Weekly Articles "Road to Riches" by Rich 'Tighty' Prew
The Road to Riches Weekend of 19th-20th August
Coming Up this weekend
- Football, Premier League matches include Tottenham Hotspur v Chelsea on Sunday.
- Racing, Flat meetings at Bath, Doncaster, Newbury, Newmarket and Ripon. Over the jumps at Market Rasen and Perth.
- Tennis, ATP Western and Southern Open in Cincinnati.
- Golf, USPGA Wyndham Championship and on the European Tour the Paul Lawrie Matchplay Golf.
- Cricket, the first test between England and West Indies at Edgbaston, the first day-night Test in this country and the final matches of the Nat West T20 Blast Group Stages.
- Rugby Union, the start of the Rugby Championship with Australia v New Zealand and South Africa v Argentina on Saturday.
Redzonesports
At Betting Emporium we know how hard it is to get bets on at the prices we want. We are always on the look out for trustworthy firms who will lay a decent bet at a decent price.
Some friends of Neil and Joe are involved with a great new set up specialising in American sports, notably NFL, baseball and basketball. it is headed up by Steve Baumohl (former head of US sports at Sporting Index). They do also cover the other markets but in ones like the NFL they will be betting 1.95 each of two rather than the UK standard 10/11 in the handicaps and totals markets and over a season this will make a decent difference to us all.
They will lay a decent bet and won't close you down if you win. We will be using them and suggest that you give them a try too. They also take decent sized bets on the Premier League and betting to 104%. They are called Redzonesports and you can open your account here
EXCLUSIVE BONUS:
For the first 30 days as a special promo for our members they will be offering a deposit £100 get £100 extra bonus. In order to get this bonus your FIRST DEPOSIT MUST BE EXACTLY £100 and you must enter code EMPORIUM. (there will be a 2x turnover requirement so you will need to stake £400 or more at odds of 2.0 or better). You can obviously make further deposits straight away. Open your Redzonesports account here
Today I have published the first of two NFL Ante post reports: “NFL 2017 Season Outright and Divisional Preview” which is FREE to read and can be found here
Coming up on Betting Emporium
|
NFL 2017 - Neil's picks (weeks 1-17) regular season |
|
|
US Open Tennis 28th Aug - 10th Sep 2017 |
See what Joe Beevers has to say about 'Beat the Streak' at i-pools. The chance to win £1,000,000 for a fiver!
http://www.bettingemporium.com/pages/view/beat-the-streak-at-i-poolscouk-and-win-1000000
Free Tip
Rugby Championship Australia v New Zealand Saturday 19th August
10.30am Kick Off BST, Sydney
This game sees the start of the 2017 Rugby Championship, played between the four major southern hemisphere teams.
Sonny Bill Williams returns to the New Zealand starting line-up for Saturday's Rugby Championship opener against Australia. Williams, who was red-carded in the second Test of the British and Irish Lions series, completed his four-game suspension earlier this month and returns to the All Blacks midfield. Damian McKenzie and Liam Squire were the surprise selections in Steve Hansen's match-day 23, the New Zealand coach making six changes to the team that drew the third Test against the Lions. Five of those come in the backs with McKenzie selected at full-back. Ben Smith and Rieko Ioane are named on the wing while Crotty partners Williams at centre.
New Zealand are seeking a fourth successive Rugby Championship title while they have held the Bledisloe Cup since 2003.
This may not be a vintage New Zealand team yet but they are undoubtedly favourites to win another rugby championship despite ongoing transitions at several positions in the team.
What is clear from the latest Australian squad is that coach Mchael cheika is keen to bring a freshness to the side, and has handed out squad call-ups to 11 uncapped players, seven of whom have never experienced a squad call-up at all. Some experienced players such as Cooper and Hgginbotham have been discarded too
The 2017 Super Rugby campaign has been a tough one for the Australian franchises. For the first time in history, the Australian sides failed to pick up a single victory over a New Zealand franchise during a regular-Super Rugby campaign, losing all 25 games. Against the South African sides, who have not been at their strongest either they lost ten times only picking up four victories, while they also lost more times against the Jaguares than they won: losing three times and winning twice.
Out of a total of 45 fixtures against the Kiwi, South African and Argentinian sides, the five Australian franchises won six, drew once and lost 38.
Added to this, Australia lost to a Scotland side in Sydney minus Stuart Hogg, Greig Laidlaw and Tommy Seymour in June. Cheika can still call on the talent of Israel Folau, Michael Hooper, Dane Haylett-Petty, Will Genia, Bernard Foley and Stephen Moore but they are surrounded by a lot less experience in the team and squad..
Since losing the 2015 World Cup final to New Zealand, Australia have won fewer than half of their Tests. This upcoming Rugby Championship is pivotal for Cheika’s team and could go some way to determining the direction Australian rugby will take over the next few years.
New Zealand understandably are prohibitive favourites for this game at 1/9 outright, Australia 6/1. Australia are 16 point handicap underdogs at 10/11 generally.
My idea of a bet here is in the winning margin market, where New Zealand can be backed to win by 11-20 points at 11/4 with Betfair Sportsbook and 12/5 with Coral.
8 points New Zealand to win by 11-20 points 16/5 Betfair Sportsbook 11/4 Ladbrokes 12/5 Coral.
Expectations
Already used by many clubs, analysts and bettors for several years the Expected Goals metric from Opta is moving into the mainstream, featuring on Match of the Day this season.
An expected goal shows the percentage likelihood of a player scoring from a position on the pitch and shows how many goals a player or a team should have scored based on the chances they had in a game or over the course of a season. Each chance is ascribed a 'quality value' (xG) based on thousands of chances analysed by Opta over the history of the Premier League. The higher that figure, with one the maximum value, the more likely a chance will be converted. xG is a way of establishing whether a player is scoring more or less goals than his chances should dictate. .
Each of last season's top eight premier league goal-scorers, the exception being Sergio Aguero, scored more goals than their expected goals would suggest. Harry Kane scored 29 goals, 10 goals more than expected by the quality of chances given to him or created by him.
Opta's key xG factor are:
- Distance from goal
- Angle of the shot
- Was it a shot or a header?
- Has the player just gone around an opponent?
- Was it a one on one or were defenders involved?
- What was the assist like? (e.g. long ball, pull-back, cross, through ball)
- In what part of the game did the chance occur? (e.g. open play, direct free-kick, corner kick)
- Is it a rebound?
Expected goals are useful when trying to anticipate turning points and reversions to mean ahead of betting markets, and in counteracting media/fan over-reactions to short term results.
Juventus in 2015-16 are an example cited by the BBC. They won only three of their first 10 games but analysis shows they were vastly outperforming that level of results. When results turned for the better and “G” became more correlated with “xG” they eventually won the title.
It can help when looking at both ends of the pitch, not only expected goals but expected goals against can be analysed. A team may be good or bad defensively, but might be doing better or worse in actual goals conceded than the xA statistic shows us
It is of course very early in this Premier League season but we can look at a few of last weekend’s games to illustrate what we might be looking for:
Southampton Swansea finished 0-0. We could see with our own eyes on highlights that Southampton created a lot of chances. The xG for two sides was Southampton 2.2 Swansea 0.3
Chelsea-Burnley? Down to 10 men early Chelsea were 3-0 down and lost 3-2. The xG? 1.3 and 0.7 respectively. Nothing to get too gloomy about for the home team, or too bullish about for the away team.
Crystal Palace-Huddersfield? Huddersfield won 3-0 but the xG? 0.9-0.6 (plus an own goal)
Everton-Stoke? 1-0 to Everton. Stoke? Their xG was lowest in the division over the weekend at 0.3 but Everton were only at 0.7 too
On Sunday, Newcastle and Tottenham began slowly and xG was well less than 1 for both teams in the first half. Then Newcastle were reduced to ten men and their xG understandably remained low. Tottenham’s leapt to 1.7.
Returning again to last season, and broadening out to a longer time frame the cumulative Expected goals for and against were as follows for last season's champions and this season's favourites:
Manchester City xG 79.4 xA (expected goals against) 28.4 xGD (expected goal difference) 51.1
Chelsea xG 64 xA 28.5 xGD 35.5
Statistics like this, over and above discounting what has happened in transfer market, help explain the bullishness for City this season that saw them go off around 2/1 to regain the title.
Brodders Football Analysis
Sign up to Brodders match analysis and recommended bets here for £50 a month. You are free to cancel at any time.
Long term profit over 3+ years. Following all bets subscribers are winning £21,013 (£10 a point, average bet £150) +ROI 4.22% (correct at 11/07/17)
|
Euro & other Football by Brodders (monthly) |
|
|
|
|
Bookmaker reviews and advice
Getting the best price available is very important for all those who take their betting seriously.
Please open an account with all those bookmakers on the page on this link that you do not already have an account with using the links provided.
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
If you had bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since our launch in Feb 2013 you would be winning + £38,652.30.
All bets have an ROI +4.2%.
A £4000 bank (see FAQ re bank-roll requirements) betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £42,652 an 966% increase
(correct at 11/07/17)
The Road to Riches Weekend of 12th-13th August 2017
Coming Up this weekend
- Football, the start of the Premier League season
- Racing, Flat meetings at Ascot, Ayr, Haydock, Lingfield, Newmarket and Redcar
- Tennis, ATP Rogers Cup in Montreal
- Golf, the USPGA Championship at Quail Hollow North Carolina
- Athletics, the final weekend of the World Championships in London
- Cricket, the penultimate weekend of the Nat West T20 Blast Group Stages.
Coming up on Betting Emporium
|
NFL 2017 - Neil's picks (weeks 1-17) regular season |
|
|
US Open Tennis 28th Aug - 10th Sep 2017 |
See what Joe Beevers has to say about 'Beat the Streak' at i-pools. The chance to win £1,000,000 for a fiver!
http://www.bettingemporium.com/pages/view/beat-the-streak-at-i-poolscouk-and-win-1000000
Free Tip
Millwall v Bolton Wanderers Sky Bet Championship Saturday 3pm
Two promoted teams meet in the second league game of the season on Saturday. Both lost their opening games, Millwall 1-0 at Nottingham Forest and Bolton 3-2 at home to Leeds.
Off the pitch the two sides are very different. Millwall, who won the league one play-offs, punch above their weight as they are financially very thrifty. Bolton are still struggling with the impact of over-spending under previous regimes, are under a transfer embargo (and facing a recently adjourned winding up petition) and the Football League has put salary cap and maximum squad size (23 professional players) restrictions on the club as part of their rules on clubs under embargo.
Bolton played pre-season with, to some social media amusement, up to ten trialists per game as they shopped around to find bargains.
In Bolton’s squad of 23 they lost three of their better players to injury in week one. Their star player ,midfielder Josh Vela, was ruled out long-term with an ankle injury, veteran centre back David Wheater had to play with a back injury and has been sent to a specialist this week and winger Sammy Amoebi, a star of the promotion campaign, was injured too. Bolton may have to seek permission from the Football League to add a player to their quota.
The squad is so thin that midweek in the League Cup, four first year scholars played. It is set to be a very long season for manager Phil Parkinson under the operating constraints.
Of course the embargo, squad restrictions and financial struggles are well known, so what is the angle here? Well almost every team in the division can be expected to be odds on at home to Bolton with the visitors in such a state of flux, with the possible exception of a Burton Albion.
So why for Saturday would Millwall be available at 21/20? It is, after all, a notoriously tough place to visit. The unfashionable nature of a promoted side with a low profile squad might be one reason. Millwall themselves are expected to struggle this season. They also lost at Forest a week ago.
This week, almost by accident, I found myself looking at the stats for that game. Millwall’s cumulative xG (expected goals) was calculated at 3.25, and Forest’s at 0.51 which the analyst who compiled the report suggested would mean an away win 92% of the time
The match was on Sky Sports and I went to watch the “highlights.” Forest won with one (cliché alert) “moment of magic”
I then read match reports and post match interviews
Nottingham Forest manager Mark Warburton said:
"Millwall were very good. They deserved something from the game. They were direct, they were effective. They won the first ball and created chances”.
Millwall manager Neil Harris said:
"We dominated the game against a really good Forest side. The players executed the game plan perfectly. We worked into good positions and created good chances. It was a top performance. “
I think Millwall should be odds on at home against Bolton as the almost the entire rest of the division would be.
10 points Millwall to beat Bolton Wanderers 11/10 Bet365 or Betfred.
A brave new dawn.
Last week the expansion of the Guinness Pro12 to 14 teams was confirmed for next season, following the addition of two South African franchises in the Cheetahs (from Bloemfontein) and the Kings (Port Elizabeth).
There has been consistent speculation for weeks that both South African outfits would join the competition run by the Celtic League, which currently includes four teams from Ireland and Wales plus two each from Scotland and Italy.
The South African Rugby Union, in agreement with SANZAAR, the governing body behind Super Rugby agreed to cut both sides from the tournament ahead of the 2018 season as part of a reduction from 18 to 15 teams..
A six-year deal has been agreed between SARU and the Pro12 with the inclusion of the South African teams handing the Pro12 a significant financial boost thanks to increased TV revenue of around £6 million per year.
The new 'Pro14' will see the teams split into two conferences of seven, made up of two sides from Ireland, two from Wales and one each from Scotland, Italy and South Africa.
The new Pro 14 is significant development in professional rugby, and could be the start of the game being structured by time zones, not hemispheres
Increasing frustration over the years from South African players and supporters regarding the travel times and time differencethat comes with playing in Super Rugby has often led to discussions over whether a competition with teams in Europe would be better for player welfare, given that for the majority of the year South Africa is only an hour's time difference ahead of the British Isles and Ireland.
Now with the arrival of the Cheetahs and Kings those theories can be put into practice, with the newcomers expected to play their overseas away fixtures in blocks to cut down on travel time back and forth between South Africa and Europe.
The Cheetahs and Kings are the only two South African sides to have never played in a Super Rugby final, finishing the current 2017 season in 13th and 11th place respectively. However, the Kings comfortably surpassed expectations in their second year back in the competition, winning six matches including a shock victory against the Waratahs in Sydney.
Meanwhile, the Cheetahs, despite being defensively suspect, have become one of the most attractive sides to watch in Super Rugby thanks to their dangerous wingers Raymond Rhule and Sergeal Petersen, who have both featured for South Africa within the last year.
Expectations for both sides will be low in their first season, as they adapt to new environments and styles of opponent. Adding them to the Pro12 marks a new chapter and adds a new level of interest to a league that has lagged behind the Aviva Premiership and France's Top 14.
New Pro 14 - significant development in professional rugby, could be the start of the game being structured by time zones, not hemispheres.
With little time delay for broadcasters, no jet lag and the promise of far more practical travel schedules, the Sharks, Stormers, Lions and Bulls may fancy a piece of this too. Super Rugby is in a state of flux and if rumours are to be believed the partnership between the big three southern hemisphere nations has soured somewhat. Whether it works remains to be seen,but the idea and ambition is laudable
For the old Pro 12, it looks well worth a shot. If it works, it might be a major step along a route where a final aim may be seeing South Africa play in the Six Nations.
Brodders Football Analysis
Sign up to Brodders match analysis and recommended bets here for £50 a month. You are free to cancel at any time.
Long term profit over 3+ years. Following all bets subscribers are winning £21,013(£10 a point, average bet £150) +ROI 4.22% (correct at 11/07/17)
|
Euro & other Football by Brodders (monthly) |
|
|
|
|
Bookmaker reviews and advice
Getting the best price available is very important for all those who take their betting seriously.
Please open an account with all those bookmakers on the page on this link that you do not already have an account with using the links provided.
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
If you had bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since our launch in Feb 2013 you would be winning + £38,652.30.
All bets have an ROI +4.2%.
A £4000 bank (see FAQ re bank-roll requirements) betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £42,652 an 966% increase
(correct at 11/07/17)
The Road to Riches Weekend of 5th-6th August
Coming Up this weekend
- Football, the start of the Sky Bet football Leagues seasons
- Racing, Flat meetings at Doncaster, the final day of Glorious Goodwood, Hamilton, Lingfield, Newmarket and Thirsk.
- Tennis, ATP Citi Open in Washington, ATP Mexico and ATP Kitzbuhel in Austria
- Golf, the World Golf Championships, WGC- Bridgestone Invitational at Firestone GC.
- Rugby Union, Super Rugby Final, Lions v Crusaders in Johannesburg on Saturday
- Cricket, the fourth Test between England and South Africa at Old Trafford.
Coming up on Betting Emporium
|
NFL 2017 - Neil's picks (weeks 1-17) regular season |
|
|
US Open Tennis 28th Aug - 10th Sep 2017 |
Free Tip
US PGA Championship 2017
The final major championship of the year takes place next week at Quail Hollow Club, North Carolina, normally the home of the Wells Fargo Championship. Since the 2016 Wells Fargo tournament the course has undergone major renovation ahead of hosting its first major championship
Quail Hollow has produced some big name winners in the past including McIlroy ( x2), Tiger Woods and Fowler. It is the first major venue since Congressional in 2011 to be a regular PGA Tour host course. It is a 7,600 yard Par 71, a very typical PGA Championship venue where power will always be an advantage.
At the USPGA Y.E. Yang (2009), Martin Kaymer (2010), Keegan Bradley (2011), Jason Dufner (2013) Jason Day (2015) and Jimmy Walker (2016) all captured first-time Majors .All can hit the ball a long way as can Rory McIlroy who won this title in 2012 at Kiawah Island and 2014 at Valhalla. With winning player driving distances in the Wells Fargo at Quail Hollow measuring 291 yards, 321 yards, 334 yards, 306 yards, 286 yards, 303 yards and 314 yards since 2010 , that’s an obvious starting point for the type of player we are looking for.
There is a catch though.It is felt that the course changes could lead to higher scores because of thickened rough and a faster track. Jimmy Walker played the new course a few months ago and said
"We're used to playing here with rye grass everywhere. It has a potential, now with the pure Bermuda grass layout, to play really firm and really fast. The greens ought to be fast, and that's the biggest variable, I would think.”
With a course the length of Quail Hollow you'd expect driving distance to be key. However in reality any regular 290+ yard hitter cannot be ruled out, especially if they're straight hitters. The Bermuda grass thick rough here will act as a brake on the bombers. Greens in Regulation at Quail Hollow is the joint most important stat for winners here.
Looking further at variables we have to be aware of, 14 of the last 17 PGA Champions (82%) had already won a tournament in the season prior to winning the PGA Championship.
Since Firestone became the PGA ‘warm up’ in 2006, the winner of the USPGA haS always been in the Bridgestone field and has always finished in the top 22 of the tournament. The timing of this column means I am writing before the conclusion of the WGC-Bridgestone, so you can apply your own filter is the selection below doesn’t feature at all at Firestone!
The aim here once more is not to look at the top of the market but find value at a price hopefully with game characteristics that might suit the track, and relevant form.
Daniel Berger has six top 10 finishes this year, with a win at the Fedex St Jude Classic and two second places. His run of recent results is impressive with twelve rounds under 70 in 17 rounds at:
1st St Jude Classic
2nd Travelers Championship
Missed Cut US Open
5th John Deere Championship
Tied 27th The Open
A 300 yard driver, on the USPGA tour stats he’s top 30 in greens in regulation too and 12th in birdie average this year.
He looks to have a game that suits the course (long, straight and can putt) and is a top 20 ranked player who flies just enough under the radar, for now, to be available at 66-1 each way.
Current each way odds in the market range from 5 places 1/4 to 6 places 1/5 with the possibility of enhanced terms next week as the marketing departments focus on the event
6 points each way Daniel Berger to win the USPGA Championship (80-1 Ladbrokes 1/4 1,2,3,4,5,6) 66/1 Bet Victor and William Hill 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6 or 66/1 Bet365 and Betfred 1/4 1,2,3,4,5
Extra Terrestrial
In June English cricket announced a record £1.1bn deal that sees the game return to the BBC for the first time in two decades. Sky and the BBC will share live content during a five-year deal that starts in 2020. The BBC will show live coverage of 10 matches in the new T20 competition, including the final, as well as two England T20 internationals. The BBC also won from Channel 5 the highlights of all England's men and women international fixtures and exclusive digital clips from all formats.
Sky won live rights to all England’s home international cricket, county cricket and women’s cricket. It beat BT Sport with a bid of £200m per year as the ECB successfully exploited the competition between the two broadcasters to more than double the £445m they earned from their last broadcast rights auction in 2012.
The rights deal has put cricket back in the top bracket of live rights in this country. The money will fund the new T20 competition, increased payments to the counties, grassroots initiatives and pay rises for the England players who will now demand a greater slice of cricket’s income.
The ECB put the rights on the market a year earlier than expected in order to complete the deal before the next round of Premier League football rights swallowed up budgets at Sky and BT Sport. The gamble has paid off with the ECB managing to persuade Sky to let go of exclusivity, allowing the board to re-launch cricket in 2020 and market its new tournament to a wider audience on the BBC.
The Sky deal brings in the money, and the BBC content will please the more traditional audience, but it is the digital clips the corporation can promote on a Facebook pages and other social media channels that will help the ECB reach the young audience it wants to attract to cricket.
It is apparent that the new T20 league with eight “franchise” teams is why the BBC has shown interest in cricket again.. T20 is an easier format to schedule for terrestrial broadcasters and the audience to understand. For a board launching a new product, the BBC is clearly the best platform.
The new competition is not popular with cricket’s ageing traditional county audience who are loyal to existing clubs and in many cases the current T20 Blast competition sells out but putting a new competition on free to air is a game changer. The non cricket fan will be exposed to it, for starters
England players will want to be part of those ten live games and as it will clash with international cricket the challenge for the board will be to try and maintain interest at the same time in test cricket. The worry is that Test match cricket will slide under the radar even more than it is now.
Pay talks with the players will now commence and clearly the ECB will not be immune to the sorts of issues that were to the fore in the recent Australian pay dispute. The central contracts with England cricketers run alongside the current television deal and expire in 2019. The ECB has already held talks with other sports to try to avoid the extra revenue going to players and agents.
For the counties the extra money is a chance to drive down debt in the game which currently stands at about £160m with interest payments draining them of cash. The broadcasters will be part of the decision making process for shaping the new T20 tournament and will have an input into team-names and locations. For the ECB’s commercial department the exposure on the BBC will help to sell sponsorships for the new tournament and attract new investors.
Brodders Football Analysis
Sign up to Brodders match analysis and recommended bets here for £50 a month. You are free to cancel at any time.
Long term profit over 3+ years. Following all bets subscribers are winning £21,013(£10 a point, average bet £150) +ROI 4.22% (correct at 11/07/17)
|
Euro & other Football by Brodders (monthly) |
|
|
|
|
Bookmaker reviews and advice
Getting the best price available is very important for all those who take their betting seriously.
Please open an account with all those bookmakers on the page on this link that you do not already have an account with using the links provided.
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
If you had bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since our launch in Feb 2013 you would be winning + £38,652.30.
All bets have an ROI +4.2%.
A £4000 bank (see FAQ re bank-roll requirements) betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £42,652 an 966% increase
(correct at 11/07/17)
The Road to Riches: Weekend of 29th-30th July
Coming Up this weekend
- Racing, Flat meetings at Ascot, Chester, Lingfield, Newcastle, Newmarket, Salisbury and York
- Tennis, ATP Atlanta Open and the ATP German Championships in Hamburg
- Golf, the RBC Canadian open and Porsche European Open in Germany.
- Rugby Union, Super Rugby Semi Finals, Crusaders v Chiefs and Lions v Hurricanes
- Cricket, the third Test between England and South Africa at The Oval.
- Formula One, the Hungarian Grand Prix.
Coming up on Betting Emporium
|
NFL 2017 - Neil's picks (weeks 1-17) regular season |
|
|
US Open Tennis 28th Aug - 10th Sep 2017 |
Free Tip by Neil Channing:
Gigaset International Stakes, Ascot Saturday 3pm
Peak Practice
Since the end of last season, Premier League transfer spending has passed £820m (gross, £470m net) with 35 days to go until the end of this transfer window. The two Manchester clubs account for over £250m of that net spend on their own. Total spend across the league will likely top £1bn well before the window closes. If anything illustrates the vast sums of money sloshing around in the game, it is this. There is a huge transfer from the pockets of consumers, via TV companies and then the clubs to the pockets of players and their agents in fees and salaries.
The new Sky and BT deals, running to 2019, were for £5.136 billionl, 83% higher than the previous deal and £11m per game.
A recent BBC survey found:
- Nearly half of fans say they have streamed a match online through an unofficial provider. Just over a third do so at least once a month and about one in five at least once a week. In the 18 to 34 age bracket, this leapt up to 65%.
- The main reasons include a friend/family member doing it and they just watch; the quality of the stream; and because sports TV packages are considered not good value for money.
- Just under a third of fans do not know whether it is illegal to stream live Premier League matches online from unofficial providers, but another third believe it is always illegal.
With any number of ways to watch games illegally, on PCs and tablets, or on the TV via Kodi, it appears that many people are now opting not to pay an expensive subscription to Sky and BT Sport. The viewing figures for Premier League football in 2016-17 were the lowest for seven seasons.
Some analysts ascribe this drop to the rise in popularity of cheaper streaming services, such as Netflix and Amazon, which with prices starting at £8 a month may be creating an expectation among consumers that pay-TV should be cheaper. They point to a demographic shift where people, especially younger groups, are reluctant to spend so much
On a Radio 5 Live phone-in on the subject, most callers who admitted to watching these streams were unrepentant, despite the host’s accusations of theft. One of the main points raised was that while the rest of the world can watch all Premier League games we can’t. So if your team are playing away, and everyone from Paris to Bogota can watch the game, why wouldn’t you, when the game is a couple of mouse clicks away?
Sky and BT are currently engaged in stamping out small fires, shutting down streaming sites and prosecuting Kodi box providers. This week the Premier League has been awarded a High Court order for the new 2017-18 season, which will help it combat the illegal streaming of games. The blocking order will require UK ISPs to prevent people from illegally accessing streams of its matches. A similar order was obtained for the final two months of the 2016-17 season. That saw more then 5,000 server IP addresses blocked that had previously been streaming Premier League content.
As the viewing market changes around them Sky has scrapped its numbered sports channels and replaced them with themed offerings focused on specific sports (led by football, golf and cricket) to energise viewers with a branding revamp and a cheaper viewing package two-thirds cheaper than current prices, a major shakeup of their strategy.
Sky hope to entice new pay-TV subscribers and the new strategy will allow Sky to charge £18 for its cheapest package. An aim might be to get reluctant to spend groups in on cheap packages and look to up-sell at a later date.
There are 10m freeview households, assumed to be budget conscious. Sky’s Now TV internet service broke the monthly sports subscription model on which the company built its business over more than two decades, offering pay-as-you-go sport. Now TV sports day passes have proved popular for fans looking to dip in for one-off big events. More and more Freeview households are starting to spend on pay-TV in some way, 45% take a subscription service but it is mostly Netflix or Amazon, to date.
If these moves,both strategi and legal, don’t succeed in arresting the viewing decline, then when the next TV deal is negotiated the halcyon days of summer 2017 with £50m full backs and £30m uncapped goalkeepers may be over. At which point this week’s prophecies from Daniel Levy (“the spending by other Premier League clubs is unsustainable.”) and Jose Mourinho ("some clubs are paying "too much"and are creating a "very strange and out-of-control" market.") will come to pass. Until then, footballers and their agents can make hay.
Brodders Football Analysis
Sign up to Brodders match analysis and recommended bets here for £50 a month. You are free to cancel at any time.
Long term profit over 3+ years. Following all bets subscribers are winning £21,013(£10 a point, average bet £150) +ROI 4.22% (correct at 11/07/17)
|
Euro & other Football by Brodders (monthly) |
|
|
|
|
Bookmaker reviews and advice
Getting the best price available is very important for all those who take their betting seriously.
Please open an account with all those bookmakers on the page on this link that you do not already have an account with using the links provided.
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
If you had bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since our launch in Feb 2013 you would be winning + £38,652.30.
All bets have an ROI +4.2%.
A £4000 bank (see FAQ re bank-roll requirements) betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £42,652 an 966% increase
(correct at 11/07/17)
The Road to Riches: Weekend of 22nd-23rd July
Coming Up this weekend
- Racing, Flat meetings at Haydock, Lingfield, Newbury, Newmarket and Ripon. Jumps Meetings at Cartmel and Market Rasen
- Tennis, the ATP Hall of Fame Championships in Newport, Rhode Island. ATP Croatia and Sweden Opens
- Golf, the final two rounds of the Open Championship at Royal Birkdale.
- Rugby Union, Super Rugby Quarter finals
- Cricket, NatWest T20 Blast group stage fixtures.
- Cycling, the final weekend of the Tour De France with the Individual time trial followed by the last stage in Paris.
Free Tip:
2017 Super Rugby Quarter finals
The knockout stages of 2017 Super rugby season begin this weekend with the four quarter-finals. Four conference winners host four wildcards, seeded by group stage results.
The Lions moved ahead of the Crusaders and into top seed on the overall standings following a 27-10 victory over the Sharks in Johannesburg last weekend as the Crusaders lost their season long unbeaten record in defeat to the Hurricanes.
The Lions will now face the Sharks at home in the quarter-finals and hold home advantage for the playoffs should they advance all the way to the final.
The second placed Crusaders will host the Highlanders on Saturday while the Chiefs make the trip to Cape Town to play the Stormers. In the other quarter-final on Friday the Hurricanes beat the Brumbies in Canberra 35-16.
Two of the quarter finals were expected to be quite one sided. The Hurricanes were 12 point favourites in Canberra against the weakest of the group winners the Brumbies and won by 19. The number one seed Lions are 15 point favourites at home to the Sharks
The other two games should be closer. The Crusaders and Highlanders met twice during this season. The Crusaders won both, 30-27 in Dunedin and 25-22 in Christchurch and are 5 point favourites this weekend
The final game of the weekend is on Saturday as follows:
3 (seed)-Stormers v 6 (seed)-Chiefs, Cape Town, 4pm
This is a repeat of last year’s Super Rugby quarter final which the Chiefs won comfortably, 60-21 with brilliant running rugby.
This is slated to be the closest of the four quarter finals, in part because this season the Chiefs have already travelled to Cape Town this season where they lost 34-26 to the Stormers. This season the Stormers played all five New Zealand sides but won two and lost three, with the losses all coming on a tour of New Zealand, so not too surprising.
The Stormers secured the third seed in the play offs by winning Africa Conference 1 with ten wins and five losses in a group in which the next strongest side recorded four wins across the season. They enter the quarter finals having beaten the Bulls 41-33 away fro home last weekend. The Lions are the only side to beat them in Cape Town in 2017 and they ran in a total of 20 tries in beating the Cheetahs, Sunwolves and Bulls as part of their preparations for the play offs.
The Chiefs are the sixth seed, and the third best record of the five New Zealand franchises with 12 wins 2 losses and a draw. They finished the regular season with a 28-10 win at home to the Brumbies.
This should be very tight and interestingly the home side are under-dogs at 11/8 outright (Chiefs 4/6 best) and +3.5 points 10/11 on the handicap
Of course the New Zealand franchises are far stronger as a group than the South African teams and that in itself explains the Chiefs being favourites here but in Cape Town I like backing the big physical Stormers outright for this game, which I would price as genuinely 50-50.
8 points Stormers to beat the Chiefs 2.5 Matchbook or Betfair or 11/8 Bet365, William Hill, Skybet
A Not so Grand Prix?
The British Grand Prix boasts the highest attendance of any race in the Grand Prix calendar and the highest annual attendance for a British weekend sporting event. Yet Silverstone has now triggered its break clause with Formula 1 owners Liberty Media citing losses over the two years meaning that 2019 will be the last year that the British GP takes place at Silverstone unless a new contract is agreed..
Silverstone sought to reach a compromise agreement with F1's new owners Liberty Media but these talks failed. Liberty offered a series of options to try to help Silverstone but the track believed these were not satisfactory.
The BRDC owns and operates the circuit having invested £50m over the last decade to develop Silverstone. The current contract was negotiated by a previous management team, which left the business a few years ago. The BRDC says it is is not financially viable to deliver the British Grand Prix under the terms of the current contract.
“The net revenue is not enough to cover the overheads let alone turn a profit, the event produced losses of £2.8m in 2015 and £4.8m in 2016, and we expect to lose a similar amount this year”.
Silverstone has hosted the race since 1950 and its current contract has been in place to host the GP since 2009, agreed with the previous owners of F1 under Bernie Ecclestone’s tenure. The 17-year contract had been described as "the only deal on the table at the time" to preserve the event's short-term future, but a 5% promoter fee escalator has meant that costs have increased from £11.5m in 2010 to £16.2m in 2017. Had the fee kept in line with UK inflation, it would have increased to only £13.6 million this year (£2.8m less). By 2026, (the last year of the contractual obligation) the fee will have risen to £25m.
The break clause had to be activated before last weekend’s Grand Prix.Asit stands with that clause now triggered the race will run in 2018 and 2019 as normal and discussions between Liberty and the BRDC will continue over the circuit’s future as host.
The 2009 contract was predicated on updates to the track, including a new pit and paddock complex, but Red Bull boss Christian Horner was forthright in his criticisms last week.
"They either shouldn't have signed it in the first place or they got their maths wrong."
"They spent a fortune on the pits and put them in the wrong place"
"They've created a paddock that has zero atmosphere at one of the most historic race tracks in the UK so there was some serious mis-judgement and management,”
Silverstone is possibly the most pressing circuit problem for the new F1owners Liberty which wants to protect the classic races (Monaco, Silverstone, Spa and Monza) but whose organizers are struggling with onerous contracts secured against them by Ecclestone. If Liberty reduces the 5% annual increase in fee for one race, the rest might reasonably expect the same treatment.
The UK motorsport industry today is worth an estimated £10.5 billion - employing over 45,000 people and exporting over 75% of its output. That is larger than the equivalent sectors in Germany, Italy and France combined. 80% of F1 teams are based in the UK.
In a big picture sense the British Grand Prix saga is strange. The UK industry offers high value employment, exports, engineering excellence, prestige and a large tax take. This is potentially being lost over a dispute over sums that are small in the overall scheme of things. A compromise and a new deal is likely, albeit with some brinkmanship first.
Brodders Football Analysis
Sign up to Brodders match analysis and recommended bets here for £50 a month. You are free to cancel at any time.
Long term profit over 3+ years. Following all bets subscribers are winning £21,013(£10 a point, average bet £150) +ROI 4.22% (correct at 11/07/17)
|
Euro & other Football by Brodders (monthly) |
|
|
|
|
Bookmaker reviews and advice
Getting the best price available is very important for all those who take their betting seriously.
Please open an account with all those bookmakers on the page on this link that you do not already have an account with using the links provided.
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
If you had bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since our launch in Feb 2013 you would be winning + £38,652.30.
All bets have an ROI +4.2%.
A £4000 bank (see FAQ re bank-roll requirements) betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £42,652 an 966% increase
(correct at 11/07/17)
