Weekly Articles "Road to Riches" by Rich 'Tighty' Prew
The Road to Riches: Weekend of 10th-11th July
Coming up this weekend
- Football, The Euro2020 Final on Sunday
- Horse Racing, On the flat at Ascot, Chester, Hamilton, Newmarket, Salisbury and York
- Cricket, ODI between England and Pakistan at Lords
- Rugby Union, the British Lions v the Bulls
- Golf, Next week the Open at Royal St George’s.
- Tennis, Wimbledon Finals weekend
Qatar Goodwood Festival (Full package) - Tue 27th July - Sat 31st July 2021 by Neil Channing
Coverage of every race over the five days of Glorious Goodwood, cost £150 HERE
Free tip
England v Pakistan ODI at Lords, Saturday
England entered this ODI series which began on Thursday having thrashed Sri Lanka in a one-sided mismatch but then having to completely change their squad after seven positive COVID tests in the team
The new squad features nine uncapped players.
Ben Stokes returns to captain the squad having been absent after sustaining a broken finger when playing in the IPL earlier this year and has the bulk of the experience in the squad.
The uncapped contingent in ODIs comprises Brydon Carse, Zak Crawley, Lewis Gregory, Will Jacks, Tom Helm, Dan Lawrence, David Payne, Phil Salt and John Simpson, although Crawley, Gregory and Lawrence have represented England in other formats.
From a betting point of view an 18 man squad introduces a lot of uncertainty for team selection in each game. Here we have the first ODI in Cardiff played on Thursday to go on and of course the England team/COVID news took Pakistan to favouritism for the first game and the series
The batting order for the first game was as follows
Salt
Malan
Z Crawley
Stokes
Vince
The player who appeals is Dawid Malan. Malan has played fifteen tests and three ODIs including one 50 in the shorter format but is becoming established in the T20 side having played all three games against Sri Lanka in June. He is knocking at the door for Test selection again in England’s underperforming top order ahead of the India series and the winter Ashes to come.
We can make a case for the likes of Lawrence and Vince in this make-shift team, but Malan is equally a high quality player, opening the batting. Unfortunately for this bet he top scored in England's facile win in the first ODI, 68 not out, which has shortened the price a notch with Bet365 the first firm to price up for Saturday.
12 points Dawid Malan Top England batsman 2nd ODI at 11/4 with Bet365 (more firms to price through the day)
Against All Odds
It is now 19 months since the Springboks appeared together and they have may only have one game against Georgia before the Lions series after the COVID related postponement of this week’s second match. However South Africa were strong favourites for this series even before the injury to the Lions captain, Alun Wyn Jones.
The Lions have a scratch team on a shortened tour with only two weeks until the first Test playing a team that has very little player turnover. They have their own problems with the Bulls match this weekend postponed with positive COVID tests among the Bulls squad this week. From the Springboks squad that won the World Cup the only key player who has moved on is loose-head prop, Tendai Mtawarira. Furthermore the squad has some new blood and a number of the contingent playing at Sale Sharks are also available
Some of the younger players introduced in the Japan World Cup have improved. Lukhanyo Am notably will play alongside Damien de Allende in midfield and here South Africa look to have a clear advantage against the Lions.
South Africa are famously tough up front, from a well stocked front row to the giant second row combination of De Jager and Eben Etzebeth.
The Lions have strengths in the pack that may ensure equality but might lack depth and class in midfield. It is hard to discern an attacking machine that will be penetrative and Warren Gatland has a short time to work out the identity of his playmaker.
Owen Farrell has experience and character but had a subdued Six Nations. Finn Russell has the ability to change matches, but will he be relied upon to play tight physical Test match encounters? directions. Dan Biggar is a possibility at fly half, a very steady player but not a game changer
This is a strong South African team, World Champions who may be a bit under-cooked early in the series but it would be a brave man who doesn’t expect them to win the series and quite possibly 3-0 too. Which is why it is odd to see the Lions odds on to win the Test Series (South Africa 5/4!!) and South Africa 6/1 to win it 3-0
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Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £42,703.40 All bets have an ROI +2.39%
A £4000 bank betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £46,703.40 a 1068% increase
The Road to Riches: Weekend of 3rd-4th July
Coming up this weekend
- Football, Euro2020 continues, the Quarter finals
- Horse Racing, On the flat at Beverley, Carlisle, Haydock, Leicester, Nottingham and Sandown and on the all-weather at Chelmsford City.
- Cricket, 3rd ODI between England and Sri Lanka in Bristol
- Rugby Union, the British Lions v the Gauteng Lions
- Formula One, the Austrian Grand Prix
- Golf, On the USPGA The John Deere Open at TPC Deere Run and the Scottish Open on the European Tour.
- Tennis, Wimbledon continues
Free tip (It's coming home edition)
England v Ukraine Euro2020 Quarter Final by Stattobets
A flavour of the write ups in the Stattobets column for subscribers below. 'Stattobets Dave' - With great results so far in 2021, Monthly subscription (join any time and cancel any time) £50 English, Scottish and Euro Football plus Tennis and Darts from here
Here is his analysis
Backdrop
Be careful what you wish for they say. We’ve all wanted it to “come home” for 25 years now, but some dissenters seem to want to have their cake and eat it, complaining about the lack of adventure in the England set ups. It’s certainly true that our strengths lay in our attacking players, but setting up to steam-roller opponents in international football rarely sees you go all the way and Southgate has been pragmatic in his approach so far with four clean sheets in a row as reward for that. Looking back, in 2004 (Greece), 2008 (Spain) and 2012 (Spain again) the Champions each kept three successive knock-out shut-outs, while in 2016 – when the tournament expanded – Portugal managed three clean sheets in four games.
The draw is absolutely opening up for England, but a 0-0 with Scotland, and 1-0 victories over Czech Republic and Croatia didn’t set the world alight in the group stage. We are through the biggest test now of course having seen off Germany, but if anyone thinks Ukraine and either Denmark or Czech Republic will just roll over they will be found out quickly. We’ve managed just 27 shots so far in the tournament and 10 on-target efforts – both lows among the eight quarter finalists.
The Ukraine for their part qualified from a pretty easy group on paper, but three points was a poor return and it’s worth nothing that despite finishing above them in the group, both Austria and Holland are now out. They’ve been marginally more industrious than England (36 shots and 17 on-target) but 15 and 8 of those respectively came against North Macedonia, while they were really awful against Austria. It’s at the back Ukraine are weakest, and England will definitely get chances to unlock and open the game up.
The other thing worth noting here is the fans. The FA have handed back their allocation of tickets, meaning England fans are likely to be relatively low numbers. I'm sure some will travel, especially ex-pats, and some will get tickets, but were not likely to see a wall of England fans packing out the stadium.
Team News
Ukraine will be without Artem Besedin after a nasty challenge saw him come off second best against Sweden in extra time, but he was only considered a back-up to Andriy Yarmolenko and Roman Yaremchuk anyway. It’s likely Oleksander Zubkov will return to the line-up for the first time since going off injured against the Dutch in the opener.
For England, Mason Mount is pretty likely to return to the line-up. The Germany match came too soon for him, but he’s been training with the squad all week and is expected to come back in for Saka. One wonders if Henderson might get the nod to join either Declan Rice or Kalvin Phillips in midfield given both are on a yellow and would miss the semi-final if booked.
Summary and Bets
I wouldn’t be at all surprised if England continue their patient pragmatic approach, looking to get ahead and then stick with what they have, but the fly in the ointment could be game state, which could see an increasing desperate Ukraine open up at both ends.
Nevertheless, England are rarely a team to go gung-ho. Over their 17 matches this season, 11 have ended up under 2.5 goals, while you can probably take the San Marino game out of that sample. With England the side likely to be in control for the majority of the game I’m happy to take the 5/6.
I’m also going to suggest that Raheem Sterling is over-priced in the UEFA Star Man (Man of the Match market). He’s already scored three of England’s four goals, so is bound to be the subject of much conversation, has the pace to cause problems for a shaky Ukraine defence, and always excites when on the ball. With England such a short price to win the match, and most of the awards going to attacking players so far this tournament, the man who already has won two awards looks value for a hat-trick.
Recommendations
10pts Under 2.5 Goals at 1.83 or 1.84 (Betting Exchanges)
6pts Raheem Sterling to win UEFA Star Man at 6/1 (Bet365, Paddy Power, Betfair SB)
Summer sales
“There is no time to waste and there is a lot of work to do, we have to be ruthless” says Mikel Arteta at Arsenal. A playing squad overhaul is expected at Tottenham under a new manager, Liverpool are looking to revamp their squad and at Chelsea it is reported that the club wants to sell 13 unwanted players still under contract none of whom have been selected under Tuchel so far. These are stories repeated across the Premier League.
These overhauls are going to be a difficult task. Income among the 20 Premier League clubs fell by about £600m last season due to the effects of pandemic. The loss of match-day revenue has had a large impact on clubs at all levels and the financial climate threatens to bring this particular area of the transfer market to a standstill.
There will be big deals at the top end of the market of course but these are unlikely to be funded by selling unwanted players and easing the burden on the wage bill.
So many of the players who are surplus to requirements this summer are those who were in the same position a year ago. In many cases that meant an inability to secure permanent transfers and settling for season-long loans, often while continuing to pay a large portion of the player’s wages.
Unhelpfully the Chinese Super League's appetite for players from European league has been suppressed by a 100% transfer tax for overseas players.
The measure was introduced to try and encourage youth development in China and help meet the state's ambitious aim of winning the World Cup by 2050. The Chinese FA also announced that clubs must start matches with the same number of Chinese players under the age of 23 as they do foreign players. Kicking-off a summer rebuild via China no longer looks a viable option.
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £42,703.40 All bets have an ROI +2.39%
A £4000 bank betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £46,703.40 a 1068% increase
The Road to Riches: Weekend of 26th-27th June
Coming up this weekend
- Football, Euro2020 continues, the Round of 16 begins
- Horse Racing, On the flat at Chester, Doncaster, Lingfield, Newmarket, Windsor and York and on the all-weather at Newcastle.
- Cricket, T20I between England and Sri Lanka in Southampton and the Vitality T20 Blast continues
- Rugby Union, the Lions kick off the 2021 tour v Japan and the Gallagher Premiership final, Exeter Chiefs v Harlequins
- Formula One, the Styrian Grand Prix in Austria
- Golf, On the USPGA The Rocket Mortgage Classic in Detroit and the Irish Open on the European Tour.
- Tennis, Wimbledon starts on Monday
Free tip
Vitality T20 Blast Cricket
Middlesex v Glamorgan 2.30pm Sunday Radlett
Our tip was rained off last week and we have a change to go again on Sunday
Moving into the second half of the group games Middlesex have won 1 of their 6 games not including Friday night’s game at the Oval, Glamorgan have only won 2 of their first 8 games, two of those eight games being weather abandonments.
My interest in the game is in the Glamorgan top Batsman market. Marnus Labuschagne is a top class batsman across all formats, in a team that doesn’t have great batting strength Colin Ingram the South African aside. Labuschagne first signed for Glamorgan for the first part of the 2019 county season where he would churn out 1114 runs in 10 matches. Introduced to the Australian Test sideet in the same year he now has 1885 runs at an average of 60 and in 2019 eclipsed Smith Smith as the leading Test run-scorer in the world, and locked in the No. 3 spot in the midst of a prolific home summer that brought him four centuries in five matches against Pakistan and New Zealand including a double century at the SCG.
He has been in prolific form in this year’s competition:
93 runs off 56 ball in the first game
59 runs off 47 balls in the second
74 runs off 51 in third
22 runs off 19 balls, still second top scorer
13 off 20 first match v Middlesex
33 off 21 in the defeat to Gloucestershire
He should give us a great run for our money. Prices are not yet available, and time is getting on. I am putting an indicated price down
12 points Marnus Labuschagne Top Glamorgan batsman v Middlesex at 2/1+ (all being well)
In the Firing Line
After the recent series defeat by New Zealand, with India the next opponent in August things might not get much better for the England cricket team, who five months away from the Ashes series in Australia are under pressure especially Head Coach Chris Silverwood who is now in sole charge of selection now.
Some things have been out of Silverwood’s control, notably injuries to Jofra Archer and Ben Stokes but there is clearly culpability too in a year in which England have lost four of the eight Tests they have played, including four of the past five.
First amongst these is selection, such as leaving out Jack Leach/a spinner at Edgbaston after a strong series performance in India but in the bigger picture the “rest and rotation” policy denies the side continuity and England rarely pick their best available side, always with an eye on an upcoming tournament or the Ashes.
Silverwood bought into rest and rotation because he wants to expand the pool of players he can pick for the Ashes this winter, but the reverse might be true if players turn their back on Test cricket for franchise sides in shorter formats.
For this summer Silverwood has requested flat pitches where his team can work on a method of building big totals and the bowlers are challenged to find ways of taking wickets rather than relying on helpful conditions, ahead of the Ashes. This has removed at least the early season home advantage and is a risk if losses continue.
If this all helps England win the Ashes in Australia, then he will be vindicated. Writing today, that looks unlikely
StattoBets Dave Monthly Subscription
Stattobets write ups, analysis and bets are available to monthly subscribers.
Monthly subs are £50 a month and can be cancelled at any time. You can sign up here.
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £42,703.40 All bets have an ROI +2.39%
A £4000 bank betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £46,703.40 a 1068% increase
The Road to Riches: Weekend of 19th-20th June
Coming up this weekend
- Football, Euro2020 continues including Portugal v Germany on Saturday
- Horse Racing, On the flat at Royal Ascot, Ayr, Haydock, Lingfield, Newmarket and Redcar and over the jumps at Perth
- Cricket, the Final of the World Test Championship between India and New Zealand at Southampton and the Vitality T20 Blast continues
- Formula One, the French Grand Prix
- Golf, On the USPGA The Travelers Championship at TPC River Highlands and the BMW International Open on the European Tour.
- Tennis, Ahead of Wimbledon ATP Opens in Mallorca and Devonshire Lawns
Free tip
Vitality T20 Blast Cricket Somerset v Glamorgan Saturday 7pm Taunton
A week into this year’s competition. In the Southern Group, Somerset have won 1 of their first three games, losing the first two before beating Kent on Tuesday night, Glamorgan have only won 1 of their first four games.
My interest in the game is in the Glamorgan top Batsman market. Marnus Labuschagne is a top class batsman across all formats, in a team that doesn’t have great batting strength Colin Ingram the South African aside. Labuschagne first signed for Glamorgan for the first part of the 2019 county season where he would churn out 1114 runs in 10 matches. Introduced to the Australian Test sideet in the same year he now has 1885 runs at an average of 60 and in 2019 eclipsed Smith Smith as the leading Test run-scorer in the world, and locked in the No. 3 spot in the midst of a prolific home summer that brought him four centuries in five matches against Pakistan and New Zealand including a double century at the SCG.
He has been in prolific form in this year’s competition:
93 runs off 56 ball in the first game
59 runs off 47 balls in the second
74 runs off 51 in Monday night’s loss at the Oval
22 runs off 19 balls, still second top scorer
He should give us a great run for our money
12 points Marnus Labuschagne Top Glamorgan batsman v Somerset at 9/4 with William Hill and Sky Bet
Lions
The British & Irish Lions face playing all matches of this summer’s tour of South Africa behind closed doors following confirmation of the revised schedule. All eight of the Lions’ matches will take place in Gauteng and Cape Town with organisers planning for empty stadiums.
While the hope is Murrayfield will be about 25% full for the warm‑up Test against Japan, the absence of supporters on the tour would be a devastating blow. South Africa Rugby has been lobbying its government to allow crowds of up to 50% capacity and this month an official request was made to the country’s Covid-19 ministerial advisory committee but organisers are pressing ahead on the basis of empty stadiums.
When it was confirmed the tour would go ahead in March, SA Rugby warned of the “serious financial implications” of playing behind closed doors. The union is still hopeful the South African government will lift restrictions on crowds attending sporting events before the tour but if it does not supporters will not attend.
The estimated cost to the South African economy is £330m while the Lions will also take a considerable hit. It has been known for some time that Lions supporters would not be attending in their thousands but ticket holders are being refunded and fans have been told not to travel to the red-list country.
The schedule has been revised to limit the amount of travel and risk of disruption amid the pandemic. The Test series against the Springboks will begin in Cape Town before the second and third matches at the FNB Stadium in Johannesburg. All three will kick off at 5pm UK time.
One of the tourists’ opponents has also changed with the Emirates Lions replacing the South Africa invitational team. They will be the Lions’ first opponents at Ellis Park in Johannesburg before they meet the Sharks in the same stadium four days later. They will then face the Bulls in Pretoria before heading to Cape Town for matches against South Africa A, the Stormers and the first Test.
StattoBets Dave Monthly Subscription
Stattobets write ups, analysis and bets are available to monthly subscribers.
Monthly subs are £50 a month and can be cancelled at any time. You can sign up here.
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £42,703.40 All bets have an ROI +2.39%
A £4000 bank betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £46,703.40 a 1068% increase
The Road to Riches: Weekend of 12-13th June
Coming up this weekend
- Football, The start of Euro2020 including England v Croatia on Sunday.
- Horse Racing, On the flat at Bath, Chester, Leicester, Sandown and York and over the jumps at Hexham and Worcester
- Cricket, the start of the Vitality T20 Blast this week
- Golf, next week the US Open at Torrey Pines.
- Tennis, The French Open finals and from Monday the Queens Championship
Royal Ascot
Get all the analysis by Neil Channing together of with details of all the bets we are having over the firve day festival next ween in our full package for £199 here
Neil has also written "What to expect, how it all works and what you get for your money" You can read it here
UEFA Euro Championships - 11th June - 11th July 2021
This is included in Stattobets monthly subs, cost £50 a month (cancel at any time) Read more about Stattobets subs here
All the ante-post write ups and bets are available now, incude groups, special bets, outrights, top scorer and Player of the tournament and write ups for the first games of the tournament
Stattobets record in 2021
January staked 705 profit +180.28 ROI +25.57%
February staked 800 profit +153.82 ROI +19.23%
March staked 525 profit + 201.21 ROI+ 38.32%
April staked 889 profit +371.18 ROI +41.75%
May staked 325 profit +114.25 ROI +35.15%
Free tip
This week the T20 Vitality Blast returned with a 14-match group-stage format with all the 18 First-Class Counties split into North and South Groups.
North Group: Birmingham Bears, Derbyshire Falcons, Durham, Lancashire Lightning, Leicestershire Foxes, Northamptonshire Steelbacks, Notts Outlaws, Worcestershire Rapids.
South Group: Essex Eagles, Glamorgan, Gloucestershire, Hampshire, Kent Spitfires, Middlesex, Somerset, Surrey, Sussex Sharks.
Each county will therefore play seven matches at home, and seven matches away, with the top four counties in each group progressing to the quarter-finals.
The quarter-finals will be seeded with the higher-seeded team set to host their quarter-final. So, as an example, the top team in the North Group will host the fourth-ranked team from the South Group in the quarter-finals.
The four winners of the quarter-finals (24-27 August) progress to Finals Day. Finals Day will be staged at Edgbaston on 18 September.
The usual reminder that this is a high variance format and lots of teams will be in contention. I tend to focus on the lower end of the betting market looking for unfashionable and overlooked teams.
One such is Gloucestershire. They won the central group in the competition last year winning 7 of 10 games, thrashed Northants in the quarter final to reach finals day and lost in a reduced over semi-final.
Essentially the same team returns plus New Zealand wicket-keeper batsman Glenn Phillips. He holds the New Zealand record for the fastest T20I hundred, needing only 46 balls against West Indies and boosts an already strong batting line up whilst as it turns out covering for James Bracey behind the stumps too. At prices up to 16/1 they are decent value in a wide-open heat. A bit more luck than last year (albeit a finals day in mid-September introduces plenty of weather variance)
10 points each way (1/2 odds, 1,2) Gloucestershire to win the Vitality T20 Blast at 16/1 Skybet, 14/1 Bet365 and 12/1 generally
Brown Sugar
The Cleveland Browns, perennial basement dwellers are now one of the best teams in the NFL and a legitimate SuperBowl contender.
The Browns reached a low point when they finished with a 0-16 record in 2017, but their rebuild was already underway towards AFC contender. The Browns jumped to 7-8-1 in 2018 before stumbling to 6-10 in 2019 and then making a big leap in 2020 with an 11-5 regular season -- followed by a playoff win over the division-rival Steelers. It was their most wins and first playoff victory since 1994.
Cleveland will need to overcome Baltimore, Pittsburgh and Kansas City in order to reach Super Bowl LVI but there are grounds for optimism.
Firstly a productive and talented offense was the primary reason for the Browns' 2020 emergence. Cleveland's offensive line was top in the NFL by most objective measures last season, and all five starters will be back in 2021.
Cleveland also has a deep group of offensive skill position players. Odell Beckham Jnr. has missed significant action due to injuries in recent years, but the 28-year-old is still one of the league's best wide receivers when healthy. We saw that last season when he accounted for 391 yards and four TDs in six full games. Jarvis Landry returns as the slot man, too. The 28-year-old has never finished a season with fewer than 72 receptions and ranks third in the category since he was drafted in 2014.
Cleveland has built a roster with quality talent and depth at running back featuring Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt. Fourteen offensive skill position players handled at least 70 snaps for the Browns last season, and all 14 of them remain on the 2021 roster.
At quarterback Baker Mayfield is entering a critical season of his career. The 2018 first overall pick has had his ups and downs, and Cleveland will need to decide whether or not he deserves a long-term contract extension. Mayfield will have no excuses this season, as he'll benefit from arguably the league's best supporting cast.
Mayfield has looked good in two of his first three NFL seasons. As far as rookie QBs go, he was outstanding in 2018. 2019 was a mess across the team. In 2020 Mayfield was arguably one of the league's most effective quarterbacks. Perhaps the biggest reason for optimism is the way he finished the 2020 season. In the team's final eight games (two during the playoffs) he threw 16 TDs and two Interceptions while averaging 270+ yards per game. Mayfield was already establishing himself as a capable NFL starter, but his finish to 2020 suggests he can be even more.
On defense the Browns cleaned house during the offseason. Of the team's top 10 players in terms of defensive snaps played last season, only two remain on the 2021 roster: stars Myles Garrett and Denzel Ward. Cleveland upgraded at nearly every position.
One of Cleveland's most impactful offseason moves was the addition of former first overall pick Jadeveon Clowney. Both Garrett and Clowney should expect to see fewer double-teams when on the field together.
Another strength for Cleveland is its overhauled secondary. Ward has emerged as one of the league's top corners and will be joined in the starting line-up by Troy Hill, who played 95% of the snaps for the Rams' elite 2020 defense. Hill has the ability to play the slot which opens the door for either first-round rookie Greg Newsome or 2019 second-round pick Greedy Williams to step in as the team's third corner.
Though the Browns made the playoffs last season, they finished third in the AFC North. That's notable for the 2021 schedule. The division-champion Steelers' unique games will be against the Bills, Titans and Seahawks, and the second-place Ravens' uniques are against the Dolphins, Colts and Rams. The Browns, meanwhile, draw the Patriots, Texans and Cardinals.
Top to bottom, the roster is one of the best in the NFL. The Browns are 16/1 to win the Superbowl, so there is something already baked into ante-post prices, but a season as a genuine contender awaits.
StattoBets Dave Monthly Subscription
Stattobets write ups, analysis and bets are available to monthly subscribers.
Monthly subs are £50 a month and can be cancelled at any time. You can sign up here.
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £42,703.40 All bets have an ROI +2.39%
A £4000 bank betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £46,703.40 a 1068% increase
