Weekly Articles "Road to Riches" by Rich 'Tighty' Prew
The Road to Riches: Weekend of 27th-28th March
The Road to Riches will be off next week, back for the weekend of 10th-11th April
Coming up this weekend
- Football, World Cup Qualifying matches
- Horse Racing, On the flat at Doncaster, over the jumps at Kelso and Newbury and on the all-weather at Kempton and
- Rugby Union, the final match of the Six Nations Championship
- Cricket, the India-England ODI series continues in Pune
- Formula One, the start of the new season with the Bahrain Grand Prix
- Golf, the WGC-Dell Matchplay in Austin, the Corales Championship in Punta Cana on the USPGA and the Kenya Savannah Classic on the European Tour.
- Tennis, ATP Miami Open
Aintree Festival Package
It’s only two weeks until the Grand National Festival on 8th-10th April. The full package of Neil Channing’s selections and write ups costs £99 and can be purchased here
Free tip
Six Nations France v Scotland Friday 8pm
France came back to beat Wales 32-30, scoring two tires in the last ten minutes to come from ten points behind to give them a shot at winning the Six nations title. Wales picked up a losing bonus point, which means to have any chance of winning the title France must defeat Scotland in this rescheduled match with an attacking bonus point, scoring four tries. It would then come down to points difference, which currently favours Wales 61 to 41.
For long periods of the Wales match France were second best, often trying to force attacking patterns and losing accuracy. Playing 14 against 13 in the last 10 minutes proved crucial. Nowadays with all the young talent that has been introduced to the team since 2020 France have combined their flair with discipline and game management they never had before and are winning these sorts of games. By the time they hit the 2023 World Cup at home, the team will be at its peak and a real threat to win the tournament.
Scotland meanwhile dispatched Italy scoring 8 tries and will have Russell back for this game. The presence of Russell, Hogg and the Scotland backs and an under-rated back row capable of slowing down France’s ball gives them a puncher’s chance but this French side will be going for it and it will be quite the task to stay in the game.
Here Scotland are limited to selecting five English-based players because of an agreement with the Premiership looking for a victory that would take them above Ireland and Friday's visitors into second place in the Six Nations table.
Whether France will win by 20+ points is the big issue. I expect them to score tries. However Scotland have the potential to do so too and ultimately I expect France to fall just short of a tournament winning margin in this game. France are 16 point favourites on the handicap. A Six day turnaround at the end of the tournament will probably assist attack over tired defence, so another high scoring game seems likely
Splitting the stakes around a winning margin just short of France winning the Championship:
6 points France to win by 16-20 points at 6/1 Betfred,
6 points France to win by 11-15 points at 13/2 Betfred, William Hill
Rotation
For the England cricket team, the issue of player workload looks set to reach a critical point at the end of the year as England face the prospect of close to four months away from home on successive tours of Pakistan, Bangladesh, India and Australia.
The first two are a build-up to the T20 World Cup, then the Ashes tour follows soon after. Both are England’s top two priorities this year so choosing the right tours for all-format players such as Ben Stokes, Jos Buttler and Jofra Archer to rest next winter becomes almost impossible.
A host of key players missed the recent 3-1 defeat in India, including Buttler for all but the first Test, while Stokes and Archer missed the two Tests in Sri Lanka in January. The fact is these players are being rested for Test cricket in order to play in a franchise tournament.
Some players will play a full IPL straight after the white-ball leg of England’s tour of India and are also seemingly set to miss the first Test series of the home summer against New Zealand. Resting against burn-out seems unlikely to be successful when players on Test contracts understandably choose to put their bodies on the line for a payday in the IPL.
Stokes, Buttler or Archer are all are paid close to a £1m a year by England and will be key to their hopes in the T20 World Cup and the Ashes. Yet there is little else England can do under the circumstances. It seems certain all of the IPL contingent will be rested for Tests this summer, including in the marquee series against India. At least, from England’s point of view, Archer’s elbow injury problems mean he is likely to miss the IPL
With England leaving for a T20 tour of Pakistan in early October, the T20 World Cup finishing in mid-November and the Ashes likely to conclude in the middle of January, there is next to no chance for a break in the first half of next winter and why England are backing their rotation policy.
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The Road to Riches: Weekend of 20th-21st March
Coming up this weekend
- Football, FA Cup Quarter Finals
- Horse Racing, Over the jumps at Fontwell, Kempton, Newcastle and Uttoxeter and on the all-weather at Wolverhampton
- Rugby Union, the final weekend of the Six Nations Championship
- Cricket, the India-England T20 series continues in Ahmedabad
- Golf, the Honda Classic at the PGA National on the USPGA and the Kenya Open.
- Tennis, ATP Miami Open
Free tip
Six Nations France v Wales Saturday 8pm
In France’s narrow loss at Twickenham last weekend we watched a match at a level above anything else seen so far in the Championship and the most exciting half of play we’ve seen in a long time in Northern Hemisphere International rugby.
France did fade in the last 20 minutes, which is somewhat of a habit, and indicative that they are not the complete package yet, being predominantly a young team but give it those few years until their home Rugby World Cup in 2023 and they are going to be serious contenders. Not only do they have multiple play-makers and match-winners from 9-15 but they re led superbly and have more talent up front in this generation than in previous teams of the last decade.
France have got plenty to play for here. With their postponed game against Scotland yet to be played, they are still able to win both games and potentially win the Championship.
Wales were clinical in Rome, scoring 7 tries and in style and form a far cry from the side that lost 10 of their first 13 tests under Pivac and 7 out of 10 Tests in 2020. With four wins out of four in this Championship they are a win here away from one of the more surprising Grand Slams!
What is notable is that they have scored 17 tries in 4 games, albeit assisted by playing against 14 men twice, and helped by having a brilliant young finisher in Louis Rees-Zammit on the wing and with George North rejuvenated playing in the centre. Coming up against the French Shaun Edwards coached defense will be a big test.
The fact that Wales are going to have to raise their performance further is indicated by France being 1/3 outright and seven to eight point favourites here. I do expect them to win, and potentially this could be quite high scoring. France by a score or two looks reasonable.
10 points France to win by 1-12 points 2.9 on the Betfair Exchange 9/4 Betfair Sportsbook and 7/4 Betfred
CVC
CVC’s deal with the Six Nations is for a 14.3% share (an exact seventh share) that is worth £365 million. For the RFU, which receives the biggest payment, it equates to £95 million being paid over five years.
CVC has a slice of the combined shared commercial revenue from the six unions that make up the Six Nations and it can influence who the RFU and sell its TV rights and sponsorship to and the six unions have come together to roll their rights for their autumn Tests and the Six Nations into one.
CVC only has one vote in seven on commercial deals. So if, as is pretty much guaranteed, the new TV deal for the Six Nations takes some of the games away from free-to-air TV, this cannot be said to be CVC’s doing. It would require CVC to bring at least three of the unions with it to influence the outcome of a deal.
What the unions have done, in effect, is sold off a share of their future income for a large, more immediate payment presumably used to trigger growth in the game and fill the hole caused by Covid-19.
The single biggest increase in earnings for CVC and the unions is not going to be from the Six Nations Championship but, instead, from the autumn. In future years the Autumn Nations Cup will involve the big southern hemisphere nations and the tournament’s value will grow.
CVC will need to make Test rugby work harder and it believes it can do that with better marketing and use of data. It is widely recognised that the game’s personalities are hopelessly under-promoted. in the meantime, bought itself a lucrative and reliable income stream.
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Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £42,703.40 All bets have an ROI +2.39%
A £4000 bank betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £46,703.40 a 1068% increase
The Road to Riches: Weekend of 13th-14th March
Coming up this weekend
- Football, Premier League fixtures include Arsenal v Tottenham
- Horse Racing, Over the jumps at Ayr, Hereford and Sandown and on the all-weather at Chelmsford and Wolverhampton
- Rugby Union, the Six Nations Championship continues
- Cricket, the India-England T20 series continues in Ahmedabad
- Golf, the Players Championship at TPC Sawgrass on the USPGA.
- Tennis, ATP Opens in Dubai, Mexico and Monterrey
Cheltenham 16th-19th March 2021
Next week our Cheltenham four-day package, get all of Neil’s write-ups together with the details of all our bets. The full package is available for £199 here
Free tip
Six Nations, Scotland v Ireland Sunday 3pm
This should be a very close game. Scotland of course began the Championship with the huge underdog win at Twickenham and narrowly by a point at home to Wales playing with 14 men for most of the second half. With the Paris game postponed a fortnight ago they might be a bit undercooked but will be fresh with a side that looks genuinely competitive. The pack is not a weakness, the back row is tremendous and of course in Russell and Hogg the back line has some genuine class.
Ireland lost to Wales in Cardiff first up, playing an hour with 14 men, then lost at home to France before beating Italy 48-10 in Rome. Ireland remain a bit of an enigma, never quite playing a convincing attacking style that allows them to dominate against the top sides, a bit of a hangover from the Joe Schmidt era where a side at its peak got results with a very regimented approach but are they are experienced and nuggety and gradually introducing younger talent into the team.
The interesting thing here is that Scotland are home underdogs. Of course current circumstances mean there is a whole debate to be had about lack of home advantage for crowd-less games but it still raised my eyebrow.
I expect this to be a one score game, either way. Scotland are +2 on the handicap and outright Ireland are 8/11, William Hill offer Scotland at 5/4.
10 points Scotland to beat Ireland at 5/4 with William Hill
Changes
UEFA is considering plans to overhaul the first stage of the Champions League proper amid concerns that the competition's leading clubs often qualify from their groups with games to spare.
UEFA want to change the group stage in a way that would create more games (which is not going to be popular with clubs or their managers) but also more games that matter, hence providing greater revenue and more fan engagement. They are suggesting replacing the current system of eight mini-groups with one large league table for all the clubs involved in the group stage. They would then play ten games each and qualification for the knockouts would be determined by their league standing.
One of the options under consideration is that the Champions League could become 36 teams after the current broadcast contract expires in 2024, that enlarged group stage would see the first eight teams immediately qualify for the knockouts, and then the teams ranked ninth to 24th enter a playoff.
The Premier League is believed to have discussed the potential changes, in addition to a new proposal that could see as many as six English clubs qualify for the Champions League in the future.
The system would still determine qualification for all European tournaments by domestic league position (first to seventh for the Premier league), but UEFA can then push the clubs with the strongest historic co-efficient up into their most elite competition depending on a comparison of the strength of co-efficients relative to clubs finishing in the same position in other European Leagues. However, they would still need to finish in the top seven to have their co-efficients considered, and no more than six English clubs would be allowed to qualify for the Champions League in any given season.
It remains to be seen whether all of the plans go ahead, but if UEFA can receive backing from the Premier League and its continental counterparts, we could be watching a very different Champions League in 2024.
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Stattobets write ups, analysis and bets are available to monthly subscribers.
Monthly subs are £50 a month and can be cancelled at any time. You can sign up here.
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £42,703.40 All bets have an ROI +2.39%
A £4000 bank betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £46,703.40 a 1068% increase
The Road to Riches: Weekend of 6th-7th March
Coming up this weekend
- Football, Premier League fixtures include Manchester City v Manchester United
- Horse Racing, Over the jumps at Doncaster, Kelso and Newbury and on the all-weather at Lingfield and Southwell
- Cricket, the India-England test series continues in Ahmedabad
- Golf, the Arnold Palmer Invitational at Bay Hill on the USPGA.
- Tennis, ATP Opens in Chile, Marseille and Qatar
Cheltenham 16th-19th March 2021
We have added our Cheltenham four-day package to our homepage. Get all of Neil’s write-ups together with the details of all our bets. The full package is available for £199 here
Free tip
Millwall v Blackburn, Championship, Saturday 3pm
Gary Rowett’s Millwall sixth in 10th place in the Championship table after two thirds of the season ans have been draw specialists, with 16 draws in 31 games. Until Saturday’s loss at Barnsley they were eight games unbeaten, though five of those results were draws. They bounced back to beat Preston 2-1 on Tuesday night.
They aren’t a prolific side, top scorer Jed Wallace has 7 goals and they’ve only scored 34 overall, but they are solid defensively, only conceding 31 goals or a goal a game on average
Tony Mowbray’s Blackburn side now sit 15th after their 1-0 loss at Reading on Tuesday night. They are right at the bottom of the form table with one point in their last six games, a run that has seen speculation about the manager’s future. Blackburn can score goals, 46 so far this season with (probably) Premier League bound Adam Armstrong having scored 20 of them. Liverpool loanee Harvey Elliott and newly returned from injury Bradley Dack occupy the other attacking positions and five goals scored in the last six games is a poor return for that sort of attacking talent.
There might not be many goals in this game, but given the relative form of the sides 6/4 looks an interesting price
12 points Millwall to beat Blackburn at 6/4 with Betfred and William Hill
Revision
The EPCR have confirmed that the Champions Cup Rugby tournament will go to straight to a round of 16 after tournament organisers announced the revised format for the knockout phase.
The last two rounds of the group stages were cancelled when the French government prevented its Top 14 teams from taking part in cross-border competition due to COVID fears.
The round of 16 will be staged on the weekend of April 2nd-4th with the quarter-finals, semi-finals and final in Marseille taking place as scheduled. A draw made up of the eight highest-ranked clubs in Pool A and Pool B at the time of last month’s suspension will be held on March 9 to determine the line-up for the next two rounds.
Teams from the same league cannot be drawn against one another and those sides that won both pool games on the field (Wasps, Racing 92, Leinster, Bordeaux-Begles and Munster) are guaranteed a home match in the round of 16.
For the Challenge Cup, the eight highest-ranked clubs from the preliminary stage at the time of the suspension and the eight clubs which have not qualified for the knockout stage of the Champions Cup will compete in a round of 16.
The knockout stage qualifiers are:
Racing 92, Leinster Rugby, Wasps, Bordeaux-Begles, Munster Rugby, Lyon, Toulouse, La Rochelle, Scarlets, ASM Clermont Auvergne, Bristol Bears, Exeter Chiefs, Edinburgh Rugby, Gloucester Rugby, RC Toulon, Sale Sharks.
The schedule is as follows:
Round of 16 April 2-4t
Quarter-finals: April 9-11
Semi-finals: April 30, May 1-2
Final: May 22
StattoBets Dave Monthly Subscription
Stattobets write ups, analysis and bets are available to monthly subscribers.
Monthly subs are £50 a month and can be cancelled at any time. You can sign up here.
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £42,703.40 All bets have an ROI +2.39%
A £4000 bank betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £46,703.40 a 1068% increase
The Road to Riches: Weekend of 27th-28th February
Coming up this weekend
- Football, Premier League fixtures include Chelsea v Manchester United
- Horse Racing, Over the jumps at Kempton and Newcastle and on the all-weather at Chelmsford City and Lingfield
- Rugby Union, the latest round of Six Nations matches
- Cricket, the India-England test series continues in Ahmedabad
- Golf, the WGC at the Concession Club in Florida and the Puerto Rico on the USPGA.
- Tennis, ATP Opens in Lyon, Rotterdam, Qatar and Buenos Aires
Cheltenham 16th-19th March 202
We have added our Cheltenham four-day package to our homepage. Get all of Neil’s write-ups together with the details of all our bets. The full package is available for £199 here
Free tip
Six Nations Championship Wales v England Saturday 4.45pm
Wales lead the Championship with two wins from two. Of course they have been slightly fortunate with opponents in both games having a red card in the first half and Wales pulled away from Ireland and Scotland in the last quarter of matches when the extra main told.
In the Autumn Nations Cup, when Wales were at their lowest ebb, Wales lost to England 24-13 at Llanelli and didn’t create much. Now, with some improved form, senior players back and England’s form at the start of the Championship disappointing they are only 7 point underdogs here.
For Wales, whilst the suspicion remains that some of the major players are moving past their best, for now the team certainly looks stronger for the return of the senior players from injury. Only 6 of the team from the autumn start this match, important for a country that doesn’t have the depth of talent pool of France and England. Whilst Wales have yet to embark on the wholesale rebuilding that looks inevitable ahead of the next Rugby World Cup they have at least unearthed what appears to be a major talent in the winger Louis Rees-Zammit who has shown his finishing in both games so far.
England of course were dreadful against Scotland, and performed no better than expected against Italy with key players such as Farrell and Vunipola looking well below par. They should have the edge here in the tight five with Vunipola, George and Sinckler back and the defence remains pre-eminent. However despite these strengths there has been no real sign of attacking brilliance, both in general and especially against Scotland and Italy.
This should be tight, but I would expect England to have the edge and win by a score or two.
10 points England to win by 1-12 points at 6/4 with Betfred and BetfairSportsbook, 7/5 PaddyPower
Watt’s the matter
J J. Watt, the three-time NFL Defensive Player of the Year, is leaving the Houston Texans after 10 seasons wanting a chance to compete for the Super. The Texans, a team in transition (or turmoil) with a new general manager, a new coach and a disgruntled quarterback, agreed to let the face of the franchise for the last decade become an unrestricted free agent and acknowledged the reality of how deeply the veteran defensive end still wants to play for a championship contender instead of being in a rebuilding situation.
So where will he play in 2021? US betting markets have the Steelers as favourites ahead of the The Packers and Buccaneers, the Ravens and the Bears. However you could make the case for the Bills, Browns and Titans too, amongst others
While the Steelers make sense, given the presence of his brothers, T.J. and Derek in the roster, Pittsburgh has a serious salary cap problem in 2021 and they look a bad favourite to me. Watt’s likely objective to get a Super Bowl ring will be harder to achieve in Pittsburgh than in places like Green Bay (in his home state of Wisconsin) or Tampa Bay.
Wherever Watt goes, he’ll bring not just ability but leadership and buzz. Although he’s far closer to the end than the beginning of his career and will therefore most likely not be an every down player, Watt can sell tickets and jerseys and create a bond with a city, as he did in Houston..
StattoBets Dave Monthly Subscription
Stattobets write ups, analysis and bets are available to monthly subscribers.
Monthly subs are £50 a month and can be cancelled at any time. You can sign up here.
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £42,703.40 All bets have an ROI +2.39%
A £4000 bank betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £46,703.40 a 1068% increase
