Weekly Articles "Road to Riches" by Rich 'Tighty' Prew
The Road to Riches: Weekend of 22nd-23rd January
Coming up this weekend
- Horse Racing Over the jumps at Ascot, Haydock and Taunton and on the all-weather at Lingfield and Wolverhampton
- Football, Premier League fixtures include Chelsea v Tottenham Hotspur
- Cricket, the England T20 Series in the West Indies begins
- NFL Play offs, the Divisional Round
- Rugby Union, European Champions Cup Pool matches
- Golf The Dubai Desert Classic on the USPGA the Farmers Open at Torrey Pines
- Tennis ATP Australian Open continues
Free tip
European Rugby Champions Cup Pool B Leicester v Bordeaux-Begles Saturday 3.15pm
Leicester beat Bordeaux 16-13 in the reverse fixture before Christmas ahead of two tight victories over Connacht, including 29-28 with the last play of the game in Galway last weekend. They have only lost once this season, at Wasps a fortnight ago and under coach Steve Borthwick are a formidable prospect up front with a strong kicking game led by George Ford and plenty of gas out wide if conditions allow
Bordeaux’s game at the Scarlets was cancelled due to COVID travel restrictions and in round 2 and in the reverse fixture they scored seven tries beating the Scarlets at home 45-10 last Sunday
Bordeaux are top of the French Top 14, eight points clear at the head og the table with 11 wins and a draw in 14 matches to date. They are also very strong up front with a reliable kicker in Jalibert.
This has the feel of a tight contest again, likely to be one score either way with two strong packs, strong defences and kicking games to the fore, on balance taking Bordeaux with the points getting more than a score looks the best approach
11 points Bordeaux-Begles +8 points at 10/11 generally
System down.
Since beginning of December the Premier League has seen 22 successful postponement requests as the Omnicron COVID variant has moved through the country. Aside from that, there is widespread disquiet the clubs are gaming the system. Premier League clubs know that system now and nothing concerns them more than the possibility rivals might have spotted a competitive advantage.
Arsenal were missing “nine or ten players” for their Carabao cup semi final at Anfield. Less than 24 hours later, with the full extent of their problems clear, five further injuries in that game, African Nations absentees and perhaps as little as one Covid positive, the club decided to ask for the postponement of the North London derby. No matter that Ainsley Maitland-Niles and Florin Balogun had been allowed to leave on loan earlier in the week. By Saturday afternoon the game was postponed.
Leicester City and Watford have had three successful postponement applications and nine more clubs have had one or more. Some clubs have argued that their willingness to keep playing through previous Covid outbreaks has put undue stress on their core of available players whose workload would otherwise have been reduced had a full squad been at the manager’s disposal. This, they say, has in turn lead to injuries, not strictly Covid infections, but Covid injuries. Some had to play when they could have done with more recuperation. Arsenal’s position was that this exacerbated the situation and resulted more injuries which ultimately played into last weekend’s situation.
If you consider how desperate the Premier League were to keep the Christmas schedule going, because of the audience advantage it gave them over every other major European league, this really was the last thing they wanted. The first thing to say is that all sides came together to vote on this. The clubs are only subject to the rules and protocols they themselves agreed, and subsequently adapted for the spread of Omicron.
While it has been mooted in some quarters that they should have another vote to change the rules, that simply isn’t going to happen mid-season. It would mean one part of the campaign is played under different conditions to another. It is described as a “non-starter” that would create “integrity issues”.
The Premier League board are presented with the thankless task of adjudication, especially now the reasons for postponement have moved far beyond the relative simplicity of the number of COVID positive cases in the squad.
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Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated on 1st September as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £52,096.80 All bets have an ROI +2.66%
A £4000 bank betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth would now be worth £56,096.80 a 1302% increase
The Road to Riches: Weekend of 15th-16th January
Coming up this weekend
- Horse Racing Over the jumps at Kempton, Warwick and Wetherby and on the all-weather at Chelmsford City and Lingfield
- Football, Premier League fixtures include Manchester City v Chelsea
- Cricket, the fifth Ashes Test in Hobart continues
- NFL Play offs, wild card weekend
- Rugby Union, European Champions Cup Pool matches
- Golf The Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship and on the USPGA the American Express Championship
- Tennis ATP Australian Open
Free tip
European Rugby Champions Cup Pool B Wasps v Toulouse 1pm Saturday
Toulouse, last season’s Champions in this competition, are the favourite again this season. Currently second in the French Top 14 with 9 wins from 13 matches they kicked off their defence of this title with a 39-7 win in Cardiff, against a weakened side at the time recently out of COVID isolation in South Africa.
Wasps meanwhile had the result of their season last weekend narrowly holding on to beat previously unbeaten Leicester in the Gallagher Premiership, to record their fifth win of the season in 12 matches and their first win in the last 8 in all competitions. Quite the shock result as they were missing 17 squad members through injury and illness. They began this tournament with a hope loss to Munster, 35-14.
The match between these two sides in Toulouse before Christmas was postponed due to French COVID travel restrictions. Toulouse are clearly the better side and deserved favourites, 1/3 outright and -9 on the handicap. To be frank, I expected the handicap to be in double figures.
They have only played one game since the 11th December (a narrow league loss to Clermont on New Year’s Day) and will be fresh here and I would expect them to win by two scores plus
20 points Toulouse -9 at 10/11 generally
You can never tell
With fans dressed as clowns in the stands and the No. 1 pick in the 2022 NFL draft in their grasp with another loss, the Jacksonville Jaguars flipped the expected script at the end of a trying season, pulling a massive upset over the Indianapolis Colts on Sunday to win 26-11. Amazingly, it was the seventh straight season the Colts have failed to win their road game against the Jaguars, with six losses in Jacksonville and another in London.
Sunday's result was disastrous for the Colts, who entered the game needing to win or tie to secure a playoff berth. With the Steelers beating the Ravens in overtime, the Colts officially were eliminated from the playoffs.
Even with the win, the Lions victory over the Packers guaranteed that Jacksonville still own the top overall selection for the second straight year and go into the offseason interviewing for another new coaching staff and one of the best cap positions in the league with nearly $60m available for the free agency market
This unexpected loss for the Colts is compounded by them not having their 2022 first round draft pick, traded to the Eagles as part of the deal to bring Quarterback Carson Wentz to the franchise. He played the required 75% of season snaps that meant they lost the pick.
As 16 point favourites going into the game against a one win team, one of the more surprising NFL losses of this or any other season!
StattoBets Dave Monthly Subscription
Stattobets write ups, analysis and bets are available to monthly subscribers.
Monthly subs are £50 a month and can be cancelled at any time. You can sign up here.
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated on 1st September as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £52,096.80 All bets have an ROI +2.66%
A £4000 bank betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth would now be worth £56,096.80 a 1302% increase
The Road to Riches: Weekend of 8th-9th January
Coming up this weekend
- Horse Racing Over the jumps at Newcastle, Sandown, Wincanton and on the all-weather at Kempton and Lingfield
- Football, the FA Cup 3rd Round
- Cricket, the fifth Ashes Test in Hobart next Friday
- NFL Week 18
- Golf On the USPGA the Sony Open in Hawaii
- Tennis ATP Events in Adelaide and Sydney
Free tip
Squad rotation and differing priorities are always a feature of FA Cup teams that take the pitch for Premier League teams and this season with Omnicron/COVID and many re-arranged fixtures pending the challenges are more complex still. At least there are no replays in the 3rd/4th rounds this year. This column takes this weekend of this year to try and identify some ante-post value for the FA Cup and last season reached the semi-finals with Southampton at 33-1.
The aim is to avoid those Premier League teams that might be in a relegation battle, on the grounds that if push comes to shove the FA Cup will be secondary in importance to Premier League games. Also avoid the top end of the market. As in every other year the “big six” are 16-1 or shorter.
Instead look at sides each way that are mid table to lower half of the top ten and, whilst any selection is going to need luck with the draw in later rounds, at least a favourable third round draw preferable at home. My shortlist before starting writing, with current odds in brackets, was as follows
West Ham (22-1)
Wolves (40-1)
Brighton (33-1)
Aston Villa (33-1)
Crystal Palace (50-1)
I think the stand-out is Wolves, who helped by one of the stand-out summer purchases goalkeeper Jose Sa have only conceded 14 goals in 19 Premier League games, the second best defensive record in the league behind Man City. A very solid side, with Sheffield United at home in the third round on Sunday at 2pm. Wolves of course will rotate, and aren’t prolific in front of goal but 40-1 seems fair to me for this type of side who could go deep
10 points each way (1/2 1,2) Wolverhampton Wanderers to win the FA Cup at 40-1 with SkyBet, 33/1 generally
The Six Nations is coming
2022 appears to be the most competitive Six Nations in a long time, and the next pre-cursor to 2023 World Cup. For England the attacking ambition, pace and talent in the domestic Premiership is at an all-time high. The top teams play fast, open rugby with plenty of width and try-scoring. Whilst the space in Test rugby is more limited, England beat South Africa and Australia in the autumn by getting outside them and attacking space and major challenge for the upcoming tournament will be to continue this in what is usually mixed weather and tight games.
At the moment, England’s first choice back row trio average a try only every 26 Test matches, well short of the very best which is a key area for team selection. Courtney Lawes, Sam Underhill and Tom Curry are the best defensive trio but it will be interesting to see who is selected with 2023 around the corner. England also need to find a centre alternative to the frequently injured Manu Tuilagi.
One bright spot will be the continued emergence of fly half Marcus Smith and we should see Eddie Jones continuing to use positional fluidity. Expect to see only one wing selected, with three centres and the use of Slade at 15 more often than in the three-quarters and allow Smith to ease into leading the team’s attacking structures.
In this Six Nations England have 3 of their 5 matches away from home including Scotland, who beat England away last year, first up and favourites France at the end of the tournament. 9/4 England looks skinny to me and there is more value probably around Ireland 9/2 and Wales 6/1 (not sure which yet though!) if opposing France who look to have matured into solid favourites in the last two years.
StattoBets Dave Monthly Subscription
Stattobets write ups, analysis and bets are available to monthly subscribers.
Monthly subs are £50 a month and can be cancelled at any time. You can sign up here.
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated on 1st September as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £52,096.80 All bets have an ROI +2.66%
A £4000 bank betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth would now be worth £56,096.80 a 1302% increase
The Road to Riches: Weekend of 1st-2nd January
Happy New Year to all readers.
Coming up this weekend
- Horse Racing Over the jumps at Exeter, Cheltenham, Fakenham and Musselburgh and on the all-weather at Southwell
- Football, Premier League fixtures include Arsenal v Manchester City and Chelsea v Liverpool
- Cricket, the fourth Ashes Test in Sydney
- NFL Week 17
- Tennis ATP Events in Adelaide and Sydney
Free tip
Ashes fourth test, Sydney, starting Tuesday 4th January
England capitulated in Melbourne and now move to Sydney with the Ashes lost, morale at rock bottom and a 5-0 defeat looming, if COVID allows the series to be completed. The pitch in Melbourne was atypically green and England were put into bat and yet again their top order struggled. This pitch accounted for Marnus Labuschagne who scored 1 in Australia’s only innings, a rare failure.
So far in this series Labuschagne has scored 74,103 and 51 and 1 and Sydney’s pitch should be more to his liking, it typically is good for batting and turns later in contests.
First introduced to test cricket as a concussion substitute for Steve Smith in the 2019 Lords Test, by the end of that year he was the leading run scorer in test cricket. He now has 2,114 runs in 21 Test matches at an average of over 60 with six centuries and twelve fifties. In Adelaide he became the fourth fastest player in Test cricket to 2,000 runs.
In seven Test matches against England, Labuschagne has scored 582 runs with one century and six fifties. Against this England side, looking deflated, he should be able to resume form.
10 points Marnus Labuschagne Top Australian run-scorer at 5/2 with Betfair Sportsbook and Paddy Power with more firms to follow
A long haul
If you can't bat, you will not win games of cricket and England have barely batted in the first three Ashes Tests with totals of 147, 297, 236, 192, 185 and 68. In 29 innings in 2021, England have failed to pass 200 14 times and they have scored no less than 54 ducks and have lost 9 of 15 Tests. England's top seven batting, excluding Joe Root, averages 22 so far this series. Joe Root and Dawid Malan were the only two players to average more than 30 with the bat for England in 2021.
There are a number of short-term reasons why the tour has not going well, largely down to lack of preparation where COVID concerns and a crowded international calendar led them to intra-squad practice matches in the weeks before the series, then there has been no opportunity for match practice between Tests for players to find form and players have gone into the Tests underprepared but of course the main debates in the aftermath of a meek loss surround the more structural problems which look a long way off from being solved.
In no particular order: A County Championship schedule played at the start and end of seasons in mixed weather and on poor pitches, a governing body that prioritises the white ball game and more and more franchise competitions worldwide that the best players prioritise rather than spending time in England honing their long form skills are the most often mentioned factors but beyond that there are cyclical problems (England have not produced a replacement for Strauss who retired in 2012 let alone Cook who retired in 2018) and structural problems based around coaching and batting lack of technique, where a lot of players are unorthodox and also lack the temperament to bat for long periods as test match cricket demands. There are also few signs that the international coaches take the players coming through from county cricket and improve them, partly because the schedule is so crowded
Nor can it be said that there are many stand-out candidates that haven’t been picked yet, suggesting this is a malaise for the long haul and not merely a cyclical problem. For example Rory Burns had the best record in county cricket of any domestic opener over the last five years. In the test team since 2019 he averages 31 and specifically 19 against seam bowling. The cupboard is bare!
StattoBets Dave Monthly Subscription
Stattobets write ups, analysis and bets are available to monthly subscribers.
Monthly subs are £50 a month and can be cancelled at any time. You can sign up here.
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated on 1st September as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £52,096.80 All bets have an ROI +2.66%
A £4000 bank betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth would now be worth £56,096.80 a 1302% increase
The Road to Riches: Weekend of 25th-26th December
Happy Christmas to all readers.
Coming up this weekend
- Horse Racing On Boxing Day over the jumps at Fontwell, Huntingdon, Kempton, Market Rasen, Sedgefield, Wetherby and Wincanton and on the all-weather at Wolverhampton
- Football, Premier League fixtures include Liverpool v Leeds and Manchester City v Leicester City
- Cricket, the third Ashes Test in Melbourne
- NFL Week 16
Free tip
Ashes third test, Melbourne starting Boxing Day
At 2-0 down and with the Ashes series almost lost a clear culprit is England’s batting, especially in first innings compounded by two questionable team selections, a poor toss decision in Brisbane and multiple dropped catches. At the MCG starting in the early hours of Boxing Day it will probably be a conventional case of win the toss and bat and if that decision falls to Australia the evidence of the series so far is that Australia will make hay with Marus Labuschagne batting at three one of the major threats.
So far in this series Labuschagne has scored 74,103 and 51. He has been in early in two of the three innings to date, had a bit of luck in Adelaide but there is nothing to suggest won’t continue to churn out runs this series and beyond.
First introduced to test cricket as a concussion substitute for Steve Smith in the 2019 Lords Test, by the end of that year he was the leading run scorer in test cricket. He now has 2,113 runs in 20 Test matches at an average of 62.14 withs six centuries and twelve fifties. In Adelaide he became the fourth fastest player in Test cricket to 2,000 runs.
In six Test matches against England, Labuschagne has scored 581 runs at an average of 58.10 with one century and six fifties. Against this England side, looking deflated, he shows no sign of slowing down.
10 points Marnus Labuschagne Top Australian run-scorer at 23/10 with Netfair Sportsbook and Paddy Power, 2/1 Betfred with more firms to follow
Running, running….
The NFL is cyclical, and after years of personnel moves and defensive schemes focused on stopping the pass, the NFL's top rushing attacks are having a great season.
As the 2021 season has worn on, the NFL has seen run games surge on a stage set for outsized passing numbers. We’ve seen from the Patriots, Eagles, Colts, Ravens, 49ers and Titans, too teams leaning on the run game winning on the ground, and for an easy-to-understand reason.
Most teams, in 2021, are built to throw the ball and stop other teams from throwing it. A minority of teams are built on the offensive and defensive lines and carry full backs and multiple blocking tight ends on their roster and have begun to dominate the smaller teams especially as season has worn on.
The Eagles have rushed for 200 yards as a team four times, and all four have come since Halloween. The Patriots have gone for more than 150 yards three times, and all three were after the end of October. Likewise, the 49ers’ top three games of the year are all over 155 yards and have come from November onwards as have the Colts’, with each of those games above 230 yards. The Titans’ top rushing number for the year, 270 yards (without Derrick Henry!), was during Thanksgiving week. The Ravens had a 247-yard day in early November.
Whilst the early draft picks will inevitably continue to be around skill positions involving passing the ball and on defense stopping the pass (cornerback, pass rusher) soon enough, other teams will be drafting run stoppers and road-grading offensive linemen earlier than they have done in recent years as the NFL continues its strategic, play-calling and drafting cycles.
StattoBets Dave Monthly Subscription
Stattobets write ups, analysis and bets are available to monthly subscribers.
Monthly subs are £50 a month and can be cancelled at any time. You can sign up here.
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated on 1st September as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £52,096.80 All bets have an ROI +2.66%
A £4000 bank betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth would now be worth £56,096.80 a 1302% increase
