Coming Up this weekend

- Football, the Premier League continues and it is the second round of the FA Cup. A new write up in 'Premier League Over/Under 2.5 Goal Analysis'  has been published. Read it here

- NFL Week Thirteen. Sign up for week Thirteen coverage here

- Racing, national hunt at Aintree, Chepstow, Sandown Park and Wetherby and on the all weather at Wolverhampton.

- Golf, European Tour: Nedbank Golf Challenge in Sun City,South Africa.and European Tour: Australian PGA Championship on the Gold Coast in, Queensland. On the USPGA Tour: Hero World Challenge, in New Providence, Bahamas.

i-Pools

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Free Tip of the week

This Sunday at 9.25pm on Sky Sports 2 the last undefeated team in this NFL season, the Carolina Panthers, visit their NFC South divisional rivals the New Orleans Saints.

According to Vegas sportsbooks, the Saints have never closed as larger than a 6-point dog at home. They're currently +7 for Sunday's game against Carolina. Leaving point spreads and totals to Neil Channing’s weekly write-up, I‘ll once again focus on player sub-markets which for this game look clear.

The Saints are ranked 31^st of 32 NFL teams on defense and have fired their defensive co-ordinator Rob Ryan. The Panthers rank 2^nd in the league on defense giving up over 60 yards a game less than the Saints in the passing game through their first 11 games of this season. In the markets the Panthers have a high team over/under of 28 points for this game within total points quotes of +/- 50.

I am looking at the Panthers skill position players in this game’s sub-markets. Quarterbacks and tight ends against the 2015 Saints are on my betting short-list every week, but here both Panthers players are top options regardless of opponent: Cam Newton, a winner for this column a few weeks ago and Greg Olsen the Panthers top receiving option.

Since entering the league in 2011, only Marshawn Lynch has more rushing touchdowns inside the 5-yard line than Cam Newton's 27. The Saints have allowed 488 rushing yards over their past three games Tennessee, Washington and Houston, all teams that average less than 100 yards per game on the ground for the season.

 In his past two games against the Saints, Greg Olsen has 18 receptions for 206 yards and three touchdowns. New Orleans allows 78.2 receiving yards to tight ends per game this season, the second most in the league. The Saints allow 9.8 yards per pass attempt to opposing passers, the highest in the league.

What makes this game so attractive is not only the match-up on the one side of the ball mentioned above but also that Carolina not only is extremely stout against the run (have held opposing Running backs to 222 yards & 1 Touchdown on 82 carries over their last five games) but is only allowing a touchdown pass once every 34 pass attempts, the second best in the league. Meanwhile Saints Quarterback Drew Brees has only thrown a touchdown once every 20 pass attempts this season, his worst total since 2007. So we have a more than reasonable prospect of Carolina scoring first.

I will be looking at Newton and Olsen in all relevant markets for touchdowns and over/under rushing/passing and receiving yards. Early quotes have both odds-on in the anytime touchdown scorer market and I am going to pair the two in the first touchdown scorer market:

5 points Cam Newton first touchdown scorer 7-1 Bet365

5 points Greg Olsen first touchdown scorer 7-1 Bet365 (15-2 Paddy Power)

More firms will offer prices over the weekend.

 

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Done and Dusted

At the end of October I wrote in this column “The racing industry bites back” highlighting that bookmakers who do not pay levy on their digital operations will be barred from taking out new sponsorship deals on most races and festivals under new rules to be introduced by British racing.

The aim of the “authorised betting partners”  (ABP) scheme is to establish the principle that offshore betting operations, which evade the legal requirement to pay the racing Levy, need to make a contribution to the sport first and then plan their marketing spend, including sponsorship, after that. Five weeks since the introduction of ABP the situation has escalated.

The Cheltenham Gold Cup and the Group One Sprint Cup at Haydock are seeking sponsors after Betfred was dropped by Jockey Club Racecourses because the firm is not an ABP. Betfair, which is an ABP, has replaced 888Sport, which is not, as sponsor of the Tingle Creek Chase at Sandown. Last week in the Racing Post sources at Ladbrokes and Paddy Power were suggesting they too might not sponsor the world hurdle and Paddy Power Gold Cp respectively.

“There is no shortage of sports with broad appeal for sponsors like us who are eager to work with bookmakers to secure mutual benefits.” said a Ladbrokes spokesman.

Meanwhile Fred Done of Betfred, speaking for the first time since the news about the Gold Cup sponsorship broke last weekend, said he is "livid" at the way he has been treated, pointing out his firm has put £150 million directly into the sport over the last four years.

"Sometimes you have to stand up for your principles and that's what this is about.I can spend my money anywhere I want, with good value and people I want to spend it with.: "I believe we've been very badly treated. High-handed is a phrase I would use. I don't know how racing is going to get out of this one. It's going to have to be a massive u-turn on their part.I think relations between the betting industry and racing are worse than they've ever been. There's no trust."

Done said Betfred had made direct payments to racing of £150m over the last four years, through an estimated £14m per year in media rights, £46,105,000 in levy and £49,857,000 in other payments, including sponsorship. In the year to the end of September the company spent £7m in sponsorship and will have backed 670 races in 2015.

"Who else is putting all this money into racing?," Done said. "What more can I do? And then I get treated like this, you're not an authorised betting partner.I believe they've got an exaggerated view of what they're going to get from offshore bookmakers. We'll pay it, but at the right rate, and this isn't the right rate. They've made the wrong decision on it."

Bookmakers who do not pay anything to racing from their offshore revenue enjoy a commercial advantage over those firms that do. The slice of their gross profits that they keep can be spent on marketing, to lure punters away from their competitors, or simply fed into their margins to keep their odds competitive, or fund eye-catching “special offers”  to buy new accounts.

Sponsorship money is a very welcome source of income for racecourses of all sizes. What the ABP initiative seems to understand, though, is the futility of a short-term gain if it undermines the long-term financial viability of racing as a whole. It would be better to run races unsponsored if necessary – though there is a very slim risk of that at a marquee track such as Cheltenham.

There is also a potential first-mover advantage in this situation that could work to racing’s advantage. As Betfair’s swift acquisition of the Tingle Creek sponsorship showed, ABP status puts a betting firm in a strong position to pick up valuable contracts from its rivals with a first mover advantage to lock some of their competition out of some prime sponsorships for years to come.

The (possible) availability of the Grand National sponsorship is also interesting and  would be immensely attractive to a big bookmaker and as such a big carrot to dangle in front of dithering executives as they weigh up the pros and cons of ABP status. It is all part of the process of building up clear positives for ABP status, and quantifiable negatives for bookmakers that refuse to pay their fair share, and despite the talk of plugs being pulled, the racing side seems to be playing its hand quite well at the moment.

This appears to have been confirmed in the last 48 hours with news that Betfair becomes the first ‘Authorised Betting Partner’ of British Racing.   The BHA's Nick Rust said “we welcome the enlightened approach taken by Betfair. They clearly value our sport”. Two more firms - bet365 and 32Red - have also been granted authorised betting partner status in deals thought to span three years, with the sums raised expected to at least match the amount six companies offered on a voluntary basis during the recent levy negotiations.

 

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All Brodders bets since January 2014 are currently showing a ROI of +2.37% (over 1600 bets) (at 2nd November 2015)

Betting £10 a point would be showing a profit of +£4787

Subscription to Brodders' write ups, analysis and bets is £50 a month. You can join at any time

Subscribe here

Bookmaker reviews and advice

Getting the best price available is very important for all those who take their betting seriously.

Please open an account with all those bookmakers on the page on this link that you do not already have an account with using the links provided.

 There are literally hundreds of pounds on offer from bookmakers just for signing up through Bettingemporium.com

Betting Emporium results

The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS

£10 per point on every recommended bet since launch in Feb 2013 would be winning £11,291 (as at 2nd November 2015)

All bets have an ROI +2.48% and Horse Racing has an ROI +6.35%

There is also a Frequently Asked Questions Section

Coming Up this weekend

- Football, the Premier League including first v second, Leicester City v Manchester United. A new write up in 'Premier League Over/Under 2.5 Goal Analysis'  has been published. Read it here

- NFL Week Twelve. Sign up for week Twelve coverage here

- Racing, national hunt at Newbury including the Hennessey Gold Cup (see free tip below),  Bangor-on-dee, Doncaster and Newcastle and on the all-weather at Wolverhampton.

- Golf, on the European Tour: Alfred Dunhill Championship in South Africa.

 -Tennis, the Davis Cup Final: Belgium v Great Britain at the Flanders Expo, Ghent, Belgium.

- Formula One, the final race of the 2015 season the Abu Dhabi Grand Prix

i-Pools

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Free bet from Neil Channing

The Hennessey Gold Cup (Newbury 3pm)

The Hennessey is a great race to have a bet on. There are 17-runners and with all of them having this as their target for weeks and no surprises that the ground is soft I'm fairly sure we'll get 16+ runners which means at 1/4 1234 we are getting great value on the place part of most each-way bets. If anyone goes 12345 then it's incredible value.

All we need to do then is find something that will stay the extended 3m2f and that won't mind a proper slog in the mud. It also helps if they have a little class.

I've discounted a bunch of these as being either out of form, not good enough, doubtful stayers, not great on the ground or poorly handicapped. Everything over 20/1 was easy enough to fit into one of those categories so I'll focus on the others.

Theatre Guide may not really get home on this soft ground and he isn't well handicapped so he gets a red line through his name. It'll be a long year for The Druid's Nephew if it's 100% for this and the Grand National and Neil Mulholland says it's fresher this year. The drift in it's price is making me think it's not 100% ready here.

Houblon Des Obeaux was a surprise 2nd in this race last year and he'll like the ground and the slog plus his stable is in blinding form. I just don't really fancy betting him each-way after a poor prep run in a race as hot as this. Fingal Bay wouldn't totally surprise me, he'll like the ground and is a real stayer plus he has a good jockey on but I'm not sure it's a great price for one who doesn't always win when you think he might. Smad Place has been really popular but I can't have him at all at these prices. There is a good chance he'll hate the ground and he doesn't really want to go this far.

When the weights went up it was good for If In Doubt as he gets to be ridden by Barry Geraghty. There is no way I can bet him each-way though as he must be quite likely to fall. If he did get round he'd have a good shout though. The weights going up can't really have helped the favourite Saphir Du Rheu and much as I like this horse there is no way I'm taking 4/1 for him to hump nearly twelve stone round here. May not be as battle hardened as some of these.

Bob's Worth strikes me as a ridiculous price. That race he won here just proved he has four legs and a tail. It was over hurdles, the favourite ran poorly and the other fancied one fell while his stablemate Simonsig had been off years. Clearly the former Gold Cup winner was a great horse but to be 6/1 for this I'd really want to know he still is.

I'm left with two and I'm betting them both.

Ned Stark comes into the handicap with Coneygree out and Alan King has said he has strengthened up well and is a better horse this year. He's a young improver getting loads of weight, he's won round here and he likes soft ground. Looks very solid at the prices. Ought to stay but not guaranteed.

 The Young Master has been aimed at this. He's better in with Saphir du Rheu for their potter round Carlisle, he ought to get a soft lead up front, he has a great trainer and he has won over further and won on heavy. The horse was so disappointing at the Festival this year but I'm going to forgive him and I still think he is a great horse.

 I'm having 7 Points each-way Ned Stark at 11/1 1/4 1234 with Paddy Power and Betfair Sportsbook (would take 10/1).

 I'm having 8 Points each-way The Young Master at 11/1 1/4 1234 with Hills (happily take 10/1).

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The importance of Turnovers in NFL betting

The other week, as I was watching an NFL team I had backed on the spread lose conceding 4 more turnovers (interceptions, fumbles) than their opponents I remembered that turnovers are a crucial component of understanding betting on the NFL. The Week after, the same team won the turnover battle and won outright away from home as seven point underdogs. Only this week, on one of the Thanksgiving games, the Cowboys were -3 on turnovers and effectively had no shot of beating the Panthers as a result. Later that evening the Packers were -2 on turnovers against the Bears as 8 point favourites, and lost. On the season the 3-8 Cowboys are an incredible -12 on turnovers which, as well as the key injuries, goes a long way to explain why a talented roster is underperforming expectations.

Taking data from 2012-2014 across the NFL season, if a team has just one more turnover than the other team over the course of a game, it will win 69.6% of the time, compared to home teams winning 57.2% of the time. Winning percentage only increases as the turnover differential mounts up with a turnover differential of +3 or more in a game meaning teams win 90.7% of the time over the three year sample.

Some of a team’s turnover differential is due to talent —Aaron Rodgers throwing very few interceptions and JJ Watt strip-sacking the quarterback for example and some is due to luck, because things like this happen. How much is due to luck and how much due to skill is a source of much debate.

This is category in NFL statistics and betting that offers a troublesome combination of relatively low predictability but very high impact. If there’s “a mystery to solve” with a final score that doesn’t make sense based on the numbers you saw in total yardage in the game it’s likely because the superior team in that data had a turnover debacle. It’s arguably the driving randomising force that affects win rates in NFL betting.

Turnovers have befuddled the NFL analytics industry for years. There’s still not a consensus as to how turnovers should be handled. One extreme says that turnovers are so close to being random that you should just treat them that way. Assume regression to the mean is coming for any team that temporarily has an imbalance.The other extreme says that turnover tendencies are far from random, and you should expect “turnover prone” offenses to continue making mistakes while “turnover forcing” defenses will continue to earn high impact takeaways.

One analyst claims that fumbles are 90% random. A model that uses turnovers will accurately describe what has happened already but doesn’t project well into the future. In a similar fashion, the recently defunct Grantland found that turnovers forced by a defense were 98% random. Hence teams that enjoy a large turnover margin are getting lucky and shouldn’t expect this luck to continue

If you’re new to the NFL, pro teams try to limit themselves to 0-1 turnovers per game. Anything at 2 or more is a disappointment, with 3 or more being really bad news. There are so many personnel moves between each season with head coaches and quarterbacks that it’s best to start fresh each year with your assessments. Do start with an assumption that veteran quarterbacks will be more efficient than relative newcomers, unless those newcomers are there mostly to hand off, throw short passes, or run with the ball themselves.

While the ability to handicap turnovers can be argued, it's common knowledge that the value of a turnover is roughly 4 points. Therefore if Team A wins a game 13-9 with a one turnover advantage, you can make a side note that the teams played even on the scoreboard when you back out the turnover edge. This gives you two of many different ways to look at the game in hindsight. 

What I find very valuable is to keep records of how teams do when they lose the turnover battle, paying special attention to when they are able to cover games despite having a turnover disadvantage. That tells me the team may be on the rise and I should look for a way to play that squad in the future, perhaps in ante-post betting for the next season if, as with the Cowboys example above for next season, the trend in turnovers persists for most of a season.

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All Brodders bets since January 2014 are currently showing a ROI of +2.37% (over 1600 bets) (at 2nd November 2015)

Betting £10 a point would be showing a profit of +£4787

Subscription to Brodders' write ups, analysis and bets is £50 a month. You can join at any time

Subscribe here

Bookmaker reviews and advice

Getting the best price available is very important for all those who take their betting seriously.

Please open an account with all those bookmakers on the page on this link that you do not already have an account with using the links provided.

 There are literally hundreds of pounds on offer from bookmakers just for signing up through Bettingemporium.com

Betting Emporium results

The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS

£10 per point on every recommended bet since launch in Feb 2013 would be winning £11,291 (as at 2nd November 2015)

All bets have an ROI +2.48% and Horse Racing has an ROI +6.35%

There is also a Frequently Asked Questions Section

Coming Up this weekend

- Football, the Premier League returns after the International break including Manchester City v Liverpool and Tottenham v West Ham. A new write up in 'Premier League Over/Under 2.5 Goal Analysis'  has been published. Read it here

- NFL Week Eleven. Sign up for week Eleven coverage here

- Racing, national hunt at Ascot, Haydock Park and Huntington. All weather flat at Lingfield Park and Wolverhampton

- Golf, on the European Tour: the World Tour Championship in Dubai and on the USPGA Tour The RSM Classic, in, Sea Island, Georgia.

 -Tennis, the ATP World Tour Finals in London.

- Rugby Union, European Rugby Champions Cup Pool matches.

- MotorSport, the Race of Champions from the Olympic Stadium, London.

i-Pools

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Free Tip of the Week

Week 11 of the NFL season bring a potentially great game at the top of the NFC North as the 7-2 Minnesota Vikings host the 6-3 Green Bay Packers (Sunday 9.25pm, Sky Sports 2). The two teams have gone in opposite directions of late, with the Vikings winning five straight games and the Packers losing three in a row after a 6-0 start. The Vikings have gone 8-0 against the spread too after losing their opening game against the 49ers

At the time of writing the Vikings are -1 with a game over/under of 45 points and as usual I will leave opinions on those lines to Neil and focus on player props.

One of the bets I recommended in the NFL ante post article in August was Adrian Peterson- Most rushing yards at 5/1. So far so good. Through nine games in 2015, Peterson is ahead of where he was in 2012, his.2,097 rushing yard, MVP-winning season. Currently Peterson leads all league running backs in attempts (195) and yards (961). Peterson is 227 yards clear of the competition in his hunt for a third rushing title. He is eighth in yards per carry (4.92), tied-2^nd in 20+ yard runs (7) & Tied-5th in Touchdowns (5).

In the last six games Peterson has been the highest volume back in the NFL. His touches over those games are: 16, 27, 22, 22, 31, 29. In that time he has 14 touches in the red-zone, with no other Minnesota running back featured.

A part of the reason why Peterson has been used so heavily is that Vikings’ quarterback Teddy Bridgewater has had a concussion and a bad shoulder which has limited the Vikings passing game. Pass protection has been also been an issue for the Vikings, so play calling has often reverted back to the safest option, Peterson.

Another part of the reason is Peterson is running against defenses stacked against the run about half as often as he did in 2012 (3.3 times per game compared to 6.45 times per game that season), and the Vikings have hit on something with a three-tight end package that has helped pave the way for three of Peterson's longest runs this season (80, 48 and 43 yards). The Vikings manufacture scenarios in which Peterson has a lead blocker (Peterson's preference) with tight end motions and pulls in this package.

On the other side of the ball the Vikings defense leads the league with fewest points allowed and the Packers have had plenty of issues on offense in their three week losing run both running the ball and through the air where they are really missing number one receiver Jordy Nelson. Of course Aaron Rodgers and the Packers are too good to stay in a slump for long, but facing the league’s top defense isn’t going to be an easy task.

With the Packers offense spluttering, their run defense ranked 24^th in the league and the Vikings leading the league in 147 rushing yards per game, with health worries about the quarterback and potentially bad weather too, this is set up for another big Adrian Peterson game.

6 points Adrian Peterson first touchdown scorer 11/2 Skybet

(added Sunday lunchtime): 12 points Adrian Peterson over 105.5 rushing yards 10/11 Bet365, Skybet or William Hill.

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FOBTs and Betting Restrictions

Recent campaigns have highlighted bookmakers which reject some over the counter bets, but have no such restrictions on FOBT gambling.

A recent Radio 5 live investigation, "Banned from Bookies” received wide publicity and a few days later, a group of heavily restricted bettors gamblers handed in a Charter to the Association of British Bookmakers (ABB) head office, with a petition which called on the Chair of the ABB to initiate a public inquiry into bet acceptance.

A central part of the petition was to state that Over the counter betting is required to be the primary activity of the betting shop licence. FOBTs, the betting shop machines, have a maximum payoff of £500 per spin and there was no justification for bookmakers refusing anyone a bet on what should be their primary activity of betting, if the payoff will be up to £500 – the same as on their FOBTs.

The petition went on to highlight that one of the licensing objectives in the 2005 Gambling Act is that gambling should be "fair and open” commenting

“Where is the easy-to-read notice in the betting shop that says: "If we don't like your bet, we won't take it" There isn't one. Regular gamblers continue losing in the hope they might one-day turn into winning gamblers without knowing it is impossible to be a winner, as if they do begin to win their account will be closed or restricted. How can this be "fair and open"”?

Bookmakers say they only want to restrict "professional" gamblers, which is clearly not the case in practice. However  if they suspect bets are from "professionals" then they have the ability to send the money back to the track to reduce the starting price odds. They are in control of the odds, not the punter.

The Gambling Commission has postulated that one day there may be no controls over stakes and prizes on gaming machines such as FOBTs. The petition says "How can this position ever be justified when bookmakers themselves apply limits on horse race gamblers?"

The ABB did not want to respond to 5 Live’s investigation. Paddy Power commented, a spokeswoman made the "commercial decision" excuse for the bookies claiming that it was better to pay £2,000 to 1,000 customers than £2 million to one customer.

Sensible "responsible" gambling involves limiting frequency, stakes and selections. That is what sensible gamblers do. FOBT roulette gambling is irrational as losses are far faster than casino roulette, and it is impossible to win in the long term. Even banned horse-race gamblers are invited back into shops to get deals to play on FOBTs The ABB, despite claiming to be a "responsible" gambling advocate, defends FOBTs and also defends bookmakers banning sensible gamblers, two diametrically opposed and incompatible positions.

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All Brodders bets since January 2014 are currently showing a ROI of +2.37% (over 1600 bets) (at 2nd November 2015)

Betting £10 a point would be showing a profit of +£4787

Subscription to Brodders' write ups, analysis and bets is £50 a month. You can join at any time

Subscribe here

Bookmaker reviews and advice

Getting the best price available is very important for all those who take their betting seriously.

Please open an account with all those bookmakers on the page on this link that you do not already have an account with using the links provided.

 There are literally hundreds of pounds on offer from bookmakers just for signing up through Bettingemporium.com

Betting Emporium results

The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS

£10 per point on every recommended bet since launch in Feb 2013 would be winning £11,291 (as at 2nd November 2015)

All bets have an ROI +2.48% and Horse Racing has an ROI +6.35%

There is also a Frequently Asked Questions Section

Coming Up this weekend

- Football, the Premier League takes an International break, with England playing friendlies in Spain on Friday night and at home to France next Tuesday.

- NFL Week Ten games. Sign up for week Ten coverage here

- Racing, national hunt at Cheltenham (including the Paddy Power Gold Cup see free tip below), Uttoxeter and Wetherby, on the flat at Lingfield and Wolverhampton

- Golf, European Tour: BMW Masters in Shanghai and USPGA Tour: OHL Classic in Mexico.

 -Tennis, the Fed Cup World Group Final: Czech Republic v Russia in Prague.

- Formula One, the Brazilian Grand Prix at Interlagos

- Rugby Union, the opening pool games of the European Rugby Champions Cup

i-Pools

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Free Tip of the Week from Neil Channing

Really great to have proper racing back and the race I'll always think of as the Mackeson (Paddy Power Gold Cup Cheltenham 2.25) is one of my favourites of the year. The fact that it's a 20-runner handicap and some firms pay 5 places makes it even better.

 The secret to this race is often to pick an improving unexposed younger horse and I'm happily ruling out all the eight year olds and above. The other thing that I'm thinking about when I look at this race is that there will be loads of early pace from the likes of Boondooma, Next Sensation and the favourite King's Palace and I think that might be a bad thing for the favourite who has tended to try and dominate small fields. I wouldn't back any of those three each-way as the pace could mean they crack at the 2nd-last and they fade away. The Pipe horses didn't run great on day one of the meeting and I think the other two mentioned are big doubts to be staying on up the hill.

 Taking those three and the older horses out and we are left with ten. It's not too hard to get that down to a shorter list.

Splash of Ginge should be Ok if it rains a lot, comes off the pace and could win but he jumps so poorly and for an each-way bet I really want a solid one that will place more than the prices suggest they will.

Shanpallas has way more miles on the clock than some of these and he didn't really finish in this race on soft ground last year when he finished 6th. Could win but not too solid.

Present View likes it here and he finished 3rd in this race when favourite last year but he's hardly been keeping secrets from the handicapper and he's ran poorly this season.

Annacotty has moved stable to Alan King and that's a huge positive. The horse has winning form over course and distance and he likes the ground but it's a long time off and it might be tough to have him at his best...even that could be a bit short of the standard here.

Oscar Rock has all his form on tracks that are totally different to this so I won't be taking a chance with him.

Cocktails at Dawn ran poorly at the Festival last year and has never run well here. I'd like to see that it can do it here before I'd fancy betting it in this one.

Sound Investment carries a chunk of weight and has no form here. Not for me.

Generous Ransom runs well here and is weighted to beat Irish Cavalier on two pieces of form and if he hadn't had run so poorly here last time I'd have surely been on. I'm going to reluctantly pass though.

Art Mauresque is definitely a young improving horse but there are a few reasons why I couldn't bet him here. Firstly he may be a little too inexperienced, secondly I've seen him jump to the right, thirdly he does tend to run near the front and that may make things tough here and fourthly Paul Nicholls stated before his last race that he needed good ground and that rain was a bad thing.

I'm left with one and that's lucky as it's the one I fancied before I started writing anything. Irish Cavalier is trained by Rebecca Curtis who is definitely in form. The horse is young and improving, he's won over the trip, he won well last time, he comes from off the pace and he doesn't mind a bit of cut. I think this is a horse that could easily improve a lot more this year and it seems so solid here.

 I'm having 12 Points each-way at 10/1 Irish Cavalier 1/4 1,2,3,4,5 William Hill, Ladbrokes or BetVictor

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The 2015-16 European Rugby Champions Cup

The 2015-16 European Rugby Champions Cup (ERCC) begins on the weekend of 14-15 November. The final will take place at Lyon's new Grand Stade de Lyon, which is due to open later this year, on 14 May 2016.

Toulon beat Clermont 24-18 in last year’s final at Twickenham, the second time in three years that Europe’s top club rugby tournament had been contested by two French sides, as well as the third year running that Europe’s flagship side hailed from the Top 14.

The Pool draw for this year’s competition is as follows:

POOL ONE: Saracens, Ulster, Toulouse, Oyonnax

POOL TWO: Clermont Auvergne, Ospreys, Exeter, Bordeaux

POOL THREE: Glasgow, Northampton, Racing 92, Scarlets

POOL FOUR: Stade Francais, Munster, Leicester, Treviso

POOL FIVE: Bath, Toulon, Leinster, Wasps

Pool winners and the best three runners up qualify for the quarter-finals, with the four Pool winners with the best records having home advantage for the first of the kockout stage ties.

Looking ahead to this year’s competition, the structural reasons why French clubs do so well in this competition persist. French rugby is structured to give their clubs maximum advantage, often at the expense of the national side. For English clubs the salary cap is due to rise from £4.3m to £5.5 million next season with the allowance of two marquee players, but it is dwarfed by the £8.6m which clubs can spend in France’s Top 14 competition.

In a domestic game already full of top quality imports, the top 14 has had its biggest influx of southern hemisphere talent following the Rugby World Cup. This was underscored with the announcement that All Black fly-half Dan Carter had signed a record £1.3m a season three-year deal with Racing Metro.

For all of the French sides, budgets are almost twice as big as the English Premiership clubs competing in the European Champions’ Cup and it is nowhere near a level playing field. In England while the salary cap is protecting the lower half of the league, it is restricting the top half from competing against the top teams in Europe

Similar problems exist for Irish, Scottish and Welsh sides of which there are five in this year’s ERCC. The Irish Rugby Union part funds its provinces and places restrictions in terms of players that aren’t qualified to play for Ireland, allowing only three foreign players – plus project players [foreign players that could qualify for Ireland in future] in the squads – which leaves them at a disadvantage to the English and French teams.

The Scottish Rugby Union funds Glasgow and Edinburgh and whilst Glasgow in particular (mirroring the national team’s ascent) are more competitive in recent years, any increases in player costs have to come from central funds which could and should be used for the whole of the Scottish game. The same situation exists in Wales.

The approach by the Irish, Scottish and Welsh unions is probably good news for their national sides long term, domestic players will be exposed to top competition sooner than their French counterparts, but it doesn’t help them towards success in the ERCC.

A handful of French club owners are distorting the whole of world rugby. Just taking one club as an example, ERCC holders Toulon, here are just a few of their new players for this year:

Ma’a Nonu, world cup winner

Samu Manoa, US national captain from Northampton

Quade Cooper, World cup finalist squad member

James O’Connor, 44 Australian caps

Duane Vermeulen, first choice South Africa number 8

And, though currently missing through injury, Paul O’Connell from Munster and Ireland. In addition to these players Toulon can call last season's overseas players such as Matt Giteau, Bryan Habana and Drew Mitchell through the competition and have strength in depth that no non-French side can muster with their constraints.

The impact of these structural issues is seen in the betting market for the event, where 5 of the top 8 at the head of the market are French sides, it is 9-1 bar last year’s finalists Toulon and Clermont and the top non French and English side quoted in the betting is Leinster at 20-1+.

Clermont are 3-1 favourites to win this year's tournament, helped by having a noticeably easier pool than Toulon who are quoted as 4-1 second favourites with Skybet. At BetVictor amongst other outlets you can back Toulon at 7-2 each way getting half odds top two. This strikes me as very attractive given their massive squad strength and the inherent advantages they have relative to their competition from sides in the Four home unions.

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All Brodders bets since January 2014 are currently showing a ROI of +2.37% (over 1600 bets) (at 2nd November 2015)

Betting £10 a point would be showing a profit of +£4787

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