Weekly Articles "Road to Riches" by Rich 'Tighty' Prew
The Road to Riches: Weekend of 20th-21st February
Coming up this weekend
- Football, Premier League fixtures include Liverpool v Everton and Arsenal v Manchester City
- Horse Racing, Over the jumps at Ascot, Haydock and Wincanton and on the all-weather at Lingfield and Newcastle
- Cricket, the India-England test series continues in Ahmedabad next week
- Golf, the Genesis Invitational at the Riviera Country Club on the USPGA.
- Tennis, ATP Opens in Cordoba and Montpellier
Cheltenham 16th-19th March 2021
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Free tip
India v England 3rd Test, Ahmedabad starting Wednesday 24th February
With the series tied at 1-1 India and England move to Ahmedabad for the 3rd and 4th tests, the third test beginning next Wednesday. This is Ahmedabad’s 1st test since 2012 in a huge ground where the pitch used to play low and slow. This however has an added variable as it’s a Day/Night Pink ball test starting at 2pm local with around half the play either at twilight or under lights.
In one previous pink ball Test in India, albeit in Kolkota, no India spinners took a wicket in the win over Bangladesh. Typically the world over pink ball tests produce seam friendly conditions for at least part of the play and therefore here the pre-eminent skills of James Anderson and Jasprit Bumrah for their respective sides should be in play with both having been rested for the second test match in Chennai with an eye specifically on the Pink ball test
Of course we should still expect a toss bias in terms of the team batting first, but this far ahead of the game we can possibly expect a fresh pitch unlike the sandy turner produced for India to get back into the series in Chennai. Irrespective of that England were out-played anyway.
I am writing ahead of most sub-market prices being posted for India and England top bowler. The case for both Anderson and Bumrah in those respective markets is pretty clear: Anderson is still England’s best seamer at the age of 28 and his 3-17 in the second innings of the first test on a pitch offering him no help was a match-winning effort. Bumrah took three England wickets in the first innings of the same match. Both performances notable because over the course of the match spinners took 23 of the wickets to fall.
Betfred are up early and have Leach favourite over Anderson for Top England bowler. This looks odd for a first innings before the pitch wears and of course with the pink ball and probably not conditions favouring the spinners early on
10 points James Anderson Top England bowler at 11/4 with Betfred
Floodgates
The NFL lags behind other major US sports in terms of huge player trades. First round draft picks do get swapped in the NFL, but it’s been rare to see two players of significance traded in the same deal.
One of the big reasons why is the concept of dead salary cap NFL contracts often have big bonuses and clauses that made it punitive to the team to trade away a marquee player, especially early in the contract.
The Rams broke the norm by dealing Jared Goff to the Lions for Matthew Stafford in a swap of starting quarterbacks. The Rams included two future first-round picks and a third-round pick to provide Lions value to take on Goff’s contract and ease the impact on Stafford’s dead cap that Detroit carries forward. For the Rams, a side with a superb roster but probably without a Quarterback that could help them win a Superbowl, it’s a win now move. For the Lions, the start of a long term rebuild.
Now it seems more trades will follow. The Philadelphia Eagles are actively trying to trade Carson Wentz, and in doing so will incur a $33.8 dead salary cap hit for 2021, the biggest in NFL history and over double what the Lions are paying to not have Matthew Stafford playing QB in Detroit this year.
Teams have never shown a willingness to make that kind of move before. What the Rams did in sending Goff to Detroit may have opened the floodgates to other big moves.If the Houston Texans ever decide to acquiesce to Deshaun Watson’s desire to leave the team, they’ll also have to carry some major dead cap money. The same is true of the rumours out there about the Raiders and Derek Carr or the 49ers and Jimmy Garoppolo and even Russell Wilson of the Seahawks is agitating. But the Lions proved willing to take on the huge contract for a hefty sum of draft capital. The unusual move seems to be a catalyst for other moves now..
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The Road to Riches: Weekend of 13-14th February
Coming up this weekend
- Football, Premier League fixtures include Manchester City v Tottenham and Leicester City v Liverpool
- Rugby Union, the Six Nations Championship continues
- Horse Racing, Over the jumps at Newbury and Warwick and on the all-weather at Lingfield and Wolverhampton
- Cricket, the India-England test series continues in Chennai
- Golf, the Pebble Beach Pro-Am on the USPGA.
- Tennis, the Australian Open continues
Cheltenham 16th-19th March
We have added our Cheltenham four day package to our homepage. Get all of Neil’s write-ups together with the details of all our bets. The full package is available for £199 here
We are very pleased to announce details of our Cheltenham Festival Preview Zoom Dinner Sat March 13th 2021
Free tip
The 2021 Six Nations Scotland v Wales Saturday 4pm
In their famous victory last weekend Scotland dominated England, who played like a team of complete strangers and a number of major players, mostly from Saracens, appeared to be short of match practice.
Whether we are talking about line-out, scrum or the breakdown Scotland won the battles. Scotland were more disciplined, more physical and won the aerial battle too. England made zero clean breaks, an incredible statistic over 80 minutes.
I began wanting to back Scotland about two years ago, which was too early given a number of false dawns since but the signs were there whether from the brilliance of Hogg and Russell to the development of a back row to compete at break-downs. What is new in the last nine months is the maturing of a front five that gives the whole side a solidity, particularly in the scrum, that it previously lacked.
They have now won four games in a row in the Six Nations. In the autumn they won in Wales for the first time in 18 years. On Saturday they won at Twickenham for the first time in 38 years. Although this year they have to go to Paris in this Championship they do have three of their remaining four games at home and you have to say they are Championship contenders.
Wales entered the Championship on a sustained run of poor fun and huffed and puffed to beat a 14 man Ireland side, a man up for nearly 65 minutes. There really wasn’t much sign of improvement in their attacking threat until the extra man paid in the last quarter of the game. A number of their players also haven’t had much rugby and they suffered a number of injuries in the game to Lydiate, Amos and Johnny and Tomas Williams all of whom missing this game. North and Navidi then pulled out during the week. Scotland have had to make three changes too.
A fundamental problem is a number of the stalwart Welsh players are a year or two past their best and a more thorough rebuilding is probably due. At least in Louis Rees-Zammit the winger they have a real star emerging, if they can be creative enough to get him enough ball
Outright prices are Scotland 4/9 Wales 2/1 with Scotland -5.5 the handicap quote, up from -4 on the team news. With the exception of Italy, defences in this championship are really well marshalled. I expect Scotland to win by 1-2 scores
12 points Scotland to win by 1-12 points at 6/4 with Betfred 2.46 on the Betfair Exchange
Squeeze
As the Six nations moves into it’s second weekend but behind closed doors, rugby is dealing with the dual problems of COVID and the legal actions taken by former players diagnosed with early-onset dementia. Meanwhile the British Lions debate their options for the summer tour of South Africa ranging from going ahead as planned, postponing, cancelling, moving the tour to UK venues or even accepting Australia’s offer to host.
Of those options postponing the tour until next year was shot down by England and Ireland who are due to visit Australia and New Zealand in 2021 both tours with lucrative fees attached. The alternative to cancelling the Lions tour is to stage the tour in Britain in the hope that by July spectators would be allowed in grounds thanks to the vaccine roll-out in the UK. While the prospect of the Lions playing at home has not proved popular with supporters it is estimated it would earn the Lions and South Africa up to 50% more. At a time of budget cuts being made by unions and clubs throughout the world, that is attractive to decision-makers.
Meanwhile the impact of Covid continues. Domestic unions and clubs cut wages and made non-playing staff redundant in 2020. The Autumn Nations Cup, a tournament created after the tours to Europe by the major southern-hemisphere unions were called off, was set up to keep the grassroots game alive in Europe. Without the income from Amazon for that tournament, all the unions would have had to make even greater cuts to their spending on the grassroots. However it was devalued by the Top 14 clubs in France, who threatened court action to prevent their players being released for all of France’s six matches in the campaign. They settled with the French Rugby Federation so that no player made more than three appearances
Meanwhile the RFU has hugely reduced its investment in the grassroots after posting substantial losses in the last year. Those cuts and the lack of rugby for 11 months threatens amateur and schools participation as does the concussion lawsuit.
Given these myriad of factors playing out simultaneously and the ever conflicting demands of the clubs and the International federations there still remains little sign of the various stakeholders aligning the sport and maximise its potential.
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A £4000 bank betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £46,703.40 a 1068% increase
The Road to Riches: Weekend of 6th-7th February
Coming up this weekend
- Football, Premier League fixtures include Liverpool v Manchester City
- NFL, Super-bowl LV in Tampa Bay on Sunday night
- Rugby Union, the start of the Six Nations Championship
- Horse Racing, Over the jumps at Musselburgh, Sandown and Wetherby and Doncaster and on the all-weather at Kempton and Lingfield
- Cricket, the start of the India-England test series in Chennai and The Big Bash League Final
- Golf, the Waste Management Phoenix Open at Scottsdale on the USPGA and the Saudi International on the European tour
Free tip
The 2021 Six Nations
Only finally confirmed as taking place as late as this week, this weekend sees the start of the 2021 Six Nations. The teams go into the tournament with the rarity of recent form against each other to look at after the Autumn Nations Cup won by England. England beat France to the Six Nations title last year and go into the 2021 renewal as sort as Evens to win again ahead of France at 5/2 and Ireland at 7/2. In the continuing COVID environment there could be issues ahead with scheduling and team selection for all the sides.
England go into the Six Nations with a long injury list in the forwards including Underhill, Mako Vunipola and Launchbury, also with Sinckler suspended and Marler opting out. What England do have though is unparalleled strength in depth though were the absences to include the likes of Itoje, Owen Farrell or Youngs at any point, prospects become much murkier. They might start slow, a number of key players haven't had any rugby in a month, and they are not going to eviscerate sides but are very tough to beat.
France of course now have a great captain, masses of young talent and particularly on the defensive side of the ball, world class coaching with Sean Edwards. They do though have three of their five games away from home this Championship, notably including at Twickenham
Ireland were top of the table going into the final round of games in 2020 and are on the cusp on a transition from a range of veteran players towards a new generation but for now will be at least a difficult “out” for all their opponents. In terms of their prospects for this title, they have only two games at home, but those games are against England and France.
Wales have only won 3 of their last ten games under Pivac, struggling to develop an attacking style to unlock teams, a problems for several years.
Scotland continue to develop, have Russell and Hogg back in tandem and an improving forward pack. They though have to go to Twickenham and Paris. Winning the three home games is a decent possibility.
For Italy, one win would be progress but continues to look unlikely no matter the young talent coming through as the rest of the teams improve alongside them
It would be quite rare for me to back England for a Grand Slam, for which the firms have them 2-1 + going into the Championship. Three of their first four games are at home: Scotland, Italy, and France, with one away trip to Wales. There is every chance that they travel to Dublin for the final round unbeaten. Of course that will not be easy, with the hosts potentially having the opportunity to deny England the slam but with the brilliant Irish crowd almost certain to still be absent (at least in large numbers) I would have England to win based on their brilliant defence in what we could expect to be an attritional game .
15 points England to win the Grand Slam at 3.7 on the Betfair Exchange 12/5 with William Hill, 11/5 Betfred
A star trade beckons
The rarity of a blockbuster NFL trade is approaching in the off-season after the Houston Texans quarterback DeShaun Watson, unhappy with the team ownership and about being left out of the team’s messy hiring process for a new head coach despite promises to the contrary, has requested a trade
A three-time pro-bowler, in his fourth NFL season just finished on a bad four win team, Watson won the NFL passing yards title. A genuine franchise quarterback, only 25 years old and amazing that Houston allowed relations to deteriorate to this point and it sets up what will be a hot trade market.
Trading Watson would bring the Texans a big haul of draft picks (for a side that has spent several years jettisoning them to acquire veteran talent) but unless the trade also secured a young franchise quarterback in return they could spend the highest pick acquired on a successor to Watson.
Undoubtedly if forced to trade him the Texans would like to trade Watson into the NFC, out of their conference but a significant factor in negotiations will be that Watson has a no trade clause in his contract. He can veto any destination he does not want to get traded to.
The list of candidate teams that will be interested will be long. For most the Jets and Dolphins will be at the top of the list
The Jets acquired first-round picks in each of the next two drafts when they traded safety Jamal Adams to the Seattle Seahawks. They pick at No. 2 overall this year and own two first-rounders (their own and Seattle’s) in 2021 and 2022. With a new Head coach and Sam Darnold approaching the end of his rookie deal, they have both the draft assets and motivation to be in the hunt here, plus they operate in a huge media market for Watson’s commercial prospects.
The Dolphins currently own two first-round picks in the 2021 NFL Draft, including the No. 3 overall selection they acquired from the Texans in the Laremy Tunsil trade, and four total picks in the top 50. They also have quarterback Tua Tagovailoa, the fifth overall pick last year, who could be added to a potential Watson package. Their roster is ready to win now being quite late in their rebuilding process, apart from some offensive skill positions such as wide receiver.
Any viable trade proposal for Watson likely would need to include several first-round draft choices. The Dolphins and Jets can fulfill those requirements while also offering Houston a coveted top-three pick.
Amongst other teams candidates include:
The San Francisco 49ers who have Jimmy Garoppolo under contract for 2021, who could be offered as part of the trade. The new Houston General manager drafted Garoppolo as part of the Patriots front office in 2014.
Washington Football Team started four different quarterbacks this season including three over the final three games, with Taylor Heinicke taking the field for a playoff game after joining the roster last month. There is no obvious starting quarterback on the roster. Washington’s defense has evolved into one of the league’s top units but they might not have the draft capital to compete in the auction without throwing in some starter quality players.
In reality there is little chance that the Texans would trade to a team in their own division but the Indianapolis Colts would be an obvious candidate otherwise. They’re in the market for their quarterback of the future. They’ve got young talent on offense in running back Jonathan Taylor and receiver Michael Pittman Jr. They’ve got one of the best offensive lines in football. And they own the fourth-most salary cap space heading into this offseason, so they have the resources needed to absorb Watson’s contract. A potential Watson-to-Indianapolis trade would immediately make the Colts a Super Bowl contender.
Finally the Denver Broncos have a new general manager, a top ten draft pick this year and good amount of salary cap space available and a young quarterback in Drew Lock where the jury is still out. Most attractive to Watson may be the young trio of wide receivers, Courtland Sutton, Jerry Jeudy and KJ Hamler, and young tight end Noah Fant. Perhaps the Broncos aren’t the “win now in a big market” opportunity that Watson seeks.
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Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £42,703.40 All bets have an ROI +2.39%
A £4000 bank betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £46,703.40 a 1068% increase
The Road to Riches: Weekend of 30th-31st January
Coming up this weekend
- Football, Premier League fixtures include Arsenal v Manchester United
- Horse Racing, Over the jumps at Cheltenham and Doncaster and on the all-weather at Kempton and Lingfield
- Cricket, The Big Bash League Play-Offs
- Golf, the Farmers Insurance Open at Torrey Pines on the USPGA and the Dubai Desert Classic
Free tip
Big Bash League Play-Offs
The 2020-21 Big Bash League Play-Offs began today where the 4th and 5th seeds Brisbane Heat and Adelaide Strikers played the eliminator game and the Heat won through to meet the 3rd seed Sydney Thunder in an effective semi-final on Sunday.
Saturday morning our time sees the first and second seeds the Sydney Sixers and Perth Scorchers play the Qualifier game. In a format the same as used by the IPL, the winners of the Qualifier match advance straight to the final, while the losers have to play another game
Outright prices for the winner of the tournament are as follows
Perth Scorchers 6/5
Sydney Sixers 13/8
Sydney Thunder 11/2
Brisbane Heat 7/1
The front two of course are short as on Saturday they either win and reach the final or lose and get a second chance against a side they’ve finished above in the table. Perth are favourites having won 8 of their last ten group matches.
However I regard the Sixers as the value of the outright betting with a line up that won last year’s competition then followed up to win 9 of 14 group games this time round featuring a number of global T20 specialists from Dan Christian (also of Notts), Carlos Braithwaite and the bowlers Steve O’Keefe and Ben Dwarhuis who together have taken 33 wickets in the BBL to date this season. In the batting line up there is the familiar figure of James Vince, and Josh Phillippe and Jordan Silk have combined for over 700 runs so far in the tournament
I wouldn’t have them as anything more than marginal underdogs for the qualifier, and good favourites to win the “challenger” semi final were they to lose the first match.
15 points Sydney Sixers to win the Big Bash League at 13/8 generally
Change of Plans
The recent Australia-India test series will go down as one of the best. Having been bowled out for 36 in the first test India won two and drew one of the next three tests including in the final game in Brisbane where Australia hadn’t lost since the 1980s, chasing down 330 on the last day, for what looks like a significant series win because of the circumstances surrounding it.
India were missing Kohli on paternity leave plus seven others with injuries and then no fewer than seven of the touring squad were injured mid-tour. Only two of the squad managed to play in all four Tests of the series. The bowling attack that played the final test included net bowlers they brought on tour to keep their batsmen in trim. Two of the five were making their debuts, the other three had played four Test matches and taken 11 wickets between them.
Clearly India have strength in depth, but now India and the BCCI have developed the system to go with that. India have developed a successful ‘A’ team programme led by the Rahul Dravid that is producing a pipeline of young talent, much of which is introduced in the IPL in their teens. The IPL is the wealthiest of the global cricket competitions, bringing in a third of the BCCI's annual turnover and more than both the English and Australian cricket boards on its own even before COVID reduced revenue for the latter.
England now head to India for a four test series with a formidable task with India’s best players back.
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Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £42,703.40 All bets have an ROI +2.39%
A £4000 bank betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £46,703.40 a 1068% increase
The Road to Riches: Weekend of 23rd-24th January
The Road to Riches: Weekend of 23rd-24th January
Coming up this weekend
- Football, the FA Cup fourth round
- Horse Racing, Over the jumps at Ascot, Haydock and Taunton and on the all-weather at Newcastle
- Cricket, The second test match between England and Sri Lanka in Galle continues
- Golf, the American Express Championship on the USPGA and the Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship
Free tip
Big Bash League: Melbourne Stars v Perth Scorchers Saturday 8.15am GMT at the MCG
The Stars are 3rd after 11 games with a 5-6 win-loss record and in a tight scrap for a play off place.
They host the Perth Scorchers who have risen to second in the table with six wins from 10 games to date, all coming after four losses to start the season
The Stars feature very strong line up of domestic players, one of whom is the experienced international all-rounder Marcus Stoinis.
Stoinis tops the run charts for the team with 370 runs in 11 in 10 games, opening the batting. He leads from Glenn Maxwell with 313 runs, the only two batsmen above 200 runs for the Stars this season.
Stoinis has hit form in the second half of the eleven games scoring successively 97*, 34, 47, 13, 43 then 37 in the Melbourne Derby on Wednesday. He is a justified favourite in the Melbourne Stars Top batsman market
10 points Marcus Stoinis Top Melbounre Stars batsman at 2/1 with Betfred and William Hill
Change of Plans
In Rugby Union, the final two rounds of European pool matches that were postponed two weeks ago week will not be rearranged. The games were set to take place over the last two weekends but following a COVID related directive from the French government the two remaining rounds of pool games scheduled for this month were cancelled.
It’s believed there was much anger that eight Bayonne players tested positive following the pre-Christmas game against Leicester. The European Cup governing body reacted by stating their updated protocols would now more closely follow the measures which the French national league uses, but that has not been enough to convince officials in France and instead the Champions Cup and Challenge Cup will go straight to a knockout format in April, likely in a last-16 based off the table before the postponement. European Cup organisers (EPCR) are set to announce the revamped structure of the competitions in the coming week.
It was decided by all three domestic leagues [Premiership, Top 14 and Pro14] that the European tournaments would be completed in April and May before the finals weekend scheduled for the weekend of 22 May in Marseille.
Six Nations officials will hold urgent talks with the French government on Monday after the championship was placed into doubt by the decision, though the French currently intend to fulfil at least the first fixture and have named a six nations squad. Furthermore the reverberations of the disruption are also likely to put further pressure on the British and Irish Lions tour of South Africa in July and August which is in serious doubt.
StattoBets Dave Monthly Subscription
Stattobets write ups, analysis and bets are available to monthly subscribers.
Monthly subs are £50 a month and can be cancelled at any time. You can sign up here.
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £42,703.40 All bets have an ROI +2.39%
A £4000 bank betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £46,703.40 a 1068% increase
