Weekly Articles "Road to Riches" by Rich 'Tighty' Prew
The Road to Riches Week of 11th-12th August
Coming up this weekend
- Football, the new Premier League season begins
- Racing, On the flat at Ascot, Ayr, Chelmsford City, Haydock, Lingfield, Newmarket and Redcar.
- Cricket the second Test between England and India continues at Lords
- Tennis, ATP Rogers Cup in Toronto.
- Golf, the PGA Championship at Bellerive CC
US Open Tennis (27th Aug - 9th Sep 2018) - by Nigel Seeley
Full package, outrights, match analysis and details of all the bets we are having is £50 see here
York Ebor Meeting (Wed 22nd Aug - Sat 25th Aug 2018) - by Neil Channing
Full write ups of every race giving details of the bets Neil is having, costing £99.99 see here
NFL 2018 – Neil’s Picks
Seventeen weeks of Neil’s NFL write ups for the the 2018 season, starting on Thursday September 6th, costing £100 see here
Free tip
League Division Two Forest Green Rovers v Oldham Athletic Saturday 3pm
Early season football league games, typically betting fayre on which to tread carefully with little in the way of concrete form to go on and often big turn-overs of playing staffs from season to season. One game stood out to me this weekend though between sides that have been heading in different directions in recent seasons.
Forest Green were promoted from the conference a season ago in their third year of play-off appearances and consolidated last season. They are ambitious, the chairman has had three stars put on the playing kit, one is highlighted, signifying promotion into League two. The other two stars, signifying promotion into League One and then the Championship, are blank. Last week they opened the season away at Grimsby and won 4-1 from a goal down. I won’t profess to be closely acquainted with the club or its players beyond a read of the local press and watching the goals on Quest but the ambition stands out.
Oldham were finally relegated from League one last year having finished 15th or lower for the previous eight seasons and this is their first season in the bottom flight since 1971. They opened the season with a home loss, 2-1 to also relegated MK Dons.
New manager their former player Frankie Bunn said in the summer "We are trying to introduce a winning culture again at the club which has been missing for a number of years." Of course the problem he has is common to many sides at this level, he has to do that with free transfers and young players. The crowd for their first home match of the season was 4,700 indicating finance is likely to remain tight
So for this game prices are Forest Green 6/4+, Oldham 19/10 and the Draw 11/5. At the prices Forest Green stood out.
8 points Forest Green Rovers to beat Oldham Athletic 31/20 Ladbrokes, Sportingbet 6/4 Betfred, William Hill
Windows 2018
As week one of the NFL pre-season begins the Arizona Cardinals exist today as a franchise in flux. It wasn't long ago they were the envy of the league.
In 2015 they won 13 regular-season matches, their divisional title, beat the Packers in the play offs and fell to the Panthers in the NFC Conference
Fast-forward to this training camp and many of the stars of that deep run are gone. Quarterback and coach Palmer and Arians have retired. Calais Campbell is a star for the Jags, receiver John Brown is earning rave reviews in Ravens camp and Tyrann Mathieu is a free agent.
Arizona went 15-16-1 over the next two seasons, missing the playoffs each year. Today they are cautionary tale on the fickle nature of The NFL Window (the short period of time a team can contend to win a Superbowl), which many teams contend with due to the nature of the draft and free agency.
They enter this season with a placeholder at quarterback in the injury prone Sam Bradford, a bridge from Carson Palmer to first round draft pick Josh Rosen and a non-quarterback roster that looks to have plenty of holes as free agency and retirements have hit.
What also really set them back was how the 2017 draft turned out. In a radio interview after last year’s draft, then coach Arians said: “We thought last year sitting there [with the No. 13 pick] we were going to have a shot at Deshaun Watson and Patrick Mahomes, I loved both of them.” Both the Chiefs and Texans traded up for their young franchise quarterbacks that year right in front of the Cardinals at No. 13 and both look like future stars.
The league is designed to produce parity and it takes something quite exceptional (Belichek/Brady being the obvious example) to produce a dynasty that produces multi-season success..
The Patriots greatest accomplishment is their unprecedented ability to keep The Window open for nearly two decades, achieved by simultaneously employing the greatest quarterback ever and the best head coach/modern team builder ever.
For the coming season, who is in The Window apart from the Patriots?. The Eagles just won the Superbowl and their roster appears built for an extended run. The Steelers, while not at the Patriots' level, have done well being perennial contenders in the Big Ben era. The Saints and Rams appear well set up. The Jaguars may be at the start of theirs
The most fascinating case, however, might be the Vikings a very deep and talented roster with many major players under control through the end of 2020. They’ve brought in Kirk Cousins as the “final piece” for this season.
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The Road to Riches Weekend of 4th-5th August
Coming up this weekend
- Football, the new Football League season begins
- Racing, On the flat at Chelmsford City, Doncaster, the final day of Glorious Goodwood, Hamilton, Lingfield, Newmarket and Thirsk.
- Cricket the first Test between England and India continues at Edgbaston
- Rugby Union, the Super Rugby final between the Crusaders and the Lions
- Tennis, ATP Citi Open in Washington and ATPs in Mexico and Kitzbuhel.
- Golf, the WGC-Bridgestone Invitational at Firestone CCe.
US Open Tennis (27th Aug - 9th Sep 2018) - by Nigel Seeley
Full package, outrights, match analysis and details of all the bets we are having is £50 see here
York Ebor Meeting (Wed 22nd Aug - Sat 25th Aug 2018) - by Neil Channing
Full write ups of every race giving details of the bets Neil is having, costing £99.99 see here
Free tip
Super Rugby 2018 Final Crusaders v Lions Saturday 4th August 08.35am BST
The Lions from the South African conference and the Crusaders from the New Zealand conference meet in the Super Rugby final in Christchurch on Saturday, these two sides were the top two in the season long league table and this is a repeat of last year’s final in Johannesburg, won by the Crusaders 25-17 playing against 14 men for much of the game.
In their semi final against the Waratahs one of the most impressive things for the Lions was that they were 14-0 down after 10 minutes and then won the next 70 minutes 44-12 running in six tries.
Of course giving probably the best non-international side in the World the Crusaders a two try lead is something entirely different. Working in their favour in the semi was that they used their fitness at altitude. Christchurch is not at altitude so they need to start faster as trying to chase down the Crusaders from behind on the scoreboard is something that no team has managed in 2018
The Crusaders dismantled the Hurricanes 30-12 with a dominating forward performance,suffocating defence and brilliant discipline only giving away four penalties in the game. Fly half Richie Mo-unga has had a sensational season and there is chatter that he may win the 10 shirt ahead of Beauden Barrett for the upcoming Rugby Championship. Understandably enough, at home, the Crusaders are strong favourites to win another title, 1/9 outright and -18 on the handicap
The Lions do have some outstanding performers. For example hooker Malcolm Marx and flanker Kwagga Smith are tremendous but what isn’t in their favour is that international fly-half Elton Jantjes is off form and they will need him to improve to stand a chance.
-18 is a big points handicap especially for a final but the Crusaders are a dominant side at home with an 11-0 record as the head-to-head favourite at AMI Stadium. Looking into this a bit deeper, quarter by quarter at home this season:
Q1 96 points scored, 37 conceded
Q2 93-70
Q3 60-43
Q4 131-29
They start well, and finish strong. These two sides last met back in April, a game the Crusaders won 14-8. Missed tackles and a lack of the ball, especially in their own half, hurt the Lions dearly. On a positive note though, the Lions forced the Crusaders into 11 handling errors and 12 penalties
If this game was played on a neutral ground, you’d give the Lions a big chance, but away in New Zealand, a country the Lions haven’t won in all season, it’s tough to see it happening. I expect the Crusaders to win by 2-3 scores
8 points Crusaders to win the Super Rugby final by 11-20 points 3/1 Betfair Sportsbook and PaddyPower
Ripped
Last week I watched as Jon Rahm pulled a driver out of the bag at the first at Carnoustie and almost casually drove it 400+ yards onto the green. Brooks Koepka managed it twice in his first three holes. Of course a traditional course and firm conditions helped but it brought to mind a quote from a golf architect
"Something has to stop changing, and soon, or we'll no longer recognise the courses and the game we love."
While the top players on tour have been constant with an average of about 315 yards off the tee, the averages of the moderately long hitters on tour have increased substantially: In 1997, the 50th-ranked player averaged 272 yards. By 2002, the distance had risen to 285. In 2012, it was 294 and this year it is over 300 yards. This points to a fundamental shift in the way the game is played at the professional level: the “let it rip” player is becoming the rule, rather than the exception. Shot-making is now a rarity on many courses. The USPGA tour in particular has become a pitch-and-putt exhibition of booming drives and high-lofted approach shots.
A letter published in the Telegraph by a group of golf architects and writers raised the following points: Increased golf ball distance have made safety margins on many golf courses obsolete, necessitating costly course modifications for golfers' safety. Additionally, a golf ball that goes further necessitates longer golf courses, which in turn necessitates an increase in capital investment (labour, materials and water).
The authorities in many cases take to altering classic courses to boost their defences against distance but the first path is usually to make the rough more penal. A second, as at the US Open earlier this summer, was to trick up pin placements and speed up the greens. This approach is easier than taking the radical step of taming development of the ball. Meanwhile Callaway has created a Chrome Soft ball infused with graphene, the world’s strongest and thinnest known material.
For equipment and ball manufacturers in a competitive industry propelling the ball a long way has become an end in itself enabling the biggest hitters to hit the ball further and further. Obviously on top of that advances in training and conditioning are contributing too.
From the 1930s to the mid-Nineties, golf equipment evolved only in minor increments, so that courses needed little adjustment to cope with any kind of tournament. That has been succeeded by exponential technological change. Tiger Woods said earlier this year
“Now, if you want to have a championship venue, the course has to be 7,400-7,800 yards long and if the game keeps progressing the way it is, the 8,000-yarder is not too far away.
Of course there are natural defences, weather being the main one and the length of players these days has brought parts of old courses into play so for example at Carnoustie players were playing a majority of tee shots with irons as to blast away with the driver meant out-hitting fairways and finding oft neglected pot bunkers. On some of the parkland course though players can let it rip, pitch and putt and the spectacle itself is less varied as a result.
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The Road to Riches 28th-29th July
Coming up this weekend
- Racing, On the flat at Ascot, Chester, Lingfield, Newcastle, Newmarket, Salisbury and York.
- Rugby Union, Super Rugby Semi finals
- Formula One, the Hungarian Grand Prix in Budapest
- Tennis, ATP Atlanta, Gstaad and Hamburg Opens.
- Golf, the RBC Canadian Open and the Porsche European Open.
US Open Tennis (27th Aug - 9th Sep 2018) - by Nigel Seeley
Full package, outrights, match analysis and details of all the bets we are having is £50 see here
Goodwood Festival (31st July - 4th August 2018) - by Neil Channing
Full write ups of every race giving details of the bets Neil is having, costing £99.99 see here
York Ebor Meeting (Wed 22nd Aug - Sat 25th Aug 2018) - by Neil Channing
Full write ups of every race giving details of the bets Neil is having, costing £99.99 see here
Free tip
Cricket England v India Test series Preview
India have arrived with arguably their best equipped squad in recent times and we could witness a classic contest in the second half of the cricketing summer
The test schedule is as follows
Aug 1st Edgbaston
Aug 9th Lord's
Aug 18th Trent Bridge
Aug 30th Southampton
Sep 7th Oval
Last time India toured England they were all at sea on green seaming pitches. Four years on they are the number one Test team in the World. India are now a significant challenge for any opposition whether home or away although much of India’s dominance in the format is in home conditions.
India have only won Test series in England three times in their history most recently in 2007 but this time feels different. This is the most well balanced, well drilled, fittest squad that has toured here. They have the perfect balance between youth and experience, and with England’s Test team far from settled, we could be in for a close fought series.
England are odds on to win the series, this feels incorrect given the talent in the teams, the hot weather leading to dry pitches and suiting India’s spinners with whom England have really struggled in the first part of the tour, particularly the leg spinner Kuldeep Yadav.
Sachin Tendulkar was interviewed this week and says he regards Kuldeep as a special talent and ready for Test cricket, his opportunities previously limited by Ashwin and Jadeja
“I have always maintained that he’s ready for the longest version of the game and that will be the most challenging one. I think he’s ready. Looking at his repertoire, he has the capability to go there and compete, without any doubt.”
Tendulkar believes the heat wave that has struck England this summer could bring India’s spinners into the game, tilting the scales decisively in India’s favour and I agree.
Kuldeep picked up nine wickets in the three-match ODI series and five from two matches in the Twenty20 International series against England before the Tests.
As the bilateral series wore on England began to read the spinner slightly better but the Test batting line-up is different to the limited overs unit. Kuldeep spins it both ways and with an identical action its very tough to read his googly. On August pitches (and England have hinted at what type of pitches they will be, recalling Adil Rashid to red ball cricket), he’ll be a real factor.
He has played two Tests to date, against Australia in Dharamsala and against Sri Lanka in Pallekele, taking nine wickets with best figures of 4/40.
England at odds on is price for the first part of a summer, green pitches and exposing India in unfamiliar conditions. In this summer, with parched squares and brown outfields India have conditions as good as they can be for an overseas tour outside the sub-continent.
India should be backed to win the series at 3.1 on the Exchange
10 points India to win the England Test Series 3.1 Betfair 2/1 Bet365
Shouting at clouds
As a hot summer trundles on further details are emerging of the ECB’s proposed new “The Hundred” competition, set to be introduced with 8 franchise teams from 2020 and which has been met with almost universal derision by regular cricket watchers, though perhaps that is not surprising. The aim after all is to reach a new audience.
According to the most recent plans "overs" will be bowled in blocks of five, with 10 balls from each end and bowlers permitted to deliver two sets in succession. The notion of one single 10-ball over at the end of the innings has been abandoned and it had been assumed that an even spread of 20 five-ball overs would be the next logical step.
However, the tournament's planners have come up with a new idea, as they attempt to shoehorn a match into a two-and-a-half-hour window.
Each innings of 100 balls will be divided into 20 sets of five, but unlike the traditional dynamic of the game consecutive "overs" will be bowled from the same end. Furthermore, one bowler will be entitled to bowl back-to-back "overs", rather than having to wait for a team-mate to complete a set before returning. Bowlers will be permited a maximum of four "overs" each.
The format will be trialled at Trent Bridge, for men, and Loughborough, for women, in September. It is suggested that the trial will involve teams of 15 a side too.
Meanwhile current cricket formats have been prospering this summer. Attendances were even up for the 50 over Royal London Cup, a competition shoehorned into the off-peak part of the summer and with mostly midweek matches; The early stages of the T20 Blast are showing the same. The international white‑ball matches have been sell-outs, though India being the visitors helps. The Test series against India, five tests starting at the beginning of August, is as box office as Tests get, the Ashes apart. It is only really the terrible scheduling of the four day game, with the majority of matches in April/May and September that rankles.
For cricket lovers, of which I am unashamedly one (possibly because at Grace Road, Leicester on a Wednesday afternoon this season I was referred to as “young un”!) the advent of The Hundred creates as much excitement and bewilderment as arguments over Brexit; A good percentage do not want it to happen and those of us who don’t are reduced to pining for the least worst option and effectively shouting at clouds that ”it’s going to be a disaster” at an audience that isn’t listening. Of course that applies here because the Hundred is not designed for cricket lovers.
The acceptance of the notion that a whole new audience will be enticed by five‑ball overs and 100 balls is a triumph for those in marketing but only if they have factored in the alienation of the many cricket fans, especially in the shires, who have no intention of watching contrived teams with which they have no affinity in a shortened game miles from home.
As one columnist wrote last week
"There’s scarcely been a better time to be a follower of English cricket. And yet, from the way the ECB talks about its existing audience in opposition to its new, target audience, you would be forgiven for thinking we existed in two different universes."
The real problem is it will condemn The Blast to second class status. This will sow the seeds of destruction of an 18 County system. Counties will from 2020 be supported by £1.3m ECB handouts for NOT playing cricket, the thin end of a very thick wedge.
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The Road to Riches Weekend of 19th-21st July
Coming up this weekend
- Racing, On the flat at Ascot, Haydock, Lingfield, Newbury, Newmarket and Ripon. Over the jumps at Cartmel and Market Rasen.
- Rugby Union, Super Rugby Quarter finals
- Formula One, the German Grand Prix at Hockenheim
- Tennis, ATP Hall of Fame Championships in Rhode Island, ATP Croatia and Swedish Opens.
- Golf, the Open Championship at Carnoustie.
US Open Tennis (27th Aug - 9th Sep 2018) - by Nigel Seeley
Full package, outrights, match analysis and details of all the bets we are having is £50 see here
Goodwood Festival (31st July - 4th August 2018) - by Neil Channing
Full write ups of every race giving details of the bets Neil is having, costing £99.99 see here
York Ebor Meeting (Wed 22nd Aug - Sat 25th Aug 2018) - by Neil Channing
Full write ups of every race giving details of the bets Neil is having, costing £99.99 see here
Free tip
Super Rugby Quarter final Hurricanes v Chiefs Friday 8.30am start
The quarter-finalists for the 2018 edition of Super Rugby have been confirmed following the completion of the round robin stages.
The eight teams are seeded with finishers 1-4 on the league table getting home quarter finals. The first quarter final takes place on Friday morning, 8.30am start between the Hurricanes and the Chiefs.
With the Crusaders winning the New Zealand conference and clinching the top seed these are the 2nd and 3rd place finishers in New Zealand and the top two wild card teams both with 11-5 win-loss records during the regular season.
The two teams met last weekend at the Chiefs, who won 28-24 having been 21-0 up at half time. That second half rally ensured home advantage is with the Hurricanes this weekend, finishing two points higher than the Chiefs after 16 games. Earlier this season the teams met in Wellington and that match was won 25-13 by the Hurricanes, a game with more riding on it than last weekend when line ups were changed, players were rested and both teams were at full pelt.
The winner here is likely to have the dubious honour of a trip to reigning champions the Crusaders in the semi-finals.
A close match is in prospect but of course home advantage is reversed which accounts for the point spread of -5 Hurricanes. That home advantage is likely to be crucial. The Hurricanes won all eight of their regular season matches at home
The Hurricanes, at one stage challenging the Crusaders to win the conference have had a disappointing end to the season winning one of their last five games but should have enough here in large part due to the flair and firepower of a back line sparked by halfback pairing TJ Perenara and Beauden Barrett with regular try scorers Ben Lam and Ngani Laumape outside now backed up by Milner-Skudder at full-back
It’s going to be close though.
10 points Hurricanes to win by 1-12 points 15/8 Betfair Sportsbook 7/4 Skybet 13/8 Sportingbet
Packed House
IMPECT, formed by former Bayer Leverkusen and Germany midfielder Stefan Reinartz, created a new idea for football stats in 2016. Their idea is that after every successful offensive action, there should be fewer opponents between the ball and the goal. Those that were behind the ball and were no longer, were considered “packed”.
He quoted his basic idea as follows ““It’s ultimately about retaining possession whilst getting past the opponents. The opponent is our problem and to solve it, I want to get past the opponent with the ball”
According to IMPECT, players can be packed in various ways. Namely:
- Vertical passes
- Diagonal balls
- Dribbles
A pass would need to be received and controlled for it to be counted as successful. For dribbles, the opponents that he passed on his way to goal are now considered packed.
Add all the players that were packed by means of these three, and you have yourself the “packing rate”.
Packing rate is a statistic that measures how much you outplay your opponents in a single game.The more players you pack in a single game, the higher your packing rate. Therefore, the higher the packing rate, the more opponents you outplayed.
Coaches such as Domenico Tedesco, who finished second with Schalke last season in Germany, and new PSG coach Thomas Tuchel, both use it in their team and opponent analyses. It came to wider attention due to publicity in the World Cup. Eight of the teams making up the top nine in ‘net bypassed defenders’ for the World Cup group stages qualified for the last 16.
Leaving aside draws only four world cup matches were won by the team who bypassed fewer defenders. In games with a result, the team who bypassed more defenders won 91% of the time.
If a player consistently holds his opponents to a lower packing rate than their average, then the statistic contends that that player is a good defender. Likewise, if a player always has high packing rates, that makes him a good offensive player. This can be used in team analysis as well to determine which plays, combinations, or strategies produce a higher packing rate.
England and more specifically the Premier League is a particular point of focus. Next season, IMPECT will be working with data from the Premier League and the Championship for the first time and, as a result, teams in England with co-founder Jens Hegeler playing for Bristol City. They currently work with 10 Bundesliga outfits, and Impect are in talks with two unnamed top six Premier League clubs.
Brodders Football Analysis
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Please open an account with all those bookmakers on the page on this link that you do not already have an account with using the links provided.
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
The Road to Riches Weekend of 14th-15th July
Coming up this weekend
- Football, The World Cup Final
- Cricket, the 2nd ODI between England and India at Lords on Saturday
- Racing, On the flat at Ascot, Chester, Hamilton, Newmarket, Salisbury and York. Over the jumps at Newton Abbot
- Tennis, the final weekend of Wimbledon.
- Golf, on the USPGA the John Deere Classic and on the European Tour the Scottish Open.
US Open Tennis (27th Aug - 9th Sep 2018) - by Nigel Seeley
Full package, outrights, match analysis and details of all the bets we are having is £50 see here
Goodwood Festival (31st July - 4th August 2018) - by Neil Channing
Full write ups of every race giving details of the bets Neil is having, costing £99.99 see here
York Ebor Meeting (Wed 22nd Aug - Sat 25th Aug 2018) - by Neil Channing
Full write ups of every race giving details of the bets Neil is having, costing £99.99 see here
Free tip
The Open Championship, Carnoustie
The 2018 Open Championship next week returns to Carnoustie in Angus. Quoted as "The most challenging golf links in the world", Carnoustie has a fierce reputation. It has hosted seven Opens and four have been won over par though last time eleven years ago in benign conditions Harrington shot -7 to win.
A flat course much of Carnoustie's difficulty is based around its length (7402 yards, par 71 but only two par 5s), plenty of out of bounds and deep pot bunkers both in the fairway and around the greens.
Obviously writing this a week ahead of the event. The weather looks set fair with firm dry conditions.
Looking back on 2007 (I actually remember Van Der Velde and the Burn at Carnoustie in rough conditions in 1999 better) Carnoustie certainly favoured the longer hitters. The top 3 finishers of Harrington, Garcia and Romero were all in the top 12 for Driving Distance. The other intersting statistic is that the three players also ranked 1st (Harrington), 6th (Garcia) and 16th (Romero) for scrambling. On a course where the best players were missing 18-20 greens over the tournament, scrambling to make par was more important than a hot putter.
So let’s put driving distance and Scrambling on the criteria.
Generally in form players are those to follow in Opens. It makes sense that those who are struggling with their games are unlikely to find form on a tough links course. 12 Champions from the last 18 events had won a tournament in the same season prior to winning.
So checking the stats and cross referencing for those popping up on driving distance, scrambling and recent form I found a player who ticked all three boxes. On the USPGA this year he is 14th in driving length, 4th in Scrambling, he’s won twice and in addition is 1stI in sand saves.
This player began hitting my shortlists early in 2018 when he was consistently right near the top of the putting columns. However I was also consistently put off by the “timeform squiggle” factors which in this instance were health concerns ( two years suffering from vertigo and back problems) and family issues, his wife suffered a miscarriage and his Mum had cancer. These combined had been a major factor, understandably enough, in why he hadn’t won in 2017 and had slipped down the world rankings.
So I had better mention who I had in mind: Jason Day. Whilst my squiggles led to me crossing him off and this hadn’t cost me in majors by doing so he has begun to win again, this year in the Wells Fargo and the Farmers at Torrey Pines and sometimes was winning without his best game too.
The off the field stuff is in better shape, he said in a recent Golf Digest interview
“Everything feels balanced in my life. I’ve got no problems at home or distractions, I’m focussed on golf”
Back when Day was winning a lot and world number 1, he finished 4th in the 2015 Open at St Andrews, the one where this column backed Oosthuizen who was pipped in the play off by Zach Johnson. Carnoustie is narrower than St Andrews, and Day isn’t as straight as he is long but this is a player whose short to mid-short game is in a great shape, he’s back to number seven in the rankings and we are not taking the prices we would have to take three years ago when he won a major and was routinely going off near the head of the market.
We can back him at 33-1 here getting 7 places with Sportingbet and for those who can with Skybet 10 places at 28-1. Worth checking out the various offers around next week for the best combination of odds and extra places.
10 points each way Jason Day to win the Open
33-1 Sportingbet 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7
28-1 SkyBet 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10
25-1 Bet365 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8
VARiance
Ten years ago cricket introduced DRS and the view was that it would benefit batsmen, previously dismissed incorrectly. In fact the reverse occurred, technology showed that umpires were mistaken in not awarding enough LBW decisions especially to spinners. Very quickly batsmen had to adapt techniques to avoid being given out if they played forward, where previously umpires had given them the benefit of the doubt.
Now of course as we reach the end of the World Cup, football is beginning a similar process because of VAR. The group stages saw 24 penalties in 48 games and an average of seven incident referrals per game. One of the notable features was VAR initially and then referees on their own punishing defenders for grappling attackers at set pieces, notably corners. Very quickly it became evident that the defender no longer has the benefit of the doubt.
Until defenders adapt the set piece delivery is going to assume greater importance, and of course this is an area in which England have excelled. By the by 44% of the 161 goals at this world cup have been from set-pieces.
Meanwhile more handballs are being given, as the traditional benefit of the doubt enjoyed by defenders is eroded by a variety of camera angles and communication between truck and referee.
It has also had a marked effect on player discipline, which is logical enough. Players know they can’t get away with the dark arts (though Colombia had a good go). In this World Cup there have been 4 red cards compared to 10 in 2014 and 17 in 2010. It could be argued that VAR is helping to clean up the game.
The use of VAR is in its early stages and all of its effects are not clear yet except that we know it is impacting optimal defensive strategies and while we don’t know where that will lead in full (might it mean traditional wingers come back into fashion, given the importance of crosses in an era where handballs and grappling are going to be routinely spotted?) it’s a reasonable supposition to say that it will affect the way the game is being played. It did so in other games, cricket mentioned above but rugby, basketball, the NFL are others were technology has influenced strategy and coaching. Who adapts quickest, from coaches to players might be a big determinant of success, and form a part of our betting considerations .
Brodders Football Analysis
Long term profit over more than four years. Following all bets subscribers are winning £21,610 (£10 a point, avg bet £150) +ROI 3.15% (correct at 27/06/18)
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Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £40,561 All bets have an ROI +3.43%
A £4000 bank (see FAQ re bank-roll requirements) betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £44,561 a 1014% increase
(correct at 27/06/2018)
