Weekly Articles "Road to Riches" by Rich 'Tighty' Prew
The Road to Riches: Weekend of 22nd-23rd July
Coming Up this weekend
- Racing, Flat meetings at Haydock, Lingfield, Newbury, Newmarket and Ripon. Jumps Meetings at Cartmel and Market Rasen
- Tennis, the ATP Hall of Fame Championships in Newport, Rhode Island. ATP Croatia and Sweden Opens
- Golf, the final two rounds of the Open Championship at Royal Birkdale.
- Rugby Union, Super Rugby Quarter finals
- Cricket, NatWest T20 Blast group stage fixtures.
- Cycling, the final weekend of the Tour De France with the Individual time trial followed by the last stage in Paris.
Free Tip:
2017 Super Rugby Quarter finals
The knockout stages of 2017 Super rugby season begin this weekend with the four quarter-finals. Four conference winners host four wildcards, seeded by group stage results.
The Lions moved ahead of the Crusaders and into top seed on the overall standings following a 27-10 victory over the Sharks in Johannesburg last weekend as the Crusaders lost their season long unbeaten record in defeat to the Hurricanes.
The Lions will now face the Sharks at home in the quarter-finals and hold home advantage for the playoffs should they advance all the way to the final.
The second placed Crusaders will host the Highlanders on Saturday while the Chiefs make the trip to Cape Town to play the Stormers. In the other quarter-final on Friday the Hurricanes beat the Brumbies in Canberra 35-16.
Two of the quarter finals were expected to be quite one sided. The Hurricanes were 12 point favourites in Canberra against the weakest of the group winners the Brumbies and won by 19. The number one seed Lions are 15 point favourites at home to the Sharks
The other two games should be closer. The Crusaders and Highlanders met twice during this season. The Crusaders won both, 30-27 in Dunedin and 25-22 in Christchurch and are 5 point favourites this weekend
The final game of the weekend is on Saturday as follows:
3 (seed)-Stormers v 6 (seed)-Chiefs, Cape Town, 4pm
This is a repeat of last year’s Super Rugby quarter final which the Chiefs won comfortably, 60-21 with brilliant running rugby.
This is slated to be the closest of the four quarter finals, in part because this season the Chiefs have already travelled to Cape Town this season where they lost 34-26 to the Stormers. This season the Stormers played all five New Zealand sides but won two and lost three, with the losses all coming on a tour of New Zealand, so not too surprising.
The Stormers secured the third seed in the play offs by winning Africa Conference 1 with ten wins and five losses in a group in which the next strongest side recorded four wins across the season. They enter the quarter finals having beaten the Bulls 41-33 away fro home last weekend. The Lions are the only side to beat them in Cape Town in 2017 and they ran in a total of 20 tries in beating the Cheetahs, Sunwolves and Bulls as part of their preparations for the play offs.
The Chiefs are the sixth seed, and the third best record of the five New Zealand franchises with 12 wins 2 losses and a draw. They finished the regular season with a 28-10 win at home to the Brumbies.
This should be very tight and interestingly the home side are under-dogs at 11/8 outright (Chiefs 4/6 best) and +3.5 points 10/11 on the handicap
Of course the New Zealand franchises are far stronger as a group than the South African teams and that in itself explains the Chiefs being favourites here but in Cape Town I like backing the big physical Stormers outright for this game, which I would price as genuinely 50-50.
8 points Stormers to beat the Chiefs 2.5 Matchbook or Betfair or 11/8 Bet365, William Hill, Skybet
A Not so Grand Prix?
The British Grand Prix boasts the highest attendance of any race in the Grand Prix calendar and the highest annual attendance for a British weekend sporting event. Yet Silverstone has now triggered its break clause with Formula 1 owners Liberty Media citing losses over the two years meaning that 2019 will be the last year that the British GP takes place at Silverstone unless a new contract is agreed..
Silverstone sought to reach a compromise agreement with F1's new owners Liberty Media but these talks failed. Liberty offered a series of options to try to help Silverstone but the track believed these were not satisfactory.
The BRDC owns and operates the circuit having invested £50m over the last decade to develop Silverstone. The current contract was negotiated by a previous management team, which left the business a few years ago. The BRDC says it is is not financially viable to deliver the British Grand Prix under the terms of the current contract.
“The net revenue is not enough to cover the overheads let alone turn a profit, the event produced losses of £2.8m in 2015 and £4.8m in 2016, and we expect to lose a similar amount this year”.
Silverstone has hosted the race since 1950 and its current contract has been in place to host the GP since 2009, agreed with the previous owners of F1 under Bernie Ecclestone’s tenure. The 17-year contract had been described as "the only deal on the table at the time" to preserve the event's short-term future, but a 5% promoter fee escalator has meant that costs have increased from £11.5m in 2010 to £16.2m in 2017. Had the fee kept in line with UK inflation, it would have increased to only £13.6 million this year (£2.8m less). By 2026, (the last year of the contractual obligation) the fee will have risen to £25m.
The break clause had to be activated before last weekend’s Grand Prix.Asit stands with that clause now triggered the race will run in 2018 and 2019 as normal and discussions between Liberty and the BRDC will continue over the circuit’s future as host.
The 2009 contract was predicated on updates to the track, including a new pit and paddock complex, but Red Bull boss Christian Horner was forthright in his criticisms last week.
"They either shouldn't have signed it in the first place or they got their maths wrong."
"They spent a fortune on the pits and put them in the wrong place"
"They've created a paddock that has zero atmosphere at one of the most historic race tracks in the UK so there was some serious mis-judgement and management,”
Silverstone is possibly the most pressing circuit problem for the new F1owners Liberty which wants to protect the classic races (Monaco, Silverstone, Spa and Monza) but whose organizers are struggling with onerous contracts secured against them by Ecclestone. If Liberty reduces the 5% annual increase in fee for one race, the rest might reasonably expect the same treatment.
The UK motorsport industry today is worth an estimated £10.5 billion - employing over 45,000 people and exporting over 75% of its output. That is larger than the equivalent sectors in Germany, Italy and France combined. 80% of F1 teams are based in the UK.
In a big picture sense the British Grand Prix saga is strange. The UK industry offers high value employment, exports, engineering excellence, prestige and a large tax take. This is potentially being lost over a dispute over sums that are small in the overall scheme of things. A compromise and a new deal is likely, albeit with some brinkmanship first.
Brodders Football Analysis
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Euro & other Football by Brodders (monthly) |
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Bookmaker reviews and advice
Getting the best price available is very important for all those who take their betting seriously.
Please open an account with all those bookmakers on the page on this link that you do not already have an account with using the links provided.
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
If you had bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since our launch in Feb 2013 you would be winning + £38,652.30.
All bets have an ROI +4.2%.
A £4000 bank (see FAQ re bank-roll requirements) betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £42,652 an 966% increase
(correct at 11/07/17)
The Road to Riches: Weekend of 15th-16th July
Coming Up this weekend
- Racing, Flat meetings at Ascot, Chester, Hamilton, Newmarket, Salisbury and York.
- Tennis, The final weekend of Wimbledon.
- Golf, On the European tour the Scottish Open at Dundonald links. On the USPGA the John Deere Classic at TPC Deere Run.
- Formula One, the British Grand Prix at Silverstone.
- Cricket, the second Test between England and South Africa continues at Trent Bridge.
- Cycling, Stages 14 and 15 on the Tour De France
Free Tip:
The 2017 Open Championship returns to Royal Birkdale in Merseyside next week for the first time since 2008 when Padraig Harrington won.
Birkdale is in the dunes on the Irish Sea coastline, a tough tee-to-green challenge. If the prevailing wind is unkind, Royal Birkdale becomes a nasty challenge with Mark O'Meara (1998) and Harrington winning with scores of Even Par (280) and +3 (283) respectively in the last two Opens hosted there.
Birkdale is a course where scores are possible if conditions allow. From a driving perspective, the course has with no blind tee-shots (mainly elevated tees) and the statistics from 2008 suggest that missing fairways by a small margin offers little penalty. Fairways are flat and the real trouble from off the tee is hitting fairway bunkers which are penal. Green complexes are flat and quality approach shots get rewarded with makeable putts. However if the wind blows….
Henrik Stenson's win at Royal Troon last year yet again confirmed that in-form players should be followed at the Open. It makes sense that those who are struggling with their games are unlikely to find them on a links course. 11 Champions from the last 17 Opens (65%) had won a tournament in the same season prior to winning it
Birkdale has seen some surprise finishers at the top end. Amateurs have been placed in the last two Birkdale Opens. Justin Rose made his first impression in 1998. So too Chris Wood in 2008, in the same year 53 year-old Greg Norman played in the final group and finished third.
My aim here isn’t to offer a name at the head of the betting but to offer a selection at a price, where the player looks under-rated in the betting market.
Swedish golfer Alex Noren is one name I kept coming back to. When he won the BMW PGA Championship at Wentworth recently it was his ninth win on the European Tour, four of which came in a 10-event stretch from July to November last year.
Fellow countryman Henrik Stenson finished third at Wentworth and said afterwards of Noren
“It would be hard to say that you can't see a major for him in the future if he keeps on playing like that,"
That win was his fifth victory in 22 starts and in this period nobody on any major tour has won more events. I like the fact that he wins (obviously) having spent a decade backing golfers that should but don’t (Lee Westwood, come out now).
One particular part of his game that I like, especially if the wind gets up, is his excellent short game and scrambling skills.Now the world number 8, we find him in the Open betting generally available at 50-1 in the lower reaches of the top 20. Why is that?
Well at 50-1 we can’t have everything going for us and Noren lacks successful experience at the back end of majors including missed cuts at both the US Open and the Masters this year. Going back a couple of years he missed 7 out of 8 majors during 2014 and 2015 after a wrist injury.
However look a little closer and you find that Noren finished in the top 20 in 2008 at Birkdale, having gone into the weekend in the top 10. He also finished top 10 at Lytham in 2012 and won last years Scottish open on the links at Castle Stuart the week before the Troon Open. For balance,he's just missed the cut at Dundonald this year following up a 70 yesterday with 76 today.
I think he is definitely one for the portfolio her though. At the time of writing each way terms are going up across the industry, some with enhanced terms as the marketing departments get their mitts on one of the big events of the year. Skybet have gone TEN places (a fifth the odds) and whilst the extra places are great (in a market where the vast majority are more likely to place than to win) they have ducked the price on Noren at 35-1. Across the industry terms range from Skybet's at one end through 1/5 the odds 7 or 8 places and onto 1/4 the odds 6 places and then the 1/4 the odds 5 places that you would see most weekends at the other..
Of course any player can be on the wrong end of weather or an unfavourable draw in a major too and we are four or five days away from being able to factor that in. Taking the best available combination of terms/price today for this column
6 points each way Alex Noren,The Open 50/1 Betfred, Sportingbet 1/4 1,2,3,4,5, 6 or 50/1 Coral 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8
“Wow, this is rugby”
"Wow," said New Zealand captain Kieran Read to Sam Warburton three minutes before the end of the game "This is rugby…"
At the conclusion of the New Zealand-British Lions test series last weekend, over the three tests the All Blacks had led for 153 of the 240 minutes played, were level for 84 minutes and were behind for just three minutes in the series yet only drew the series
It was quite the feat for the Lions to burgle a draw in the third test, and if you had asked the Lions six weeks ago whether they would go to New Zealand and draw a Test series they would have snapped your arm off. It is a major achievement and a huge shot in the arm for a rugby concept increasingly under threat from a professional club game and an ever more crowded international schedule. Add to that the extremely tough tour schedule (the Lions won five of the ten games overall) and the tour coming at the end of a long Northern Hemisphere season and going home 1-1 was a result to remember.
In the first two Tests, decided by a cumulative total of just three points, Beauden Barrett missed 14 kickable points and of course a Lions win came against 14 men. To find parity in the final test having been carved open by the All Blacks' speed and vision repeatedly in the first half was close to miraculous; on another day they could have been 20 points down before the break but the All Blacks fumbling three clear chances let the Lions off the hook.
As a fan of outlier statistics, some of them from the third game are worth mentioning.
In the third test New Zealand were outscored in the second half by 6 points their worst home second half since 1998and the worst in Auckland since 1986. It was only the third time New Zealand led by six or more points at half time at home and didn’t win, the previous occasions were in 1937 and 1965. Finally of the last 58 occasions the All Blacks had led at Eden Park, they had gone on to win 57 of them.
From a betting point of view the three test series produced an 11/2 second test winner and a 35-1 third test draw and away from some of the sub-markets (half time winning margins were New Zealand 1-7 points in two of the three tests, to name one favourite line that won ) but probably provided slim pickings for most punters especially as the Lions in the second and third tests actually won the second halves and shredded point lines based around the “fact” that the All Blacks always storm away in the last twenty minutes.
How will history look back on the tour? The temptation is to go hyperbolic, “the tour that saved the Lions” but there are still major challenges ahead in the professional era. History should remember this as one of the better Lions squads with some great touring performances (Jonathan Davies, Maro Itoje, Sean O’Brien to name three) well led and well coached. It might also remember this as a rebuilding phase for the All Blacks, after the retirements of McCaw, Carter, Smith and Mealamu and where the next generation of superstars (Jordie Barrett, Reiko Ioane to name two of them) were blooded but probably not a vintage side. Knowing the All Blacks by the next world cup in 2017, it most likely will be.
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Bookmaker reviews and advice
Getting the best price available is very important for all those who take their betting seriously.
Please open an account with all those bookmakers on the page on this link that you do not already have an account with using the links provided.
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
If you had bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since our launch in Feb 2013 you would be winning + £38,652.30.
All bets have an ROI +4.2%.
A £4000 bank (see FAQ re bank-roll requirements) betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £42,652 an 966% increase
(correct at 11/07/17)
The Road to Riches: Weekend of 8th-9th July
Coming Up this weekend
- Rugby Union, the third Test between New Zealand and the British Lions in Auckland on Saturday morning.
- Racing, Flat meetings at Beverley, Carlisle, Haydock, Leicester, Nottingham and Sandown (including the Coral Eclipse).
- Tennis, The middle weekend of Wimbledon.
- Golf, On the European tour the Dubai Duty Free Irish Open at Port Stewart. On the USPGA the Greenbrier Classic at White Sulphur Springs.
- Formula One, the Austrian Grand Prix at Spielberg.
- Cricket, the first Test between England and South Africa continues at Lords.
- Cycling, Stages 8 and 9 in the mountains on the Tour De France
Wimbledon 2017 3rd-16th July
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Wimbledon 2017 (3rd - 16th July) |
The full package includes all of Nigel Seeley's outright and match analysis and details of all our bets.
Nigel shows a good long term profit on all Betting Emporium tennis +5.14% ROI on all bets from 2014.
In the French Open he was +ROI 50.75% and betting £10 a point (average 10 point bets) +£690.20.
Free Tip:
2017 Nat West T20 Blast Preview
18 counties compete for the English domestic T20 title starting this week. Teams are split into 2 divisions (North and South) each containing 9 teams for the group stage of the competition. During the group stage each club plays 6 of the other teams in the same division twice, home and away. They play the other two teams only once, and therefore 14 games total. Teams receive two points for a win and one point for a tie or if the match is abandoned. Teams are ranked by total points, then net run rate. At the end of the group stage, the top four teams from each group enter the knockout stage. Northants are the defending champions,
Every year the Blast is high variance from an ante-post betting perspective with many talented teams, a fair amount of luck needed with the weather and the shortest format of the game making individual results highly variable. All this is reflected in it being a 8/1 the field market and I usually look for an outsider to give run at a price. Twice in the last four years Northants have been an unfashionable winner of the competition at nice prices.
Worcestershire are available at 20/1+ (each way half the odds 1, 2 available), and only three sides in the competition are lower than them in the betting. This is a massive under-estimation of their ability and prospects and they start their campaign tonight against Warwickshire on Sky Sports in the first of four home games to begin their group stage.
Worcestershire topped their 50 over competition group this season with six wins out of eight beating Yorkshire, Nottinghamshire and Warwickshire along the way before losing in the semi-finals and they are currently second in their county championship division behind Nottinghamshire. They failed to make the T20 Blast play-off's last season. Two “must win” games were abandoned in bad weather in the late group stages. They made the knock out stages in the two previous seasons.
The North group perhaps lacks the depth of the South group. Not only does it contain sides like Derbyshire and Leicestershire who are rarely competitive but Durham have a points deduction going into this competition. Yes, they have to face tough one day sides but when you compare the North Group to attempting to pick a team in the south group having to come through a heat of Surrey, Middlesex, Essex, Hants, Kent, Sussex and Somerset it’s a bit easier to draw a line through some of the North group teams.
Worcestershire are probably a stronger batting side than a bowling side but that batting line up is packed with game-winners.. Daryl Mitchell is a solid opener, Joe Clarke is a “next big thing” in the England Lions side and Ross Whiteley is a powerful hitter in the lower middle order just to name three players.
Overseas pros are a big determining factor in a T20 season, with two allowed to play in any game. Last season, Worcestershire struggled in this area with their two overseas quick bowlers Henry and Abbott only taking 8 wickets in 40 overs combined. This season John Hastings the Australian all-rounder is a solid option and the talented New Zealand spinner Mitchell Santner is back after being injured after one game in the competition last season.
Worcestershire are a strong white-ball side with fast developing talent. They look a mis-priced side in the competition to me and a viable betting alternative to the fashionable sides at the head of the market
6 points each way (1/2 1,2) Worcestershire to win the Nat West T20 Blast (25-1 with Sportingbet until the market was taken down), 22/1 Skybet or 20/1 Betfred or BetVictor. We'll record at 20/1.
Welcome to the club
Only ten countries have played Test cricket and the most recent country to be awarded test match status was Bangladesh in 2000. New Test teams tend to find the going tough. It took Bangladesh 35 Tests until their first victory. In their first 50 Tests against opponents other than Zimbabwe, Bangladesh lost 47 games and drew three. Last week the ICC announced that Afghanistan and Ireland have been voted in as fullmembers and awarded Test status..
Both countries have overcome many obstacles to get to this stage. Taking Ireland first, for seventy years the Gaelic Athletic Association prohibited the playing and watching of cricket, a ban which lasted until 1971. Cricket then remained a fringe sport in Northern Ireland and hardly played in the Republic.
In the early 2000s Ireland’s “Celtic Tiger” economy saw many people enter the country from cricketing nations such as Australia, South Africa and Pakistan. This was significant in enhancing playing standards and numbers and gradually eroded the historical image of cricket as a game for the British only and ultimately boosted the national team. Four members of the side who defeated Pakistan in Ireland’s inaugural World Cup in 2007 were born overseas. Ireland has since become the most successful non-Test nation of all time, beating five Test-playing countries in the past three World Cups despite losing three senior players to England (Morgan, Joyce and Rankin). Participation levels have quadrupled in the last decade.
Afghanistan’s cricketing story began when the game first took hold in Pakistan in the 1980s among refugees who had left during the Soviet War. Cricket's governing body in Afghanistan was founded in 1995 by a returning refugee. In 2004 a team largely made up of refugees played its first official international match. With foreign goverment support Afghanistan built the facilities to support the team and began to rise through international cricket. They qualified for their first World Twenty20 in 2010, and played in their first World Cup in 2015. The side is currently Afghanistan’s most successful sports team, and cricket is the country's most popular sport.
The danger is that the two new sides will become Test nations in name only. Zimbabwe, currently the lowest-ranked Test nation will receive $94m in ICC funding from 2016-23. Afghanistan and Ireland will receive just $40m each. That will hamper their ability to be competitive on the field. Initially, Afghanistan and Ireland are likely to play around only four Tests a year each and both will be excluded from the impending new league structure for Test cricket due to run between 2019 and 2023.
Afghanistan’s prospects are probably the brighter of the two. The side boasts some real talent including Rashid Khan, a brilliant leg-spinner who is the top wicket-taker in ODIs this year with 36. It also has a large playing pool. It will enjoy the greater financial clout as not only does it receive funding from foreign governments but also the ICC's $40m goes further in Afghanistan than it does in Ireland.The Afghan cricket board can already afford to fund 190 centrally contracted cricketers. Ireland has just 19.
The Irish team is less strong than five years ago. Even so, with extra cash from the ICC it can spend more money on development programmes. A higher profile could also stop cricketers leaving to play for England and encourage players with Irish ancestry in other countries who can’t make their own national teams to try to play for Ireland.
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Bookmaker reviews and advice
Getting the best price available is very important for all those who take their betting seriously.
Please open an account with all those bookmakers on the page on this link that you do not already have an account with using the links provided.
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
If you had bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since our launch in Feb 2013 you would be winning + £38,877.00.
All bets have an ROI +4.44%.
A £4000 bank (see FAQ re bank-roll requirements) betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £42,877 an 972% increase
(correct at 08/05/17)
The Road to Riches: Weekend of 1st-2nd July
Coming Up this weekend
- Rugby Union, the second Test between New Zealand and the British Lions in Wellington on Saturday morning.
- Racing, Flat meetings at Chester, Doncaster, Lingfield, Newcastle,Newmarket,Windsor and York
- Tennis, The ATP Antalya Cup in Turkey and ATP and WTA Championships in Eastbourne, the final warm ups before Wimbledon next week.
- Golf, On the European tour the French Open. On the USPGA the Quicken loans national at TPC Potomac in Maryland.
- Football, the UEFA European Under 21 Championship final on Friday night between Germany and Spain, and the FIFA Confederations Cup final on Sunday between Germany and Chile.
- Cricket, the Royal London One day Cup final between Notts and Surrey at Lords.
Wimbledon 2017 3rd-16th July
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Wimbledon 2017 (3rd - 16th July) |
The full package includes all of Nigel Seeley's outright and match analysis and details of all our bets. A Mens Singlesoutright tip was published this morning.
Nigel shows a good long term profit on all Betting Emporium tennis +5.14% ROI on all bets from 2014.
In the French Open he was +ROI 50.75% and betting £10 a point (average 10 point bets) +£690.20.
Free Tip:
New Zealand v British Lions Second Test Saturday 8.35am BST Wellington
The second test in the three match series takes place in Wellington on Saturday after the All Blacks beat the Lions 30-15 in the first test.
In that first test the Lions were beaten at what was thought to be their main strength, the scrum and the gain line. Big direct All Black carries and a series of intricate short passes rendered the Lions’ blitz defence ineffective. Whilst the Lions had chances at start of both halves to score more points than they did, the score-line reflected what happens when you don't take your chances & the All Blacks do. Two or three lapses in concentration by the Lions each led to tries. IIn lock Brodie Retallick and No 8 Kieran Read the All Blacks possessed two forwards in great form.
For the Lions their own supposed big weapons (the driving maul, a strong scrum, a packed bench) made no impact. The only maul led to a turnover and only Maro Itoje of the replacements represented an upgrade on the man who started. Their heaviest Test defeat in 12 years could have been worse, the winning margin flattered by a Lions try with the last play of the game. The Lions were limited to 38% possession and 37% territory.
The challenge in Wellington is massive as we should expect the All Blacks to improve. They have now won 30 out of 30 home games since Steve Hansen took charge with 1040 points scored, 387 conceded. New Zealand have now scored 240 points and only conceded 31 points in the second half in their nine home games since the rugby world cup and only conceded three tries. Furthermore New Zealand have outscored opponents 289-98 in the final 20 minutes of those 30 home games (101-7 in the last 7). If the Lions aren’t leading with 20 minutes to go, forget it.
Some of the potential All Blacks improvement is already reflected in the market for Wellington. At Auckland the Lions went off 7/2 outright and +11 on the handicap. Here at the time of writing they are 5/1,11/2 in a place and +14.
The Lions have picked a team designed to compete better at the breakdown to slow down the All Blacks front foot ball. They will want to retain their attacking strike threat but be more accurate near the line and will recognise that they need to score 30 points plus to be in with a shot at winning the game. The All Blacks have scored 29 or more points in their last 11 games after all. Taking their chances is vital. It's a concern that the new 10-12 combination Sexton and Farrell have only played 50 minutes together all tour but its probably their best shot at scoring the number of points necessary. The All Blacks scored three tries in the first test with a malfunctioning lineout and two backs substituted in the first 34 minutes.
One thing the Lions though have been all tour is competitive in first halves. In their tour matches to date the Lions were 7-6 down in the opener, losing 12-10 to the Blues, drawing 10-10 against the Highlanders, and were 9-3, 12-10 and 13-6 up against the Crusaders, Maoris and the Chiefs respectively. In the first test they were 13-8 down. The All Blacks have led by 6-10 points at half time in 9 of their previous 12 games too. In top tier rugby with strong defences it is only when the tackle count rises and the benches empty in second halves that games open up.
A week ago 2/1+ was offered in several places about the All Blacks winning the first half by 1-7 points and that was to be my focus here, avoiding the overall points handicap and winning margin, steering clear of when the game opened up. Unfortunately at the time of writing only one firm (Paddy Power/Betfair sportsbook) has the first half winning margin market up at 15-8 New Zealand 1-7 points and 11-4 8-14 points so that rules me out putting (probably 1-7 points) a bet up.
In player markets many were shocked by the decision to axe the prolific Julian Savea for the first test but in 20-year-old Reiko Ioane the All Blacks have a real talent on their hands. He first shot to fame on the Sevens stage as a teenager and hasn’t looked back, shining for Auckland and the Blues before entering New Zealand’s squad. Ioane had seven runs for 86 metres, three clean breaks and two tries in his first test last week, and a long Test career awaits. He has great speed and in his two matches against the Lions this tour has left Nowell, Daly and Williams for dead in finishing opportunities.
For a team likely to be in the ascendancy, and creating opportunities out wide (Attacking Sexton and Farrell with Sonny Bill Williams' huge size advantage at the gain line strengthens this case) with the pace advantage Ioane has, an odds against the anytime try scorer price is attractive
10 points Reiko Ioane anytime try-scorer 11/10 William Hill, Skybet or BetVictor
Another Sporting Surprise
Pakistan won the 2017 ICC Champions trophy, 16-1 seventh favourites of eight teams. This was a result that confirmed the betting minefield that was a short format limited overs competition in English weather: Australia and South Africa didn’t make the knock out stages, Bangladesh did and Pakistan beat England then India to win it.
In their first match a fortnight before the final Pakistan were terrible. Seasoned pundits called it a shambles and the lowest ranked team in the tournament was written off with a lack of firepower up top, abject fielding and the spinners a teenage leggie and a little known player from Swansea.
After their opening loss they had to face up against the No. 1 team in ODI cricket South Africa in a virtual knockout game, and won. They were then seven wickets down against Sri Lanka and were essentially out of the competition and won. They had to play a semi-final against the favourites of the tournament, England, and beat them and then India in the final.
Before the final, some people were saying that the best hope for Pakistan was to make a game of it before India's inevitable triumph. That Pakistan then won by 180- runs to win a global 50-over title for the first time since 1992 is a big upset.
This is one of the greatest comebacks in the history of cricket. It wasn't a comeback in one game, or against one opponent, it was in four straight knockout games and completely unpredictable in a betting context for a famously unpredictable team often beset by off the field problems.
The bowling attack was led by Mohammad Amir, seven years on from being found guilty of spot fixing at Lords that saw him banned for five years and sent to prison. He took three huge wickets in the final, openers Rohit Sharma and Shikhar Dhawan and then Virat Kohli too.
Amir was world class at the age of 18. Now he is a bowler who will win many matches for Pakistan with pace, late swing and the maturity he lacked seven years ago. This is a great story for Pakistan cricket. Their problems are well-documented, but their list of achievements is impressive. They still cannot play international matches at home because of fears over security yet topped the test rankings a year ago and have since lost Misbah and Younus Khan to retirement and other players to fall-outs and exile and now have won a global 50 over tournament.
Brodders Football Analysis
Sign up to Brodders match analysis and recommended bets here for £50 a month. You are free to cancel at any time.
Long term profit over 3+ years. Following all bets subscribers are winning £24,601 (£10 a point, average bet £150) +ROI 5.2% (correct at 08/05/17)
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Euro & other Football by Brodders (monthly) |
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Bookmaker reviews and advice
Getting the best price available is very important for all those who take their betting seriously.
Please open an account with all those bookmakers on the page on this link that you do not already have an account with using the links provided.
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
If you had bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since our launch in Feb 2013 you would be winning + £38,877.00.
All bets have an ROI +4.44%.
A £4000 bank (see FAQ re bank-roll requirements) betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £42,877 an 972% increase
(correct at 08/05/17)
The Road to Riches Weekend of 3rd-4th June
The Road to Riches will now be on holiday until the weekend of 30th June- 1st July
Meanwhile….
Coming Up this weekend
- Football, the UEFA Champions League final in Cardiff, Juventus v Real Madrid.
- Racing, The Derby at Epsom, Other Flat meetings at Doncaster, Lingfield, Musselburgh and Newcastle. Jumps meetings at Hexham and Worcester.
- Tennis, The middle weekend of the French Open at Roland Garros
- Golf, On the European tour the Nordea Masters in Sweden. On the USPGA the Memorial tournament at Muirfield Village.
- Cricket, the ICC Champions Trophy: On Saturday Sri Lanka v South Africa at the Oval. On Sunday India v Pakistan at Edgbaston
- Rugby Union, the start of the British Lions tour of New Zealand begins with a match against the Provincial Union XV..
French Open Tennis (Roland Garros) 28th May to 11th June 2017
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French Tennis Open (Roland Garros) (28th May – 11th June 2017) |
All of Nigel's daily match write-ups with details of all the bets for the second half of the tournament
Royal Ascot (Full package) 20th-24th June by Neil Channing
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Royal Ascot (Full Package) 20th - 24th June 2017 |
The full package includes all five days of Neil's analysis and write ups plus details of all the bets that we have.
Free Tip:
The Investec Derby Epsom 4.30pm Saturday 3rd June by Neil Channing.
This is an impossible Derby and I definitely wouldn't normally be rushing to have a bet.The thing that finally persuaded me is the Four places and even at 1/5th odds with some firms that is very fair in a race with 19 runners six of which are 50/1 and over.
I certainly don't want to bet Cracksman or Cliffs of Moher each-way as I really want to know my horse is going to stay and make that 4th place something worth having. I think they are both short enough anyway. I also can't have the once-raced Distant Thunder as he could easily be a star or useless but is less likely to be a steady placed horse. Capri seemed to fade in his trial and I'd have to wonder if he'll get home.
I think I'll pick from the five I have left on my shortlist but I'll start by getting it down to four and removing Eminent which was pretty disappointing in the Guineas and seems quite short here to me.
Venice Beech will definitely stay but could be a bit too slow for this. A tempting one with the four places and maybe if I bet two I'd add it especially if I get 1/4 1234.
Best Solution won the Lingfield Trail on softish ground and that was a fair step up in class. Could be the one but I'll pass over it as less solid than Venice Beech.
Permian has had a million runs and been beaten five times which is fairly usual for this trainer. He did win the "proper" trial at York but I'm not sure about a lot of that York form as the races were on watered ground that then got flooded by rain.
Rekindling finished 4th in the Dante when a shorter price than Permian and like I say I wasn't in love with the racing or the track that week. If he'd have run to the way the market expected versus Permian in that race he'd be quite short here. I'm going to say it wasn't such a bad run as he stayed on and he ought to get the trip here. I'll take a chance at a fair price with the extra place.
I'm having 6 Points each-way Rekindling at 25/1 1/4 1234 with Bet365, 28/1 1/5th 1234 with Paddy Power or 22/1 1/5th 12345 with Sky Bet
How can the Lions win in New Zealand?
Warren Gatland's 41-man British Lions squad will play 10 matches in New Zealand starting with the New Zealand Provincial Barbarians on Saturday with three games against the All Blacks starting on June 24th in Auckland.
Facing all five New Zealand Super Rugby franchises in the tour games as well as the tests, former New Zealand coach has described it as ‘The most difficult tour in the history of the game”
The task the Lions face got tougher a week ago when the world class Number Eight Billy Vunipola withdrew through injury and he was one of the first names likely to be penciled into the test XV, not only for his own ball carrying abilities but for his strengths in matching up with All Black captain and number Eight the brilliant Kieran Reed.
That said this is probably the strongest Lions team since the brilliant 1971 and 1974 teams and Gatland has got a hugely competitive 41 players, despite having few injuries already. The problem is that New Zealand are likely even better than in 2015 when they won the Rugby World Cup, having spent 2016 rebuilding after the loss of McCaw and Carter to international retirement. As evidenced in Super Rugby their franchises have gone to another level and are miles above any team in South Africa and Australia.
There are a number of players who are in the best form of their careers, notably with all the flicks, feints and steps boasted by an All Blacks backline that offers the sumptuous skills of Beauden Barrett, Ben Smith and Sonny Bill Williams.
So how might the Lions look to beat them?
1. Owen Farrell's goal-kicking will be key to the Lions' hopes in New Zealand. Out of all the British Lions touring party Farrell would be the possibly the biggest loss, for his attitude and hardness as well as his playing skills.
2 Tadhg Furlong and Jack McGrath gave the New Zealand front-row a torrid time in Chicago and Dublin, and if the Lions unpick the lineout with Maro Itoje and George Kruis, the Lions could well prosper in the set-piece and tight exchanges. If there are injuries to Sam Whitelock and Brodie Retallick, the All Black lock pool isn’t that deep.
Plan A will centre around dominating the set-piece which should be very strong.. They will play for field position, try to keep the All Blacks away from front foot ball in the final third and back to point 1 look to kick their goals
3 Surprise names in the touring party were Jared Payne, Ross Moriarty and Ben Te’o. They all have something in common, which is a hugely physical element to their game in attack and defence, indicating that the direct approach is likely, through the middle again with the aim of keeping the All Blacks on the back foot.
4 The Lions coaching staff will have thought long and hard on how to nullify the All Blacks outside the 15m channel where Kieran Read and the back tree are absolutely fantastic in wide areas. Add to that Beauden Barrett peppering the wide-channels with perfectly executed kicks and defence in general and the Lions’ back three positioning and alertness to the high-ball in particular will have to be precise. There were nine backs selected who have played at No 15 in their career.
All of these points point to “Warrenball” the term coined for Gatland’s coaching style that we have seen with Wales over the years. All Blacks coach Steve Hansen said in a recent press conference
“He likes his big ball carriers in the middle of the park and his big, grunty forwards so that’s what he’s picked.”
Last week Edie Jones expressed skepticism that this approach would work
“They have picked a certain style of team based on the influence of the Welsh coaches. So I think they are looking to attack like Wales with big, gain-line runners with not much ball movement. I think you struggle to beat the All Blacks like that."
New Zealand are double world champions, they have two Tests in Auckland where they have not lost since 1994 (when they lost 23-20 to France) and rightly are overwhelming favourites to win the series.
The Lions could come back having lost the Test series 2-1, win all the midweek games and if so should be seen as a very good side, better than the team who won a series in Australia in 2013 in all likelihood. Winning a test and all the franchise matches is far from a given though.
Brodders Football Analysis
Sign up to Brodders match analysis and recommended bets here for £50 a month. You are free to cancel at any time.
Long term profit over 3+ years. Following all bets subscribers are winning £24,601 (£10 a point, average bet £150) +ROI 5.2% (correct at 08/05/17)
|
Euro & other Football by Brodders (monthly) |
|
|
|
|
Bookmaker reviews and advice
Getting the best price available is very important for all those who take their betting seriously.
Please open an account with all those bookmakers on the page on this link that you do not already have an account with using the links provided.
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
If you had bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since our launch in Feb 2013 you would be winning + £38,877.00.
All bets have an ROI +4.44%.
A £4000 bank (see FAQ re bank-roll requirements) betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £42,877 an 972% increase
(correct at 08/05/17)
