Weekly Articles "Road to Riches" by Rich 'Tighty' Prew
The Road to Riches Weekend of 2nd-3rd June
Coming up this weekend
- Football, International Friendlies including England v Nigeria at Wembley.
- Cricket, the second test between England and Pakistan at Headingley
- Rugby Union, Summer tours begin, South Africa v Wales in Washington DC this weekend.
- Racing, Derby Weekend at Epsom. Also on the flat at Chepstow, Doncaster, Lingfield and Musselburgh and over the jumps at Hexham and Worcester.
- Tennis, the middle weekend of the French Open.
- Golf, on the USPGA the Memorial at Muirfield Village and on the European Tour the Italian Open.
FIFA 2018 World Cup (14th June-15th July): Included in the Brodders Section
2016 Euro Championships results +£4098.30 +31.43% (to £10 a point) / 2014 World Cup results +£772.30 +11.19% ROI
By signing up to Brodders you will get all his match analysis on the World Cup games with details of all the bets that we have, plus the write ups on any other matches that he does including regular European league games. Subs are £50 a month and there is no contract so you are free to cancel at any time.
On top of that you will get the now published extensive outright preview and ante-post write up. You can see Brodders long term record over the last few years and results in full here as well the the graphs below tracking his progress.
Sign up to Brodders and the 2018 FIFA World Cup here
If you are an existing Brodders subscriber you don't need to do (or pay) anything differently. The World Cup is just included for you on the usual links.
Royal Ascot (Full Package) 19th - 23rd June 2018
Neil’s write-ups, analysis and tips for every race of the festival which takes place from 19th - 23rd June 2018 costs £199
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The 2018 Investec Derby by Neil Channing (Saturday 4.30pm)
The End of the Wild West?
A fortnight ago the Supreme Court ruled a 25-year old federal law known as the Professional and Amateur Sports Protection Act (PASPA) unconstitutional, opening the door for fully legalised sports betting in the US including at venues.
The Supreme Court panel ruled by a 7–2 vote in favour of New Jersey (only the state of Nevada is exempt), which puts the decision on whether to legalise it in the hands of each individual state. Bills are already passed in 5 states and introduced in 14 others. A 2017 report estimated that as many as 32 states could offer legal sports betting within the next five years.
The NFL has been more reluctant than other leagues to embrace the possibility of legislative change but that attitude has changed over the last year. They have shifted into planning for the new business opportunity that is opening up.
The NFL will study the NBA. The NBA has been aggressive saying it will seek a 1% cut of all basketball-related bets. They liken to this to an “integrity fee,” or a “royalty to the league.” Some states have baulked and the NBA have expressed a willingness to take less than 1%.
Some gambling advocates say cutting into sportsbooks’ profits with such fees could force them to offer tighter odds, which could push bettors back to the illegal markets.
As it stands, NFL teams are not allowed to have deals with casinos that have sports books and can’t use the word “casino” in any advertising they sell. It’s fair to say a casino with a sports book wouldn’t mind exposure to 80,000 keen sports fans on a weekly basis.
NFL Owners believe there’s money to be made in allowing fans in the stands to bet on in-game situations via phone apps adding to the entertainment value of the in-stadium experience. At a time when the NFL is having issues convincing the public to go to stadiums, there’s potential for the change here to be transformative. Meanwhile legalisation introduces new, creative ways to make an NFL Sunday more interactive than ever. The idea of sitting watching three games in a row for 12 hours doesn’t appeal to the younger fan like it did for the generation before them.
Finally the NFL is thinking of what it needs to do in the sphere of Information provision for example in areas like injury reports and other game information to ensure that everyone operating in gambling markets is on the same playing field.
Brodders Football Analysis
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Bookmaker reviews and advice
Getting the best price available is very important for all those who take their betting seriously.
Please open an account with all those bookmakers on the page on this link that you do not already have an account with using the links provided.
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £39,710.60 All bets have an ROI +3.46%
A £4000 bank (see FAQ re bank-roll requirements) betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £43,710.60 an 993% increase
(correct at 26/04/2018)
The Road to Riches Weekend of 26th-27th May
Coming up this weekend
- Football, the Football League play off finals including Fulham v Aston Villa in the Championship.
- Cricket, the first test between England and Pakistan continues at Lords and the IPL final on Sunday
- Formula One, the Monaco Grand Prix.
- Racing, On the flat at Chester, Goodwood, Haydock, Salisbury and York and also over the jumps at Cartmel and Ffos Las.
- Tennis, ATP Events in Geneva and Lyon.
- Golf, on the USPGA the Forth Worth Invitational and Colonial and on the European Tour the BMW PGA Championship at Wentworth.
Starting Sunday: French Tennis Open Package: Roland Garros 27st May -10th June 2018
Nigel has a long term winning record on the tennis and if you had followed the packages for all our French Opens so far (2014-2017) you would have won £2459 betting £10 a point with a +ROI of 21.99%
Outright previews are out now.
Full package £50 see here
FIFA 2018 World Cup (14th June-15th July): Included in the Brodders Section OUT MIDDAY SATURDAY!
2016 Euro Championships results +£4098.30 +31.43% (to £10 a point) / 2014 World Cup results +£772.30 +11.19% ROI
By signing up to Brodders you will get all his match analysis on the World Cup games with details of all the bets that we have, plus the write ups on any other matches that he does including regular European league games. Subs are £50 a month and there is no contract so you are free to cancel at any time.
On top of that you will get an extensive outright preview and ante-post write up as well (this is written by Richard Prew with input from Brodders and other Betting Emporium experts). You can see Brodders long term record over the last few years and results in full here as well the the graphs below tracking his progress.
Sign up to Brodders and the 2018 FIFA World Cup here
If you are an existing Brodders subscriber you don't need to do (or pay) anything differently. The World Cup is just included for you on the usual links.
Royal Ascot (Full Package) 19th - 23rd June 2018
Neil’s write-ups, analysis and tips for every race of the festival which takes place from 19th - 23rd June 2018 costs £199
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IPL Final Chennai Super Kings v Sunrisers Hyderabad Sunday 27th May 2.30pm Mumbai
In their play-off game against Sunrisers on Tuesday, played between the top two teams in the group stages and with the winner going straight to the final, Fanie Du Plessis hit a match-winning 66* as CSK just got home chasing 140. CSK collapsed to 66-6 in their reply and then needing 43 off the final two and a bit overs produced incredible hitting when all seemed lost, and Sunrisers’ record of defending low totals in improbable victories came to an end.
This season alone CSK have come from nowhere four times to win scoring 47 off 2.5 overs v Mumbai, 41 off 2.5 vs KKR, 44 off 2.4 vs RCB and now 43 off 2.1 v Sunrisers. Back in the IPL after their year-long suspension and with the core of their team intact for many years CSK are a formidable outfit. Two time IPL Champions, this will be their seventh IPL final. Such is their record that one commentator described the IPL as 'A tournament where seven teams play to meet CSK in the final'
CSK are probably only a year or two away from their long running core breaking up. Watson, Bravo, Dhoni amongst others are all near the end of their careers but their depth in experience (Raina and Jadeja amongst them) and match-winners batting right down the order means they will go off favourites in this match, as has been the case all season
On a better pitch than the Eliminator game against Rajastan earlier in the week Sunrisers struggled up to 174 in the semi-fnal with ony late Rashid Khan hitting getting them to a reasonable total when earlier 150 looked unlikey. KKR are a dangerous batting side if their top order comes off. Lynn and the pinch hitter Narine play to get quick starts in the powerplay (67 and 66 in their two games versus Sunrisers this season in Powerplayers where the highest conceded by Hyderabad in the competition) and it was only with the introduction of spin, and Rashid in particular that the game began to turn
Outright prices for the game are CSK 8/11 and Sunrisers 11/10 and I can't argue with that really.
My angle here concerns the CSK captain MS Dhoni, universally recognised as one of the best finishers in the game. We only need to look at the CSK run scoring charts for the 2018 IPL to get a feel for his talent
Bear in mind that the batting order for CSK in the first game of the play offs was Watson, Du Plessis, Raina, Rayadu, Dhoni then Bravo, with Dhoni batting 4 and mostly 5 throughout the competition:
Rayadu 15 matches 586 runs
Dhoni 15-455
Watson 14-438
Raina 14-413
Dhoni has no less than 9 not outs and three fifties this season. When his side is chasing (typically they will chase if they win the toss), he will frequently re-jig the batting order depending on what happens in the early overs to try to ensure he has the maximum chance of being there at the end, and thus maximise his side’s chances of getting home.
The shape of the top CSK batsman market for the final is interesting. Dhoni appears 5th-7th in the betting depending where you look. This is simply incorrect.
Of course we would expect the top three to be at the head of the betting but CSK have a very recent history of poor starts:
39-4 in the play-off game
27-3 in the final group game
With Rashid being so pivotal to this game and a real match winner all tournament the Dhoni has plenty of approaches to counter spin which the blasters elsewhere in the order sometimes lack but depending how the top of the order goes I wouldn't be surprised to see him try to bat the overs Rashid doesn't bowl to ensure he is there at the end of the 20 overs!10 points MS Dhoni Top CSK Run Scorer at 6/1 with Bet365 11/2 William Hill
The Equals
At the end of another Premier League season figures are released on the split of prize and TV money for the season just gone. The Premier League distributes prize money more fairly than most leagues. However there are still inequities built into the system, which is biased to favour big clubs because they finish higher (more money) and get more live TV games (more money).
The 'Big 6' were on TV 161 times last season and the bottom six 56 times. You could argue that this is entirely reasonable in a meritocracy. Looking back over those 26 years six clubs, the top six in the Premier League last season coincidentally, have earned 33% of the league’s prize and TV appearance money, a percentage which has been growing in recent years. Individually each of the top six have now earned over £1bn (£6.6bn in total) while 43 clubs have shared the rest of a total of £20bn.
Everton the only club outside of the Big Six to have been in the Premier League throughout, are not far behind the top six, earning £959m.
Given the meritocratic element to prize money and volume related TV appearance money, an equitable split of the “base” TV rights is in the interests of a competitive league.
Currently each club receives about £12.5m guaranteed then £1.18m per live TV game above 10 games. For prize money the bottom club gets £2m, and each other team gets the same again per position above them. Then providing that measure of equality essential for some competitive balance, above that there are equal shares of domestic TV income, overseas TV income and central commercial income totalling around £82m last season. This produces a spread of income from £98m for Stoke at the bottom to £153m for Manchester City at the top taking last season as an illustration.
Looking forward, there is a dispute over the split of 2019-22 overseas broadcast revenue. The top six would like to drive through major reform to the distribution such that they receive a far greater share of the income. Of course in terms of the impact of marketing the league overseas the big clubs are crucial to the size of any deal, but understandably the other 14 clubs object to another move to reduce equity in income and presumably in due course reduce competitiveness of the league further.
On the outcome of those negotiations might rest the hopes of sides outside the top six from interloping into the higher echelons of the league again in the run up to 2022.
Brodders Football Analysis
Long term profit over more than four years. Following all bets subscribers are winning £22,957.60 (£10 a point, avg bet £150) +ROI 3.46% (correct at 26/04/18)
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Bookmaker reviews and advice
Getting the best price available is very important for all those who take their betting seriously.
Please open an account with all those bookmakers on the page on this link that you do not already have an account with using the links provided.
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £39,710.60 All bets have an ROI +3.46%
A £4000 bank (see FAQ re bank-roll requirements) betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £43,710.60 an 993% increase
(correct at 26/04/2018)
The Road to Riches Weekend of 19th-20th May
Coming up this weekend
- Football, the FA Cup Final between Chelsea and Manchester United.
- Cricket, the IPL continues ahead of the play-offs next week.
- Racing, On the flat at Doncaster, Newbury, Newmarket and Thirsk and also over the jumps at Bangor and Uttoxeter.
- Tennis, ATP Rome, ahead of the French Open.
- Golf, on the USPGA the AT&T Byron Nelson Championship and on the European Tour the Belgian Knockout.
Starting next week: French Tennis Open Package: Roland Garros 21st May -10th June 2018
Nigel has a long term winning record on the tennis and totally smashed the Australian Open earlier this year winning £1242 to £10 a point stakes with an ROI +58.33%
Full package £50 see here
FIFA 2018 World Cup (14th June-15th July): Included in the Brodders Section
2016 Euro Championships results +£4098.30 +31.43% (to £10 a point) / 2014 World Cup results +£772.30 +11.19% ROI
By signing up to Brodders you will get all his match analysis on the World Cup games with details of all the bets that we have, plus the write ups on any other matches that he does including regular European league games. Subs are £50 a month and there is no contract so you are free to cancel at any time.
On top of that you will get an extensive outright preview and ante-post write up as well (this is written by Richard Prew with input from Brodders and other Betting Emporium experts). You can see Brodders long term record over the last few years and results in full here as well the the graphs below tracking his progress.
Sign up to Brodders and the 2018 FIFA World Cup here
If you are an existing Brodders subscriber you don't need to do (or pay) anything differently. The World Cup is just included for you on the usual links.
Royal Ascot (Full Package) 19th - 23rd June 2018
Neil’s write-ups, analysis and tips for every race of the festival which takes place from 19th - 23rd June 2018 costs £199
Sign up here
MustardBet are back!
Tight margins, no account closures and re-bet as often as you like. If you bet the maximum available which is clearly shown on the screen you can bet again afterwards again and again
Read more: here
Open your account and try them out here
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The FA Cup Final
This column is in the fortunate position of having an ante-post bet on Chelsea at 6-1 for the FA Cup, in which they play Manchester United in the final this weekend. I follow Neil Channing’s general view on hedging: we have a bet at a good price, the stake isn’t outside the parameters of a reasonable staking plan and so we’ll let it ride.
In terms of the match itself if we wanted to be bearish on Chelsea it is easy to construct the argument: Conte himself, at the end of a fractious season, might have checked out. With (an albeit remote) prospect of a top four Premier League place up for grabs Chelsea lost 3-0 at Newcastle last Sunday in a very half-hearted effort.
Simultaneously the case for Manchester United is easily made. Often somewhat defensively Mourinho is skilled at setting his team up for big one-off games and looks to nullify the opposition’s strengths first, so here that means attention on Hazard first and foremost. In a season where they finished the season second in the Premier League they rarely set pulses racing.
The case for Manchester United is reflected in outright prices for the game. United are 7/4 favourites, Chelsea 15/8 underdogs with the draw the outsider in the 1-2-X market at 11/5.
The sides have met four times this season and under 2.5 goals has landed in three of the four times (and seven of nine times since 2014-2015) and the current price for that outcome here is a meagre 8/15. More generally United only conceded 28 goals in the 38 game league season with De Gea behind the back four and Matic in front of it and one goal in their run to the FA Cup final (with Romero in goal).
Chelsea meanwhile, despite their fifth place league finish, only conceded an average of a goal a game and two goals in their FA Cup campaign including going to extra time twice. Chelsea managed just 39 goals in their final 26 Premier League matches, and they failed to score in 9 of those games.
There has to be a more than reasonable chance that this game goes beyond 90 minutes, and in the “to lift the trophy” market prices are United 4/5 Chelsea Evens.
At the prices I think my central expectation would be that the game would go to extra-time in a low scoring affair and the draw at 11/5 with Bet365 is the outright play and for this column Draw/Draw in the half time/full time market provides a bit more juice..
As long as Chelsea win at the end (not something you will often find me saying!)
10 points FA Cup final Half Time/Full Time Draw/Draw 7/2 SkyBet 100/30 Bet365 16/5 William Hill/Betfred
Roy of the Rovers
A dozen English cricketers have been playing in the IPL in the last month with varying degrees of success. Many of these cricketers have played test cricket but in many cases they have made their name in the one day game have moved away from first class cricket rather than look to establish themselves in the Test team.
It might be argued that one such is Jason Roy, who I have been watching since he was a teenager. After Roy, a naturally gifted cricketer for flat tracks and fielding restrictions but without the water-tight technique for the red ball game, had made 180 in the late Australian summer ODIs there were calls for him to be pushed into the Test team. I would argue that he is a limited-overs specialist.
Whether he has the ability to play all forms for England it is now unlikely to be soon. Having been encouraged to sign up for the IPL auction by England, Roy’s next first-class match is likely to be on July 20. That would be his only four-day game before England pick their Test squad for the first Test against India.
What is then frustrating is that for the most part (one blistering innings for the Delhi Daredevils and a few failures apart) Roy has warmed the bench in India for the bottom side in the competition.
One of the big features of English cricket in recent years is how many players had seen their Test ambitions decline through lack of opportunity to make their case in the longer format. Players like Roy, Alex Hales and others are not choosing between limited-overs cricket and Test cricket, they are choosing their international short-format careers over first-class cricket for their counties which more or may often not lead to Test cricket. Aside from the obvious financial reason for doing so in the last four years England have played 50 Tests and 123 one-day internationals and T20 internationals so there are more limited over opportunities available.
Players choose the IPL over the first-class early season domestic cricket which is often played on poor pitches in questionable weather with no guarantee of Test cricket to follow, and and often capricious selection policy to accompany that uncertainty. The upshot is that a lot of promising young England players find themselves specialising on the one day game, and not just for financial reasons.
As England are top of the ODI rankings and after a poor winter are now 5th in the Test rankings it is an easy argument that the Test team itself has suffered from having so many promising cricketers diverted away from first-class cricket as they approach their peak and ready to play all formats for their country.
Perhaps a new national England Test selector picking Jos Buttler for the first Test against Pakistan (and removing a star player from the Rajastan Royals were they to make the IPL play-offs next week) is a welcome sign that the balance might be redressed slightly going forward.
Brodders Football Analysis
Long term profit over more than four years. Following all bets subscribers are winning £22,957.60 (£10 a point, avg bet £150) +ROI 3.46% (correct at 26/04/18)
Sign up here
Bookmaker reviews and advice
Getting the best price available is very important for all those who take their betting seriously.
Please open an account with all those bookmakers on the page on this link that you do not already have an account with using the links provided.
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £39,710.60 All bets have an ROI +3.46%
A £4000 bank (see FAQ re bank-roll requirements) betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £43,710.60 an 993% increase
(correct at 26/04/2018)
The Road to Riches Weekend of 12-13th May
Coming up this weekend
- Football, the last weekend of the Premier League season and the Football League play off semi-finals
- Rugby Union, the European Champions Cup Final Leinster v Racing92 in Bilbao.
- Cricket, the IPL continues.
- F1, the Spanish Grand Prix
- Racing, On the flat at Ascot, Haydock, Lingfield, Nottingham and Thirsk and also over the jumps at Hexham and Warwick.
- Tennis, ATP Madrid Open
- Golf, on the USPGA the Players Championship at TPC Sawgrass.
French Tennis Open Package: Roland Garros 21st May -10th June 2018
Nigel has a long term winning record on the tennis and totally smashed the Australian Open earlier this year winning £1242 to £10 a point stakes with an ROI +58.33%
Full package £50 see here
FIFA 2018 World Cup (14th June-15th July): Included in the Brodders Section
2016 Euro Championships results +£4098.30 +31.43% (to £10 a point) / 2014 World Cup results +£772.30 +11.19% ROI
By signing up to Brodders you will get all his match analysis on the World Cup games with details of all the bets that we have, plus the write ups on any other matches that he does including regular European league games. Subs are £50 a month and there is no contract so you are free to cancel at any time.
On top of that you will get an extensive outright preview and ante-post write up as well (this is written by Richard Prew with input from Brodders and other Betting Emporium experts). You can see Brodders long term record over the last few years and results in full here as well the the graphs below tracking his progress.
Sign up to Brodders and the 2018 FIFA World Cup here
If you are an existing Brodders subscriber you don't need to do (or pay) anything differently. The World Cup is just included for you on the usual links.
MustardBet are back!
Tight margins, no account closures and re-bet as often as you like. If you bet the maximum available which is clearly shown on the screen you can bet again afterwards again and again
Read more: here
Open your account and try them out here
Free tip
Spanish Grand Prix, Sunday 1.10pm, Barcelona
Toto Wolff of Mercedessaid after a topsy-turvy Azerbaijan Grand Prix that he felt this was developing into a classic season. In four races there have been three different winners from three teams with mid-late race twists that have changed the most likely looking result.
Ferrari and Mercedes are separated by only four points at the head of the constructors championship and whilst the battle for that title is not quite a three horse race yet on an individual race basis there is now a much greater “race winner” shortlist than last season and any of the drivers from Mercedes, Ferrari and Red Bull could win.
The bigger picture is that it can be argued now for the first time in four years that the fastest car in the field is Ferrari not Mercedes. Vettel has been on pole for three of the four races. Whilst Mercedes retains an inherent advantage in the “qualifying” modes available to it for single lap pace the fact that Vettel is now able to mix it for pole position on a regular basis begins to remove one of the key advantages Mercedes have had throughout 2014-2017. To win, Ferrari would usually have to come from behind.
Barcelona is a track on which the teams conducted winter testing in poor conditions. Mercedes were quickest the Ferraris struggled on the corners but it looks like that issue has been addressed now.
A closer front end of the grid is being reflected in individual race prices. Hamilton went off odds on for each race (without grid penalties) for over two seasons but for this race he is odds against. Variance is high too, three teams are closely matched and close racing has led to incidents, safety cars and varying strategy calls. If Mercedes doesn’t win the development race over the remainder of the season (and in a period of static regulations we are talking incremental rather than step change improvements) we may be entering a period where Vettel should go off favourite on occasions.
The markets are not there yet, therefore at the prices, Vettel at 5/2 here is attractive.
10 points Sebastian Vettel to win the Spanish Grand Prix 5/2 William Hill/Coral
London calling
A fortnight ago the FA announced that it was considering selling Wembley for around £600m to Shahid Khan of the Jacksonville Jaguars and Fulham FC
For some no amount of cash would be appropriate to transfer the national stadium to a US entrepreneur. Others including the FA are prepared to consider that this will unlock money for the re-generation of grassroots football, albeit at a mooted sale price less than the £757m build cost.
This offer from Khan is the first one received. There is no exclusivity in the sale process so rival offers are a possibility, and with it essentialy an auction process.
As a counterpoint to the stadium cost compared to the suggested sale price the FA has earned income from Club Wembley packages and high ticket prices since the renovation. The FA argues it will release money for its core purpose of improving grassroots football and facilities while continuing to play England matches and FA Cup finals/semi-finals at Wembley.
As for the public playing facilities that the FA pledges will be the beneficiaries of any sale, £600m is a big sum. When the Football Foundation was formed in 2000 to administer the promised investment from the Premier League of 5% of its TV revenues (which it is not making) it commissioned a report. The audit found that the years of under-investment mostly from local authority funding cuts had left poor facilities that would take £2bn to fix. Unlocking £600m tied up in Wembley would make a major difference.
As far as Jacksonville is concerned Khan said it would allow the franchise’s footprint to grow in London and make it more profitable, with the belief that there’s a lot of growth potential for Wembley as an entertainment venue. Also, Wembley is not set up for American football, and Khan could renovate (putting in a sunk turf field underneath the football pitch, adding new locker rooms) to rectify that.
There’s also the possibility that an NFL franchise in London could be shared with a U.S. city. The Jaguars have played one home game per year in London annually since 2013, and are under contract to continue with that through 2025. Is the idea of playing half their schedule in London feasible?
Alternatively it may finally, if the deal goes through, be the precursor to a full London franchise. The current Collective Bargaining Agreement between the players and the NFL runs out in 2020. The new round of TV deals in the US kick into gear in 2022. So the sweet spot could well be 2021 and a London franchise incorporated into a new CBA and add value to the league’s US TV deal negotiations.
Brodders Football Analysis
Long term profit over more than four years. Following all bets subscribers are winning £22,957.60 (£10 a point, avg bet £150) +ROI 3.46% (correct at 26/04/18)
Sign up here
Bookmaker reviews and advice
Getting the best price available is very important for all those who take their betting seriously.
Please open an account with all those bookmakers on the page on this link that you do not already have an account with using the links provided.
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £39,710.60 All bets have an ROI +3.46%
A £4000 bank (see FAQ re bank-roll requirements) betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £43,710.60 an 993% increase
(correct at 26/04/2018)
The Road to Riches 5th-6th May
Coming up this weekend
- Football, Premier League matches and Cardiff and Fulham play final league games with Promotion to the Premier League on offer
- Cricket, the IPL continues.
- Snooker, the conclusion of the World Championships at the Crucible.
- Racing, On the flat the Guineas meeting at Newmarket and also meetings at Doncaster, Goodwood and Thirsk and also over the jumps at Hexham and Uttoxeter.
- Tennis, ATP Opens in Estoril, Istanbul and Munich
- Golf, on the USPGA the Wells Fargo Championship at Quail Hollow.
French Tennis Open Package: Roland Garros 21st May -10th June 2018
Nigel has a long term winning record on the tennis and totally smashed the Australian Open earlier this year winning £1242 to £10 a point stakes with an ROI +58.33%
Full package £50 see here
FIFA 2018 World Cup (14th June-15th July): Included in the Brodders Section
2016 Euro Championships results +£4098.30 +31.43% (to £10 a point) / 2014 World Cup results +£772.30 +11.19% ROI
By signing up to Brodders you will get all his match analysis on the World Cup games with details of all the bets that we have, plus the write ups on any other matches that he does including regular European league games. Subs are £50 a month and there is no contract so you are free to cancel at any time.
On top of that you will get an extensive outright preview and ante-post write up as well (this is written by Richard Prew with input from Brodders and other Betting Emporium experts). You can see Brodders long term record over the last few years and results in full here as well the the graphs below tracking his progress.
Sign up to Brodders and the 2018 FIFA World Cup here
If you are an existing Brodders subscriber you don't need to do (or pay) anything differently. The World Cup is just included for you on the usual links.
MustardBet are back!
Tight margins, no account closures and re-bet as often as you like. If you bet the maximum available which is clearly shown on the screen you can bet again afterwards again and again
Read more: here
Open your account and try them out here
Free tip
Super Rugby Round 12
Saturday 5th May 8.35am Hurricanes v Lions
This column’s ante-post selection for 2018 Super Rugby the Hurricanes are second in the extremely tough New Zealand Conference with 7 wins out of 8 and this weekend host last season’s finalists the Lions, who suffered a surprising 27-22 defeat in Queensland against the Reds last weekend.
Although 6 wins out of 10 games is enough to lead the weakest of the three conferences, the Lions are unlikely to cover +13 here against one of the toughest attacking line ups in the competition
The Hurricanes have scored 267 points in their 8 games, over 120 more than their opponents and have stuck nearly 30 points on each of their three toughest opponents so far the Crusaders, Highlanders and Chiefs in New Zealand conference derbies. They win from nowhere too, such as scoring on the last play of the game to beat the Sharks 38-37 in one of the most exciting games I have seen for many a year
Thinking back to the Hurricanes of yesteryear and what defined them was their unpredictability. They were famously erratic, brilliant one week and then unrecognisable the next.
They had flair but so little graft. Not now. Since Chris Boyd and John Plumtree arrived as coaches in 2015, they have instilled in the players a real work ethic to go with the brilliant skill and finishing ability
The most telling evidence of the strength of the culture the current coaching team have built is the loyalty of the players.
Dane Coles was willing to play in the 2016 Super Rugby final with broken ribs such was his desire to be part of the club's most momentous day.
TJ Perenara and Beauden Barrett have been hunted by clubs across New Zealand and around the world but they were never going to do anything other than sign long term deals to play for the Hurricanes.
Julian Savea had the chance to move on after last year and try to rekindle his career elsewhere. But it didn't take him long to reject the idea and decide that if he was going to win a test recall, the Hurricanes would be the best place from which to try.
What the Hurricanes have also done well is rejuvenate or kick-start a handful of careers and develop players such as Vince Aso, Nagni Laumape and Ben Lam way beyond expectation.
Lam has been a revelation.Shifting to Wellington from the Blues has transformed him into a genuine All Blacks contender
Once renowned for their unpredictability, the Hurricanes are now the most stable and consistent club in the competition.
The Hurricanes are now 13/8 favourites for the title, backed at 4/1. Rather than taking -13 at 10/11 (itself a corking bet I think) for this column we will go into the Winning Margin market
8 points Hurricanes to win by 21-30 points 4/1 Betfair/Paddy Power or Labrokes/Coral
Things ain’t what they used to be.
NFL teams are changing the way they construct their rosters. This year for example in the draft just gone the Rams didn’t pick until the third round, using higher draft picks to acquire veteran players in the previous month.
The Rams had learned the hard way that the Draft selection process is high variance. In 2012 they sent the number 2 pick overall to Washington and emerged with eight extra draft picks over three years, including five in the top two rounds. Six years later, only one of those extra players is left on the roster. The problem was that they didn’t have the time to develop their young players thanks to new practice rules established by the 2011 collective bargaining agreement.
As a result a good case can be made that the draft just isn’t as important as it used to be. Time has become is the scarce resource in the NFL.
In the pre-2011 NFL, when teams held 50 plus full-contact practices before the start of the season and salary-cap space was tight, signing expensive free agents and eschewing the draft was the quickest way to miss the playoffs. There was almost no debate across the league that the best method for building a roster was to draft and develop. For many years there was a correlation. More draft picks equalled more change of making the play-offs.
The new CBA has shifted the dynamic, making veterans more valuable and rookies less so. The biggest reason has been the reduction in practice time. Teams used to hold full-contact practices in the offseason, two-a-days during training camp, and had no limitations on full-contact practices during the regular season. Under the new CBA, spring practices are strictly regulated with no contact, no pads, and only four hours per day at the facility. Two-a-days in training camp have been eliminated, and teams can hold only 14 padded practices throughout the entire regular season.
These restrictions are great for the players’ health and safety, but terrible for developing young players especially those that play in college offenses that don’t translate to the NFL.
The Rams ran a study, and concluded that it now takes players about three years to have the same amount of practice time they would have got in one year under the old CBA. Young players usually get a couple of years to prove themselves, but if they don’t make immediate contributions, teams move on quickly.
The other big change in today’s NFL is that the league is awash in salary-cap space. The cap has consistently risen by $10-$12m each year, from $123m in 2013 to $177.2 million in 2018, thanks to an influx of TV money. Also the new CBA allows teams to roll over any unused cap space to the next year (the Browns rolled over $58.9m this year). The 49ers entered the offseason with more than $100m in cap space, while 20 teams had $20m in space, and 12 teams had $40m.
So adding veterans isn’t as cost-prohibitive as it used to be. The Eagles just won the Super Bowl with free agents Alshon Jeffery, LeGarrette Blount, Chris Long, Timmy Jernigan, and Torrey Smith all playing crucial roles.
There have been 24 trades this calendar year, compared with 10 at the same date I 2017, and 4 in 2016.
The draft may not be as important as it used to be, but it still carries plenty of weight. But whereas draft picks used to be counted on to be the cornerstone of a team, now they are viewed more as low-cost and fill-the-gap type players. The new CBA instituted a new rookie wage scale that has made most rookies tremendous value locked in at below-market rates for four seasons.
With teams awash in cap space, and young players not getting the coaching and development that they need, the importance of the draft just isn’t what it used to be.
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