The Road to Riches: Weekend of 9th-10th December

Coming Up this weekend

- Football, the Premier League fixtures include Manchester United v Manchester City and Liverpool v Everton.

- Golf On the USPGA Tour the QBE Shootout at Tiburon GC. On the European Tour the Joburg Open.

- Racing, Over the jumps at Aintree, Chepstow, Sandown and Wetherby. All weather racing at Wolverhampton.

- Rugby Union, Third round of pool matches in the 2017-18 European Champions Cup

- Snooker, the final stages of the UK Championship in York

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NFL Week Fourteen

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European Rugby Champions Cup Saturday 7.45pm Munster v Leicester Tigers

The two teams at the top of Pool 4 meet in Limerick, Leicester top by virtue of two bonus points gained in losing 22-18 to Racing in round 1 and in thrashing Castres at home in round 2 54-29. Munster meanwhile drew at Castres 17-17 in round 1 then ground out a 14-7 win at home to Racing in Round 2

In groups with only six games and the five group winners and three best placed runners up only making the knock out stages winning home games is vital and here Munster, roared on a passionate crowd often in inhospitable weather have had a n advantage stretching back many years and this is a key game in the group where it is likely that only one team will progress.

These two are no strangers to each other and go head to head in Europe for the third successive season. Leicester won in Munster in 2015 but were pummelled 38-0 this time last year.

Munster’s core, based around O’Mahoney and Stander in the back row and Conor Murray at scrum half, is very strong and allows them to play an attritional style when conditions demand which looking at Saturday’s forecast for the west coast of Ireland it might do. They’ve only conceded 31 points in their two ERCC games so far, which speaks to a strong defence.

Leicester are emerging from a transitional phase that has seen two coaching changes and a turnover of marquee players including the recruitment of England’s George Ford and Jonny May in the off-season. They have firepower, sticking 54 points on Castres (albeit the worst travellers of any of the French teams) was impressive but their domestic record in the Aviva Premiership is mixed, sitting 6^th with four defeats already. In terms of being the finished article they aren’t at the level of Exeter and Saracens especially in the second and back row which happens to be Munster’s strength.

Since the last round of pool matches Munster have stuck 36 and 49 points on Pro 14 teams at home while Leicester have conceded 33 and 32 points away at Bath and Wasps respectively.

Munster are 1/3 favourites here and -7 on the handicap at 10/11, and 6/4+ to win by 1-12 points with Sportingbet and Skybet

8 points Munster to win by 1-12 points 13/8 Bet365, Sportingbet and Skybet

Old Man Yells at Cloud

Plenty of football fans have a degree of scepticism about the use of statistics while others particularly in the betting fraternity are happy to embrace them, looking at assists, shots, tackles, passes and fouls to help understanding. Interceptions can highlight an impressive reading of the game; conversion rate can help to prove one player has better finishing than another; distance covered and sprints let us prove someone really is lazy, the list goes on.

The Football mainstream though has not followed the path of other sports, particularly those in America, where in-depth analysis is commonplace and much more readily available. For example Quarterback rating is ingrained in NFL coverage, and Wins above Replacement in baseball is widely used as a metric to establish the value of individual players. These are metrics from which more can be learned about a player than mere passes, aerial duels or clearances in football.

The in-depth analysis that football clubs do behind the scenes remains private but is increasing in both quality and quantity. The result is that the majority of fans are not exposed to the level of statistical analysis that is going on in footballl.

Many fans have no interest in such deep analysis and are presumably happy to enjoy football as they have done up to now. Managers like Harry Redknapp have played down the use of performance analysis with scientific evidence as an aid.

"You can look at stats as much as you want but you can have too much of it. You can spend too much time looking at computers rather than looking at the real thing which is out there on the pitch”.

Some of the biggest strides towards mainstream football opening up to deeper analysis is through the use of 'Expected goals' which assesses the probability that any individual shot will - or should - be scored.

Ted Knutson, the American co-founder of Statsbomb and a leading exponent of xG, believes the statistical revolution is only just beginning.

"I think we're just getting started on the use of stats in football. A few clubs out there, including some in the Champions League have adopted this approach, both in England in Europe,"

Meanwhile there is a thirst for knowledge and football statistics. @OptaJoe, Opta's main Twitter account has nearly one million followers; the accounts for WhoScored and Squawka each have well over 600,000.

However how much do they want? Recently on Soccer Saturday, an outlet which is a proxy for the mainstream and casual football fan, Jeff Stelling went on a rant and the subject was Expected goals.

Stelling observed to his Soccer Saturday colleagues that Arsène Wenger had “quoted expected goals!”, a comment that was accompanied by an audible “No!” from one of the panel (Phil Thompson). “He’s the first person I’ve ever heard take any notice of expected goals, which must be the most useless stat in the history of football! What does it tell you? The game’s finished 3-1, why do you show expected goals afterwards?”

In terms of the mainstream football remains behind its sporting rivals, and we continue to await the data revolution that America has already seen, in public at least. Reasoned and intelligent progress in the world of football data will be seen as a positive for the most part, and many will enjoy its advancement but its a way off being adopted wholesale by pundits!

Brodders Football Analysis

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The Road to Riches: Weekend of 2nd-3rd December

Coming Up this weekend

- Football, the Premier League fixtures include Arsenal v Manchester United.

- Cricket, the second Ashes Test in Adelaide.

- Racing, Over the jumps at Bangor, Doncaster, Newbury and Newcastle. All weather racing at Wolverhampton.

- Rugby Union, The Autumn Internationals conclude with Wales v South Africa

- Rugby League, the World Cup final, Australia v England.

NFL Week Thirteen

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Free tip

NFL Carolina Panthers at New Orleans Saints Sunday 9.25pm

This is a key game in the NFC South with first and second in the division meeting in New Orleans.

The Saints have become a much more rounded team this season, and this reflects in their win-loss record. As is often the case in franchises experiencing rapid improvement there has been some skill in roster construction and some good fortune too.

The skill has been primarily draft related as this off-season they acquired two top pieces in the defensive secondary that have helped transform a leaky defense but also a starting right tackle (who has really helped the run game) and in the third round the running back Alvin Kamara who is currently the leading candidate for offensive rookie of the year.

Going into this game Kamara has a touchdown in five straight games and is averaging 8.1 yards per touch on 123 touches this season. No running back in the last 25 years has averaged 8+ yards per play on 100+ touches He's averaging 13.8 touches per game over last five games and overall has 77 carries -566 yards and 5 touchdowns on the ground and 54 receptions-548 yards-and 4 touchdowns through the air and has to be a live candidate in any first touchdown market

The increased reliance on the running game coincides with the tail end of quarterback Drew Brees’ career, where he doesn’t quite have the arm he used to so the offense has changed from a big play down the field approach to something that is far more balanced, helped by the offensive line improvements.

However it is not all Kamara as Mark Ingram may be playing his way toward being a free agent in 2018. According to the terms of Ingram's contract signed in 2015, there is a clause that allows him to be a free agent in 2018 (and earn a lucrative third NFL contract) based on his performance in 2017 specifically if he is voted as a First-Team All-Pro. What helps him is that AP has changed the composition of their All-Pro team, with two running backs now chosen in the first team. Motivation is therefore high to perform on a weekly basis.

The Saints signed Adrian Peterson to great fanfare in the 2017 offseason. When that didn’t work out they traded him to Arizona after a few weeks of the season. Ingram has rushed for 839 yards on 166 carries with eight touchdowns, while adding 213 receiving yards and 8 touchdowns all since that trade.

Ingram is averaging 5 yards per rush more than a full yard-per-rush better than the elague’s leading rusher Le-Veon Bell. Going back to the start of 2014 Ingram has racked up 29 rushing touchdowns (tied for third most league-wide) and 3,582 yards (sixth).

So for a 5 point home favourite with a prolific offense which running back should we favour in the first touchdown market? Firstly it’s a key divisional game which suggests that minimising risks is key. Secondly the Panthers have a terrific sideline to sideline middle linebacker in Luke Kuechly who could well limit Kamara’s production, After Kamara’s fantastic performance in LA last weekend, they will certainly be game-planning for him first and foremost. All of these factors suggest to me a heavy dose of the “bell cow” back Ingram in what is now a run first offense

8 points Mark Ingram First Touchdown scorer New Orleans Saints v Carolina Panthers 7-1 Bet365 and others.

The Sack Race

So far this season Premier League clubs are reacting more quickly in sacking their managers than in previous seasons. Thirteen matches down and five changes have been made with the likelihood of more to come. 2017-18 is the fourth "worst" season for managerial sackings at this stage of a campaign in Premier League history, and the worst in the past decade. This time last season only one manager had been sacked ( Guidolin ) and it was not until late February ( Ranieri) that the fifth change was made. With four of the five changes so far this season, the exception being Frank de Boer, the same managers led their clubs to mid-table last season finishing seventh, 10th, 11th and 12th.

Of course every year managerial changes are fuelled by the fear of being relegated and the loss of revenue even allowing for parachute payments. The greater fear is that clubs will drop through the Championship (Wigan, Blackburn, potentially Sunderland) or display such instability (Leeds, Aston Villa) that the prospect of an immediate return is unlikely.

However there are other factors at play. Firstly the role of the manager has been diminished in this era of the Director of Football. Managers can be replaced without too much upheaval and, certainly, less cost than being relegated.

Secondly this season climbing the table after a poor start cannot be assumed. Part of the reason for that is that the promoted clubs are all doing well in mid-table. It has been axiomatic to assume that one or more of the promoted teams would go straight back down. That buffer for existing top flight clubs has begun to break down though. It might be the beginnings of an argument that the bottom half of the Premier League is not markedly better than the top half of the Championship.

The BBC recently looked back at the past 10 Premier League seasons and in all but one instance where a club sacked a manager during October and November, their average points-per-game return increased over the remainder of the season. Excluding this year, that's 10 sackings/resignations during that two-month period, nine with an ultimately positive impact which is of course a small sample but no club that has sacked their manager in October or November during the past decade has gone on to finish lower than their position at the time of the dismissal.

There is likely to be more change to come. While summer is an obvious time for change, owners get trigger happy during December when an upcoming transfer window moves to the forefront of minds.

Brodders Football Analysis

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This week Brodders published an in depth ante post Champions League write up covering outrights/ groups/ goal-scorer bets

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If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £40,648 All bets have an ROI +4.01%

A £4000 bank (see FAQ re bank-roll requirements) betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £44,648 a 1016% increase

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The Road to Riches Weekend of 25th-26th November

Coming Up this weekend

- Football, the Premier League fixtures include Liverpool v Chelsea

- Cricket, the first Ashes Test in Brisbane

- Racing,. Over the jumps at Ascot, Haydock and Huntingdon. All weather racing at.Lingfield and Wolverhampton

- Tennis, the Davis Cup final, France v Belgium in Lille

- Golf, On the European Tour the UBS Hong Kong Open

- Formula One, the final Grand Prix of the season in Abu Dhabi

- Rugby Union The Autumn Internationals continue including Walesv New Zealand and Scotland v Australia

- Rugby League, the World Cup Semi finals in Australia: Australia v Fiji and x v y

NFL Week Twelve

So far this season Neil is showing a profit of £1250 at £10 a point with a ROI of 11.75%

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Free tip by Neil Channing

Betfair Chase, Haydock 3pm Saturday

 I'm having 10 Points WIN Outlander at 5/1 generally

Worst to First

The Houston Astros baseball World Series Victory last month completed a remarkable turn-around. The Astros possessed the MLB's worst record in 2011, 2012 and 2013.  In 2012 they were 40 games under .500 and at one stage lost 25 times in 28 games.

In 2012 Jeff Luhnow was hired from the St Louis Cardinals to be the new general manager and over the next three years he completely transformed the club. Historically it has been difficult to transform losing baseball teams into contenders for structural reasons. Unlike the NFL where a salary cap levels the playing field MLB franchise revenue is derived from locally negotiated TV deals. The bigger the City and the bigger the TV market, the larger the deal. So teams like the New York Yankees, Boston Red Sox and LA Dodgers receive the most, spend the most and are found contending most years. A luxury tax capped over-spending somewhat but the league was still inequitablel.

In 2012 though, baseball enacted a new collective bargaining agreement that greatly incentivised losing teams giving them most money to spend on amateur talent. This began to level the playing field and make it possible for non-contending teams to compete for the best young talent. Houston became one of the prime beneficiaries of this, amassing a deep "farm" system that not only produced on-field talent but also the player capital to trade to acquire pieces from other teams when they were later to move into contention themselves.

In that 2012 season, the five worst teams were the Astros, the Chicago Cubs, the Colorado Rockies, the Minnesota Twins and the Cleveland Indians. All made the playoffs this year and the Cubs and the Astros are the last two world series winners. In the 2012 World Series, the San Francisco Giants played the Detroit Tigers. This season, they were the worst teams in the majors.

The Astros had the first pick in the draft in each of 2012, 2013 and 2014. In 2012 they used the first pick on their now superstar shortstop Carlos Correa. However 2013 and 2014 were less successful. In 2013, they chose pitcher Mark Appel who has not appeared in the majors. In 2014, they took a high school pitcher, Brady Aiken who turned out to be injured.

In subsequent unusual moves, as teams are often financially wedded to their highest profile draft picks,  the Astros bailed out on their two disappointments, not signing Aiken and using the compensatory draft pick they gained as a result on Alex Bregman, now their starting third baseman.. Then after bullpen collapsed in a 2015 division-series loss to Kansas City, the Astros traded with Philadelphia for closer Ken Giles, putting Appel in a five-player package.

Correa reached the majors within three years and won the American League Rookie of the Year Award in 2015. He hit .315 with 24 home runs this season.Giles, meanwhile, converted 34 of 38 save chances this year and has averaged 13 strikeouts per nine innings over two seasons with Houston.Bregman hit .284 with 19 home runs and 17 steals in his first full major league season.

In 2013 Houston began the season with the lowest payroll in the league, $22m. By 2017 Houston’s payroll was $124m,18^th in the MLB and about half the LA Dodgers, who they beat in the World Series, at $242m but their moves had turned them into contenders.

As they became contenders there was another switch in strategy, making a blockbuster trade to acquire all-pro pitcher Justin Verlander from the Detroit Tigers who were now starting their own rebuilding phase. This was the move that helped push the Astros over the top. They won 101 games in the regular season this year and then they won 11 games in the post series and won for the title for the first time in 56 year history.

I am sucker for a good sporting story and big turn-arounds through innovative management. Next? Possibly the Cleveland Browns in the NFL with the NFL's worst record in 2015, 2016 and still winless in 2017. All eyes on the Super Bowl in 2021?

Brodders Football Analysis

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This week Brodders published an in depth ante post Champions League write up covering outrights/ groups/ goal-scorer bets

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Bookmaker reviews and advice

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Betting Emporium results

The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS

If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £40,648 All bets have an ROI +4.01%

A £4000 bank (see FAQ re bank-roll requirements) betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £44,648 a 1016% increase

(correct at 30/10/17)

The Road to Riches Weekend of 17th-18th November

Coming Up this weekend

- Football, the Premier League returns after the International break, fixtures including Arsenal v Tottenham.

- Racing,. Over the jumps at Cheltenham, Uttoxeter and Wetherby. All weather racing at Lingfield and Wolverhampton.

- Tennis, the ATP finals in London.

- Golf, On the USPGA the RSM Classic at Sea Island, Georgia and on the European Tour the DP World Tour Championship in Dubai

- Rugby Union The Autumn Internationals continue including England v Australia,  Scotland v New Zealand and France v South Africa.

NFL Week Eleven

So far this season Neil is showing a profit of £1250 at £10 a point with a ROI of 11.75%

The cost for sign up for the regular season is now £50

Coming Soon

Free Ashes series tips

The series begins on the 23^rd November in Brisbane. Last time down under of course England lost 5-0 and expectations are low this time round, especially because of the absence of Ben Stokes, an “X Factor” match winner.

There is especially pessimism about England’s batting described by one cricket correspondent as the “worst to ever leave these shores!” Betting markets reflect this as it is 13/2 bar Cook and Root in the Top England batsman market

However even though they are strong favourites, it feels strange to suddenly vault Australia into an unbeatable force considering the team's batting instability and a mish-mash of results in recent years. Consider the Top Australia batsman market where there are question marks beyond the front two, Warner and Smith

It is a similar story in the fast bowling ranks where clearly Australia have a formidable trio in Starc, Hazlewood and Cummins but England have Anderson and Broad. Beyond the front line stars though, depth is an issue for both sides.

Odds for the first Test are Australia 4/5, England 9/4, the Draw 9/2 and for the series Australia 2/5 and England 7/2, with the draw (and England retaining the Ashes) up to 8/1

The head of the correct score market sees Australia 3-1 and 4-1 as 5/1 and 13/2 favorites respectively.

I think it will be far closer than that, the inevitable incidence of injuries to key players is going to be crucial and Australia just aren’t that superior a side to England and both have similar weaknesses and rely on three or four key players each. The result of the series may depend on good or bad fortune with injuries for those seven or eight key players across both sides. For example if Anderson or Broad go down,you would have to be worried about England’s bowling plan B, but the same applies for Starc and Hazlewood too

Onto some of the value in sub-markets

England Batsman

England obviously have two top class performers in Root and Cook.

There has to be an opportunity to take on the front two for value here given the short prices around them and the issue here surrounds England’s weaknesses in the top order. England have been 50/3 or worse 11 times in last 12months in 14 tests, twice each against South Africa and the West Indies at home last sumer and no less than seven times last winter in Bangladesh and India.

Partnering Cook England have cycled through Hameed, Jennings and now onto Stoneman over that period and have now used at 12 openers since Andrew Strauss retired in 2012.

Beyond that the number three position has been a continual problem and frequently numbers 6-8 have rescued totals, and a batting order with Bairstow at 7 and Moeen Ali at 8 has been an enviable strength, and both will have to move up one in the order with Stokes missing

Clearly Stoneman, Vince and/or Ballance and Malan in top five have a lot to prove and Cook and Root have to be favourites in this market.

Root averages 53.76 in 60 Tests, and has 13-hundreds and 32 fifties in 110 innings. His quality is unquestionable yet what we know the market knows and he’s 6/4.

At 5/2 Cook might be slightly past his best against the best fast bowling. Since 2013 he has “only” scored a test century every 6.3 matches compared to every 3.7 before 2014.

However for value I do think that Bairstow at 13/2 (batting six, avoiding the new ball barrage and able to counter-attack) is interesting value.

England bowler

Who said this about who recently?

"At 35, with almost five back-to-back Test matches, is he going to be as influential? We'd like to say hopefully but realistically? Unlikely. Hopefully he might get a couple of wickets where he is going to be influential."

That was Graham Gooch's assessment of James Anderson and his chances of success this winter. It seems a fair question whether England's record Test wicket-taker can replicate his home form in Australia but Anderson took 24 wickets at 26 in 2010/11 in Australia and his struggles away from home have also been exaggerated as an average of 29.2 since 2010 outside of England shows. After a couple of injury-disrupted years, Anderson also got through all seven summer Tests unscathed.

Of course, if he can stay fit, it remains to be seen whether he can repeat his heroics of seven years ago and again make the necessary adjustments to succeed with the Kookaburra ball on bouncier pitches with less movement through the air and off the seam.

Stuart Broad was involved in just two Tests last time, an injury in the second ruling him out of the remainder of the series. Even if the new ball pair do find their best form this winter, they will be reliant on Chris Woakes and whoever is selected ( I would expect Overton, Curran and Ball to platoon here across a series) as the fourth seamer to provide dependable back-up.

With Anderson and Broad at skinny prices (both 9/4 or shorter) in this market I think Woakes is an interesting price at 7/2. Already described this tour as “back to his absolute best” he is established as third seamer and should particularly suit the well thatched drop in pitch for the day/night pink ball Adelaide test. I had a passing look at Moeen Ali at 6-1, he will play all five matches ( if fit, the recent side strain is a concern) and be the stock bowler even if conditions don’t immediately set up to suit

Australia batting

All eyes here on Smith and Warner who are 7/4 joint favourites in this market with Usman Khawaja 5/1, 7/1 bar.

Smith has scored at a world class of 59.6 after 56 Tests including 20-hundreds and 21 fifties in 104 innings and looks a very solid favourite here,a much more effective batsman on firm true pitches in Australia than over here against the moving ball for example.

Beyond the front three in the market Australia have issues of their own. I think England will be pleased Renshaw (184 in last Test in Australia) and Maxwell (obvious all-round danger) have been overlooked and Bancroft/Shaun Marsh selected.Tim Paine is a real left field selection as wicketkeeper-batsman too. You’d be hard pressed to make the case than any of these five players mentioned are a lock for all five tests

What I do know is that Peter Handscomb will bat 5 all series and has 740 runs in his first ten tests. He appeals most of the relative outsiders at 8-1+.

Australia bowler

Incredibly the much vaunted first choice trio have never played a Test together due to continual injury problems. Mitchell Starc is brilliant, of course and bang in form. He will be looking at England’s top five and trying to contain his excitement. He’s taken four wickets or more 16 times in 36 tests. At 5/4 though prices already assume he’ll have his great series.

Alongside him Josh Hazlewood has featured in 31 Tests so far with 118 wickets. A probing swing bowler, he is the metronome alongside two attacking enforcers and will benefit from the dramas created by Starc at the other end and given his accuracy at 9/4 is better value given there will be technical deficiencies to go at in the England batting.

Backing them up Pat Cummins (9/2) is an outright quick and likely to be a real handful at Adelaide and Perth in particular. First choice spinner Nathan Lyon (11/2) remains in the side.

The three first choice quickshave to be short odds not to get through five tests in a short time span unscathed though. After them Australia's pace stocks have taken a battering with James Pattinson ruled out of the series and Nathan Coulter-Nile suffering a new back injury. Jackson Bird is likely to back the front three up.

Recommendations

7 points Top England batsman Jonny Bairstow 13/2 William Hill 6/1 generally

10 points Top England bowler Chris Woakes 7/2 William Hill 3/1 generally

10 points Top Australia Batsman Steve Smith 15/8 Skybet 7/4 generally

4 points Top Australia Batsman Peter Handscomb 9/1 Ladbrokes/Coral

10 points Top Australia Bowler Josh Hazlewood 9/4 Skybet, Ladbrokes/Coral

4 points Series Correct Score 2-2 at 8-1 William Hill, 7-1 generally

Brodders Football Analysis

Sign up to Brodders match analysis and recommended bets here for £50 a month. You are free to cancel at any time.

This week Brodders published an in depth ante post Champions League write up covering outrights/ groups/ goal-scorer bets

Long term profit over more than three years. Following all bets subscribers are winning £21,758 (£10 a point, average bet £150) +ROI 3.78% (correct at 30/10/17)

Bookmaker reviews and advice

Getting the best price available is very important for all those who take their betting seriously.

Please open an account with all those bookmakers on the page on this link that you do not already have an account with using the links provided.

There are literally hundreds of pounds on offer from bookmakers just for signing up through Bettingemporium.com

Betting Emporium results

The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS

If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £40,648 All bets have an ROI +4.01%

A £4000 bank (see FAQ re bank-roll requirements) betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £44,648 a 1016% increase

(correct at 30/10/17)

The Road to Riches Weekend of 11th-12th November

Coming Up this weekend

- Football, An International Break for the Premier League with England friendlies against Germany and Brazil and the World Cup Play Offs.

- Racing, Flat meetings at Doncaster and Wolverhampton. Over the jumps at Aintree, Kelso and Wincanton.

- Tennis, the Fed Cup Finals in Belarus, Belarus v the USA.

- Golf, On the USPGA The OHL Classic in Mexico and on the European Tour the Nedbank Golf Challenge in South Africa.

- Formula One, the Brazilian Grand Prix.

- Rugby Union The Autumn Internationals begin including England v Argentina, Wales v Australia, France v New Zealand and Ireland v South Africa.

NFL Week Ten

The cost for sign up for the regular season is now £60

Coming Soon

Free tip

Rugby Union Wales v Australia Saturday 5.15pm BBC2

The month of Autumn Internationals beginning this weekend represent the start of the International season for the Northern Hemisphere sides and the end of a long season for the Southern Hemisphere teams and a chance for all teams to measure progress half way towards the 2019 World Cup in Japan.

Australia have won their past 12 internationals against Wales (including last year 32-8) last losing in 2008 but they arrived in Wales on Monday battle-hardened and buoyed by a Bledisloe Cup victory in Brisbane over New Zealand last month.

The two meet in the 2019 World Cup in Japan. It will be the fourth time they have been pooled together with Wales yet to win. Victory for Australia on Saturday would not only extend the Wallabies’ winning run in the fixture to 13 but give them a psychological advantage before the September 2019 meeting in Tokyo.

Unfortunately for this match Wales are injury hit and do not yet have the depth in their pool of players to withstand such losses.

Wales field an unfamiliar back row with Justin Tipuric yet to train since suffering a thigh injury last month. With the Lions’ captain, Sam Warburton, out until the new year and the player who stood in at openside against Samoa in the summer, Ellis Jenkins, also injured, Wales’s have picked Josh Navidi and Aaron Shingler who have 13 caps between them. In this era where fast ball and winning the breakdown is crucial as the first step to unpicking well-marshalled rugby league style defences the inexperienced Wales flankers have to compete against the excellent Australia captain Michael Hooper, one of the world class players the visitors can field

The scrum-half Rhys Webb, a summer Lion along with Tipuric, is also missing sat out training since suffering a knee injury playing for Ospreys against Clermont Auvergne last month. The selection of Owen Williams at 12 suggests a somewhat conservative “two fly halfs” approach.

Still coached by Warren Gatland, Wales will be spiky and competitive but have yet,over many years under this coaching team, to consistently open up the best defences in their attack with a somewhat prosaic and direct style of play coined “Warrenball”, this despite the talents of Jonathan Davies, Liam Wlliams and the currently injured George North in their back-line.

Australia were at a low ebb after the last World Cup, for example losing 3-0 to England at home two summers ago but have been recovering since with a core of top class players (Folau,Hooper,Genia, Kuridrani to name a few) supplemented by a crop of emerging young players and thus greater strength in depth. Folau misses the tour on a sabbatical but the player who could generate some buzz is NRL convert Marika Koroibete. The former Melbourne Storm winger has four tries in four Tests and looks to have picked up the nuances of rugby defence, and breakdown work, better than any previous Australian rugby league convert.

“We’ll be looking to pick our best side for every Test of the tour,” stressed Michael Cheika this week “These are important matches and we want to be build a consistent, winning mindset and that’s something we want to pass on to next year’s team.”

Their last two games against the All Blacks were significant steps. Firstly they led in the rugby Championship game in Dunedin deep in the second half before losing to a last gasp try, then beating them 23-18 in Brisbane. Anything close to that form here and Wales won’t be living with them for 80-minutes

Yet prices assume a closer game than I do. Wales are were 6/5 a few days ago and have drifted out on the team news, underdogs to Australia at now 4/7 from 8/11. Australia can justifiably be backed at -5 (from -3) on the point handicap at 10/11.

For this column, I think a winning margin of two scores plus is feasible.

6 points Australia to win by 13+ points 8/5 Ladbrokes/Coral, 5/2 Betfred or 12/5 Sportingbet, Betfair Sportsbook

Sitting Up and Taking Notice

The Champions League group stage is now two thirds complete, four games per team played and two each to come and for English clubs the picture is very encouraging indeed. Even before we consider results so far, the Premier League has five entrants this season thanks to Manchester United’s victory in last season’s Europa League but four of the five English clubs top their groups.

Of the 20 matches involving English clubs in the Champions League so far, 15 have been won, four drawn and only one loss, Chelsea in Rome last week.Looking at teams from the other major leagues Spanish teams have played 16, won seven, drawn six times and been beaten three times. The three German teams have so far recorded more defeats than victories – P12 W4 D3 L5.

If our teams were struggling to qualify, it would be discussed non-stop. The reverse is being discussed a bit less even after the stand out result of those twenty games with Tottenham following their point in the Bernabeu with their win over Real Madrid at Wembley. The last time Real lost a group game in the Champions League was October 2012 and only Ronaldo’s late consolation protected their record of only failing to score in only one of 53 group games since that defeat.

Of course it is early days, the likes of PSG and Barcelona lie in wait for later on and the English malaise normally starts in earnest in the knockout rounds, once the gruelling festive fixture programme and lack of a winter break have both taken their toll.

When English clubs made early exits last season Steve McManaman said it was because few Premier League sides were stable enough to permit a sustained challenge in Europe. “Look at last-stage regulars like Real Madrid, Barcelona and Bayern Munich and they don’t change much from year to year,” he suggested. “You just see small nuances here and there, whereas in England the response to an unsuccessful season is often to rip everything up and start again.”

A year ago managers such as Guardiola, Mourinho and  Klopp were rebuilding clubs and squads and Tottenham were still coming to terms with the Champions League. This season every manager in charge of an English Champions League club is now in at least his second season. Guardiola has invested another £200m+ and solidified his defence too, Mourinho has also spent substantially while Pochettino is managing a strong side that is growing in terms of confidence and experience. Of course we can all have doubts about Liverpool’s defence and Chelsea’s squad depth but so far so good

At the same time Bayern have already changed coaches this season, Barcelona lost Neymar and there are rumblings about Zidane at Real. Perhaps not quite a changing of the guard yet, but possibly signs that English representation at the business end of this season’s competition is not a forlorn hope.

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