Weekly Articles "Road to Riches" by Rich 'Tighty' Prew
The Road to Riches Weekend of 15th-16th September
Coming up this weekend
- Football, the Premier League returns including Tottenham v Liverpool on Saturday lunchtime
- Racing, On the flat at Bath, Chester, Doncaster, Lingfield and Musselburgh all weather at Chelmsford
- NFL, Week Two of the 2018 Season
- Formula One, the Singapore Grand Prix
- Rugby Union, Rugby Championship New Zealand v South Africa and Australia v Argentina
- Cricket, T20 Finals Day on Saturday at Edgbaston
- Tennis, Davis Cup World Cup Semi-Finals
- Golf, on the European Tour the Evian Championships in France and the KLM Open in the Netherlands
NFL 2018 – Neil’s Picks
Seventeen weeks of Neil’s NFL write ups for the 2018 season continues this week costing £100 see here
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Vitality T20 Blast Finals Day Betting Preview
Finals day takes place at Edgbaston on Saturday. The semi final draw was as follows
Lancashire v Worcestershire
Sussex v Somerset
We have a pre-tournament position in play on Sussex. Outright odds tell us what a close contest this is expected to be. Bet365 are typical in being 11/4 each of four! Lancashire are marginal favourties in the first semi final, Sussex marginal favourites in the second
Looking at each team in turn
Lancashire finished 3rd in the North Group with an 8-5 record then won a low scoring quarter-final at Kent.
The talented wicket-keeper batsman Alex Davies has scored 525 runs at the top of the order in the competition so far and Liam Livingstone is now back from injury, one of the best ball strikers in the county game. Jos Buttler, Jimmy Anderson and Keaton Jennings are available to play.
The leg-spin of Matt Parkinson has led the way on the bowling front with 23 wickets
Worcestershire have been one of the coming one-day sides for a couple of seasons, and finished 1st in the North Group with a 9-4 record then beat Gloucestershire comfortably in a home quarter-final
Their young talent mainly comes in the batting line up. In the bowling ranks the unheralded Pat Brown, a 20 year old medium pacer, has emerged with 27 wickets. Moeen Ali is a potential match winner and available to play. Conversely Martin Guptill who smashed opposing bowling attacks apart in the group stages as the overseas pro is missing with a hamstring injury as is the young hitter Callum Ferguson, two big losses.
Sussex finished 3rd in the South Group winning 7 of their 10 completed games but suffering weather variance with 4 rained off no results denying them a home quarter final. They travelled to Durham for their quarter final and were convincing winners
Their main strength is in the bowling ranks where Rashid Khan and Jofra Archer have combined for 35 wickets in 22 appearances. Rashid was recalled by Afghanistan after the group stages and also misses now finals day which is a huge loss.
Somerset finished 1st in the South Group with a 10-4 record and smashed 230 at home to beat Notts in their quarter final.
New Zealander Corey Anderson has hit 466 runs from the middle order (Taunton is a very hittable small ground, which helps) and the bowling line up is full of England fringe talent such as the Overtons and Gregory
Looking at the finals day afresh if I were to make a choice I would suggest Lancashire as the likely winners but not a huge view, any of the four could win and it wouldn’t be a surprise in one of the tighter looking finals days.
My suggested bet is in the Sussex v Somerset semi-final where Sussex number three Laurie Evans is 7/2 with Betfair/Paddy Power (3/1 second favourite generally) to be top Sussex run scorer
Evans has 554 runs in 12 innings in the competition this season, over 200 runs clear of the former England international Luke Wright with 327 (ten innings). He should be clear favourite and isn’t and is one of the best bets for finals day
12 points Laurie Evans Top Sussex batsman Sussex v Somerset Semi-Final 7/2 Betfair Sportsbook/Paddy Power (3/1 generally)
Indefensible
“Things ain’t what they used to be” is an old adage but one that could be said to apply to Premier League defending. Around 2010 the number of goals scored in the top flight jumped from under 2.5 to over 2.75 goals per game and since then the three highest-scoring (twenty team) seasons since the Premier League began have been recorded.
'There's a lack of top class defenders around' has often been the first place to start in understanding why, and has been mentioned again this season when Manchester United conced three goals at unprolific Brighton. Perhaps the correct way to put it is that there are some top class defenders around but not enough. United may be better off with Alderweireld or Maguire at the back and not Lindelof. In the same way that the signing of Van Dijk transformed Liverpool’s defensive unit into one that has only conceded 14 leagues since October and one this season.
The trend towards pressing has undoubtedly increased of the past few years notably seen in England in Guardiola, Klopp and Pochettino’s coaching. High pressing requires a high defensive line. When only partially executed it can leave teams vulnerable to counter-attacks. When teams are in the process of learning to play this way, problems can result. Witness Arsenal’s much analysed recent problems at Chelsea, Emery’s team one in transition to implementing a higher press. In many teams the true holding midfielder in the team merely to protect his centre-backs and nullify the opposition, has been displaced by the deep-lying playmaker. Whilst we can still point to Kante and Matic the corrollary of deep lying midfielders now often asked to create is a lack of protection for defensive lines.
Recently Arsenal's director of high performance revealed that sprinting within a Premier League game has increased by 64% over the past four seasons.Now defenders have even less time to make decisions on whether to pick runners up or pass them on. Attacks are now extremely well-coached with data showing players the best areas to shoot from. Mourinho's United defend using a similar strategy to the rest of his teams, with men behind the ball and little space between midfield and defence, but teams are now picking holes in their shape. Man City, Liverpool and Tottenham have led the way as well organised attacks.
The result of the combination of these tactical trends is excitement, a steady trend to higher scoring games, and just the feeling that defending isn’t yet what it used to be and is adapting slower to the modern game than attacking is, where that area of the game is in the vanguard of coaching advances, for now.
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A £4000 bank betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £46,635.30 a 1066% increase
All bets have an ROI +3.53% with horse racing +7.86%, as at 8th August.
The Road to Riches Weekend of 8th-9th September
Coming up this weekend
- Football, England play Spain in their first UEFA Nations League Match at Wembley on Saturday
- Racing, On the flat at Ascot, Haydock, Kempton and Thirsk. Over the jumps at Stratford and all weather at Wolverhampton
- NFL, Week One of the 2018 Season
- Rugby Union, Rugby Championship New Zealand v Argentina and Australia v South Africa
- Cricket, the Fifth and final Test between England and India at The Oval
- Tennis, the final weekend of the US Open
- Golf, on the European Tour the Omega European Masters at Crans-Sur-Sierre and on the USPGA the BMW Championship at Aronimink GC in Philadelphia.
NFL 2018 – Neil’s Picks
Seventeen weeks of Neil’s NFL write ups for the 2018 season starting this week costing £100 see here
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Rugby Championship Saturday 11.05am Australia v South Africa in Brisbane
After the big loss to New Zealand for a second week in successions, further questions have been asked of Wallaby boss Michael Cheika in a defeat which resembled the previous match between the two. Chieka now only has a 50% win record as national coach
After the previous week’s disappointment in Sydney, Australia were much improved in the forwards in the second Bledisloe Cup game as they had some dominance at the scrum in the first-half. The return of loosehead Scott Sio and Allan Alaalatoa’s performance at tighthead deserves praise while the line-out was also more reliable. With parity up front you at least give yourself half a chance against New Zealand and for two weeks running they were well in contention for half an hour until New Zealand upped their game either side of half time.
South Africa, who triumphed 34-21 when they met Argentina the weekend before, dominated the second half in Mendoza in round two but could only outscore Argentina by two tries to one and lost 32-19.
Apart from a brief period during the first half, when they held the upper-hand, the Springboks found the going tough and they seemed shell-shocked by the intensity with which Argentina approached this match.
This round 3 match is an opportunity for Australia at a venue where they traditionally do well. They shouldn’t be as vulnerable defensively against South Africa, and should have parity up front though the absence of the world class Pocock at 7 is a loss.
Under their new coach South Africa showed a lot of ambition in the summer series but consistency is still a problem, typical of developing sides.
Here Australia are 5 point favourites at 10/11 on the handicap and 7/4 to win by 1-12 points in the winning margin market which is my preferred bet.
8 points Australia to win by 1-12 points 7/4 SkyBet, 17/10 Betfair Sportsbook/PaddyPower 6/4 Ladbrokes/Coral
Momentum in Sport
“Momentum”, the favourite of television pundits and newspaper columnists as well as team coaches everywhere reaffirms what we love to believe about sport: that winning is a habit, set to continue if unchecked and ignores that randomness is a more fundamental explanation.
A study in the 1980s by Gilovich and Tversky raised the question of “hot hand” streaks in the NBA, looking at the Philadelphia 76ers and found no evidence of momentum. Immediate past success had no bearing on future attempts, just as a coin might fall heads or tails regardless of what the previous toss might have been. That and later studies — including the probability of the winner of the fourth set winning the fifth too in tennis — confirmed what a coin-tossing logician might have suspected: that momentum, does not exist.
The late Stephen Jay Gould, evolutionary biologist and baseball fan explained the attraction of patterns, and how we are hard-wired to see patterns in randomness. In many cases, patterns can be discerned but only in retrospect. “Momentum” is usually recognised after the event, and seems to be borne of convenience rather than logic.
Observers, in an attempt to explain and understand the events that unfold before them, are much happier buying into this romanticised concept as opposed to viewing a game or season as a multitude of random independent events. No doubt on occasions shifts occur which alter probabilities of future outcomes, but the evidence suggests psychological momentum plays a far lesser role in sport than pundits and analysts would have us believe.
A year ago a counter argument was presented in the Official journal of human behaviour and evolution society that I happened to see a link to, a paper’s summary was as follows
“Animals winning an agonistic encounter are more likely to win their next encounter while losers are less likely, even when controlling for motivation and physical size. Do these winner and loser effects exist in human competitions? Drawing on a large database of professional tennis matches, we were able to control for players' ability and thereby test for winner and loser effects. We narrowed the database to matches between players who on average did not differ significantly in rank, and further to matches in which the first set was fought to a long tie-break. These closely fought matches present a natural experiment because players are assigned to treatment conditions – winning or losing a set – despite similar ability and performance. We found that among men, the winner of a closely fought tie-break had an approximate 60% chance of winning the second set, the loser a 40% chance. These effects did not exist among women, a finding consistent with the hypothesis that androgens mediate winner and loser effects. Our results may help in the design of competitions in sport as well as in work environments, where it may prove useful to either encourage winner effects or to attenuate their occasional adverse consequences.”
What this implies is that some statistical studies may fail to take into account the fact is that sport involves humans. If a team or player has pulled off a spectacular play three times, the fourth time they may be confident of repeating the feat, while their opponent will be fearful of a repeat occurrence and possibly demoralised so whilst momentum might be a myth, confidence probably isn’t.
What we do often see in commentary and punditry is that people do not recognise momentum until after it already has happened. Therefore, momentum is most likely simply an "after-the-fact" explanation for the outcome of a game. For example, when a team is said to have momentum it is because they've had several good plays one right after the other. If coaches knew what specifically started momentum, then they would obviously try to make it occur as often as they could. Yet, it is difficult for scientists to predict and for coaches or athletes to cause momentum to happen. This provides support for the theory that momentum may be an "after-the-fact" explanation.
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A £4000 bank betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £46,635.30 a 1066% increase
All bets have an ROI +3.53% with horse racing +7.86%, as at 8th August.
The Road to Riches Weekend of 1st-2nd September
Coming up this weekend
- Football, Premier League fixtures include Leicester City v Liverpool
- Racing, On the flat at Beverley, Chester and Sandown, combined flat/AW meetings at Chelmsford, Lingfield and Wolverhampton. Over the jumps at Newton Abbot.
- Formula One, the Italian Grand Prix at Monza
- Cricket, the fourth Test between England and India at Southampton continues
- Tennis, the middle weekend of the US Open.
- Golf, on the European Tour the Made in Denmark Open and on the USPGA the Dell Technologies Championship at TPC Boston.
Starting next week! NFL 2018 – Neil’s Picks
Seventeen weeks of Neil’s NFL write ups for the 2018 season, starting on Thursday September 6th, costing £100 see here
Also, live now NFL Season Ante-post Player and Team markets FREE here
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2018-19 Gallagher Premiership Rugby
English rugby’s Gallagher Premiership starts on Friday. Saracens are the defending champions beating regular season table toppers Exeter in the Play off final in May. Saracens and Exeter, perhaps challenged by Wasps should be at the head of affairs again, the strongest squads in a salary cap system where rising player salaries (competition from the French top 14 notably) is reducing depth of quality across the board. I was tempted to make the case for Wasps at 7-1 in the outright market but still feel that a side that conceded 150 points more than Saracens and Exeter over 22 regular season games last season lacks the defensive solidity of the top two sides.
Instead I turned to look at the top try scorer market and in particular at the Fijian Vereniki Goneva at the Newcastle Falcons the 2017-18 Aviva (previous league sponsor) Premiership player of the season. A star of the sevens game for many seasons he has now scored 53 tries in 100 Premiership appearances, mostly for Leicester Tigers until his move to Newcastle two seasons ago.
Last season he was joint top league try scorer with 13 in 19 appearances for a side that finished 4th in the league and lost in the play-off semi-finals.
Goneva is 34 but his coach Dean Richards said at the time of a recent contract extension
“He defies the ageing process with the physical condition he keeps himself in, he is a phenomenal athlete but also has a thorough understanding of the game and how he can influence it. He is right up there in the world-class bracket when it comes to finishing.”
As a team Newcastle scored 55 league tries last season at least 20 fewer than the top sides, and this perhaps accounts for why Goneva is priced up at 16-1 here opposed to the favourite Christian Wade of Wasps, another of the joint league try scorers last season who is 5-1 favourite in what could be a prolific Wasps side
This of course won’t be the most liquid of markets, but the each way terms of 1/4 1,2,3,4 are sensible and if he stays fit Goneva should be in the frame again
8 points each way Vereniki Goneva Top Gallagher Premiership Try scorer 16-1 Bet365 and Betfair Sportsbook/Paddy Power 14-1 Ladbrokes 1/4 1,2,3,4
Finders Keepers
Goalkeeping has evolved over the years, with an emphasis away from merely shot-stopping towards a more technical and rounded role involving distribution, when keepers have to be a genuine outlet for the team and able to pass and distribute the ball as good as; if not better than some of their defensive team mates.
As the English game has evolved and goalkeepers in the Premier League are being asked to play out from the back, start attacks and sweep up in defence we know there are certain goalkeepers who are absolutely changing the image of the goalkeeper; players like Ederson and Ter Stegen who demand the ball under pressure and recycle it out to their players with speed and precision to launch counter-attacks against the press.
Just how prevalent is the new approach in the Premier League? Unfortunately the Premier League statistics for passes only go back 12 years but it still gives us some interesting information. Firstly the number of passes the goalkeeper with the most passes made in one season and secondly how many goalkeepers in a season made over 800 passes.
Clearly, there has been a change, even the goalkeepers who used to be known for playing out from the back were never passing the ball around as much as goalkeepers in today’s game. Seven seasons ago the most passes by a single goalkeeper in a season was 1036, last season it was 1170.
How many of the 20 Premier League goalkeepers made more than 800 passes in a season? Out of 20 goalkeepers last year 15 made over 800 passes in the season, 3 years earlier only 1 did and the year before that? None. The biggest change isn’t that the top keepers are making more and more passes but rather that more and more goalkeepers are being asked to play this way.
Guardiola was in the vanguard of changing the role of the Premier League goalkeeper when relatively little-known Ederson became the most expensive goalkeeper in history when he was signed from Benfica for £35m.
Of course the last transfer window took things a stage further. Liverpool paid £66m, nearly doubling the world record, on Alisson from Roma. Chelsea then paid £71m for 23 year old Arrizabalaga. He, Alisson and Ederson - at a combined cost of £175m - constitute nearly a quarter of the money ever spent on Premier League goalkeepers. 40% of the total transfer fees paid for top-flight goalkeepers in England has been paid out in the last 12 months.
In this era of playing out from the back, countering the press and distribution being key the Premier League led by the top six are finally catching up with the trends set by Neuer several years ago.
Brodders Football Analysis
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Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £42,635.30 All bets have an ROI +3.53%
A £4000 bank betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £46,635.30 a 1066% increase
All bets have an ROI +3.53% with horse racing +7.86%, as at 8th August.
The Road to Riches Weekend of 25th-26th August
Coming up this weekend
- Football, the Premier League fixtures include Manchester United v Tottenham on MNF
- Racing, On the flat at Chelmsford, Goodwood, Newmarket, Redcar, Windsor and York. Over the jumps at Cartmel.
- Formula One, the Belgian Grand Prix at Spa
- Cricket, Vitality T20 Blast Quarter finals
- Rugby Union, the Rugby Championship continues, New Zealand v Australia and Argentina v South Africa.
- Tennis, ATP Winston-Salem Open in North Carolina ahead of the US Open.
- Golf, on the European Tour the Czech Masters and on the USPGA the Northern Trust Open in New Jersey.
US Open Tennis (27th Aug - 9th Sep 2018) - by Nigel Seeley
The draw is out, and the full package with outrights, match analysis and details of all the bets we are having is £50 see here
NFL 2018 – Neil’s Picks
Seventeen weeks of Neil’s NFL write ups for the 2018 season, starting on Thursday September 6th, costing £100 see here
Also, live now NFL Season Ante-post Player and Team markets FREE here
Free tip
Vitality T20 Blast Quarter final: Durham Jets v Sussex Sharks Friday 6.30pm
The knock out stages of this season’s T20 blast began last night with Lancashire beating Kent.
The remaining three games are as follows:
Friday Durham v Sussex
Saturday Worcestershire v Gloucestershire
Sunday Somerset v Notts
This column has an ante-post position running on Sussex, who finished third in the South Group. Sussex won 7 games in the group and lost three, with another four “no result” gams a record in the 13 year history of the competition. If we were to extrapolate their 7-3 win loss record to winning a majority of the rained off games then they would have had a home quarter final but it is part of the variance of the English summer and the competition.
Durham, finishing second in the North group won 9 of their 14 group games. Both sides are stronger bowling sides than batting, the two have the lowest combined bowling averges in the competition. Durham’s batting lynchpin has been New Zealand overseas player Tom Latham with 454 runs including four fifties and a hundred. In their bowling ranks Aussie quick Nathan Rimmington and leggie Imran Tahir (now at the CPL) have combined for 37 wickets Ben Stokes is not available for the quarter final.
Sussex’s batting star has been their number three the exciting Laurie Evans with nearly 500 runs and five fifties but it is the depth of bowling resources that makes them a strong team
Afghan leggie Rashid Khan has dominated every T20 competition he has played (strike rates of sub 20 and economy rates of under 6.5 in each of the IPL, BBL, Caribbean PL, Bangladesh PL and T20 Blast ) and in the group stages here took 17 wickets in 10 innings at an economy rate of six runs per over and Sussex now have to cope without him away on international duty. Jofra Archer who broke through in the Big Bash and is currently qualifying for England also took 17 wickets and the support from T20 specialist Tymal Mills, Chris Jordan and spinner Danny Briggs means they should have all bases covered.
Outright prices here are Durham 6/5 Sussex 4/6
The market I like the look of is top Sussex batsman. Sussex are a far stronger bowling side than a batting one, and this market therefore lacks depth. Veteran international and worldwide T20 player Luke Wright opens the batting and is priced at 11/4 favourite but he has scored 315 runs in the competition this season compared to Evans’ 491 batting at three, Wright having two fewer innings. Evans is available at 100/30.
Evans is one of the emerging players in the format across the 18 counties and is value here on what is usually a very sluggish pitch where power is needed to compile a score quickly. Evans is the power in the Sussex line up.
8 points Laurie Evans Top Sussex batsman T20 Quarter final Durham v Sussex 100/30 Betfred and Betfair Sportsbook/paddyPower
Home and Away
This time it was going to be different (I thought). A hot dry summer had seen county cricket play on parched pitches. India arrived in the UK with spinners causing our batsmen problems in the early tour ODIs, an array of seamers and with a vaunted batting line up.
A month later and writing during the third test, India are two-nil down in a five test series, their batting line up Kohli apart unable to cope with the swinging Duke ball in much more mixed weather than we had before the touring team arrived. India have in the third test just passed 200 for only the second and third times in 11 innings in England, helped this time by a slower pitch that has partially negated the impact of the swing bowling they so struggle with.
The problems of away teams in Test cricket are not new. India struggle over here, England struggle on the sub-continent and this applies across various world teams. Over and above the alien conditions that they are asked to play in there are other reason why this trend is being magnified.
Firstly the big three, England, India and Australia play a lot of cricket often for financial reasons. The schedule is so crowded that gone are the days where touring sides get proper preparation for an away test series. India played one 18-a-side game at Chelmsford in preparation for this series, the first part of their tour being taken up with white ball cricket. In between the second and third Tests, a chance to find some form perhaps? No game for India.
Second technology is a factor. More cricket is being played. Where in previous generations the sort of torrential rain that fell on the second day of the second test at Lords would have seen the end of the days play after 8 overs, with new modern drainage systems the players this time were back out at 5pm.
Thirdly regulations, with the emphasis on value for money for spectators, play can be extended to as late as 7.30pm on some occasions . The use of floodlights, and the difficulty of batting under floodlights with exaggerated red ball movement in England, is another reason why a visiting team might struggle and games might not last as long.
So all these factors are reasons why draws are rarer and rarer, as indeed are Test matches lasting the full five days. The influence of one day cricket has led to higher run rates, captains are more attacking and DRS means dismissals which prior to the introduction of technology umpires wouldn’t countenance.
One analysis recently showed that between 1960-1990 the draw occurred in 45% of Tests, down to 36% in the decade after and 25% in the 200s. From 2013-to date that is down to 18%
At the same time England’s win ratio at home has gone from 23% in the 1980s to 62% in the current decade. India from 19% to 70% and Australia from 35% to 67% in the same timeframes.
Can this be changed? Should measures be put in place to even up the competitive imbalance? Well the trend towards fewer draws isn’t going to change, technological improvement (which helps us see more cricket) isn’t going to be reversed, nor are the attacking players we see develop their skills in one day cricket and most fans aren’t going to want to return to 550-5 declared plays 450 all out match drawn anyway . In terms of home advantage its difficult to see the schedule becoming less crowded so as to afford more preparation time.
In country cricket we are two years into removing the toss in four-day matches, the visiting captain is given the option of bowling first or having the toss as normal to decide which side bats first. The ICC considered this for test cricket this year, and decided not to adopt it. Removing the toss in the County Championship increased the number of games lasting until the fourth day, with 85% going the distance in 2017 compared to 74% in 2015. However, it has not yet led to a rise in away wins. In 2015, before the toss was scrapped, the away side won 45 matches, compared to 33 in 2016 and 36 in 2017.
Perhaps all that practically that can be done is for the ICC to instruct (with penalties if necessary) home sides on the type of pitches they want to see, but even then that can’t prevent natural factors such as India having to bat in bad weather at Lords, and the sun shining when England came to bat on day three.
Having been thrashed in the Ashes, England again looked like world-beaters in the early part of the series. Come the Sri Lanka tour later this year on big turning wickets in extreme heat the likelihood is that they will be facing a huge struggle again.
brodders Football Analysis
Currently carrying 2018-19 Premier League and Football League ante-post reports
Long term profit over more than four years. Following all bets subscribers are winning £19,494 (£10 a point, avg bet £150) +ROI 2.79% (correct at 8/8/18)
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Bookmaker reviews and advice
Getting the best price available is very important for all those who take their betting seriously.
Please open an account with all those bookmakers on the page on this link that you do not already have an account with using the links provided.
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £42,635.30 All bets have an ROI +3.53%
A £4000 bank betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £46,635.30 a 1066% increase
All bets have an ROI +3.53% with horse racing +7.86%, as at 8th August.
The Road to Riches Weekend of 18th-19th August
Coming up this weekend
- Football, the Premier League fixtures include Chelsea v Arsenal
- Racing, On the flat at Bath, Doncaster, Newbury, Newmarket and Ripon. Over the jumps at Market Rasen and Perth.
- Cricket the third Test between England and India continues at Trent Bridge
- Rugby Union, the start of the Rugby Championship, Australia v New Zealand and South Africa v Argentina
- Tennis, ATP Western and Southern Open in Cincinnati.
- Golf, on the European Tour the Nordea Masters in Sweden, on the USPGA the Wyndham Championship
US Open Tennis (27th Aug - 9th Sep 2018) - by Nigel Seeley
Full package, outrights, match analysis and details of all the bets we are having is £50 see here
York Ebor Meeting (Wed 22nd Aug - Sat 25th Aug 2018) - by Neil Channing
Full write ups of every race giving details of the bets Neil is having, costing £99.99 see here
NFL 2018 – Neil’s Picks
Seventeen weeks of Neil’s NFL write ups for the 2018 season, starting on Thursday September 6th, costing £100 see here
Also coming soon: FREE NFL 2018-19 season Ante post, Team and Player markets
Free tip
Australia v New Zealand Bledisloe Cup Rugby, Sydney Saturday 18th August 10.45am BST kick off
The 2018 Rugby Championship will be the seventh edition of the expanded annual southern hemisphere tournament featuring Argentina, Australia, South Africa and New Zealand.
The tournament continues to use the same sequence of games across the schedule, beginning on the 18 August with Australia hosting reigning champions New Zealand and South Africa hosting Argentina, and ending eight weeks (six rounds and two bye weeks), ending on 6 October
The format for the 2018 tournament retains the previous Championship format that changed in 2017. Each side plays the other once at home, and once away, giving a total of six matches each, and twelve in total. A win earns a team four league points, a draw two league points, and a loss by eight or more points zero league points. A bonus point can be earned in one of two ways: by scoring at least three tries more than the opponent in a match, or by losing within seven points.
New Zealand have won five of the last six editions and Argentina have finished last in five of their six years in the competition.
Outright odds for the Championship are as follows:
New Zealand 1/7
Australia 7/1
South Africa 7/1
Argentina 100/1
There is very little to go at from a betting perspective with New Zealand, the strongest side with enviable depth, very likely winners. Argentina are 2/5 to finish bottom, so also nothing to do there
The first match of the championship is the Bledisloe Cup Match between Australia and New Zealand in Sydney.
New Zealand, who put 127 points on France in their three test summer series, are best priced 2/9 with Bet365 for the match and 11 point handicap favourites at 10/11. They won the corresponding fixture last year by 20 points, then 6 points in the home fixture.
In the winning margin New Zealand are priced at Evens to win by 13 or more and 12/5 to win by 1-12 points with Ladbrokes/Coral
Obviously we don’t want to oppose New Zealand too much but there is a chance this is closer than 13+ implies.
The Waratahs appearance in the semi-finals of this year’s Super Rugby Championship could have a wider impact for the national side. When an Australian side does not figure in the later stage of Super Rugby this has a knock on effect for the national side because almost all the players miss a month of rugby during the play-offs. They rest, but lose match sharpness. Most of New Zealand’s Test players play throughout July and August and are right on it by the time of the traditional Bledisloe Cup curtain raiser to the Championship.
This year the Waratahs, who supplied a dozen of the 23 man squad for the third Test for against Ireland last month will be match fit. Australia also have the world class back row duo of Hooper and Pocock back in tandem for the first time in over a year and Pocock especially, superb at the breakdown at slowing down opposition ball, has a chance to disrupt possession and make this an attritional rather than open contest. Even so, Australia have plenty of firepower of their own to put up some points, it should be high scoring. As such the 2/1 plus available about New Zealand to win by 1-12 appeals
Recommendation
8 points New Zealand to win by 1-12 points 21/10 Ladbrokes/Coral, 2/1 PaddyPower, 24/13 Sportingbet
The Crusades
A fortnight ago the Crusaders won their ninth Super Rugby title
Their impressive season read played 19, won 17, as they dominated the competition throughout.
Their win in the final over the Lions was typical in they had little possession or territory but never looked in trouble as they cruised to victory
The Crusaders’ only defeats this term came in Rounds 4 and 5 – to the Hurricanes and Highlanders – but since that March loss they have rarely been challenged. If Leinster are the most complete outfit in the north then the Crusaders are their southern equivalent.
Their success was built on suffocating defence and a rock sold pack of forwards that set the platform throughout 2018 while the backline boasts a mixture of young talent combined with seasoned veterans such as Ryan Crotty and Bryn Hall, the latter visibly enjoying a new lease of life since his switch from the Blues.
The form of young quartet Scott Barrett, Richie Mo’unga, Jack Goodhue and George Bridge was noteworthy, all names we will be hearing more of at the 2019 World Cup in Japan.
Their coach is Scott Robertson, whose stock has been on a steep upward curve for several years after success at Canterbury and now back-to-back Super Rugby titles at the Crusaders and now in pole position to be the next All Blacks coach . He’s built a team that has an incredible ability to play in any conditions, with little ball, but can also entertain, with Mo’unga at fly half the catalyst of their transition from defence to attack.
There are the hallmarks of a dynasty forming in Christchurch as they made it title number nine. Few would back against them making it 10 next season, for a young side that should suffer few if any defections to the monies of the Northern Hemisphere.
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