Weekly Articles "Road to Riches" by Rich 'Tighty' Prew
The Road to Riches Weekend of 17th-18th October
Coming up this weekend
- Horse Racing, on the flat at Ascot, Catterick and Wolverhampton and over the jumps at Market Rasen and Stratford
- Football, Premier League fixtures include Everton v Liverpool and Manchester City v Arsenal
- Tennis, ATP European and Stockholm Opens start on Monday
- Golf, the CJ Cup at Shadow Creek on the USPGA and the Scottish Open at St Andrews on the European Tour.
- Rugby Union, the European Champions Cup Final between Exeter and Racing 92 on Saturday
- Cricket, the IPL continues
Champions League 2020/21 Full Package by Brodders.
Outrights, previews, group stage, knockout stages and the final in May 2021 (125 games), the first report is out today. If you had bet £10 a point just on our Champions League bets you would have won £4697 with an ROI +3.41%. Get all the write ups and bets Oct 2020 - May 2021 for £199: here
Free tip
Exeter v Racing 92, European Champions Cup Final Ashton Gate, Bristol Saturday 4.45pm, Channel 4
Over the next two weekends Exeter Chiefs go for two titles, the European final this weekend then the Gallagher Premiership final against Wasps a week later
Exeter are the dominant team in English rugby, both in the domestic team and in European competition where they won five and drew one of their pool games and in the knockout stages overcame a fast start from Toulouse in their home semi-final. Exeter not only executed their trademark forward moves near the line but played some strike rugby from further out too.
Racing beat Saracens late on at home in their semi-final in what was possibly a kind draw as Saracens expended a lot of energy the week before in Dublin.
Since the semi-finals the two sides have had different preparations. Exeter, in the South West where COVID incidence is quite low, rested players before their semi-final last weekend with Bath and only have to travel up the road for this final
Racing meanwhile have had 9 cases of COVID in their training camp. Since the Saracens semi- final their training ground has been closed for five days during a complete decontamination where the players did nothing but isolate and they have been training in groups of four since. With two full weeks with disruptions, and a fringe team lost 30-24 to Toulouse last weekend. Travelling from Paris to Bristol of course isn’t an arduous trip but after a limited preparation its quite an ask to expect them to be at full gas.
Nonetheless Racing are an exciting team with the “x-factor” players of midfield pair Finn Russell and Virimi Vakatawa. In tandem they have the ability to conjure threats to Exeter but the English are so disciplined and well prepared that we have to expect them to win.
Exeter are 4-9 outright Racing 15/8, with Exeter -5 on the point spread. The winning margin marvet offers us some juice:
10 Points Exeter to beat Racing92 by 1-12 points 13/8 Betfair Sportsbook 6/4 Betfred
The Big Picture
Project Big Picture, the brainchild of Liverpool and Manchester United included plans to reduce the Premier League to 18 teams, give greater power to the ‘big six’ and abolish the League Cup and Community Shield.
It also proposed EFL clubs will receive an immediate £250million rescue package and a 25 per cent future annual share of Premier League revenue.
EFL Chairman Rick Parry was one of the drivers behind the proposals and gave on the record support
“The proposal is designed for the greater good of English football.”
EFL clubs swung as a bloc behind Project Big Picture, despite concerns over a potential power shift at the top of the game.
The proposals included a revamp of the Premier League voting system, giving greater power to the nine longest-serving clubs, . with only the votes of six of those ‘long-term shareholders’ needed to make major changes. and abolishing the threshold of 14 votes to pass any resolution, which is likely to meet with opposition The Premier League has been governed by the one-club, one-vote rule but if this change is accepted power would shift to the big six of as well as Everton, Southampton and West Ham.
Also controversial was the proposed introduction of a relegation play-off for the 16th-placed Premier League club against clubs in third, fourth and fifth in the Championship even without the realistic possibility of four clubs being relegated in the changeover season bringing the top flight down to 18 members.
With government, Premier League and club opposition to the proposals as expected, it does return the onus on these stakeholders to accelerate their own EFL financial support plans, now at least six months in development and with no announcement in sight. There is much benefit in proposals for the EFL but the Big Six power grab will change the face of the Premier League and may lead to erosion of identity of EFL clubs by stealth.
Ultimately the Premier League clubs told Liverpool and United that the plan, was a non-starter and that there was no prospect of them agreeing to the measures which abolished the one-club, one-vote democracy
The Premier League said: “Premier League Shareholders today unanimously agreed to work together as a 20-club collective on a strategic plan for the future structures and financing of English football. Premier League clubs also agreed that Project Big Picture will not be endorsed by the Premier League, any of its clubs or The FA.”
Subsequently Premier League clubs have agreed to conduct a strategy review involving all 20 clubs not just 2.
StattoBets Dave Monthly Subscription
Stattobets write ups, analysis and bets are available to monthly subscribers.
Monthly subs are £50 a month and can be cancelled at any time. You can sign up here.
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £42,703.40 All bets have an ROI +2.39%
A £4000 bank betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £46,703.40 a 1068% increase
The Road to Riches Weekend of 10-11th October
Coming up this weekend
- Horse Racing, on the flat at Chelmsford City, Newmarket and York and over the jumps at Chepstow and Hexham
- Football, England play Belgium in the UEFA Nations League
- Formula One, the Eifel Grand Prix at the Nurburgring
- Tennis, the final weekend of the French Open
- Golf, the Shriners Hospitals for Children Open at TPC Summerlin on the USPGA and the BMW PGA Championship at Wentworth.
- Cricket, the IPL continues
Free tip
IPL Cricket Saturday 3pm CSK v RCB, Dubai
Winners of the IPL in 2018, runners up last year Chennai have made a slow start to this year’s IPL with just 2 wins from their first six matches after losing to KKR on Wednesday at the venue they will play RCB on Saturday. RCB, meanwhile, perennial under-achievers in the tournament despite star studded line-ups have won 3 games out of 5.
With the whole tournament taking place in the Middle East on slow pitches slow bowlers have come to the fore as expected. For CSK their leg spinner Piyush Chawla was their top wicket taker through the first five matches, six wickets had come at an average of 25.16, an economy rate of 8.88 and a strike rate of 17. It was a surprise to see him benched on Wednesday. Only two CSK bowlers had an economy rate of under 8, for example. Sam Curran now has 7 wickets opening the bowling in what has been an impressive season for him so far with bat and ball
Prior to joining CSK Chawla had picked up 66 wickets in 70 T20s at an average of 27.80, an economy rate of 8.22 and a strike rate of 20.30 during a six-year stint at KKR. I would expect him to return to the line up here, in part because amongst the RCB “big three” of Kohli, Finch and de Villiers Finch has a well known weakness against hr leg-spinner’s googly.
Because Chawla was left out last time, he’s available at a more than fair price in the Top CSK bowler market for this match. It’s a value opportunity
10 points Piyush Chawla Top CSK wicket taker at 9/2 with William Hill, 4/1 Betfred
End of an era
Honda, one of four F1 engine manufacturers has announced that they will leave the sport at the end of the 2021 season. This has obvious implications for their customers Red Bull and AlphaTauri, plus their drivers in particular Max Verstappen.
Covid-19 has put extreme pressure on global automotive businesses, making it increasingly difficult for the Honda board to continue to sanction significant funds being funnelled into F1. Despite the success Honda has enjoyed with Red Bull and AlphaTauri, including five wins, their motorsport team has consistently faced a battle with the manufacturer’s board to keep them involved in F1.
Red Bull has signed to remain in Formula 1 until at least the end of 2025 with both their works team and AlphaTauri. Under the current rules, Renault would be obliged to supply them and AlphaTauri with engines as they currently have the fewest customers. Red Bull would likely want to avoid a resumption of that relationship, while Renault won’t be enthusiastic either however there isn’t much time for Red Bull to encourage a new manufacturer into the sport in time for 2022.
The big global car groups like Mercedes and BMW have currently got to offer petrol, diesel, hybrid and electric cars, while they'll also be investing in fuel-cell technology. That's five completely different power sources. You can't imagine any other manufacturers wanting to join in with a super-expensive hybrid F1 engine now, it's not relevant to their future business models
That means for Red Bull it’s either Renault again or hope they can convince Ferrari or Mercedes to supply them. Given they failed to persuade either of those two at the last attempt, it’s unlikely the outcome will be any different this time.
Max Verstappen meanwhile has already signed with Red Bull until the end of 2023.The prospect of a return to Renault, of whom he was critical during their time together, is not going to fill him with joy.
StattoBets Dave Monthly Subscription
Stattobets write ups, analysis and bets are available to monthly subscribers.
Monthly subs are £50 a month and can be cancelled at any time. You can sign up here.
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £42,703.40 All bets have an ROI +2.39%
A £4000 bank betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £46,703.40 a 1068% increase
The Road to Riches Weekend of 3rd-4th October
Coming up this weekend
- Horse Racing, on the flat at Ascot, Newmarket, Redcar and Wolverhampton and over the jumps at Fontwell Park
- Football, Premier League fixtures featuring Manchester United v Tottenham Hotspur
- Tennis, the French Open continues
- Golf, the Sanderson Farms Championship on the USPGA and the Scottish Open on the European Tour.
- Cricket, T20 Blast finals day
Free tip
T20 Finals day, Edgbaston, Saturday
A showpiece of the English season, though obviously in this strange truncated season a final at the beginning of October with the strong possibility of weather disruptions is atypical and introduces some variance around the toss and Duckworth-Lewis
The semi-final draw is as follows:
Surrey v Gloucs the early semi-final at 11am
Lancashire v Notts
Odds for Finals day are as follows:
Notts 15/8
Surrey 5/2
Gloucs 3/1
Lancs 100/30
Surrey qualified top of the South group and convincingly beat kent in their quarter finals and should be favourites having won 8 consecutive games in the competition, they play Gloucestershire who topped their groups with seven wins out of 10 then dismissed Northants for 113 in their quarter final at Bristol. A resolutely unfashionable side without star names they have never won the competition but have a crop of very talented players who are specialists in the format.. Gloucs are tough under-rated opponents but they have the toughest draw here to my mind.
To my mind we should be looking at the second of the games for a potential winner. For a start these two teams avoid a very tough semi-final against Surrey
Lancashire are a well-balanced side that only crept into the last eight but is full of all-round talent with plenty of big-hitters, pace bowling and spin options whatever the conditions. They have just gone to Sussex in the quarters, their spinners taking 8 wickets and defending 140.
Their opponents are Notts who won a nail-biter low scoring quarter at home to Leics. Their main strength is in bowling. Jake Ball is among the players on 14 wickets in the group stages, with an impressive strike rate of one every 10.7 balls bowled. He is one of four Nottinghamshire bowlers with an economy below eight, the other three being the pace-off trio of Imad Wasim, Steven Mullaney and Samit Patel.
To see early prices for the second semi at Notts 8/13 Lancs 13/10 is a bit of a surprise to me, I could make the case that Lancs should be favourites and thus the value in the outright market as the outsider of the four teams
10 points Lancashire to win the T20 Blast at 100/30 with Betfred, 3/1 William Hill
End of an era
The Champions Cup semi-final defeat of Saracens by Racing 92 marks the "end of an era" for the team. Saracens had won three of the last four Champions Cup finals and four of the past five Premiership titles and will now play in the second-tier Championship next season after a 105-point deduction for salary-cap breaches led to their relegation.
The salary cap breaches were in part made to enable the club to compete on the European stage with rivals operating within larger French salary caps and Leinster specifically.
Over those four seasons Saracens played 23 knockout games in either Europe or the Premiership and won 19 of those games.
A number of high-profile players have left Saracens in the wake of their punishment being announced with Liam Williams, George Kruis, Ben Spencer and Will Skelton departing on permanent deals. Captain Brad Barritt and scrum-half Richard Wiggleworth, 34 and 37 respectively, will also leave at the end of the season.
While high-profile England internationals like Owen Farrell, Maro Itoje, Jamie George and Elliot Daly have committed their futures to the club, some may follow the likes of Ben Earl, Max Malins, Alex Lozowski and Nick Isiekwe in agreeing loan deals elsewhere.
Saracens supplied six starters for last autumn’s World Cup final defeat and would have been widely represented in Warren Gatland’s 2021 Lions squad but for relegation. England may choose to activate their exceptional circumstances rule to enable them to pick the likes of Farrell and Itoje even if they have agreed contracts to play in France or Japan.
The hard work starts now to speak to England and the Lions, determine the squad for next season and the workload for the major players ahead of a 12 month season
StattoBets Dave Monthly Subscription
Stattobets write ups, analysis and bets are available to monthly subscribers.
Monthly subs are £50 a month and can be cancelled at any time. You can sign up here.
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £45,054.80 All bets have an ROI +2.64%
A £4000 bank betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £49,034.80 a 1126% increase
The Road to Riches Weekend of 26th-27th September
Coming up this weekend
- Horse Racing, on the flat at Chelmsford City, Chester, Haydock, Newmarket and Ripon and over the jumps at Market Rasen
- Football, the new Premier League season continues featuring Liverpool v Arsenal
- Tennis, the start of the French Open
- Rugby Union the European Champions Cup Semi Finals on Saturday
- Formula One, the Russian Grand Prix in Sochi
- Golf, the Corales Puntacana Resort and Club Championship 2020 on the USPGA
- Cricket, the IPL continues
Free tip
Exeter v Toulouse, European Champions Cup Rugby Semi Final Saturday 3.30pm
Crunch time for the Toulouse ante-post bet and it is going to be a tough ask with Exeter the likely English Gallagher Premiership Champions at a difficult place to visit even in the COVID era.
Exeter have only lost five games all season and in the European Quarter final weren’t at their best but still accounted for Northampton 38-15. Exeter are a settled side with the flair of Hogg, Nowell and Slade outside a very strong forward unit and in back-rowers Vermuelen and Simmons two tp quality players in great form.
Toulouse have a decent chance though. Ulster were unlucky with early injuries but never looked like getting close to the French, eventually losing 36-8. Like Exeter in their quarter Toulouse were not at their best for long spells of the match. Some of their passing and handling was well below the levels we saw in their 2019 Top 14 title year. However when it clicked Toulouse looked sensational and in scrum half Antoine Dupont and the wing Cheslin Kolbe they have two true “x-factor” players.
It is likely they will be fitter up front and sharper behind against Exeter. Whereas the Premiership clubs had played seven games post lockdown, the French have managed no more than two and Toulouse will improve from their quarter-final win.
I see two particular problems for the French. Firstly their very big pack are vulnerable around the fringes. Ulster exploited this at times, Exeter will do so more. Secondly they choose to have Ramos kicking goals rather than Ntamack the fly half and kicker for the national side. Every point is going to matter and I see Ntamack as the more reliable kicker
Exeter are 8/13 outright, Toulouse 7/5 and +3 on the handicap. It’s tempting to recommend Toulouse but I expect Exeter to win narrowly
10 Points Exeter to beat Toulouse by 1-12 points at 2.8 on the Betfair Exchange, 17/10 on the Sportsbook and 8/5 with Betfred
Injured Reserve
The sheer rate of injuries in the first two weeks of the new NFL season has been eye-opening even by the standards of a sport with such physical contact. There has been more impact in PR terms this season as injuries have affected so many star players. Last Sunday alone saw 49ers quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo and defensive end Nick Bosa, Broncos quarterback Drew Lock and Giants running back Saquon Barkley all left their games in the first half. Bosa and Barkley are out for the season. After the games it was confirmed that running back Christian McCaffrey is also out for multiple weeks. In week one notable names such as Michael Thomas, George kittle were injured too.
In terms of percentage of the salary cap out injured Denver, San Francisco and Dallas are currently worst affected though the changed IR rules for this season – players on injured reserve can return after three weeks – does at least give some greater flexibility. Torn ACLs are the highest incidence of injuries with the emphasis on fast twists and turns especially at the skill positions.
Why might this be? Four pre-season games wouldn't have prevented all of these injuries, of course though preseason reps would have better prepared the body for type of hits regularly sustained in football games. The absence of a full eight month off-season programme through to training camps might be more significant where by week two the impact of asking players to play 150 snaps at full pelt within seven days after playing no live reps for more than eight months. There is even unhappiness at the state of some of the field conditions around the league, for example in New York’s MetLife Stadium.
StattoBets Dave Monthly Subscription
Stattobets write ups, analysis and bets are available to monthly subscribers.
Monthly subs are £50 a month and can be cancelled at any time. You can sign up here.
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £45,054.80 All bets have an ROI +2.64%
A £4000 bank betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £49,034.80 a 1126% increase
The Road to Riches Weekend of 19th-20th September
Coming up this weekend
- Horse Racing, on the flat at Catterick, Chelmsford City, Newbury, Newmarket and Wolverhampton
- Football, the new Premier League season continues featuring Chelsea v Liverpool
- Rugby Union, the European Champions Cup Quarter finals
- Golf, the US Open at Winged Foot on the USPGA and the Portugal Open on the European tour
- Cricket, the delayed IPL season starts on Sunday
Free tip
European Champions Cup Rugby Quarter Finals
Toulouse v Ulster Sunday 12.30pm
Seemingly a long time ago this column put up Toulouse each-way ante-post for the tournament at 9-1 (two places paid)
In their group last Autumn Toulouse won all six games to earn the third seed for the knockout stages
Ulster finished 2nd to Clermont in their group with 5 wins out of 6 games to earn the 6th seed
The winner of this quarter-final faces the formidable task of probably playing runaway Gallagher Premiership leaders Exeter in the semi-finals. Exeter host Northampton in another Quarter final this weekend.
On their resumption after the COVID suspensions Toulouse have played two games in the French top 14, losing narrowly to at Clermont 33-30 before beating La rochelle 39-23 at home last weekend
Ulster reached the Pro 14 final winning 22-19 in Edinburgh with the last kick of the game then on Saturday lost the final 27-5 to Leinster
Ulster are a solid side, well coached with several key players notably the wing Jacob Stockdale, scrum half John Cooney and Iain Henderson the second row who is now back from injury after seven months out
It’s unlikely they will go toe to toe with Toulouse away from home for 80 minutes though and this is of course reflected in outright odds of Toulouse 1/4 Ulster 4/1. Toulouse are -12 on the point spread.
In the winning margin market Toulouse at 1-12 points is my play. Ulster will scrap and defend mightily and whilst I would expect Toulouse to be stronger, I don’t see this being too one-sided
10 points Toulouse to win by 1-12 points 3.15 on Betfair 9/4 Sportsbook 21/10 PaddyPower (13/8 Betfred)
Autumn Rugby Championship
A new eight-team rugby tournament will be played in Europe this November and December. The Autumn Nations Cup will involve the Six Nations teams – England, France, Ireland, Italy, Scotland and Wales – as well as Fiji and Georgia. It will take place over four successive weekends from 13 November to 6 December, with the eight teams split into two pools of four. Group A features England, Georgia, Ireland and Wales while Group B comprises France, Scotland, Italy and Fiji.
Teams will play the other nations in their pool in a round-robin format before a finals weekend where the winners of each group will play each other, as will the runners-up and so on to determine final rankings.
The tournament will kick off with Ireland hosting Wales at the Aviva Stadium on Friday 13 November. The following day England will play Georgia at Twickenham and Italy will face Scotland, while on Sunday 15 November France will play Fiji.
The tournament is an alternative to the traditional and lucrative autumn international season where the big Southern Hemisphere sides come to Europe each November, avoided this year due to COVID considerations. Fiji can’t turn down the financial benefit though. This is an opportunity for Georgia on the big international stage particularly given the poor performances of Italy in the Six Nations over many years and calls for the Italians to be dropped from the tournament
Every game, except Ireland’s home matches against Wales and Georgia, will be shown live on Amazon Prime. Channel 4 will also show three matches live on free-to-air TV – Ireland v Wales, England v Ireland and Ireland v Georgia – as well as highlights from all four rounds.
StattoBets Dave Monthly Subscription
Stattobets write ups, analysis and bets are available to monthly subscribers.
Monthly subs are £50 a month and can be cancelled at any time. You can sign up here.
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £45,054.80 All bets have an ROI +2.64%
A £4000 bank betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £49,034.80 a 1126% increase
