Weekly Articles "Road to Riches" by Rich 'Tighty' Prew
The Road to Riches Weekend of 20th-21st February
- Football, either side of the Champions League last sixteen round matches, it is the FA Cup fifth round this weekend including Chelsea v Manchester City and Tottenham v Crystal Palace.
- Racing, national hunt meetings at Haydock, Ascot and Wincanton and on the all-weather at Lingfield
- Tennis, ATP events in Rio de Janeiro, Delray Beach, Florida and Marseille. WTA Dubai Duty Free Tennis Championships.
- Golf, USPGA Tour: Northern Trust Open in Pacific Palisades, California and European Tour: Maybank Championship Malaysia in Kuala Lumpur.
- Cricket, the second T20 International between South Africa and England in Johannesburg on Sunday
Premier League Darts (Feb 4th - May 19th 2016)
Weekly coverage by Nigel Seeley for the 2016 Premier League Darts. After two of the sixteen weeks Nigel's selections were showing an 14% ROI.
The package costs £50. Sign Up here
Cheltenham Preview Night: Saturday 12th March
Following the success of last year's great Cheltenham Preview dinner we are pleased to announce details of this years.
When: Saturday 12th March 2016 (630pm Champagne reception, followed by four course dinner inc wine)
Where: The Bleeding Heart Restaurant, Bleeding Heart Yard, off Greville Street, Hatton Garden, London EC1N 8SJ
- Lovely dinner in an amazing restaurant
- Excellent panel
- A no waffle preview that is concerned only with making money for all of us
- A chance to meet the Betting Emporium team
Full details and buy tickets HERE
Free Tip by Neil Channing 3.35pm Ascot Chase
Very nice to get a big price winner for the regular Road to Riches followers last week, sadly this week there were a couple of races that had a lot of declarations which I thought might offer us four places but sadly the fields cut-up. We do still have a great race in the shape of the Ascot race which may not be the best ever Grade 1 Chase but which, (hopefully), gives us a lovely eight runners and a good each-way angle.
The favourite Silviniaco Conti would have been odds-on to win this kind of race a year ago and he'd probably eat these horses for breakfast. If he does win people will talk about what a great price he was and how obvious it looked and how you can always forgive a bad run. I tend to think there have been a few bad runs now though and I can't see this as a solid each-way bet. If anything I'd say it's a place lay.
Dynaste is another horse who has more than gone off the boil. I personally never really thought of him as a Grade 1 chaser and I don't think I'd rush to back him in Grade 2 races at short prices.
Triolo D’alene was another one I put a line through quickly. The horse is being aimed for the Grand National and I'm sure it won't be absolutely 100% buzzing here and really knocked about to win. It also, maybe more importantly, will not like the ground much.
I'm also ruling out the other Nicky Henderson horse Ma Filleule, one that I've loved over the years but one that is basically here as a stepping stone to the Ryan Air. It's so hard to peak these older horses for more than one race in a short space of time and I'd rather she runs well here in a nice preparation for the real target.
Amore Alato is an interesting runner but this could be a long way home for him and Savello is interesting in that he flits between hurdles and fences but basically he ought not to be good enough.
I'm certainly tempted by Flemenstar who has run a couple of nice races after coming back from injury and who will love this soft ground. The trip and the journey over would be my doubts and for that reason I don't want to have two bets and rely on a solid run but I was pretty tempted.
The really solid horse to my mind is Royal Regatta. We know the stable and jockey are in form, the horse has won at the track, he likes the soft ground and he definitely stays. If you were looking to find a flaw you might say that he lacks the class to win a decent Grade 1 race but I think we've established that this is far from top class and if we just need to get round in the first three to make a small profit I like the idea of betting one that ought to enjoy himself and that we know will stay. A couple of firms are doing 1/4 123 in this race and that makes this horse a great each-way bet. I'd happily take 6/1 getting 1/4 but at 1/5th odds I'd need 7/1 really.
I'm having 8 Points each-way Royal Regatta at 15/2 1/4 123 with Corals (if that goes then I'd try to get 15/2 win only on Betfair or see if firms go 7/1 when the market has settled a bit).
A different kind of season
With a hat tip to Sporting Intelligence whose table it was, after last weekend’s Premier League fixtures I saw the following table given the last title wins for sides in the current league positions listed
Premier League table (Last English league title)
1: Never
2: 1961
3: 2004
4: 2014
5: 2013
6: Never
7: Never
8: 1990
9: Never
10: Never
Of course much attention is on Leicester, who I confidently predicted would “revert to the mean” when I wrote on the subject in December and notwithstanding a late defeat at Arsenal haven’t yet but the performances of Tottenham, West Ham, Southampton and Watford amongst others are helping break the stranglehold of the recent league winners in the top 4 and for the moment at least top ten with Chelsea sitting in the bottom half.
Last week I had the opportunity to go on a tour of the Leicester City training ground (ostensibly for my son’s birthday, but who am I kidding…) and was struck at the difference from my last visit over a decade ago.
“What’s that?” a lad pointed at a piece of apparatus behind a window
“A cryotherapy chamber. Players go in it and it aids their recovery after games” came the reply
“Here’s the indoor training facilities” said the guide, and the door opened to a hangar-sized building full of equipment, computer terminals and white boards
We moved on.
“Here are the medical and physiotherapy facilities” and in we trotted to a room that resembled a small hospital, again crammed with equipment.
As we neared the end of the tour the Guide spoke conspiratorially “The scouts work in that room” We waited for more, but he smiled and ushered us on.
This is all to illustrate just some of the factors behind the success of one of the sides doing well this season. To my mind the points of difference lie in two areas
a) Facilities outside the top 4 have caught up with the bigger clubs fast. With respect to sports science Leicester have been lucky to avoid lengthy injury absences to players this season (the injury list currently contains one player). Very few muscular injuries has been a continual theme at Leicester for some years and they have been all too frequent at Arsenal, Liverpool and Manchester United amongst others, though clearly the number of games and competitions the bigger sides play in is a factor.
b) Recruitment. For example in the summer the analytics team at Leicester looked for candidates for the kind of midfielder the club needed and Caen’s N’Golo Kante now one of the emerging starts of our league was identified. Two years ago after buying Mahrez for £400,000, a player Arsene Wenger admitted last week he had never heard of when he was transferred into English football, this was another example of where scouting at games was complemented by statistics.
One scout in an article recently said
‘Ten years ago only the top clubs could afford to watch and gather information on players across the world and make informed decisions/ Now that information is available to everyone with the stats.Technology has definitely allowed the so-called smaller clubs to close the information gap.’
We should probably expect that to continue. Once new TV rights deals start, Premier League clubs will share £8billion plus between 2016-2019. TV money now forms such a large part of a club’s turnover that gate receipts are only of marginal importance. Clubs such as Aston Villa, Newcastle and Sunderland are finding this to their cost. A greater predictor of success than historic size and fanbases is the utilisation of resources off the field in sports science and scouting.
Leicester, and other sides progressing fast off the field, once again provide a cautionary tale to taking short match prices about big Premier League names in a division with a greater spread of talent, on and off the field, than in previous years. This will accelerate in 2016-17 and onwards.
Brodders Football Analysis
Brodders analysis and write ups throughout January 2016: In total there were 57 bets at an average of just over 14 points each. They showed a profit of +156.89 points and a ROI of 19.16%. February to date Feb +£1449 at £10 a point with an ROI of 22%
If you had bet £10 a point throughout January 2016 you would have won £1568.90
Sign up to Brodders match analysis and recommended bets here for £50 a month. You are free to cancel at any time.
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Euro & other Football by Brodders (monthly) |
£50 Sign Up Here |
Brodders shows a long term proven profit on his Euro and other football selections. If you had bet £10 a point on every recommended bet since 2014 you would be winning £6169.30.
Getting the best price available is very important for all those who take their betting seriously.
Please open an account with all those bookmakers on the page on this link that you do not already have an account with using the links provided.
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
£10 per point on every recommended bet since launch in Feb 2013 would be winning £12,088.40 (as at 9th February 2016)
A £4000 bank (see FAQ re bank-roll requirements) betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £16,088.40 a 350% increase
All bets have an ROI +2.30% and Horse Racing has an ROI +6.14%
There is also a Frequently Asked Questions Section
The Road to Riches: Weekend of 13th-14th February
- Football, the Premier League weekend sees the top four teams meet, Arsenal v Leicester City and Manchester City v Tottenham. The latest Premier League Statistical Analysis write up has been published here
- Rugby Union, the second weekend of the Six Nations Championship
- Racing, national hunt meetings at Uttoxeter, Warwick and Newbury. On the all-weather at Wolverhampton and Lingfield
- Tennis, ATP events in Rotterdam, Buenos Aires and Memphis. WTA events in Taiwan and St Petersburg.
- Golf, European Tour: Tshwane Open in Pretoria and USPGA Tour: AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am in Pebble Beach, California.
- Cricket, the fifth and final ODI between South Africa and England in Cape Town
Premier League Darts (Feb 4th - May 19th 2016)
Weekly coverage by Nigel Seeley for the 2016 Premier League Darts. After two of the sixteen weeks Nigel's selections are showing an 18% ROI.
The package costs £50. Sign Up here
Cheltenham Preview Night: Saturday 12th March
Following the success of last year's great Cheltenham Preview dinner we are pleased to announce details of this years.
When: Saturday 12th March 2016 (630pm Champagne reception, followed by four course dinner inc wine)
Where: The Bleeding Heart Restaurant, Bleeding Heart Yard, off Greville Street, Hatton Garden, London EC1N 8SJ
- Lovely dinner in an amazing restaurant
- Excellent panel
- A no waffle preview that is concerned only with making money for all of us
- A chance to meet the Betting Emporium team
Full details and buy tickets HERE
Free Tip, the Betfair Hurdle (Newbury 3.35pm Saturday) by Neil Channing
Those of you who regularly read my Road to Riches write up will know the drill here. Although the Betfair Hurdle is a massively tough race to find the winner in and it's often one of the most competitive races of the year, it is still a great race in which to have an each-way bet and even if you just got four places that would be the case. The fact that we have a favourite that is under 5/1 and we get five places with a lot of firms mean that you just have to have a bet.
I could definitely see the favourite Blazer winning easily, it is very well in at the weights and it's trained by Willie Mullins plus Barry Geraghty has chosen it when he had a whole squad to decide between. It's hard to take around 7/2 on a horse that is so inexperienced though.
Modus has Nick Scholfield on board which doesn't massively hurt his chance but I can see why Geraghty picked Blazer over him particularly as he may not like the ground. War Sound and the two above him in the weights have a massive task giving chunks away and I reckon Starchitect could be weak in the betting as it may not like the ground, the stable is not totally firing and it's had so long off. Zarib is from a stable in good form but this one is pretty quirky and he too may not like this ground. Forest Bihan is a real dark horse but I'd like something with a little more experience that I'm confident will be thereabouts.
I'm left with three horses at below 25/1 and I'll focus on those.
Sternrubin is solid enough, he cost us a dead-heat when I thought Jolly's Cracked It had won at Ascot last time but he gamely came back after getting headed late on. He is up eight pounds and you can see why Richard Johnson would pick him. I definitely wouldn't put you off but he just doesn't quite quicken the pulse at the prices. If you like to bet three or four though this is one you must save on.
Affaire D'Honneur does not tick my box of being solid and experienced as it has only run once in the UK. The run it produced on it's Kempton debut was pretty encouraging, it has Grade One entries, it comes from a stable in form and has a great jockey. This one was impossible to give a rating to and it could be really well handicapped. I'm going to take a chance at this price.
Agrapart is also from a stable in form and is another who isn't hugely exposed. This one will probably attempt to take up the lead early on and that might make him vulnerable but at the prices I'm happy to take a chance. I certainly feel like Lizzie causes horses to go off at bigger prices than her talents deserve.
I'm having 7 Points each-way Affaire D'Honneur at 10/1 1/4 12345 with several firms.
I'm having 5 Points each-way Agrapart at 20/1 1/4 12345 with Bet365 and Paddy Power.
Point Spreads
Most people view the Point-Spread (or line) as the predicted margin of victory of one team over another. The job though of a bookmaker is to get a balance of staked money on both sides. By achieving this, with c50% of the money being wagered on each team, the bookmaker is guaranteed to make money. The usual odds in point spread bets are 10/11. If the point spread splits the money, the bookmaker effectively uses the money from the losing side to pay the winners and has the extra 10% as margin.
To do this, an odds compiler is really gauging public perception. For example, if Team A is 4 points better than Team B, but the public thinks that Team A is 6 points better than Team B, then the points spread is more likely to be closer to 6 points (public perception) than it will be to 4 points (the realistic difference between the teams). So, the job of a handicapper is to be more right than the general betting public.
The large majority of people that bet on sporting events believe that they are going to win, but the fact is that the large majority of sports bettors lose in the long run. In fact, the average sports bettor wins at a rate of 48%. The break-even mark is 52.4% (you need to win 11 bets for every 10 you lose and 11 divided by 21 is equal to .524). Even the best and most knowledgeable handicappers win at a rate of about 57% to 60% in the long run. Misperceptions exist in the minds of many.
First, there are many sports bettors that think winning 60% of their bets is easy and that they can do even better than that. More than likely, those that think that they win at least 60% of their bets are suffering from selective memory, which entails remembering their winning weeks while forgetting about the losses.. The other popular misconception is that winning 58% of your bets will not make you much money. On the contrary, 58% winners at 10/11 odds will make you profit over the course of the year.
Brodders Football Analysis
We hope that you enjoyed all of Brodders analysis and write ups throughout January 2016. In total there were 57 bets at an average of just over 14 points each. They showed a profit of +156.89 points and a +ROI of 19.16%
If you had bet £10 a point throughout January 2016 you would have won £1568.90
Sign up to Brodders match analysis and recommended bets here for £50 a month. You are free to cancel at any time.
|
Euro & other Football by Brodders (monthly) |
£50 Sign Up Here |
Brodders shows a long term proven profit on his Euro and other football selections. If you had bet £10 a point on every recommended bet since 2014 you would be winning £6169.30.
Getting the best price available is very important for all those who take their betting seriously.
Please open an account with all those bookmakers on the page on this link that you do not already have an account with using the links provided.
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
£10 per point on every recommended bet since launch in Feb 2013 would be winning £12,088.40 (as at 9th February 2016)
A £4000 bank (see FAQ re bank-roll requirements) betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £16,088.40 a 350% increase
All bets have an ROI +2.30% and Horse Racing has an ROI +6.14%
There is also a Frequently Asked Questions Section
The Road to Riches Weekend of 6th-7th February
- Football, a full Premier league weekend including Manchester Cty v Leicester City on Saturday lunchtime. A Premier League Statistical Analysis write up has been published here
- NFL, Superbowl 50 from Santa Clara, California, the Denver Broncos v the Carolina Panthers
- Rugby Union, the opening weekend of the 2016 Six Nations.
- Racing, national hunt meetings at Sandown, Wetherby and Ffos Las and on the all weather at Lingfield
- Tennis, ATP Open Sud de France in Montpellier, ATP Garanti Koza Sofia Open and ATP Ecuador Open Quito. Fed Cup World Group 1st Round ties.
- Golf, USPGA Tour: Waste Management Phoenix Open at TPC Scottsdale in Arizona. European Tour: Omega Dubai Desert Classic, Emirates GC, Dubai.
- Cricket, the second ODI between South Africa and England in Port Elizabeth
NFL - Super Bowl XLX (inc the prop bets)
Superbowl 50, Carolina Panthers v Denver Broncos is on February 7th
The package costs £25. Sign up here
(If you subscribed to the playoffs the Super Bowl is included)
This is one of the best situations of the whole year for finding excellent value and bookmaker mistakes.
NFL 2014 Superbowl and Playoffs results: 231 points bet, 31.7 points profit, +13.72% ROI
NFL 2015 Superbowl and Playoffs results: 524 points bet, 49.51 points profit, +9.45% ROI
Premier League Darts (Feb 4th - May 19th 2016)
Weekly coverage by Nigel Seeley for the 2016 Premier League Darts.
The package costs £50. Sign Up here
Six Nations Rugby Package (6th February - 19th March 2016)
Following a successful Rugby World Cup package (+28.3% ROI), Six Nations. An outright preview and previews of each game on the weekend opening weekend are available now
The package costs £50. Sign Up here
Free Tip South Africa v England Second ODI Cricket 6th February
In the first game of the five match series in Bloemfontein on Wednesday England went 1-0 up scoring 399 then ahead on Duckworth-Lewis when the rain came midway through the second innings.
On Saturday (8am GMT start) the second game takes place in the coastal town of Port Elizabeth In terms of the outright market for this second game, South Africa 10/11 England Evens sees a shortening of the England price after their first game victory.
Unlike the first game this is not a day-nighter. In day-night ODIs outside the UK there is often a big advantage to winning the toss and batting, putting up a score and then defending a total under lights. The Port Elizabeth match is a day-only game.
England’s approach to ODIs is much changed. Only a year ago the side was eliminated from the group stages of the World Cup in Australasia, followed by a disappointing result on the tour of the West Indies. In this format England had failed to move with the times, new regulations ((two power-plays, only four fielders outside the inner ring for the first forty overs) demanded a more aggressive batting approach than the way England had set up their ODI innings for decades, to accumulate in the early overs and then accelerate at the end.
This changed with the appointment of a new coach in the summer and a new team selection policy going for youth from the swathe of talented players in domestic cricket in the ODI and T20 formats. Results since have been encouraging, losing 3-2 to the number one ranked Australians at the end of the Ashes tour and then winning against Pakistan 3-1 at the end of the UAE tour.
Specifically since the beginning of last summer England have four scores of 350+ and one of over 400. England reached 350 twice in their first 645 ODIs. They have reached it 5 times in 15 ODIs since then. In the first game of this series, England’s 399 was their highest ever away ODI score and was the first time 8 different batsmen have hit a six in an ODI innings. The England ODI team has rebuilt quickly, around a much younger core that is likely to be competitive in every series for the foreseeable future.
Port Elizabeth’s ground is within sight of the Ocean and traditionally offers support for swing bowlers, especially with the new ball. They have been four ODI’s at the ground since 2010, against varied opposition (West Indies, Australia, India and Pakistan) and in those games only 13 of the 53 wickets have fallen to spinners. Steyn has a 6 for and Morkel a 4 for opening the bowling in those games In the outright market. There is not as much toss bias as a day-nighter as both teams will be bowling in identical conditions.
England’s bowling attack in the first ODI saw Willey and Topley take the new ball, Jordan at first change, Rashid and Ali for the middle overs and Stokes as the sixth bowler. Bloemfontein produced blameless batting conditions with little help for the quicks, and Ali took 3 of the 5 South African wickets to fall.
A key question for the Port Elizabeth game will be team selection and rotation. There is Broad to come back in, and possibly Woakes too and Jordan the most vulnerable. What I think we know is that David Willey will take the new ball and herein lies the opportunity. Willey knocked over Hashim Amla early in Bloemfontein and bowled 5 overs up top. He would have then bowled another two in the second power-play and then three at the end of the innings.
At Port Elizabeth having the swinging new ball is an advantage. He will usually bowl the rest of his overs at a time when batsmen are attacking and often against tail-enders. He has become one of the England’s key options at the “death” with his ability to vary pace and bowl yorkers.
So far in a fledgling England career that saw him began well in T20s then move into the ODI side he has 19 wickets in 11 50 over games. Hs strike rate (26) and economy (5.5 runs an over) is right up there in this era of high scores and batsmen friendly regulations.
The top England bowler sub-market is as follows:
Broad 3/1
Rashid 7/2
Willey 7/2
Woakes 4/1
Topley 4/1
Ali 9/2
Jordan 5/1
Stokes 6/1
Two of these players will miss out. Narrowing it down, lets exclude the spinners here, ignore Jordan and Woakes as being inconsistent wicket-takers and suggest that Stokes might not bowl ten overs. That leaves us Broad, Topley and Willey. At the prices the presence of Broad in the market and probably the team creates an opportunity to back Willey, bowling at both ends of the innings in conditions that will suit.
6 points David Willey Top England bowler second ODI 7/2 BetVictor or Ladbrokes
One Direction?
Either side of Trials weekend in the run up to the 2016 Cheltenham Festival much attention has been paid to the dominance of the Willie Mullins yard in National Hunt racing. For the upcoming festival, ante post markets have Mullins at 1/11 to be top Cheltenham trainer, and only 7/4 to train more than 10 winners at the festival. Leading Mullins owner Rich Ricci is just 6/4 to have five or more winners. On Thursday, entries for the next declaration stage were announced with for example Mullins having 18 of 64 entries for the Supreme and 22 of 78 entries for the Neptune. This within the context of a 26% decline in entries for all the novice events at this stage compared to 2015.
Even after Djakadam’s fall over trials weekend, Mullins has ten festival favourites, following on from his record performance of eight winners at the 2015 festival:
- MIN - Supreme
- DOUVAN - Arkle Trophy
- FAUGHEEN - Champion Hurdle
- ANNIE POWER - Mares' Hurdle
- BLACK HERCULES - National Hunt Chase
- BELLSHILL - Neptune
- UN DE SCEAUX - Champion Chase
- KILLULTAGH VIC - JLT Novices' Chase
- UP FOR REVIEW - Albert Bartlett
- LIMINI - Mares' Novice Hurdle
- VAUTOUR - Ryanair Chase and the Cheltenham Gold Cup
Whether this is a good or bad thing or even matters has been a subject of much debate. Perhaps there was a similar debate in the eras of Michael Dickinson and Martin Pipe too.
What the sport has currently is a combination of occurrences that have tilted the balance in favour of one yard. Not only does Mullins have the patronage of one of the most passionate and wealthy owners Rich Ricci but as well as Ricci having deep pockets horses like Min have shown the skill of Mullins’ bloodstock agents in acquiring cheaper horses too. In addition Ruby Walsh described recently as 'a great jockey riding great horses' is 4/11 to be Festival top jockey and only 5/4 to ride three or more winners on the Tuesday of the festival alone.
At the same time as the combination of resources and expertise in Mullins yard is producing so many prospects, the Paul Nicholls and Nicky Henderson yards are, by their high standards, in the doldrums so the top end of the sport appears to lack depth of competition. After 30 years at the top, the Henderson yard recently imported tonnes of Wexford sand to create a Mullins-style gallop in a sign that much like Nicholls and Hobbs deriving knowledge from looking at the Pipe yards fitness techniques a generation ago, Mullins is now seen as the benchmark within the training industry.
One of the consequences of this could be seen on the first day of Cheltenham when Min, Douvan, Faugheen and Annie Power/Vroum Vroum Mag race and potentially (after the near miss last year with Annie Power falling at the last when clear) a big swing for punters and bookmakers alike with big bets rolled up if the first few go in as markets expect. Already, the bookie PR accounts on social media are showing pictures of big Mullins accumulators, presumably in the hope of attracting more of the same and then getting one beat on the day.
One of the reasons they might be doing this is that the dominance of the Mullins stable has reportedly had a negative effect on betting turnover for the festival. When leading contenders such as Vautour and Annie Power are still to be confirmed for a particular race 'non-runner, no bet' markets are the only option. Several Mullins favourites are odds-on six weeks before the festival. Backing alternatives at the meeting last year was often costly and it could be similar this time round, and that makes for a very different Cheltenham Festival this year from some others where Championship races gave us 5/1 the field and punting puzzles to solve in addition to those found in the big field handicaps.
All the factors mentioned earlier, from financial resources to talent in the whole operation, have given us a temporary dominance of one team over the championship contests in ante-post markets. As we saw last year though, in a festival which in many races gave us a glimpse of what many expect to see again this year, the victory of Coneygree in the Gold Cup showed there is still scope for a smaller yard to disrupt the seemingly inevitable flow of big prizes back to County Carlow.
Meanwhile, back to this weekend, and Mullins had five of the 14 entries for Saturday's Scilly Isles Novices' Chase at Sandown with Black Hercules, McKinley, Outlander, Pleasant Company and Pont Alexandre to choose his participants from.
Brodders Football Analysis
We hope that you enjoyed all of Brodders analysis and write ups throughout January 2016. In total there were 57 bets at an average of just over 14 points each. They showed a profit of +156.89 points and a +ROI of 19.16%
If you had bet £10 a point throughout January 2016 you would have won £1568.90
Sign up to Brodders match analysis and recommended bets here for £50 a month. You are free to cancel at any time.
|
Euro & other Football by Brodders (monthly) |
£50 Sign Up Here |
Brodders shows a long term proven profit on his Euro and other football selections. If you had bet £10 a point on every recommended bet since 2014 you would be winning £5366.50.
Getting the best price available is very important for all those who take their betting seriously.
Please open an account with all those bookmakers on the page on this link that you do not already have an account with using the links provided.
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
£10 per point on every recommended bet since launch in Feb 2013 would be winning £10,094.80 (as at 6th January 2016)
A £4000 bank (see FAQ re bank-roll requirements) betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £14,094.80 a 352% increase
All bets have an ROI +2.00% and Horse Racing has an ROI +6.20%
There is also a Frequently Asked Questions Section
The Road to Riches: Weekend of 30th-31st January
- Football, FA Cup fourth round weekend, and a Football league programme.
- Racing, national hunt meetings at Doncaster, Cheltenham and Uttoxeter, Lingfield on the all-weather
- Tennis, the final weekend of the Australian Open.
- Golf, European Tour: Commercial Bank Qatar Masters and USPGA Tour: Farmers Insurance Open, Torrey Pines GC in California
Premier League Darts (Feb 4th - May 19th 2016)
Weekly coverage by Nigel Seeley for the 2016 Premier League Darts.
The package costs £50. Sign Up here
Six Nations Rugby Package (6th February - 19th March 2016)
Following a successful Rugby World Cup package (+28.3% ROI) I will be covering the Rugby Six Nations, including an outright preview and each game weekend
The package costs £50. Sign Up here
NFL - Super Bowl XLX (inc the prop bets)
Superbowl 50, Carolina Panthers v Denver Broncos is on February 7th
The package costs £25. Sign up here
(If you subscribed to the playoffs the Super Bowl is included)
This is one of the best situations of the whole year for finding excellent value and bookmaker mistakes.
NFL 2014 Superbowl and Playoffs results: 231 points bet, 31.7 points profit, +13.72% ROI
NFL 2015 Superbowl and Playoffs results: 524 points bet, 49.51 points profit, +9.45% ROI
Free Tip by Neil Channing
I feel like I don't need to spend a lot of time telling you how great 16+ runner handicapsare as the four places make the place marketheavily +EV. Essentially, if you bet a horse at close to the Betfair SP then you'll be losing just a smidge on the win and getting a great deal on the place.
The SkyBet Chase (Doncaster 3.15pm) has sadly dropped to just 15-runners but the sponsors have decided to offer four places anyway and I'm hoping at least one other firm will follow them as a loss-leader which they sometimes do with these big Saturday races.
It is important to point out that with 15-runners and 1/4 1,2,3 I would certainly never bet each-way and only if a few more non-runners left us with 12 would I be tempted by two bets on one animal. Sky Bet may not lay us all but I believe they are keeping with the four places even if the race drops to 14-runners so there is great value there.
On paper the race is very competitive but I threw a bunch (it's OK horses can be described as bunches as they are WILD ANIMALS) out pretty easily. Emma Lavelle has had a terrible time with her stable in the last couple of years and they aren't solid each-way bets right now. La Reve definitely prefers going right-handed, Ziga Boy and Distime are out of the handicap and the former comes from a yard with a ringworm issue going roun. Holywell has a ton of weight and I almost never bet that stable, Le Mercurey is a novice and may not be brilliantly handicapped plus the Nicholls stable are not exactly flying. Buywise always makes a howler or two along the way and Aachen is as old as me.
I've left myself six to work with and most of them are probably Ok bets if you get the four places. If you like a different one from the two I've ended up with please don't let me put you off.
Double Ross stays this trip well, the stable are going Ok and he'll like the ground better than the last time at Aintree. Maybe a bit too much weight but a fair price.
Pass the Hat often has a little break, then a losing hurdles run and then a good chase run. Ran well over hurdles last time and could be interesting here but hasn't won for a long time.
No Planning will like going left handed on a flat track and soft ground. Solid enough but I can't bet them all.
Ikorodu Road is a decent price, likes it round here and at Newbury, another flat left-handed galloping track. Maybe up a bit much in class but a fair price.
I've settled with two and I'm hoping to get the four places. If for some reason I can't I'll bet them both win only.
Dolatulo likes the left handed, stays the trip well and likes the ground. I know the connections fancy him and I don't blame them.
Coologue is a young, promising chaser from a good stable who ran a good 2nd here last time on his first try at the trip. He ought to stay here and he could be really well handicapped.
Since I have been writing Betfred have gone four places here and although I'm not sure what happens with them if we fall to 14-runners I'm going to bet with them as they have the best prices.
I'm having 6 Points each-way Dolatulo at 11/1 1/4 1234 with Betfred (would take 10/1 1,2,3,4 Skybet or 14/1 win only).
I'm having 6 Points each-way Coologue at 10/1 1/4 1234 with Betfred (would take 9/1 1,2,3,4 Skybet or 12/1 win only).
Anglo-French domination of the European Champions Cup Rugby
Late last Sunday afternoon, the final games of the pool stages of this year's European Champions Rugby Cup (ERCC) were reaching a conclusion and frantic calculations were made as to which teams were set to qualify for the quarter-fnals in April. In Southern France, Clermont-Auvergne were heavily odds on to get the victory they needed at home to Bordeaux Begles whilst earlier in the week, in South West England Exeter CHiefs coach Rob Baxter had dismissed his sides chances of progressing from the Pool, so unlikely was the combination of circumstances that made it possible.
However with minutes to go in Clermont, the home side was losing 28-37 and Exeter were beating Ospreys with the latest in a series of scintillating performances from one of the fastest improving teams in the English game. At this point Clermont could ensure qualification for the quarters as one of the three best runners up if they secured a losing bonus point, and lost by less than seven points. Experienced international scrum-half Morgan Parra then inexplicably opted for a tap penalty. Once defended, the opportunity was lost and Clermont were out of the competition.
The quarter-final line up is as follows (seeded 1 to 8 based on group winners and points scored in the pools)
Saracens v Northampton
Wasps v Exeter
Racing92 v Toulon
Leicester v Stade Francais
The winners of the ties at Saracens and Wasps meet in the semi-finals so at least one English side is guaranteed to reach the final in Lyon at the end of the season. Leicester, group winners face a winnable quarter against Stade who they beat at home in the Pool before the daunting prospect of Racing at home or Toulon away in the semi-finals. Toulon lost out on winning the group on tie-breaker to Wasps, a a result of their 32-6 loss in Coventry last October.
With all eight quarter-finalists from England and France it is once again a concern that sides from Ireland (Munster and Leinster in a down phase), Wales (Ospreys came closest), Scotland (Glasgow regressed from their ERCC performances last year) and Italy (teams still uncompetitive) are absent from the knock-out stages reflecting the weaker squads that an imbalance of financial resources within the various Euriopean nations creates.
In terms of odds for the competition from here, markets currently look as follows:
Saracens 9/4
Racing 4/1
Toulon 9/2
Leicester 13/2
Wasps 12/1
Exeter 20/1
Stade 25/1
Northampton 28/1
Saracens, 8 wins from 9 in the Aviva Premiership and with an expensive squad packed with talent would be close to favouritism even if the draw had not broken so kindly for them with Racing and Toulon in the other half. The winners of Wasps/Exeter (a very tough call, but I might shade it to a full strength Exeter ) are the value alternative with the semi-final against Saracens (most likely) to be played on a neutral English ground. Each way terms of one third the odds to reach the final are standard in the current market
In the other half Racing are top of the French Top 14 and at home to the double defending champions Toulon. I would expect the winners of that quarter to reach the final. Whilst the most likely outcome is Saracens v one of the French sides, the draw does make that Exeter (or Wasps) price very tempting. All because of one failed tap penalty in Clermont.
Brodders Football Analysis
All Brodders bets since January 2014 are currently showing a ROI of +1.96% (over 1800 bets) (at 6th Jan 2016)
- Betting £10 a point would be showing a profit of +£4363.90
Make sure that you follow us on Twitter and have your Brodders email alerts ticked here so you don't miss out.
Getting the best price available is very important for all those who take their betting seriously.
Please open an account with all those bookmakers on the page on this link that you do not already have an account with using the links provided.
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
£10 per point on every recommended bet since launch in Feb 2013 would be winning £10,094.80 (as at 6th January 2016)
A £4000 bank (see FAQ re bank-roll requirements) betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £14,094.80 a 352% increase
All bets have an ROI +2.00% and Horse Racing has an ROI +6.20%
There is also a Frequently Asked Questions Section
The Road to Riches: Weekend 23rd-24th January
- Football, the Premier league programme includes Arsenal and Chelsea at the Emirates on Sunday.
Anyone following Brodders football this month betting £10 a point is winning £1916.10 with +ROI of 44.7% FREE for January, see here
A new write up in 'Premier League Over/Under 2.5 Goal Analysis' has been published. Read it here
- NFL After another exciting play-off weekend, this weekend sees the two Conference games to decide who will be in Superbowl 50. Sign up for play-off coverage here
- Racing, national hunt meetngs at Ascot, Haydock and Taunton on the all-weather at Lingfield
- Tennis, the middle weekend of the Australian Open in Melbourne.
- Golf, European Tour: Abu Dhabi HSBC Golf Championship and USPGA Tour: CareerBuilder Challenge in La Quinta, California
- Cricket, the fourth Test match between South Africa and England continues in Pretoria.
- Rugby Union, the final round of European Rugby Champions cup Pool matches
Australian Open Tennis Championships (Jan 18th-31st 2016)
The second week of the Australian Open starts on Monday. Nigel Seeley is covering the first Grand Slam Tennis event of the new year
Last year he showed +ROI 39.9% for this event
The cost of the package is £50, sign up here
Free Tip
This weekend sees the NFC Conference Championship between the top two seeds in the conference, the Arizona Cardinals visiting the Carolina Panthers. The Panthers are three point favourites in a game with a 47.5 total point line. Please see Neil Channing's play-off coverage here for analysis of the major game markets here.
Last weekend we were in with a decent shout of David Johnson first touchdown scorer when Arizona received the ball with a short field. Johnson received the ball in the run and the pass game several times as the Cardinals drove up the field, but didnt receive the scoring play, an excellent catch in the back of the end-zone.
This week I am going to return to the Carolina side of the ball, which has been featured on a couple of occasions in these free tips. In part this is because the Carolina offense is run-based and the major receiving threat is the Tight End Greg Olsen rather than one of the wide receivers. Over the 2015-16 regular season Carolina scored 19 rushing touchdowns, tied for the league's best. Of course what makes that possible is that in addition to running back Jonathan Stewart, quarterback Cam Newton is such a running threat and is used a lot near the goal-line too. Over the season Newton has 10 rushing touchdowns, Stewart 6.
What was notable during the Cardinals win over the Packers was how much the run defense struggled. Over the regular season the Cardinals mranked 6th, allowing 91 yards per game on the ground. Against the Packers the Cardinals allowed 135 yards on 22 carries, or 6.1 yards per attempt. If anything like that happens this weekend, the Panthers run game is in business. They rushed for 142 yards against the strong Seahawks defense and Stewart recorded 19-106 and two touchdowns.
Rather than put up Stewart on his own at 8-1 first touchdown scorer, I think we can't ignore Cam Newton at 10-1. We are getting just under 4-1 the pair backing both to equal stakes, for the favourite at home with a top rushing offense and a possible weakness in the defense.
6 points Jonathan Stewart First touchdown scorer Carolina Panthers v Arizona Cardinals 8-1 SkyBet, Coral, William Hill
6 points Cam Newton First touchdown scorer Carolina Panthers v Arizona Cardinals 10-1 SkyBet, Coral, William Hill
Fantasy Sports and the UK
Daily fantasy sports companies are currently busy rejecting the idea that their rapidly growing industry should be considered gambling in the United States after a controversial year in which their activities have been severely curtailed by state regulators across the US.
FanDuel and DraftKings meanwhile are happy to embrace the “gambling “ label in the United Kingdom as part of a putative global expansion strategy .Late last year our gambling regulators granted a gambling licence to DraftKings in August, while FanDuel also applied for a licence as a "gambling software" company.
This would appear to be a contradiction but DraftKings, maintain that they are simply approaching each country case by case with games of skill looked at differently by regulators around the world.
DraftKings plans to offer its familiar range of NFL, NBA, Major League Baseball and NHL contests in the U.K. but with a special emphasis on European football.
Unlike in the United States, where sports betting is legal only in a handful of states, daily fantasy sports will have to compete with a well-established sports betting industry. In addition the furore in their home markets already forcing a financial retrenchment of sorts by the companies, which may siphon energy and resources from global expansion efforts.
For the UK betting industry it could be that a fantasy/soft sports betting product connects with a hitherto undeveloped set of potential customers who don’t gamble and a simplified version that tapped into social media, a fantasy football style points system and a small stake – big win proposition, could emerge.
An op-ed from iGaming Business took a look at how the UK betting industry could make some headway in daily fantasy sports.
Written by the CEO of a fantasy and sportsbook platform provider the opinion piece (“Unlocking fantasy sports in Europe”) took a look at issues stunting the growth of fantasy sports here. These included
- A new tax law in the U.K.
- Old software being using by sports-books that doesn’t accommodate fantasy sports.
- A reluctance by companies to embrace daily fantasy sports and engage fans..
- Failure to adequately utilise social media.
The biggest current inhibitor is identified as the point of consumption tax which it is argued prevents innovation and creativity as risk-averse operators protect their bottom line
Sports betting websites in the U.K. have been to slow to incorporate a fantasy component into their sites with most being mixtures of legacy software preventing the implementation of any new products such as fantasy.
The question remains as to whether this product can actually succeed in the UK. A live daily fantasy real-time product might hold appeal to customers who are accustomed to watching sport while monitoring statistics and social media on a second screen and millions play games like fantasy Premier League setting line ups on a weekly basis. New entrants (alongside an existing operator like Mondogoal) are required with new technology to open up the daily market but given their issues at home it remains to be seen if the US majors reach our shores.
NFL - Playoffs and Super Bowl XLX (inc the prop bets)
This weekend sees the Cnference games and Superbowl 50 is February 7th - £40 Sign up here
This is one of the best situations of the whole year for finding excellent value and bookmaker mistakes.
NFL 2014 Superbowl and Playoffs results: 231 points bet, 31.7 points profit, +13.72% ROI
NFL 2015 Superbowl and Playoffs results: 524 points bet, 49.51 points profit, +9.45% ROI
Six Nations Rugby Package (6th February - 19th March 2016)
Following a successful Rugby World Cup package (+28.3% ROI) i will be covering the Rugby Six Nations, including an outright preview and each game weekend
The package costs £50. Sign Up here
Get Access to Brodders Football Write-ups For Free
All Brodders bets since January 2014 are currently showing a ROI of +1.96% (over 1800 bets) (at 6th Jan 2016)
- Betting £10 a point would be showing a profit of +£4363.90
Following the Christmas break for many of the European Leagues, Brodders coverage resumed in early January 3rd
You can follow him for free for the whole of January and see how good he is for yourself.
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Make sure that you follow us on Twitter and have your Brodders email alerts ticked here so you don't miss out.
Getting the best price available is very important for all those who take their betting seriously.
Please open an account with all those bookmakers on the page on this link that you do not already have an account with using the links provided.
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
£10 per point on every recommended bet since launch in Feb 2013 would be winning £10,094.80 (as at 6th January 2016)
A £4000 bank (see FAQ re bank-roll requirements) betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £14,094.80 a 352% increase
All bets have an ROI +2.00% and Horse Racing has an ROI +6.20%
There is also a Frequently Asked Questions Section
