Weekly Articles "Road to Riches" by Rich 'Tighty' Prew
The Road to Riches Weekend of 7th-8th January
Coming Up this weekend…
- Football. FA Cup 3rd round weekend. All Premier League fixtures are West Ham v Manchester City, Everton v Leicester City, Hull v Swansea and Sunderland v Burnley
- NFL The start of the play-offs, wild card weekend with the 3rd-6th seeds in each conference playing in four games over the weekend.
- Racing Jumps meetings at Sandown, Newcastle and Wincanton. All weather meetings at Kempton and Wolverhampton.
- Tennis: The run up to the Australian Open with the Hopman Cup in Perth and ATP Tournaments in Brisbane, Chennai and Doha.
- Golf: USPGA Tournament of Champions at Kapalua in Hawaii.
- Cricket, The Big Bash League continues in Australia.
NFL: The Play-Offs and Super Bowl LI
Playoffs package includes: 7th/8th January: Wildcard games, 14th/15th January: Divisional Playoffs, 22nd January: Conference Playoffs. Anyone who signs up to our Playoffs package for £50 will automatically get the £25 Super-Bowl package for free
Super Bowl package includes all Neil's Super Bowl game analysis PLUS all his infamous prop bets.
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NFL Playoffs (Jan 7th - 22nd 2017) |
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Super Bowl LI, Houston, Texas (Sunday Feb 5th 2017) - Includes all of Neil's prop bets on the Super Bowl. |
Australian Open Tennis by Nigel Seeley
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Australian Open Tennis Championships (Jan 16th - 29th 2017) |
The full package is £50 and includes the outrights, all Nigel's match analysis and details of all the bets that we have.
Nigel is an excellent long term winner on the tennis with an ROI +3.84%. If you had bet £10 a point on all darts bets on this website since we launched 3 years ago you would be winning £1299.90
Free Tip
The First match of the NFL play-offs sees the Houston Texans host the Oakland Raiders. (Saturday 9.35pm on Sky Sports1)
With Brock Osweiler and Connor Cook starting at Quarterback the over/under for the game is 36.5 points .There hasn't been a lower total in the NFL, regular season and play-offs included, since December 23, 2012. It is the second lowest play-off game points total expectation for a decade.
For the Texans, Quarterback has been an issue for several years. The strength of the defense has kept them competitive but has meant that they have drafted too low to find a franchise quarterback and last off-season they took the plunge in free agency giving Brock Osweiler a mighty contract, which he has struggled to justify. In week 15 Osweiler was finally benched for Tom Savage after throwing back to back interceptions. Osweiler has been benched by two different coaching staffs in two consecutive years with the play-offs on the line. The passing offense immediately sprung into life under Savage.
Last week against the Titans, having already won the division to ensure a home play off game this weekend, Tom Savage suffered a concussion and Osweiler was back in, and with Savage absent for at least this weekend Osweiler starts this match.
For Oakland, a tremendous season and a likely AFC West divisional win (with bye week to follow) was sawn off when Quarterback Derek Carr broke his leg midway through week 16. Such was Carr’s importance to an emerging team that in one fell swoop the team that was seen as Super-Bowl contenders was seen as being play-off also-rans. Matt McGloin replaced him for the Week 17 game in Denver and, compounding the team’s bad luck, exited with an injured shoulder. Oakland lost, The Chiefs won in San Diego to win the division, sending Oakland to Houston in this wild-card round with a rookie third string quarterback Connor Cook playing on the road in the playoffs in his first start. He will become the first QB in the Super -Bowl era to make his first NFL career start during the postseason. The Texans allowed just 214 passing yards per game to opposing passers in the regular season, second to only Denver so its likely to be a baptism of fire.
All these factors are how the markets arrive at a 36.5 point over /under and the Texans 3.5 point favourites. Neil is going to discuss the spreads on Saturday in his play off package here.
Instead I looked at a couple of the sub-markets to see if these quarterback/offense issues that are of course well known gave an angle elsewhere.
I began to look at both defenses to try to back up the evidence of watching with my own eyes through the season. At first glance Oakland’s looks vulnerable. Their strength is up front, particularly with Defensive player of the year candidate Khalil Mack bringing pressure. However Oakland have had a problem in their secondary/passing game all season (which is why Carr’s presence in the offense is so important, he allowed Oakland to be competitive in high scoring games)
Oakland has allowed the most receptions of 20+ (61), 40+ (16) and most Touchdowns of 40+ (7).yards of any NFL team in the regular season.
However, when looking at how the Texans might take advantage of this weakness, I discover that Osweiler was 22 of 86 (25.6%) on passes 15 yards or further downfield on the season. Over the regular season the Texans had a -49 point differential, the fourth-lowest by playoff team since divisional realignment in 2002.
Houston’s defence is their real strength. In 8 regular season home games this year they conceded only 133 points, averaging under 17 per game. Despite being without JJ Watt a really good front seven and an under-rated secondary have presented challenges for all opponents especially at home.
With both passing games in trouble with these quarterbacks, I then looked at the running games. These both look more promising prospects than the aerial game. Houston ranked 8th in the league with 117 yards a game in 2016, with Lamar Miller rushing for 1073 yards. Oakland ranked 6th in the NFL at 120 yards per game rushing this season. Oakland had more of a committee approach at running back. Latavius Murray (788 yards) Jalen Richard (491 yards) and DeAndre Washington (467 yards) all had spells at lead back. Murray has been down to 30% of snaps for Oakland at running back in recent weeks.
Houston has the stronger rushing defense of the two teams, giving up 99 yards per game (12th in the league) compared to Oakland’s 117 (23rd in the league)
I have talked before about NFL away teams wanting to defer on winning the toss and kick to home side to have the first possession, thus getting the ball for start of second half, when a home crowd is quieter and they can benefit from half-time adjustments.
If there was ever a game where getting the ball first might not be an advantage in markets like first touchdown scorer this is it, but the prime candidate given the type of game this is likely to be has to be Lamar Miller. These two teams met in Mexico City earlier in the season and Miller ran for 104 yards and a touchdown and he is likely to get 20+ touches in this game and looks the most reliable first touchdown scorer option at 7-1 with Bet365, if we have to have a bet on anyone scoring a touchdown. It feels that sort of game. We'll see what Neil says!
Beyond the first touchdown scorer market it is likely that Houston will get the ball first. I would be quite surprised if they went down the field to score a touchdown. I would be far less surprised if they got into field goal range and that was the first scoring play.
First scoring play field goal is 11/10 in the markets. First scoring play Houston field goal is 100/30. Either side scoring a field goal as the first scoring play is an outsider to either side scoring a touchdown first, which is a standard pricing for an NFL game. I don’t think that is necessarily correct for this game though with this quarterback match-up and therein lies the opportunity.
Both sides have good field goal kickers, and the game is indoors. Nick Novak set a new single season Texans records for both field goals made (34) and field goals attempted (39), and 87% was Novak’s career best in what was a down year for kickers throughout the league. 39 field goal attempts backs up the relative lack of touchdowns in this offense in 2016.
The most conservative way to play “first scoring play” in an expected 36 point game would be to take the 11/10 on either side scoring a field goal. I prefer the 100/30 on the home side, likely with the ball first.
9 Points First Scoring Play Houston Texans field goal 100/30 BetVictor, Ladbrokes, Coral
A shadow of it’s former self
As I considered what to write about this week I tried to think who won last season’s FA Cup. I got there eventually. Manchester United. Now who did they beat in the final? I scratched my head and eventually remembered Alan Pardew dancing on the touchline. It was Crystal Palace, then. For me, a hard core sports fan who once could recite FA Cup final teams, results and scorers going back to 1970-something, this was somewhat of a shock.
The first week of the New Year and the FA Cup 3rd round has seen a now established ritual of pundits and fans bemoaning the FA Cup’s declining status and making suggestions about how to restore the competition’s relevance.
A generation ago the FA Cup was the premier competition of English football. The league determined who the best side was, but the glory was in the Cup. Cup-final Saturday was the showpiece event of the year, screened on two competing television channels. Third round weekend was much anticipated.
Back in the 80s, Bournemouth beating Manchester United and York City beating Arsenal felt like landmark events. The great shocks were part of the folk culture of the English game, and whilst they occasionally happen nowadays (Bradford beating Chelsea at Stamford Bridge was that rarity, a proper shock that got the pulses of all neutrals going), beating West Ham or Bournemouth reserves, with star players rested after the Christmas programme and ahead of the next Premier League games doesn’t quite hold the same cachet. The FA Cup third round’s position at the end of the heavy Christmas programme now often feels like respite for Premier League managers who can rest weary players against lesser opposition.
There have been a range of suggestions for how to restore the FA Cup to former glories lustre, ranging from the relatively sensible to the gimmicky, but the truth is that football has changed. Clubs can hardly be blamed if they prioritise the league. The FA Cup winners take home £1.8m in prize money; Last season, Leicester won over £100m for winning the league. A financial disparity like that matters in priorities for all the big clubs.
It’s hard also to avoid the thought that part of the allure of the FA Cup was that for a long time the final was the only match to be televised live. Even by the late 80s, there would rarely be more than a dozen league games screened. That added to the sense of showpiece about the final: it was just about the only day when England as one gathered to watch the same game. That sort of event television simply doesn’t exist in the same way any more.
Some of the lack of appeal of the modern FA Cup is self-inflicted by administrators. Minor irritants include doing the draw for the next round before games in the current round are completed and changing so many kick off times for television that the casual fan doesn’t know what to watch when. More clumsily, moving the final away from 3pm on a Saturday afternoon was an odd decision.
Suggestions to revitalise the competition include those that might well be supported and cause least concern such as removing replays, moving the semi-finals from Wembley and ensuring the cup final is once again the last game of the season . Some have even suggested changes that won’t ever happen (making the Champions League champions only, and restoring the Cup Winners Cup) but which it is felt have contributed to the decline of the FA Cup’s prestige. Some suggestions include seeding draws (say into pots as the Champions league does), and ensuring that matches are played at the home of the lowest seed to increase the possibility of giant-killings but perhaps the lower ranked team would need the option to choose to switch venue for bigger crowd revenue.
This year again the FA Cup will gain momentum from the last eight onwards as it always does. The simple fact is though that whatever changes are made to the format the days when it was the piece of silverware everybody wanted have passed. Life, football fans and football itself (especially with the Premier League and Champions League offering such rewards both in prize money and TV/commercial revenue) has moved on.
Brodders Football Analysis
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Euro & other Football by Brodders (monthly) |
- The Euros 2016 for subscribers. Results: +£4,098.30 (betting £10 a point, average bet about £150) +ROI 31.43%
- Long term profit over 3 years. Following all bets subscribers are winning £20,216 (£10 a point, average bet £150) +ROI 5.71%
Bookmaker reviews and advice
Getting the best price available is very important for all those who take their betting seriously.
Please open an account with all those bookmakers on the page on this link that you do not already have an account with using the links provided.
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
£10 per point on every recommended bet since launch in Feb 2013 would be winning £34,185 (as at 26th October 2016)
All bets have an ROI +4.75% and Horse Racing has a ROI of +6.84%
A £4000 bank (see FAQ re bank-roll requirements) betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £38, 185 an 855% increase
The Road to Riches: New Year Weekend
Happy New Year.: Coming Up this weekend…
- Football. A full programme over the New Year period with two games in the next week for Premier League teams.
- NFL Week Seventeen of the NFL regular season with the Detroit Lions and Green Bay Packers playing to decide the winner of the NFC North as the play-off line up is finalised.
- Racing Jumps meetings on New Years Eve (including at Newbury) and New Years Day (including at Cheltenham).
- Tennis: the start of the 2017 season next week and the run up to the Australian Open with the Hopman Cup in Perth and ATP Tournaments in Brisbane, Chennai and Doha.
- Cricket, the third test between Australia v Pakistan in Sydney, the South Africa v Sri Lanka Cape Town test and the Big Bash League continues in Australia.
NFL: The Play-Offs and Super Bowl LI
Playoff package includes: 7th/8th January: Wildcard games, 14th/15th January: Divisional Playoffs, 22nd January: Conference Playoffs
Super Bowl package includes all Neil's Super Bowl game analysis PLUS all his infamous prop bets.
|
NFL Playoffs (Jan 7th - 22nd 2017) |
|
|
Super Bowl LI, Houston, Texas (Sunday Feb 5th 2017) - Includes all of Neil's prop bets on the Super Bowl. |
Australian Open Tennis by Nigel Seeley
|
Australian Open Tennis Championships (Jan 16th - 29th 2017) |
The full package is £50 and includes the outrights, all Nigel's match analysis and details of all the bets that we have.
Nigel is an excellent long term winner on the tennis with an ROI +3.84%. If you had bet £10 a point on all darts bets on this website since we launched 3 years ago you would be winning £1299.90
Free Tip
Perth Scorchers v Sydney Thunder (Big Bash, New Years Day)
This year’s Big Bash, the sixth iteration of the successful T20 competition in Australia, is a third of the way through its group stages. One of two games on New Years Day (starts 10.15am UK time) sees the Perth Scorchers featuring Ian Bell and David Willey host the Sydney Thunder.
Perth at home are a formidable proposition, with the travel to western Australia a disadvantage for every visiting team in a tight schedule and windy conditions at the WACA ground so unique. Perth are at the top of the league table after their three games played with 2 victories, including impressively at the Melbourne Renegades last time out, restricting the hosts to 148 and winning by four wickets.
Sydney Thunder have lost all three games played and the latest loss to the Brisbane Heat was sadly typical. The loss of early wickets with the bat didn’t help and then they were in a great position with the Heat 6-63 chasing 158 and the Thunder still lost
Perth are the strongest favourite of any home team so far in this competition at 8/11, with Thunder at 5/4. However it is the sub markets where there is an interesting bet.
Michael Klinger is the all time highest run-scorer in BBL history (1200 runs in under 40 innings) first with the Adelaide Strikers now with the Scorchers. Klinger opens the batting and he is often the player the team bats round. This has been the case for Klinger for many years. Now 35 years old, a technically correct batsman his batting style would seem best suited to the long format, but he has been an exceptional batsman in one-day and T20 cricket worldwide, where his correct stroke-play and good judgment of when to go aerial has been effective.
His T20 record is exemplary. He’s played nearly 130 games and scored nearly 4000 runs at an average of just under 40 and a strike rate of 125 with 40 scores of 50 or more. Klinger scored 72 last time out ( off 55 balls ) to set up the win against the Renegades.
There are the usual caveats for any T20 bet. It’s the shortest format highest variance form of cricket for both individual and team performances. Klinger though is a more reliable proposition than many in the format. Opening the batting he has to survive the power-play overs but if he does so his conversion rate into potential top scorers for his team is high.
The Scorchers are a strong team but their real strength is in the bowling line up. A top five of Klinger, the Marsh brothers, Bell and Turner with Voges to follow is workmanlike but not the deep explosive line up that some of the BBL teams put out game after game. This works in our favour if backing Klinger. Famous last words, there isn’t a 50 off 25 late order hitter in the Perth side to come out of nowhere and sink a bet from an opener who has compiled a 50 over 10 overs plus.
8 points Michael Klinger Top Perth Scorchers batsman (v Sydney Thunder new years day) 3/1 Bet365, 11/4 generally
Offensive Lines...
Week 16 results in the NFL saw the defending Super-bowl champions the Denver Broncos eliminated from play-off contention meaning that with the Carolina Panthers already eliminated neither of last year’s Super-bowl teams will make the post-season, as good an indication as any that parity is alive and well in the NFL as intended. With only a few spots left to be decided in this year’s play-offs starting next weekend, it looks like more than half of the teams in the post-season will be different than those that played in January last year.
One of the biggest indicators of success, or failure, this season has been the good/bad play from NFL offensive lines. An offensive lineman has one of the least sexy, but most important jobs in the NFL. Why are these players important?
- The offensive line is in charge of protecting the QB, the key position on any team.
- The offensive line has to give the QB enough time to throw a pass. Even the best QB in the world is ineffective if he can't get a pass off.
- The offensive line has to block for the QB and the running back, so there are a lot of different situations and ways that they have to move.
- The offensive line has to go up against often tremendous athletes: pass rushers from the Defensive Line as well as blitzers from other positions such as Linebacker and Secondary. People of all speeds, shapes, and sizes are trying to get past you.
With NFL scoring approaching an all-time high, the premium on having a solid offensive line to enable your offense to keep pace is soaring. This trend began around 2010-11. In the 2009 Super-Bowl the Giants used a ferocious pass rush to upset the undefeated Patriots in Super Bowl XLII. It served as a wake-up call for the league, a reminder that teams, even ones as explosive as that Patriots group was, have no chance to win if they can't protect the quarterback.
The template for this trend was established by the Dallas Cowboys, who used three first round draft picks on offensive linemen in the 2011-14 NFL drafts and these players are universally recognised as part of the best O-Line in the NFL today. Of course the right players need to be selected but the Cowboys have hit on all three, all-pros and the core of a unit that has created the protection and stability that has allowed rookies Dak Prescott and Zeke Elliott to enter the league and look so impressive.
Amongst teams in or near the play offs this year the following teams have invested significantly in their offensive lines and have begun to see the benefits:
Oakland Raiders: Primarily via free-agency, created a unit that has been at the heart of one of the most prolific NFL offenses
Detroit Lions: From having one of the worst groups in the NFL, the unit has really developed with the team having invested three of their last five first round draft picks on the offensive line.
Miami Dolphins: Something had to be done here too, the line represented a group of five human turnstiles three years ago. Since then two first round picks have been invested on offensive linemen, supplemented by free agent acquisitions. An effective running game this season is a key reason why the play-offs beckon and why the team can keep rolling despite the loss of their starting quarterback to injury a few weeks ago
Tennessee Titans. A combination of overhauling the running back position through free agency and drafting offensive line (including the most impressive rookie tackle for some time in Jack Conklin) to assist their new franchise quarterback Marcus Mariota have made this team competitive, reaching the edge of the play-off this year from being the worst team in the league in 2015.
Elsewhere the league is littered with threadbare offensive lines, sometimes shredded by injury and sometimes through (often years of) under-investment even on contending teams. The Panthers and Broncos, last year's Super Bowl teams, have two of the worst offensive lines in the league this year. Over the last six weeks, Cam Newton has completed just 91 of 201 passes, 45%, the third worst completion rate in a six game span since 1991 in large part because of lack of protection. The Vikings, who used five different starting-line combinations in their first nine games, saw their season implode in large part due to offensive line problems.
There are a few offensive lines so good they can push a team to the playoffs, but there are many more that are so middling, their organisations must work around them to avoid being shoved backward in the standings. The Seattle Seahawks for example, do so with a fine defensive unit and a mobile franchise quarterback but have still lost games primarily due to offensive line weaknesses, those games affecting their play-off seeding.
Across the NFL there are a number of challenges to developing strong offensive line play. The prevalence of spread offenses in the college game sees players across many positions, but notably a technical job like offensive lineman, come into the pro ranks a way off being ready. There are only so many big men with the footwork to protect effectively and the intelligence to work together to implement complicated offensive schemes. Once in the pros the last players union deal with the NFL limited the number of padded practices for all teams, so cohesion can be difficult to develop. Beyond that offensive lines are units, with five big men working as a group. Free agency has restricted the longevity of many units containing players that take some time to develop. The result for many teams is a shallow talent pool, and offensive lines in flux.
Even when a franchise commits to overhauling the offensive line, it doesn’t always go to plan if the scouting/ draft selection process is flawed. In a period spanning six drafts, the LA Rams used two No. 2 overall draft picks (in 2009 and 2014) on offensive tackles and in 2015 drafted no less than four linemen and still have one of the worst offensive lines in the league. In his rookie season running back Todd Gurley starred. This year, as the unit in front of him underperformed, he has become the first running back ever with 15 games in a single season of 10+ carries & less than 4 yards per carry. He has a chance to make it a clean season sweep in week 17 this weekend.
Finally there is the case of outright under-investment in the position. Since 2007 the New York Jets have drafted just two offensive linemen in the first three rounds, and neither player is still on the team. Amongst their myriad problems, addressing that in April 2017 has to be a priority.
No matter what the offensive line strategies are for NFL teams, sometimes you just need a bit of luck, or to avoid bad luck to be able to make the most of your offensive line investments. This past weekend two of the best young quarterbacks in the NFL Derek Carr and Marcus Mariota suffered broken fibulas during Week 16. For Carr, the tackle that caused the injury was the first time he had been touched by a defensive player all game. In the same game Andrew Luck was under pressure on 50% of his drop-backs.
Since the playoffs began in 1933, no Quarterback with 12+ regular-season wins has failed to start a postseason game. A really tough injury for the Raiders hopes in the post-season and when you look down the list of quarterbacks set to play in the AFC play-offs you realise that over and above anything remaining healthy is the best predictor of success
The Raiders, mentioned above, will start Matt McGloin at quarterback and the Dolphins Matt Moor in the AFC play-offs. Add to those teams the Texans moving to back up Tom Savage and the Chiefs quarterback Alex Smith, a “game manager”. The net result is a huge advantage for the Patriots (with all time great Tom Brady) and the Steelers (with Super-bowl winner Ben Roethlisberger) in this field, irrespective of the roster construction elsewhere of the other play-off teams.
Brodders Football Analysis
If you had bet £10 a point (average bet £150) on all Brodders’ bets this year you would be winning over £15000
Sign up to Brodders match analysis and recommended bets here for £50 a month. You are free to cancel at any time.
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Euro & other Football by Brodders (monthly) |
- The Euros 2016 for subscribers. Results: +£4,098.30 (betting £10 a point, average bet about £150) +ROI 31.43%
- Long term profit over 3 years. Following all bets subscribers are winning £20,216 (£10 a point, average bet £150) +ROI 5.71%
Bookmaker reviews and advice
Getting the best price available is very important for all those who take their betting seriously.
Please open an account with all those bookmakers on the page on this link that you do not already have an account with using the links provided.
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
£10 per point on every recommended bet since launch in Feb 2013 would be winning £34,185 (as at 26th October 2016)
All bets have an ROI +4.75% and Horse Racing has a ROI of +6.84%
A £4000 bank (see FAQ re bank-roll requirements) betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £38, 185 an 855% increase
The Road to Riches: Christmas Week
Merry Christmas: Coming Up this weekend
- Football. A crowded Christmas Premier League programme begins on Boxing Day.
- NFL Week Sixteen of the NFL regular season includes ten divisional games in the penultimate week of the regular season.
- Racing Boxing Day jumps meetings at Kempton, Fontwell, Huntingdon, Market Rasen, Sedgfield, Wetherby and Wincanton and Wolverhampton on the all-weather.
- Cricket, the Boxing Day Test in Melbourne, Australia v Pakistan.
NFL: The Play-Offs and Super Bowl LI
Playoff package includes: 7th/8th January: Wildcard games, 14th/15th January: Divisional Playoffs, 22nd January: Conference Playoffs
Super Bowl package includes all Neil's Super Bowl game analysis PLUS all his infamous prop bets.
|
NFL Playoffs (Jan 7th - 22nd 2017) |
|
|
Super Bowl LI, Houston, Texas (Sunday Feb 5th 2017) - Includes all of Neil's prop bets on the Super Bowl. |
Australian Open Tennis by Nigel Seeley
|
Australian Open Tennis Championships (Jan 16th - 29th 2017) |
The full package is £50 and includes the outrights, all Nigel's match analysis and details of all the bets that we have.
Nigel is an excellent long term winner on the tennis with an ROI +3.84%. If you had bet £10 a point on all darts bets on this website since we launched 3 years ago you would be winning £1299.90
Free Tip by Neil Channing
The King George at Kempton 3.15pm Boxing Day
Generally speaking I like to give you a Road to Riches horse tip in a race where we can get stuck in each-way and get a big price. I did think about working on the Welsh National but given that we don't really know exactly who will run yet I thought I'd focus instead on the King George. I definitely had been hoping that the big race on Boxing Day would have eight or nine runners and I might have been very tempted by Tea for Two each-way. Although I quite like that horse it would have to improve massively to beat both Thistlecrack and Cue Card or they'd have to both run below form. I think he'd probably prefer soft ground too. Given that there are only two places available now he ranks a terrible place bet as do pretty much all of these. You might think that with two short priced horses and a terrible profile for the place part of bets that I'd just skip this one but I actually think there is a fairly obvious bet that we ought to be able to get on easily and which is good value.
Having ruled out Tea for Two let's quickly go through the other runners.
Silviniaco Conti has quite a few miles on the clock these days and although it loves it round here the horse probably needs softer ground and I'd be pretty shocked if he won. Josses Hill used to attract a lot of rude comments. It was once said he "jumps like a snooker table" which I thought was rather good, (he used to kind of belly-flop over the fences landing a bit flat). I think he's really improved now and I wouldn't be that surprised if he won but he would have to find at least a stone and that would also mean he'd need the two Tizzard horses to run badly. The stable are in great form and he could win the battle for 3rd or even possibly grab 2nd.
It's not too original to say that this race is between the "big two" but I do think the prices on them are not quite right and that we can have a value bet.
Thistlecrack is a lovely horse who could easily improve and turn into a superstar. He might well win this and then go to Cheltenham and win the Gold Cup. I think the price on him starting that journey here is way too short though. This horse has run just four times over fences, he'll need to improve at least half a stone which he could easily do, he'll need to prove that he jumps just as well going right-handed as all four chases have been on left-handed courses and he'll also have to hope that Cue Card doesn't run to his absolute best. It's definitely possible that he handles the course, Cue Card doesn't run to his best and that he improves a bit but I'd want nearer 5/2 than 11/8 about the chance of those things happening.
If we bet Cue Card we have a solid horse that is a fair bit better than all of these on their best form, who loves it round here and who has had this as a target for a while. If it was good to soft I'd make it even shorter but I do think he ought to be an odds-on favourite and he is the only runner that could run a little less than his best form and still win. At 5/4 it's not the best bet I've ever seen but I do think it offers a bit of value and spotting +ev situations and repeatedly betting them is what makes you money over the year.
I would mention that I always vary my stakes according to how much value I think I'm getting and just because the price is shorter than bets I sometimes tip I certainly won't just have double on unless I think it's double as good a bet.
I'm having 12 Points win Cue Card at 5/4 with Skybet, Paddy Power, Ladbrokes and on the exchanges.
Win or lose I hope it is a great race and it helps make it a wonderful Christmas to all Betting Emporium fans.
Trumped....
The forthcoming Donald Trump presidency presents challenges to US sport in a number of areas including Los Angeles’ bid to host the 2024 Olympics, plans to bid for the 2026 FIFA World Cup and the global expansion plans of the US’ three biggest sport leagues: the NFL, NBA and MLB.
In September 2017 the IOC will be choosing between Los Angeles, Paris and Budapest as the host city for 2024. “I don’t want us to be a country that is focused inwards, I think we have to look outward to the world.” Los Angeles’ mayor, Eric Garcetti said in August about the bid. Los Angeles’ chances must have weakened with Trump’s election. IOC president Thomas Bach spoke in the summer about a "world of selfishness where certain people claim to be superior to others". That was seen as a clear reference to Trump's proposed plans that include potential restrictions on Muslim immigration and the deportation of millions of illegal immigrants. The charismatic Bill Clinton was a key component of the last successful US city bid, for the 1996 Atlanta games, and Trump will become a crucial factor in LA's attempt to host the Games.
Plans for the US, Canada and Mexico’s collaborative bid to host the 2026 FIFA World Cup might be off the table. Due to Donald Trump repeatedly threatening to send illegal Mexicans back to their country and have a wall built and funded by Mexico, a collaboration between only the US and Canada sounds more rational. World Cup bids only succeed with firm government backing and solid financial guarantees. It's difficult to imagine there would be a friendly atmosphere of co-operation over a joint tournament with such big issues being argued over at senior levels within the US and potential partner governments.
America’s biggest sports are thriving to become more international. The NFL, NBA and MLB have already played matches in other countries, for example, in London, Barcelona, Rio de Janeiro and Mexico City. Trump’s plan to cut international ties that don’t profit America, ending several trade deals, might interfere with this prospect. Would countries such as China, facing possible tariffs, be open to hosting games for the principal benefit of US franchises and permitting beneficial tax arrangements for visiting teams and leagues?
There are a couple of big domestic issues for US sport under a Trump presidency too. Sports franchises across America can apply for state-aid to help fund new stadiums, using taxpayers' money to improve their infrastructure. The practice has cost the US treasury $4.8bn since 1997. Politicians are convinced the enhanced employment prospects justify using tax-empty bonds for stadiums, even though franchises benefit significantly as a result. Trump ( a former owner of a team in the now defunct USFL) has a close relationship with several owners of NFL teams and will have been lobbied hard about the chasm the removal of third-party investment (suggested by Obama) would leave.
There is another implication for the NFL. The NFL have long acknowledged a direct link between the sport and conditions which can lead to depression and memory loss and have funded multi-million pound studies into concussion. Concussion protocols in the professional game do not specify when players can return after a head blow, but that five steps must be taken before an individual can be cleared. At youth level, no step can be completed within less than 24 hours.
During a Trump rally in Florida earlier this year, a woman in the front row fainted before returning to watch his speech. "The woman was out cold and now she's coming back," Trump said. "See? We don't go by these new, and very much softer, NFL rules. Concussion. Oh, oh! Got a little ding on the head. No, no, you can't play for the rest of the season. Our people are tough."
One health professional commented after the rally: "Calling out the NFL is worrisome. To say that they're not 'manning up' is one of the worst things, because of the negative influence that can have on kids. Kids want to be tough, they don't want to let their team-mates down. And if kids don't seek treatment because of those kinds of comments, that'll just cause problems in the end."
Brodders Football Analysis
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Euro & other Football by Brodders (monthly) |
- The Euros 2016 for subscribers. Results: +£4,098.30 (betting £10 a point, average bet about £150) +ROI 31.43%
- Long term profit over 3 years. Following all bets subscribers are winning £20,216 (£10 a point, average bet £150) +ROI 5.71%
Bookmaker reviews and advice
Getting the best price available is very important for all those who take their betting seriously.
Please open an account with all those bookmakers on the page on this link that you do not already have an account with using the links provided.
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
£10 per point on every recommended bet since launch in Feb 2013 would be winning £34,185 (as at 26th October 2016)
All bets have an ROI +4.75% and Horse Racing has a ROI of +6.84%
A £4000 bank (see FAQ re bank-roll requirements) betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £38, 185 an 855% increase
The Road to Riches: Weekend of 17th-18th December
Coming Up this weekend
- Football. The Premier League programme includes Manchester City v Arsenal
- NFL Week Fifteen of the NFL regular season includes the New England Patriots at the Denver Broncos.
- Racing includes jumps meetings at Ascot, Haydock and Newcastle and on the all-weather Lingfield.
- Cricket, the fifth test between India and England in Chennai continues.
- Rugby Union, the fourth round of pool matches in the European Champions Cup.
PDC World Darts Championship (15th Dec to 2nd Jan) by Nigel Seeley
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PDC World Darts Championship 2016 |
The full package is £50. An outright preview was published earlier this week and there are ongoing daily updates with all of Nigel's match analysis giving details of all the bets that we are having.
Nigel is an excellent long term winner on the darts with an ROI +5.4%. If you had bet £10 a point on all darts bets on this website since we launched 3 years ago you would be winning £1466.90
Free Tip
European Champions Cup Rugby Pool Match Connacht v Wasps (Saturday 5.30pm)
Connacht were right in the first game these teams played last weekend at 17-20 after an hour, missed a kick to draw level and Wasps, helped by a strong bench, pulled away in the last quarter to record a bonus point win and top the group. It could be a different story in Galway this weekend, a very tough place for visiting teams to play in December weather. The Galway Sportsgrounds are open and facilities are rudimentary and the supporters are raucous and passionate. Connacht had a big advantage at scrum-time in the first match and will be looking to exert pressure on Wasps and keep their dangerous back line on the back foot. Wasps are brilliant with ball in hand but that wasn't easy for long stretches last week with the pack going backwards.
Obviously this is a quick turnaround to tomorrow's game and Wasps have been priced up as 1/2 favourites, Connacht 2/1 in a place and 15/8 underdogs generally at home. Connacht +5 at 10/11 is tempting. I think at a minimum it will be very close and am going to recommend Connacht at 2/1. Wasps have Toulouse at home and Zebre away to come, bonus point wins in those games should win them the pool. A bonus point loss here (lose by less than seven points) wouldn't be the end of the world, whereas Connacht are going to be all guns blazing at home to win it. In his press conference this week Connacht coach Pat Lam said "Without a doubt this game is massively important in the context of our European ambitions."
The Wasps coach Dai Young meanwhile was alluding to the challange and tempering expectations a touch
"We are well aware of the huge challenge ahead of us, against a quality side, at a very difficult place to play. Connacht Rugby have a really passionate set of supporters and we are expecting it to be a fantastic atmosphere, as it always is at the Sportsground. We also expect the weather conditions to be as testing as they normally are in December, so we will need to be efficient with possession and any opportunities that come our way.
“We were really pleased to pick up five points last weekend and I’m sure Connacht were disappointed not to come away with anything. However, I imagine they left confident that they will be able to get something out of this Saturday’s game, having caused us plenty of problems last week. We can’t give them as much ball as we did at the Ricoh Arena. We’ll need to secure more possession and cause them more problems ball in hand than we did then. We know we’ll need to be better than we were last week if we’re to get a result”
10 points Connacht to beat Wasps 2/1 Coral, 15/8 generally
** next week, King George free tips for Boxing Day from Neil**
Goals! (part 2)
Last Saturday set a Premier League record with 29 goals on a match day with six games or fewer. Every home team scored three or more, two games had five goals and two games had six goals. Over the ten matches across the weekend, 36 goals were scored.
Pundits have had a field day. In national newspaper columns this week Ian Wright has called the standard of Premier League defending “appalling and laughable” while Stan Collymore has lamented that “proper defenders” are a “dying breed”.
As of last Sunday from 146 matches played so far this season, 427 goals have been scored, an average of 2.9 goals per match (up to 2009 2.5-2.6 goals per game was the norm across a season). If the present ratio were maintained, the 2016/17 season would finish with 1,111 goals, almost 50 more than the 1,066 in the previous highest-scoring season, in 2011/12.
The number of goals scored in each Premier League game has risen 8% since 2001-02. It’s not a solely English league phenomenon either. Champions League games have seen 16% more goals per game since 2006-07 One of the reasons goals-per-game has gone up in the Champions League is that the gulf in quality between the best and the worst sides has increased and so there are more one sided games, a process exacerbated by the introduction of the Champions Path to qualification in 2009 and more mismatches in the group stages. In this season's group stage there were a record 14 games in which a side has won by four or more goals.
A few weeks ago I postulated that a combination of pressing tactics, the changing financial landscape giving a broader spread of talent across the league (so more teams go for it, fewer set out to shut up shop) and the standard of defending were all part of the trend towards higher goals per game.
Looking at defending specifically the past two weekends have seen the issues writ large. Manchester City have kept two clean sheets all season and prior to the midweek game this week had conceded seven goals in two games and seem to be employing the little used “false number one” tactic. Liverpool have kept three clean sheets all season and allowed Bournemouth to score four a fortnight ago with only limited attempts to “sit” on a lead and see a game out.
Changes to the offside law in 2009 have contributed to a more open and progressive game but over and above that defenders and goalkeepers are no longer selected just for their ability to stop opposing attackers but also for their passing ability (here’s looking at you, John Stones) and that seems to have led to a drop-off in the basic skills of defending.
Defenders lacking technical ability can be exposed by an opponent playing the high press that is in fashion across European football. This is not a problem that can be rectified by a return to a more old-fashioned style of defensive defender as they will not be selected in some teams unless they are also good on the ball.
The result is exciting game after exciting game. Great for the neutral but frustrating for those who celebrate the art of defending
Brodders Football Analysis
If you had bet £10 a point (average bet £150) on all Brodders’ bets this year you would be winning over £15000
Sign up to Brodders match analysis and recommended bets here for £50 a month. You are free to cancel at any time.
|
Euro & other Football by Brodders (monthly) |
- The Euros 2016 for subscribers. Results: +£4,098.30 (betting £10 a point, average bet about £150) +ROI 31.43%
- Long term profit over 3 years. Following all bets subscribers are winning £20,216 (£10 a point, average bet £150) +ROI 5.71%
Bookmaker reviews and advice
Getting the best price available is very important for all those who take their betting seriously.
Please open an account with all those bookmakers on the page on this link that you do not already have an account with using the links provided.
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
£10 per point on every recommended bet since launch in Feb 2013 would be winning £34,185 (as at 26th October 2016)
All bets have an ROI +4.75% and Horse Racing has a ROI of +6.84%
A £4000 bank (see FAQ re bank-roll requirements) betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £38, 185 an 855% increase
The Road To Riches: Weekend of 10th-11th December
Coming Up this weekend
- Football. The Premier League programme includes Manchester United v Tottenham Hotspur.
- NFL Week Fourteen of the NFL regular season includes the Dallas Cowboys at the New York Giants on Monday Night football.
- Racing includes jumps meetings at Cheltenham, Doncaster and Lingfield and on the all-weather at Newcastle and Wolverhampton.
- Golf, on the European tour the UBS Hong Kong Open and on the USPGA the Franklin Templeton Shootout.
- Cricket, the fourth test between India and England in Mumbai continues.
- Rugby Union, the latest round of pool matches in the European Champions Cup.
PDC World Darts Championship (15th Dec to 2nd Jan) by Nigel Seeley
|
PDC World Darts Championship 2016 |
The full package is £50 and includes the outrights, all Nigel's match analysis and details of all the bets that we have.
Nigel is an excellent long term winner on the darts with an ROI +5.4%. If you had bet £10 a point on all darts bets on this website since we launched 3 years ago you would be winning £1466.90
Free Tip
European Rugby Champions Cup Rugby Wasps v Connacht Sunday 1pm (Sky Sports 2)
This is a key game in Pool 2. Connacht won the Pro 12 last year, a rare achievement for the smallest of the Irish rugby provinces thay was long viewed by the IRFU as a feeder side to the likes of Leinster and Munster and almost folded just over a decade ago. Irish Provinces are currently limited to four non-Irish eligible (NIE) players and one non-Irish qualified player ("Project Player"). Connacht Rugby is exempted from this under a separate development arrangement and that has helped accelerate their improvement greatly. They have played two won two so far in this season’s ERCC (a narrow home win against Toulouse, a big win in Italy against Zebre). This is their toughest test against the pool favourites, last season’s semi-finalists, who put 82 points on Zebre at home in the first game then scored a last gasp try to get a draw at Toulouse in late October.
Wasps need to win, preferably denying the visitors a losing bonus point ahead of the reverse fixture in Galway next week that is likely to decide the pool. Domestic form doesn’t point to anything other than a home win. Connacht are not the force of last year, lying 8th (of 12) in the Pro 12 league while Wasps are second only to Saracens in the Aviva Premiership despite a season blighted by injury.
Wasps are an exciting team to watch. High scoring potential with renowned attacking ability and in their favour the weather forecast is ok for Sunday. Their plan will be to win the key battles up front and exploit spaces later in the game. In the two games against Connacht bonus points are going to be crucial. In the ERCC sides earn 1 try bonus point for scoring four or more tries, and 1 losing bonus point for being defeated by seven points or fewer. Here Wasps will have their eye on the former, Connacht the latter as every point is going to count with the possibility of only one team from the pool going through to the last eight.
Wasps sit second in the Aviva despite missing big name players for chunks of the current season. Elliott Daly is currently banned after being sent off for England whilst all of Joe Launchbury, Danny Cipriani, Jimmy Gopperth, Kyle Eastmond and Christian Wade have been absent too. They are getting heathlier though. Fly-half Gopperth (a nerveless goal-kicker) and wing Christian Wade play this game while Launchbury is back from suspension. The talented Australian back Kurtley beale was a marquee signing in the summer then suffered a knee injury a day later. He has been in full training for a fortnight and is selected at inside centre for Sunday.
Betting markets for the game tell us that Wasps should win. Wasps are 15 point favourites on the handicap and prohibitively priced on the outright. They key point here is, as the probably better side but sitting second in the pool and going to Ireland next week where the realistic target will be a win and no more ( try bonus points being far less likely ) they have to keep their foot on the gas and go for four tries plus and a win by more than 7 points to stop Connacht earning a bonus point of their own.
Connacht are a combative, their backs (notably star player Bundee Aki a New Zealander in the centre) can create plenty and they are competitive up front but man for man Wasps are the superior side. Unlike last week, hoping for no careless interception tries late on to sink a winning margin bet...
10 points Wasps to win by 11-20 points 9/4 Coral
Bonus Time
Six Nations organisers will test a system that rewards try-scoring and narrow defeats in an effort to promote attacking rugby in the 2017 Championship starting in February. Bonus points systems are commonplace in major rugby competitions for example The Rugby Championship and European Rugby Champuions Cup but until now the Six Nations has resisted them
Here's how the 2017 Six Nations will work:
Winning a match:
- Four points for any win
- An extra point if winning side score four tries or more
Losing a match:
- No points for a defeat
- But losing team can collect a bonus point for scoring four tries or more
- OR if they lose by a margin of seven points or less
Drawing a match:
- Two points each
- An extra point for each side that scores four tries or more
The Grand Slam:
A country than wins all five matches and achieves a Six Nations Grand Slam, will be awarded a further three match points. This prevents them winning the Grand Slam with no bonus points (20 points), but coming second to a team with four bonus-point wins and a bonus-point defeat (22 points).
The system will be reviewed afterwards to determine whether it should be adopted permanently. Most past winners would have remained the same with bonus points factored in, but England would have won the 2013 title rather than Wales.
There has long since been opposition to bonus points in the six nations as the six teams compete on a home or away basis, for each campaign half play three of their five matches at home with the other half playing three on the road. The stumbling block has always the same: the imbalance of home matches. The championship is not a league where teams play each other home and away in the same season. This has the potential to produce some inequities.
Depending on the fixture list in a given year, a team might be playing in the wet in Edinburgh, whilst another trots out on a sunny day and a true surface in Rome. The Six Nations is such a short sprint to the line that such variables can have a disproportionate distorting effect with one team, perhaps, racking up try bonus points in one venue and being handicapped in that pursuit in another.
The decision comes a year after the northern nations failed to provide a World Cup semi-finalist. The rise of Argentina since they began competing in the Rugby Championship was compared with Italy, who have made little progress in the 16 years playing in the Six Nations.
The average number of tries per match in last year’s Six Nations, a particularly stodgy renewal of the Championship, was 4.7 compared to 5.8 in the Rugby Championship. Whether bonus points are a panacea for conservative rugby remains to be seen though. The Championship is frequently played in bad weather and on heavy pitches and in terms of tactics defensive schemes have become much more robust across the major nations. At the lower end of the Six Nations there is also a paucity of flair and talent compared to the Southern hemisphere nations.
Still, the hope is that bonus points reward try-scoring and an attacking style of play that will deliver more tries and greater rewards for fans and players alike and still lead to the drama of the last weekend of the six nations where three games are played con currently and often the title winner is not know until the final whistle on that last afternoon
Brodders Football Analysis
If you had bet £10 a point (average bet £150) on all Brodders’ bets this year you would be winning over £15000
Sign up to Brodders match analysis and recommended bets here for £50 a month. You are free to cancel at any time.
|
Euro & other Football by Brodders (monthly) |
- The Euros 2016 for subscribers. Results: +£4,098.30 (betting £10 a point, average bet about £150) +ROI 31.43%
- Long term profit over 3 years. Following all bets subscribers are winning £20,216 (£10 a point, average bet £150) +ROI 5.71%
Bookmaker reviews and advice
Getting the best price available is very important for all those who take their betting seriously.
Please open an account with all those bookmakers on the page on this link that you do not already have an account with using the links provided.
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
£10 per point on every recommended bet since launch in Feb 2013 would be winning £34,185 (as at 26th October 2016)
All bets have an ROI +4.75% and Horse Racing has a ROI of +6.84%
A £4000 bank (see FAQ re bank-roll requirements) betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £38, 185 an 855% increase
