The Road to Riches Weekend of 4th-5th November

Coming Up this weekend

- Football, Premier League matches include Manchester City v Arsenal and Chelsea v Manchester United

- Racing, The 2017 Breeders' Cup at Del Mar in California. Flat meetings at Newmarket and Newcastle. Over the jumps at Ascot, Ayr and Wetherby.

- Tennis, ATP BNP Paribas Masters in Paris and the WTA Elite Trophy in Zhuhai,China.

- Golf, On the USPGA The Shriners Hospitals for Children Open at TPC Summerlin and on the European Tour the Turkish Open.

- Rugby Union As a precursor to the Autumn Internationals which start next week the Barbarians v New Zealand play at Twickenham

- Cricket The Ashes tour begins against a WACA XI in Perth.

NFL Week Nine

The cost for sign up for the regular season is now £60

Coming Soon

Free tip by Neil Channing

Sodexo Cup Saturday 3.35pm Ascot

From the Ashes?

The ICC intends to create a nine-team Test championship to run from 2019 and feature a final every two years. A competition that goes beyond the rankings system has been a subject of debate at ICC level for some time. The top nine Test nations would play four series at home and four away over a two-year period, with the league table leading into a final that would decide the outright Test champions. Countries would only meet once in each two year league either home or away. The fixtures would then be reversed next time around.

Test match cricket has been in decline and a championship could add relevance to every game and series and casual fans will be able to associate with a league table more than the current complicated rankings which no one reading this could explain how they are calculated!.

The main challenge for many teams in the new Championship will be to win away from home, a rarity in modern test cricket and there will be quite a lot of league table variance based around the fixture patterns. England would currently expect to be high in the table but if the fixtures fall away in India, Pakistan and Australia say, it will be tough to get to the final.

Fundamentally there are a lot of people against change in cricket and instinctively I am one of them, being a fan of five day test cricket but as ever the broadcasters are key here because with the exception of the Ashes it isn’t easy to create narratives that hit home for many series. Traditionalists will say Test cricket should not be about money however growing the game in new areas such as women’s cricket, grassroots and schools takes a lot of funding and that only comes through broadcast deals.

The average Test match currently lasts for 331 overs and sometimes a Test involves a close finish but the majority of matches finish in four days or less which is where the notion that five day test cricket could be removed and replaced with four day tests being discussed currently comes from. Again the idea (as in county cricket) that teams might have to set up results isn’t something the purists like but the bigger picture is scheduling and the amount of money lost on the fifth day when grounds are empty.

Four-day Tests will also be easier to schedule alongside T20 leagues. Currently in England, in part because of the crowded season, the Test is all over the place with games starting on any day from Wednesday to Saturday.

Fnally the move towards a Test Championship is part of an accelerating rollback of the “Big Three” model that was introduced in 2014 and saw India, Australia and England allocate themselves an increased proportion of revenues from global events. A result of this has been lowered standards and slower development from sides like Sri Lanka and the West Indies and a more equitable revenue model may see a broader more competitive Test game develop over the next decade and hopefully played to a larger audience too.

Brodders Football Analysis

Sign up to Brodders match analysis and recommended bets here for £50 a month. You are free to cancel at any time.

This week Brodders published an in depth ante post Champions League write up covering outrights/ groups/ goal-scorer bets

Long term profit over more than three years. Following all bets subscribers are winning £21,758 (£10 a point, average bet £150) +ROI 3.78% (correct at 30/10/17)

Bookmaker reviews and advice

Getting the best price available is very important for all those who take their betting seriously.

Please open an account with all those bookmakers on the page on this link that you do not already have an account with using the links provided.

There are literally hundreds of pounds on offer from bookmakers just for signing up through Bettingemporium.com

Betting Emporium results

The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS

If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £40,648 All bets have an ROI +4.01%

A £4000 bank (see FAQ re bank-roll requirements) betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £44,648 a 1016% increase

(correct at 30/10/17)

The Road To Riches Weekend of October 28th-29th

Coming Up this weekend

- Football, Premier League matches include Manchester United v Tottenham Hotspur

- Racing, Flat meetings at Doncaster, Newbury and Wolverhampton. Over the jumps at Cheltenham and Kelso.

- Tennis, ATP Vienna and Swiss Indoor Opens and the WTA Finals in Singapore.

- Golf, the WGC-HSBC Champions in China and on the USPGA The Sanderson Farms Championship in Mississippi.

- Formula One, the Mexico Grand Prix.

NFL Week Eight

The cost for sign up for the regular season is now £80

Free tip

Pittsburgh Steelers @ Detroit Lions, NFL Week 8 (Sunday Night Football, 12.30am Monday GMT)

Le’Veon Bell is one of the best running backs in the NFL and importantly in a great situation given the offensive strategy of the Steelers. He’s an unusual runner with a lot of patience. He waits and waits on for a running lane to develop on rushing plays, which is a unique style in today’s game.

Bell held out all summer and reported to the team the week before the season started and understandably perhaps stated the season slowly. However he has since come on strong ande now ranks second in the NFL in total rushing yards with 684 on 169 carries. He has scored four TDs and is averaging 97 rushing yards per game. Bell is also a threat in the passing game, as he's totaled 33 receptions for 214 yards.

Bell has 56% of the Pittsburgh offensive touches, the only running back with over half of his team touches on the season and leads the league with 18 touches inside of the 10-yard line. He had 16 all of 2016. Finally he has 137 touches over the past four weeks, 40 more than the next closest player. Alongside his talent the offensive game plans he works in give him high volume opportunities on a weekly basis.

In this match up the Lions are without their top Defensive Tackle, Haloti Ngata, newly on injured reserve. Before their bye week they conceded over 50 points at New Orleans and this looks a prime opportunity for Bell to run successfully. Detroit is allowing 6.7 receptions per game to opposing backfields, 31st in the league

Typically Steelers quarterback Ben Roethlisberger’s performances away from home are less dependable than at Heinz field. Roethlisberger ranks fifth in the NFL in passing yards this season, going 151-for-244 for 1,745 yards and nine touchdowns. He has thrown eight interceptions, however, so a game plan that gets Bell 25+ touches looks assured.

In three of the last four games, close games with the Steelers ahead, Bell has had 35, 32 and 35 rushing attempts. The exception was the Jacksonville game where he had 15 carries in a game where the Steelers fell well behind and the game situation dictated throwing the ball, and I don’t expect that to be the case here. Overall Bell has 169 rushes in 7 games. His career season high over 16 games is 290 so he is on course to beat that comfortably.

When looking at the touchdown markets here, on the other side of the ball there are factors at play to restrict the scoring potential of the Lions offense. The Lions are likely to be without their number one receiver Golden Tate through injury and in any case Pittsburgh ranks second in the NFL in total defense, allowing 258.7 yards per game. The Steelers' pass defense has been especially strong, allowing an NFL-low 147 yards per game through the air and no more than 65 yards to any one receiver. Their secondary, bolstered by the arrival of Joe Haden (released by the Browns) is talented and deep.

The Lions running game is not that reliable either, certainly for punching in touchdowns in the rushing game in the red zone as it lacks a power back.

As usual I leave discussion of game lines and totals to Neil and instead look at the first touchdown market. A combination of the likely game script for the Steelers away from home and the match up here makes Bell look very attractive.

10 Points Le-Veon Bell first touchdown scorer Steelers at Lions 5/1 Bet365 and Skybet

It’s not All Black

The All Blacks won their fifth Rugby Championship victory in six years this Autumn and of the 20 Bledisloe Cup titles played for so far, New Zealand have won 15 of them.

Clearly the number one side in the world and on course to defend their rugby world cup title in Japan in 2019 their dominance has led to concerns about the competitiveness of International rugby at the very top and whether that might damage the global game.

Sport is a business where a monopoly is not a good thing and at times the All Blacks have looked like the Harlem Globetrotters travelling around looking for someone to play.

Obviously that is not what the IRB, television companies or All Black fans want. They want to be on the edge of their seats every time they go and watch them and not knowing what the result will be.

This isn’t even a vintage All Blacks side yet. Top level rugby now runs in four year cycles with coaching teams attempting to get their sides to peak at the World Cups. In the aftermath of the 2015 world cup the All Blacks entered a rebuilding phase with key retirements such as Richie McCaw and the loss of a number of players to Northern Hemisphere club rugby.

With the introduction of young players there have been some teething problems. The failure to beat the British Lions in the summer over a three test series was a big surprise and then Australia came within two minutes of beating them in Dunedin in September. Then last weekend Australia did the almost unthinkable and beat the All Blacks for the first time in eight games and only the second time in nineteen games.

Even with the Bledisloe Cup decided meaning the game was a “dead rubber” and facing an All Blacks side with six of their first choice XV unavailable, it had the feeling of a important match and certainly an important result for global rugby. Australia, an improving side from the depths of 2016 when beaten 3-0 at home by England, can look to facing the All Blacks as rivals rather than whipping boys

In the short term the result is probably bad news for the Northern Hemisphere sides New Zealand now travel to face on their Autumn tour. “We’ll use the hurt to grow,” coach Steve Hansen said. “A lot of these guys it’s probably their first loss in an All Black jersey. It’s an experience you don’t wash away. You learn your lessons from it and we’ll become a better team for it”

Longer term no one doubts that the players being blooded now won’t be world beaters come 2019. Reiko Ioane for example has nine tries in his first ten internationals. Damian McKenzie at full back is an exciting runner and in the absence of the concussed Beauden Barrett has gained value high pressure goal-kicking experience just to name two stars introduced to international rugby over the past year.

For now though perhaps next time the All Blacks face a top side we can go into the match thinking “will they win?” rather than “how much will they win by?”

Brodders Football Analysis

Sign up to Brodders match analysis and recommended bets here for £50 a month. You are free to cancel at any time.

This week Brodders published an in depth ante post Champions League write up covering outrights/ groups/ goal-scorer bets

Long term profit over more than three years. Following all bets subscribers are winning £21,490 (£10 a point, average bet £150) +ROI 4.01% (correct at 01/09/17)

Bookmaker reviews and advice

Getting the best price available is very important for all those who take their betting seriously.

Please open an account with all those bookmakers on the page on this link that you do not already have an account with using the links provided.

There are literally hundreds of pounds on offer from bookmakers just for signing up through Bettingemporium.com

Betting Emporium results

The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS

If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £38,026.90 All bets have an ROI +3.95%

A £4000 bank (see FAQ re bank-roll requirements) betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £42,026.90 an 951% increase

(correct at 01/09/17)

The Road to Riches Weekend of 21st-22nd October

Coming Up this weekend

- Football, Premier League matches include Everton v Arsenal and Tottenham v Liverpool.

- Racing, Flat meetings at Ascot, Catterick and Wolverhampton. Over the jumps at Ffos Las, Market Rasen and Stratford.

- Tennis, ATP Opens: the Kremlin Cup, European Open in Antwerp, Stockholm Open and Luxembourg Open .

- Golf, on the USPGA The CJ Cup at Nine Bridges, South Korea. On the European Tour the Valderrama Masters in Spain.

- Rugby Union, the second round of the 2017-18 European Rugby Champions Cup. Australia v New Zealand Bledisloe Cup in Brisbane.

- Formula One, the US Grand Prix in Austin,Texas.

NFL Week Seven

The cost for sign up for the regular season is now £80

Free tip

Wasps v Harlequins, European Champions Cup Rugby Sunday 5.30pm

Wasps were on the wrong end of some harsh scheduling with a five-day turnaround from an away loss at Saracens in the Premiership for their opening match in the competition at Ulster last Friday night. They have been suffering from a long injury list, which was promptly extended by three more players during the first half in Belfast including the first choice hooker with a dislocated thumb.

A reminder from my competition preview that there is less depth in Aviva Premiership squads this year and increased incidence of injuries is more important than ever. Under an unchanged salary cap, about which the clubs are unhappy, there is upward pressure on player salaries (competition from France, notably) and sides Wasps included have had to cut their cloth and make some tough decisions on releasing squad players. So when they then are without 5-8 players it is going to impact on areas like bench depth.

Ulster’s won 19-9 on a miserable night, which places some importance on Wasps’ home encounter with Harlequins this weekend. Harlequins have already won at the Ricoh this season, 24-21 in mid-September and they are going to have to again after their 34-27 home defeat by the debutants La Rochelle last Saturday.

That game was Quins’ first foray into Europe’s top competition after an absence of two seasons and a familiar tale unfolded. They had lots of ambition, some brilliance but also flakiness and ultimately a defeat against that rare French animal, a side that likes playing away from home.

This game, weather allowing, should be high scoring with attack the strength of both and I think it will be far closer than current odds for the game imply. Best prices are Wasps 1/5 Harlequins 7/2 and Harlequins are +10 on the point handicap. +10 might be my favoured bet but we are after a bit more here. I just don’t think Quins are a 7/2 shot in the game against injury hit opposition.

10 points Harlequins to beat Wasps 2017/18 Champions Cup Pool 1: 7/2 Bet365, William Hill

Get Lucky

Psychologists believe that the human brain understates the influence of luck on events. This can be explained by the theory of hindsight bias in which once something has happened our brains naturally create a narrative to explain it. The brain undervalues the abstract role of luck and instead apportions disproportionate value to actual events.

This bias is evident in sport among those who have a vested interest in the outcome of a game. Fans of teams who have won are less likely to claim their team was "lucky" than fans of teams who have lost are to claim their team was "unlucky".

The influence of luck on a sport is determined by obvious variables such as the number of players, their respective abilities to influence the game, the opportunities to score and the way the game is scored and by random variables such as the weather and pitch conditions.

The way sports effectively manage the influence of luck across a season is through the number of matches played. The more matches there are the larger the sample size, the narrower the margin of error between the actual results and the true variance of the teams, and the fairer the league becomes.

The sabermetrician Tom Tango used a methodology to estimate the role of luck in different sporting leagues. The equation on which this method is built states that the observed variance between teams in a league is the product of variance explained by skill and variance explained by luck.

He calculated the observed variance between teams (the standard deviation of win-loss records for each team) and imagined an "all-luck world" estimating the contribution of luck based on the number of matches per team per season. By dividing the observed variance by the variance explained by luck he estimated the extent to which the variance is influenced by luck. As you would expect as the number of matches played in a league increases, the variance explained by luck decreases.

The results of applying Tango's methodology to recent seasons in major sports are as follows, over 2014-16:

EPL (38 matches per team): 27% Variance explained by luck (VEL)

NBA (82 matches per team) 13% VEL

NFL (16 matches per team) 46% VEL

MLB (162 matches per team) 14% VEL

And within cricket

IPL (14 matches per team) 80% VEL

T20 Blast (14 matches per team ) 72% VEL

T20 cricket is currently highly susceptible to luck. The small number of teams in T20 leagues concentrates talent and narrows the range of win-loss records.

Using Tango's method it is possible to estimate the number of matches per team required by a league for the influence of luck to be less than that of the influence of skill. To give two examples, the "magic number" for the IPL is 56 and for the T20 Blast it is 36. To cricket these are big (unfeasible) numbers hence T20 remains a high variance format for betting.

Brodders Football Analysis

Sign up to Brodders match analysis and recommended bets here for £50 a month. You are free to cancel at any time.

This week Brodders published an in depth ante post Champions League write up covering outrights/ groups/ goal-scorer bets

Long term profit over more than three years. Following all bets subscribers are winning £21,490 (£10 a point, average bet £150) +ROI 4.01% (correct at 01/09/17)

Bookmaker reviews and advice

Getting the best price available is very important for all those who take their betting seriously.

Please open an account with all those bookmakers on the page on this link that you do not already have an account with using the links provided.

There are literally hundreds of pounds on offer from bookmakers just for signing up through Bettingemporium.com

Betting Emporium results

The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS

If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £38,026.90 All bets have an ROI +3.95%

A £4000 bank (see FAQ re bank-roll requirements) betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £42,026.90 an 951% increase

(correct at 01/09/17)

The Road To Riches Weekend of 14th -15th October

Coming Up this weekend

- Football, The Premier League returns after the international break including Liverpool v Manchester United.

- Racing, Flat meetings at Newmarket, York and Kempton. Chepstow and Hexham over the jumps.

- Tennis, ATP Shanghai Masters and Opens in Linz, Hong Kong and Tianjin.

- Golf, on the USPGA the CIMB Classic in Kuala Lumpur. On the European Tour the Italian Open in Milan.

- Rugby Union, the start of the 2017-18 European Rugby Champions Cup.

NFL Week Six!

The cost for sign up for the regular season is now £80

Free tip

The Cesarewitch, Newmarket 3.40pm Saturday by Neil Channing

The Cesarewitch is nearly as hard to spell as it is to pick the winner but despite the fact it's wide-open and there are 34-runners I feel that we have to have good bets if we stick to the firms that are offering each-way terms of 1/4 123456 or 1/5th 12345678. Historically the horses carrying less than 8 stone 12 lbs have done well in this and I'm going to focus on them to cut it down.

Generally speaking when betting each-way and getting a few places you need to back something solid, to know that it stays the trip and ought to run a race rather than ever risking a "win or come nowhere" kind of profile. I try to avoid horses who are unsuited by the ground, trying a big hike in trip, have a profile of win a race then three of four duck-eggs or massively up in class.

My shortlist was Dubawi Fifty who I may weaken and have a saver on, John Constable who I think is pretty solid and Withold.

Dubawi Fifty has been laid out for this race, he stays 2m really well, he is young and improving and the stable obviously think he has a good mark as they didn't dare run him and risk carrying more here so he has had a little break.

John Constable is way better over hurdles than on the flat but I would asssume that means he is really well handicapped on the flat. He is an absolute certain stayer and if you get a load of places it's hard to see how he doesn't fill one of them.

 Withold was bought for £170,000 about a year ago by a certain Mr T Bloom esquire. Tony moved the horse to Roger Charlton from Charlie Hills and it run about three weeks ago over 1m4f at Newbury where it finished 3rd. Some might say it could "bounce" here, (put in a bad performance after a long break and a good performance), but this is a trainer I trust to get things right. Going into Friday's racing Roger Charlton was on a run of 9 winners from 23 runners in  the last two weeks. The horse stays 2m well and it's a young and improving animal. I think it has the class and a bit up it's sleeve to win this and do it well. You have to fancy the ownere will back it so we shoudn't hang about.

 I can see the argument for having three bets here and I might weaken and do that but it is quite hard to get lots of bets on at the good place terms so I'll stick with just one.

 I'm having 11 Points each-way Withold at 12/1 1/4 123456 with Betfred and Bet365 (I would take 1/5th 12345678 only if I couldn't get 1/4 123456).

London calling

Unfortunately it remains the case that no NFL Wembley game has been contested by two sides with winning records, and so far this year we have had two poor spectacles witith Jacksonville beating Baltimore 44-7 and the Saints beating the Dolphins 20-3 but irrespective of that from sold-out NFL UK Live events over those weekends to sold out attendances the demand for the NFL over here is strong.

The NFL has had many initiatives outside the United States over the years, such as NFL Europe and international pre-season games, but none of those had the impact that London has.The number of people buying the NFL's GamePass product overseas (and a terribly temperamental product it is too this season), attendance (over 40,000 of the seats for all four of the NFL UK games were sold as part of a season ticket package), coverage on Sky Sports and increased focus by the BBC on the NFL are all indicators of sustained growth.

The NFL's ratings in the United States aren't quite what they used to be. While that may be a blip, even if they do start to go up again, it is unlikely to be the type of growth that really moves the needle toward the NFL's revenue growth goals. That's not the case internationally and it is why the NFL is planning its next moves not only in London but other locations such as Mexico, Germany and China.

London will get its own team eventually. While it may not happen any time soon and there are logistical hurdles (tax rates and time zones being the main two) that still need to be overcome, the growth of the game outside the US to this point has been so robust that it's easy to imagine London hosting a team full time at some point.

It will probably take an open-minded owner who finds himself in a difficult stadium situation in his current market, but certainly the economic opportunity of being the only NFL team in Europe would be very appealing to any owner focused on the bottom line.The UK market has proven it is fervent and viable which is a big step in that direction.

Until then, I can continue to amuse myself by trying to identify all 32 teams jerseys on the walk from the station to the stadium and, as happened to me after one of the recent games, will overhear two female NFL fans  talk about their fantasy teams on the tube afterwards.

Brodders Football Analysis

Sign up to Brodders match analysis and recommended bets here for £50 a month. You are free to cancel at any time.

This week Brodders published an in depth ante post Champions League write up covering outrights/ groups/ goal-scorer bets

Long term profit over more than three years. Following all bets subscribers are winning £21,490 (£10 a point, average bet £150) +ROI 4.01% (correct at 01/09/17)

Bookmaker reviews and advice

Getting the best price available is very important for all those who take their betting seriously.

Please open an account with all those bookmakers on the page on this link that you do not already have an account with using the links provided.

There are literally hundreds of pounds on offer from bookmakers just for signing up through Bettingemporium.com

Betting Emporium results

The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS

If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £38,026.90 All bets have an ROI +3.95%

A £4000 bank (see FAQ re bank-roll requirements) betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £42,026.90 an 951% increase

(correct at 01/09/17)

The Road to Riches Weekend of 7th-8th October

Coming Up this weekend

- Football, The Premier League international break. England play Lithuania on Sunday in their final 2018 World Cup Qualifying match.

- Racing, Flat meetings at Ascot, Newmarket, Redcar and Wolverhampton, plus Fontwell Park over the jumps.

- Tennis, ATP China Open in Beijing and Japan Open in Tokyo. .

- Golf, on the USPGA the Safeway Open at the Silverado resort in California. On the European Tour the Alfred Dunhill Links at St Andrews.

- Formula One, the Japanese Grand Prix at Suzuka.

-.Rugby Union, the final matches in the 2017 Rugby Championship.South Africa v New Zealand in Cape Town and Argentina v Australia in Mendoza.

NFL Week Five!

After four weeks of the NFL season these are Neil’s figures for bets so far.

Points bet 440, points won+180.6 ROI +41.05%

The cost for sign up for the regular season is now £80

Free tip

European Rugby Champions Cup 2017-18

The 2017-18 ERCC begins on next week and concludes with the final in Bilbao next May. Saracens are the defending champions, having won their second successive title last season and they are favourites this year too.

The format is as in recent seasons. There are five pools, five winners and three best runners up make the quarter finals, seeded by best record in the group stages. The four group winners with the best records get home advantage for the quarter finals.

The pools are as followsl. The key thing to note here is that there are three extremely tough groups:

1 Wasps, La Rochelle, Ulster, Harlequins

One of the two “softer” looking pools, minus a French powerhouse

2 Saracens, Clermont Auvergne, Ospreys, Northampton

This pool contains last season’s winners plus the runners up in three of the last five years Clermont

3 Exeter, Leinster, Montpellier, Glasgow

A tough pool containing the Aviva and Pro 12 champions, the leaders of the new Pro 14 and an extremely well funded top French side

4 Munster, Racing92, Leicester, Castres

One of the easier pools, with the weakest of the French sides in Castres, a transitional English side in Leicester and a Racing side that were eliminated in the pool last year

5 Toulon, Scarlets, Bath, Benetton

Three contenders here led by Toulon, three times ERCC winners in recent years, the defending Pro 12 champions from Wales and a developing Bath side

Outright Odds are

Saracens 5/2

Toulon 7/1

Clermont 8/1

Leinster 9/1

Montpellier 12/1

Wasps 12/1

Munster 12/1

Racing92 16/1

Bar 25/1

A structural point to note is that a number of the higher profile home union players in the home unions have played through the summer for the Lions in New Zealand. Squad depth is going to be extremely important particularly after the six nations where attrition rates are likely to be high. English clubs operate a tight salary cap, and there is upward pressure on player salaries (competition from France, notably). Squad depth in this environment is not what it was for several English teams and Saracens, albeit best placed to withstand the trend, look very short to “three-peat” this season .

The key to ante-post value here is to try to find a team in one of the two weaker groups where it is less likely that teams will be taking points off each other and therefore where the fall back of being one of the three best runners up is more likely than a group where there are three genuine contenders

These two groups are Pools 1 and 4 headed by Wasps and Munster and my focus is on Munster.

Munster topped their pool last year with five wins out of six, beat Toulouse at home in the quarter finals and lost at Saracens in the semi-final. Their pool this time is winnable.

In the last couple of years there has been a resurgence in fortunes, after five plus years in the doldrums, for the two main Irish provinces. Leinster and Munster have been at or near the top of the Pro 12/14 and reaching the knockout stages of the ERCC again.

Munster have a fierce home advantage at Thormond Park at Limerick and are a strong side whose core (Murray, Stander, O’Mahoney ) are world class players. A very competitive side that I think will win their group and obtain a home quarter final.

From there if course its impossible to predict if the path to a final would have to run through a French team or Saracens away (as it did last season) but having one of the more comfortable looking groups bodes well for a high seeding and home advantage for as long as possible.

10 points each way Munster to win the 2017-18 European Champions Cup 14/1 William Hill (1/2 1,2) 12/1 generally (Betfred and Bet365 offer half the odds too,some firms offering 1/3 the odds)

Ashes to Ashes?

With the end of the English domestic cricket season comes the announcement of the Ashes tour squad and excitement about the cricketing winter ahead this despite a very poor record in Australia having lost 9 of the last 11 series there.

Of course for England anticipation has been overtaken by anxiety concerning Ben Stokes’ prospects of playing on the tour following his Bristol fracas and even if he does play concern about the make up of the squad.

For all England’ strengths which we could summarise as:

• Top quality seam bowling with Anderson and Broad
• Two world class batsman in Cook and Root
• A terrific lower middle order comprising Stokes (hopefully), Bairstow and Ali

The issues surrounding England's top order batting have been discussed ad infinitum through a period where Cook has had a slew of opening partners and the side has slumped to 50-3 or worse in approximately 40% of their last 60 test innings.

The fact is that there was no good option for the slots at 2,3 and 5 in the batting order and the result is that the squad has been described as “the weakest party sent down under from these shores” with the batting selections “a lucky dip”

Whilst at least Stoneman and Malan are the men in possession of the place and showed some promise during the West Indies series the selection of James Vince was a real “rub your eyes and double check” moment. He had seven Tests in the summer of 2016 and averaged only 19 without a single 50 and averaged under 35 in the Championship this summer. His selection is a hunch at best.

Meanwhile this is Gary Ballance’s fourth try in a Test squad. In his past 13 Tests, he averages 19. Time and again, batsmen are promoted from county cricket with technical flaws that are exposed after only one or two innings in the Test arena. Ballance’s issue is the full straight ball. Vince’s is the swinging ball outside off stump.

In truth, though, it is hard to come up with alternative names and it is not only the selection of the batsmen that leaves questions to be answered. The choice of uncapped 20-year-old leg-spinner Mason Crane is strange too while In the fast bowling England look short of genuine pace for hard pitches they will encounter this winter. Mark Wood was passed over on fitness grounds yet they didn’t select Liam Plunkett their tallest potentially nastiest bowler in the likely conditions. Selecting Woakes, Ball and Overton to back up the “big two” looks a bit samey. Ideal for Trent Bridge in May, less so Brisbane in November

In the aftermath of the Stokes affair and the squad selection England were pushed out to 3/1 to win the Ashes this winter and 5/2 to win that first test in Brisbane and indeed it will look a very tough task indeed if Stokes is missing, a vital player for two reasons a) He lengthens the batting order and can counter-attack after the usual poor starts and b) he is a genuine fourth seamer/fifth bowler. There is no easy replacement that can bat 5-6 and potentially take 10-15 wickets in the series too. The name most often mentioned in the last week? Samit Patel, who is the very opposite of a like for like replacement for Stokes.

Now all that said, Australia are not without problems either. They too have two world class batsmen in Smith and Warner but the rest of the top six is in a transitional phase. They also have top quality fast bowling to spare in Starc, Hazlewood, Cummins and others but already Pattinson has been ruled out through injury and they don’t have a match winning spinner themselves or England’s late order batting firepower.

That is not to say that England are worth empting the wallet for at 3/1. A lot would have to go right for Messrs Stoneman, Vince and Malan for that to be a feasible option, but Australia have their issues too. What this might lead to is a fun series with two flawed teams battling for ascendancy and game by game betting opportunities.

Brodders Football Analysis

Sign up to Brodders match analysis and recommended bets here for £50 a month. You are free to cancel at any time.

This week Brodders published an in depth ante post Champions League write up covering outrights/ groups/ goal-scorer bets

Long term profit over more than three years. Following all bets subscribers are winning £21,490 (£10 a point, average bet £150) +ROI 4.01% (correct at 01/09/17)

Bookmaker reviews and advice

Getting the best price available is very important for all those who take their betting seriously.

Please open an account with all those bookmakers on the page on this link that you do not already have an account with using the links provided.

There are literally hundreds of pounds on offer from bookmakers just for signing up through Bettingemporium.com

Betting Emporium results

The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS

If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £38,026.90 All bets have an ROI +3.95%

A £4000 bank (see FAQ re bank-roll requirements) betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £42,026.90 an 951% increase

(correct at 01/09/17)