Weekly Articles "Road to Riches" by Rich 'Tighty' Prew
The Road to Riches: Weekend of 4th-5th June
Coming Up this weekend
- Football, The final batch of International friendlies ahead of the start of Euro 2016 next weekend and the start of the 2016 Copa America
- Racing, The Derby at Epsom (see Neil Channing's free tip below) this weekend the highlight of a programme with flat meetings at Doncaster Lingfield and Musselburgh, Worcester and Hexham over the jumps and Newcastle on the all-weather
- Tennis, the final weekend of the French Open at Roland Garros in Paris.
- Golf, On the USPGA Tour the Memorial tournament at Muirfield Village and on the PGA European Tour the Nordea Masters in Sweden
- Cricket, T20 Blast group matches continue and the start of the domestic 50 over competition the Royal London One Day Cup
UEFA Euro 2016 (10th June -10th July 2016)
We have incorporated the Euro 2016 coverage into the Brodders section. The outright preview including details of all the ante-post bets we are having has been published today. Match coverage from Brodders to follow from the 10th June onwards.
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Euros 2016 (full package) (Includes all Brodders write ups, plus outrights/ antepost) |
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| More EURO 2016 details and a FREE tip.... | FREE tip |
Royal Ascot Full Package 14th-18th June
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Royal Ascot (Full Package) 14th - 18th June 2016 |
Includes all of Neil's race analysis and write ups as well as details of all the bets we are having at this year's Royal Ascot.
Free Tip from Neil Channing The Derby (Saturday Epsom 4.30pm)
People are generally saying that this is a bad Derby. While it's true to say that the trials have been pretty inconclusive I certainly don't subscribe to that view. The whole point of the Derby is to establish the pecking order among the three-year old colts and we'll know tomorrow at about 4.35pm if this is a good one or not.
From a betting point of view I was prepared to concede this might be a bad one as 5/1 the field races in which I don't get paid four places, despite the fact I have to wade through the form of 16-runners just don't appeal that much. This one is just as competitive as a handicap and we deserve to get paid as if it is.
Luckily for us there are two firms that have gone a bit mad here in Sky Bet and Betfred who are paying 1/5th 12345 and 1/4 1234 respectively. Either represents a very good concession and I reckon we just need to find something that will definitely stay and that acts on the ground and we'll be Ok.
US Army Ranger wouldn't be one I'd be leaping to back here as it is, perhaps, a little bit "win or come nowhere". It could just be the next "Champion the Wonder Horse" but I guess it is possible he could be just another talking horse. It doesn't feel like he'll lose by not being quite good enough and he could win by a mile. I like him but I shan't bet him tomorrow.
Wings of Desire won the best trial really impressively and he ought to stay. I think at 5/1 I like him a lot if I get 1/4 1234 or 1/5th 12345. He had to be supplemented to run.
Cloth of Stars could also be really decent and with a line of form that doesn't tie in with these it's hard to know how good he'll be. He is trained by a genius and he says the horse will definitely stay. 7/1 with the extra places looks very fair.
I'm not sure that Ulysses will like the soft ground and I think he's price is ridiculous given his form. The first one I put a line through. Deauville was beaten fair and square in the Dante and I just don't fancy him at this reasonably short price.
Harzand is definitely going to stay here and will like the ground but I reckon he won't be fast enough when it comes down to it especially if the ground dries out at all. Massaat has the classic form from the Guineas but he must be a massively doubtful stayer. Moonlight Magic is another who may struggle to get home especially if the ground is at all soft.
Lots of things were said about the ride of Port Douglas who was 2nd to his stablemate US Army Ranger in the Chester Vase. He is one that will definitely stay and he could be a little value at 14/1 or higher with the extra places. Idaho is another Aiden O'Brien horse which I could take at the prices. He'll definitely stay, I think he was a little unlucky last time and he'll like any juice in the ground.
Red Verdon is doing brilliantly this year but a massive class rise is not what I'm looking for when I bet each-way, I want a solid profile. Humphrey Bogart isn't really supposed to stay on breeding and he probably won't be anywhere near good enough and he holds Across the Stars although that one could improve and win their little match. Biodynamic is held on form, won't be good enough and will not stay.
The two remaining runners are interesting at big prices and I definitely have them on my shortlist with these extra places making them appeal more. Algometer definitely will stay, the horse has plenty of improvement to come, the stable are doing OK and he'll like the ground. Shogun will really improve a lot for the longer trip and I wouldn't rule him out totally at a big price.
If you can't get the four or five places here I would really stress that there is no value in having an each-way bet and I would strongly advise to go win only. If you have the option of getting the extra places I wouldn't put you off betting five horses or picking two or three of my five that you like. I'm going to just take three at bigger prices though and reluctantly I'll leave alone Wings of Desire and Cloth of Stars who would be my extra two if I had more. Instead I'll take the ones where just a place would be pretty decent and a win would be a nice bonus.
I'm having 5 Points each-way Port Douglas at 16/1 1/5th 12345 with SkyBet or 14/1 1/4 1234 with Betfred.
I'm having 6 Points each-way Idaho at 16/1 1/5th 12345 with SkyBet or 1/4 1234 with Betfred.
I'm having 6 Points each-way Algometer at 25/1 1/5th 12345 with SkyBet or 1/4 1234 with Betfred.
Sports Betting versus Stock Trading
Be it sports betting any sort of gambling, the traditional gambler will be a long term loser because they gamble without an edge and proper money management. A non traditional gambler (an investor) on the other hand is someone who only gambles (invests) with an edge and proper money management for long term success.
Sports betting attracts many traditional gamblers because of its simple nature and as a result long term losers out-number winners. Stockmarkets on the other hand rarely attract any traditional gamblers because of complex structures and many consider sports betting as gambling (high risk investment) and stock trading as investing (low risk gamble).
If though you look at sports betting and stock trading in terms of investors perspective only, sports betting is a much safer play because it is easy to manage and cheaper (in vig or commission terms). Both are a form of gambling and the kicker with both is same--in order to be successful you need to be skillful, especially with money management and finding the edge.
Sports betting is much easier to manage because most of the variables and information are publicly available and all you have to do is analyse everything to find the edge. Stock market on the other hand is more complex--monitoring the performance of companies is much harder than monitoring sports teams. There are too many unknown variables in the stock market that could affect the performance of your stocks. Often, these variables are not available to the public immediately and because of this it is really difficult to gain an edge. Even many professional fund managers who stock pick, and charge handsomely to do so, underperform the market as a whole. I know, i used to be one!
Assuming you have the edge in sports betting and stock market, you are more likely to get much better return on your investment in sports betting than stock market. Professional sports investors do not bet any more than 2-3% of their bankroll in any bets. If you make all your bets at 10/11 odds, you need to hit 53% or better of your bets to make profit. On occasions playing higher odds +ev bets can allow us to make profits even when we hit less than 50%. For the stock-market investor in addition to bigger capital required, your investment is also exposed to losses outside your control in the case of general market moves. Sports betting is an investment that will not be affected during tough economic times.
Finally, fees involved in stock trading are hard to overcome unless your capital is very large. There are also many levels of fees. You may hear that the fee is only X amount per trade but this means 2X the fees because you have to execute the trade twice for each stock (once when you buy and once when you sell) There is also the bid and ask fee. Bid price is the price announced by the buyer at which he is willing to purchase a stock. Ask price is the price announced by the seller at which he is willing to sell a stock. The difference between ask and bid prices is referred to as the spread. The spread goes to the pockets of the broker or specialist who was responsible for the stock transaction for the paying of other fees. There also numerous other account administration fees and commissions that you may encounter. When it comes to sports betting you don't have to worry about any of these fees.
Sports betting can be a much safer play than stock market if you approach it with an investors perspective. However, sports investing and stock investing are viewed differently by government regulators. Governments around the globe encourage stock investing a nice respectable occupation in the eyes of most. Much of the sports betting industry is offshore and it is much easier to tax stock investors than sports investors, thus the regulatory framework overlaying the two industries is very different.
Brodders Football Analysis ** Includes Euro 2016 Outright Preview and Game Coverage **
Sign up to Brodders match analysis and recommended bets here for £50 a month. You are free to cancel at any time.
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Euro & other Football by Brodders (monthly) |
- Betting £10 a point would be showing a profit of + £10,278
- Long Term Profit - All Brodders bets since January 2014 are currently showing a ROI of +3.72% (over 2050 bets) (at 15th May 2016)
Bookmaker reviews and advice
Getting the best price available is very important for all those who take their betting seriously.
Please open an account with all those bookmakers on the page on this link that you do not already have an account with using the links provided.
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
£10 per point on every recommended bet since launch in Feb 2013 would be winning £21,602 (as at 15th May 2016)
All bets have an ROI +3.62% and Horse Racing has an ROI +5.25%
A £4000 bank (see FAQ re bank-roll requirements) betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £25,602 a 540% increase
Getting the best price available is very important for all those who take their betting seriously.
Please open an account with all those bookmakers on the page on this link that you do not already have an account with using the links provided.
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
£10 per point on every recommended bet since launch in Feb 2013 would be winning £21,602 (as at 15th May 2016)
All bets have an ROI +3.62% and Horse Racing has an ROI +5.25%
A £4000 bank (see FAQ re bank-roll requirements) betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £25,602 a 540% increase
The Road To Riches Weekend of 28th-29th May
Coming Up this weekend
- Football, the Champions League final between Real Madrid and Atletico Madrid at the San Siro in Milan on Saturday. Pre-Euro 2016 warm ups continue with England v Australia in Sunderland on Friday night.
- Racing, on the flat at Beverley, Chester, Salisbury, Catterick and Haydock. National Hunt meetings at Cartmel and Ffos Las.
- Tennis, the French Open continues at Roland Garros in Paris.
- Formula One, the Monaco Grand Prix.
- Golf, USPGA Colonial National Invitation at Colonial CC and on the European Tour the BMW PGA at Wentworth.
- Cricket. the second test England v Sri Lanka at Durham continues, and the final of IPL9 in Bangalore on Sunday.
- Rugby Union, the Aviva Premiership final Saracens v Exeter Chiefs on Saturday at Twickenham.
French Tennis Open (Roland Garros) 22nd May - 5th June
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French Tennis Open (Roland Garros) (22nd May - 5th June 2016) |
The package by Nigel Seeley includes the outrights, all the analysis and details of all the bets that we are having on the French Open Tennis. His 2015 French Open had a spectacular +43% ROI and he is a long term winner. If you had bet £10 a point on all of Nigel's tennis bets you would be winning £1412.
Royal Ascot Full Package 14th-18th June
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Royal Ascot (Full Package) 14th - 18th June 2016 |
Includes all of Neil's race analysis and write ups as well as details of all the bets we are having at this year's Royal Ascot.
Free Tip The Monaco Grand Prix
Sunday sees the latest Grand Prix of the 2016 season in Monte Carlo one of the iconic races in the calendar around the tight streets of the Principality. Last time out in Spain Max Verstappen created his own piece of history by winning at 18 years old in his first race for Red Bull (at 100-1, no less) and in doing so broke a run of seven successive Nico Rosberg victories for Mercedes across the end of last season and the beginning of this. Of course the Mercedes drivers tangling in Barcelona and exiting the race played a large part in this but nonetheless with the battles between both Ferraris and both Red Bulls all race very close, signs are that the chasing pack behind the pre-eminent team in the sport currently is bunching up.
A year ago in this column I put up the Red Bulls each-way against short-priced Mercedes favourites and they finished 4th and 5th for a "close but no cigar" pair of recommendations at 20-1 and 25-1 despite their disadvantages relatvie to Mercedes last year. I planned to do so again this year because (alongside Singapore) the combination of the Monaco circuit and the Red Bull chassis gives potential more than any other tracks for Mercedes to be challenged. Mercedes' power advantage is minimised on the street circuit and the Red Bull is consistently quick across each track in slow corners and complexes where its pre-eminent chassis allows it to corner efficiently.
Normally when looking at F1 outright prices in recent years we've faced Hamilton and Rosberg going off sub 2/1 the pair with each way paying two spots but prices for this weekend are
Hamilton 13/8
Rosberg 5/2
Ricciardo 5/2
Verstappen 10/1
Vettel 18/1
Raikkonen 66/1
Bar 100/1
with William Hill and Bet 365 paying one fifth three places
At first glance, for those solely interested in the Mercedes battle Rosberg's price looks more interesting than Hamilton's but I am interested in Red Bull here and in this respect its informative to see both Red Bulls shorter than both Ferrari's in the betting, reflecting the potential of the car round the streets. After Barcelona the temptation is to expect Verstappen to go well again, which is likely for a wonderful natural talent that is obviously the next big thing in the sport.
However Renault is bringing a couple of new engines to Monaco, one race ahead of schedule, which it was suggested will lower lap times by 0.5s a lap. One of the engines is going to the works Renault team (where the overall package is far weaker), one to the Red Bull and it is has been added to Ricciardo's car. Red Bull is well placed in 2016 to incrementally improve the car through the season through the F1 token system and the Monaco free practices showed that a newer power unit alongside the pre-eminent Red Bull chassis on a street circuit could have a marked effect as Ricciardo topped the second session 0.6 seconds clear of Hamilton and looked hugely impressive doing so. Even allowing for likely differences in fuel levels, that's a striking performance.
Of course overtaking is nigh-on impossible so grid position in qualifying is especially important at a circuit such as this and a performance like this would have Ricciardo certainly on the front two rows, perhaps even amongst the Mercedes drivers. It is qualifying pace that is as important as race pace because, with the exception of the leading car, no car can show a true race pace in the queue that Monaco invariably produces. That engine upgrade allied to the chassis strength in slow corners makes the win a realistic shot for Red Bull here.
6 points Daniel Ricciardo Monaco Grand Prix 5/2 generally
Upping the Ante
Ante post markets in team sports with bets on whether a team is going to win a league or event that is usually going to be held well in the future are something that bookmakers love to post and take action on. There’s a pretty simple reason for that as bookmakers do well on these markets for obvious reasons as a lot can happen in the months between placing a bet and the end of an event or season and assessing value is difficult.
Of course there is always the exception to the rule, now forever to be known as the Leicester at 5,000/1 event, but even those events have their upsides in PR, future customer behaviour (trying to find next season’s equivalent) and the money collected on the shorter priced losers. Most of the time though firms collect a large amount of money, use it as they want for months until the outcome of the bet is determined, and then pay out far less than they brought in.
There are some circumstances, though, where ante-post betting can make sense.
When You Might Want To Bet Ante Post
When you consider a long shot is under-rated, with prospects better than those discounted by the price. Whilst of course teams at big odds are usually big odds for a reason, there are exceptions and ante-post can be a way to lock in value. This is especially pertinent away from the highest profile markets where with imperfect information it is possible to find an angle that has been under-appreciated.
To get ahead of a potential big move. If you believe, for example, that there is a transformational move that would transform the price/prospects of side. An early Premier League example for 2016-17 has been Manchester United where the imminent arrival of Mourinho and the strong expectation that he would be joined by Ibrahimovic has seen their outright price drop from 7/1 to 9/2. On a far less likely level, perhaps the return of Ronaldo at some point would cause a bigger move than this.Usually these moves are event driven. A big signing or new manager, or a change of ownership transforming a side’s finances and the last of these can be particularly effective away from the top divisions where new information might not get discounted immediately in prices. I’ve seen it in the football league and English rugby union sides for example
To kick-start your thinking for the season. Some like to study ante-post markets as a way to start their preparations for the upcoming season. The odds give them a basic indication of what odds-makers think of the coming season, and by doing their own research they can find the situations where they agree with them or differ significantly. The areas where they differ need to be researched more, but they could represent value.
Things To Remember When Betting Ante-post
The risks are many and almost impossible to calculate with confidence. Assessing value is tough. Any amount of uncertainty increases the risk on a bet, and therefore increases the amount of return you require to compensate for that risk. Because of the complexity of risk assessment it is easy to over-estimate your edge in these bets.
Money is tied up for a long time. When you make an ante-post bet you commit your money until the bet is resolved, often weeks or months. If that money were in regular use you could bet it several times over, and as long as you are a long term winner you would have an expectation to produce profit with those bets. Since the money is tied up, though, it is exposed to risk while not earning any return. That means that there is an opportunity cost involved in future bets. You need to consider not just the return on the bet you are making, but also the lost potential return from the bets you could make if you weren’t invested in the futures bet. This opportunity cost means that you need to have an even higher payoff on your futures bet to make it worthwhile.
The ante-post market isn’t as fluid as it is for specific games and other popular short term events, so it is easy to find prices at different books that differ dramatically. If you have convinced yourself that you want to make a long term bet then you might as well maintain the discipline that you’ve have in short term betting and try to get the best price possible.
Brodders Football Analysis
Sign up to Brodders match analysis and recommended bets here for £50 a month. You are free to cancel at any time.
|
Euro & other Football by Brodders (monthly) |
- Betting £10 a point would be showing a profit of + £10,278
- Long Term Profit - All Brodders bets since January 2014 are currently showing a ROI of +3.72% (over 2050 bets) (at 15th May 2016)
Bookmaker reviews and advice
Getting the best price available is very important for all those who take their betting seriously.
Please open an account with all those bookmakers on the page on this link that you do not already have an account with using the links provided.
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
£10 per point on every recommended bet since launch in Feb 2013 would be winning £21,602 (as at 15th May 2016)
All bets have an ROI +3.62% and Horse Racing has an ROI +5.25%
A £4000 bank (see FAQ re bank-roll requirements) betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £25,602 a 540% increase
The Road to Riches: Weekend of 21st-22nd May
Coming Up this weekend
- Football, the FA Cup final between Manchester United and Crystal Palace at Wembley and pre-Euro 2016 warm ups begin with England v Turkey in Manchester on Sunday
- Racing, the Irish 1000/2000 Guineas at the Curragh. In the UK flat meetings at Haydock, Newmarket, Chepstow , York and Goodwood and Stratford-on-avon over the jumps
- Tennis, the last tournaments before the French Open, ATP Geneva and ATP Cote D'Azur in Nice
- Golf, USPGA AT+T Byron Nelson at TPC Las Colinas and on the European Tour the Irish Open at the K Club
- Cricket. the First test England v Sri Lanka at Headingley continues, and the final weekend of IPL9 Group matches
- Rugby Union, the Aviva Premiership semi-finals Saracens v Leicester and Exeter Chiefs v Wasps
French Tennis Open (Roland Garros) 22nd May - 5th June
The outright previews will be published tomorrow following today's draw
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French Tennis Open (Roland Garros) (22nd May - 5th June 2016) |
The package by Nigel Seeley includes the outrights, all the analysis and details of all the bets that we are having on the French Open Tennis. His 2015 French Open had a spectacular +43% ROI and he is a long term winner. If you had bet £10 a point on all of Nigel's tennis bets you would be winning £1412.
Royal Ascot Full Package 14th-18th June
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Royal Ascot (Full Package) 14th - 18th June 2016 |
Includes all of Neil's race analysis and write ups as well as details of all the bets we are having at this year's Royal Ascot.
Free Tip
The 2016 Nat West T20 Blast: Ante Post
The English domestic T20 competition starts once again this Friday, with group games running through to the end of July and finals day at Edgbaston on 20th August. Compared to the glitz and glamour assoicated with the T20 game worldwide, notably in the IPL and Australia's Big Bash, the T20 Blast is often more prosaic fayre with typical problems in weather and scheduling meaning it sometimes doesn't catch the imagination though these days, with the likes of Brendon McCullum, Chris Gayle, Aaron Finch and emerging talents like Mustafizur Rahman in the ranks of overseas players after the IPL finishes there is some star quality associated with the competition.
This column has had some success in 2014 and 2015 in the T20 Blast and I am going to once again try to find some value for us to follow through the summer. Firstly a quick reminder of the format
Teams are initially split into 2 divisions (North and South), each containing 9 teams, for the group stage of the competition. During the group stage (from May to July) each club plays 6 of the other teams in the same division twice, once at their home stadium and once at that of their opponents. They play the other two teams only once, for a total of 14 games each. Teams are ranked by total points, then net run rate. At the end of the group stage, the top four teams from each group enter the knockout stage.
So this is an 18 runner field. Looking at the head of the betting, we see some familiar names none of whom i would be surprised to see at Finals day
Notts 7-1
Surrey 7-1
Yorkshire 8-1
Somerset 10-1
Hampshire 10-1
Birmingham 12-1
Middlesex 14-1
Essex 14-1
Lancs 14-1
Sussex 20-1
However this isn't an 18 runner field that many of the odds compilers will have a great deal of knowledge of the less fashionable teams, playing away from the first division of the four day game and the Test grounds. It is here that i am interested and I am particularly interested in the North group (teams shown in italics above) which only has 4 teams in the top ten in the betting and generally has less depth than the South division. In principle, being in the north group is an easier qualification route to the knockout stages and from there one win and finals day awaits.
We also have to consider that it is difficult for many counties, all operating within a salary cap limiting squad sizes, to fight on more than one front through the domestic season. We've seen this in the last couple of years with the best four day side in the country, Yorkshire. There is also a pecularity in division two of the county championship this year with only one team going up with a rebalancing of the competition next year. Fewer sides in division two are going to be prioritising the 4 day game when already Essex are well clear at the top of the table and more than a win clear of six of the nine sides.
Worcestershire have made the quarter-finals in three of the past four years, and were knocked out last year by Hampshire in a rain affected match. They are an extremely competitive side in the format. One of the smaller counties, away from the big city teams, they are deeply unfashionable and thus prime territory for value betting. They are priced up as 17th of the 18 sides in this competition at 33-1. This is simply wrong because the talent in the side gives them much better prospects than that price implies. You might not have heard of Joe Clarke and Ross Whiteley for example but you would have done if they played for bigger teams. Whiteley in particular is one of the brighest T20 talents in the English game, a big hitting batsman who is a real match-winner.
For the overseas player Worcestershire have the New Zealand spinner Mitchell Santner, who went so well in the World T20 in March finishing joint top wicket taker. Now of course Worcester in May isn't the same as a cracked pitch in Nagpur but it is still a shrewd signing.
5 points Each way Worcestershire to win the Nat West T20 Blast 28/1 Sportingbet (1/2 1,2) 25/1 generally
(33-1 win only in a couple of smaller places)
For the final time...
I had hestitated to add to the reams of columns that have sought to analyse the Premier League victory of the side i support, Leicester City, this season. After all, what else is there to be said, i thought to myself? However I cannot resist.
Writing a couple of days after the final games of the season the bare numbers speak to a convincing league win:
In the 23 years of the Premier League only 3 teams have lost fewer games than Leicester did in 2015-16 (Arsenal's invincibles 0 in 03-04, Chelsea 1 in 04-05 and Liverpool 2 in 08-09). Only four previous champions have won the title by a greater margin of points than Leicester's ten point margin this season.
Yet no one is going to claim this was a vintage Premier League season in terms of quality, notwithstanding the excitement and rarity of the result for part of the East Midlands and many neutrals and the (temporary, possibly) breaking of the link between finance off the pitch and success on it.
Many of the columns have sought to back-fit the title win and attribute a good portion of the season to luck, randomness and variance. Undoubtedly there are factors that assist that type of analysis:
- An unusual simultaneous down year for the big sides, from Chelsea's calamitous first half of the season, United's problems under Van Gaal, City's inconsistencies under Pellegrini and Arsenal once more flattering to deceive
- An unusual absence of injuries for Leicester, leading to very limited need for rotation and only 30 changes to the starting XI across the 38 games (last year, Chelsea 89)
- Unexpectedly low shot on target conversion from Leicester's opponent's throughout the season, which from an analytical community viewpoint always gave the underdog's charge to the title an air of unsustainability. I myself was in this camp somewhat and wrote several times about a forthcoming reversion to the mean that never happened.
Over and above these factors though, having seen a majority of matches in person, the skill shown in various areas has gone a long way to causing the surprise result
- Tactically, Ranieri was far shrewder than many realised. The result was that a side that had 42.7% of possession across the season won the title. The trigger here was the 5-2 home defeat to Arsenal, following which game Ranieri changed both full backs. One was loaned out to a championship side and the other didn't play the position the rest of the season. In came Simpson and Fuchs who defended first and defended narrow and added with the combination of Kante and Drinkwater protecting the central areas made the side hugely difficult to break down.
- In terms of recruitment the palpable hits of attracting three of the performers of the season Mahrez, Kante and Vardy for a combined £7m, playing at Champions league type levels all season, helped level the playing field dramatically (as did similar recruitment elsewhere eg Payet/West Ham)
- Finally its impossible to quantify the effect but the back room resources put into sports science, nutrition, psychology (the team employs a sports psychologist) and analytics (each player is presented on a Monday with a file onto an ipad with each of their contributions on and off the ball in the last match, contributions of their next opponent's over the last three matches etc) appeared to convey an element of competitive advantage.
In addition with only one exception, Klopp at Anfield just after Christmas (Liverpool double marked Mahrez and defended deep) opposing coaches were extremely slow to react to what they were encountering. It was only from March onwards that sides appeared to specifically set up to limit the effect of Leicester in transition/on the counter. At which point Leicester began winning games narrowly (in part because the defensive frailties of the early season had been addressed) and with different types of goals (often set-pieces)
Next year of course things will be different. Extra games for starters, extra tactical attention from the opposition is likely too and the squad may not remain together. Of course the arrival of Guardiola, Conte and possibly the return of Mourinho into the league together with the advent of the new TV deal and the huge sums likely to be bandied around by these sides in the transfer market could well see a re-assertion of dominance by the "big four" or "big six" as we'll have to add Spurs and Liverpool into the mix.
I prefer the angle of one judge I respect who referred to future Premier League seasons as in a betting context representing a "particularly tricky each way handicap to solve" because every side in the league is going to have TV deal based revenues of £120m+ from next year, all are going to be in the top thirty richest clubs in Europe and new talent into the league is going to be dispersed across the vast majority of teams compared to the biggest teams of a few years ago hoovering up all the top talent.
Whilst that doesn't necessarily mean we should all be tucking away 1000-1 betting slips on Sunderland for 2016-17, it probably does point to Premier League betting, both weekly and ante-post, being a higher variance activity than it was in the years of big team dominance from 2003-15.
Brodders Football Analysis
Sign up to Brodders match analysis and recommended bets here for £50 a month. You are free to cancel at any time.
|
Euro & other Football by Brodders (monthly) |
- Betting £10 a point would be showing a profit of + £10,278
- Long Term Profit - All Brodders bets since January 2014 are currently showing a ROI of +3.72% (over 2050 bets) (at 15th May 2016)
Bookmaker reviews and advice
Getting the best price available is very important for all those who take their betting seriously.
Please open an account with all those bookmakers on the page on this link that you do not already have an account with using the links provided.
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
£10 per point on every recommended bet since launch in Feb 2013 would be winning £21,602 (as at 15th May 2016)
All bets have an ROI +3.62% and Horse Racing has an ROI +5.25%
A £4000 bank (see FAQ re bank-roll requirements) betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £25,602 a 540% increase
The Road to Riches: Weekend of 14th-15th May
Coming Up this weekend
- Football, the final weekend of the Premier League season including Chelsea v Leicester Cty and the first leg of the football league play off semi finals. The latest Premier League Statistical Analysis write up has been published here
- Racing, Flat meetings at Doncaster, Newbury, Thirsk and Newmarket and Bangor-on-dee and Uttoxeter over the jumps.
- Formula One, the Spanish Grand Prix in Barcelona
- Rugby Union, the European Champions Cup Final between Saracens and Racing 92 in Lyon
- Tennis, the run up to the French Open continues with ATP BNL D'Italia in Rome, ATP Geneva Open and ATP Open De Nice in the South of France
- Golf, USPGA The Players Championship at TPC Sawgrass and on the European Tour the Mauritius Open.
- Cricket. IPL 9 group stage games continue
French Tennis Open (Roland Garros) 22nd May - 5th June
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French Tennis Open (Roland Garros) (22nd May - 5th June 2016) |
The package by Nigel Seeley includes the outrights, all the analysis and details of all the bets that we are having on the French Open Tennis. If you had bet £10 a point on all of Nigel's tennis bets you would be winning £1412.
Royal Ascot Full Package 14th-18th June
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Royal Ascot (Full Package) 14th - 18th June 2016 |
Includes all of Neil's race analysis and write ups as well as details of all the bets we are having at this year's Royal Ascot.
Free Tip
European Champions Cup Final Sat 14th May 3.45pm SkySports2
Saracens v Racing 92
Saturday sees the culmination of the European rugby season with the ERCC final in Lyon.
Saracens, the strongest side in England for several years have won all eight games in this year’s European Champions cup, beating Northampton and Wasps in the knockout stages on the way to this final.Saracens have been irresistible all year, reaching 80 Aviva Premiership points in a season disrupted by the World Cup. Bar one disjointed half in the quarter-final, European performances have possibly been even more impressive.
Racing lie fourth in the French top 14 and beat holders Toulon in the quarter-final then Leicester at Nottingham in the semi. They have one of the largest playing budgets in Europe and a squad that includes a dozen players brought in from overseas with particular quality from the Suthern Hemisphere.
Saracens lost to Toulon in the European final in 2014 and to Clermont in the semi final last year. No English side has won the trophy since 2006-07 with four Irish and four French winners since and despite the advantages of their playing and financial resources the Premiership has really struggled to perform in European competition particularly compared to the all-star French sides, with predictable game plans and a focus on conservatism rife in the English top division.
That has really changed this season, in some respects mirroring the different approach of the national team since the World cup due to much more ambitious game plans, and advantages in squad sizes and fitness backing up the more expansive strategies. This resulted in five of the eight quarter finalists being English teams, the other three French
Saracens have all bases covered. They can win in the backs or forwards. Up front the superb second row partnership of Itoje and Kruis anchors the pack and Billy Vunipola gives them the go forward.. If the conditions and game flow dictate a territory based game there are few better than Owen Farrell, the top scorer in this year's competition with 106 points. When looking to be expansive the likes of Chris Ashton, a prolific try scorer in European rugby with 11 clean breaks and 4 tries in this year's competition, and Alex Goode provide the cutting edge
Racing92 are formidable opponents though. Firstly this game is in France and French teams tend to play better at home than they do overseas. They have all of the resources you would expect from a leading Top14 side. Notably of course amongst these is Dan Carter, a World Cup winner who won four Super Rugby titles with Crusaders and joined Racing after the recent world cup. He has provided that extra organisation and game management to take Racing to that next step. This is no partially interested hired hand either. In the semi final against Leicester, the English team repeatedly charged down his channel only to be met with 16 tackles, the second highest count in the game. With fellow New Zealanders Chris Masoe (signed from Toulon and playing his third consecutive final), Joe Rococoko and Argentine wing and World Cup star Juan Imhoff lining up too, this is a team to be reckoned with.
Both sides have excellent defences, both sides are going to kick almost all if not all of their penalties and Saracens will I think look to avoid getting bogged down in a direct confrontation and will look to move Racing92 around. As a team with the experience of getting close, but now more rounded than they were, I think they’ll win if they execute well. They’ve more chance of doing this now than they had in 2014 when in experience terms they were far more callow.
Whilst prices just over Evens might not make this the most exciting bet in the world, they are priced as underdogs which I don't really agree with. I do expect this to be a one score game and it could well be extremely close for a long way. I can’t resist the 20-1 around on the draw either.
15 points Saracens to win the European Champions Cup Final 6/5 PaddyPower (2.18 on Betfair, 11/10 Skybet )
3 points the draw 20-1 Skybet , Betfred
Testing, Testing
After a winter in which England beat South Africa away in a Test series and reached the World T20 final in India their International summer begins next week with the first of three Test Matches against Sri Lanka, ahead of a four test series against Pakistan later in the summer and a five test series in India this winter
The schedule for the Sri Lanka tests is as follows
19-23 May First Test Headingley
27-31 May Second Test, Durham
9-13 June Third Test, Lords
In many respects England are a settled team and against Sri Lanka, opponents in rebuilding mode will be expected to win comfortably. Indeed they are 1/6 to win the series and 8/15 to win the first test. It is a series that weather permitting they should be winning 2-0 or 3-0 (both of which are priced at 2-1 in the correct score market, 6-1 bar these two results), in preparation for a fiercer examination against the Pakistani quicks later in the summer
This week England's squad for the Headingley test was announced. The spine of the team is as expected and makes England a strong side: Cook, Root and Bairstow (with Buttler at the IPL) in the top six, Stokes and Ali as bowling all-rounders and Broad and Anderson as opening bowlers. Anderson has been hinting at a timeframe for retirement but injury aside these seven players will be seen throughout this English summer.
Beyond the "core" players the selectors had trickier decisions in the remainder of the squad. Conservatively, they have decided to stick with Hales as Cook's opening partner and Compton at number 3. Hales was unconvincing in the role in South Africa scoring just 136 runs at an average of 17 and Compton has no form in this early summer, a top score of 44 in six innings. Replacing the unfortunately now retired James Taylor Hampshire's James Vince steps up from captaincy of the A side to take his place in the middle order
In the bowling ranks Finn is fit again and should make the starting XI ahead of Nottinghamshire's Jake Ball, a seamer very impressive so far this season with 19 wickets in the county championship. A bowling line up of Broad, Anderson, Finn, Stokes and Ali will expect to have a field day against the Sri Lankan top order.
I wouldn't be that confident that Hales, Compton and Vince in particular would make it through the summer in the Test side, whilst injury and rotation is always likely in the bowling ranks.
The selectors have many options in the batting department from recalling Bell or Ballance if they hit form. Sam Robson is also in great form. Perhaps more likely is that they will begin to blood some of the exciting young talent around the domestic game, names like Westley, Browne, Abell and Bell-Drummond are all knocking on the door for places in the top three and series against Sri Lanka and Pakistan are as good a chance as any to pick them and have them ready for higher profile series in 2017 and 2018.
In 2014 Sri Lanka toured England in the early summer slot and won the series. It was the last hurrah for a hugely talented team that since has had to cope with the retirement of all time greats Kumar Sangakkara, Mahela Jayawardene and Tillekeratne Dilshan.
This time round, the batting line up will rely on captain Angelo Mathews first and foremost, who averages over 50 in 56 tests and 61 as captain and who won a test with 160 at Leeds on the last tour. He will be supported by Dinesh Chandimal in the middle order and the opening pair of Kaushal Silva and Dimuth Karunaratne who have the experience of the 2014 tour under their belts.
The Bowling attack too is inexperienced. The touring squad only includes two spinners, and it’s difficult to see combinations of their six seamers out-bowling Broad, Anderson and co. Furthermore the most experienced bowler Dhammika Prasad, 5 for 50 in the Headingley test last time, broke down in the warm-up match with Essex this week
Main betting markets don’t offer us much for this series. I’ll be looking at sub-markets when they go up to find some value. My thoughts refer back to comments above.
Of the top order I am only confident that Cook, Root and Bairstow will play all three games in this series. I'd normally back Root in any series around the 3-1 mark such is his class and record but here I will be looking at whichever of Cook and Root is the higher price. Cook is in great form and should make hay here
In the bowling ranks this should be a match between Broad and Anderson, with Finn's injury record always an issue. Although english pitches have been (too) good so far this summer, its stretching it to think that Moeen Ali will get too many chances to be amongst the wickets before the seamers are and Stokes is a bowler who takes wickets in clusters rather than consistently during a series. Broad and Anderson should be around 11/4 joint favourites, I'll probably take whichever offers marginal value over the other.
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The Road to Riches Weekend of 7th-8th May
Coming Up this weekend
- Football, a full schedule in the Premier League including Leicester City v Everton and Tottenham v Southampton. The latest Premier League Statistical Analysis write up has been published here
- Racing, a mixed meeting at Haydock. On the flat Nottingham, Ascot, Lingfield and Thirsk. National hunt meetings at Hexham and Warwick
- Tennis, ATP and WTP Madrid Open
- Golf, USPGA Wells Fargo Campionship and on the European Tour Trophee Hassan II in Morocco
- Cricket. IPL 9 group stage games continue
French Tennis Open (Roland Garros) 22nd May - 5th June
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French Tennis Open (Roland Garros) (22nd May - 5th June 2016) |
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Royal Ascot Full Package 14th-18th June
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Free Tip
Super Rugby Sharks v Hurricanes, Saturday 7th May, Durban, (kick off 2pm SkySports 4)
This is only the fourth home game of the season for the Sharks who beat Los Jaguares 19-15 at Kings Park back in Round 2 but went down to the Crusaders (19-14) and the Lions (24-9) in subsequent home games. They return home after a three match tour of New Zealand which started with a narrow defeat at the Blues (23-18), peaked with a 15-14 win at the Highlanders and ended last week with a 24-22 loss at the table topping Chiefs. Getting at least bonus points (and losing by no more than five points) out of all four games against the NZ sides so far this season, even if only winning one of the games, is some achievement.
The Sharks are currently outside the play-off spots in the South African group. This has been inevitable all season because of a quirk of the frankly baffling new Super Rugby conference system that this year has seen the Stormers and Bulls scheduled against beatable Australian franchises and the Sharks (and Lions) have to play all five New Zealand teams, three away from home. Their schedule eases from here and they need to put a consistent run together to make the post season. Meanwhile in a play-off spot in the Australasian group, the Hurricanes currently have the 3rd best record of the 5 New Zealand teams.
The Hurricanes handed out a 50-17 beating to the Lions in Johannesburg last week, running in 7 tries and conceding 3. They now have 6 wins and 3 defeats but they have won 6 of the last 7 and 5 of those wins were accompanied by bonus points. This though has been the soft part of their schedule, with wins against non-play off contenders. Playing the Sharks in Durban is a completely different proposition to sticking 40-50 points on teams like the Western Force, Jaguares, Kings and Lions with three of the games in Wellington.
This should be a very close game yet the visitors have been installed as 8/11 favourites with the Sharks 6/4. At worst i would have this as a 50-50 game, considering the Sharks have been running all the New Zealand teams close away from home and the Hurricanes lack some of the structure and power of those sides. The Sharks are a very strong defensive team, and will play territory to try to stifle the Hurricanes attacking threat.
I like the Sharks to win this, outright (+4 on the handicap if you prefer)
15 points Sharks to beat the Hurricanes 8/5 William Hill (down to 11/8 is fine elsewhere)
When Sport becomes a soap opera.
The NFL Draft each April is the culmination of a year long process of NFL franchises scouting players about to leave college before selecting talent to restock their rosters ahead of the new season. Over the years the draft itself has become big business, with an industry of analysts opining over the selections both before, during and after the draft. Draft night itself is televised nationally, and now in the UK too
This year's first round last Thursday night was a dramatic one, even by the NFL’s standards. A few weeks ago the offensive tackle Laremy Tunsil was the consensus number one pick, likely to be drafted by the Tennessee Titans to protect their quarterback Marcus Mariota. Then, with an eye on rebuilding they traded the pick for a number of draft selections to the Rams, in need of a star young quarterback and the industry immediately began to speculate about who might Tunsil, with San Diego at 3 the favourite.
On the day of the draft itself, always littered with mis-information and leaks, the suggestion was that the Chargers would draft Ronnie Stanley at the same position ahead of Tunsil. Checking the thin UK betting markets that afternoon, I noted Tunsil was still 1/8 to be the first Offensive tackle drafted
13 minutes before the draft on Tunsil’s Twitter account a video was posted showing a large man with a huge black gas mask over his head with a bong attached to the end. He is seen adjusting a valve on the right side. There is a little cup attached to the bong that appears to contain a substance that is burning. Then there is smoke everywhere before the man takes the mask off his face and smiles. Tunsil admitted in an ESPN interview that the man in the video was him. Companies do video job interviews all the time. This is not what Tunsil had in mind to make a final impression on NFL teams, appearing to be inhaling something he shouldn’t have been inhaling.
He claims his Twitter account was hacked. “We’re going to try to find out who did it,” he said.
Tunsil gets credit because he didn’t try to talk his way out of it and claim it wasn’t him. He was also telling the truth about getting hacked – his Instagram was apparently hacked after the draft as well, showing alleged text message between Tunsil and a college staff member in which the player requested money.
Ultimately, thanks to bad decisions and the ugly side of social media.one man’s pain and frustration played out before a viewing audience of millions as Tunsil was one of thirty players invited by the NFL to attend the draft in Chicago and as each draft pick passed the camera would pan to Tunsil. Eventually Tunsil became the third offensive tackle drafted, by the Miami Dolphins at pick 13
Tunsil was already carrying some baggage coming into this draft but until the Twitter post, he was a top five pick for sure. Tunsil had already forced teams to do extensive background checks. He and his stepfather Lindsey Miller filed domestic violence charges against each other last year that were eventually dropped. He was also suspended the first seven games last season after the NCAA penalised him for receiving improper benefits.
Tunsil is not the first player to drop so far because of pre-draft drug stories. It happened to Warren Sapp in 1995 and it happened to Dan Marino in 1983. They both went on to have Hall of Fame careers
For now according to SportRac, Jared Goff, the No. 1 pick, is projected to receive a contract worth more than $25 million. The deal for a No. 13 pick will be roughly $12 million. Tunsil may indeed be a big success, on talent alone he would be. For him and the Dolphins though given the various situations he is dealing with, the stakes are high.
Brodders Football Analysis
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Euro & other Football by Brodders (monthly) |
- Betting £10 a point would be showing a profit of + £4096.70
- Long Term Profit - All Brodders bets since January 2014 are currently showing a ROI of +1.59% (over 2000 bets) (at 15th April 2016)
Bookmaker reviews and advice
Getting the best price available is very important for all those who take their betting seriously.
Please open an account with all those bookmakers on the page on this link that you do not already have an account with using the links provided.
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
£10 per point on every recommended bet since launch in Feb 2013 would be winning £13,968.70 (as at 15th April 2016)
All bets have an ROI +2.44% and Horse Racing has an ROI +4.85%
A £4000 bank (see FAQ re bank-roll requirements) betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £17,968.70 a 349% increase
