Coming up this weekend

- Football, a Premier League and Football League programme including first versus second in the Premier League, Arsenal v Chelsea on Sunday.

- Racing, the bet365 Gold Cup, set to be AP McCoy's last race,is the highlight of the Sandown card (see tip below). Also flat meetings at Doncaster, Ripon, Haydock, Leicester and Wolverhampton

- Snooker, the middle weekend of the World Championship at the Crucible, Sheffield with second round matches ongoing.

- Tennis, the new clay court season continues with the conclusion of the ATP Barcelona Open

- Golf, USPGA Tour: the Zurich Classic of New Orleans, TPC Louisiana and European Tour's Volvo China Open in Shanghai.

- Cricket, the conclusion of the second West Indies/England test in Grenada and ongoing IPL Group matches

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Free Tip of the Week   

Today, Neil Channing looks at the Bet365 Gold Cup at Sandown on Saturday afternoon

"You have to love the Bet365 although I'm still someone who loves it as the Whitbread. It is always a very competitive race but it pays at least four places and you can rule a few out pretty easily. I'm not rushing to back any of the horses that ran well at Aintree n this race, the tracks are completely different, I think people underestimate how undulating and testing Sandown is. It's also really hard for a trainer to campaign a horse with the Grand National as the aim and then to have a totally different aim just a few weeks after. These marathon races do take a lot out of the horses and I would rather have a horse that has been targeted at this.

In all horse racing I would say the ground and the ability of each horse to act on it is possibly the most important factor. I think there are a bunch of horses in this one that have all their form on soft ground and would really prefer some give.

One horse who has lots of soft ground form is Le Reve trained by Lucy Wadham, who has always said this one will be better on something a bit faster. The stable have had a good season and she's given the horse a break with the aim of bringing it here for this race as Le Reve is way better going right handed which is why Cheltenham and Aintree were never on the cards. The horse has never been over this long distance before but at Kempton he was staying on well and it shouldn't be a problem.

 

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Betting on your favourite team is difficult, because it skews perceptions. Studies have shown that objectivity in betting declines when the event evokes a clear emotional representation of an outcome. In the same way bettors also struggle to judge how likely it is that rare events happen and to price them up. Bets are not measured by their possible EV, as much as on sentiment and intuition.

One study in 1999 by Fox and Tversky asked US basketball fans of play-off teams to assess the individual chances of  their teams in the final eight in the NBA Playoffs. As the focus was upon assessing the chances of just one team at a time, the aggregated probability for the outcomes was significantly over-weighted at 240% for the eight. When asked to just assess the chances of a winner from the Eastern Conference or the Western Conference probabilities were very close to 100%

A betting coup by two punters in 1991, who became known as the "Hole In One Gang" illustrates how the inability to visualise a rare event leads to underweighting of probability.

The pair, after analysing statistics, calculated that the odds of a hole-in-one occurring at a European Golf Tour event were roughly 11/8. They toured the country targeting independent bookmakers and requesting odds for a hole-in-one being recorded at televised golf tournaments. These small operations, lacking statistics and detailed knowledge but aware that hole in ones were very unusual, simply relied on an intuitive judgement and quotes ranged from 3/1 up to 100/1. It was a perfect example of underweighting a rare event.

One of the golden rules of gambling is that any bet should be assessed in terms of Expected Value  Unfortunately, bettors tend to assign weightings to bet options based on a) what they would like to happen because of the result they want and/or b) how they feel intuitively about the probabilities, which can prove very costly.

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Politics: The General Election

Coverage from Richard Prew and Neil Channing on the 2015 General Election markets. They are FREE to read for registered users and can be found HERE. This week, Individual Constituency markets

After a 16-1 winner, Nicola Sturgeon, in the first Leaders debate market current analysis includes:

- the "Most Seats" Market

- Party seats markets

- the "Next Government" Market

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French Tennis Open (Roland Garros) (19th May-7th June 2015)- by Nigel Seeley

All tennis covered since our launch in Feruary 2013 shows a +9.96% ROI and a £1158 profit at £10 a point

French Tennis Open (Roland Garros) (19th May - 7th June 2015)

£50 Sign Up Here

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Premier League Darts (5th Feb-21st May 2015)

We are into the second half of this year's Premier League Darts.

Nigel Seeley is providing weekly updates on all the matches.

---

Sign up to Brodders' tips:

All Brodders bets since inception are currently showing a ROI of +5.63%  (at 17th March 2015)

Betting £10 a point would be showing a profit of +£5966.70

Subscription to Brodders' write ups, analysis and bets is £50 a month. You can join at any time

Subscribe here

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Premier League 2014/15

Premier League Statistical Analysis 25th-26th April 2015 - write up for the weekend has been published here

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Bookmaker reviews and advice

Getting the best price available is very important for all those who take their betting seriously.

Please open an account with all those bookmakers on the page on this link that you do not already have an account with using the links provided.

 There are literally hundreds of pounds on offer from bookmakers just for signing up through Bettingemporium.com

---

Betting Emporium results

The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS

£10 per point on every recommended bet since launch in Feb 2013 would be winning £12,777.60 (as at 17-3-15)

All bets have an ROI +4.55% and Horse Racing has an ROI +14.95%

There is also a Frequently Asked Questions Section

Coming up this weekend

- Football, a Premier League and Football League programme together with the FA Cup Semi-Finals at Wembley.

- Racing, the Scottish Grand National at Ayr (see tip below) and flat meetings at Newbury, Nottingham, Thirsk and Wolverhampton

- Formula One, The Bahrain Grand Prix

- Tennis, the ATP Monte-Carlo Rolex Masters in Monte-Carlo concludes this weekend

- Golf, USPGA Tour: RBC Heritage at Hilton Head Island, South Carolina and European Tour: Shenzhen International in Shenzhen, China.

- Cricket, the second Test Match of England's Caribbean tour begins in Grenada on Tuesday.

- Rugby Union, the European Challenge cup semi-finals with Clermont-Avergne playing Saracens and Toulon against Leinster

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Free Tip of the Week   

This week Neil Channing looks at the Scottish Grand National at Ayr (3.45pm) tomorrow

" I suggested a few bets in last week's Grand National to our subscribers but we didn't manage to get even one in the frame this year. The most frustrating one was Al Co who I thought was really well handicapped but who only made it to the 1st fence where he came down. It must have been even more frustrating for trainer Peter Bowen who had targeted the National all year and who must have been looking forward to a big run.

 One of the reasons I liked the horse so much was the fact that he won the Scottish National last year carrying just 5lbs less than he'll carry in the race this year. Another reason was that the stable always comes into form at this time of year. It may turn out to be a good thing for us. The horse galloped away loose for a while but didn't seem to exert himself too much and in this race we know he handles the track and the fences as he won easily enough last year. We also get Sean Bowen riding, which wasn't possible last week and his 3lbs claim is like stealing and more or less cancels out the extra weight.

 A few firms offer 5 places which is way better in this 30-runner race than it was in the 39-runner National last week. I think the 14/1 is very fair value and I'd take 12/1 if it gets Pricewised which I think it may do.

 I'm having 10 Points each-way Al Co at 14/1 1/4 12345 with Bet365 and Betfair Sportsbook."

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A look back at the Grand National

AP McCoy's last Grand National, riding Shutthefrontdoor, with him promising to retire on the spot if he won was a major story surrounding last weekend's race. Expectations were for a flood of sentimental money from the general public, with talk in some quarters of the horse going off at 4-1 for the 39 runner race.

At lunchtime Shutthefrontdoor began to shorten from 9-1 and by 3.15pm, an hour before the race, prices shortened across the board, at one stage Hills, Coral, Ladbrokes and Betfred took their prices down to 6-1 whilst a) some firms held at 8-1 and b) the horse was weak on Betfair, backable at 10.0+

This was against a backdrop where the three of the firms mentioned above (on the day of the year where their potential acquisition of customers is greatest) only offered four places each-way in their shops compared to five places online. Maybe this tells us that new shop punters don't return, so there was no need to incentivise to attract them. 

In the hour before the Grand National the 6-1 didn't hold and by 3.45pm it was 8-1 across the board and Rocky Creek briefly went favourite. There was no sign of an avalanche of money depressing the price, though Coral did say in the evening after the race that Shutthefrontdoor was the biggest loser in their book

After 4pm, with the race approaching it was still 8/1. Unsurprisnigly with a parade and 39 runners the race was late off. In the final minute before the race prices fell two whole points to 6/1, whilst drifting to 14.5 on BF, which was you could get on the off. The collapse in the price occurred without any corresponding move out in the rest of the field such that the race book went off with an over-round of 165%

It is fair to say that the Grand National is never a great "value" betting race. Witness the over-rounds in recent years:

2008 147%

2009 146%

2010 155%

2011 155%

2012 152%

2013 148%.

165% represented the highest figure in any year as far back as 2003.

My understanding is that if the shops want to shorten a horse (hedging part of an exposure, say) then their course reps can do so in hard cash on the rails. Here, why not just press the blue button on betfair at double figures?

Ladbrokes said after a recent national that 40% of their shop punters took the starting price. In 2010 the method of calculating Starting prices was change. SPs were determined by SP agents taking a sample of bookmakers' prices, and taking the lowest price among the best third available "to good money" at the off. Now the SP is the lowest price among the top 50 per cent.

This year the very late move in the SP clearly went beyond hedging (which at a late stage would hedge only a fraction of exposures for the big firms anyway) and into something far more questionable. The punters most affected,  the once a year customers in the shops were

a) likely to be on Shutthefrontdoor

b) at some firms limited to four places anyway

c) least likely to realise that the SP fell two points in the last seconds before the race

d) in some cases still don't realise

e) and even some who do probably don't care

The SP system before the Grand National displayed the characteristics of a cartel price-fixing. It's not an open market as it should be and it is done to pay less winnings to punters. The SP system doesn't work as well as it once did because the on-course markets are now so weak.

To add insult to injury of a starting price system that here failed them, for those shop punters offered 4 places, Shutthefrontdoor finished 5th. At least we can't blame the bookmakers for that!

 

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Politics: The General Election

Coverage from Richard Prew and Neil Channing on the 2015 General Election markets. They are FREE to read for registered users and can be found HERE

After a 16-1 winner, Nicola Sturgeon, in the first Leaders debate market current analysis includes:

- the "Most Seats" Market

- Party seats markets

- the "Next Government" Market

Next week: Individual Constituency markets

---

Premier League Darts (5th Feb-21st May 2015)

We are into the second half of this year's Premier League Darts.

Nigel Seeley is providing weekly updates on all the matches.

---

Sign up to Brodders' tips:

All Brodders bets since inception are currently showing a ROI of +5.63%  (at 17th March 2015)

Betting £10 a point would be showing a profit of +£5966.70

Subscription to Brodders' write ups, analysis and bets is £50 a month. You can join at any time

Subscribe here

---

Premier League 2014/15

Premier League Statistical Analysis 18th-19th April 2015 - write up for the weekend has been published here

---

Bookmaker reviews and advice

Getting the best price available is very important for all those who take their betting seriously.

Please open an account with all those bookmakers on the page on this link that you do not already have an account with using the links provided.

 There are literally hundreds of pounds on offer from bookmakers just for signing up through Bettingemporium.com

---

Betting Emporium results

The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS

£10 per point on every recommended bet since launch in Feb 2013 would be winning £12,777.60 (as at 17-3-15)

All bets have an ROI +4.55% and Horse Racing has an ROI +14.95%

There is also a Frequently Asked Questions Section

Coming up this weekend

- Football, a full Premier League (including the Manchester Derby) and Football League programme

- Racing, The Grand National at Aintree the highlight of a schedule that includes Chepstow (NH) and flat meetings at Lingfield, Wolverhampton and Newcastle

- Golf, The final two rounds of the US Masters at Augusta

- Formula One, The Chinese Grand Prix in Shanghai

- Tennis, the ATP Monte-Carlo Rolex Masters begins on Sunday in Monaco.

- Cricket, the start of the County Championship and the English domestic season

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Free Tip of the Week   

This weekend sees the China Grand Prix in Shanghai, a fortnight after Vettel beat both Mercedes to the win in Malaysia, the first time Mercedes had been beaten in a straight fight since the advent of F1’s turbo regulations at the start of 2014. Whilst this column had a winner that weekend with Vettel in the "without Mercedes" market at 6/4, the win over the Mercedes at 16/1 was a major surprise as even though it was clear Ferrari were closing the pace gap to Mercedes everyone under-estimated the Ferrari’s ability to look after their tyres in the heat which meant they were able to make two stops compared to Mercedes’ three and win on strategy as well as pace.

The effect of Vettel's victory has been to change the shape of the betting markets for China. From 16/1 to win last time out, Vettel is now 7/1 and in the without Mercedes market in from 6/4 to 4/7.

Shanghai has one of the longest straights of the season, with long sweeping corners mixed in with tight corners meaning the circuit is "front limited", the opposite of Malaysia. Air temperatures are set to be over 10 degrees colder in Shanghai than was the case at Sepang too. A cooler track which takes less energy out of the tyres points to Mercedes in the ascendancy again.

Ferrari technical director James Allison is also not convinced his team will be able to repeat its Malaysian Grand Prix performance this weekend. After Malaysia, no doubt wanting to temper expectations, he spoke about the differences between the two races and what it meant for his cars and concluded

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England's Long cricket Summer

The last time England toured the West Indies in 2009, Peter Moores was coach, England were in a Kevin Pietersen crisis but the prevailing sentiment was that the team was only playing the West Indies and an easy win was likely. The captain and coach were both sacked just before the series and England lost the series. That summer England went on to beat the West Indies in the return series at home, clung onto a draw in the first Ashes test in Cardiff and went on to win the Ashes.

This year, you'll get long odds on a repeat. England begin a Caribbean test series with a Alistair Cook and Peter Moores under intense pressure. Paul Downton is no longer Managing Director of England Cricket as of this week, too. Change is once more in the air. However, where in 2009 there was a five-Test tour and then the return series to bed-in a new management team here this time there is no such luxury. England face a hugely tough schedule of 17 tests in the next year: West Indies (a), New Zealand (h), Australia (h), South Africa (a) and Pakistan (a). Even the most optimistic will only see two potential series victories there.

England should win in the West Indies. The Test team is more competitive than their ODI team and the West Indies are both inexperienced particularly in the bowling ranks and disunited, at odds with their administrators and with various players such as Chris Gayle, Dwayne Bravo and Sunil Narine missing at the IPL.

New Zealand are difficult opponents. Their recent form is that they have won four of their last five Tests and have reached the World Cup Final as well. In early season English conditions it won't be easy against Boult, Southee and co 

You'd be a brave person not to expect Australia to win the Ashes convincingly, as a side near its peak and with huge depth in their squad. Steve Smith has become one of the best batsmen in the world, for example and the only concern will be who to leave out from an array of fast bowlers. As it is Johnson, Starc, Harris, Hazlewood and others should have a huge summer.

As for England's possible selections, the cupboard looks a lot barer than the sides they meet this summer. They still have a solid new ball attack in Broad and Anderson but both are getting close to the end of their careers and one wonders what the upcoming schedule means for their longevity. Broad in particular has struggled for form all winter, too. Pacemen such as Liam Plunkett, Chris Jordan and Chris Woakes show intermittent promise, but all three need a big series soon to break through. None look like forming an attack remotely in the class of New Zealand or Australia's. Beyond them bowlers such as Tymal Mills, Steve Finn, Boyd Rankin and Ajmal Shazad are now out of contention. The same for spinners such as Monty Panesar, Danny Briggs, Simon Kerrigan and Scott Borthwick. England have rolled the dice in Caribbean selection with Mark Wood and Adil Rashid.

In the batting line up Cook needs runs. Since 2013 in Test cricket he has 899 runs in 17 matches at an average of under 30, and no centuries. The returning Jonathan Trott is likely to open with him in the Caribbean after a successful A Tour, with Ashley Lyth of Yorkshire waiting in the wings. Gary Ballance was a huge success at No 3 in Test cricket last summer, then had a poor World Cup. After that is a strength of the side with Bell and Root who should both score heavily in the Caribbean and there is the foundation of a batting line up in place for some time to come. 

Ben Stokes is likely to be the first choice all-rounder and has much to prove. Since scoring 120 in Perth on the last Ashes tour, he has made 316 runs in 24 innings in all formats for England, at an average of just 14.4, including a sequence of 0, 5, 5, 4, 0, 4, 0, 0, 0, 23 & 2. Despite some sporadic fiery bowling performances, he has a total of just 4 wickets in his last 12 ODIs and T20s, although 4 Tests have brought 17 wickets.

If England lose in the Caribbean, it is hard to see how Alistair Cook could continue as captain and possibly even remain in the side, barring a huge series for him with the bat. Even with a win there, the Summer could be very tough indeed. A less conservative team would cast Cook and Broad loose now and cut their losses, rather than risk Cook going after bad results either in the Caribbean, or after the New Zealand series, which would give a new captain an almost impossible task to turn fortunes around against Australia.

A comfortable 2-0 or 3-0 win in the Caribbean, followed by the heavy defeat of New Zealand and a close Ashes series, with the captain in prime form, seems too preposterous to contemplate right now. The likely reality is a win in the Caribbean, which they are rightly odds-on to achieve, then further changes at the latest at the end of the summer.

 

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This week on Betting Emporium: Aintree Grand National Saturday 11th April 2015

Aintree Grand National Saturday 11th April 2015 £50 Sign Up Here

Aintree Grand National Festival Bookmaker Offers - FREE MONEY - See HERE

There are a number of bookmakers who withdraw offers during the Grand National. We have put together a few of the best remaining offers available to make things easy for you. Do not leave opening accounts until Saturday as some offers are only available for accounts opened before then.

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This on Betting Emporium: The Masters

The Masters, Augusta (April 9th-12th 2015) is being covered on Betting Emporium by Neil Channing HERE

It is free to all registered users

---

Premier League Darts (5th Feb-21st May 2015)

We are into the second half of this year's Premier League Darts.

Nigel Seeley is providing weekly updates on all the matches.

---

Sign up to Brodders' tips:

All Brodders bets since inception are currently showing a ROI of +5.63%  (at 17th March 2015)

Betting £10 a point would be showing a profit of +£5966.70

Subscription to Brodders' write ups, analysis and bets is £50 a month. You can join at any time

Subscribe here

---

Premier League 2014/15

Premier League Statistical Analysis 11th-12 April 2015 - write up for the weekend has been published here

---

Bookmaker reviews and advice

Getting the best price available is very important for all those who take their betting seriously.

Please open an account with all those bookmakers on the page on this link that you do not already have an account with using the links provided.

 There are literally hundreds of pounds on offer from bookmakers just for signing up through Bettingemporium.com

---

Betting Emporium results

The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS

£10 per point on every recommended bet since launch in Feb 2013 would be winning £12,777.60 (as at 17-3-15)

All bets have an ROI +4.55% and Horse Racing has an ROI +14.95%

There is also a Frequently Asked Questions Section

Coming up this weekend

- Football,  A full Premier League schedule and a double football league programme over Easter weekend.

- Rugby Union, the Quarter finals of the European Rugby Champions Cup.

- Racing, On Saturday Kempton on the flat and national hunt meetings at Haydock, Newton Abbot and Carlisle. Seven meetings on Easter Monday.

- Tennis, the conclusions of the ATP and WTP Miami Opens in Florida and the start of the ATP US Mens Clay Court Championship in Houston.

- Golf, USPGA Tour: Shell Houston Open, the final tournament before the US Masters next week.

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Free Tips of the Week   

The 2015 Major League Baseball season starts on Sunday with the first of 162 games per team, and whilst we would normally try to do short-term tips for this column, the ante-post markets for the MLB throw up opportunities. For more details on the structral changes taking place in the MLB, and why that is producing pricing inefficiences, please see the article below this.

In the American League Central division the Chicago White Sox have been rebuilding for several years, and last year their payroll fell to 18th highest in the MLB despite being in one of the league's biggest markets, as they ditched expensive contracts and veteran players from their last strong team departed the club. This gave them the firepower to recruit heavily this off-season and complete their rebuilding process.

Already the team had a top pitcher in Chris Sale, and they recruited All-Star Jeff Samardzija from the A's. Add Jose Quintana and sooner or later top draft pick Carlos Rodon and you have 4 of the 5 man rotation there and ready, and looking extremely promising. The Samardzjia trade was described as follows

"a deal that would send Jeff Samardzija to the South Side -- a trade that would solve Chicago's starting rotation problem, shake up the AL Central and set in motion one of the most impressive offseason makeovers of recent winters."

The rebuilding did not stop with the starting rotation. They re-tooled their bullpen with relievers and closers, notably David Robertson who closed for the Yankees last season and they recruited in infield and outfield, notably via Melky Cabrera for left field

"No team, though, has improved itself more since the end of last season than the White Sox. Having added a top of the rotation starter in his prime (Samardzija), an elite closer (Robertson), an underrated lefty reliever (Zach Duke), an All-Star outfielder (Cabrera), and a grizzled slugger who’s a perfect fit for their ballpark (Adam LaRoche), the White Sox are positioned for a run in 2015, and for the foreseeable future. Asked what AL team has upgraded its roster the most, a rival AL executive said, “I think the White Sox. And in that division, where the Tigers may be taking a step back a little, there’s an opportunity.”

The White Sox finished 18 games behind in the AL Central division last season with a 73-89 record but adding these new pieces to a roster including last year's rookie of the year Jose Abreu they should be right up there this time, hitting deeper through the order, with pitching depth and better defense.

Little of this is factored into prices. Part of this will be their division, which features the powerful Detroit Tigers and the fancied Cleveland Indians as well as the Kansas City Royals who made the World Series last year . Part of this is scepticism that any team will go from 70-75 wins one year to the 85-90 wins required for a division or a wild card.

Vegas currently forecasts the White Sox for 82 wins this season but this is a very congested pack. 19 of the 30 MLB teams are projected to finish with 80-87.5 wins and no American League team is forecast over the top end of this range. Taking last year: The Giants and Royals, wild-card teams both, won just 88 and 89 regular-season games, respectively, but reached the championship round, while all six 90 game-winners watched from home. They key is to getting into the high 80s, getting to the play-offs and then getting hot at the right time.

Of course there are risks, this is a six month ante-post bet. The main one for the roster is depth, if key players are injured but that is a risk for any MLB team. We are being offered prices to compenasate though:

5 points win Chicago White Sox to win the American League 14-1 BetVictor

3 points e/w Chicago White Sox to win the World Series 33-1 (each way 1/2 the odds 1,2) BetVictor

 

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The 2015 MLB

There are 30 MLB teams split into six divisions, three in the National League and three in the American League. Tere is a 162 game regular season from April until September. Five teams from each league then contest the play-offs, the winners of the two leagues playing in the World Series in October.

To a large extent, all the major US sports are structured to provide competitive balance. This is especially the case in the NFL which has a salary cap and extensive free agency, and a team can go from bottom to top in a short time if it manages and recruits well including the draft.

The MLB has no salary cap, has free agency but also it is unusual to draft a player and see him straight into the majors. Draft picks can spend a long time in the minor leagues particularly if drafted from high school at 18. In addition the MLB has local TV deals on top of the national contracts. If you are in a big market such as New York, LA or Chicago for example regional sports networks can pay a fortune for the TV rights. The Los Angeles Dodgers inked the second largest deal worth $8.35 billion over 25 years with Time Warner Cable last year, to give one instance. If you are in one of the MLB's smaller market cities your deal will be far smaller. The difference this provides to spending power, and much of the money was spent on acquiring free agents, has been marked and of all the US Sports baseball has most resembled "haves" and "havenots" in terms of success and acquiring talent

On Opening day 2014 the LA Dodgers had a payroll of over $235m and a record sixteen teams exceeded $100m.. At the other end of the scale two teams, Houston and Miami, had sub $50m payrolls. Historically been quite unusual for a side to go from bottom to top very quickly: there have been barriers to doing so in acquiring talent, paying it and getting it on the field quickly.

However, competitive balance is key in US Sports and successive MLB commissioners have introduced a number of measures to level the playing field including a luxury tax (penalties for over spending via payroll) and penalties for under-spending. This has had the effect of meaning payrolls across the league are equalising, and so the English premier league effect of it being impossible to beat the richest teams over a season is being reduced

So the high rollers aren’t outspending the second-tier teams to the degree they once did. Nor are the penny-pinchers falling as far behind. The teams at the bottom of the new 2015 payroll rankings are much closer to $100 million than $0, which wasn’t true two years ago. It’s not just the fear of financial penalties that has forced the big and small spenders toward the centre of the payroll range. The local TV contracts have enabled some teams to extend their young players instead of watching them walk and the traditional underdog teams now contain young players who can’t easily be bought.

Some teams are still smarter and more efficient than others, you still have to manage well off the field, and coach well on it but levelling the financial playing field is reducing the variation between teams.

Four teams in last year's payroll bottom six made the playoffs last year. Only three teams in the top six did. The Kansas City Royals made the World Series on a sub $100m payroll. In an era of increasing competitive balance, being a big club in the league doesn’t grant the power to dominate that it once did.

Former commissioner Bud Selig’s introduction of a second wild card spot in each league in 2012 has done wonders for the regular season, as more teams than ever before believe they have a shot at the play-offs, but it has also meant that the World Series participants can more than ever be those clubs that get both hot and lucky at just the right time

The effects of structural changes in the MLB finance and play-off structure since 2012 provide value in ante-post betting via spotting teams that may improve faster than forecasts assume. There’s a good chance that another unlikely World Series winner will be seen in 2015, and the tip above is an attempt to find it.

 

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Next week on Betting Emporium: The Aintree Grand National Festival (9-11 April 2015)

Aintree Grand National Festival (Full Package) 9th-11th April 2015	£99.99 Sign Up Here
Aintree Grand National Saturday 11th April 2015	£50 Sign Up Here

At the Aintree Festival 2014 we had winners at 28/1, 16/1, 14/1, 4/1 and horses places at 40/1, 25/1, 18/1, 16/1, 11/1, 9/1, 8/1,11/2

All horse racing selections (since our launch in Feb 2013) are showing a +ROI of +14.95% and +764 pts

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Next Week on Betting Emporium: The Masters

The Masters, Augusta (April 9th-12th 2015) will be covered on Betting Emporium by Neil Channing HERE

It will be free to all registered users

---

Premier League Darts (5th Feb-21st May 2015)

We are now half way through this year's Premier League Darts.

Nigel Seeley is providing weekly updates on all the matches.

---

Sign up to Brodders' tips:

All Brodders bets since inception are currently showing a ROI of +5.63%  (at 17th March 2015)

Betting £10 a point would be showing a profit of +£5966.70

Subscription to Brodders' write ups, analysis and bets is £50 a month. You can join at any time

Subscribe here

---

Premier League 2014/15

Premier League Statistical Analysis 4th - 6th April 2015 - write up for the weekend has been published here

---

Bookmaker reviews and advice

Getting the best price available is very important for all those who take their betting seriously.

Please open an account with all those bookmakers on the page on this link that you do not already have an account with using the links provided.

 There are literally hundreds of pounds on offer from bookmakers just for signing up through Bettingemporium.com

---

Betting Emporium results

The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS

£10 per point on every recommended bet since launch in Feb 2013 would be winning £12,777.60 (as at 17-3-15)

All bets have an ROI +4.55% and Horse Racing has an ROI +14.95%

There is also a Frequently Asked Questions Section

Coming up this weekend

- Football, UEFA European Championship Qualifying matches and a full football league programme

- Cricket, the 2015 Cricket World Cup final in Melbourne on Sunday

- Formula One, the Malaysian Grand Prix in Sepang on Sunday

- Rugby Union, the return of Aviva Premiership and Pro-12 games after the dramatic conclusion to the Six Nations

- Racing, flat meetings at Doncaster, Kempton and Chelmsford, national hunt meetings at Stratford and Uttoxeter

- Tennis, ATP and WTP Miami Opens in Florida

- Golf, USPGA Tour: Valero Texas Open in San Antonio. European Tour: Trophee Hassan II, in Agadir, Morocco.

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Free Tips of the Week   

The Australian Grand Prix two weeks ago didn't set the pulses racing. Mercedes dominated as expected, came home in a 1-2 and routinely lapped Albert Park over a second quicker than their nearest competitor.  Mercedes are now as low as 11/4 to win every race this season.

Mercedes aside, Vettel confirmed the promise of pre-season testing for Ferrari and finished 3rd ahead of Massa who said afterwards "the red car was simply faster" in race pace and that he couldn't mount a sustained challenge to regain his lost podium position. The engine performance for Ferrari represents a big step up from 2014.  Elsewhere Red Bull's Renault power unit is a disappointment for the second year running. Post race Ricciardo said that he thought Red Bull had "slipped two seconds off the pace."

This weekend, in the second of fly-away races at the start of the season, is the Malaysian Grand Prix. Compared to Australia step changes in performance are unlikely (and will remain so until the teams beginning the European season in May). The Far East is a long way away from the test beds, wind tunnels and factories of their teams providing the legwork for the improvements in performance hoped for during a season.

We should expect some trends established in Australia to carry on in Malaysia. Just in case we think things will be too predictable though, Malaysia's race runs in extreme heat and a late-afternoon timeslot, meaning heavy rain is always a possibility given the country’s tropical climate, and that often means safety cars and opportunities for creative strategy.

The clear superiority of Mercedes is obviously the dominant force in outright markets in Formula One betting and as is usually the case in any sport with a clear winner of most races (14/1 bar two in Malaysia) we have to turn to sub-markets to find some value

Firstly, in the outright market each way terms are only 1/3 the odds top 2 apart from a couple of firms offering top 3 but ducking all the outright prices. Realistically we would have to rely on mechanical problems to get any non-Mercedes into the top two. Betting "without Mercedes" gives us a chance. I like this market currently because Formula 1 lacks depth in competitiveness. Red Bull is off the pace and the McLaren is at the back of the pack. The Force Indias are reliable but slow. Lotus and Sauber are improving and Toro Rosso has two talented young drivers, but its a stretch to expect them to hit a podium.

So we are left with Ferrari and Williams. “The Ferraris look great, they really do. It’s surprising to see how good their times are” Hamilton told the media after Friday's practices in Malaysia which saw Ferrari ahead of the field ex-Mercedes. That Ferrari is ahead of Williams at this race is interesting, as we would expect the long straights of Malaysia to favour the Williams with a Mercedes engine. Perhaps there is a caveat that the Ferrari was carrying less fuel. We can strongly suggest though that Vettel is slightly quicker than Raikkonen all other things being equal so the 6/4 about Vettel in the "Malaysian Grand Prix without Mercedes" market looks more than fair

Looking at another sub-market, "Top Six Finish" and relating that through to the pace we saw in Australia. The Lotus team is running a Mercedes engine this year and the improvements from that were seen in the first race weekend. Grosjean and Maldonado ran top ten in second and third practice, qualified in the top ten only 0.2 seconds off the Red Bull and then both failed to complete a lap of the race.

Grosjean was interviewed last week and said

"Our target for the early races is to be regularly in the top 10. We certainly demonstrated that in Albert Park and our race pace simulations were good so if we'd remained in the race we should have finished strongly. There's nothing to suggest this can't be the case in Malaysia and we really want to start scoring points."

Grosjean was 4th in FP1 in Malaysia then suffered engine problems in the second session and is priced at 5/2 to finish top six in Malaysia behind the Williams, Ferrari, Mercedes drivers and Ricciardo in the betting. Reliability is a major risk here but we can also expect attritition from runners in front. Grosjean is far preferred to Maldonado, for whom finishing a race often seems like an achievement in itself.

10 points Sebastian Vettel : 6/4 generally, Malaysian Grand Prix without Mercedes

6 points Romain Grosjean 5/2 generally, Malaysian Grand Prix top Six Finish

 

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The racing right

The announcement in last week’s Budget that the government intends to introduce a Racing Right to replace the Levy system, consultation on the scheme only having closed the week before, received a warm response from the racing industry which will administer the system that will see bookmakers pay for the right to bet on British horseracing.

Post budget quotes told us that the racing right was "“the biggest step forward for racing in a generation” and a “welcome and tremendous boost”.

The essence of the racing right is straightforward. Create a right to accept bets, and give it to racing to sell to betting firms increasing the total amount that the bookmakers pay to racing. Currently bookmakers pay 10.75% of their gross profits from their UK horseracing business to racing  (£80m) and, together with media rights and sponsorship the transfer to racing is circa £250m.

Nick Rust, the Ladbrokes director who recently crossed the tracks to become the chief executive of the BHA said that it was common sense to deliver a system that closes a loophole that means all bookmakers licensed by the Gambling Commission now pay tax in Britain but only around half of all bets placed online contribute to the Levy.

Of course, implementing the racing right is going to be far from straightforward. The Association of British Bookmakers said that the scheme is “unworkable" and the Right will face legal challenges both at home and abroad.

Firstly it will give the British Horse Racing Authority the ability to charge their own price for bookmakers to offer bets on British racing, a product on which they have a monopoly. This may attract the attention of the competition authorities. These issues might be mitigated if racing were divided up into separate packages, as we have seen in other sports. It might also be possible to give the Right to individual tracks though whether that is feasible for smaller tracks with limited fixtures is unclear.

Secondly even if British competition authorities approve, the European Commission will be a factor too as this is might be construed as "state aid", a monopoly handed to a body by the government.

Over and above legal challenges there is a further problem with the Racing Right. Horse racing is not that attractive a product for bookmakers, or for punters. It is less and less a product that younger punters want to bet on, viewing figures are down consistently and in an era where they restrict bets easily bookmakers are passing on money to racing because they must, and not because it is necessarily makes financial sense for them to do so. Under the racing right, there will be no incentive for bookmakers to promote racing to their customers. Instead there will be  incentive to steer gamblers towards sports like football, and above all cheap, risk-free gaming products like FOBTs to pay for the increased costs that the racing right brings.

If it costs bookmakers/exchanges higher fixed sums to take bets on races, some may just stop doing so, reducing revenue and presumably increasing the burden on the remaining participants.  The money could come from the pockets of punters as margins widen /commission increases. 

Perhaps racing really thinks bookmakers still can't live without their product.  However is that the case for firms, increasingly operating online and where shop revenues are FOBT led? Would these firms prefer to offer "virtual" horse-racing, other sports and casino products only?

If racing is to realise its full value from the betting public, bookmakers need to be offering it as a product not because they have to, but because they want to. That means looking at the structure of British racing as a product to market, as much as its funding.

 

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Aintree Grand National Festival (9-11 April 2015)

Aintree Grand National Festival (Full Package) 9th-11th April 2015	£99.99 Sign Up Here
Aintree Grand National Saturday 11th April 2015	£50 Sign Up Here

At the Aintree Festival 2014 we had winners at 28/1, 16/1, 14/1, 4/1 and horses places at 40/1, 25/1, 18/1, 16/1, 11/1, 9/1, 8/1,11/2

All horse racing selections (since our launch in Feb 2013) are showing a +ROI of +14.95% and +764 pts

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Premier League Darts (5th Feb-21st May 2015)

The 10 player tournament is being held on 16 successive Thursday nights through to May 21st.

Nigel Seeley is providing weekly updates on all the matches.

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The Masters

The Masters, Augusta (April 9th-12th 2015) will be covered on Betting Emporium by Neil Channing HERE

It will be free to all registered users

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Please open an account with all those bookmakers on the page on this link that you do not already have an account with using the links provided.

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Betting Emporium results

The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS

£10 per point on every recommended bet since  launch in Feb 2013 would be winning £12,777.60 (as at 17-3-15)

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