Weekly Articles "Road to Riches" by Rich 'Tighty' Prew
The Road to Riches: Weekend of 6th-7th February
Coming up this weekend
- Football, Premier League fixtures include Liverpool v Manchester City
- NFL, Super-bowl LV in Tampa Bay on Sunday night
- Rugby Union, the start of the Six Nations Championship
- Horse Racing, Over the jumps at Musselburgh, Sandown and Wetherby and Doncaster and on the all-weather at Kempton and Lingfield
- Cricket, the start of the India-England test series in Chennai and The Big Bash League Final
- Golf, the Waste Management Phoenix Open at Scottsdale on the USPGA and the Saudi International on the European tour
Free tip
The 2021 Six Nations
Only finally confirmed as taking place as late as this week, this weekend sees the start of the 2021 Six Nations. The teams go into the tournament with the rarity of recent form against each other to look at after the Autumn Nations Cup won by England. England beat France to the Six Nations title last year and go into the 2021 renewal as sort as Evens to win again ahead of France at 5/2 and Ireland at 7/2. In the continuing COVID environment there could be issues ahead with scheduling and team selection for all the sides.
England go into the Six Nations with a long injury list in the forwards including Underhill, Mako Vunipola and Launchbury, also with Sinckler suspended and Marler opting out. What England do have though is unparalleled strength in depth though were the absences to include the likes of Itoje, Owen Farrell or Youngs at any point, prospects become much murkier. They might start slow, a number of key players haven't had any rugby in a month, and they are not going to eviscerate sides but are very tough to beat.
France of course now have a great captain, masses of young talent and particularly on the defensive side of the ball, world class coaching with Sean Edwards. They do though have three of their five games away from home this Championship, notably including at Twickenham
Ireland were top of the table going into the final round of games in 2020 and are on the cusp on a transition from a range of veteran players towards a new generation but for now will be at least a difficult “out” for all their opponents. In terms of their prospects for this title, they have only two games at home, but those games are against England and France.
Wales have only won 3 of their last ten games under Pivac, struggling to develop an attacking style to unlock teams, a problems for several years.
Scotland continue to develop, have Russell and Hogg back in tandem and an improving forward pack. They though have to go to Twickenham and Paris. Winning the three home games is a decent possibility.
For Italy, one win would be progress but continues to look unlikely no matter the young talent coming through as the rest of the teams improve alongside them
It would be quite rare for me to back England for a Grand Slam, for which the firms have them 2-1 + going into the Championship. Three of their first four games are at home: Scotland, Italy, and France, with one away trip to Wales. There is every chance that they travel to Dublin for the final round unbeaten. Of course that will not be easy, with the hosts potentially having the opportunity to deny England the slam but with the brilliant Irish crowd almost certain to still be absent (at least in large numbers) I would have England to win based on their brilliant defence in what we could expect to be an attritional game .
15 points England to win the Grand Slam at 3.7 on the Betfair Exchange 12/5 with William Hill, 11/5 Betfred
A star trade beckons
The rarity of a blockbuster NFL trade is approaching in the off-season after the Houston Texans quarterback DeShaun Watson, unhappy with the team ownership and about being left out of the team’s messy hiring process for a new head coach despite promises to the contrary, has requested a trade
A three-time pro-bowler, in his fourth NFL season just finished on a bad four win team, Watson won the NFL passing yards title. A genuine franchise quarterback, only 25 years old and amazing that Houston allowed relations to deteriorate to this point and it sets up what will be a hot trade market.
Trading Watson would bring the Texans a big haul of draft picks (for a side that has spent several years jettisoning them to acquire veteran talent) but unless the trade also secured a young franchise quarterback in return they could spend the highest pick acquired on a successor to Watson.
Undoubtedly if forced to trade him the Texans would like to trade Watson into the NFC, out of their conference but a significant factor in negotiations will be that Watson has a no trade clause in his contract. He can veto any destination he does not want to get traded to.
The list of candidate teams that will be interested will be long. For most the Jets and Dolphins will be at the top of the list
The Jets acquired first-round picks in each of the next two drafts when they traded safety Jamal Adams to the Seattle Seahawks. They pick at No. 2 overall this year and own two first-rounders (their own and Seattle’s) in 2021 and 2022. With a new Head coach and Sam Darnold approaching the end of his rookie deal, they have both the draft assets and motivation to be in the hunt here, plus they operate in a huge media market for Watson’s commercial prospects.
The Dolphins currently own two first-round picks in the 2021 NFL Draft, including the No. 3 overall selection they acquired from the Texans in the Laremy Tunsil trade, and four total picks in the top 50. They also have quarterback Tua Tagovailoa, the fifth overall pick last year, who could be added to a potential Watson package. Their roster is ready to win now being quite late in their rebuilding process, apart from some offensive skill positions such as wide receiver.
Any viable trade proposal for Watson likely would need to include several first-round draft choices. The Dolphins and Jets can fulfill those requirements while also offering Houston a coveted top-three pick.
Amongst other teams candidates include:
The San Francisco 49ers who have Jimmy Garoppolo under contract for 2021, who could be offered as part of the trade. The new Houston General manager drafted Garoppolo as part of the Patriots front office in 2014.
Washington Football Team started four different quarterbacks this season including three over the final three games, with Taylor Heinicke taking the field for a playoff game after joining the roster last month. There is no obvious starting quarterback on the roster. Washington’s defense has evolved into one of the league’s top units but they might not have the draft capital to compete in the auction without throwing in some starter quality players.
In reality there is little chance that the Texans would trade to a team in their own division but the Indianapolis Colts would be an obvious candidate otherwise. They’re in the market for their quarterback of the future. They’ve got young talent on offense in running back Jonathan Taylor and receiver Michael Pittman Jr. They’ve got one of the best offensive lines in football. And they own the fourth-most salary cap space heading into this offseason, so they have the resources needed to absorb Watson’s contract. A potential Watson-to-Indianapolis trade would immediately make the Colts a Super Bowl contender.
Finally the Denver Broncos have a new general manager, a top ten draft pick this year and good amount of salary cap space available and a young quarterback in Drew Lock where the jury is still out. Most attractive to Watson may be the young trio of wide receivers, Courtland Sutton, Jerry Jeudy and KJ Hamler, and young tight end Noah Fant. Perhaps the Broncos aren’t the “win now in a big market” opportunity that Watson seeks.
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The Road to Riches: Weekend of 30th-31st January
Coming up this weekend
- Football, Premier League fixtures include Arsenal v Manchester United
- Horse Racing, Over the jumps at Cheltenham and Doncaster and on the all-weather at Kempton and Lingfield
- Cricket, The Big Bash League Play-Offs
- Golf, the Farmers Insurance Open at Torrey Pines on the USPGA and the Dubai Desert Classic
Free tip
Big Bash League Play-Offs
The 2020-21 Big Bash League Play-Offs began today where the 4th and 5th seeds Brisbane Heat and Adelaide Strikers played the eliminator game and the Heat won through to meet the 3rd seed Sydney Thunder in an effective semi-final on Sunday.
Saturday morning our time sees the first and second seeds the Sydney Sixers and Perth Scorchers play the Qualifier game. In a format the same as used by the IPL, the winners of the Qualifier match advance straight to the final, while the losers have to play another game
Outright prices for the winner of the tournament are as follows
Perth Scorchers 6/5
Sydney Sixers 13/8
Sydney Thunder 11/2
Brisbane Heat 7/1
The front two of course are short as on Saturday they either win and reach the final or lose and get a second chance against a side they’ve finished above in the table. Perth are favourites having won 8 of their last ten group matches.
However I regard the Sixers as the value of the outright betting with a line up that won last year’s competition then followed up to win 9 of 14 group games this time round featuring a number of global T20 specialists from Dan Christian (also of Notts), Carlos Braithwaite and the bowlers Steve O’Keefe and Ben Dwarhuis who together have taken 33 wickets in the BBL to date this season. In the batting line up there is the familiar figure of James Vince, and Josh Phillippe and Jordan Silk have combined for over 700 runs so far in the tournament
I wouldn’t have them as anything more than marginal underdogs for the qualifier, and good favourites to win the “challenger” semi final were they to lose the first match.
15 points Sydney Sixers to win the Big Bash League at 13/8 generally
Change of Plans
The recent Australia-India test series will go down as one of the best. Having been bowled out for 36 in the first test India won two and drew one of the next three tests including in the final game in Brisbane where Australia hadn’t lost since the 1980s, chasing down 330 on the last day, for what looks like a significant series win because of the circumstances surrounding it.
India were missing Kohli on paternity leave plus seven others with injuries and then no fewer than seven of the touring squad were injured mid-tour. Only two of the squad managed to play in all four Tests of the series. The bowling attack that played the final test included net bowlers they brought on tour to keep their batsmen in trim. Two of the five were making their debuts, the other three had played four Test matches and taken 11 wickets between them.
Clearly India have strength in depth, but now India and the BCCI have developed the system to go with that. India have developed a successful ‘A’ team programme led by the Rahul Dravid that is producing a pipeline of young talent, much of which is introduced in the IPL in their teens. The IPL is the wealthiest of the global cricket competitions, bringing in a third of the BCCI's annual turnover and more than both the English and Australian cricket boards on its own even before COVID reduced revenue for the latter.
England now head to India for a four test series with a formidable task with India’s best players back.
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If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £42,703.40 All bets have an ROI +2.39%
A £4000 bank betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £46,703.40 a 1068% increase
The Road to Riches: Weekend of 23rd-24th January
The Road to Riches: Weekend of 23rd-24th January
Coming up this weekend
- Football, the FA Cup fourth round
- Horse Racing, Over the jumps at Ascot, Haydock and Taunton and on the all-weather at Newcastle
- Cricket, The second test match between England and Sri Lanka in Galle continues
- Golf, the American Express Championship on the USPGA and the Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship
Free tip
Big Bash League: Melbourne Stars v Perth Scorchers Saturday 8.15am GMT at the MCG
The Stars are 3rd after 11 games with a 5-6 win-loss record and in a tight scrap for a play off place.
They host the Perth Scorchers who have risen to second in the table with six wins from 10 games to date, all coming after four losses to start the season
The Stars feature very strong line up of domestic players, one of whom is the experienced international all-rounder Marcus Stoinis.
Stoinis tops the run charts for the team with 370 runs in 11 in 10 games, opening the batting. He leads from Glenn Maxwell with 313 runs, the only two batsmen above 200 runs for the Stars this season.
Stoinis has hit form in the second half of the eleven games scoring successively 97*, 34, 47, 13, 43 then 37 in the Melbourne Derby on Wednesday. He is a justified favourite in the Melbourne Stars Top batsman market
10 points Marcus Stoinis Top Melbounre Stars batsman at 2/1 with Betfred and William Hill
Change of Plans
In Rugby Union, the final two rounds of European pool matches that were postponed two weeks ago week will not be rearranged. The games were set to take place over the last two weekends but following a COVID related directive from the French government the two remaining rounds of pool games scheduled for this month were cancelled.
It’s believed there was much anger that eight Bayonne players tested positive following the pre-Christmas game against Leicester. The European Cup governing body reacted by stating their updated protocols would now more closely follow the measures which the French national league uses, but that has not been enough to convince officials in France and instead the Champions Cup and Challenge Cup will go straight to a knockout format in April, likely in a last-16 based off the table before the postponement. European Cup organisers (EPCR) are set to announce the revamped structure of the competitions in the coming week.
It was decided by all three domestic leagues [Premiership, Top 14 and Pro14] that the European tournaments would be completed in April and May before the finals weekend scheduled for the weekend of 22 May in Marseille.
Six Nations officials will hold urgent talks with the French government on Monday after the championship was placed into doubt by the decision, though the French currently intend to fulfil at least the first fixture and have named a six nations squad. Furthermore the reverberations of the disruption are also likely to put further pressure on the British and Irish Lions tour of South Africa in July and August which is in serious doubt.
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Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £42,703.40 All bets have an ROI +2.39%
A £4000 bank betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £46,703.40 a 1068% increase
The Road to Riches: Weekend of 16-17th January
Coming up this weekend
- Football, the Premier League returns, including Liverpool v Manchester United
- Horse Racing, Over the jumps at Warwick and Market Rasen and on the all-weather at Kempton and Lingfield
- Cricket, The first test match between England and Sri Lanka in Galle continues
- Golf, the Sony Open in Hawaii
Free tip
Big Bash League: Sydney Sixers v Perth Scorchers, Canberra, Saturday 7.40am
The Perth Scorchers were renowned as one of the most innovative T20 teams when Justin Langer was head coach and they won three titles and finished runners up twice. There has been upheaval since both on and off the field
This season the Scorchers started poorly with a no result and three losses in their first four games. They have then won five games in a row to move towards post-season qualification, currently sitting in thirds place in the league table.
My eye here is on the Scorchers batting line-up where Englishmen Jason Roy and Liam Livingstone open the batting. Roy especially is the definition of a “boom bust” cricketer, he’ll come off from time to time but often won’t, meaning a player coming in 3 or 4 will frequently get the majority of the 20 overs to compile a score.
Both Roy and Livingstone have only one 50 in 6 appearances this season, consistency is not their forte.
It is though the hallmark of 33 year old Colin Munro who has been batting at three. A big hitting New Zealander, he missed out on a New Zealand national team T20 contract so headed to the BBL and the Scorchers amongst a number of T20 franchises he has played for in various leagues around the world
Much like the rest of the side Munro started the BBL season slowly but has hit form with three successive 50s in his last three appearances. He is the top Scorchers run scorer this season and has faced the most balls. He missed the win over the Hobart Hurricanes on Tuesday with a short term leg injury but should be back for this game against a Sixers side sitting at the top of the table with seven wins in ten games.
10 points Colin Munro Top Perth Scorchers batsman at 7/2 William Hill,100/30 Bet365
In the Tank.
In week 17 of the NFL against Washington the Philadelphia Eagles had nothing to play for, while a win would clinch a division title and play-off berth for the Football Team. However, an Eagles victory would have put the New York Giants in the post-season instead of Washington.
The controversy came when (since sacked) Eagles head coach Doug Pederson benched starting quarterback Jalen Hurts in the second half for Nate Sudfeld after Hurts had ran for a couple of touchdowns. Washington won and the Giants missed the play-offs. For the Eagles the loss secured the sixth overall pick in this year’s NFL Draft; a victory would have dropped them to ninth.
The Eagles had good reasons to “tank”. It is possible the value of losing the game for the Eagles was equivalent to a second-round pick based on the compensation for trades moving from 9 to 6 in previous drafts.
There is now talk that the NFL should introduce a draft lottery, such as those run in the NBA and NHL. Until the advent of analytics teams in the NFL had a predominant “every game matters” philosophy. It is no coincidence the Eagles, celebrated for using analytics on their Super Bowl run three years ago, are the team that appeared to tank most obviously.
There is a logic to trading away veteran talent and accruing draft capital if you are not in contention for the play-offs. There is also logic to bad teams trying to finish with the worst record when a rare quarterback talent like Trevor Lawrence or Andrew Luck is in the next draft.
A lottery is designed to limit, but not completely negate, the purpose of the draft: to reward the worst teams. The league needs to randomise enough that the marginal benefit to losing a game goes down. The NBA already has one for all the teams who don’t make the play-offs, but it is weighted so that the worst team still has the best chance of getting the top pick. Having a true lottery, where all the non-play-off teams are put into a hat and their Draft order is drawn out at random, could virtually cut out tanking.
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Monthly subs are £50 a month and can be cancelled at any time. You can sign up here.
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £42,703.40 All bets have an ROI +2.39%
A £4000 bank betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £46,703.40 a 1068% increase
The Road to Riches: Weekend of 9th-10th January
The Road to Riches: Weekend of 9th-10th January
Coming up this weekend
- Football, the FA Cup 3rd round
- Horse Racing, Over the jumps at Chepstow, Kempton and Wincantion and on the all-weather at Chelmsford City and Lingfield
- Cricket, The Big Bash League in Australia continues
- Golf, next week the Sony Open in Hawaii
- Tennis, the Antalya and Delray Beach Opens
Free tip
FA Cup 3rd round match Newport v Brighton Sunday 7.45pm
The annual quest to find an FA Cup upset at a price resumes! Newport are second in League two, having lost only 4 of 20 league games this season. COVID has of course affected all lower league sides but prior to that Newport had been able to capitalise on cup runs in recent years to strengthen the squad to be in contention in the league.
I often look out for Newport, not just because of good cup form over several seasons but because if drawn at home, at the dual use Rodney parade, conditions can be a real leveller. The ground, home also to the Dragons rugby franchise in the Pro 14 holds under 8,000 for football. It is basic, and a planned relaying of the pitch was postponed when the pandemic hit. Last week’s league game was postponed as the surface was frozen.
Of course Brighton should be favourites. However they have no league wins in 8 games and have slipped to one place above the relegation zone. The cup cannot be their priority, rotation is assured . Over the Christmas period they rotated in the second of the three games over the holidays, at home to Arsenal and I was struck by the drop off between the first choice side and their replacements.
With Newport readily available at 11/2+, its of interest.
10 points Newport to beat Brighton at 6/1 with William Hill. 11/2 with Betfred, BetVictor and BetfairSportsbook
The Jacksonville Jaguars
With the New York Jets winning two games at the back end of the season the Jaguars with 1 win and 15 losses in the just finished regular season secured the number one draft pick in the April 2021 draft. They now look to appoint a new general manager and a new coach ahead of that.
For a side that has one winning season in the last twelve, and has won 42 games in ten years this job is regarded as probably the best one in this upcoming off-season cycle, and not just because this is the first time they will have the first overall pick. Why is this?
- Multiple draft picks in the 1st,2nd,4th,5th and 7th rounds. 11 altogether including 4 in first two rounds
- Second least cap commitments for 2021 with over $100m in projected available cap space, giving them the ability to be a player in free agency too
- Patient ownership (only two general managers and four head coaches despite the poor records of the last decade)
- A “Once in a decade” Quarterback prospect Trevor Lawrence is in the draft
- A Young roster with talent, particularly at wide receiver for Lawrence to come in and work with
All of these factors mean Jacksonville has everything that’s needed to build a perennial contender and they should be considering blockbuster hires at both positions. Whoever is appointed has to lead the team to drafting better. None of the first round picks selected before 2019 are still on the roster and only 2 of the last 14 have made the Pro bowl whilst on the roster, and this mostly from selections made in the top ten picks of the draft.
Now is the time to appoint well, draft well to amass talent and become competitive on a consistent basis.
StattoBets Dave Monthly Subscription
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Monthly subs are £50 a month and can be cancelled at any time. You can sign up here.
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £42,703.40 All bets have an ROI +2.39%
A £4000 bank betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £46,703.40 a 1068% increase
