Weekly Articles "Road to Riches" by Rich 'Tighty' Prew
The Road to Riches Weekend of 26th-27th September
Coming up this weekend
- Horse Racing, on the flat at Chelmsford City, Chester, Haydock, Newmarket and Ripon and over the jumps at Market Rasen
- Football, the new Premier League season continues featuring Liverpool v Arsenal
- Tennis, the start of the French Open
- Rugby Union the European Champions Cup Semi Finals on Saturday
- Formula One, the Russian Grand Prix in Sochi
- Golf, the Corales Puntacana Resort and Club Championship 2020 on the USPGA
- Cricket, the IPL continues
Free tip
Exeter v Toulouse, European Champions Cup Rugby Semi Final Saturday 3.30pm
Crunch time for the Toulouse ante-post bet and it is going to be a tough ask with Exeter the likely English Gallagher Premiership Champions at a difficult place to visit even in the COVID era.
Exeter have only lost five games all season and in the European Quarter final weren’t at their best but still accounted for Northampton 38-15. Exeter are a settled side with the flair of Hogg, Nowell and Slade outside a very strong forward unit and in back-rowers Vermuelen and Simmons two tp quality players in great form.
Toulouse have a decent chance though. Ulster were unlucky with early injuries but never looked like getting close to the French, eventually losing 36-8. Like Exeter in their quarter Toulouse were not at their best for long spells of the match. Some of their passing and handling was well below the levels we saw in their 2019 Top 14 title year. However when it clicked Toulouse looked sensational and in scrum half Antoine Dupont and the wing Cheslin Kolbe they have two true “x-factor” players.
It is likely they will be fitter up front and sharper behind against Exeter. Whereas the Premiership clubs had played seven games post lockdown, the French have managed no more than two and Toulouse will improve from their quarter-final win.
I see two particular problems for the French. Firstly their very big pack are vulnerable around the fringes. Ulster exploited this at times, Exeter will do so more. Secondly they choose to have Ramos kicking goals rather than Ntamack the fly half and kicker for the national side. Every point is going to matter and I see Ntamack as the more reliable kicker
Exeter are 8/13 outright, Toulouse 7/5 and +3 on the handicap. It’s tempting to recommend Toulouse but I expect Exeter to win narrowly
10 Points Exeter to beat Toulouse by 1-12 points at 2.8 on the Betfair Exchange, 17/10 on the Sportsbook and 8/5 with Betfred
Injured Reserve
The sheer rate of injuries in the first two weeks of the new NFL season has been eye-opening even by the standards of a sport with such physical contact. There has been more impact in PR terms this season as injuries have affected so many star players. Last Sunday alone saw 49ers quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo and defensive end Nick Bosa, Broncos quarterback Drew Lock and Giants running back Saquon Barkley all left their games in the first half. Bosa and Barkley are out for the season. After the games it was confirmed that running back Christian McCaffrey is also out for multiple weeks. In week one notable names such as Michael Thomas, George kittle were injured too.
In terms of percentage of the salary cap out injured Denver, San Francisco and Dallas are currently worst affected though the changed IR rules for this season – players on injured reserve can return after three weeks – does at least give some greater flexibility. Torn ACLs are the highest incidence of injuries with the emphasis on fast twists and turns especially at the skill positions.
Why might this be? Four pre-season games wouldn't have prevented all of these injuries, of course though preseason reps would have better prepared the body for type of hits regularly sustained in football games. The absence of a full eight month off-season programme through to training camps might be more significant where by week two the impact of asking players to play 150 snaps at full pelt within seven days after playing no live reps for more than eight months. There is even unhappiness at the state of some of the field conditions around the league, for example in New York’s MetLife Stadium.
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If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £45,054.80 All bets have an ROI +2.64%
A £4000 bank betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £49,034.80 a 1126% increase
The Road to Riches Weekend of 19th-20th September
Coming up this weekend
- Horse Racing, on the flat at Catterick, Chelmsford City, Newbury, Newmarket and Wolverhampton
- Football, the new Premier League season continues featuring Chelsea v Liverpool
- Rugby Union, the European Champions Cup Quarter finals
- Golf, the US Open at Winged Foot on the USPGA and the Portugal Open on the European tour
- Cricket, the delayed IPL season starts on Sunday
Free tip
European Champions Cup Rugby Quarter Finals
Toulouse v Ulster Sunday 12.30pm
Seemingly a long time ago this column put up Toulouse each-way ante-post for the tournament at 9-1 (two places paid)
In their group last Autumn Toulouse won all six games to earn the third seed for the knockout stages
Ulster finished 2nd to Clermont in their group with 5 wins out of 6 games to earn the 6th seed
The winner of this quarter-final faces the formidable task of probably playing runaway Gallagher Premiership leaders Exeter in the semi-finals. Exeter host Northampton in another Quarter final this weekend.
On their resumption after the COVID suspensions Toulouse have played two games in the French top 14, losing narrowly to at Clermont 33-30 before beating La rochelle 39-23 at home last weekend
Ulster reached the Pro 14 final winning 22-19 in Edinburgh with the last kick of the game then on Saturday lost the final 27-5 to Leinster
Ulster are a solid side, well coached with several key players notably the wing Jacob Stockdale, scrum half John Cooney and Iain Henderson the second row who is now back from injury after seven months out
It’s unlikely they will go toe to toe with Toulouse away from home for 80 minutes though and this is of course reflected in outright odds of Toulouse 1/4 Ulster 4/1. Toulouse are -12 on the point spread.
In the winning margin market Toulouse at 1-12 points is my play. Ulster will scrap and defend mightily and whilst I would expect Toulouse to be stronger, I don’t see this being too one-sided
10 points Toulouse to win by 1-12 points 3.15 on Betfair 9/4 Sportsbook 21/10 PaddyPower (13/8 Betfred)
Autumn Rugby Championship
A new eight-team rugby tournament will be played in Europe this November and December. The Autumn Nations Cup will involve the Six Nations teams – England, France, Ireland, Italy, Scotland and Wales – as well as Fiji and Georgia. It will take place over four successive weekends from 13 November to 6 December, with the eight teams split into two pools of four. Group A features England, Georgia, Ireland and Wales while Group B comprises France, Scotland, Italy and Fiji.
Teams will play the other nations in their pool in a round-robin format before a finals weekend where the winners of each group will play each other, as will the runners-up and so on to determine final rankings.
The tournament will kick off with Ireland hosting Wales at the Aviva Stadium on Friday 13 November. The following day England will play Georgia at Twickenham and Italy will face Scotland, while on Sunday 15 November France will play Fiji.
The tournament is an alternative to the traditional and lucrative autumn international season where the big Southern Hemisphere sides come to Europe each November, avoided this year due to COVID considerations. Fiji can’t turn down the financial benefit though. This is an opportunity for Georgia on the big international stage particularly given the poor performances of Italy in the Six Nations over many years and calls for the Italians to be dropped from the tournament
Every game, except Ireland’s home matches against Wales and Georgia, will be shown live on Amazon Prime. Channel 4 will also show three matches live on free-to-air TV – Ireland v Wales, England v Ireland and Ireland v Georgia – as well as highlights from all four rounds.
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Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £45,054.80 All bets have an ROI +2.64%
A £4000 bank betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £49,034.80 a 1126% increase
The Road to Riches Weekend of 12th-13th September
Coming up this weekend
- Horse Racing, on the flat at Bath, Chelmsford City, Chester, Doncaster, Lingfield and Musselburgh
- Football, the start of the new Premier League season
- Cricket, the start of the England v Australia ODI series at Old Trafford
- Tennis, the final weekend of the US Open
- Golf, the Safeway Open on the USPGA and the Portugal Masters on the European tour
- Formula One, the Toscana Grand Prix at Mugello
Free tip
Premier League relegation Market
A new season starts this weekend. I wanted to put up what I think is an outstanding ante-post value bet in the relegation market, one which at worst I would regard as a trading position. Also an early disclaimer, I support this team, but there is no emotional hedge here.
Leicester City are 40/1 in a few places in the relegation market. For a side that finished 5th last season you might think that this is as unlikely as the price suggests. I wanted to make an alternative case.
Once the Premier League returned from lockdown, the mini table in the nine games to the end of the season showed Leicester in 16th with 2 wins in their nine games. In fact the worsening of form began last Christmas. Beyond the starting eleven, the squad lacked depth and a side that ran above expectation in xG terms whilst riding high until December then fell away when injuries exposed that from December onwards.
Leicester is also one of the sides most exposed to the financial consequences of COVID. The owners king Power core business is duty free in Asian airports, and revenue has been hard hit and yet to recover. The owners are of course a wealthy family, but there has been some corporate caution around spending plans in their interests outside the core.
The crisis has also come at a bad time for the club which is in the midst of expansion plans. A new £95m training ground is near completion, expansion of the stadium to a capacity of 42,000 is near approval at a near £100m cost. The club has refinanced loans to aid cash-flow and had already taken the decision not to sell the old training ground instead using it as a base for a new pro Ladies team.
All this helps explain how a club that has sold one marquee player each summer since winning the title cannot strengthen the squad as it would like from a playing perspective. After all £80m for Maguire was received in one payment last summer. There were no permanent arrivals in the January window. So far this summer, with Chilwell sold for up to £50m, there has been one arrival (Castagne from Atalanta, for £18m, a versatile replacement) and whilst more might follow with the window open into October, I certainly view a slow start as probable especially considering the squad is injury and suspension hit.
Of course were Leicester’s first choice team to remain intact with no injuries and suspensions let alone dips in form throughout a season, then all well and good. However a condensed schedule requiring rotation and appearances in the Europa league (play Thursdays, then turn round and play in the league on Sundays) mean that is unlikely.
At a big price, this strikes me as a bet to run with...
10 points Leicester City to be relegated at 40-1 Betfred, William Hill
Zero to Hero
From 2003 ( the season the current NFL divisional alignment began) through to last season 21 teams went from fourth to first in a division with at least once instance in 15 of the 17 seasons with 2014 and last season being the exceptions. Nearly half of those worst-to-first teams won four or fewer games the previous season.
Your annual reminder that a league operating a salary cap and a draft with the worst teams able to pick top talent ahead of the play-off teams from the season before at least gives the potential, allied with free agency spending and coaching changes, to go from also-ran to contender very quickly
Last season was an outlier as five of the eight 2018 division champions repeated their titles. The San Francisco 49ers (4-12 in 2018) and Green Bay Packers (6-9-1) did take noteworthy
Which of the eight last-place finishers from last season are best set up to turn-around quickly?
Cincinnati Bengals (28/1 to win the AFC North) – No. 1-overall pick Joe Burrow has brought high hopes of an improvement. Assuming the offensive line is at least competent, the offense has a lot of talent at the skill positions but it’s a tough division to suggest the Bengals will improve past the Ravens and the Steelers. 6 or so wins would be a step in the right direction.
Carolina Panthers (25/1 to win the NFC South ) – With a new head coach in Matt Rhule and a new QB in Teddy Bridgewater, the Panthers find themselves at a similar disadvantage in the NFC South with the rest of the division looking loaded behind Brady, Brees and Ryan. Carolina start 4 rookies on defense against these offenses.
Washington Football Team (25/1 to win the NFC East ) – Still a franchise in transition (off the field and on) but with much more talent than previously due to years of high draft picks particularly on defense. Whether this is another 3 or 4 win season or something approaching 8-8 will depend on QB Haskins in his second year.
Jacksonville Jaguars (25/1 to win the AFC South) – Probably the least likely of these eight teams to contend. Spent the summer trading away talent and collecting extra draft picks for the next stage of a rebuild in the 2021 draft
Los Angeles Chargers (9/1 to win the AFC West) Philip Rivers is gone but there’s a very talented roster still. Are they seriously contenders though with Tyrod Taylor game-manging at quarterback and in a division with Patrick Mahomes?
Miami Dolphins (9/1 to win the AFC East) – With the Patriots looking like a post-Brady transition, there is now a path for the Bills (most probably) and Dolphins (possibly) to win this division, finally. The Dolphins started lost their first seven games last year and won 5 of the last 9 after that since when they have invested heavily in free agency and had three first round draft picks in April.
Arizona Cardinals (8/1 to win the NFC West) – Year two of the rebuild here and as one of the shorter prices of these teams suggests with a couple of drafts under Kliff Kingsbury and a young Quarterback in place a winning record loos at least a possibility.
Detroit Lions (6/1 to win the NFC North) – After 6-10 and 3-12-1 seasons the Lions are a lot of people’s turnaround dark horses, with Stafford fit and what looks like a winnable division (give me the Packers though). Much to prove on the coaching staff though and the shortest price of any of these 2019 fourth place teams to go last to first in 2020
One against the “2019 the fourth place finisher” field at current prices? The Dolphins.
Week by week coverage of the 2020 NFL regular season by myself. The cost for all the write ups is £50 The season is underway. Last year we won +99.52 points with a ROI of +41.47%
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Monthly subs are £50 a month and can be cancelled at any time. You can sign up here.
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £45,054.80 All bets have an ROI +2.64%
A £4000 bank betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £49,034.80 a 1126% increase
The Road to Riches Weekend of 5th-6th September
The Road to Riches Weekend of 5th-6th September
Coming up this weekend
- Horse Racing, on the flat at Ascot, Haydock, Kempton, Thirsk and Wolverhampton and over the jumps at Stratford
- Football, UEFA Nations League Matches and the EFL Cup first Round
- Cricket, the start of the England v Australia T20 series
- Tennis, the US Open continues
- Golf, the Tour Championship at East Lake Golf Club on the USPGA and the Andulacia Masters on the European tour
- Formula One, the Italian Grand Prix at Monza
NFL 2020 (17 week regular season) starts next week
Week by week coverage of the 2020 NFL regular season by myself. The cost for all the write ups is £50 The season starts on Thursday Sep 10th. Last year we won +99.52 points with a ROI of +41.47%
Free tip
The 2020 Vitality T20 Blast
Surrey v Middlesex. Saturday 6.35pm
In the South Group the first of the London derbies takes place on Saturday evening. Both sides have been struggling in the early stages of the tournament. In Middlesex’s case there is an element of adverse variance at play. They were rained off having scored 185 against Essex and then tied with kent having scored 209 before losing to Sussex scoring 165 and failing to defend. At least their batting has been firing, particularly opener Steve Eskanazi.
In this truncated season Surrey have been struggling. Bottom of their Bob Willis Trophy Group in the blast they have been under-powered. For reasons ranging from England absences to injury they have 14 players missing and this has led to the introduction of a number of younger players, particularly bowlers, into the team where they are having to learn on the job.
Until Thursday Surrey, like Middlesex, had a tie, loss and a no result but in low-ish scoring games indicative of a lack of batting firepower in the short format. Amla is back, but isn’t a game changer now for example. They had the best of a rain affected match on Thursday night chasing 80 in 11 overs to beat Hampshire. Middlesex meanwhile defended 167 in beating Essex in a full 20 over match.
With Surrey’s selection problems, Middlesex look the stronger side to me, and aren't priced as favourites,the weekend weather forecast doesn’t indicate weather problems and the variance that a reduced game produces either.
11 points Middlesex to beat Surrey at 10/11 generally
A New Concorde
All ten teams in F1 have signed the new 2021 Concorde agreement, a contract between Formula 1, governing body the FIA and the teams which wish to compete in the F1 World Championship. which commits them to the series until 2025 which is an achievement given the sport’s history of politics and self-interest. It has been nicknamed a Robin Hood agreement because the new Concorde Agreement is, on one level, about taking from the richer teams and giving to the poorer teams.
Liberty Media outlined its desire for a more equal distribution of funds from the moment they took over the sport and they have delivered on that front with the first Concorde that they have negotiated.
They had two main targets
- Address the unequal revenue distribution
- Provide a more level playing field
They’ve achieved both: financially with the Concorde terms and a new budget cap (The cap will be set at $145m in 2021, dropping to $140m in 2022, then $135m for 2023–25. A further review will then take place to establish the ceiling for 2026 and beyond. Current spending for the biggest teams is thought to be over $400m) and with new technical regulations and a fresh set of sporting rules coming for 2022. Ahead of that the budget cap agreement has also introduced the concept of an increased allowance of aerodynamic research and development on a sliding scale based on a team’s position in the constructors’ championship. To be weighted in favour of reverse order of success, the intent is to close up the grid. It is set to be used in 2021 as the teams work on developing cars for 2022.
What does it mean for the racing in the short term? Not a lot but in the medium term the outlook for all teams has improved from a business perspective, and for many from a competitive one, too with a much reduced spending disadvantage likely to provide for closer racing
StattoBets Dave Monthly Subscription
Stattobets write ups, analysis and bets are available to monthly subscribers.
Monthly subs are £50 a month and can be cancelled at any time. You can sign up here.
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £45,054.80 All bets have an ROI +2.64%
A £4000 bank betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £49,034.80 a 1126% increase
The Road to Riches Weekend of 29th-30th August
Coming up this weekend
- Horse Racing, on the flat at Newmarket, Goodwood, Redcar and Windsor
- Football, the Community Shield, Arsenal v Liverpool
- Cricket, the second T20 International between England and Pakistan in Manchester and the T20 Blast starts next week
- Tennis, the US Open Next week
- Golf, the BW Championship on the USPGA and the UK Championship at the Belfry on the European tour
- Formula One, the Belgian Grand Prix at Spa
NFL 2020 (17 week regular season)
Week by week coverage of the 2020 NFL regular season by myself. The cost for all the write ups is £50 The season starts on Thursday Sep 10th. Last year we won +99.52 points with an amazing ROI +41.47%
Free tip
Cricket: The 2020 Vitality T20 Blast
The delayed tournament starts today and runs until the first weekend in October with finals day at Edgbaston.
A revised format is in operation for this year, with three regional groups of six teams each, playing ten games with the quarter-finals to follow. This compares to two groups of nine last year and 14 group games each. This shorter format, and the probability of plenty of weather affected matches this late into the summer and early autumn introduces higher variance into an already high variance competition. Just to add to the unpredictability, three venues will host multiple matches (for TV double header purposes) in Manchester, Leeds and the Oval such that a variety of teams won’t play a full complement of matches at their home grounds, others more than 50% at home.
You might see where this is going. The betting market is 7/1 the field (Notts ), 10/1 bar the top three (Notts, Sussex, Somerset) and each way terms are ½ 1,2. I am very much looking to find an unfancied, unfashionable outsider in the betting market given the variance factors at play. Another factor is the competition won’t contain many overseas players, levelling the playing field between big and smaller budget counties
I had two candidates, Derbyshire and Durham. Derbyshire made finals day last year, doing well in the Bob Willis trophy this year and resolutely ignored in betting markets at 25-1. The big problem here is that they play all 10 group games away from Derby but nonetheless they are fast improving and were it to be confirmed that the competition’s leading wicket taker last season, Ravi Rampaul, can make it back from Trinidad for Derbyshire, they’d be on my formal bet list
Durham meanwhile play 6 out of 10 matches at Chester-le-street. A side full of canny bowlers that suit difficult late season conditions and young batting talent notably Scott Steel and completely unconsidered in the market for a tournament where frankly much is unpredictable. They are without last season’s top scorer Darcy Short, but the price reflects that. They start with a tough game against Lancashire tonight in a match with bad weather expected.
5 points each way Durham 2020 Vitality T20 Blast at 33-1 (1/2 1,2) William Hill (28/1 BetVictor 25/1 generally)
CVC
There’s no doubting CVC’s growing influence in rugby following their investments in both the Gallagher Premiership and the Pro 14 as well as their prospective investment in the Six Nations.
As a young professional sport (1995) there is a lot of commercial potential. CVC are are a minority partner with 27% in both Premiership Rugby and the Pro14, with responsibility to drive success of the commercial side, and no involvement with sporting and regulatory decisions. CVC have invested more than £300m into rugby over the last 18 months. There is a requirement that the money is reinvested into the game rather than taken out as a dividend by the club owners.With hindsight, this project should help rugby survive the Covid pandemic and continue to build the sport over the next ten years.
Of course there are risks. The main cause of friction between the clubs and the RFU is access to players, as the RFU requires players to be released for international commitments. Unlike football, Premiership rugby continues uninterrupted through international windows, and so clubs lose their international players. This causes a conflict as the RFU request players availability, whilst the clubs want their international stars to be playing as much domestic rugby as possible in order to increase the chances of success on the field. It should be expected that if it is investing significantly, and the aim of its investment is to make a profitable return, CVC will want to drive a harder bargain with the RFU over the cost of player release for international windows. This would be a win-win for the clubs, achieving either more money from the RFU or better player availability. It might not be such a positive for player welfare though
As it did with Formula 1, CVC will be looking to make a profit on its investment. It will therefore likely be seeking to significantly increase the value of the Premiership and then sell it. While the initial investment windfall and the increased value are hugely positive for the clubs, the horizon post-sale is uncertain in terms of both ownership of the league and long-term financial security.
StattoBets Dave Monthly Subscription
Stattobets write ups, analysis and bets are available to monthly subscribers.
Monthly subs are £50 a month and can be cancelled at any time. You can sign up here.
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £45,054.80 All bets have an ROI +2.64%
A £4000 bank betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £49,034.80 a 1126% increase
