of South African International cricketers joining English counties ahead of the 2017 season and becoming unavailable for international selection. Amongst six South African “Kolpak” players this winter Kyle Abbott and Rilee Rossouw have joined Hampshire and David Wiese has moved to Sussex in the last fortnight. More are expected to follow imminently.

South African domestic cricket pays significantly less than English county cricket and with the South African rand weakening the gap is widening. South African cricket also has a quota system. In September last year, Cricket South Africa announced that a maximum of five white players can be picked in their International teams. This means some white players, such as Abbott and Rossouw, may not get as many chances to play for South Africa and are hence choosing to move to England.

Each English county is only allowed to field one overseas player (or two in the NatWest Blast) and by signing Kolpak players they can effectively upgrade their squads with overseas players without counting them as such. Last season there were 12 Kolpak players in county cricket. In Rugby Union, English rugby teams had no fewer than 72 Kolpak signings in their squads.

The Kolpak rule means that citizens of countries that are part of European Union Association Agreements, which are free trade treaties between the EU and other countries, have the right to work in EU countries.

The rule was made when Maros Kolpak, a Slovak handball player, appealed to the European Court of Justice that he should not be considered a non-EU player in the German handball league as he was a resident of Germany and a citizen of a country that had an Association Agreement with the EU. Kolpak had lost his contract with his German club as they already had two non-EU players. The court ruled in his favour.

South Africa is part of a trade deal with the EU, the Cotonou Agreement, and Kolpak applies. In 2009, the British Home Office ruled that to sign a Kolpak deal, a player must either have a valid work permit for four years in the UK or have earned a specified number of caps in international cricket.

Kolpak players over 18 do not qualify to play for England until they have played seven years for a county and have gained citizenship. Kolpak players can return to play for their home country at the conclusion of their overseas deals.

One of the many potential side effects that went un-noticed during the EU referendum campaign (incredible since there can’t have been many more important things to consider ) was what the result would mean for county cricket. Once Britain leaves the European Union, Kolpak contracts will not be possible. Hence why there is a rush now from counties and Kolpak-eligible players to sign deals before Brexit takes effect and we now know the UK leaves the single market and the ECHJ jurisdiction.

Players are currently able to sign multi-year contracts that will last beyond Brexit. Yet they may still have to leave after Britain departs the EU and that’s likely to produce conflicts between players, clubs, governing bodies and the Home Office. So far, existing Kolpak players who have sought guidance on this from the government haven’t had an answer back.

The debate about the merits of Kolpaks in cricket has been fierce. Some think that the influx of foreigners deprives young English players of opportunities. There is though also recognition that they raise standards across the game.

Brodders Football Analysis

Brodders Football Analysis: January 2017 to date +£2310 betting £10 a point, +ROI 45.7%

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Betting Emporium results

The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS

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The Road to Riches: Weekend of 14th-15th January

 

Brodders Soccer Write Ups - now including African Cup of Nations - subscribe for £50 a month here (cancel any time)

Bet365 - still offer the best sign up bonus of all. If you don't have an account you need one for the AFCON. Deposit £10 or more and get a 100% matched amount to bet with up to a max of £200. – This is not a just free bet, stakes are returned on winners. So deposit £200 and get £400 to bet with on the African Nations Cup. - CLAIM NOW

Bet365 are also offering streaming for the below so that you can watch the AFCON!

Matches are listed below with exclusions.

 

14-Jan	Saturday	16:00	Soccer	CAF African Cup of Nations	Gabon v Guinea-Bissau	Not available in Gabon, Guinea-Bissau, MENA and USA
14-Jan	Saturday	19:00	Soccer	CAF African Cup of Nations	Burkina Faso v Cameroon	Not available in Burkina Faso, Cameroon, MENA and USA
15-Jan	Sunday	16:00	Soccer	CAF African Cup of Nations	Algeria v Zimbabwe	Not available in Zimbabwe, MENA and USA
15-Jan	Sunday	19:00	Soccer	CAF African Cup of Nations	Tunisia v Senegal	Not available in  Senegal, MENA and USA
16-Jan	Monday	16:00	Soccer	CAF African Cup of Nations	Côte d'Ivoire v Togo	Not available in Côte d'Ivoire, Togo, MENA and USA
16-Jan	Monday	19:00	Soccer	CAF African Cup of Nations	Congo DR v Morocco	Not available in Congo DR, MENA and USA
17-Jan	Tuesday	16:00	Soccer	CAF African Cup of Nations	Ghana v Uganda	Not available in Ghana, Uganda, MENA and USA
17-Jan	Tuesday	19:00	Soccer	CAF African Cup of Nations	Mali v Egypt	Not available in  MENA and USA
18-Jan	Wednesday	16:00	Soccer	CAF African Cup of Nations	Gabon v Burkina Faso	Not available in Gabon, Burkina Faso, MENA and USA
18-Jan	Wednesday	19:00	Soccer	CAF African Cup of Nations	Cameroon v Guinea-Bissau	Not available in Cameroon, Guinea-Bissau, MENA and USA
19-Jan	Thursday	16:00	Soccer	CAF African Cup of Nations	Algeria v Tunisia	Not available in MENA and USA
19-Jan	Thursday	19:00	Soccer	CAF African Cup of Nations	Senegal v Zimbabwe	Not available in Senegal, Zimbabwe, MENA and USA
20-Jan	Friday	16:00	Soccer	CAF African Cup of Nations	Côte d'Ivoire v Congo DR	Not available in Côte d'Ivoire, Congo DR, MENA and USA
20-Jan	Friday	19:00	Soccer	CAF African Cup of Nations	Morocco v Togo	Not available in Togo, MENA and USA
21-Jan	Saturday	16:00	Soccer	CAF African Cup of Nations	Ghana v Mali	Not available in Ghana, MENA and USA
21-Jan	Saturday	19:00	Soccer	CAF African Cup of Nations	Egypt v Uganda	Not available in Uganda, MENA and USA
22-Jan	Sunday	19:00	Soccer	CAF African Cup of Nations	Cameroon v Gabon	Not available in Cameroon, Gabon, MENA and USA
22-Jan	Sunday	19:00	Soccer	CAF African Cup of Nations	Guinea-Bissau v Burkina Faso	Not available in Guinea-Bissau, Burkina Faso, MENA and USA
23-Jan	Monday	19:00	Soccer	CAF African Cup of Nations	Senegal v Algeria	Not available in Senegal, MENA and USA
23-Jan	Monday	19:00	Soccer	CAF African Cup of Nations	Zimbabwe v Tunisia	Not available in Zimbabwe, MENA and USA
24-Jan	Tuesday	19:00	Soccer	CAF African Cup of Nations	Morocco v Côte d'Ivoire	Not available in Côte d'Ivoire, MENA and USA
24-Jan	Tuesday	19:00	Soccer	CAF African Cup of Nations	Togo v Congo DR	Not available in Togo, Congo DR, MENA and USA

 

Coming Up this weekend…

- Football. The Premier League returns, including Leicester City v Chelsea on Saturday evening and Manchester United v Liverpool on Sunday. The African Cup of Nations starts on Saturday.

- NFL. The Divisional round of the play-offs. Two games on Saturday, two games on Sunday as the top two teams in each conference host the wild card game winners.

- Racing Jumps meetings at Kempton Park, Warwick and Wetherby, All-weather meetings at Lingfield and Wolverhampton.

- Tennis: In the week before the Australian Open, ATP Events in Sydney and Auckland.

- Golf: the BMW South African Open on the European Tour and the Sony Hawaii Open on the USPGA

- Cricket, England’s ODI series in India begins in Pune on Sunday. The Big Bash League continues in Australia.

- Rugby Union- the penultimate round of European Champions Cup Pool games over the weekend

NFL: The Play-Offs and Super Bowl LI

Playoffs package includes: 14th/15th January: Divisional Playoffs, 22nd January: Conference Playoffs. Anyone who signs up to our Playoffs package for £50 will automatically get the £25 Super-Bowl package for free

Super Bowl package includes all Neil's Super Bowl game analysis PLUS all his infamous prop bets.

£50	NFL Playoffs (Jan 7th - 22nd 2017)
£25	Super Bowl LI, Houston, Texas (Sunday Feb 5th 2017) - Includes all of Neil's prop bets on the Super Bowl.

Australian Open Tennis by Nigel Seeley 

Australian Open Tennis Championships (Jan 16th - 29th 2017)

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The full package is £50 and includes the outrights, all Nigel's match analysis and details of all the bets that we have.

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Free Tip

European Rugby Champions Cup

Saturday 5.30pm Glasgow v Munster (Sky Sports 2)

With two rounds of pool games to go before the line up for the Quarter-finals is decided, this is the key match in pool 1 where Munster are top on 16 points and Glasgow second on 13 points. Last weekend Munster played superbly against Racing 92 in their re-arranged fixture. The French champions were poor but that should not detract from Munster’s performance in winning in Paris.

Munster have been also-rans in Europe for several years but have matured nicely this season. A teak tough pack features one of the break out players in European rugby in back rower CJ Stander alongside veteran leaders such as Peter O’Mahoney and Donnacha Ryan while they have the form number nine in European rugby in Connor Murray with, if conditions allow, plenty of flair outside in the likes of Zebo and Earls

Glasgow are superbly coached by Gregor Townsend and their team, as befits the most successful Scottish franchise, forms the core of the Scotland national team featuring the likes of Stuart Hogg, Finn Russell, Tommy Seymour, and Jonny Gray. Glasgow has found domestic form in the Pro 12 in the past month and beat Leicester comfortably at Scotstoun earlier in the pool too.

Munster are in a position to qualify as best runners-up should they lose on Saturday but there is no floor for Glasgow. They have to win this game and, probably, their final match in the East Midlands (although a best-placed runners-up berth is possible with seventeen or eighteen points). Glasgow’s issue, compared to Munster, has been picking up bonus points having got only one for scoring four or more tries. Munster have picked up three bonus points.

The two teams have played already twice this season. In the ERCC Munster won 38-17 at home despite playing much of the match with 14 men and in the Pro 12 more recently Munster won 16-15 in Glasgow. Munster have one key factor in their favour for games such as these, namely their defence. So far in the pool they have conceded 42 points and only three tries in 4 games, the best in the competition.  In the Pro 14, where they sit second, they’ve conceded just 155 points in 12 games. This defence will I think make the difference here in a real 50-50 game.

Munster are 6/5 underdogs for the game (or 10/11 +2 points on the handicap) These prices are fine but bet I like is the “winning margin” and for Munster to win a close one

9 points Munster to win by 1-10 points 9/4 Coral 21/10 Betfair Sportsbook

Brighton in Bloom

Brighton have lost in the Championship play-offs in three of the last four seasons and last season would have been promoted with their points total in 19 of the last 20 seasons. Going into this season, Ante post prices had Brighton around 10-1 for the title behind the short priced favourites Newcastle at 2-1.

After the first half of this season they are top of the Championship, 17 games unbeaten. and have lost only 2 out of 24 matches conceding 15 goals with clean sheets in nearly 60% of games. Longer term, Brighton have only lost 7 of their last 70 Championship games conceding 57 goals

For Brighton fans it has been a long road to this point. From leaving the Goldstone Ground their journey has taken them to 11 points adrift at the bottom of the league, playing 70 miles away in Gillingham and then the Withdean athletics stadium and then multiple planning applications for a new ground

The key moment arrived in 2009, when Tony Bloom assumed majority control of the club and he has since invested more than £200million in the club including £93m funding central to the move to the Amex Stadium.

This investment has offset the lack of parachute payments that so many Championship clubs at the top of the division in any given year have had. Brighton announced a loss of £25.9m for the financial year to the end of the 2015-16 season following on from a loss of £10.4m the year before, The larger loss was mainly because of investment in the playing squad. Brighton remained compliant with FFP regulations which permit a club's losses to reach an aggregate of £39m over a three-season period.

"Any Championship club without parachute payments wishing to compete for promotion will inevitably make significant losses," Bloom said at the time of the results. "It remains a delicate balancing act for the board as we strive to achieve our ultimate aim."

After the last play off failure in May the short term option would have been to balance the books and consolidate. Instead the club rejected bids of around £25m total for key players Dunk, Knockaert and Stephens and stuck with Hughton, giving him a new 4 year contract. There was only modest investment in new players but retention of players and off-field stability has given Brighton continuity that has paid off handsomely.

A few years ago Brighton played beautiful football under Gus Poyet, without necessarily the end result to show for it. After Poyet there were mis-steps along the way, notably under Sami Hyppia in the first half of the 2014-15 season but the subsequent appointment of Hughton has added a pragmatism to Brighton’s approach.

FFP rules and losses to date do give this season a “now or never” feel for Brighton but if they do make it the combination of investment, a big catchment area for supporters and the stadium/training facilities mean there is the potential for the club to be in the Premier League for a long time. For Brighton fans, who since the mid 1980s have seen all the lows league football has to offer and with the big game against Newcastle coming up, their team is currently eight points clear of third place, 13/10 to win the title, 1/9 to go up and promotion to the Premier League which was unthinkable only a few years ago is now tantalisingly close.

Brodders Football Analysis

Brodders will be following the African Cup of Nations, and the Preview is live now with outright group and top goalscorer bets.

“I'm going to be doing a preview of the African Cup of Nations and covering that tournament with the first games taking place on Saturday.'

Last year Brodders followers betting just £10 a point won £15,780 with a ROI + 11.09%. Sign up to Brodders match analysis and recommended bets here for £50 a month. You are free to cancel at any time.

Euro & other Football by Brodders (monthly)

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- The Euros 2016 for subscribers. Results: +£4,098.30 (betting £10 a point, average bet about £150) +ROI 31.43%

- Long term profit over 3 years. Following all bets subscribers are winning £20,216 (£10 a point, average bet £150) +ROI 5.71%

Bookmaker reviews and advice

Getting the best price available is very important for all those who take their betting seriously.

Please open an account with all those bookmakers on the page on this link that you do not already have an account with using the links provided.

There are literally hundreds of pounds on offer from bookmakers just for signing up through Bettingemporium.com

Betting Emporium results

The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS

£10 per point on every recommended bet since launch in Feb 2013 would be winning £34,185 (as at 26th October 2016)

All bets have an ROI +4.75% and Horse Racing has a ROI of +6.84%

A £4000 bank (see FAQ re bank-roll requirements) betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £38, 185 an 855% increase