The Road to Riches Weekend of 17th-18th September

Coming Up this weekend

- Football. The Premier League programme includes Chelsea v Liverpool on Friday night

- NFL Week Two of the new NFL regular season includes five divisional match ups including the Cowboys at the Redskins and the Dolphins at the Patriots.

- Racing, on the flat at Ayr, Catterick, Newbury, Newmarket and Wolverhampton

- Formula One, the Singapore Grand Prix

- Golf, on the European Tour the Italian Open in Milan

- Tennis, Davis Cup World Group Semi-finals including Great Britain v Argentina in Glasgow

- Rugby Union, the fourth round of Rugby Championship games. New Zealand v South Africa in Christchurch and Australia v Argentina in Perth on Saturday

- Cricket, Warwickshire v Surrey in the Royal London One Day Cup Final at Lords

Free Tip- Rugby Special

Rugby Championship Australia v Argentina 11am UK Time Saturday

The fourth round of the Rugby Championship takes place this weekend, and in Perth Australia host Argentina. So far in the series the Australians were convincingly beaten by the All Blacks home and away before they came from 14-3 down to beat South Africa in Brisbane last weekend.Argentina meanwhile narrowly lost in South Africa in round 1 before winning the reverse fixture at home a week later. They then lost in New Zealand last week.

For this game Australia are 1/3 Argentina 100/30 and Australia 10 point handicap favourites. A conservative bet I could certainly justify would be Argentina +10. 

Argentine rugby is in the middle of a transformational stage. A few years ago a side playing Argentina would be assured of a few things. The forwards would be massive. A fly half would kick penalties from everywhere and the backs would come off the pitch in kit as pristine as when it left the wrapper. Playing the Pumas was hugely physical but in scoreboard terms the only way they were going to hurt you was with the boot or if you didn't match them up front.

A couple of years before the 2015 RWC though a change of philosophy emerged with new coaches and a desire to become competitive on the world stage which coincided with their entry into this competition in 2012. The change in Argentine rugby since has been thrilling to watch, including reaching the 2015 rugby world cup semi-final playing some great stuff, attacking from everywhere on the field. Whilst their forwards are still huge, the new generation have developed ball playing skills and given the side a real "all court" presence.

Argentina have only won a couple of games in the Rugby Championship in their first years in the competitition but they are getting closer all the time. An Argentine franchise in super rugby, Los Jaguares, for the first time last year is also giving their players regular exposure to top class rugby.

So far this year in round 1 Argentina led South Africa 13-10 at half time and 23-13 with ten minutes to go, and lost. In round 2 they led South Africa 23-13 with twenty minutes to go and went behind, winning with a late penalty. In Round 3 they led New Zealand early and trailed only 24-19 at half time before getting stuffed in the second half and losing by 35.

Since Australia reached the 2015 Rugby World cup final their form has slipped back, losing a series 3-0 to England earlier in our summer and their come from behind win against South Africa last weekend was their first test win for 9 months. It was only in the second half of that game where they looked something like their old selves but they remain injury hit and lacking a distinctive style of play. Argentina could get very close this weekend.

The suggestion i am going to make here is more speculative than Argentina +10 or even Argentina outright but it does i think play into Argentina being more competitive than ever at this level, their attacking intent meaning they can put up points especially early and Australia's difficulties. At the same time we have to acknowledge that they are less of a threat late in games when lack of bench strength comes into play. It is Argentina half time/Australia full time at 6/1.  

8 points Argentina Half-Time/Australia Full-Time 6/1 Coral or BetVictor

Lions Made.

Last week Wales coach Warren Gatland was named as Head Coach of the 2017 British Lions Tour to New Zealand. The task ahead is arguably the toughest any Lions coach has ever faced. Rugby jounalist Stephen Jones described it as “mission impossible" in last week's Sunday Times.

There are many factors that make this tour so tough and Gatland was an obvious choice. He’s been successful on both the club and international stage winning European and Premiership titles with Wasps as well as Grand Slams with Wales. Plus of course he’s been involved with the Lions before coaching on the 2009 South Africa tour before leading the 2013 team to a first Lions series win in 16 years.

The schedule for next summer has been described as “ludicrous”. This is mainly because no one, either Northern hemisphere clubs/home unions and competition organisers or New Zealand rugby, was willing to compromise on the timing of the tour. New Zealand would not consider moving the tour back a couple of weeks to give the Lions time to prepare and neither the Aviva Premiership nor the Guinness Pro12 would move their finals forward. A huge contingent of the squad are likely to be playing for their clubs just a week before the first game of the tour. At the end of a hard season (leading players typically play 50+ games in a season) and with scant preparation time the squad simply will not have the time to prepare adequately.

A simple solution would be to scrap the play-offs in Lions year reducing the season by two weeks or cancel the Anglo-Welsh Cup in those seasons. Or turn the screw on the host country, which makes millions from these tours in match revenue, broadcasting rights, sponsorship and beyond that tourism.

For the moment as the Lions tour manager said at the Gatland announcement "All of rugby is tugging in different directions” and the administration of the game simply isn't joined up and lags the professional game as it has developed on the pitch by several years.

Brodders Football Analysis

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Euro & other Football by Brodders (monthly)

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- The Euros 2016 for subscribers. Results: +£4,098.30 (betting £10 a point, average bet about £150) +ROI 31.43%

- Long term profit over 3 years. Following all bets subscribers are winning £13,453 (£10 a point, average bet £150) +ROI 4.34%

Bookmaker reviews and advice

Getting the best price available is very important for all those who take their betting seriously.

Please open an account with all those bookmakers on the page on this link that you do not already have an account with using the links provided.

There are literally hundreds of pounds on offer from bookmakers just for signing up through Bettingemporium.com

Betting Emporium results

The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS

£10 per point on every recommended bet since launch in Feb 2013 would be winning £24,581 (as at 11^th August 2016)

All bets have an ROI +3.77% and Horse Racing has a ROI of +5.48%

A £4000 bank (see FAQ re bank-roll requirements) betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £28, 581 a 614% increase

 

The Road to Riches: Weekend of 10th-11th September

Coming Up this weekend

- Football. The Premier League returns including the Manchester derby at Old Trafford on Saturday lunchtime

- NFL Week One of the new NFL regular season

- Racing, on the flat at Bath, Chester, Doncaster (including the St Leger), Lingfield and Musselburgh

- Golf, On the USPGA the BMW Championship at Crooked Stick and on the European Tour the KLM Open in the Netherlands

- Tennis, the finals of the US Open

- Rugby Union, the new Aviva Premiership season continues including Leicester v Wasps on Saturday and Exeter v Saracens on Sunday

2016-2017 NFL Content

Ahead of the new season we have published two articles this week, ante-post outrights and player specials and “what to expect for the regular season”. Neil Channing’s coverage begins with week one of the regular season

FREE	NFL 2016 - What to Expect for the regular season
£100	NFL 2016 - Neil's picks (weeks 1 -17)
FREE	NFL 2016 - Outrights and Specials by Tighty

---

Free NFL Tip

Occasional NFL Specials Free tips intended to complement Neil's work through the season

San Diego Chargers at Kansas City Chiefs (Sunday 6pm)

A few basics first. When looking at First touchdown scorer markets we ideally want to see three things:

a) We are backing a player on the home team

b) We are backing a favoured team, preferably a strongly favoured team

c) There is an element to the offense/defense match up that suggests a mismatch in the relative strengths and weaknesses of the sides.

Just to expand on point a), why would we favour the home team player? Whilst its not always the case, away teams will frequently defer if winning the toss and allow the home team to get the ball first. For two reasons a) the crowd is at is loudest at the start of the game (somewhere like Arrowhead, home of the Chiefs this particularly applies) so it can be difficult to run an offense and b) they then get the ball to start the second half when i) you have first chance to put in place the half time adjustments and ii) the crowd can be at its quietest before everyone gets back to their seats.

So why might the Chiefs at home to the Chargers be a game to look at in touchdown markets? Firstly the Chiefs, who reached the second round of the play offs last year are seven point favourites against their divisional rivals who,injury hit in 2015, finished with the third worst record in the NFL.

Looking at potential match-ups, The Chiefs are a reasonably conservative offensive side. Ranked 6th (of 32) in rushing last season and 30th in receiving. Their QB Alex Smith is a game manager who isn't known for producing big plays and the staple of the offense is dink and dunk in the receiving game and power running up front. The arrival of Jeremy Maclin and some recent draft picks at receiver gives some more big play potential but philosophically this is a blue collar offense.

The Chargers on defense ranked 23rd last season, and 27th against the rush. Drafting high back in April they sought to help their defense out by selecting Joey Bosa at the third pick of the draft, but he has held out all summer with a contract disagreement. This is recently resolved but he won't play this game.On the other side of the ball, were the Chargers to get the ball first they go against the Chiefs defense, third ranked in the league last year and a formidable unit.

So turning to players, which Chief should we be looking at? Last season the superstar running back Jamaal Charles went down with his second major ACL injury and was lost for the season. He has been recovering but remained out for most of training camp and this week coach Andy Reid has said that he is not ready to return and will be "limited at best" this week. In Charles' absence last season Charcandrick West took over and before Week 8 Spencer Ware (previously released by the Seahawks) was activated from the Chiefs practice squad. In the second half of the season, backing up West, he came on strongly with 403 yards rushing on 72 attempts and 6 rushing touchdowns. In his two games against the Chargers last year, he rushed for 148 yards on 19 carries and scored two touchdowns.

Ware impressed in training camp and pre-season games. He has also added a receiving element to his game, catching eight passes in three preseason appearances after catching six passes total last season. He's shaping up to be a "three down back" so we should get maximum bang for our buck in terms of the number of snaps he is on the field for. Reading through reports from the Kansas City beat writers, the expectation is that Ware will be hammered at the suspect San Diego defensive front. 

First touchdown bets are inevitably high variance. A lot of things need to go right and strike rates can be low as we all know, certainly compared to lower variance options like "anytime touchdown scorer".  For first touchdown bets I like to follow the simple rules at the start of this write up to try to ensure we have a few variables in our favour in terms of match-ups and likely game flow. Given those apply here, we'll start the season off as follows:

7 points Spencer Ware First Touchdown scorer Kansas City Chiefs v San Diego Chargers at 6-1 with Bet365

I've run out of time waiting for First touchdown scorer prices to go up across the market (apart from Bet365 and a few smaller firms). You could see some 13/2 or 7/1 in the next 48 hours, but will record for our records at 6/1

It only takes one domino to fall….

A few weeks ago published my annual NFL ante-post column in which I stated

“Last year I was reminded more than any other year that this is a very physical game with enormous injury risks. These are impossible to predict except in the sense that you know they are going to happen across the league”

In the final few weeks of the pre-season since, this has once again been a major issue with implications on several of the suggested bets

Firstly I suggested that the Dallas Cowboys could be the NFL’s highest scoring team at 20-1, highlighting that the running game should be extremely good and that if teams concentrated on stopping that with Romo and Bryant fit again then the prospect of single coverage on the outside could mean that the offense was extremely difficult to stop. Furthermore with the Dallas defense looking both sub-par and suspension hit, the team would have to score highly and shootouts were on the agenda.

I then wrote

“Now of course there is a huge caveat. Romo and Bryant have to remain fit.”

A week later, on an innocuous scramble in a pre-season game in Seattle, Cliff Avril tackled Romo on the third play of the game. Down he went, and out of the game. 24 hours later another back injury was confirmed with anything up to a 10 week absence from the line up as a recovery period

This thrusts 4^th round draft pick rookie Dak Prescott into the starting line up this Sunday and notwithstanding impressive performances in pre-season obviously has to affect the chances of the offense firing week in week out that the suggested bet needs. The play-calling will have to be simpler and more predictable. If he were to struggle, the Cowboys would put in Mark Sanchez who they picked up on waivers following his release from the Broncos. A competent enough “bus driver” quarterback and no more, he’d be unlikely to help the bet much

Other points related to the bet still apply. The running game should still be one of the pre-eminent units in the league and the defense still looks sub-standard. Interestingly the price in the “Highest Scoring Team” market is unchanged

Then last week in a midweek practice Vikings QB Teddy Bridgewater went down with a non-contact injury that immediately looked serious. Indeed it was, diagnosed the next day as a tibiofemoral dislocation and ruptured ACL that ended his season and possibly worse than that given the severity of the injury. I made the mistake of looking up "tibiofemoral dislocation", just so you didn't have to. Don't.

Previously I had recommended the Vikings to beat the Packers to the NFC North division title at 2-1. This news led to the Vikings going to 5-1 for the division.

The Vikings, with the prospect of a deep post-season run looking less likely having to roll out a back up at QB for the season in their first year in a new stadium acted quickly. They traded two of next year’s draft picks including their first round pick to the Eagles for QB Sam Bradford (with whom the Vikings offensive co-ordinator has worked previously).

A heavy price to pay for a starting quarterback but probably indicative that the Vikings think they are close to having an extremely good team (offensive skill group players upgraded, terrific looking defense) and their window for success might be quite short (Adrian Peterson is 32). Fortunately we are only concerned with this season and not the effects of the trade longer term, which i would argue are negative, mortgaging the future a touch to win now.

The Vikings price came in again, now 3/1 best and, if the rest of the roster is as advertised (I think it is) and if Bradford is much of a muchness with Bridgewater (which could be argued) we should be going in again.

Over and above these two big pieces of news for our ante-post book (at least last year we waited for the regular season games to get hit by injuries…) there are knock-on effects to the rest of our book.

For example:

- Will the Vikings go back to emphasising the run, making it more likely that Peterson leads the league in rushing?

- What does a Romo less Cowboys mean for Ezekiel Elliott’s usage and rushing stats? Is he durable enough to cope in his rookie season? Does it make him more or less likely to be offensive rookie of the year?

- Romo's injury presumably helps the NY Giants to win the NFC East bet, and we'll have a better idea about that after Sunday's Giants at Cowboys game

In the NFL, it only takes one domino to fall…

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Brodders Football Analysis

Sign up to Brodders match analysis and recommended bets here for £50 a month. You are free to cancel at any time. Our 2016-17 Championship and Premier League previews are in the Brodders section for subscribers.

Euro & other Football by Brodders (monthly)

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- The Euros 2016 for subscribers. Results: +£4,098.30 (betting £10 a point, average bet about £150) +ROI 31.43%

- Long term profit over 3 years. Following all bets subscribers are winning £13,453 (£10 a point, average bet £150) +ROI 4.34%

Bookmaker reviews and advice

Getting the best price available is very important for all those who take their betting seriously.

Please open an account with all those bookmakers on the page on this link that you do not already have an account with using the links provided.

There are literally hundreds of pounds on offer from bookmakers just for signing up through Bettingemporium.com

Betting Emporium results

The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS

£10 per point on every recommended bet since launch in Feb 2013 would be winning £24,581 (as at 11^th August 2016)

All bets have an ROI +3.77% and Horse Racing has a ROI of +5.48%

A £4000 bank (see FAQ re bank-roll requirements) betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £28, 581 a 614% increase

 

 

The Road to Riches: Weekend of 3rd-4th September

Coming Up this weekend

- Football. The International break for the Premier League and England play their first 2018 World Cup qualifier in Slovakia on Sunday.

- Racing, flat meetings at Ascot, Haydock, Kempton, Thirsk and Wolverhampton. Stratford over the jumps.

- Golf, on the USPGA The Deutsche Bank championship at TPC Boston. On the European Tour the Omega European Masters at Crans-sur-Sierre in Switzerland.

- Tennis, the middle weekend of the US Open at Flushing Meadow.

- Cricket, the fifth and final ODI of the series between England and Pakistan at the SWALEC stadium in Cardiff.

- Formula One, the Italian Grand Prix at Monza.

- Rugby Union, the new Aviva Premiership and Pro-12 seasons begin.

2016-2017 NFL Content

Ahead of the new season we have published two articles this week, ante-post outrights and player specials and “what to expect for the regular season”. Neil Channing’s coverage begins with week one of the regular season

FREE	NFL 2016 - What to Expect for the regular season
£100	NFL 2016 - Neil's picks (weeks 1 -17)
FREE	NFL 2016 - Outrights and Specials by Tighty

Free tip by Neil Channing

Haydock 3.30pm Saturday (1m 6f Handicap)

The race that used to be called The Old Borough Cup is the best betting race of Saturday and as long as there aren't two non-runners it's a really good race for an each-way bet.

The going at Haydock has been discussed all week as it often is with a Clerk of the Course who often takes any excuse he can find to put yet more water down. Looking at the racing today though and factoring in a lack of rain I'll assume that we'll have good to firm ground for the race and nobody should have any massive excuses.

Seven of the seventeen runners are less than 20/1 and I'm going to focus on those to try and find a good each-way bet.

Gabrial's Star definitely stays and goes on any ground but this one is pretty exposed and I think he has enough weight.

Shrewd ran well to come 2nd in the Ebor but he has climbed the weights a fair bit and perhaps he won't enjoy this faster ground.

Walpole definitely wants rain and he may not even run if it's too fast. When I haven't seen them run over the trip I don't want to bet them each-way.

Magic Circle is the favourite and he will definitely get the trip as he stays 2m well. To me though this is too short in price for one that might struggle for pace against some of these.

Shakopee ran well enough to be 2nd over this trip on fastish ground at York and I think he looks solid enough. I wouldn't totally put you off backing him each-way if you fancy throwing a few darts but I have a slight worry about the form of the Luca Cumani stable, although they are sort of running Ok without winning. I also slightly worry that this one needs to come through off a fast pace and that might not be the type of race we get here and it might be tough to come late from the wide draw.

Montaly is a really interesting runner. The stable are doing really well and the horse will definitely stay as he's been running over much further. He didn't get home over a marathon 2m4f at Royal Ascot but ran Ok at Newbury. Again the worry might be that they don't go fast enough here and maybe he'd prefer a bit of cut in the ground but he does have decent Haydock form and I wouldn't mind a saver if I could get just a bit bigger than the current odds.

In the end I've settled on one bet and that is the only real front runner in this field. Intense Tango is ridden by Clifford Lee who is riding brilliantly and who won from the front on one today. The seven pounds you get for having this guy on board is totally unfair on the others. This mare is in great form, she stays well, she has won and run well here, she can win on any ground and she is a good price. I think she is a massive price.

I'm having 9 Points each-way Intense Tango at 14/1 1/4 1234 with Bet365, Hills and Ladbrokes (might get 16/1 if you're quick).

Winter is Coming

With the English International cricket season coming to its conclusion next week with a T20 international against Pakistan at Old Trafford thoughts turn to a tough winter schedule. This begins with a tour to Bangladesh in October (3 ODIs followed by 2 Tests) followed by a full series in India (5 Tests in December, 3 ODIs and 3 T20s in January/February)

Further out the schedule intensifies further. Next summer sees the ICC Champions Trophy in England and South Africa and the West Indies tour too. Next winter there is the Ashes tour to Australia. The result is 18 test matches in the 16 months from now, which is going to really challenge the players. England are a huge draw everywhere with their overseas following and commercial considerations appear paramount in an era where Test cricket is struggling to define its place in many countries, rather than a focus on the workload on the players.

A series in Bangladesh provides two challenges. Whilst the opposition is comparatively lowly ranked playing conditions are always specialised with dry slow pitches and spin friendly conditions. Furthermore off the field there have been security concerns about the tour

India is always a tough tour and this time Test venues at Rajkot, Mohali and Visakhapatnam alongside the major grounds in Mumbai and Chennai are going to provide a real test for a side long on seam bowling options and short of match-winning spin.

It flew under the radar somewhat in a crowded sporting summer but the Pakistan Test series just finished was possibly the best since the 2005 Ashes, two flawed sides playing to a 2-2 draw. England effectively took on Pakistan with seven cricketers. Finn took five wickets in the series at 70 runs each but the particular issue was the batting top five where Hales (145 runs at 18), Vince (158 at 22) and Ballance (195 at 27) all failed to deliver. Five times in eight innings England were dismissed between 207 and 328. Perhaps not in Bangladesh but certainly in India, that is not going to cut it.

On the upside thes team has a strong spine, including a lower-middle order to match anyone in the world. Alastair Cook and Joe Root are world class batsmen. Jonny Bairstow’s keeping improved and with the bat he is averaging 76 in Tests this year.

Moeen Ali’s batting finally produced result at test level though his bowling remains inconsistent and it’s hard to imagine India playing him as badly this winter as they did two summers ago. Chris Woakes was England’s man of the series. Completing the seven are Stuart Broad and Jimmy Anderson, though the next 18 months are going to be a huge physical challenge for two bowlers nearer the end of their test careers than the beginning.

Going into the winter England have the same issues they had at the start of the summer. Cook lacks a convincing opening partner in red ball cricket where technique rather than big hitting is so paramount, the middle order is lacking and there is no convincing spinner.

In the county game there is an abundance of young talent and some of it may be picked for the Bangladesh tour if senior players decide to give it a miss. Any of Haseeb Hameed (Lancs), Daniel Bell Drummond (Kent), Ben Duckett (Northants), Tom Westley and Nick Browne (Essex), the Curran brothers (Surrey) and Tom Abell (Somerset) could find themselves in a squad or two by the time the winter is done.

For India we may see a side packed with all-rounders, given our strength there. A middle order of Bairstow, Moeen and Stokes at 4-6 with a keeper at 7 then the bowlers looks sensible. It seems likely that Adil Rashid will be needed, but this line-up has plenty of seamers (Stokes, Woakes, Broad, Anderson) to make inroads.

This just leaves the tricky question of who would open alongside Cook and ahead of Root for the sub-continent. Hales probably but one of the newcomers above possibly in Bangladesh with an eye on India and further out having someone ready for the Ashes

A line up of Cook, Hales/youngster, Root, Bairstow, Moeen, Stokes, Buttler, Woakes, Rashid, Broad, Anderson gets the team through the winter wIth Wood, Finn, Dawson (third spinner), Hameed and Duckett in a squad too. The first squad for the Winter tours is announced next week, lets see how close this list is. 

Brodders Football Analysis

Sign up to Brodders match analysis and recommended bets here for £50 a month. You are free to cancel at any time. Our 2016-17 Championship and Premier League previews are in the Brodders section for subscribers.

Euro & other Football by Brodders (monthly)

£50 Sign Up Here

- The Euros 2016 for subscribers. Results: +£4,098.30 (betting £10 a point, average bet about £150) +ROI 31.43%

- Long term profit over 3 years. Following all bets subscribers are winning £13,453 (£10 a point, average bet £150) +ROI 4.34%

Bookmaker reviews and advice

Getting the best price available is very important for all those who take their betting seriously.

Please open an account with all those bookmakers on the page on this link that you do not already have an account with using the links provided.

There are literally hundreds of pounds on offer from bookmakers just for signing up through Bettingemporium.com

Betting Emporium results

The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS

£10 per point on every recommended bet since launch in Feb 2013 would be winning £24,581 (as at 11^th August 2016)

All bets have an ROI +3.77% and Horse Racing has a ROI of +5.48%

A £4000 bank (see FAQ re bank-roll requirements) betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £28, 581 a 614% increase

 

The Road to Riches Weekend of 27th-28th August

Coming Up this weekend

- Football. Premier League games include Tottenham v Liverpool and Manchester City v West Ham

- Racing, flat meetings at Newmarket, Goodwood, Beverley, Windsor and Redcar. Cartmel over the jumps

- Golf, on the USPGA the Barclays at Bethpage Black and on the European Tour Made in Denmark at Himmerland GC

- Tennis, in the run up to the US Open next week ATP Winston-Salem in North Carolina and WTAs Connecticut and Louisville

- Cricket, the second ODI between England and Pakistan at Lords and the Royal London One day Cup Semi-Finals

- Formula One, the Belgian Grand Prix at Spa-Francorchamps

- Rugby Union, the second weekend of the SANZAR Rugby Championship with New Zealand v Australia in Wellington and Argentina v South Africa in Salta

US Open Tennis August 29th to September 11th by Nigel Seeley

There will be an outright preview following the draw later today and the package includes all of Nigel's match analysis, write ups and details of the bets that we are having.

US Open Tennis (Aug 29th - Sep 11th 2016)

£50 Sign Up Here

2016-2017 NFL Content

Ahead of the new season we have published two articles this week, ante-post outrights and player specials and “what to expect for the regular season”. Neil Channing’s coverage begins with week one of the regular season

FREE	NFL 2016 - What to Expect for the regular season
£100	NFL 2016 - Neil's picks (weeks 1 -17)
FREE	NFL 2016 - Outrights and Specials by Tighty

---

Free tip

Royal London Cup Cricket semi finals

The two semi finals in the English domestic 50 over competition take place as follows this Bank Holiday Weekend

Sun 28th August Yorkshire v Surrey, Headingley

Mon 29^th August Warwickshire v Somerset, Edgbaston

These are four Division one County Championship sides fighting for a Lords final in September

Yorkshire, reigning county champions have improved their one day form substantially, reaching T20 finals day this year. Because of the clash with the England-Pakistan ODI series this weekend they are missing five players for this game:

Bairstow, Root, Willey, Rashid, Plunkett

Whilst they are competitive without these players, missing all five is a loss.

Surrey reached the final of this competition last year and lost to underdogs Gloucestershire. They will miss their most powerful batsman in the semi finals as Jason Roy is on England duty. Kumar Sangakkara produced a match-winning century in the quarter-finals and the batting line up will rely on him to produce again as it is lightweight in comparision to a deep and threatening bowling line up including the Curran brothers and a back to form Jade Dernbach.

In the other semi-final Somerset are a talented mix of veterans and young prospects. Jayawardene is the overseas player, Trego , Allenby and Hildreth are all effective county pros and these players fill four of the top five in the batting order. Abell, Overton and Davey are the youngsters progressing fast. They visit Warwickshire whose form has faded in the second half of the season but they are favourites at home at Edgbaston where dry/used August pitches suit their leading spinner Jeetan Patel, who is supported by one of the best one day bowling attacks around.

Outright odds for the RLODC Cup are as follows, taking mainstream bookmaker prices only:

Yorkshire 15/8

Warwicksire 11/4

Surrey 7/2

Somerset 4/1

For the semi finals themselves:

Yorkshire are priced at 8/13 to beat Surrey (7/5)

Warwickshire are priced at 8/11 to beat Somerset (5/4)

I can make a case for the underdog in both these semi-finals, but particularly Somerset. Somerset are a nicely balanced side. They topped their RLODC qualifying group with 6 wins and a no-result in 8 games, the best record across either group and thrashed Worcestershire in their quarter-final. At 4/1 in the outright they are priced effectively at 5/4 for both the semi and the final should they make it. In practice my view is that I want to be on them in their semi at odds-against and they probably should be odds-on if were they to meet Surrey at Lords, and underdogs to Yorkshire

I like them, as the market's outsider of the four teams, to win the competition as follows:

7 points Somerset to win the Royal London One Day Cup 4/1 Ladbrokes 7/2 generally (which we will record at for results purposes)

The Colour of Money

Team GB went to Rio with a UK Sport target of 48 medals. They passed that total with five days to spare and ended with 67 medals, becoming the first country to exceed medals won as a host four years before.

Team GB won a gold in 15 of the 31 different sports at the games. No other country came close to that breadth with the US second on 11 sports. Athletics joined swimming, diving, triathlon, Taekwando and gymnastics as sports where GB got more medals in Rio than London. Rowing and modern pentathlon ended Rio 2016 as the only sports not to hit.

Second place in the medal table was a bonus caused largely by China's decline since topping the table in Beijing. In Rio they finished nine golds and around 15 medals below projections. Over the longer term, the collapse of sports administration (and state doping programmes) in former USSR and Warsaw Pact countries has also had a marked effect.

In terms of the medal count our strength in multi-medal sports (rowing and cycling notably) and comparative under-representation in sports with fewer medals awarded (volleyball, handball, basketball for example) was another factor.

Team GB's improvement since Atlanta in 1996, where GB won one gold medal,  is the result of years of sustained investment into high-performance sport: In the last four years alone, the government and the national lottery have awarded UK Sport £274m of funds to channel into summer Olympic sports. A further £72m has gone towards summer Paralympic sports. About three quarters of UK Sport's funds come from the lottery.

Investment has grown, from £60m before Sydney in 2000 to the £274m for Rio and Great Britain have climbed the medal table, from 36th in Atlanta, to 10th in Sydney and Athens, fourth in Beijing, third in London and of course second now. An economist might argue that the success is built on regressive transfers (from working-class lottery players to middle-class athletes) but nonetheless the system has worked.

UK Sport has been ruthless in allocating most funding to those sports which produce most medal-winning athletes. That strategy has largely underpinned the country's success at the elite level in recent years. For example, gymnastics was rewarded for beating its medal target at London 2012 with a 36% increase in funding. The results at Rio 2016 speak volumes about the correlation between funding and medals: Team GB won seven medals in Rio, up from four in London, led by Max Whitlock’s two gold medals.

Conversely, sports which do not produce medals have their funding cut. Sports such as wrestling, table tennis, water polo, synchronised swimming and basketball have seen their funding slashed or even eliminated. Unsurprisingly, British athletes in these disciplines were not been among the medals in Rio.

At the end of 2015, the government said it was increasing the amount of funding it grants by 27% for the Tokyo 2020 Olympic cycle.

The funding impact on medal count is clear, not only with the Athletes themselves but on the sizes of the team supporting the individuals themselves across the sports. Rowing for example took 50 support staff to Rio, ranging from physiotherapists to nutritionists, sports psychologists and coaches. A group of support staff per boat, resources unmatched by any other country.

Cycling enthusiasts are likely to have heard of Sir Dave Brailsford’s “marginal gains” approach to performance, how an aggregation of small tweaks can have a big impact on sporting success. At this year’s games we’ve seen this at play in the new suits that the riders wore, the angles that bike seats were set at, and the preference for liquid handlebar chalk over gloves. Compared to Beijing and Rio this approach has spread into other sports who are paying much closer attention to every element of their athlete’s training programmes. For example, the performance director for Team GB swimming introduced a strict regime that has included a number of changes such as late night swims to adjust to time differences, special mattresses and blackout blinds to improve sleep quality and strict meal plans designed to enhance performance.

The combination of funding, support and science has produced the highest medal haul since 1908. Is this a high water mark for Team GB or an indication of the “new” normal?

There are challenges, especially at grassroots level where local authority cuts are closing facilities. Another challenge is whether elite level funding will continue with the uncertainty over the economy in preparation for and after Brexit.

The former Chancellor George Osborne pledged a 29% increase in exchequer funding for elite sport in what turned out to be his final Autumn Statement last November. That spending commitment is yet to be confirmed by new Chancellor Philip Hammond, while other commitments on maintaining funding levels for EU backed subsidies and investments have been. Mr Osborne's commitment remains in place but Mr Hammond is expected to 'reset' economic policy in his first autumn statement later this year. Privately, UK Sport, the body that chooses where to spend the roughly £450m per four-year cycle that is available for elite sport, are fearful of the consequences of a general economic downturn or even recession even before the next games.

The overall impression is that, as long as national lottery investment continues at roughly the same levels, GB should be able to perform at least as well if not better in Tokyo. Forecasts suggest that if they can maintain dominance in track cycling and push on to five or six swimming golds then a target of 30+ golds and 75 medals should be achievable, but that is funding dependent.

The ideal British legacy from Rio will not just mean medals in Tokyo but also a reverse in the (ongoing) decline in sports participation at home. To do that, as one commentator put it "if a horse leads itself to water, a government can ensure there is at least water to be drunk". Selling off school playing fields and fewer community facilities flies in the face of that somewhat and provides challenges for the Tokyo cycle and beyond.

 

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Brodders Football Analysis

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The Road to Riches: Weekend of 20th-21st August

Coming Up this weekend

- Football. The new season continues including the first Friday night Premier League match Manchester United v Southampton and Leicester v Arsenal on Saturday evening

- The Rio Olympics the Final weekend

- Racing, flat meetings at York, Salisbury, Sandown and Wolverhampton. Bangor-on-dee over the jumps.

- Golf, on the USPGA Tour the Wyndham Championship, on the European Tour the Czech Masters

- Tennis, ATP Western and Southern Open in Cincinnati

- Cricket T20 finals day at Edgbaston. Durham v Yorkshire and Notts v Northants in the semi-finals

- Rugby Union, the start of the SANZAR Rugby Championship with Australia v New Zealand in Sydney and South Africa v Argentina in Nelspruit

US Open Tennis August 29th to September 11th by Nigel Seeley

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US Open Tennis (Aug 29th - Sep 11th 2016)

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Free tip by Neil Channing: The Ebor Handicap (York 4.00pm)

You'll know the drill by now. It's a big-field 16+ runner handicap and so we get good value on the place part of any each-way bets we do if we get 1/4 1234. If we find a bookmaker offering 12345 at 1/4 odds then the deck is really stacked in our favour and we can't do much wrong having a bet at around the 12/1 mark.

The Ebor is a tough race to solve as there are 20-runners many of whom have been running over a shorter trip who may or may not stay, some of who have been running over further and now drop back, some of which have been around for years and others who are young and still improving.

The rain today though and the rain that is expected to fall before race time makes it a little easier to focus on horses that handle cut, that are in form and who ought to stay the trip.

There really are a whole bunch that could win but I wouldn't really want to back the favourite Antiquarium as I think he wants faster ground and despite a winner today I'm not sure the stable has it's runners going too well.

I'll cross off his other one Oceanographer on that same stable form angle.

Battersea is another who comes from a stable that aren't having too many runners despite the Postponed run and I'll swerve him.

I'll also swerve the Tony Martin pair of Quick Jack, who looks pretty exposed and Heartbreak City who looks a lot more interesting but who seems to be priced pretty defensively.

Seamour was obviously unlucky to get pipped in the Northumberland Plate but the market was watching that race.

Oriental Fox is pretty old now and he and Elidor don't have much improvement to come.

Vent de Force has some great form if you go back a little way and this is clearly the plan but you take a bit on trust.

Tawdeea needs to find a bit on form and to prove he stays so I couldn't have him.

Kinema is definitely interesting in that he has won on the trip, he comes from a good stable, he has gone Ok with cut in the ground and he is down in class after a poor run in the Goodwood Cup where he simply didn't stay. I'm not sure he's a big enough price though.

There are basically four I like and I think I'll narrowly pass on three of them and bet the other one but I wouldn't put you off betting a second, third or even or four if you like them.

Shrewd is from a trainer who is underrated so the price is probably bigger than the true chance. He's improved a fair bit this year, he definitely says the trip and he has good form on soft ground. I think 141 is pretty fair and I was close to betting a few here. It may find this is a bit too hot a race I guess but we'll see.

Top Tug is one that I wouldn't have a doubt over the class. Alan King does really well with his flat horses and this one has good form at the track. He ought to be Ok if it rains a lot but he isn't certain to stay the trip and that slightly puts me off a little bit.

The big priced horse I can make a case for is Sir Chauvelin who has a lightweight, definitely stays well and will appreciate any juice in the ground. If I could get 33/1 1/4 12345 I would definitely be interested.

I've settled on just one bet though and that is the stablemate of Kinema from the Ralph Becket stable, a filly getting a lot of weight from these and with Frankie Dettori on board it's She is no Lady.

This one ran a great race to be 2nd over a longer trip on soft ground at Sandown last time. She has no form at the track but she is improving, carries no weight and comes from a good stable and I find it hard to not see her being in the frame.

I'm having 7 Points each-way She is No Lady at 10/1 1/4 12345 with Hills and Sky Bet (of course I would take 11/1 with Bet365 but I'll count it at 10/1 to give you all a chance to get on).

 

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A question of Trust.

The 2016 Olympic track and field competition began last Friday with a 10,000m world record-by Almaz Ayana of Ethiopia who won the gold medal in 29:17.45. It beat the previous world record by 14 seconds, held by Wang Junxia of China since 1993. It was only the second 10,000-metre race Ayana has ever contested. No one has ever come within 22 seconds of Wang's world record and Wang subsequently admitted that she was part of a state sponsored doping programme

Ayana ran a 14:30 second half, quicker than Olympic 5000m record & the first half would have won 3 of the 5 previous Olympic 5000m finals. It was not just about the winner though Ayana’s speed dragged the field along and saw the race produce 18 personal bests, 8 national records and athletes running sub-30 minutes didn’t get a medal.

One of the great tragedies of doping is the suspended belief of genuine human breakthroughs. As the leading investigative journalist David Walsh said about Ayana’s performance

“We can't accuse because there's no evidence and we can't believe because there's no trust.”

It’s possible to be both amazed at the performance and suspicious of it. Ethiopia and Kenya are among the nations put under watch in the past year by the World Anti-Doping Agency for inadequate drug testing policies, for example.

Ayana rejected the suspicions when asked at the post-race press conference, crediting her religious faith and her preparation for her success.

“Number one, I did my training. Number two, I praise the Lord. The Lord is giving me everything, every blessing,” she said, speaking in her native language, Amharic, through an interpreter. “My doping is my training. My doping is Jesus. Otherwise, nothing. I’m crystal clear.”

Later in the week, after South African Wayde Van Niekerk beat his 17 year old world record in the 400m final (he shaved more time off the world record than Johnson did when he set the record in 1999), Michael Johnson said the following:

“It’s a fantastic time for the sport from a performance standpoint but the sport has a huge credibility problem.

I was talking to someone about world records and there is doubt. If the only way to stop people suspecting you is to run slower then you have a problem.

The IAAF has to handle this and restore credibility otherwise people like Van Niekerk will have the injustice of people questioning them. That’s the fault of the federation not doing enough to ensure the sport is clean”

With the International Olympic Committee having ultimately allowed 278 Russian athletes to compete in Rio despite compelling evidence of state-sponsored doping across many sports over four years, the resulting backlash and paranoia is inevitable. The IOC was widely criticised for leaving the decision on whether Russian athletes should compete up to the individual sporting federations, despite a report by Prof Richard McLaren of the World Anti-Doping Agency (Wada) that he said proved beyond reasonable doubt that systemic state-sponsored doping had taken place across many sports.

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Brodders Football Analysis

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- The Euros 2016 for subscribers. Results: +£4,098.30 (betting £10 a point, average bet about £150) +ROI 31.43%

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Betting Emporium results

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£10 per point on every recommended bet since launch in Feb 2013 would be winning £24,581 (as at 11^th August 2016)

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A £4000 bank (see FAQ re bank-roll requirements) betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £28, 581 a 614% increase