Weekly Articles "Road to Riches" by Rich 'Tighty' Prew
The Road to Riches: Weekend of 29th-30th October
Coming Up this weekend
- Football. The Premier League programme includes Tottenham v Leicester on Saturday and Southampton v Chelsea on Sunday. Premier League Statistical Analysis and bets for this weekend can be viewed here
- NFL Week Eight of the NFL regular season, includes the Philadelphia Eagles at the Dallas Cowboys.
- Racing, includes Newmarket and Chelmsford City on the flat and Ascot, Ayr and Wetherby over the jumps
- Golf, the WGC – HSBC Champions in China. On the US Tour the Sanderson Farms Championship in Missisippi
- Tennis, ATP Erste Bank Open in Vienna aned ATP Swiss Indoors in Basle
- Formula One, the Mexican Grand Prix in Mexico City.
- Cricket, England playing Bangladesh in Dhaka in the Second Test.
Free Tip
Oakland Raiders at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Sunday 5pm)
Time to have another go at the NFL touchdown markets. I leave all outrights, points spreads, totals etc to Neil in his weekly subscription column and try to spot some value in the higher variance player markets.
First a quick reminder of the criteria I wrote a few weeks ago
“When looking at First touchdown scorer markets we ideally want to see three things:
a) We are backing a player on the home team
b) We are backing a favoured team
c) There is an element to the offense/defense match up that suggests a mismatch in the relative strengths and weaknesses of the sides.
Just to expand on point a), why would we favour the home team player? Whilst it is not always the case, away teams will frequently defer if winning the toss and allow the home team to get the ball first. For two reasons a) the crowd is at is loudest at the start of the game so it can be difficult to run an offense and b) they then get the ball to start the second half when i) you have first chance to put in place the half time adjustments and ii) the crowd can be at its quietest before everyone gets back to their seats”.
In essence, I think the home team should usually get the ball first, and if it is against a bad defense, you can then “stock pick” a likely player given the strengths/weaknesses of the match ups against that defense. In this match all the criteria apply. We are going to be looking at Tampa Bay players, a home team that is marginally favoured (though the lien has moved towards Oakland) and there are elements of the match up that led me to look at this match in detail in the first place.
Firstly the Raiders. At 5-2, they are tied for first place in the AFC West. The Raiders have the second-best record in the AFC behind only the Patriots and have the second-best record in the NFL. Oakland has been a perennially bad team but bad teams lead to good draft positions and several very good drafts in a row have led to an influx of talent that has made them competitive. Being a poor team in one year also leads to a softer schedule the year after and here Oakland have benefitted this season. Oakland has won three of its five games by a combined 5 points, with wins over the Saints, Titans, Chargers, Ravens and Jaguars who have a combined record of 14-23. That said for a team that had only won 2 of its last 24 away games, four road wins all travelling into the eastern time zone is impressive.
Oakland are a very one sided team, with the offense carrying the team to these wins. The run defense has been the second-worst unit in the league while the pass defense is only slightly better, ranking 28th. Add them together and you get the league's fourth-worst defense -- better than only the Colts, Lions and Saints.
Of particular relevance to this match up, the Raiders have allowed seven 100-yard games to opposing Wide receivers. In the running game their defense is bottom five in yards per carry allowed (5.0) and yards per game allowed (128.3).
Tampa Bay are an inconsistent team but in some ways mirror the path to recovery being undertaken by the Raiders. Years of being in the doldrums, high draft picks and an influx of talent which has primarily had an impact on the offensive side of the ball with Quarterback Jameis Winston and wide receiver Mike Evans, both top ten draft picks in the last three years.
It is Evans that I am particularly interested in here. He leads all Wide Receivers across all NFL teams with 32% of His Team’s Targets so far this season. He has been targeted 75 times through six games this season, and he is on pace for a career-high 200 targets. He is only one target shy of league-leader T.Y. Hilton, despite playing one less game. Evans also leads all wide receivers with 6 touchdowns. The veteran wide receiver who played across from Evans, Vincent Jackson, is on injured reserve, Since Evans came into the league in 2014, he has averaged nearly 13 targets a game with Jackson out and 8 a game with him in. In the passing game, without a good tight end or receiving back (Charles Sims also on injured reserve) and minus Jackson, Evans is the only target in town.
Evans leads the league with 34 “clutch receptions” through seven weeks (ahead of Julio Jones, AJ Green etc), clutch receptions being catches for first downs, in the red zone and for touchdowns. This isn’t surprising. He’s 6-4, got a huge catching radius and is a big mismatch for most defenses, assuming Winston gets him the ball accurately, which in some weeks is quite the assumption unfortunately.
The alternative to the passing game is the running game and here in the absence of the still injured number one running back Doug Martin, Jacquizz Rodgers has 35 & 27 touches through his last two starts. Those 35 touches led to 129 rushing yards against the Panthers two weeks ago and then 27 for 163 against the terrible run defense of the 49ers last weekend. This is certainly another good match up.
I couldn’t put you off having both and backing Rodgers at 8-1 but we're getting a couple of points longer on Evans for a single bet here
7 points Mike Evans First Touchdown Scorer Tampa Bay Buccaneers v Oakland Raiders 10-1 William Hill (there will be a wider range of prices/firms up on Saturday)
The CMA Enquiry into Online Betting
The Competition and Markets Authority is investigating whether online gambling companies are treating their customers fairly. This is potentially a big story for the industry with long term implications for customers and operators. Some have even speculated that were the enquiry to find against the bookmakers, it would be as big as PPI was for the banks with claims companies involved
The launch of this investigation follows concerns raised by the Gambling Commission about potential breaches of consumer law. The CMA has conducted an initial review of complaints information and a number of gambling firms’ promotions and terms and conditions. The investigation is to determine whether the CMA will tackle unfair or misleading behaviour in the industry.
Nisha Arora, the CMA's senior director for consumer enforcement said in a press release:.
"We've heard worrying complaints suggesting people may be lured into signing up for promotions with little chance of winning because of unfair and complex conditions."
The CMA went on to highlight the following areas of concern
- Being locked into complex and strict requirements linked to gaming promotions that are difficult to understand and may be unachievable. These can include terms that require people to play for longer than they had bargained for before they can withdraw money. The CMA is also concerned that players may not be able to withdraw what remains of their deposit, and any winnings, when they want to stop playing.
- Companies having a wide discretion to cancel bets or alter odds after bets have been accepted, because they made a mistake when the odds were first set. The CMA is investigating whether the terms operators rely on in cases such as this are fair.
- Terms restricting players’ ability to challenge a firm’s decision, for example by placing very short time limits on making a complaint or inaccurately suggesting that other means of redress are not available.
Many readers of this column will find these sorts of concerns familiar. The CMA will presumably hear from a lot of bettors about free bet terms, Sign up bonus withdrawal requirements, withdrawal limitations and timeframes and the holy grail of them all, bet restrictions
The CMA has advertised a link on which the betting public can contact them with experience of these sorts od issues. They can be contacted on Gambling@cma.gsi.gov.uk . They request that respondents should state clearly in the subject line of an email whether the information relates to sign-up promotions, altered odds or cancelled bets, or terms that restrict the ability to claim.
Brodders Football Analysis
September was Brodders European football sixth winning month in a row. His ROI for 2016 is +12.25%
If you had bet £10 a point (average bet £150) on all Brodders’ bets this year you would be winning over £15000
Sign up to Brodders match analysis and recommended bets here for £50 a month. You are free to cancel at any time.
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Euro & other Football by Brodders (monthly) |
- The Euros 2016 for subscribers. Results: +£4,098.30 (betting £10 a point, average bet about £150) +ROI 31.43%
- Long term profit over 3 years. Following all bets subscribers are winning £20,216 (£10 a point, average bet £150) +ROI 5.71%
NFL 2016 - regular season
Through week 7 of the regular season and we are showing a profit of over 60 points with an ROI +7.7%
We have discounted the cost for the remaining regular season to £75. Sign up here today so that you can access Week Eight's write up and bets.
Bookmaker reviews and advice
Getting the best price available is very important for all those who take their betting seriously.
Please open an account with all those bookmakers on the page on this link that you do not already have an account with using the links provided.
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
£10 per point on every recommended bet since launch in Feb 2013 would be winning £34,185 (as at 26th October 2016)
All bets have an ROI +4.75% and Horse Racing has a ROI of +6.84%
A £4000 bank (see FAQ re bank-roll requirements) betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £38, 185 an 855% increase
The Road to Riches: Weekend of 22nd-23rd October
Coming Up this weekend
- Football. The Premier League programme includes Chelsea v Manchester United on Sunday. Premier League Statistical Analysis and bets for this weekend can be viewed here
- NFL Week Seven of the NFL regular season includes the New York Giants against the LA Rams at Twickenham.
- Racing, on the flat at Doncaster, Newbury and Chelmsford and over the jumps at Cheltenham and Kelso.
- Golf, on the European Tour the Portugal Masters and on the USPGA Tour the CIMB Classic in Kuala Lumpur.
- Tennis, ATP Opens in Stockholm, Moscow, Antwerp and Valencia.
- Formula One, the US Grand Prix in Austin, Texas.
- Rugby Union, the 2016-17 European Rugby Champions Cup continues with the second round of pool games.
- Cricket, England playing Bangladesh in Chittagong in the first of a two test series.
Free Tip
Castres v Northampton
European Champions Cup Rugby Pool game Saturday 3.15pm (Sky Sports 2)
The European Champions Cup started last weekend. Twenty teams split into five pools, the five pool winners and three best runners up going through to the knock-out stages in the New Year. Saracens, who kicked off last week with a superb win in Toulon in one of the best European games seen in a long while, are firm favourites to defend their title.
One of the tougher pools features, Montpellier, Leinster, Northampton and Castres. This is a competition dominated by the top French and English clubs (13 of the 20 sides) who have financial resources and thus strength and quality of playing resources that many of the Pro 12 sides cannot match. From a Northampton viewpoint, it was tough to not only get two French teams despite the pool seeding but probably the strongest of the Pro 12 sides in Leinster too.
Both Castres and Northampton have had tough starts to the season. Castres are 9th in the top 14 with 3 wins in 8 games. Northampton have 2 wins in 6 Aviva Premiership games (albeit losses to strong sides like Wasps and Saracens are amongst them). Northampton also released their attack coach Alex King last week.
In the first round of Pool matches last weekend Northampton beat Montpellier at home 16-14 with a last kick of the game penalty. Given Montpellier’s resources and physical style with a huge pack this was a creditable win for Northampton. This is especially so given that one of the knocks on Northampton was that they were a bit lightweight up front. Castres meanwhile lost 33-15 in Leinster including the unusual sight of their pack being pushed backwards towards the line and a penalty-try being awarded against them. French sides are known for not “travelling well” and this particular one has a bigger reputation for that than most in that regard and it was strange to see such a half-hearted performance in the first game of a new competition.
All other things being equal Castres are not the side Montpellier are. However all other things are not equal when it comes to many French sides, and here the issue is one of home advantage. Castres are a much bigger threat at home than away from home. They play in a tight 11,000 stadium roared on by partisan supporters and at one stage at their peak (culminating in winning the Top 14 a couple of years ago) they’d won 23 European matches on the spin at home.
However man for man I think Northampton are the better side who should at a minimum get very close to winning here. Northampton have plenty of star power with the likes of George North, Tom Wood and especially Louis Picamoles putting in excellent performances against Montpellier but the really encouraging thing was the shifts put in by less heralded players such as second rows Dickinson and Paterson. Dylan Hartley and Courtney Lawes return to bolster the oine up too. If it gets tight, in Stephen Myler they have one of the most reliable goal-kickers around too. If you watch, look out for Harry Mallinder in the centre too, who could be a really good one.
Something has to give here. Castres have lost their last five games against English opponents. Northampton have only won 3 of their last 18 in France and have lost their last six games across the Channel. The opportunity is in how the game is priced. The market has it Castres 4/7 Northampton 15/8 with pockets of 2/1+ around at smaller firms. Northampton are +5 on the points handicap. I make it far closer than 4/7 15/8 and will be backing the visitors.
10 points Northampton to win at Castres 19/10 Betfair Sportsbook, 15/8 Ladbrokes or Bet Victor
Judge and Jury.
A fortnight ago Durham were relegated to Division Two of Cricket's County Championship, hit with a 48-point deduction for next season and stripped of their Test status following a £3.8m bailout from the ECB. The unprecedented punishment also includes a four point penalty in next year’s T20 Blast and a two-point penalty for the One-Day Cup next year.
Durham had been struggling to meet debts of £7.5m caused by ground developments and staging fees for international cricket coupled with lower than expected revenues from ticket sales (a May test against Sri Lanka starting on a Friday was always going to be a struggle to sell) and risked going out of business during the last summer had it not been for advances on their 2017 central payment from the ECB. Durham agreed to the draconian sanctions in exchange for a financial rescue package in which £2m owed to the governing body is set off and which allows salaries and debts to be managed as the club are restructured under a new board of directors. As part of the agreement Durham have lost the right to host Test cricket at their Riverside Ground until further notice and must operate under a revised salary cap until 2020.
The club have been a hotbed of talent over the past 20 years, with only Yorkshire having produced more than their eight Test cricketers during this time. Despite this on-field success story, the county have struggled to create a viable business in the region, with crowds proving hard to attract for both domestic and international cricket. That they were urged to build an international venue by the ECB, when granted first-class status in 1992, is an irony that has not been lost during the ongoing saga.
The ECB’s role in getting Durhan into trouble in the first place, and then handing out the punishment when their own plan failed has left a bad taste in the mouth. Durham’s ground is in an out of town location, difficult to access and miles away from major conurbations. The sealed bid system of bidding to host test matches in an over-crowded marketplace (over ten competing grounds for sometimes as few as five available home test matches a year) has maximized revenue for the ECB but left little juice for the hosts. Glamorgan and Warwickshire are other counties to have got into trouble as a result of this system. The ECB at least in part is complicit in Durham's fall.
The ECB insists the cricketing punishment handed down falls within its competition and financial regulations, with the chief executive, Tom Harrison, describing it as a “deterrent” to other counties, which is certainly true.
Members of the club are furious and feel that this is a purely political move by the ECB to ram home a point about the precarious financial situation of the county game and to scare all counties into giving them their full backing on the proposed reforms to T20 cricket and the introduction of the controversial new city-based tournament. If Durham keep backing the ECB's new T20 competition, they'll be in line for £1.5 million when that starts.
As it is one of the most successful English counties on the field, home to Ben Stokes, Mark Wood and producer of countless England cricketers faces life in Division Two, hamstrung by a points deduction. This is of course better than having no club at all. Increasingly though in English cricket, we see decisions made in committee rooms transcending events on the field.
Brodders Football Analysis
September was Brodders European football sixth winning month in a row. His ROI for 2016 is +12.25%
Sign up to Brodders match analysis and recommended bets here for £50 a month. You are free to cancel at any time.
|
Euro & other Football by Brodders (monthly) |
- The Euros 2016 for subscribers. Results: +£4,098.30 (betting £10 a point, average bet about £150) +ROI 31.43%
- Long term profit over 3 years. Following all bets subscribers are winning £16,801 (£10 a point, average bet £150) +ROI 5.01%
Bookmaker reviews and advice
Getting the best price available is very important for all those who take their betting seriously.
Please open an account with all those bookmakers on the page on this link that you do not already have an account with using the links provided.
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
£10 per point on every recommended bet since launch in Feb 2013 would be winning £30,462 (as at 20th September 2016)
All bets have an ROI +4.45% and Horse Racing has a ROI of +6.9%
A £4000 bank (see FAQ re bank-roll requirements) betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £34,462 a 761% increase
The Road to Riches Weekend of 15th-16th October
Coming Up this weekend
- Football. The Premier League returns and the programme includes Manchester City v Everton and on Monday Night Football Liverpool v Manchester United. Premier League Statistical Analysis and bets for this weekend can be viewed here
- NFL Week Six of the NFL regular season includes the Dallas Cowboys at the Green Bay Packers and the Atlanta Falcons at the Seattle Seahawks
- Racing, on the flat with Champions Day at Ascot and also meetings at Catterick and Wolverhampton. Over the jumps at Ffos Las, Market Rasen and Stratford.
- Golf, on the European Tour the PGA British Masters at the Grove in Hertfordshire
- Tennis, the ATP Shanghai Masters in China
- Rugby Union, the 2016-17 European Rugby Champions Cup begins with pool games.
Free Tip by Neil Channing
Ascot 4.25 Saturday: Balmoral Handicap (part of Champions Day)
It's no certainty that only high draws can win over the Ascot straight course but during recent meetings it certainly looks at least as though the low numbers are at a slight disadvantage. I'm going to focus on horses that stay at least the 1m trip, as Ascot is a pretty stiff galloping straight mile and who are drawn high in the Balmoral Handicap tomorrow. I shouldn't have to repeat that this 20-runner event offers us great value on the place part of our each-way bets.
Let's go through the ten who are drawn 12 and upwards (there are a couple of stall positions that went to horses that didn't get in the field)...
Afjaan comes from a great stable in form and has a jockey who likes it here but I slightly doubt the stamina.
Here Comes When comes from a stable who is having a good run, the horse is definitely well handicapped and he won't mind a bit of rain but the worry would be that he pulls quite hard so he'll surely be held-up last by a jockey who knows only one way so he may need luck. Fair price though.
Donncha is a horse that really was unlucky in a lot of races when he had bad draws. My worry would be he's had a lot of races this year but he's solid over the trip and won't mind any cut. Generally he is very solid.
Firmament ran into a horse with at least a stone in hand when 2nd over 7f here two weeks ago. This one is very solid and stays, likes the track and goes on all ground. Hard to see him not being in contention.
Zhui Feng is a decent horse but he doesn't look well-handicapped and although he stays well maybe the ground would need to be faster.
Sea Wolf ran his best race to win the Irish Cambridgeshire but it's tough to peak twice in a short time.
Chil the Kite seems to be a bit out of form this year and maybe age is catching up with him.
Third Time Lucky definitely stays and he has a great claiming jockey on board. Very solid place chance.
Bronze Angel is a past winner of this but he might be another who has seen his best times.
Dream Walker has had a good year and we know he'll stay this trip but he is going to have to win from his highest mark ever.
I think Firmament is just so solid that we have to back that plus I also think Third Time Lucky is going to be really hard to kick out of the frame so I'll have to do that too. It may seem crazy to some people to bet four horses in one race but at bigger prices I do like Donncha and Here Comes When so I'm going to bet all four safe in the knowledge that this race offers amazing value on each-way bets.
I'm having 5 Points each-way Donncha at 16/1 1/4 1234 with lots of firms (obviously 18/1 with Betfair Sportsbook or five places 16/1 with Sky Bet is great if you can get that).
I'm having 6 Points each-way Firmament at 8/1 1/4 1234 with lots of firms (Sky Bet 5 places is great if you can get that).
I'm having 6 Points each-way Here Comes When at 25/1 1/4 1234 with a few firms.
I'm having 6 Points each-way Third Time Lucky at 10/1 1/4 1234 with Paddy Power and Betfred (11/1 with Betfair Sportsbook if you're quick).
Any given Sunday?
The NFL promotes parity within the league at every opportunity telling fans that any season could be the one their team makes the playoffs. Close games and competitvie seasons are the ethos on which the NFL sells itself and advertisers are sought by the networks. Through 5 weeks of this season though, there is a worrying sign. Admittedly some bad games have been scheduled, and one went against the first Presidential debate, but through four weeks NFL ratings are down between 11 and 17% compared to last season ranging across Thursday, Sunday and Monday night football
The whole structure of the league is to give struggling teams the chance to turn round quickly. TV deal money is split equally between the 32 franchises and all have to comply with a salary cap for their playing staff. Talent cannot be hoarded with an active free agency system. The annual draft gives the worst teams in one year the first picks of college talent incoming into the league next. The structural barriers present in other sports are done away with, to create as level a playing field as possible.
However there is always a disparity in scouting and coaching performances operating alongside the attempts to even the playing field. At a higher level ownerships make mistakes. If the darts you throw at players and appointing coaches don’t work it can take years to rebuild. Such mistakes overcome any league wide effort to produce parity.
This has been stark in the last few years as Belichek/Patriots and Carroll/Seahawks to name just a couple of coach/team examples produce consistent success. Meanwhile while it's true that there are some new participants in the playoffs each year, at the same time there are a number of perennially bad teams in the league like the Browns, Bears, Dolphins and, more recently, the 49ers. At the other extreme the Patriots, Steelers and Broncos have represented the AFC in nearly 50% of ALL 50 Superbowls and seven of the last ten years.
Taking one example that was in the news recently, Colts general manager Ryan Grigson stated that the Andrew Luck contract (largest in the league, began at the end of his rookie deal this summer) prevented the team recruiting enough talent on defense to make the team competitive, which is nonsense. Grigson has been GM for 5 years and has simply drafted badly. The lack of support for Luck is self-inflicted albeit it is much more difficult to achieve now in free agency because Luck’s contract has to fit within the salary cap restricting scope for splashing out elsewhere..
When you think about most of the bad teams in the NFL, how much confidence do you have that they are close to turning it around?
The Jaguars finally got a win a fortnight ago against the Colts in London, although it wasn't exactly an inspiring victory. At least they can point to a lot of young high drafted players (the product of being bad for so long) and a bad division. What about these other teams?
The Browns play in one of the toughest divisions in football every year and have very little to build around right now, beyond some exciting young receivers and a lot of draft picks. Even so, the new approach of building for the future is at least a process that Browns fans can buy into and a potential path toward future prosperity.
Meanwhile on the West Coast the Chargers had been finding new ways to lose every week. So far this season they have
- Lost a 17 point 4th Quarter lead versus the Chiefs
- Fumbled on their final drive versus the Colts and lost
- Lost a 13 point 4th Quarter lead versus the Saints
- Bad snap on game-tying Field goal versus the Raiders and lost
before finally turning over the Superbowl champions on Thursday night football just when all seemed forlorn.
Elsewhere what inspires a belief that the team has a chance of turning the corner in Chicago and Miami? Jay Cutler? Ryan Tannehill?. The 49ers meanwhile were in the Superbowl in 2013 and with free agency losses, coaching changes, retirements and most importantly of all poor quarterback play have gone from the best roster in the NFL to arguably the worst.
Nothing will improve for some teams until the management of those teams stop making huge mistakes like the Browns appear to have done by passing on rookie quarterback Carson Wentz. Based on how Jared Goff (drafted number one ahead of Wentz at two) performs, whenever he actually performs, the Rams might fit into this category as well.
Then again, maybe the Browns and the 49ers, looking likely to pick in the first few picks of the 2017 NFL draft will get their own Wentz in the draft next year and turn those franchises around. Not just their fans but the NFL, looking at those viewing figures, is counting on it.
Brodders Football Analysis
September was Brodders European football sixth winning month in a row. His ROI for 2016 is +12.25%
Sign up to Brodders match analysis and recommended bets here for £50 a month. You are free to cancel at any time.
|
Euro & other Football by Brodders (monthly) |
- The Euros 2016 for subscribers. Results: +£4,098.30 (betting £10 a point, average bet about £150) +ROI 31.43%
- Long term profit over 3 years. Following all bets subscribers are winning £16,801 (£10 a point, average bet £150) +ROI 5.01%
Bookmaker reviews and advice
Getting the best price available is very important for all those who take their betting seriously.
Please open an account with all those bookmakers on the page on this link that you do not already have an account with using the links provided.
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
£10 per point on every recommended bet since launch in Feb 2013 would be winning £30,462 (as at 20th September 2016)
All bets have an ROI +4.45% and Horse Racing has a ROI of +6.9%
A £4000 bank (see FAQ re bank-roll requirements) betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £34,462 a 761% increase
The Road to Riches Weekend of 8th-9th October
Coming Up this weekend
- Football. The Premier League is on International break. England play Malta on Saturday.
- NFL Week Five of the NFL regular season includes the New York Giants at the Green Bay Packers and the Cincinnati Bengals at the Dallas Cowboys
- Racing, on the flat at Newcastle, Newmarket and York and over the jumps at Chepstow and Hexham.
- Golf, the Alfred Dunhill Links Championship at St Andrews
- Tennis, ATP and WTA China Open in Beijing. ATP Japan Open in Tokyo.
- Formula One, the Japanese Grand Prix
- Rugby Union, the sixth and final round of the 2016 Rugby Championship sees South Africa v New Zealand in Durban and Argentina and Australia meet at Twickenham.
- Cricket, England begin a three match ODI series at the start of their tour of Bangladesh
Free Tip by Neil Channing
The Cesarewitch, Saturday Newmarket 4.10pm
At first glance the Cesarewitch may appear to be so impossible to fathom that it feels like a race to skip but if you did that you'd be making a mistake. Regular readers will appreciate how much value we get, at least on the place part of our each-way bets, when bookmakers offer 1/4 12345 and in this race some are even going 1/4 123456. When you factor in the massive advantage that horses with a low draw have this race is really not that hard at all (it's still hard to find the winner but I'd say it's not that hard to know you've had a good bet which is what we are actually aiming to do). I'll run through the dozen with the lowest draws...
Mistiroc has never been over this trip and probably wouldn't be good enough anyway. Easy to rule out.
Angel Gabrial wouldn't totally shock me. Has been coming down the weights and maybe is just too exposed to win a big handicap but on his day he could win.
The Twisler isn't certain to stay and wants softer ground but even with that is not really good enough and easy to rule out.
The Minch is really unexposed and who knows how good he is but surely he's too inexperienced to win this.
The Cashel Man has let me down big time once this season but I think this horse should improve on his last run now he has blinkers for the 2nd time, we know he stays, he likes it here and the ground will be fine. Looks solid.
Grumeti is a little battler from a stable that does pretty well on the flat. I think this ground will be too fast though.
Oriental Fox was 2nd to Grumeti in this last year but I just think he is old and exposed.
Leah Freyer shows no evidence that she is good enough for this or that she will stay.
Blue Rambler is another young unexposed horse who ought to stay but who probably wants softer ground.
Modem is a good hurdler but getting this trip on the flat is a different matter and the ground will probably be too fast.
Sea of Heaven is better drawn than his stablemate the favourite St Michel and the horse who beat him last recently who I would have liked from a better draw (Sweet Selection). This one is fine on the ground and trip and seems solid.
If I added a 3rd bet it would be Angel Gabrial but I'm going to have two.
I'm having 8 Points each-way Sea of Heaven at 14/1 1/4 12345 with Bet365 (some firms will reveal their place terms and go 5 places later tonight)
I'm having 9 Points each-way The Cashel Man at 14/1 1/4 12345 with Bet365 (would take 12/1 this one happily).
Winter is Coming
With five races to go in the 2016 F1 season, Nico Rosberg now leads Lewis Hamilton by 23 points following Hamilton’s engine failure when almost certain to win in Malaysia last weekend, to continue the mechanical failures that have dogged his attempt to win a fourth driver's championship.
For the casual fan though, it is only the Rosberg/Hamilton battle that has stirred the senses in this season, the last under the current F1 regulations which Mercedes have dominated over the past three years. F1 is in an era of declining viewers and high ticket prices and audiences are down both live and on media. The biggest drama has been off the track as the "what is going to happen to the sport?" question rumbles on.
As it is Mercedes is looking to be a rare team to maintain an advantage through a major rule change when F1's aerodynamic regulations get overhauled this winter. The last two step changes to F1's technical regulations have put an end to periods of dominance for certain teams and brought about new eras in the sport. Big changes to the aerodynamic regulations in 2009 saw 2008's title protagonists Ferrari and McLaren struggle and Brawn GP emerge as champions exploiting a regulation loophole with an innovative double diffuser concept. Once the double diffuser concept was copied by rivals and eventually banned, Red Bull emerged as F1's leading team and win four consecutive titles until the last big regulation change in 2014. At that point Mercedes unlocked the most performance from the current V6 turbo engine regulations and has consistently led the field ever since.
Rivals, and no doubt many fans, are hoping the 2017 rule changes which will see wider cars, wider tyres and revised aerodynamic regulations will produce a change in the pecking order. This might not happen though. Although the chassis regulations are changing dramatically, the engine regulations remain unchanged, meaning Mercedes should retain its power unit advantage. Although Ferrari, Renault and Honda have made modest inroads into the Mercedes engine’s performance advantage through this current season unless Mercedes mis-manages the upcoming shifts on aerodynamics or chassis the likelihood is that they will have the most powerful car again next year
It is hoped that the changes will deliver a more exciting spectacle and make the cars more challenging for drivers. The intention is to reduce lap times by up to five seconds, something that should be easily accomplished in this framework, with lap and pole records likely to tumble at every race.
However there have been concerns that all may not be positive: especially with some fearing that the increase in downforce could hurt overtaking opportunities. Fears of cars still not being able to follow one another (cars overheat and tyres degrade quicker in the dirty air behind the current iteration of F1 cars) should be heeded as it is this that leads to processional races that are so off-putting for the sport as a spectacle. In this era of restricted tyre life a lot of passing is done in the pits. Next year the stint length will still be determined by the tyres. All we'd get is the same as now, just faster, which is no different to a TV audience than it is currently.
Brodders Football Analysis
September was Brodders European football sixth winning month in a row. His ROI for 2016 is +12.25%
Sign up to Brodders match analysis and recommended bets here for £50 a month. You are free to cancel at any time.
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Euro & other Football by Brodders (monthly) |
- The Euros 2016 for subscribers. Results: +£4,098.30 (betting £10 a point, average bet about £150) +ROI 31.43%
- Long term profit over 3 years. Following all bets subscribers are winning £16,801 (£10 a point, average bet £150) +ROI 5.01%
Bookmaker reviews and advice
Getting the best price available is very important for all those who take their betting seriously.
Please open an account with all those bookmakers on the page on this link that you do not already have an account with using the links provided.
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
£10 per point on every recommended bet since launch in Feb 2013 would be winning £30,462 (as at 20th September 2016)
All bets have an ROI +4.45% and Horse Racing has a ROI of +6.9%
A £4000 bank (see FAQ re bank-roll requirements) betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £34,462 a 761% increase
The Road to Riches: Weekend of 1st-2nd October
Coming Up this weekend
- Football. The Premier League programme includes second v first, Tottenham v Manchester City. Premier League Statistical Analysis and bets for this weekend can be viewed here
- NFL Week Four of the NFL regular season includes the Indianapolis Colts v the Jacksonville Jaguars at Wembley stadium.
- Racing, on the flat at Ascot, Newmarket, Redcar and Wolverhampton. Fontwell Park over the jumps
- Golf, the Ryder Cup at Hazletine National in Minnesota
- Tennis, ATPs Shanghai and Chengdu in China and ATP Malaysia
- Formula One, the Malaysian Grand Prix
- Rugby Union, Round 5 of the Rugby Championship South Africa v Australia in Pretoria and Argentina v New Zealand in Buenos Aires
Free Tip: The NFL at Wembley stadium
Indianapolis Colts v Jacksonville Jaguars Sunday 2.30pm BBC2
The first of this year’s three NFL games to be held in the UK takes place on Sunday with an AFC South divisional game between the Jacksonville Jaguars (notionally the home team) and the Indianapolis Colts.
The Colts are 2.5 point favourites in a game with a points expectation of just under 50. I’ll leave thoughts on line and spreads to Neil in his weekly writing. Instead I’ll look at the teams and some background and see if it leads to some thoughts in the touchdown markets.
I said to Neil last week “I feel like I have been backing the Jags to turn round every year since 2011”, a product of often seeing them as big dogs on the spreads and my hopes of them covering often proving illusory. As a franchise they’ve been in the doldrums for several years and this was meant to be the year that fortunes would improve markedly, and the play-offs were widely expected to be on the agenda. So far, that looks wide of the mark as the team has started 0-3.
The Jaguars haven’t had a winning season since 2007 and this is really not how the NFL is meant to work. The whole ethos of the league is to promote parity, with a salary cap and free agency preventing a few teams cornering the market in talent and the worst teams getting the first chance to pick up the best college players in the annual draft.
Indeed the Jags have built their team in a textbook manner and drafts since 2011 have produced high picks at quarterback, offensive line and most recently pass rusher and cornerback, the “big money” positions within NFL rosters. Having players such as Blake Bortles, Dante Fowler and Jalen Ramsey on rookie contracts at these key positions should produce a competitive advantage compared to having them on more expensive second contracts (enabling the team to be an active player in free agency because of salary cap space compared to teams with big bucks tied up on veteran marquee players) but so far the benefit of this has not been seen. This year a large part of this is down to inconsistent performance from Bortles, who looked to have really developed last year when he set franchise records in passing yards (4,428) and touchdowns (35) having been picked third overall in the 2014 draft but so far this year has thrown seven interceptions in three games and lacked accuracy on his throws. As a result coach Gus Bradley (he of the current lowest winning percentage of any active NFL coach with a 12-39 record since his appointment three years ago) is under pressure.
All that said, playing the Colts who won their first game of the year at home to the Chargers last weekend, represents a decent opportunity for the Jaguars to notch up a result. This is in large part due to the Colts’ deficiencies on the defensive side of the ball where weaknesses are seen on a weekly basis notably at linebacker. Big picture, the Colts have under-invested in the draft on defense and this shows up regularly. So far this season on the small three game sample, the Colts have allowed 95 points and over 400 yards a game to their opponents, ranking in the bottom third of the league.
In terms of first touchdown scorer markets this is a tough game to narrow down the options. The Colts have (even with Donte Moncrieff injured) a lot of big player receivers and a quarterback in Andrew Luck who can make any throw. The Jaguars have four legitimate play-makers on offense too in Robinson, Hurns, Yeldon and Thomas. This helps explain why this is expected to be a 50+ point game.
The angle I prefer is the anytime touchdown scorer market. The Jaguars main Tight End is big money free agency signing Julius Thomas who came across from the Broncos at the beginning of last season after two seasons in which he snagged 24 touchdowns. Almost inevitably (this is the Jags) it hasn’t been the same in Florida but he recovered from an early season injury to score five touchdowns last year. He’s not a flashy route runner but he is a big threat in the red zone (a big man with great hands) and so far this year had 135 yards receiving and a touchdown in the first two weeks of the season before laying an egg in the third game at home to Baltimore last weekend with 2 of 5 for 12 yards, a game in which he injured his elbow.
Thomas didn't practice in the first part of this week and appeared as "questionable" on the injury report, practiced with an elbow in a brace on Friday and is described as a "game time decision" to play this game.
Ordinarily this is the sort of match up that should suit Thomas but instead this may be an opportunity for the second tight end Marcedes Lewis who in recent years has been used primarily as a blocker, having been supplanted as the primary receiving tight end on Thomas’ arrival. In 2010 Lewis had a stand out season with 10 receiving touchdowns, something he hasn’t repeated since not helped by two injury hit seasons that led to the recruitment of Thomas.
So far this season in his secondary role Lewis has one touchdown and seven receptions. Amongst all Tight Ends in the league he is actually top of the charts in (its the NFL, there's a stat for everything...) "yards gained per route run" which tends to suggest he's under-used in the passing game.
The Thomas injury and the weaknesses in the Colts linebacking corps gives a match-up to contemplate here for Lewis.
7 points Marcedes Lewis Anytime touchdown scorer 100/30 Betfred (3/1 Bet365)
(note more anytime prices will be up Saturday, typically)
Ryder on the storm
With eight defeats in the last ten Ryder Cups, the US team are 8/13 favourites to win the 41st renewal of the event at Hazeltine in Minnesota starting today and Neil Channing has written about the event from a betting perspective, free to view, here
It is an important Ryder Cup for several of its major stakeholders. NBC’s ratings fell markedly at Gleneagles in 2014. Viewing figures for the Sunday singles, a session in which Tom Watson’s players dramatically under-performed amidst Phil Mickelson-led back-biting, were the lowest since the network began covering the Ryder Cup in 1991.
Americans switched off from the Ryder Cup because they saw diminishing evidence of a rivalry and in many US Sports administrators govern the sports so as viewers can expect parity and much of the ethos of sports broadcasting is that any team can beat any other. With eight wins in ten events since 1995, NBC has struggled to market this Ryder Cup as an even confrontation.
It was the same in reverse a generation ago in 1977 when a 10th successive US triumph prompted Jack Nicklaus to suggest that the continental Europeans be invited to the competition the golf writer Peter Dobereiner wrote that “in America, the Ryder Cup now rates somewhere between Tennessee frog-jumping and the Alabama Melon Pip-Spitting Championship”.
Increasingly, golf’s showpiece team event finds itself in a fight for the exposure it was once guaranteed on the US sports calendar, competing with the conclusion to the baseball season and the new NFL season. A narrative of disappointment, especially for captain Love who could be only the second leader of a US side to lose twice, risks hastening the Ryder Cup’s slide towards irrelevance in its most significant market.
My ears pricked up when I heard Davis Love make the claim that his US Ryder Cup side “is the best golf team, maybe, ever assembled”. The 1981 Ryder Cup team that beat Europe 18½-9½ is regarded as the best in history, featuring Jack Nicklaus, Tom Watson, Lee Trevino, Ray Floyd, Hale Irwin and Johnny Miller. Only one of the 12 players never won a major. In contrast, only five of Love’s side has won majors, the same as the European side.
The Europe team, notwithstanding its six rookies, actually has more representatives in the world’s top 12 at the moment than the hosts. What Love will have to do to enable his team to justify his claim is fashion a team that plays for each other and not just for themselves as individuals. Successive US teams have been affected by lack of team spirit and factions within the camp.
At the time of writing, with the USA 4-0 up after the first morning foursomews, so far so good for the USA.
Brodders Football Analysis
Sign up to Brodders match analysis and recommended bets here for £50 a month. You are free to cancel at any time.
|
Euro & other Football by Brodders (monthly) |
- The Euros 2016 for subscribers. Results: +£4,098.30 (betting £10 a point, average bet about £150) +ROI 31.43%
- Long term profit over 3 years. Following all bets subscribers are winning £16,801 (£10 a point, average bet £150) +ROI 5.01%
Bookmaker reviews and advice
Getting the best price available is very important for all those who take their betting seriously.
Please open an account with all those bookmakers on the page on this link that you do not already have an account with using the links provided.
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
£10 per point on every recommended bet since launch in Feb 2013 would be winning £30,462 (as at 20th September 2016)
All bets have an ROI +4.45% and Horse Racing has a ROI of +6.9%
A £4000 bank (see FAQ re bank-roll requirements) betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £34,462 a 761% increase
