Weekly Articles "Road to Riches" by Rich 'Tighty' Prew
The Road to Riches: Weekend of 2nd-3rd January
Coming up this weekend
- Football, the Premier League fixtures include Chelsea v Manchester City
- Horse Racing, Over the jumps at Ayr, Hereford and Sandown and on the all-weather at Lingfield and Wolverhampton
- Cricket, The Big Bash League in Australia continues
- Golf, next week the Tournament of Champions in Kapalua, Hawaii
Free tip
FA Cup Ante-Post
The FA Cup 3rd round takes place next weekend. We know that as in recent years it is not a priority for many Premier League teams, and in this truncated season we are ever more likely to get rotation and in some cases limited motivation from some seemingly tired squads. At least from this year there are no replays to accentuate these problems. That said, “Big Six” sides have won 7 of the last 8 FA Cups and 13 of the last fifteen, testament to strong squads so here we are looking to identify some value ante-post positions outside the big six, each way, and try to bypass some of the rotation and motivation issues by highlighting teams which are not going to be relegated or unlikely to qualify for Europe.
This is trickier this year in a congested premier league table where seven sides look to be in the relegation battle and 2nd to 10th in the table are separated by six points.
Of course any selection will need some luck with draw, all we can do is at least try to get off on the right foot and see where thirds round draws look favourable.
A couple of candidates on my short list were Leeds (concede too many goals) and Wolves (not enough firepower without Jimenez, though the January transfer window may help) with a secondary look at Newcastle (but Arsenal away to start). All should be targeting this competition. No doubt not all will!
Instead I alighted on two teams, 10th and 12th in the betting for the competition which look to be both decent teams and good prices.
The first is Southampton at 33-1, Shrewsbury at home in the third round, nine in the Premier league having only conceded 19 goals in 16 league games, well managed and plenty of scoring options too. I was particularly struck by 33-1 compared to (say) Arsenal at 10-1
The second is West Ham at 40-1, aatStockport in the third round, mid table Premier League side that could go well.
Each way terms are ½ 1,2 and of course these are speculative positions where a lot needs to go right over five months
5 points each way Southampton to win the FA Cup at 33-1 generally
5 points each way West Ham to win the FA Cup at 40-1 generally
The 2023 Rugby World Cup Draw
It has always seemed to me a bit strange to draw the Pools for a World Cup three years in advance, as was the case in Paris before Christmas for the 2023 event that France will host. Seedings based on results in the two years before the draw will of course not necessarily reflect the pecking order when the tournament eventually takes place.
England were drawn in a Pool against Japan and Argentina. Due to COVID Japan have not played since their own World Cup on 2019. Whilst of course a lot can happen in three years we’ll see what impact a year away from internationals has on their future competitiveness.
Argentina have also had problems. Due also to COVID and major changes to Super Rugby the Jaguares side folded, a franchise for whom the bulk of the national side played. That said recent results including beating the All Blacks and drawing twice with Australia are encouraging but the organisational challenges of the next three years are going to be tough to overcome.
The shape of the draw brings England a familiar problem. In the 2019 World cup they faced a knockout stage route of Australia- New Zealand- South Africa, with the third game a “bridge too far”. This route is replicated in the 2023 draw
Looking now France are the fastest improving side in the World and the All Blacks on a modest down curve. They meet in the pool stages (first game of the tournament, anyone?). Ireland once again have been drawn with Scotland, and possibly New Zealand await in the Quarter finals
The full Pools are as follows
A: New Zealand, France, Italy, Americas 1, Africa 1
B: South Africa, Ireland, Scotland, Asia Pacific 1, Europe 2
C: Wales, Australia, Fiji, Europe 1, Qualifier tournament winner
D: England, Japan, Argentina, Oceania 1, Americas 2
StattoBets Dave Monthly Subscription
Stattobets write ups, analysis and bets are available to monthly subscribers.
Monthly subs are £50 a month and can be cancelled at any time. You can sign up here.
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £42,703.40 All bets have an ROI +2.39%
A £4000 bank betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £46,703.40 a 1068% increase
The Road to Riches: Weekend of 19th-20th December
Note: After this week The column will resume on Friday January 1st
Coming up this weekend
- Football, the Premier League returns including Manchester United v Leeds Utd
- Horse Racing, Over the jumps at Ascot, Haydock and Newcastle and on the all-weather at Lingfield and Wolverhampton
- Rugby Union, the 2020-21 European Champions Cup tournament continues
- Cricket, The Big Bash League in Australia
Free tip
European Champions Cup Rugby Pool 2 Gloucester v Ulster Saturday 3.15pm
Ulster began their campaign last weekend with a 22-29 loss to last season’s semi-finalists Toulouse having led 12-0 early on, a creditable performance against one of the tournament favourites in which they scored three tries.
Gloucester meanwhile were thrashed 55-10 at Lyon. There were mitigating circumstances, as they were without the injured Danny Cipriani (who this week has announced he is leaving the club immediately), Billy Twelvetrees, Joe Simpson, Jason Woodward, Freddie Clarke, Matt Garvey, Lloyd Evans, Val Rapava-Ruskin and Jack Stanley.
Coach George Skivington also rested Ollie Thorley, Mark Atkinson, Louis Rees-Zammit, Chris Harris, Jack Singleton, Ruan Ackermann and Ed Slater giving an indication that the game was not a priority compared to others in the pool given the injury absences.
The side that played had four teenagers in the squad and six other starters under the age of 23 against a Lyon side who were unbeaten in seven Top 14 games
Ordinarily Gloucester would be a very tough place to travel, with “The Shed” roaring on the home team but a small crowd will be in place this time. Ulster look the far superior team as a Tier 1 Pro 14 side leading their domestic group having won all eight games in the new season ahead of an also unbeaten Leinster. Last season they lost in the Pro 14 final to Leinster. The side contains a number of current Irish internationals although captain Ian Henderson is injured, but nonetheless a very well-rounded side.
Gloucester are seeded in tier 4 amongst the Gallagher Premiership sides. Last year they finished 7th having only won 8 of 22 league games, a season in which the coaching staff changed after the COVID resumption. In the new 2020-21 season they have so far won one of three games, beating Wasps but losing at Leicester and Harlequins.
Ulster are 1/3 outright favourites and -8 on the point spread.
10 points Ulster to win by 1-12 points at 2/1 with Betfair Sportsbook, 15/8 Paddy Power 7/5 Betfred
A game Changer
An 80 strong group of former rugby players is considering a joint legal action against the game’s governing bodies over the effects of concussions they suffered during their careers.
Meanwhile Rugby World Cup winner Steve Thompson and seven other former players claim the sport has left them with permanent brain damage - and are in the process of starting a claim against the game's authorities for negligence. The group includes former internationals from England and Wales who sustained head knocks during their careers. Since retiring, they are reported to have suffered symptoms such as memory loss, insomnia, migraines and depression.
The potential lawsuit is being hailed as a “game changer”, similar to the action taken by 4,500 former American football players in 2012 against the NFL, which may be forced to pay out $1 billion in compensation.
All eight players to have come forward so far have been diagnosed by neurologists at King's College, London, with early onset dementia and probable Chronic Traumatic Encephalopathy (CTE).
CTE can develop when the brain is subjected to numerous small blows or rapid movements - sometimes known as sub-concussions. The disease can only be diagnosed in a brain after death, but some experts believe if history of exposure is evaluated, it is reasonable to conclude that the risk increases. The embryonic nature of the science around the issue could play a key part in the success or failure of the overall case.
It has been found in the brains of dozens of former NFL players, as well as a handful of deceased footballers, including former West Bromwich Albion and England player Jeff Astle. A re-examination of his brain in 2014 found he had died from CTE.
This week the RFU CEO Bill Sweeney said “It's a very serious moment for us. There is no scientific proof of the causal link between concussion and CTE. There are differences between American football and rugby union. We are worried about reputational risk and we need to allay people’s fears.”
StattoBets Dave Monthly Subscription
Stattobets write ups, analysis and bets are available to monthly subscribers.
Monthly subs are £50 a month and can be cancelled at any time. You can sign up here.
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £42,703.40 All bets have an ROI +2.39%
A £4000 bank betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £46,703.40 a 1068% increase
The Road to Riches: Weekend of 12th-13th December
Coming up this weekend
- Football, the Premier League returns including Manchester United v Manchester City
- Horse Racing, Over the jumps at Cheltenham, Doncaster, Hereford and on the all-weather at Newcastle and Wolverhampton
- Rugby Union, the start of the 2020-21 European Champions Cup tournament
- Formula One, The Abu Dhabi Grand Prix
- Cricket, The Big Bash League in Australia
- Golf, the DP World Tour Golf Championship
Free tip
European Champions Cup Rugby Pool A: Bath v Scarlets 3.15pm Saturday
The first weekend of this season’s flagship European club rugby tournament. Due to COVID-`19 delaying the end of the previous tournament twenty-four clubs from the three major European domestic and regional leagues will compete on a one-year exceptional basis.
These twenty-four teams, seeded into tiers, will be broken down into two pools of twelve. Four rounds of inter-pool play will be followed by a knockout stage. The four teams from each pool with the best points will qualify for the knockout stage. Teams finishing 5th through 8th after pool play will join the Challenge Cup at the round of 16 stage (joining eight qualifiers from the Challenge Cup pool stage)
In the game I am featuring here Bath finished fourth in the Gallagher Premiership last year and lost heavily to eventual winners Bath in the play-off semi finals and have had a difficult start to the new Premiership season, losing their first two games at home to Newcastle and at Exeter before getting off the mark with a win at Worcester. They have a second tier seeding for this competition amongst the English sides and post the Autumn International season can call on seven internationals, five of them in the forwards including Sam Underhill.
The Scarlets have a third tier seeding amongst Pro 14 teams having finished 3rd of 7 teams in the pool behind Munster in the season postponed in March and resumed in truncated fashion in August. In the new season they are also in third place. They also welcome many internationals back
Bath are 1/4 outright and -11 on the handicap here having begun the week 1/3 and -8. I expect them to win by up to two scores.
10 points Bath to beat Scarlets by 1-12 points at 6/4 with Betfred
What’s for Wentz?
In the NFL we've watched former second overall draft pick Carson Wentz of the Eagles play at a high level for three consecutive campaigns between 2017 and 2019 including most of the season the Eagles won the Super-Bowl prior to his injury. He led his team to the playoffs with an injury-riddled wide receiver group last season, but the Eagles also had the 11th-ranked rushing offense and a relatively consistent offensive line.
This season’s performance is a far cry from those levels, which eventually saw him benched for second round draft pick Jalen Hurts during the loss to the Packers on Sunday Hurts has since been named the new starting quarterback and the rookie will start on Sunday versus the New Orleans Saints.
Wentz was completing just 58% of his passes (worst in the NFL among starters) and, of most alarm, led the league in interceptions (12) and total turnovers (16).
Across the franchise there are other issues affecting this performance notably big losses from Injuries. Before Week 1, the Eagles lost left tackle Andre Dillard (torn biceps) and right guard Brandon Brooks (torn Achilles) for the year. The front office re-signed Jason Peters to fill the latter position, but the 38 year old has been inconsistent at best and has also missed four games injured.
A fortnight ago Eagles lost three-time Pro Bowl right tackle Lane Johnson and Philadelphia rolled out its 11th offensive line combination last weekend
Secondly Wentz has suffered from his receivers form. They’ve dropped 29 passes this season, the most in the league and few of them win on the outside of the field consistently. Play calling has been an issue such as the Head Coach has publically contemplated handing over those responsibilities.
The biggest issue of all that the Eagles face is a financial one. Wentz signed a 4 year $109m contract extension last year, fourth highest in the league. If he is not on the roster in 2021 the cost to the franchise from the salary cap is $60m under the guaranteed component of the contract. For 2022 the cost would be $24m. There is an argument that this contract is a “sunk cost” and if its wrong, you should move on but in practical terms
Next year’s salary cap could be as low as $175m ($198m this year) due to falls in league revenue in a COVID year and the Eagles have $264m in committed contract liabilities for players next year. So it looks as if Wentz is on the roster to stay, but a number of other expensive players probably won’t be.
It could be a rough time ahead for a franchise that only won the Super=-Bowl three years ago.
StattoBets Dave Monthly Subscription
Stattobets write ups, analysis and bets are available to monthly subscribers.
Monthly subs are £50 a month and can be cancelled at any time. You can sign up here.
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £42,703.40 All bets have an ROI +2.39%
A £4000 bank betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £46,703.40 a 1068% increase
The Road to Riches Weekend of 5th-6th December
Coming up this weekend
- Football, the Premier League returns including Tottenham v Arsenal
- Horse Racing, Over the jumps at Aintree, Chepstow, Sandown and Wetherby and on the all-weather at Wolverhampton
- Rugby Union, the final games of the Autumn Nations Cup
- Formula One, The Sakhir Grand Prix in Bahrain
- Cricket, An ODI between South Africa and England in Paarl
- Golf, on the PGA Tour the Mayakoba Golf Classic and on the European Tour the South African Open.
Free tip
Autumn Nations Cup Rugby Final England v France 2pm Sunday
England as expected made it to the final of this competition with wins against Ireland Wales showing similar characteristics. Lots of defence, plenty of kicking and playing territory and a dominant forward pack that is terrific at the breakdown. A very difficult side to beat, only South Africa in the World Cup final beat them up front, at which point we saw the absence of a Plan B.
France have played this tournament operating within the terms of an agreement with the Top 14 club sides that has meant that players have only been available for three fixtures this autumn so France coach Fabien Galthie named 11 uncapped players last weekend when beating Italy to make the final. Scrum-half Antoine Dupont, captain Charles Ollivon and centre Virimi Vakatawa are among those who have already played three Tests this autumn, whilst fly half Ntamack is injured. The squad for this game did not include any of the starting XV that beat England in the opening Six Nations match in February.
Back in 2018 France were the U20 World Cup winners, and players from that squad have been emerging into the senior side in 2020. This fixture is going to be a major test of France’s depth and emerging talent given the enforced absences. Meanwhile England's top-flight clubs have agreed to make their players available for the extra internationals this year.
So all this is reflected in prices for the game. England are 1/6 outright and -16 on the handicap. However their style, and the ability of teams under the modern game rules at the breakdown to restrict quick ball, mean that really comprehensive wins are difficult to achieve and England have tended not to run up scores against Tier 1 opposition in 2020.
In essentially taking France on the spread we are taking the prospects of a young team on trust of course.
10 points England to win by 1-12 point at 5/2 with Betfair Sportsbook, 23/10 Paddy Power,21/10 Betfred
Trade Winds
Sam Darnold was drafted with the third pick in the 2018 NFL draft by the New York Jets and has been on a series of bad rosters, in dysfunctional coaching situations and at times dealing with injury ever since. He has two years of his rookie contract remaining.
Now the Jets have a 0-11 record this season and are odds-on to select first in the 2021 draft, in a year where by all accounts a generational QB talent awaits, Trevor Lawrence of Clemson, with the assumption that a rebuilding (again) Jets organisation almost certainly with a new coaching staff will draft him leaving Darnold surplus to requirements.
This means that for a player who is still only 23 whose situation has been so bad and with the premium on finding a Quarterback that some teams are going to view him as a potential starter for them.
This has a recent precedent. Ryan Tannehill, coincidentally coached by Adam Gase for part of his NFL career as Darnold has been, was at Miami for 7 years and was traded for a 4th rounder to the Titans who he took deep into the play-offs last season and received a $91m contract for doing so.
In terms of what a potential trade return would be for the Jets, no doubt they would try for a first round selection. This has to be viewed as unlikely though as they don’t have much leverage. If they get the no. 1 pick, everyone around the league will know they’ll have to trade Darnold.
Then we turn to the question of who would want to acquire Darnold? In no particular order a few candidates might be
Washington might win enough games to remove them from contention for a top five pick in the 2021 draft and after the failed selection of Haskins have no long term solution on their roster, and a defense stacked with top draft picks to build around on the other side of the ball
Both the Lions and Falcons have coaching changes ahead with 30+ year old quarterbacks in Matthew Stafford and Matt Ryan
At the Pittsburgh Steelers Big Ben Roethlisberger is 38, the roster is loaded and a starter/successor via the draft seems unlikely.
At the Chicago Bears it’s possible that the Bears could look to hit the reset button following another miserable season from the team’s offense.
For the 49ers, quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo has a $26.9 million cap hit in 2021, but only $2.8 million guaranteed.
Perhaps the option that makes the most sense is the Indianapolis Colts who are currently operating under stop gap veteran Philip Rivers and both he and 2019 starter Jacoby Brissett are free agents following this season. Indianapolis has a good roster and and a lot of cap space to use were Darnold to work out and a big second contract be required.
So there are no shortage of teams who might be interested and plenty of potential for Darnold, away from the Jets to succeed in the league.
StattoBets Dave Monthly Subscription
Stattobets write ups, analysis and bets are available to monthly subscribers.
Monthly subs are £50 a month and can be cancelled at any time. You can sign up here.
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £42,703.40 All bets have an ROI +2.39%
A £4000 bank betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £46,703.40 a 1068% increase
The Road to Riches Weekend of 28-29th November
Coming up this weekend
- Football, the Premier League returns including Chelsea v Tottenham
- Horse Racing, Over the jumps at Bangor, Doncaster, Newbury and Newcastle and on the all-weather at Wolverhampton
- Rugby Union, the third weekend of the Autumn Nations Cup
- Formula One, The Bahrain Grand Prix
- Cricket, the Second T20I between South Africa and England in Paarl
- Golf, on the PGA Tour the Bermuda Championship and on the European Tour the Cyprus Open.
Free tip
Autumn Nations Cup Rugby Group A Wales v England 4pm Saturday
This game will be played in Llanelli, which I begin with as it is a significant difference to playing in a packed-out Principality Stadium for this Welsh team, especially against England.
England beat Ireland 18-7 last Saturday. They defended well, they kicked a lot and in the second half when England had established a decisive advantage, they did not get out of third gear in terms of attacking because they were just determined to put pressure on their opponent. England made 255 tackles in the game compared to Ireland's 84.
Wales rested most of their first choice side and beat Georgia for their first win in seven games. Here of course their major challenges are going to re-emerge. Can they compete up front (they have selected their strongest scrummaging front five)? What are their plans in attack (appear to lack midfield options in particular)? Can they pressure England sufficiently? I doubt it.
England are 15 point favourites here, and Wales 7/1 outright. If England are able to change gears and produce a more rounded game, it’s probable they will win well. Instead their pragmatic style full of kicking (selecting both Ford and Farrell points to a territory led game) and pressure from defence means the winning margin is likely to be slimmer than under a more expansive approach, albeit at far lower risk.
10 points England to win by 1-12 points at 9/4 with Betfair Sportsbook, 21/10 with PaddyPower, 11/5 Betfred
27 Days later
Under a month after Exeter achieved the domestic and European double by winning the Gallagher Premiership Final last weekend the new season got under way.
Exeter of course are favourites to repeat their win with a squad containing the depth to withstand the International and injury absences of Jack Nowell, Stuart Hogg, Jonny Hill and Henry Slade in part because of a consistent approach and low error rugby and in part because class players such as Joe and Sam Simmonds are not international regulars at this point so available every week.
Wasps, Bristol and Bath completed the top four last season, Bristol in particular displaying an exciting attacking style. Sale would have challenged them for a play-off place had they not had a number of COVID cases at the club leading them to forfeit their final match of the season.
At the other end of the table, Leicester and London Irish finished 11th and 10th respectively last season and their first priority, probably alongside Worcester and Newcastle, will be safety.
Former England assistant coach Steve Borthwick is now the Leicester first-team as head coach. For London Irish, they take up tenancy at Brentford's Community Stadium after 20 years at Reading's Madejski Stadium.
Saracens were relegated for breaches of the salary cap and their Championship season begins in January. It will be a Premiership season without star players such as England captain Owen Farrell, Maro Itoje, Billy and Mako Vunipola , Elliot Daly and Jamie George.which is inopportune timing from a marketing viewpoint for a domestic game dealing with financial losses from no gate revenue.
StattoBets Dave Monthly Subscription
Stattobets write ups, analysis and bets are available to monthly subscribers.
Monthly subs are £50 a month and can be cancelled at any time. You can sign up here.
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £42,703.40 All bets have an ROI +2.39%
A £4000 bank betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £46,703.40 a 1068% increase
