Weekly Articles "Road to Riches" by Rich 'Tighty' Prew

The Road to Riches Weekend of 26th-27th August

Posted on 24 Aug 2017 09:06 in Weekly Articles "Road to Riches" by Rich 'Tighty' Prew

Coming Up this weekend

- Football, Premier League matches include Liverpool v Arsenal and Manchester United v Leicester City

- Racing, Flat meetings at Chester, Newmarket, Redcar, Windsor and York. Over the jumps at Cartmel.

- Tennis, ATP Winston-Salem, Connecticut and Louisville International Opens ahead of the start of the US Open at Flushing Meadow on Monday.

- Golf, USPGA the Northern Trust Open and on the European Tour the Made in Denmark event.

- Formula One, the Belgian Grand Prix at Spa

- Cricket, the second test between England and West Indies at Headingley.

- Rugby Union, the second weekend of the Rugby Championship with New Zealand v Australia and Argentina v South Africa.

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Two NFL Ante post reports have been published “NFL 2017 Season Outright and Divisional Preview” and NFL 2017 Season Sub Markets” which are FREE to read and can be found here

Coming up on Betting Emporium

£100	NFL 2017 - Neil's picks (weeks 1-17) regular season

See what Joe Beevers has to say about 'Beat the Streak' at i-pools. The chance to win £1,000,000 for a fiver!

http://www.bettingemporium.com/pages/view/beat-the-streak-at-i-poolscouk-and-win-1000000

Free tip

The Betfred Ebor Handicap York Saturday 3pm by Neil Channing

After all the rain that fell early on Wednesday some people were starting to look for soft ground horses for the big Saturday races. The going was fairly soft on day one but there hasn't been a drop of rain since and the ground ought to be a little closer to good to firm than good by the time they run the Ebor. From a draw point of view people often talk about a high draw being a bad and needing a good low draw but in recent years it's been way better to have a double-figure draw.

The going slightly puts me off a few of the shorter priced runners like Flymetothestars, Ivan Grozny and Magic Circle and I thought I'd also avoid those at the top of the weights as they tend to struggle in these longer distance handicaps. I found myself looking a little further down the weights for a horse I was sure would stay the 1m6f, who would like good ground but might prefer it on the faster side of good and who isn't drawn in single figures.

That gave me a shortlist of Seamour, Wild Hacked, Dubka, Nakeeta, Arch Villain, Cohesion and Star Storm.

Seamour was 5th in this last year and I could see him winning if the ground still has some juice in it. He is pretty exposed though and it's more likley he just finished 3rd to 6th.

Wild Hacked is an improving younger horse but I can't back him each-way here when we don't know for sure if he'll stay.

Dubka was a painful one for me at Goodwood. I played pretty big win-only that day and I thought we'd got it. She goes on any ground although she maybe prefers a bit of cut, she definitely stays and although she has a really wide draw I think that will be fine and she is ridden by the excellent Josephine Gordon. She'll do for me.

Nakeeta has properly climbed through the ratings in his career. We know he stays, any ground seems Ok and he is also drawn wide. Again another I could see running a solid race but not one that ought to have enough secrets from the handicapper.

Arch Villain is pretty ancient but he had whole years off with some issues. Similar to Nakeeta in that he definitely stays and goes on any ground but again has rapidly climbed the ratings in recent years and now has to defy another whole year off.

Cohesion wouldn't be one for me. I quite like trainer David Bridgewater over jumps but I'd be taking a chance backing a potential non-stayer who mostly has shown all-weather form and who will need a career-best here.

Star Storm's trainer James Fanshawe usually has horses that develop over the year and I'm pleased to see him have a couple of winners this week. The horse tried two miles on the all-weather before Christmas and he got beat as favourite without looking like the distance was an issue. Since then they gave him a break and he ran 2nd at Ascot in a decent handicap where he just bumped into one before being pretty unlucky in the Duke of Edinburgh stakes at Royal Ascot. Those last two runs were over 1m4f and both times it looked like he wanted further. I think he's very solid and he'll like the drying ground and surely be close at the business end.

I'm having 6 Points each-way Dubka at 12/1 1/4 1234 with Ladbrokes and Corals.

I'm having 9 Points each-way Star Storm at 14/1 1/4 1234 with Hills, Bet365 and others.

Walking Wounded

At this rate the US Open will soon resemble a tennis version of “Casualty”. Added to various injuries amongst top ranked players such as Novak Djokovic’s elbow and Andy Murray’s hip, recently joined by Stan Wawrinka’s knee, Kei Nishikori’s wrist and only yesterday Milos Raonic's wrist we can add Roger Federer’s back, hurt in Montreal a few weeks ago. All it needs is for Rafael Nadal, world number one again despite losing at or before the quarter-finals in his last three tournaments, to pull up and we will have the most unusual looking list of contenders in a Men’s grand slam since before the emergence of the “big four” a decade ago. For example look at the men's seedings: Zverev 4, Cilic 5 and Thiem 6.

Federer played in over 65 consecutive grand slam events up to 2016. The effortless backhand, the smooth movement across the court and the textbook service action all seemed designed to put the least amount of strain possible on his body. Then he missed last season’s French Open after hurting his knee running a bath for his twins. Now he has had a recent injury suffered on court.

It is not only veterans suffering. Nick Kyrgios is 22 years old and already has an alarming medical record. He withdraw from four consecutive events (Queen’s, Wimbledon, Washington and Canada) retiring three times with his hip injury before reaching the Cincinnati final last week.

The ATP Schedule is punishing and of the currently injured players Nishikori played 79 matches last season, Djokovic 74 and Wawrinka 64. Murray,hoping to play in New York, managed 87 matches in 2016.

From the World Tour Finals in November to the Gulf tournaments in January that precede the Australian Open the tennis off-season lasts six weeks. Murray is usually to be found accepting “sports personality of the year” in Miami at an off-season training programme where he drives himself forward to be yet better conditioned for the upcoming season and he effectively has no off-season.

The ATP schedule has long been a long annual grind but it is only in the last five years that authorities have compiled a comprehensive database of the types and numbers of injuries among players. One clear trend is an upsurge in hip damage to right-handers who strain from side to side in endless exchanges of ground strokes. Murray and Kyrgios are two examples of this.

Part of this relates to the increasing homogeneity of courts, with better drainage making grass courts play like old hard courts with less serve-and-volley and longer baseline rallies. Murray is essentially worn down by repetitive strain. His is a game based on defence, running and retrievals from yards behind the baseline.

We are likely in future seasons to see top men moderate their schedules, build in rest periods between major events and try to aid their longevity at the top levels of the sport.

Brodders Football Analysis

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There are literally hundreds of pounds on offer from bookmakers just for signing up through Bettingemporium.com

Betting Emporium results

The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS

If you had bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since our launch in Feb 2013 you would be winning + £38,652.30.

All bets have an ROI +4.2%.

A £4000 bank (see FAQ re bank-roll requirements) betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £42,652 an 966% increase

(correct at 11/07/17)

The Road to Riches Weekend of 19th-20th August

Posted on 17 Aug 2017 12:24 in Weekly Articles "Road to Riches" by Rich 'Tighty' Prew

Coming Up this weekend

- Football, Premier League matches include Tottenham Hotspur v Chelsea on Sunday.

- Racing, Flat meetings at Bath, Doncaster, Newbury, Newmarket and Ripon. Over the jumps at Market Rasen and Perth.

- Tennis, ATP Western and Southern Open in Cincinnati.

- Golf, USPGA Wyndham Championship and on the European Tour the Paul Lawrie Matchplay Golf.

- Cricket, the first test between England and West Indies at Edgbaston, the first day-night Test in this country and the final matches of the Nat West T20 Blast Group Stages.

- Rugby Union, the start of the Rugby Championship with Australia v New Zealand and South Africa v Argentina on Saturday.

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Today I have published the first of two NFL Ante post reports: “NFL 2017 Season Outright and Divisional Preview” which is FREE to read and can be found here

Coming up on Betting Emporium

£100	NFL 2017 - Neil's picks (weeks 1-17) regular season
£50	US Open Tennis 28th Aug - 10th Sep 2017

See what Joe Beevers has to say about 'Beat the Streak' at i-pools. The chance to win £1,000,000 for a fiver!

http://www.bettingemporium.com/pages/view/beat-the-streak-at-i-poolscouk-and-win-1000000

Free Tip

Rugby Championship Australia v New Zealand Saturday 19^th August

10.30am Kick Off BST, Sydney

This game sees the start of the 2017 Rugby Championship, played between the four major southern hemisphere teams.

Sonny Bill Williams returns to the New Zealand starting line-up for Saturday's Rugby Championship opener against Australia. Williams, who was red-carded in the second Test of the British and Irish Lions series, completed his four-game suspension earlier this month and returns to the All Blacks midfield. Damian McKenzie and Liam Squire were the surprise selections in Steve Hansen's match-day 23, the New Zealand coach making six changes to the team that drew the third Test against the Lions. Five of those come in the backs with McKenzie selected at full-back. Ben Smith and Rieko Ioane are named on the wing while Crotty partners Williams at centre.

New Zealand are seeking a fourth successive Rugby Championship title while they have held the Bledisloe Cup since 2003.

This may not be a vintage New Zealand team yet but they are undoubtedly favourites to win another rugby championship despite ongoing transitions at several positions in the team.

What is clear from the latest Australian squad is that coach Mchael cheika is keen to bring a freshness to the side, and has handed out squad call-ups to 11 uncapped players, seven of whom have never experienced a squad call-up at all. Some experienced players such as Cooper and Hgginbotham have been discarded too

The 2017 Super Rugby campaign has been a tough one for the Australian franchises. For the first time in history, the Australian sides failed to pick up a single victory over a New Zealand franchise during a regular-Super Rugby campaign, losing all 25 games. Against the South African sides, who have not been at their strongest either they lost ten times only picking up four victories, while they also lost more times against the Jaguares than they won: losing three times and winning twice.

Out of a total of 45 fixtures against the Kiwi, South African and Argentinian sides, the five Australian franchises won six, drew once and lost 38.

Added to this, Australia lost to a Scotland side in Sydney minus Stuart Hogg, Greig Laidlaw and Tommy Seymour in June. Cheika can still call on the talent of Israel Folau, Michael Hooper, Dane Haylett-Petty, Will Genia, Bernard Foley and Stephen Moore but they are surrounded by a lot less experience in the team and squad..

Since losing the 2015 World Cup final to New Zealand, Australia have won fewer than half of their Tests. This upcoming Rugby Championship is pivotal for Cheika’s team and could go some way to determining the direction Australian rugby will take over the next few years.

New Zealand understandably are prohibitive favourites for this game at 1/9 outright, Australia 6/1. Australia are 16 point handicap underdogs at 10/11 generally.

My idea of a bet here is in the winning margin market, where New Zealand can be backed to win by 11-20 points at 11/4 with Betfair Sportsbook and 12/5 with Coral.

8 points New Zealand to win by 11-20 points 16/5 Betfair Sportsbook 11/4 Ladbrokes 12/5 Coral.

Expectations

Already used by many clubs, analysts and bettors for several years the Expected Goals metric from Opta is moving into the mainstream, featuring on Match of the Day this season.

An expected goal shows the percentage likelihood of a player scoring from a position on the pitch and shows how many goals a player or a team should have scored based on the chances they had in a game or over the course of a season. Each chance is ascribed a 'quality value' (xG) based on thousands of chances analysed by Opta over the history of the Premier League. The higher that figure, with one the maximum value, the more likely a chance will be converted. xG is a way of establishing whether a player is scoring more or less goals than his chances should dictate. .

Each of last season's top eight premier league goal-scorers, the exception being Sergio Aguero, scored more goals than their expected goals would suggest. Harry Kane scored 29 goals, 10 goals more than expected by the quality of chances given to him or created by him.

Opta's key xG factor are:

Distance from goal
Angle of the shot
Was it a shot or a header?
Has the player just gone around an opponent?
Was it a one on one or were defenders involved?
What was the assist like? (e.g. long ball, pull-back, cross, through ball)
In what part of the game did the chance occur? (e.g. open play, direct free-kick, corner kick)
Is it a rebound?

Expected goals are useful when trying to anticipate turning points and reversions to mean ahead of betting markets, and in counteracting media/fan over-reactions to short term results.

Juventus in 2015-16 are an example cited by the BBC. They won only three of their first 10 games but analysis shows they were vastly outperforming that level of results. When results turned for the better and “G” became more correlated with “xG” they eventually won the title.

It can help when looking at both ends of the pitch, not only expected goals but expected goals against can be analysed. A team may be good or bad defensively, but might be doing better or worse in actual goals conceded than the xA statistic shows us

It is of course very early in this Premier League season but we can look at a few of last weekend’s games to illustrate what we might be looking for:

Southampton Swansea finished 0-0. We could see with our own eyes on highlights that Southampton created a lot of chances. The xG for two sides was Southampton 2.2 Swansea 0.3

Chelsea-Burnley? Down to 10 men early Chelsea were 3-0 down and lost 3-2. The xG? 1.3 and 0.7 respectively. Nothing to get too gloomy about for the home team, or too bullish about for the away team.

Crystal Palace-Huddersfield? Huddersfield won 3-0 but the xG? 0.9-0.6 (plus an own goal)

Everton-Stoke? 1-0 to Everton. Stoke? Their xG was lowest in the division over the weekend at 0.3 but Everton were only at 0.7 too

On Sunday, Newcastle and Tottenham began slowly and xG was well less than 1 for both teams in the first half. Then Newcastle were reduced to ten men and their xG understandably remained low. Tottenham’s leapt to 1.7.

Returning again to last season, and broadening out to a longer time frame the cumulative Expected goals for and against were as follows for last season's champions and this season's favourites:

Manchester City xG 79.4 xA (expected goals against) 28.4 xGD (expected goal difference) 51.1

Chelsea xG 64 xA 28.5 xGD 35.5

Statistics like this, over and above discounting what has happened in transfer market, help explain the bullishness for City this season that saw them go off around 2/1 to regain the title.

Brodders Football Analysis

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There are literally hundreds of pounds on offer from bookmakers just for signing up through Bettingemporium.com

Betting Emporium results

The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS

If you had bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since our launch in Feb 2013 you would be winning + £38,652.30.

All bets have an ROI +4.2%.

A £4000 bank (see FAQ re bank-roll requirements) betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £42,652 an 966% increase

(correct at 11/07/17)

The Road to Riches Weekend of 12th-13th August 2017

Posted on 10 Aug 2017 16:24 in Weekly Articles "Road to Riches" by Rich 'Tighty' Prew

Coming Up this weekend

- Football, the start of the Premier League season

- Racing, Flat meetings at Ascot, Ayr, Haydock, Lingfield, Newmarket and Redcar

- Tennis, ATP Rogers Cup in Montreal

- Golf, the USPGA Championship at Quail Hollow North Carolina

- Athletics, the final weekend of the World Championships in London

- Cricket, the penultimate weekend of the Nat West T20 Blast Group Stages.

Coming up on Betting Emporium

£100	NFL 2017 - Neil's picks (weeks 1-17) regular season
£50	US Open Tennis 28th Aug - 10th Sep 2017

See what Joe Beevers has to say about 'Beat the Streak' at i-pools. The chance to win £1,000,000 for a fiver!

http://www.bettingemporium.com/pages/view/beat-the-streak-at-i-poolscouk-and-win-1000000

Free Tip

Millwall v Bolton Wanderers Sky Bet Championship Saturday 3pm

Two promoted teams meet in the second league game of the season on Saturday. Both lost their opening games, Millwall 1-0 at Nottingham Forest and Bolton 3-2 at home to Leeds.

Off the pitch the two sides are very different. Millwall, who won the league one play-offs, punch above their weight as they are financially very thrifty. Bolton are still struggling with the impact of over-spending under previous regimes, are under a transfer embargo (and facing a recently adjourned winding up petition) and the Football League has put salary cap and maximum squad size (23 professional players) restrictions on the club as part of their rules on clubs under embargo.

Bolton played pre-season with, to some social media amusement, up to ten trialists per game as they shopped around to find bargains.

In Bolton’s squad of 23 they lost three of their better players to injury in week one. Their star player ,midfielder Josh Vela, was ruled out long-term with an ankle injury, veteran centre back David Wheater had to play with a back injury and has been sent to a specialist this week and winger Sammy Amoebi, a star of the promotion campaign, was injured too. Bolton may have to seek permission from the Football League to add a player to their quota.

The squad is so thin that midweek in the League Cup, four first year scholars played. It is set to be a very long season for manager Phil Parkinson under the operating constraints.

Of course the embargo, squad restrictions and financial struggles are well known, so what is the angle here? Well almost every team in the division can be expected to be odds on at home to Bolton with the visitors in such a state of flux, with the possible exception of a Burton Albion.

So why for Saturday would Millwall be available at 21/20? It is, after all, a notoriously tough place to visit. The unfashionable nature of a promoted side with a low profile squad might be one reason. Millwall themselves are expected to struggle this season. They also lost at Forest a week ago.

This week, almost by accident, I found myself looking at the stats for that game. Millwall’s cumulative xG (expected goals) was calculated at 3.25, and Forest’s at 0.51 which the analyst who compiled the report suggested would mean an away win 92% of the time

The match was on Sky Sports and I went to watch the “highlights.” Forest won with one (cliché alert) “moment of magic”

I then read match reports and post match interviews

Nottingham Forest manager Mark Warburton said:

"Millwall were very good. They deserved something from the game. They were direct, they were effective. They won the first ball and created chances”.

Millwall manager Neil Harris said:

"We dominated the game against a really good Forest side. The players executed the game plan perfectly. We worked into good positions and created good chances. It was a top performance. “

I think Millwall should be odds on at home against Bolton as the almost the entire rest of the division would be.

10 points Millwall to beat Bolton Wanderers 11/10 Bet365 or Betfred.

A brave new dawn.

Last week the expansion of the Guinness Pro12 to 14 teams was confirmed for next season, following the addition of two South African franchises in the Cheetahs (from Bloemfontein) and the Kings (Port Elizabeth).

There has been consistent speculation for weeks that both South African outfits would join the competition run by the Celtic League, which currently includes four teams from Ireland and Wales plus two each from Scotland and Italy.

The South African Rugby Union, in agreement with SANZAAR, the governing body behind Super Rugby agreed to cut both sides from the tournament ahead of the 2018 season as part of a reduction from 18 to 15 teams..

A six-year deal has been agreed between SARU and the Pro12 with the inclusion of the South African teams handing the Pro12 a significant financial boost thanks to increased TV revenue of around £6 million per year.

The new 'Pro14' will see the teams split into two conferences of seven, made up of two sides from Ireland, two from Wales and one each from Scotland, Italy and South Africa.

The new Pro 14 is significant development in professional rugby, and could be the start of the game being structured by time zones, not hemispheres

Increasing frustration over the years from South African players and supporters regarding the travel times and time differencethat comes with playing in Super Rugby has often led to discussions over whether a competition with teams in Europe would be better for player welfare, given that for the majority of the year South Africa is only an hour's time difference ahead of the British Isles and Ireland.

Now with the arrival of the Cheetahs and Kings those theories can be put into practice, with the newcomers expected to play their overseas away fixtures in blocks to cut down on travel time back and forth between South Africa and Europe.

The Cheetahs and Kings are the only two South African sides to have never played in a Super Rugby final, finishing the current 2017 season in 13th and 11th place respectively. However, the Kings comfortably surpassed expectations in their second year back in the competition, winning six matches including a shock victory against the Waratahs in Sydney.

Meanwhile, the Cheetahs, despite being defensively suspect, have become one of the most attractive sides to watch in Super Rugby thanks to their dangerous wingers Raymond Rhule and Sergeal Petersen, who have both featured for South Africa within the last year.

Expectations for both sides will be low in their first season, as they adapt to new environments and styles of opponent. Adding them to the Pro12 marks a new chapter and adds a new level of interest to a league that has lagged behind the Aviva Premiership and France's Top 14.

New Pro 14 - significant development in professional rugby, could be the start of the game being structured by time zones, not hemispheres.

With little time delay for broadcasters, no jet lag and the promise of far more practical travel schedules, the Sharks, Stormers, Lions and Bulls may fancy a piece of this too. Super Rugby is in a state of flux and if rumours are to be believed the partnership between the big three southern hemisphere nations has soured somewhat. Whether it works remains to be seen,but the idea and ambition is laudable

For the old Pro 12, it looks well worth a shot. If it works, it might be a major step along a route where a final aim may be seeing South Africa play in the Six Nations.

Brodders Football Analysis

Long term profit over 3+ years. Following all bets subscribers are winning £21,013(£10 a point, average bet £150) +ROI 4.22% (correct at 11/07/17)

Euro & other Football by Brodders (monthly)	£50 Sign Up Here

Bookmaker reviews and advice

Getting the best price available is very important for all those who take their betting seriously.

Please open an account with all those bookmakers on the page on this link that you do not already have an account with using the links provided.

There are literally hundreds of pounds on offer from bookmakers just for signing up through Bettingemporium.com

Betting Emporium results

The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS

If you had bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since our launch in Feb 2013 you would be winning + £38,652.30.

All bets have an ROI +4.2%.

A £4000 bank (see FAQ re bank-roll requirements) betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £42,652 an 966% increase

(correct at 11/07/17)

The Road to Riches Weekend of 5th-6th August

Posted on 3 Aug 2017 15:17 in Weekly Articles "Road to Riches" by Rich 'Tighty' Prew

Coming Up this weekend

- Football, the start of the Sky Bet football Leagues seasons

- Racing, Flat meetings at Doncaster, the final day of Glorious Goodwood, Hamilton, Lingfield, Newmarket and Thirsk.

- Tennis, ATP Citi Open in Washington, ATP Mexico and ATP Kitzbuhel in Austria

- Golf, the World Golf Championships, WGC- Bridgestone Invitational at Firestone GC.

- Rugby Union, Super Rugby Final, Lions v Crusaders in Johannesburg on Saturday

- Cricket, the fourth Test between England and South Africa at Old Trafford.

Coming up on Betting Emporium

£100	NFL 2017 - Neil's picks (weeks 1-17) regular season
£50	US Open Tennis 28th Aug - 10th Sep 2017

Free Tip

US PGA Championship 2017

The final major championship of the year takes place next week at Quail Hollow Club, North Carolina, normally the home of the Wells Fargo Championship. Since the 2016 Wells Fargo tournament the course has undergone major renovation ahead of hosting its first major championship

Quail Hollow has produced some big name winners in the past including McIlroy ( x2), Tiger Woods and Fowler. It is the first major venue since Congressional in 2011 to be a regular PGA Tour host course. It is a 7,600 yard Par 71, a very typical PGA Championship venue where power will always be an advantage.

At the USPGA Y.E. Yang (2009), Martin Kaymer (2010), Keegan Bradley (2011), Jason Dufner (2013) Jason Day (2015) and Jimmy Walker (2016) all captured first-time Majors .All can hit the ball a long way as can Rory McIlroy who won this title in 2012 at Kiawah Island and 2014 at Valhalla. With winning player driving distances in the Wells Fargo at Quail Hollow measuring 291 yards, 321 yards, 334 yards, 306 yards, 286 yards, 303 yards and 314 yards since 2010 , that’s an obvious starting point for the type of player we are looking for.

There is a catch though.It is felt that the course changes could lead to higher scores because of thickened rough and a faster track. Jimmy Walker played the new course a few months ago and said

"We're used to playing here with rye grass everywhere. It has a potential, now with the pure Bermuda grass layout, to play really firm and really fast. The greens ought to be fast, and that's the biggest variable, I would think.”

With a course the length of Quail Hollow you'd expect driving distance to be key. However in reality any regular 290+ yard hitter cannot be ruled out, especially if they're straight hitters. The Bermuda grass thick rough here will act as a brake on the bombers. Greens in Regulation at Quail Hollow is the joint most important stat for winners here.

Looking further at variables we have to be aware of, 14 of the last 17 PGA Champions (82%) had already won a tournament in the season prior to winning the PGA Championship.

Since Firestone became the PGA ‘warm up’ in 2006, the winner of the USPGA haS always been in the Bridgestone field and has always finished in the top 22 of the tournament. The timing of this column means I am writing before the conclusion of the WGC-Bridgestone, so you can apply your own filter is the selection below doesn’t feature at all at Firestone!

The aim here once more is not to look at the top of the market but find value at a price hopefully with game characteristics that might suit the track, and relevant form.

Daniel Berger has six top 10 finishes this year, with a win at the Fedex St Jude Classic and two second places. His run of recent results is impressive with twelve rounds under 70 in 17 rounds at:

1st St Jude Classic

2nd Travelers Championship

Missed Cut US Open

5th John Deere Championship

Tied 27th The Open

A 300 yard driver, on the USPGA tour stats he’s top 30 in greens in regulation too and 12^th in birdie average this year.

He looks to have a game that suits the course (long, straight and can putt) and is a top 20 ranked player who flies just enough under the radar, for now, to be available at 66-1 each way.

Current each way odds in the market range from 5 places 1/4 to 6 places 1/5 with the possibility of enhanced terms next week as the marketing departments focus on the event

6 points each way Daniel Berger to win the USPGA Championship (80-1 Ladbrokes 1/4 1,2,3,4,5,6) 66/1 Bet Victor and William Hill 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6 or 66/1 Bet365 and Betfred 1/4 1,2,3,4,5

Extra Terrestrial

In June English cricket announced a record £1.1bn deal that sees the game return to the BBC for the first time in two decades. Sky and the BBC will share live content during a five-year deal that starts in 2020. The BBC will show live coverage of 10 matches in the new T20 competition, including the final, as well as two England T20 internationals. The BBC also won from Channel 5 the highlights of all England's men and women international fixtures and exclusive digital clips from all formats.

Sky won live rights to all England’s home international cricket, county cricket and women’s cricket. It beat BT Sport with a bid of £200m per year as the ECB successfully exploited the competition between the two broadcasters to more than double the £445m they earned from their last broadcast rights auction in 2012.

The rights deal has put cricket back in the top bracket of live rights in this country. The money will fund the new T20 competition, increased payments to the counties, grassroots initiatives and pay rises for the England players who will now demand a greater slice of cricket’s income.

The ECB put the rights on the market a year earlier than expected in order to complete the deal before the next round of Premier League football rights swallowed up budgets at Sky and BT Sport. The gamble has paid off with the ECB managing to persuade Sky to let go of exclusivity, allowing the board to re-launch cricket in 2020 and market its new tournament to a wider audience on the BBC.

The Sky deal brings in the money, and the BBC content will please the more traditional audience, but it is the digital clips the corporation can promote on a Facebook pages and other social media channels that will help the ECB reach the young audience it wants to attract to cricket.

It is apparent that the new T20 league with eight “franchise” teams is why the BBC has shown interest in cricket again.. T20 is an easier format to schedule for terrestrial broadcasters and the audience to understand. For a board launching a new product, the BBC is clearly the best platform.

The new competition is not popular with cricket’s ageing traditional county audience who are loyal to existing clubs and in many cases the current T20 Blast competition sells out but putting a new competition on free to air is a game changer. The non cricket fan will be exposed to it, for starters

England players will want to be part of those ten live games and as it will clash with international cricket the challenge for the board will be to try and maintain interest at the same time in test cricket. The worry is that Test match cricket will slide under the radar even more than it is now.

Pay talks with the players will now commence and clearly the ECB will not be immune to the sorts of issues that were to the fore in the recent Australian pay dispute. The central contracts with England cricketers run alongside the current television deal and expire in 2019. The ECB has already held talks with other sports to try to avoid the extra revenue going to players and agents.

For the counties the extra money is a chance to drive down debt in the game which currently stands at about £160m with interest payments draining them of cash. The broadcasters will be part of the decision making process for shaping the new T20 tournament and will have an input into team-names and locations. For the ECB’s commercial department the exposure on the BBC will help to sell sponsorships for the new tournament and attract new investors.

Brodders Football Analysis

Long term profit over 3+ years. Following all bets subscribers are winning £21,013(£10 a point, average bet £150) +ROI 4.22% (correct at 11/07/17)

Euro & other Football by Brodders (monthly)	£50 Sign Up Here

Bookmaker reviews and advice

Getting the best price available is very important for all those who take their betting seriously.

Please open an account with all those bookmakers on the page on this link that you do not already have an account with using the links provided.

There are literally hundreds of pounds on offer from bookmakers just for signing up through Bettingemporium.com

Betting Emporium results

The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS

If you had bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since our launch in Feb 2013 you would be winning + £38,652.30.

All bets have an ROI +4.2%.

A £4000 bank (see FAQ re bank-roll requirements) betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £42,652 an 966% increase

(correct at 11/07/17)

The Road to Riches: Weekend of 29th-30th July

Posted on 27 Jul 2017 10:36 in Weekly Articles "Road to Riches" by Rich 'Tighty' Prew

Coming Up this weekend

- Racing, Flat meetings at Ascot, Chester, Lingfield, Newcastle, Newmarket, Salisbury and York

- Tennis, ATP Atlanta Open and the ATP German Championships in Hamburg

- Golf, the RBC Canadian open and Porsche European Open in Germany.

- Rugby Union, Super Rugby Semi Finals, Crusaders v Chiefs and Lions v Hurricanes

- Cricket, the third Test between England and South Africa at The Oval.

- Formula One, the Hungarian Grand Prix.

Coming up on Betting Emporium

£100	NFL 2017 - Neil's picks (weeks 1-17) regular season
£50	US Open Tennis 28th Aug - 10th Sep 2017

Free Tip by Neil Channing:

Gigaset International Stakes, Ascot Saturday 3pm

The Gigaset International is a really classy handicap to be run at 3pm at Ascot on softish ground. With a big field we can expect the runners to split and I'm going to say that the two sides will have the edge and I'd like to take a chance on the far side, (low numbers), and ignore those people who bang on about where the pace is.

Fastnet Tempest, Remarkable, Makzeem and Viscount Barfield are all racing off a handicap mark which is lower than the mark the handicapper thinks they are worth as they were assessed prior to their recent runs. Of those four I'm going to ignore Fastnet Tempest despite the fact that I love the stable and I think he'll be fine on this trip and ground. I just think he is a bit short and I don't like taking a chance on first time blinkers at a shortish price in a big field. Viscount Barfield has definitely improved a bit since but he seems held by Fastnet Tempest so I'm going to rule them both out on the stands side.

On the far side I like Remarkable but I just prefer Makzeem who will go on any ground and who loves this trip. he will probably attempt to pick them off late having been just off the early lead and I think he is very solid.

Gossiping has massively improved this year and he is bred to be fine on this ground but I feel like he is too short considering this is a really classy race. He and Yuften also have the issue of being drawn in the middle which I hate. Flaming Spear runs for the owner who won this race last year and he is another who has massively improved this year. He is another that I think might find this a little tougher and it's not a huge price.

I feel like I've purchased Squats, it seems like I back him every time. He loves it here at Ascot, he loves seven furlongs and he is ok on all types of ground, although maybe he wants it a little closer to good to firm than good to soft. I'm a huge fan of the stable and with his low draw I have to take a chance at a big price.

I'm having 6 Points each-way Makzeem at 8/1 1/4 12345 with Betfair Sportsbook (or obviously 9/1 with Bet365 if you can).

I'm having 6 Points each-way Squats at 28/1 1/4 12345 with Bet365 (or obviously 28/1 1/4 12345 with Betfair Sportsbook if you can).

Peak Practice

Since the end of last season, Premier League transfer spending has passed £820m (gross, £470m net) with 35 days to go until the end of this transfer window. The two Manchester clubs account for over £250m of that net spend on their own. Total spend across the league will likely top £1bn well before the window closes. If anything illustrates the vast sums of money sloshing around in the game, it is this. There is a huge transfer from the pockets of consumers, via TV companies and then the clubs to the pockets of players and their agents in fees and salaries.

The new Sky and BT deals, running to 2019, were for £5.136 billionl, 83% higher than the previous deal and £11m per game.

A recent BBC survey found:

- Nearly half of fans say they have streamed a match online through an unofficial provider. Just over a third do so at least once a month and about one in five at least once a week. In the 18 to 34 age bracket, this leapt up to 65%.

- The main reasons include a friend/family member doing it and they just watch; the quality of the stream; and because sports TV packages are considered not good value for money.

- Just under a third of fans do not know whether it is illegal to stream live Premier League matches online from unofficial providers, but another third believe it is always illegal.

With any number of ways to watch games illegally, on PCs and tablets, or on the TV via Kodi, it appears that many people are now opting not to pay an expensive subscription to Sky and BT Sport. The viewing figures for Premier League football in 2016-17 were the lowest for seven seasons.

Some analysts ascribe this drop to the rise in popularity of cheaper streaming services, such as Netflix and Amazon, which with prices starting at £8 a month may be creating an expectation among consumers that pay-TV should be cheaper. They point to a demographic shift where people, especially younger groups, are reluctant to spend so much

On a Radio 5 Live phone-in on the subject, most callers who admitted to watching these streams were unrepentant, despite the host’s accusations of theft. One of the main points raised was that while the rest of the world can watch all Premier League games we can’t. So if your team are playing away, and everyone from Paris to Bogota can watch the game, why wouldn’t you, when the game is a couple of mouse clicks away?

Sky and BT are currently engaged in stamping out small fires, shutting down streaming sites and prosecuting Kodi box providers. This week the Premier League has been awarded a High Court order for the new 2017-18 season, which will help it combat the illegal streaming of games. The blocking order will require UK ISPs to prevent people from illegally accessing streams of its matches. A similar order was obtained for the final two months of the 2016-17 season. That saw more then 5,000 server IP addresses blocked that had previously been streaming Premier League content.

As the viewing market changes around them Sky has scrapped its numbered sports channels and replaced them with themed offerings focused on specific sports (led by football, golf and cricket) to energise viewers with a branding revamp and a cheaper viewing package two-thirds cheaper than current prices, a major shakeup of their strategy.

Sky hope to entice new pay-TV subscribers and the new strategy will allow Sky to charge £18 for its cheapest package. An aim might be to get reluctant to spend groups in on cheap packages and look to up-sell at a later date.

There are 10m freeview households, assumed to be budget conscious. Sky’s Now TV internet service broke the monthly sports subscription model on which the company built its business over more than two decades, offering pay-as-you-go sport. Now TV sports day passes have proved popular for fans looking to dip in for one-off big events. More and more Freeview households are starting to spend on pay-TV in some way, 45% take a subscription service but it is mostly Netflix or Amazon, to date.

If these moves,both strategi and legal, don’t succeed in arresting the viewing decline, then when the next TV deal is negotiated the halcyon days of summer 2017 with £50m full backs and £30m uncapped goalkeepers may be over. At which point this week’s prophecies from Daniel Levy (“the spending by other Premier League clubs is unsustainable.”) and Jose Mourinho ("some clubs are paying "too much"and are creating a "very strange and out-of-control" market.") will come to pass. Until then, footballers and their agents can make hay.

Brodders Football Analysis

Long term profit over 3+ years. Following all bets subscribers are winning £21,013(£10 a point, average bet £150) +ROI 4.22% (correct at 11/07/17)

Euro & other Football by Brodders (monthly)	£50 Sign Up Here

Bookmaker reviews and advice

Getting the best price available is very important for all those who take their betting seriously.

Please open an account with all those bookmakers on the page on this link that you do not already have an account with using the links provided.

There are literally hundreds of pounds on offer from bookmakers just for signing up through Bettingemporium.com

Betting Emporium results

The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS

If you had bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since our launch in Feb 2013 you would be winning + £38,652.30.

All bets have an ROI +4.2%.

A £4000 bank (see FAQ re bank-roll requirements) betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £42,652 an 966% increase

(correct at 11/07/17)

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