Weekly Articles "Road to Riches" by Rich 'Tighty' Prew
The Road to Riches: Weekend of 17th-18th February
Coming Up this weekend
- Football, the Fifth round of the FA Cup
- Cricket, the T20 Tri-Series continues with the last of the group games in New Zealand, who play England in Hamilton on Sunday
- Racing, Over the jumps at Ascot, Haydock and Wincanton. All-weather racing at Kempton and Lingfield.
- Tennis, the World Tennis Tournament in Rotterdam. ATP Opens in Buenos Aires and New York
- Golf, the Genesis Open at Riviera GC in Los Angeles on the USPGA and the Oman Open on the European Tour
Cheltenham Festival Tues 13th - Fri 16th March 2018
Package now added to our homepage.
All four race days of the festival are included and you will also get access to any previews or ante-post write ups that Neil does.
See here for details
Cheltenham 2018 Preview Night
We have nearly sold out of tickets for our Cheltenham Preview Dinner. If you are thinking of coming buy your ticket now as there are just a few left.
When: Saturday 10th March 2018 (615pm Champagne reception, followed by four course dinner inc wine)
Where: The Bleeding Heart Restaurant, Bleeding Heart Yard, off Greville Street, Hatton Garden, London EC1N 8SJ
See here for full details
MustardBet are back!
Tight margins, no account closures and re-bet as often as you like. If you bet the maximum available which is clearly shown on the screen you can bet again afterwards again and again
Read more: here Open your account and try them out here
Free tip
2018 Super Rugby Preview
After two seasons in which 18 teams participated, Supe rRugby 2018 sees the tournament revert to 15 teams participating in of three geographical conferences with the Cheetahs, Kings and Force dropped for this season
The teams are divided intothe Australian Conference (consisting of four Australian teams and the Sunwolves), the New Zealand Conference (consisting of five New Zealand teams), and the South African Conference (consisting of four South African teams and the Jaguares)
In the group stages, there are 18 rounds of matches, with each team playing 16 matches and having two rounds of byes. Teams play eight inter-conference matches and eight cross-conference matches; they play all the other teams in their conference twice and play once against four of the teams in the other two conferences.
The top team in each of the three conferences qualifies for the quarterfinals, as do the next five teams with the best records across the three conferences.
The Crusaders, secured their eighth Super Rugby title last season, with a 25-18 win over the Lions in Johannesburg. In 2017, 142 matches were played and a total of 978 tries were scored, the highest tries per game ratio in the tournament’s history.
Tournament outright odds (best generally available) are
Crusaders 7/2
Hurricanes 4/1
Lions 6/1
Chiefs 8/1
Highlanders 8/1
Blues 14/1
Brumbies 16/1
Stormers 18/1
25/1
The New Zealand conference and the New Zealand game is general is the strongest in the competition as evidenced by them having five of the six tournament favourites this time round.
The Hurricanes won 12 of their 15 regular season matches last year and were the only team to beat the Crusaders, a 31-22 win in the final round of the regular season. They lost in Johannesburg in the Semis having won the competition the year before.
The Hurricanes broke the try-scoring season record in 2017 scoring 97, 16 more than the record set by the Lions the year before. They played high-octane brand of rugby and managed to secure the second-best defensive record (points allowed and tries allowed) in the competition. Players like Vaea Fifita and Ardie Savea starred and the side from Wellington has the best 9-10 combination (TJ Perenara and Beauden Barrett) in the competition. Their vision and speed created a number of opportunities for the key centre pairing of Ngani Laumape (15 tries) and Vince Aso (14 tries). Fullback Jordie Barrett also had a phenomenal breakout season
In addition Wellington won the domestic Mitre 10 Championship last year and a pipeline of great talent is now coming into the Hurricanes team to give the squad great depth through a long season
Super Rugby will also see an adoption of some law changes that were announced by World Rugby in July 2017. The facets of the game where changes have taken place are the tackle area, the ruck and the scrum. SANZAAR CEO Andy Marinos is on the record as stating he 'hopes these changes will lead to a better flowing game'. If it does, no team will be better placed to benefit than the Hurricanes.
I expect the Hurricanes to win the New Zealand Conference, and win their second title in three seasons
10 points Hurricanes to win 2018 Super Rugby 4/1 Bet365, Coral, Betfred
Mathletes
The term GTO (Game Theory Optimistion ) originated with poker. Philadelphia Eagles coach Doug Pederson applies GTO to on-field decision making, which is revolutionary for the NFL.
As written here a couple of weeks ago The Eagles went for it on fourth down 26 times during the regular season , second most in the league converting a league-high 17 attempts. This happened twice more in the Superbowl. Firstly on 4th and 2 in the first half and secondly in the now famous “Philly Special” play,the touchdown pass to quarterback Nick Foles on 4th and 1 before half time, which Foles requested they run.
In the scenario the Eagles found themselves in ( fourth-and-goal situation and up three points just before half) most coaches would kick a field goal and take the points.
The situations in which the Eagles decide on the aggressive course of action are not random. They are often decided before the start of the game or even before the start of the season. The approach is driven by an analytics team who communicate with the head coach during a game discussed how he has an analytics expert in his ear all game telling him Success Rates & Win Probabilities of play calls.
Last season, updated for the Superbowl, they scored a touchdown or field goal on 15 of the 20 drives in which they converted a fourth down, totaling 95 points. The times they went for it on fourth down and didn't convert, the opposing team didn't score a single point on the subsequent drive.
I first noticed this (and frankly thought far less of it than I should have done, at least from a betting perspective) last September when watching NFL Red Zone one Sunday evening. The Eagles went for a 4th and 8 against the Giants, ( from the Giants' 43-yard line Eagles were up 7-0 with 2:36 remaining in the second quarter ) a decision that looked baffling and was commentated on in such terms.
When Pederson was asked afterwards about the call he began his explanation with what was then a revelation.
"Yeah, it was something I discussed with the guy that's helping me upstairs with some of the analytics,"
Pederson named one of them at his day-after news conference -- coaching assistant/linebackers coach Ryan Paganetti, a Dartmouth graduates who spent two years as an analyst for the team. Offensive coordinator Frank Reich (now the new coach of the Indianapolis Colts ) said there is a second voice that can be heard over the game-day communications system when it comes to such matters -- director of football compliance Jon Ferrari.
The pair weighs in throughout the game, Reich said: after just about every touchdown on whether to go for one or two; during the final two minutes of each half to discuss timeouts, etc.; and when the team gets into what is considered fourth-down territory -- usually around midfield and beyond. Sometimes Pederson initiates the dialogue; other times, the men upstairs do.
Interestingly GTO ideas have been around for several years in the NFL. A 2015 Harvard paper was titled “Optimal Play Calling in the NFL: A Data-Driven Approach”
In it (link available on request!) the author begins “how should a coach go about choosing a play? In the end, I hope to convince you that it’s one of the most interesting mathematical problems in sports. And obviously play calling is one of the most important problems in football. So pretty much, math is the most important thing in football.”
And he concludes “a rigorous, mathematical play calling scheme adds an advantage to the intuitive, experiential knowledge that coaches already have.”
Returning to the Eagles
"When you do the math, you really want to try to be a lot more aggressive than the public would normally anticipate," said Eagles owner Jeffrey Lurie last week.
At an earlier press conference he said
"A lot of teams -- ours is one -- where it's all [decided] is in the offseason, done with mathematics. It's not based on any form of instinct. If it's going to be 50/50, 48/52, then a coach is going to have their instinctual predilection, right? But what we found is there's been so many decisions over time that are too conservative for the odds of maximizing your chance to win at the opportunity, So any decision, hopefully, any coach of ours makes is based on maximising the chances to win. We've lived with television commentators and reporters and whatever for 20, 30, 40 years, who always kind of adopted what I would call a very conservative approach to those decisions. I think the smarter teams do it that way."
The NFL is a copycat league, look out for analytics and GTO to be talked about a lot more next season and aggressive plays becoming much more the norm.
Brodders Football Analysis
Sign up to Brodders match analysis and recommended bets here for £50 a month. You are free to cancel at any time.
This week Brodders published an in depth ante post Champions League write up covering outrights/ groups/ goal-scorer bets
Long term profit over more than three years. Following all bets subscribers are winning £19,593 (£10 a point, average bet £150) +ROI 3.27% (correct at 3/1/18)
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Euro & other Football by Brodders (monthly) |
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Bookmaker reviews and advice
Getting the best price available is very important for all those who take their betting seriously.
Please open an account with all those bookmakers on the page on this link that you do not already have an account with using the links provided.
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £36,802 All bets have an ROI +3.49%
A £4000 bank (see FAQ re bank-roll requirements) betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £40,802 a 920% increase
(correct at 3/1/18)
The Road to Riches Weekend of 10th-11th February
Coming Up this weekend
- Football, Premier League matches include Tottenham v Arsenal and Manchester City v Leicester City
- Rugby Union, the second weekend of the Six Nations
- Cricket, the T20 Tri-Series continues, with Australia playing England in Melbourne on Saturday
- Racing, Over the jumps at Newbury, Uttoxeter and Warwick. All-weather racing at Lingfield and Wolverhampton
- Tennis, ATP Opens in Quito, Sofia and Montpellier
- Golf, the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am on the USPGA and the World Super Six in Perth on the European Tour
Cheltenham 2018 Preview Night
Tickets go on Sale 1pm Saturday 10th February
When: Saturday 10th March 2018 (615pm Champagne reception, followed by four course dinner inc wine)
Where: The Bleeding Heart Restaurant, Bleeding Heart Yard, off Greville Street, Hatton Garden, London EC1N 8SJ
See here for full details
MustardBet are back!
Tight margins, no account closures and re-bet as often as you like. If you bet the maximum available which is clearly shown on the screen you can bet again afterwards again and again
Read more: here Open your account and try them out here
Free tip
The Betfair Hurdle, Saturday 3.35pm Newbury by Neil Channing
United Nations
The 2018–19 UEFA Nations League will be the inaugural season of a new competition which will be held from September to November 2018 (league phase) and June 2019 (Nations League Finals) and will also serve as part of the qualification process for Euro2020 awarding berths in the play-offs which will decide four of the twenty-four final tournament slots.
The UEFA Nations League stems from the desire of UEFA and its 55 member associations to improve the quality and standing of national team football. Supporters more than most realise that most friendlies fail to deliver competitive and meaningful football. Now they will have the opportunity to see their teams play in more competitive matches, take part in a new competition and get a second chance to qualify for the major tournaments.
The 55 UEFA national teams are divided into four divisions 12 teams in League A, 12 teams in League B, 15 teams in League C, and 16 teams in League D, teams allocated according to their national team co-efficients
Each league will be divided into four groups of three or four teams, so each team will play four or six matches within their group (using the home-and-away round robin format), on double matc-hdays in September, October and November 2018.
In the top division, League A, teams will compete to become the UEFA Nations League champions. The four group winners of League A will qualify for the Nations League Finals in June 2019, which will be played in a knockout format, consisting of the semi-finals, third place play-off, and final. The host country will be selected among the four qualified teams in December 2018 by the UEFA Executive Committee.
Teams will also compete for promotion and relegation to a higher or lower league. The League A groups were drawn as follows:
Group 1: Germany, France, Netherlands
Group 2: Belgium, Switzerland, Iceland
Group 3: Portugal, Italy, Poland
Group 4: Spain, England, Croatia
Changes to UEFA EURO qualifying will make it more streamlined. The equation is now simple: ten groups with the top two teams in each group qualifying automatically, and the other four places being awarded to European Qualifiers play-off winners, in which the 16 group winners of the UEFA Nations League will be in contention.
For middle-ranking and smaller nations, the UEFA Nations League will offer an extra way to qualify for UEFA EURO final tournaments. Lower-tier countries the bottom 16 in the rankings are now guaranteed one of the 24 qualifying slots for UEFA EURO.
There is now a further proposal by a number of confederations, led by UEFA, to introduce a truly global international football competition with the suggestion that an eight team Global Nations cup would consist of the winners of the three top division groups in Europe and two places for South America then one each for Asia, Africa and CONCACAF. Suggestions are that this could be in place for 2020
Brodders Football Analysis
Sign up to Brodders match analysis and recommended bets here for £50 a month. You are free to cancel at any time.
This week Brodders published an in depth ante post Champions League write up covering outrights/ groups/ goal-scorer bets
Long term profit over more than three years. Following all bets subscribers are winning £19,593 (£10 a point, average bet £150) +ROI 3.27% (correct at 3/1/18)
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Euro & other Football by Brodders (monthly) |
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Bookmaker reviews and advice
Getting the best price available is very important for all those who take their betting seriously.
Please open an account with all those bookmakers on the page on this link that you do not already have an account with using the links provided.
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £36,802 All bets have an ROI +3.49%
A £4000 bank (see FAQ re bank-roll requirements) betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £40,802 a 920% increase
(correct at 3/1/18)
The Road to Riches Weekend of 3rd-4th February 2018
Coming Up this weekend
- Football, Premier League matches include Liverpool v Tottenham
- NFL, the Superbowl: Philadelphia Eagles v New England Patriots
- Rugby Union, the first weekend of the Six Nations
- Cricket, the start of the T20 Tri-Series, with Australia playing England in Sydney on Saturday and the Big ash final Adelaide Strikers v Hobart Hurricanes
- Racing, Over the jumps at Musselburgh, Sandown and Wetherby. All-weather racing at Kempton Park and Lingfield
- Tennis, Davis Cup World Group Round One ties. Great Britain play Spain in Marbella.
- Golf, the Waste Management Phoenix Open at TPC Scottsdale on the USPGA and on the European Tour the Maybank Championship in Malaysia
NFL Superbowl
The Super Bowl package includes all Neil's Super Bowl game analysis PLUS all his infamous prop bets. Neil has written an introduction that can be seen at http://www.bettingemporium.com/tips/index/203
Anyone who signed up to the £50 Playoff package also gets the £25 Super Bowl package included for free.
If you had bet £10 a point on Super Bowl and Playoffs with us over the last five years you would have won £1880 with a +ROI 10.04% and had 4 out of 5 winning years.
Super Bowl and Playoff profit and loss last five years:
2017/18 +27.6 (so far) +13.8% ROI
2016/17 +100.56 ROI +18.9%
2015/16 -20.97 ROI -5.39%
2014/15 +49.5 ROI +9.5%
2013/14 +31.7 ROI +13.7%
Cheltenham 2018 Preview Night
Tickets go on Sale 1pm Saturday 10th February
When: Saturday 10th March 2018 (6.15pm Champagne reception, followed by four course dinner inc wine)
Where: The Bleeding Heart Restaurant, Bleeding Heart Yard, off Greville Street, Hatton Garden, London EC1N 8SJ
See here for full details
MustardBet are back!
Tight margins, no account closures and re-bet as often as you like. If you bet the maximum available which is clearly shown on the screen you can bet again afterwards again and again
Read more: here Open your account and try them out here
Free tip
Oldham Athletic v Bradford City League One Saturday 3pm
Two out of form teams meet at (the former) Boundary Park in League One tomorrow.
Oldham have lost four of their last five games in a winless run that has sees them mired in 22nd place in the table having regressed following a strong run of form when Richie Wellens was appointed caretaker manager. They have comfortably the worst defensive record in the division conceding 55 goals in their 30 league games
Bradford are still in the top six, a familiar place in the last few seasons in which they have lost in the play offs for the last two years both times to Millwall including last year’s final.
Bradford have lost five in a row this year, most recently 4-0 at home to AFC Wimbledon last Saturday which followed Stuart McCall the manager getting a vote of confidence. In the light of that he’s probably doing well to still be manager. However 4-0 is a harsh reflection of a game where AFC Wimbledon had four shots on target and scored all four. Bradford enjoyed 55% possession and had seven shots on target and got thumped
The effect of this result and the bad run in general is that a side fifth in the division and still set for the play-offs is available at nearly 2/1 to win at a side third from bottom. This recency bias in prices may well be correct but we wouldn’t be getting circa 2/1 about the away team here at most other times of the season.
Bradford were active at the end of the transfer window signing four new players (and just missed out on a fifth) including a striker (to support Charlie Wyke, top scorer with 13 goals) and the experienced Stephen Warnock. McCall said at the beginning of the week “I expect us to be a lot stronger in the next few weeks and that's new signings and getting players back from injury."
Wellens meanwhile was frustrated at the failure to bring in more signings on transfer deadline day.
"It's very frustrating. I spent 14 hours at the club yesterday and I wanted three of my players in, but I didn't get one done,"
8 points Bradford City to beat Oldham Bet365 and William Hill
Dive!
To complement Neil’s Superbowl coverage a “deep dive” into some of the interesting factors behind the success of the two teams
Patriots
In 17 years, the Patriots have 15 division titles, 12 AFC championship appearances, seven Super Bowl appearances, and five Super Bowl wins. In a league designed to produce parity with the draft and free agency preventing, in theory, the establishment of ”dynasties” this is extremely rare
Of course the central factors in this dominance are an all time great coach (Belichek) and an all time great quarterback (Brady) but in addition to that the team often makes contrarian personnel decisions, such as trading players at or near their prime ahead of reductions in value, moves that are often questioned heavily at the time. In terms of game planning, Belichek (general manager, head coach and long time defensive co-ordinator) has a completely ruthless ability to exploit superior match ups and the flexibility of the roster is key. One week it’s the run game, the next the deep passing game.
Detractors might point out that New England had the luxury of beating the Jets, Bills, and Dolphins (a combined 44 different starting quarterbacks since 2001) twice each year to win the division. However counting the playoffs, the Patriots are 82-24 against the AFC East (77.4%) since 2001, the best divisional mark in the league and 235-72 since 2001 across every team producing an almost-identical winning percentage (76.5%)
Play-off football can be a game of fine margins. New England is a few “fluke” plays (the David Tyree catch for the Giants for example) from being 7-0 in the Super Bowl but also two opponents decisions (the Seahawks and Falcons not running the ball) from being 0-4 in the Super Bowl in the past 10 years.
Just counting his numbers since 2010, Tom Brady has thrown for more passing yards and touchdowns in the playoffs than everyoe in league history except for Manning, Brett Favre, and Joe Montana. If you divided Brady’s career in half—2001 to 2009 and 2010 to today—and assigned each to two different people, both would be locks to make the Hall of Fame.
Eagles
The Eagles went for it on fourth down 26 times during the regular season, second most in the league and they converted a league-high 17 of those attempts.
The situations in which the Eagles decide on the aggressive course of action are not random. They are often decided before the start of the game or even before the start of the season. The approach is driven by an analytics team who communicate with the head coach during a game
They have scored a touchdown or field goal on 13 of the 18 drives in which they converted a fourth down, totaling 85 points. The times they went for it on fourth down and didn't convert, the opposing team didn't score a single point on the subsequent drive.
The team has had a big focus on for understanding situational odds, not always a strength of other coaching teams.
Analytics are being deployed on the defensive side of the ball as well. Defensive coordinator Jim Schwartz is known to be very much data-driven in his approach to the job. He passes his statistical findings on to his players, and demands they be able to recall it at a moment's notice, so that in the “chaos” of a game they don’t just have to rely on a coach’s call from the sideline but can think on their feet too .
The use of analytics has given the Eagles an edge in some critical areas to this point.
Brodders Football Analysis
Sign up to Brodders match analysis and recommended bets here for £50 a month. You are free to cancel at any time.
This week Brodders published an in depth ante post Champions League write up covering outrights/ groups/ goal-scorer bets
Long term profit over more than three years. Following all bets subscribers are winning £19,593 (£10 a point, average bet £150) +ROI 3.27% (correct at 3/1/18)
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Euro & other Football by Brodders (monthly) |
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Bookmaker reviews and advice
Getting the best price available is very important for all those who take their betting seriously.
Please open an account with all those bookmakers on the page on this link that you do not already have an account with using the links provided.
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £36,802 All bets have an ROI +3.49%
A £4000 bank (see FAQ re bank-roll requirements) betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £40,802 a 920% increase
(correct at 3/1/18)
The Road to Riches Weekend of 27th-28th January
Coming Up this weekend
- Football, the FA Cup fourth round
- Cricket, the fifth and final ODI between Australia and England in Perth on Sunday
- Racing, Over the jumps at Cheltenham, Doncaster and Uttoxeter. All-weather racing at Kempton Park and Lingfield
- Tennis, the final weekend of the Australian Open.
- Golf, the Farmers Insurance Open at Torrey Pines on the USPGA and on the European Tour the Omega Dubai Desert Classic in the UAE.
NFL Superbowl
The Super Bowl package includes all Neil's Super Bowl game analysis PLUS all his infamous prop bets. Neil has written an introduction that can be seen at http://www.bettingemporium.com/tips/index/203
Anyone who signed up to the £50 Playoff package also gets the £25 Super Bowl package included for free.
If you had bet £10 a point on Super Bowl and Playoffs with us over the last five years you would have won £1880 with a +ROI 10.04% and had 4 out of 5 winning years.
Super Bowl and Playoff profit and loss last five years:
2017/18 +27.6 (so far) +13.8% ROI
2016/17 +100.56 ROI +18.9%
2015/16 -20.97 ROI -5.39%
2014/15 +49.5 ROI +9.5%
2013/14 +31.7 ROI +13.7%
MustardBet are back!
Tight margins, no account closures and re-bet as often as you like. If you bet the maximum available which is clearly shown on the screen you can bet again afterwards again and again
Read more: here Open your account and try them out here
Free tip
FA Cup Fourth round: MK Dons v Coventry City 3pm Saturday
Nine league places separate these two sides, and both will regard it as a favourable draw in terms of progressing to the next round.
MK Dons are 21st in League One and this week replaced their manager bringing in their former Academy boss and England Under-16 coach Dan Micciche. They are on a poor run of one win in 11 games which precipitated the change.
Coventry, among the ante-post favourites to get promoted from League two, are in the play off places under experienced manager Mark Robins. Having suffered numerous off-field problems since their heyday they are in the early stages of achieving more stability and getting into a position to climb the leagues again.
Living reasonably close to Coventry (not that I admit it much) I keep an eye on them. The side is packed with good young players and a big local catchment area brings in those young players from both the West and East Midlands.
Coventry have only conceded 20 goals in 28 league games and had a slice of “hidden luck” when being drawn against Stoke in the third round and beating them when they were at their lowest ebb in what was to prove to be Mark Hughes’ final game.
The MK Stadium holds 30,000 and is magnificent. Average attendance this season is 8,948 and Coventry have sold their full quota of 7,833 for the game. In the league last season Cventry were limited to 1,000 tickets (9,066 attendance) I’d have a hard time contending that MK Dons have much of a home advantage tomorrow, the setting isn’t foreboding, the home crowd might be out-numbered and the away team is confident .
So all this is interesting, you might (or might not) think, so what?
Well it’s the prices. MK Dons 6/5, the Draw 9/4 and Coventry 5/2. I can’t have that Coventry are 5/2 here.
10 points Coventry City to beat MK Dons 5/2 Bet365, William Hill, Betfred
Changes.
Updating some thoughts from a few weeks ago, eight managers have now been replaced in the Premier League this season after the first 24 games each, with Silva and Hughes the latest departures.
This season the majority of the six other managerial changes made this season has seen teams enjoy a clear "bounce" after changing managers. Palace’s revival has been particularly impressive. After a slow start since replacing Frank de Boer in September, Roy Hodgson has now guided Palace to 11th with a seven-game unbeaten run along the way and Palace also secured three clean sheets in a row away from home in that spell.
As for Allardyce, he has taken Everton into the top ten. With further reinforcements arriving in the current transfer window, Everton could even repeat their seventh-placed finish of last season.
Leicester under Claude Puel meanwhile, are adapting a counter-attacking style to one that is more possession based and he is bringing the best out of Mahrez while David Moyes has made West Ham fitter and organised. Very early days but the appointment of Carvahal at Swansea, possibly the most surprising of the lot this season, has seen some improved performance and seven points in the last four games including Monday’s win over Liverpool.
Only West Brom have changed their manager this season and failed to see an immediate uplift, although they did win for the first time under Alan Pardew (and the first time in twenty games overall) a fortnight ago against Brighton and followed that up with a draw at Everton. Stoke meanwhile won Lambert’s first game to move out of the bottom three
Whilst difficult to draw overall conclusions as each case is different one thing all the short term bounces has done is bring a number of teams into the relegation mix whereas they would have been thought of as safe only a few weeks ago.
Teams as high in the table as Watford on a bad run of form (11 defeats in 16 matches since Everton came calling for Silva) and the promoted clubs (none of whom are likely to change their manager) are now well in the relegation mix too. Fans of Newcastle (especially if no takeover materialises in the next few days to release funds for team strengthening), Huddersfield and Brighton are sitting less comfortably than they were as the “old guard” of new managers produce improvements elsewhere
Brodders Football Analysis
Sign up to Brodders match analysis and recommended bets here for £50 a month. You are free to cancel at any time.
This week Brodders published an in depth ante post Champions League write up covering outrights/ groups/ goal-scorer bets
Long term profit over more than three years. Following all bets subscribers are winning £19,593 (£10 a point, average bet £150) +ROI 3.27% (correct at 3/1/18)
|
Euro & other Football by Brodders (monthly) |
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|
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Bookmaker reviews and advice
Getting the best price available is very important for all those who take their betting seriously.
Please open an account with all those bookmakers on the page on this link that you do not already have an account with using the links provided.
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £36,802 All bets have an ROI +3.49%
A £4000 bank (see FAQ re bank-roll requirements) betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £40,802 a 920% increase
(correct at 3/1/18)
The Road to Riches: Weekend of 20th-21st January
Coming Up this weekend
- Football, Premier League fixtures include Manchester City v Newcastle United
- NFL, Play Offs: The Conference Championships.
- Cricket, the third ODI between Australia and England in Sydney on Sunday
- Racing, Over the jumps at Ascot, Haydock and Taunton. All-weather racing at Chelmsford City and Lingfield
- Tennis, the middle weekend of the Australian Open.
- Golf, the CareerBuilder Challenge at PGA West on the USPGA and on the European Tour the Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship
- Rugby Union, the final round of Pool Matches in the European Rugby Champions Cup
NFL Play offs
Neil's write up on this coming weekend's Conference Championships is available
Package for the playoffs is £50. Sign up here
Super Bowl package includes all Neil's Super Bowl game analysis PLUS all his infamous prop bets.
Anyone signing up to the £50 Playoff package also gets the £25 Super Bowl package included for free.
Australian Open Tennis by Nigel Seeley
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Australian Open Tennis (Jan 15th – Jan 28th 2018) |
Analysis of matches for the second half of the Australian Open
MustardBet are back!
Tight margins, no account closures and re-bet as often as you like. If you bet the maximum available which is clearly shown on the screen you can bet again afterwards again and again
Read more: here Open your account and try them out here
Free tip
European Rugby Champions Cup Pool Games Round 6 Leicester v Racing92 Sunday 1pm
Going into the last round of Pool matches this weekend, in Pool 4 Munster lead Racing92 by a point and for both five point (maximum bonus point) wins are crucial on Sunday to give themselves a shot at winning the pool first and secondly qualifying for the quarter finals as a runner up if not.
A reminder of the competition format: The five Pool winners and only the three best runners up make the knock-out rounds with the Quarter finals at the end of March.
Leicester are out of contention for the last eight and played a second string team in Castres last weekend and were beaten 39-0. Since their glory days and in recent years Leicester are in transition, cycling through head coaches as they search for a formula to compete domestically (they are down in 8th in the Aviva Premiership, recently losing six in a row either side of Christmas) and in Europe.
One of the issues they have is a structural one, player age inflation is outstripping growth in the salary cap and so squad depth isn’t what it once was. This is being reflected in results of most of the English teams in the ERCC this season and it is possible that none of the five participants will make the last eight depending on this weekend’s results. Leicester have recruited “flashily” with Jonny May, George Ford and Matt Toomua helping give them a potent back line on paper but lack of speed in the back row is a real issue that is seen repeatedly when coming up against the better sides
Racing92 won a thriller, 34-30, at home to Munster last Sunday and will need a five point win (scoring four tries) here to stand a chance of winning the group or, more likely, a runners up spot for the last eight assuming Munster beat Castres with four tries which they should. Unfortunately for our ante-post bet the Racing win last weekend has probably cost Munster prime seeding (and possibly a home quarter final) assuming they do beat Castres
Of course last weekend’s game was on a “fast track”, the indoor U Arena in Paris and backing a French team away from home is an entirely different proposition. However Racing are a long way into a transition of their own, a side rebuilt after 2016 with a poor season last year but now becoming contenders again (3rd in the Top 14) They have a big ball winning pack (the match up in the back row here particularly favours Racing) and finishers all over the back line. They will expect to win here and all eyes will be on scoring at least four tries.
The handicap quote of Racing -4 looks off to me,its moved in a couple of points after Leicester picked a team with 13 changes from last week including the return of their international players. Racing should though not only cover but could win by more than a score
10 points Racing 92 to win by 1-12 points at 7/4 SkyBet (11/8 William Hill)
Scorched.
Just after Australia regained the Ashes the seventh season of the Big Bash League began.Over the six previous years the Big Bash’s attendance has doubled. With an extra eight games this year that figure will be even greater and the BBL is expected to expand by a further 16 games soon, possibly heading abroad soon too. A the new TV rights deal begins next season and it should be worth a multiple of the current £11.5m per year contract. The BBL’s average attendance, with crowds full of families, is already among the world's top 10 sporting leagues.
The contrast with the marketing of England’s domestic T20 competition is obvious. England’s new Twenty20 competition which finally launches in 2020 is modelled on the BBL: It will be played in the school holidays, also has eight teams, and there will be a strict salary cap to ensure talent is spread across the teams. Like American sports leagues, the BBL is designed to produce competitive balance. The salary cap and limits on overseas players theoretically render dynasty-building impossible. In an age of growing home advantage in Test cricket, it gives domestic T20 leagues the advantage of unpreditability at the star tof any game.
However just like the NFL, say, where the New England Patriots have been able to overcome the rules designed to lead to competitive balance (all time great coaching and quarterbacking helps..) in the BBL’s six seasons the Perth Scorchers have made five finals. Since Justin Langer became coach, the Scorchers have won it three times in four years. As we reach the end of the group stages in this year's competition, they are top of the table again.
In the short term world of T20 competitions where players play in many teams depending on the tournament the Scorchers are different. This is a year round team because of the continuity between Western Australia’s sides in the longer formats and the Scorchers, all of whom are coached by Langer. That cohesiveness is vital to their success but so too is a professional approach not just on fitness but also in the use of data.
The Scorchers have developed programmes, equivalents of the baseball/Moneyball systems, that give indicators on the opposition, their own team and who they should select for the match-ups. A dossier produced for every match includes which Perth batsmen are best-suited to facing particular opposition bowlers, and which Perth bowlers are best-placed to restrict particular batsmen.
That approach extends to the Scorchers’ recruitment policy where the Scorchers have developed a database comparing their own players with others in various roles to highlight those who will make the biggest difference to the squad. Essentially the analysis allows them to see which overseas player will provide the most value to Perth’s squad, taking into account who they would replace in the side. The model has repeatedly hit upon obscure overseas recruits. Perhaps the best examples are Alfonso Thomas and Yasir Arafat, two quick bowlers with minimal international experience. Amongst players Perth have recruited from England are David Willey, Ian Bell and Tim Bresnan, the latter two long jettisoned from the England T20 international set up.
Ignoring the consensus that T20 is a game of big hitting and thatg is where resources need to be spent, Scorchers captain Adam Voges believes bowlers win T20 games. Accordingly, Perth normally pick five specialist bowlers. They have defended under 150 nine times in the past four years.
The signs for English teams in the two years before our new all singing all dancing T20 franchise tournaent launches is that adopting data analysis leads to a competitive advantage or will til at least everyone does it..
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