Weekly Articles "Road to Riches" by Rich 'Tighty' Prew
The Road to Riches Weekend of 27th-28th April
Coming up this weekend
- Football, Premier League fixtures include Manchester United v Arsenal.
- Cricket, the IPL continues.
- Snooker, the middle weekend of the World Championships at the Crucible.
- Racing, Bet365 Gold Cup Day at Sandown. On the flat at Doncaster, Haydock, Leicester and Ripon. All-weather racing at Wolverhampton.
- Tennis, ATP Barcelona and Budapest
- Golf, on the USPGA the Zurich Classic of New Orleans at TPC Louisiana and on the European Tour the Volvo China Open.
French Tennis Open Package: Roland Garros 21st May -10th June 2018
Nigel has a long term winning record on the tennis and totally smashed the Australian Open earlier this year winning £1242 to £10 a point stakes with an ROI +58.33%
Full package £50 see here
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The Bet365 Gold Cup at Sandown by Neil Channing
The Whitbread, (as I shall definitely continue to call it until Denise agrees to meet me and comply with all demands), is a brilliant race for those of us that love an each-way bet and who can get 1/4 1234 terms. If you can get the 1/4 12345 with Bet365 then you are probably having a really good bet whichever horse you pick.
The presence of Blaklion in the field, carrying close to twelve stone means that we have three horses down the bottom out of the handicap. With all the rain they had Friday morning and at the start of racing on Friday plus the rain expected Friday night I can see the ground getting properly soft and I don't fancy betting anything woth a really big weight over this marathon trip. I decided to simply look at the horses that are in the handicap, racing off their "correct" mark, and also to not go for anything with eleven stone or more. That might easily mean I have elimintaed the winner but I'll take that risk and leave myself with "just" the odd thirteen tochoose from. I then ruled out a few that aren't keen on all this rain and that meant I eliminated Present Man, Benbens, Carole's Destrier, Sugar Baron and Relentless Dreamer. I also decided to cross off Domesday Book who has been off more than a year with an injury and who might not relish such a hard race on his return, Missed Approach who is up a fair bit in the weights and who won't get such an easy time up front as he did at Cheltenham and Rathlin Rose as I'm sick of betting David Pipe horses each-way in big handicaps and watching them run no race. I left myself with five possibles which I'll go through one by one...
Welcome, T16.4?
The England and Wales Cricket Board wants to introduce an innovative '100 balls' format into its new eight-team, city-based tournament.
The concept could see innings consist of 15 traditional six-ball overs, and a final 10-ball over, 20 balls shorter than traditional T20 matches.
Those devising the competition believe a 100-ball 'countdown' would attract new audiences (specifically, “Mums and Kids”) and be popular with broadcasters.
Southampton, Birmingham, Leeds, London, Manchester, Cardiff and Nottingham have been selected as venues for the five-week competition, which starts in 2020.
Both Lord's and The Oval will host newly-created teams in the competition with the Ageas Bowl, Edgbaston, Headingley, Old Trafford, the Swalec Stadium and Trent Bridge the other grounds chosen.
The BBC and Sky Sports will broadcast live TV coverage of the new men's and women's domestic tournament each summer from 2020 to 2024.
The new competition will take place alongside the existing T20 Blast which is expected to be unaffected by the proposed format changes.
The ECB believes the concept will help to appeal to families and a more diverse and younger audience, and provide some distinction from the T20 Blast.
When I heard the news I wasn’t sure where to start. Admittedly I am a fan of test cricket and longer formats and so not the (new) target audience the format is aimed at, but then again most current watchers of cricket don’t seem to be either. I came back to an essential point:
There is nothing wrong with T20! Whether at the IPL, the Big Bash or a variety of other competitions including our T20 Blast, which the ECB now describes as “popular” rather than “mediocre”, the format is established.
T20 works because it is a simple shortening of the game to fit in with the lifestyles of greater number of people than Test cricket allows
Will this gimmicky imitation really attract a new audience? A presence on terrestrial TV will help but trends such as participation in schools and competition from other leisure activities aren’t likely to reverse.
The likelihood is that the new format is driven by broadcasters, with the BBC needing games wrapped up by 9pm so schedules aren’t disrupted.
Ten counties, those not chosen to host T16.4 (awaiting the marketing title, journalists have dubbed it “The Hundred”) are already marginalised, bought off by a £1.3m per annum payment for signing up not hosting.
Some of the counties with Test grounds need the competition to be a success to help them financially. The real problem is that another short format will hasten the decline of longer forms domestically. In 2020 there would be no four day cricket in June and August with the Championship shoehorned into April-May and September with worse weather, green early season or tired end of season pitches and little or no relevance to Test cricket, for which we hope to produce players and currently struggle to do.
One county chief executive said this week “There is no future in this format unless the IPL and BBL adopt it and they won’t. BBC2 are perhaps hoping this will become Celebrity Big Batting”
Even accepting a personal position as a traditionalist, this just feels like an idea too far. It’s a commercial gamble, no more no less.
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The Road to Riches Weekend of 21st-22nd April
Coming up this weekend
- Football, The FA Cup Semi Finals and a reduced programme of Premier League fixtures.
- Rugby Union, the European Champions Cup Semi Finals
- Cricket, the IPL continues.
- Snooker, the start of the World Championships at the Crucible.
- Racing, On the flat at Newbury, Nottingham and Thirsk and also over the jumps at Ayr and Bangor. All-weather racing at Wolverhampton.
- Tennis, ATP Monte Carlo Masters and the Fed Cup semi-Finals
- Golf, on the USPGA the Valero Texas Open in San Antonio.
Next week : the NFL Draft
Free write up this weekend with a range of individual markets discussed
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World Snooker Championship Betting Preview
The Championship starts at the Crucible this weekend
Mark Selby is the defending Champion and comes to the tournament with a win in the last ranking event before the worlds, the China Open. This follows a mixed season but he does tend to peak for the end of the season. He is not the favourite for the title, that’s Ronnie O’Sullivan. The five time world champion has five ranking event wins and another two finals this season.
The draw for the event, awaiting the 16 qualifiers but with the seedings in place looks quite lopsided. The top half of the draw is very tough and the top quarter especially which contains Selby, Murphy, Allen and Kyren Wilson. In the second quarter Higgins and Trump are scheduled to meet in the quarter finals
The bottom half looks more open from a betting perspective. Ding and Hawkins are the top seeds in the third quarter while in the bottom quarter Ronnie has Mark Williams and Neil Robertson.
Outright prices at the top end of the market are
O’Sullivan 2/1
Selby 4/1
Trump 8/1
Higgins 12/1
Ding 14/1
As last year, I have found myself watching some of qualifying on grainy live streams aware that the change to the structure of qualifying gives opportunities in the first round at the Crucible stuff
Firstly, the standard between the best qualifers and the bottom half of the top sixteen seeds is closer than it has been for some time. Just to take one example Ryan Day from outside the 16 has won three ranking events this year and the depth in the player base is greater as young players break through.
Secondly whether you rank 17th or 120th, you have to play three matches in qualifying (unlike the prior system where players ranked 17-32 got a bye to the final round). The result is that each of the sixteen qualifiers is battle hardened through three long form matches that only concluded Wednesday, with the tournament starting tomorrow. There is definitely a chance of catching a seed, most of whom haven’t been in competitive action for nearly three weeks, cold
Last year this column successfully picked Xiao Guodong to upset a seed. Overall four qualifiers won their first match at the crucible, and seven the year before the first under the new qualifying system.
This year I had a shortlist of qualifiers awaiting the draw as follows:
Ryan Day – provisionally ranked 13, three tournament wins, a semi and four quarter finals this season, much improved and beat Ebdon to qualify which takes patience
Stephen Maguire. A few temperament issues, but essentially a top 16 player in ability with two semi finals this season including the UK.
Joe Perry, a former top 16 player who is experienced and is one big result away from getting back in after four quarter finals this season.
Xiao Guodong. One of the more reliable Chinese players outside the top two, three quarter finals this season. Lost 8 frames only in three qualifying matches, mirroring his performance before he won in the first round at the Crucible last year.
Jack Lisowski, off the back of a break-through season with a semi final and two quarter-finals and crushing McManus 10-2 in the final round.
Liam Highfield, a debutant at the crucible is a negative but I like what I see when he has appeared on our screens
I also had a shortlist of seeds that I considered vulnerable:
Marco Fu, missed much of the season following eye surgery in December and provisionally outside the 16 now and can’t be match sharp.
Luca Brecel, fantastic natural talent and a ranking event winning back in October in China that put him in the sixteen. Form has tailed off dramatically since, hasn’t been beyond the third round in seven tournaments in this calendar year.
Ali Carter, not much form having not been beyond the third round in his last 8 ranking tournaments.
Anthony McGill who lost in the first round last year and lost in the first round in China recently, albeit in a best of 11.
Mark Allen who won the 16 runner Masters in January beating a sick Ronnie along the way but has been beyond the first round twice since (focus and concentration issues the times I have seen him) and is outside the provisional top 16
I then watched the draw to see if any from these two lists matched up, and then off to check match odds to see if there is value.
Perry drew Selby, Xiao drew Ding and Maguire drew Ronnie. Off the shortlist.
Lisowski drew Bingham, two months back from his ban but in good nick, successive quarter finals recently. Tempting, but at only 6/5 I will leave it
That leaves Highfield who drew Allen and Day who drew McGill
Day has been installed as 4/5 favourite to beat McGill so for a free column looking for slightly more than putting an odds on shot up, a sporting alternative is Highfield.
The match sessions are 10am Sunday and Monday. This is perhaps a bit unbecoming, but Allen has always struck me as a man for whom the prospect of doing anything before midday was a little taxing. However lets ignore that.
10 points Liam Highfield to beat Mark Allen at 3/1 Sportingbet, Betfair Sportsbook, 3.84 Matchbook
It's a new Dawn,it's a new Day...
F1’s owner Liberty Media has unveiled its five-point plan outlining its vision of F1 for 2021. The sums spent by the top three F1 teams last year on developing their cars were were $380m Ferrari $360m Mercedes and $300m Red Bull. The headline point of the plan is that by 2012 spending will be limited to $150m in an attempt to level the playing field.
Liberty’s blueprint is a distillation of concepts that have previously been aired by Ross Brawn, F1’s sporting director. The key points also include cheaper, louder and simpler engines, that will be more attractive to new manufacturers and a proposal for revenue distribution to be more balanced, based on performance, and including a recognition of historical franchises and value – a reference to additional payments to teams such as Ferrari, Mercedes and Red Bull, above their share of performance revenue.
There is also an intention to have cars better suited to race one another, making the driver the predominant factor and maintaining the unique design while standardising parts that are not relevant to fans.
Christian Horner of Red Bull, who has long been critical of the rules as they stand, was broadly optimistic.
“The positive thing is they are focused on the fans. On creating a better show, a more affordable F1. The big question is the devil in the detail. They have put big issues up but how is it going to be delivered?”
Ferrari and Mercedes have previously expressed disquiet about the proposed changes with the former threatening to leave and the task now facing Liberty is reaching agreement with them.
Toto Wolff, the Mercedes team principal was cautious about the proposed cost cap. “We need to work with Liberty and find a compromise, that number will not be achievable but we are all in the same financial reality. You need to ask how you can achieve a sustainable business model without having any hardship on anybody.”
The teams below them on the grid, for whom this represents a chance to close what has become a vast gap to the top three, were unsurprisingly positive. Claire Williams, the Williams deputy team principal, was enthusiastic. “Everything they presented from revenue redistribution to cost cap is absolutely everything we want to see from 2021 and beyond,”
McLaren’s executive director, Zak Brown said “We all recognise the sport is not where it needs to be today, so it’s in our collective interest to improve the show.”
Brawn has described the current regulations as a deterrent to new teams and his plans met with approval from Andy Palmer, the head of Aston Martin. “These prospective changes support many of the requirements needed for Aston Martin to enter the sport as an engine supplier. This is a very positive step in the right direction.”
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Please open an account with all those bookmakers on the page on this link that you do not already have an account with using the links provided.
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The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning £39,253.60 . All bets have an ROI +3.49%
A £4000 bank (see FAQ re bank-roll requirements) betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £43,253.60 an 981% increase
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The Road to Riches Weekend of 14th-15th April
Coming up this weekend
- Football, Premier League fixtures include Tottenham v Manchester City
- Formula One, the Chinese Grand Prix
- Cricket, the IPL continues and the start of the Specsavers County Championship.
- Racing, the Grand National at Aintree (see package details below) also over the jumps at Chepstow and Newcastle. All-weather racing at Lingfield and Wolverhampton.
- Tennis, ATP US Mens Clay Court Championships in Houston and ATP Morocco
- Golf, on the USPGA the RBC Heritage at Harbour Town links.
- Commonwealth Games, the Athletics programme concludes.
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Aintree Grand National Festival (Full Package) Thurs 12th - Sat 14th April 2018 - by Neil Channing |
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County Championship Division Two 2018 Preview
The domestic cricket season is upon us. Last year the column sought to exploit an anomaly in the structure of division two and for much of the season Notts, a first division side down a division for the season, were running away with the title. They then lost at home to eventual winners Worcs at the beginning of September and finished second.
A reminder of why the structure of the divisional structure leads to some anomalies in markets:
At the end of 2016 The Specsavers County Championship underwent significant changes to its structure with the total matches played by each team dropping from 16 to 14. There are now eight teams in the top flight and 10 in Division Two. Division One therefore follows a standard home-and-away league structure with every team playing the other seven twice for a total of 14.
However, in Division Two each team will play five teams twice and four teams only once to reach the total of 14. The points system: 16 points for a win, eight for a tie and five for a draw. Up to eight bonus points are available in the first 110 overs of each first innings, with batting points up to a maximum of five awarded, one for every 50 runs from 200 upwards, and bowling points awarded for three, six and nine wickets.
In betting terms I tend to bypass Division One, eight competitive teams, all well funded up to the salary cap for playing staffs, many at Test grounds which allows them to spend as allowed. Such was its competitive nature that the 2016 champions Middlesex and also perennial contenders Warwickshire were relegated last year.
With much of the season concertina’d into April/May and September variance is high, in individual results and weather affecting games.
Division Two is less competitive. The market for the ten teams is 16-1 bar the top five. Each way terms of 1/5 1,2,3 are available. Teams such as Leicestershire, Derbyshire, Gloucestershire, Glamorgan are unlikely challengers as the financial disparities between the counties are stark. This plays in terms of squad depth, salary cap spending and the recruitment of overseas pros.
In terms of the remaining five teams like last year we have a short priced favourite and the head of the market is as follows
Middlesex 2/1
Warwickshire 5/1
Sussex 11/2
Kent 7/1
Northants 9/1
Sussex have Jason Gillespie as their new coach and the exciting Jofra Archer (once back from missing the first five matches whilst at the IPL) to fire down the hill with the sea breeze behind him at Hove. They have exciting young talent but are a squad in transition from the era of Nash, Wright, Magoffin etc and Magoffin in particular will be a big loss with his departure to Worcestershire.
I have this as a decision between Middlesex and Warwickshire, which isn’t a great surprise as the gap in talent and resources division one to two is big, and in an 8 team division one and two down, there are going to be hard luck stories.
Before I wrap up, I note that there isn’t much of a structural angle this year. The fixture list for the “big two”. Both teams play Kent, Sussex and Northants twice. The differential sides are Derbyshire and Gloucestershire (Middlesex play both twice, Warwickshire don’t) and Glamorgan/Durham (Warwickshire play both twice, Middlesex don’t)
Middlesex and Warwickshire play once, at Lords. Advantage Middlesex but what might not be advantage Middlesex is international calls (Morgan, Roland Jones, Malan) with Warwickshire only likely to lose Woakes. Both teams are talented but the value here at 5/1 compared to 15/8 is Warwickshire.
Much head-scratching has gone into what went so spectacularly wrong for the Bears in four-day cricket in 2017. There were several factors, including an ageing team, a collective collapse in confidence and a failure to press home winning positions when they built them. But in Division Two a top order including Ian Bell and Jonathan Trott plus a lot of young talent notably Sam Hain should be strong enough to supply plenty more winning positions for the bowlers to exploit more ruthlessly.
In that bowling attack captain and overseas player Jeetan Patel is available all season and in Olly Stone they have an England player of the future. Last year Worcs needed to win 10 games to take the division, Northants won nine games and didn’t go up so taking 20 wickets is a key in a format where a lot of draws are prevalent.
Middlesex could well win it, but the market has that factored in. I have a thought towards Northants, who could contend and look stronger than the side that finished 3rd last year but 9/1 factors that in to an extent, a year ago we could have goneclose with them at 16-1+.
I am going to back Warwickshire each way at 5/1, tuck it away for the summer with the backstop that Even money the top three is solid as a rock, I think.
10 points each way Each way Warwickshire to win County Championship Division Two 5/1 (1/5 1,2,3) WilliamHill, Ladbrokes/Coral
All In!
Last week in the latest of a series of high profile trades the LA Rams acquired Patriots receiver Brandin Cooks in exchange for their first round draft pick. This followed trades for top cornerbacks Marcus Peters and Aqib Talib and star defensive tackle Ndamokung Suh.
The Rams are going “all in” this season to win the Super Bowl. GM Les Snead and head coach Sean McVay are following a roster building strategy that has become more prevalent in the NFL in recent years for two reasons. Firstly draft picks are increasingly seen as an overvalued commodity in a scouting industry where the success rate of picks is mixed and this has led to different trading approaches where trades are both more frequent and high draft picks are more often part of those transactions. Secondly spending aggressively is seen to maximise the small championship window a good quarterback on a cheap rookie contract can create.
The Seahawks did it in 2013, when Russell Wilson’s $500,000 salary gave the team the chance to acquire defensive players who became key to their eventual Super Bowl run. The Eagles did it last year, utilising their cap space and Carson Wentz’s rookie deal to sign receivers Alshon Jeffery and Torrey Smith, running back LeGarrette Blount, nickel corner Patrick Robinson, and pass rusher Chris Long and later to trade for defensive tackle Timmy Jernigan and running back Jay Ajayi. Also it wouldn’t have been feasible to pay $7 million plus to Nick Foles, who became the Super Bowl MVP, had Wentz been making the current going rate for a top half of the league Quarterback on his09 second contract.
Jared Goff is set to count just $7.6m against the cap next season, in the third year of his rookie deal, compared to L.A.’s divisional rival quarterbacksRussell Wilson will count $23.7 million against the Seahawks’ cap, and the newly-extended Jimmy Garoppolo will account for $37 million of San Francisco’s cap. Goff’s contract represents a huge competitive advantage over other potential contenders outside the division with Matt Stafford ($26.5 million), Kirk Cousins ($25 million), Drew Brees ($24 million), Ben Roethlisberger ($23.2 million), Tom Brady ($22 million), Philip Rivers ($22 million), Matt Ryan ($21.6 million), Cam Newton ($21.5 million), and Aaron Rodgers ($20.5 million) all set to cost roughly triple Goff’s hit. Goff just needs to keep progressing towards “franchise quarterback” status
That discount at the quarterback position is a big reason the Rams had over $45m to spend as free-agency started giving them the flexibility to use the franchise tag on safety Lamarcus Joyner at $11.2 million, take on Aqib Talib’s $11 million contract, give Ndamukong Suh a one-year, $14 million deal and acquire Cooks’ $8.5 million deal. That influx of talent makes a Rams team that won 11 games and the NFC West last year look like one of the clear favourites in the conference in 2018.
However every one of the Rams’ new additions carries risk (and is of course why such elite players could be traded in the first place) Peters is a problem in terms of locker room chemistry and maturity. Talib has had disciplinary problems too. Meanwhile, Suh has a reputation for dirty hits. Plus, unless the team signs Aaron Donald to a long-term extension before the season starts, Suh’s eight-figure salary could create some friction with the defending defensive player of the year. Donald unsuccessfully held out to try to get a new contract last autumn. As for Cooks, he stretches the field but that was the plan for Sammy Watkins last year and he primarily ended being utilised as a decoy to clear space for shorter passes to Robert Woods and Cooper Kupp.
The upside of all these moves is that the major boost in overall talent gives the Rams the chance to maintain their progress. They’ve put together what could be the best secondary in the league and paired two dominant defensive tackles in Suh and Donald. By adding Cooks they’ve given last year’s top scoring offense the potential to get even better.
Long term, the loss of draft picks could create roster depth issues in a few years time and the Rams’ first pick in this year’s draft is a third-rounder. There are concerns over the team’s upcoming big pay days. Joyner, Cooks, Donald, Suh, Peters, Talib, Goff, and Todd Gurley will all be due for new contracts over the next two years, however L.A. has very few big-money commitments going out past next year, with left tackle Andrew Whitworth and defensive tackle Michael Brockers the only two players set to count more than $10m against the cap in 2019 in 2019.
Most importantly, though, is that outside of New England, so-called Super Bowl windows are short-lived. In a league that’s constructed to push teams back to 8-8 through the salary cap, schedule format and draft order, it’s difficult for any teamclub to get all its stars aligned in the form of a good quarterback, talented offensive stars, and a top-tier defense. That’s what makes that four- or five-year period when a team has a quarterback on a rookie contract such a crucial time to act. Once that window’s gone, teams are forced to rebuild.
The Rams are paying a premium up front for proven talent and production skipping past the learning curve the draft-and-development brings and giving themselves what they think is their best shot at a Lombardi Trophy before Goff gets paid.
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Please open an account with all those bookmakers on the page on this link that you do not already have an account with using the links provided.
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning £39,253.60 . All bets have an ROI +3.49%
A £4000 bank (see FAQ re bank-roll requirements) betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £43,253.60 an 981% increase
(correct at 03/04/2018)
The Road to Riches 5th-8th April
Coming up this weekend
- Football, Premier League fixtures include Manchester United v Manchester City and Everton v Liverpool
- Formula One, the Bahrain Grand Prix
- Cricket, the start of the IPL.
- Racing, Over the jumps at Kelso, Stratford and Uttoxeter on the flat at Kempton. All-weather racing at Wolverhampton.
- Tennis, Davis Cup World Group Quarter-Finals
- Golf, the Masters at Augusta.
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Aintree Grand National Festival (Full Package) Thurs 12th - Sat 14th April 2018 - by Neil Channing |
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The 2018 Masters
As a complement to Neil’s work, a look at the Masters but not seeking to focus on the head of the market where all the attention is. So we all know that Tiger is on the way back, that Bubba has been backed from 50/1 into 16/1, that Justin Thomas has been firing all season (4 wins in 1his last 14 starts) and is on the verge of world number one and in general terms there is a big split in the betting market big names/top of the world rankings to the rest with the top 15 33-1 or shorter.
In terms of the event we know what sort of criteria we are looking for:
- It’s tough to win as a debutant.
Fuzzy Zoeller,1979 (pub quiz staple answer), and that's it
- Good form
Since 2011 form players that season have won the Masters
- Sergio Garcia 2017 pre-masters 1 win, 1 Top 10
- Danny Willett 2016 pre-Masters: 1 Win, 1 Top 10
- Jordan Spieth 2015: 1 Win, 6 Top 10s
- Bubba Watson 2014: 1 Win, 3 Top 10s
- Adam Scott 2013: 1 Top 10
- Bubba Watson 2012: 3 Top 10s
- Charl Schwartzel 2011: 1 Win, 3 Top 10s.
Specifically a Betfair preview tells me that 8 of the last ten winners have finished in the top thirty in at least one of their two starts before the Masters
- A Long hitter.
Since the course was changed nine years ago every winner has been in the top third in terms of power hitting stats using Distance to Apex (Distance in yards from the Tee to the Apex on Par 4 and Par 5 tee shots) as a proxy.
Augusta is a 7,435 yard Par 72. All fairways are mown towards the tee to minimise run (and it effectively plays around 7,800 yards) so obviously length in the air off the tee is a factor
Making the real difference at Augusta is the ability to reach as many of the par-5s as possible in two shots. Your selection has to be long enough to be competitive.
- Preferably shape it both ways
A number of Augusta's holes are right-to-left doglegs so players who can shape the ball around the corner off the tee will be sought. You’ll hear a lot about being needing to be able to draw the ball to win.
"You don't have to draw the ball as much as people think," said Paul Casey. "You've got to be able to work the ball a bit right to left, but you don't need a big hook. You need a high ball flight, just to land it softly on some of those greens."
Dustin Johnson said: "I think you've got to curve it both ways. I don't think it's imperative to have a draw. You have to have every aspect of your game on here, control of spin, distance control, trajectory”.
- Short game
Putting well is an advantage though the stats suggest its not the huge advantage previously thought, the greens (unless the course comes up soft after bad weather) will be fast though. Scrambling well is a huge asset too.
Other tenets that I regard as “just one of those things” are the poor record of world number ones at Augusta, and the rarity of defending a title. It’s the factors above that help me form a short-list.
I was researching away and wanted to revisit a player we have backed in this column for majors before:
This player is ranked 16th in the OWGR but is outside the top 20 in the betting and has:
- Six top twenty and four top ten finishes in majors (Tied 4th in the Masters in 2013 and losing in the play-off at the 2015 St Andrews Open included) including as recently at the Open last year (T6) and the PGA (T13).
- He has four top ten finishes this year in ten events and tied seventh in the Arnold Palmer Invitational two starts ago, also finishing T7 at the Tournament of Champions and T8 at Torrey Pines. Has only one missed cut.
- Top 15% (ranked 30th out of 213) in Driving distance to Apex year to date on the US Tour.
There are some 10 places around the industry as you probably have heard, albeit at the expense of an inflated over-round and skinnier place terms and whilst all the extra places are important here for this particular player we can get 8 places 1/5 at 60/1 with Bet365 but are asked to take 45 or 40-1 for ten places with Skybet or Coral.
I think Marc Leishman, in betting terms, flies under the radar quite consistently and is reasonably unfashionable which I like. Top 15 in two majors last year. We could do with his putter getting a bit hotter, compared to last year it hasn’t been but he is the sort of player who does hit streaks and when not “on” finishes there or thereabouts a lot.
5 points each way Marc Leishman 2018 Masters 60/1 Bet365 (1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8) 60/1 Sportingbet and Betfred (1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6)
A proper sporting scandal
As we all know The Australian cricket team is currently caught up in an embarrassing cricket scandal. Three players on the team have been suspended for 9-12 months, including the captain and vice-captain after being caught cheating in a Test match in South Africa. The coach, though exonerated from involvement, has subsequently resigned too.
I wanted to write about possible betting angles in the light of the incident, but that’s probably too early but also about the background to why Cricket Australia acted as it did in what most would now agree was administering quite a draconian punishment.
Australia (alongside India and England) is one of the “big three” power brokers in the global game and it is in because of that position that some of what has followed the event has taken a different path than might otherwise have been the case.
In the third test, the Aussies were in a losing position with a first innings deficit and, with the shine from the new ball now past, having trouble getting any of the South African batsmen out. During lunch, Australian captain Steve Smith and specifically vice-captain David Warner hatched a plan to tamper with the ball. Junior player Cameron Bancroft is in the vicinity and is drawn into the conversation. The trio decide to get some sandpaper from a kit bag and are looking to get some dirt on it with the hopes of being able to scuff up one side of the ball. The aim of this is to get the ball to reverse swing, behaving unpredictably and thus increase the possibility of a false shot from the batsman.
Bancroft puts the sandpaper in his trousers and when the opportunity presents itself, he gets some dirt to put on it. He then uses it to scuff up the. The plan goes awry when cameras capture him doing this and when the on-field umpires are informed by the third umpire who is watching this on the TV, they come to ask questions, and shoves the offending item down the front of his trousers. Bancroft shows the officials a sunglasses bag in his pocket as cover. His cover is quickly blown when the cameras also capture the cover-up.
Smith and Bancroft admit wrong-doing at the end of the day’s play. Cricket Australia chief executive James Sutherland was forced to fly to South Africa to clear up the situation. The ICC initially imposed a one match sanction on the players in line with its code of conduct but to Cricket Australia’s credit they soon introduced harsher punishments.
That they did so reflects the importance of cricket to the Australian population. It is commonly said in Australia that the captain of the national cricket team is the second most important job in the land. The role goes beyond sport; it bequeaths a certain moral authority, too. In the last 30 years, three Australian captains have won the Australian of the year award!
“This is a shocking disappointment. It’s wrong,” said Australia’s prime minister, who noted that cricket stars were held in higher regard than politicians. “Our cricketers are role models and cricket is synonymous with fair play. How can our team be engaged in cheating like this? It beggars belief.” All one can say to that high-horsery is, he can’t have been watching this Australian team much recently!
What then happened was that Smith/Warner/Bancroft got caught up in an unstoppable whirlwind of media sensationalism and lack of popularity in the world of cricket. As a result the punishments are disproportionate.
Cheating is a problem in many sports and in my view an instance of ball tampering, albeit blatant and pre-meditated with the lies that followed, is not on the same level as spot fixing or doping but the one year punishments in which the three players are limited to playing club cricket should be a powerful deterrent and are draconian but reflect Australia’s perception of the importance of their cricket team, the stunned reaction of sponsors and broadcasters and Australia’s self-perceived position as a moral arbiter of the game no matter the toxic behaviour of its players in many a series in recent years. Winning, as they were doing consistently, tends to allow such behaviour to be tolerated.
In addition Smith and Warner, two of the sports highest profile stars, have been sacked from their IPL franchises for the competition due to start in a week and their loss of earnings is projected as between $3-5m each over the time frame of their ban.
Fair play to Bancroft and Smith for tackling their mistakes head on in press conferences, which were a difficult and emotional watch. Being able to own up and take responsibility takes fortitude and hopefully there is a way back for both post ban. For Warner, the agitator of the whole mess, the way back is far less certain. Warner’s failure in his press conference to answer specific questions about whether it was a one-off episode or whether more than three players were involved keeps flaming the fires of suspicion.
From a results and betting perspective the importance of Smith and Warner to Australia’s test team cannot be overstated. Since the start of 2014 they have scored 37% of Australia’s runs in test cricket comfortably the highest proportion by the top to run scorers in any test team over this time span. Smith’s average for Australia of over 60 is second all-time to only Bradman.
2-1 down in Johannesburg and without these key players Australia went off 5/2 and South Africa 4/7 so markets factored in Australia’s weaker prospects quickly as you would expect.
In more general terms, perhaps if this is a deterrent to underhand practice in the international game, and reverse swing becomes less likely (let us assume that many teams practice the dark arts to some extent!) then batting totals will be higher, teams will be harder to dismiss and there might be more draws in test cricket, but it is probably too early to draw that conclusion, but worth watching.
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The Road to Riches Weekend of 31st March-1st April
Coming up this weekend
- Football, Premier League fixtures include Chelsea v Tottenham Hotspur
- Rugby Union, the European Champions Cup Quarter finals.
- Cricket, the second Test between New Zealand and England in Christchurch.
- Racing, Over the jumps at Carlisle, Haydock and Newton Abbot and on the flat at Kempton and Musselburgh. All-weather racing at Chelmsford City.
- Tennis, ATP Miami Open
- Golf, the Houston Open on the USPGA.
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Aintree Grand National Festival (Full Package) Thurs 12th - Sat 14th April 2018 - by Neil Channing |
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Free tip
European Champions Cup Quarter Final Rugby Leinster v Saracens Sunday 1st April 3.30pm
Saracens are double defending champions whilst Leinster go into the knockout stages as top seeds, a team containing the core of Irish national side supplemented Academy talent such as Larmour and Byrne.
A key to this game will come in player workload and freshness. For while Leinster’s key players rested after the grand slam win Saracens English contingent, minus Farrell, were pressed back into Aviva action game v Quins last weekend and a week later they have to front up at the Aviva Stadium against one of the top sides in this year’s competition, it’s a tough prospect.
Leinster recordedonly their fourth defeat (32-18) of the season in all competitions against Ospreys at the Liberty Stadium last weekend but rested Sexton, Garry Ringrose, Tadhg Furlong and others.
In an interview this week carried in the Telegraph Sexton said
“I think we've got a great system here. I've been on the other side of the fence [with Racing 92 in France's Top 14] and it can be tough when you are trying to do your best for club and country because you're never going to say no. I remember playing for Racing in the middle of a Six Nations when we were going for a Grand Slam and I had to go and play a game in between those international games. In an ideal world you don't have to play those games. Where we really get looked after is during pre-season and leading up to World Cups and stuff. We are very well looked after.”
This season there has been a shift in the balance of power in the ERCC with only one English team in the Quarter finals and three from the Pro 14 plus the usual strong French contingent.
Leinster won 6 of 6 in a pool containing Aviva champions Exeter, Glasgow and Montpellier and are top of Pro 14 conference ahead of fellow European QF Scarlets. Saracens crept into the quarters as one of the three best runners up, in an indifferent season by their standards where they have lost 6 Aviva premiership games where their squad has been regularly injury hit.
What Saracens have in their favour, and will probably help them keep the match close is that they are streetwise with huge experience in knockout rugby and big game players but have to overcome fatigue and Leinster’s home advantage which is considerable. Leinster are 4/11 outright and -6. The bet I like is
8 points Leinster to win by 1-12 points 13/8 Skybet 6/4 Betfred,Sportingbet
Rest!
Pre-tournament the expectation was that the Six Nations final weekend would see a head to head between England and Ireland for the Championship. What transpired was a one sided game with Ireland winning the Grand Slam and England losing their third game in a row and finishing fifth in the Championship.
England looked knackered; devoid of energy and impetus, with Ireland dominating collisions but why did England look so lethargic? Explanations have ranged from England’s representation on the 2017 Lions tour to the introduction of those Lions players back in to domestic rugby and the amount of match time the players have contributed in the season to date to “over-training” under Eddie Jones.
Asked if there is a case for the England players who went on the Lions tour missing the upcoming Springboks series, Toby Flood told Omnisport: "Yes, but I think there is also a case for talking about how hard England train. They talk about how they train faster, quicker and harder than they would want to do and experience in a Test match scenario. That is serious training, Test match rugby is as hard as it gets and if there is bits and pieces coming out with players saying they have had the hardest session in their career towards the back end of the Six Nations....you've got to be sensible.”
In terms of the Lions Tour although there was a large spread in the number of minutes played by each player across the tour there was no real bias towards players in a specific nation with the playing load fairly evenly spread across England, Ireland and Wales.
The final Lions test was on the 8th July. The Pro14 and Aviva Premiership domestic seasons started on the first weekend of September. In simple terms the Irish players had the longest “rest period” between the end of the Lions tour and their return to domestic rugby.
Maro Itoje returned for Saracens on the opening day of the season and played the full 80 minutes for the first 4 games of the season, while Owen Farrell, who had played every minute of the 3 Lions tests, returned a week later. By comparison, the likes of Conor Murray, Johnny Sexton and Tadhg Furlong returned to action around the end of September.
This means that Owen Farrell’s season was nearly 3 weeks longer than Johnny Sexton’s by the time they met in Twickenham. In 2017-18 Owen Farrell has played 1200 minutes of rugby, Sexton 600!
Looking at the number of minutes of playing time each player in the match day squad for the England versus Ireland fixture has made during the season the Ireland squad have played an average of 1006 minutes over the season, which equates to 12.6 games. England by comparison have played 1367 minutes on average, or 17.1 games.
So, not only were the key Irish players who went on the Lions tour, getting a longer rest than the English based players, the Irish squad as a whole has also played fewer games over the season to date. The combination of these two factors must have a material impact on a game at the elite level.
The major disparity comes in their appearances in domestic rugby. The Irish match day 23 that played against England had only played an average of 4.8 games in the Pro 14. The England squad had played an average of 8.4 games.
Of course this is related to the structure of the game in the two countries, where Ireland’s players are centrally contracted and England’s top players are contracted by their clubs. The difference in structure of the Irish and England game is summed-up by team selections for last weekend. The likes of Itoje, Robshaw, Launchbury all started for their clubs; Sexton, Murray, Best were among those to be rested by their provinces. For England 17 of the Ireland match 23 started in the league this weekend. Two were benched, four injured and none rested.
This is the conflicted position England's players find themselves in. Something has to give, at some point, doesn't it? England’s top players aren’t chasing the cash because they have to play in the Aviva if they want to play for England. However look at what Farrell has got to do. Saracens have got a Champions Cup quarter-final at Leinster this week then back for the end of the back for the Premiership, off to South Africa, back for a World Cup season, the treadmill is never-ending.
There’s not a game in the Premiership that doesn’t count for something, be it relegation, top six or seven for Europe, top four for the play-offs. The way that salary cap is set means that wages have gone up and teams have had to trim squads, from, 45 to 42 to 41 to 39 this season.
Ultimately this is going to cost England at the 2019 Rugby World Cup, with the structure of the English domestic game (and a fractious relationship between clubs and the RFU) a severe drawback to the prospects of English success. For whilst England’s players trudge from competition to competition the All Blacks for example are operating under the “Irish model”. Between their autumn tour and the start of Super Rugby, their players had 14 weeks off.
There is no sign of change either as there are putative plans to extend the English domestic season to 11 months!
Brodders Football Analysis
Long term profit over more than four years. Following Following all bets subscribers are winning £24,256 (£10 a point, average bet £150) +ROI 3.85% (correct at 28/02/18)
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Bookmaker reviews and advice
Getting the best price available is very important for all those who take their betting seriously.
Please open an account with all those bookmakers on the page on this link that you do not already have an account with using the links provided.
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £44,418.20. All bets have an ROI +4.06%
A £4000 bank (see FAQ re bank-roll requirements) betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £48,418.20 a 1110% increase.
(correct at 28/02/18)
