Weekly Articles "Road to Riches" by Rich 'Tighty' Prew
The Road to Riches: Weekend of 23rd-24th October
Coming up this weekend
- Horse Racing Over the jumps at Cheltenham, Doncaster, Kelso and Newbury and on the all-weather at Chelmsford City
- Football, Premier League fixtures include Manchester United v Liverpool
- Cricket, The T20 World Cup continues
- Formula One, the US Grand Prix in Austin
- Golf, the Bermuda Championship on the USPGA
- Tennis, The ATP Erste Bank and St Petersburg Opens
Free tip
England v West Indies T20 World Cup, Saturday 3pm in Dubai
The opening game in the tournament for both sides in Group 1 and in a format with only two qualifiers from each group going straight into semi-finals, and this group also containing Australia, both teams will be looking for a fast start.
England are tournament second favourites, West Indies the 2016 champions (in India) and third favourites for the competition and both have similar DNA. The sides are full of big hitters, with an attacking ethos, both have world class finishes and on the bowling front both are stronger in seam attacks than spin.
In the Middle East adaptability is going to be key, the tournament comes just after the second half of the 2021 IPL and pitches might be slow, low and tired as the tournament progresses. That said unlike the Sharjah strip, the Dubai pitch shouldl be an excellent wicket to bat on. Throughout the IPL 2021’s 2nd leg in UAE, the nature of Dubai strip remained a sporting one and it also offers genuine bounce. The par score on this surface will be anything above 170. In the recent IPL final CSK batted first and won scoring 192.
On an individual game basis T20 is a high variance betting format and in what should be a contest between two well matched sides I’d tend to side with the underdog for value. Here for England we can of course pick out the positives (a stacked batting line up, lots of bowling all-rounders, strong recent T20 record) but the West Indies have similar attributes and in Dwayne Bravo a potential match-winner in death bowling as we saw recently for CSK and the team has vast experience too. For example Kieron Pollard has won 15 major T20 titles, Bravo 14!
Match odds see England best priced 8/11 and West Indies 11/10 and over 2.2 on the exchange. I would expect both sides to make it through this group, but the West Indies at odds-against are better value in this match
15 points West Indies to win at 2.26 Betfair Exchange, 2.2 Matchbook and 6/5 in fixed odds markets
Two Divisions
The LV Insurance County Championship will return to a two-division structure in 2022. There will be 10 teams in Division One and eight in Division Two, as per the initial plan for the 2020 campaign before it was scuppered by the coronavirus pandemic.
The counties will play in the divisions for which they qualified at the end of the 2019 season, meaning that Lancashire, Northamptonshire and Gloucestershire – who were promoted – will take their place in Division One. Nottinghamshire – the single relegated team two years ago – will be in Division Two despite finishing third in the 2021 standings.
With a switch back to the previous structure after two Covid-affected seasons, promotion and relegation also return; two teams will come up and down at the end of the summer after 14 games each.
One of the major benefits of 2021 conference system’s first stage was the quality of cricket on show, with counties unworried by the threat of relegation. But after the divisional split following the tenth round of matches, the limitations of the structure were laid bare, with only six teams truly playing for something tangible.
Other options were discussed that might have produced two divisions better reflective of the current state of play rather than that in September 2019, but it was ultimately decided that, while both 2020 and 2021 seasons had been designed as one-off campaigns to help the game through Covid times, 2019 was the last time that counties had known the exact consequences of what they were playing for, and so those promotions and relegations should be carried forward.
2022 LV Insurance County Championship - Division One
Essex, Gloucestershire, Hampshire, Kent, Lancashire, Northamptonshire, Somerset, Surrey, Warwickshire, Yorkshire
2022 LV Insurance County Championship - Division Two
Durham, Derbyshire, Glamorgan, Leicestershire, Middlesex, Nottinghamshire, Sussex, Worcestershire
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Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated on 1st September as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £52,096.80 All bets have an ROI +2.66%
A £4000 bank betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth would now be worth £56,096.80 a 1302% increase
The Road to Riches: Weekend of 16th-17th October
Coming up this weekend
- Horse Racing, On the flat at Ascot and Catterick and York. Over the jumps at Ffos Las, Market Rasen and Stratford and on the all-weather at Wolverhampton
- Football, Premier League fixtures include Leicester City v Manchester United
- Cricket, The start of the T20 World Cup
- Golf, the ZOZO Championship on the USPGA and on the European Tour the Mallorca Open
- Tennis, The ATP European Open in Antwerp and the VTB Kremlin Cup
Free tip
Gallagher Premiership Rugby Sale v Harlequins Friday 7.45pm
Harlequins finished fourth in the regular season last year then in the play-offs proceeded to beat Bristol from 28-0 down and Exeter 40-38 in two high scoring encounters to win the 2020-21 title. So far this season they have won all three of their games against Newcastle, Worcester and then putting 50 points on Bristol in a thrilling performance last week.
Nick Evans is a very attack minded coach, and his approach harnesses the young talent in the side notably the “next big thing” in English rugby Marcus Smith and he and the other developing players are complemented by veterans such as Danny Care and Joe Marler. A really fun team to watch, capable of scoring out of nothing.
Sale also finished in the top four of the regular season league table last year, and so far this season have had mixed fortunes beat Bath, then drawing with London Irish, losing at home to Exeter and then last weekend away to Gloucester, missing a last kick conversion to win.
Currently Sale have been fielding a relatively inexperienced side as the majority of their marquee players (Curry, De Jager, De Klerk…) have been on downtime after the Lions Tour or Playing in the rugby Championship. Curry and Manu Tuilagi are back this weekend.
Harlequins are in such form that I expect them to win narrowly despite Sale’s returning players this Friday night in Manchester
10 points Harlequins to win by 1-12 points at 15/8 with BetfairSportsbook, 9/5 PaddyPower and 7/4 Betfred
Home and Away
Home-field advantage has been waning in in the NFL. Road teams have a winning record this season, going 42-38 through the first five weeks of the season.
Last year, for the first time in NFL history, home teams had a losing record: Of the 256 games in the 2020 regular season, home teams won 127, lost 128, and one was tied. And in 2019, home teams went just 132-123-1, which was the worst cumulative record for home teams since the advent of the 16-game schedule.
Sportsbooks were among the first to notice the decline in home-field advantage. For decades, the rule of thumb was that home-field advantage was worth about three points on the spread. In the last couple years, that shifted to two points. It’s now around one point.
Whilst the absence of crowds during a COVID season was a factor last season, NFL teams seem to be getting better at silent counts to negate crowd noise, and better at finding ways to travel comfortably and achieve peak performance whether they’re at home or on the road. In today’s NFL, there’s no real difference to playing at home.
StattoBets Dave Monthly Subscription
Stattobets write ups, analysis and bets are available to monthly subscribers.
Monthly subs are £50 a month and can be cancelled at any time. You can sign up here.
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated on 1st September as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £52,096.80 All bets have an ROI +2.66%
A £4000 bank betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth would now be worth £56,096.80 a 1302% increase
The Road to Riches: Weekend of 9th-10th October
Coming up this weekend
- Horse Racing, On the flat at Newmarket and York. Over the jumps at Chepstow and Hexham and on the all-weather at Chelmsford City
- Football, World Cup Qualifying matches include Andorra v England
- Cricket, The IPL knockout stages
- Formula One, the Turkish Grand Prix
- Golf, the CJ Cup on the USPGA and on the European Tour the Andalucia Masters
- Tennis, The ATP BNP Paribas Open at Indian wells continues
Free tip
The T20 World Cup
The ICC World Twenty tournament takes place from 17th October to 14th November in the Middle East, immediately after the conclusion of the IPL at the same venues. The top ten ranking sides are joined by six qualifiers ultimately in a Super 12, two groups of six from which two teams from each go to the semi-finals.
One Super 12 group contains Australia, defending champions the West Indies, England and South Africa, the other India, New Zealand, Pakistan and Afghanistan.
The key point when looking at the competition is that the pitches are likely to be slow and low, and spin bowling important. It is of course a big hitting format but particularly at the back end of the tournament this might not be a high scoring competition
Ante-post odds are as follows
India 5/2
England 3/1
Australia 6/1
West Indies 6/1
New Zealand 7/1
Pakistan 10/1
South Africa 12/1
Each way pays half the odds for a losing finalist.
India of course are favourites, as they should be but the 5/2 doesn’t offer much value. England have a lot of power but might not be best suited to the conditions. Australia look a very skinny price given their bowling strengths are in pace not spin and the same could be said about the West Indies.
Two value plays come in Group B, New Zealand and Pakistan, where it should be two from those two sides and India into the semi-finals. Pakistan have Babar and Rizwan, plenty of spin bowling options and a familiarity with the conditions. What they lack is a reliable middle order/finisher. New Zealand on the other hand are strong, and often under-rated, in all formats and I often find myself having to take their price in these sort of competitions, and usually get a good run.
New Zealand have the pre-eminent world batsman facing spin on slow pitches, Kane Williamson and the likes of Devon Conway and Glenn Phillips in the team give it a ot of batting depth. The side is known for its plethora of fast bowling options but the front line spinners Sodhi and Santner finished joint 3rd in the 2016 T20 World Cup wicket taking lists in India. It’s an adaptable side, and yet they are priced up as fifth favourites.
10 points each way (1/2 1,2) New Zealand to win the ICC 2021 Twenty 20 Cup at 7-1 generally
Tiger Kings?
Having flirted with relegation from the Gallagher Premiership two years ago under the previous coaching regime, the Leicester Tigers recovered to sixth position last year under new Head coach, and former England forwards coach, Steve Borthwick. Now, in the early stages of this season, they have won their first three games to lead the table. In those three wins have come victories over Exeter, Gloucester away and Saracens which was a very tough start.
Leicester are becoming a force to be reckoned with again, which is going to be good news for the national team as the improved results have coincided with the introduction of a number of talented young players many of whom are now being picked for the national squad.
A few years ago Leicester struggled in recruitment from overseas and often in a lack of pragmatism in style. They can’t be accused of that under Borthwick, as they have a gritty hard nosed forward pack, much stronger defence and a strong kicking game. In winger Potter and full back Steward they have a couple of Academy graduates destined for big things and providing the finishing to the possession provided by the forwards.
This season at least its unlikely Leicester will hold off Exexter and Saracens, especially when squad depth is tested by the nternational season, but the club is getting there.
StattoBets Dave Monthly Subscription
Stattobets write ups, analysis and bets are available to monthly subscribers.
Monthly subs are £50 a month and can be cancelled at any time. You can sign up here.
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated on 1st September as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £52,096.80 All bets have an ROI +2.66%
A £4000 bank betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth would now be worth £56,096.80 a 1302% increase
The Road to Riches: Weekend of 2nd-3rd October
Coming up this weekend
- Horse Racing, On the flat at Ascot, Newmarket and Redcar. Over the jumps at Fontwell and on the all-weather at Wolverhampton
- Football, Premier League matches include Liverpool v Manchester City
- Rugby Union, the Rugby Championship continues, South Africa v New Zealand and Argentina v Australia
- Cricket, The IPL resumption continues
- Golf, the Shriners Hospitals for Children Open on the USPGA and on the European Tour the Spanish Open
- Tennis, ATP BNP Paribas Open at Indian wells and ATP Japan and China Opens
Free tip
Rugby Championship Round 6 South Africa v New Zealand, Gold Coast, Saturday 11.05am
Last weekend New Zealand secured the 2021 Rugby Championship title with a 19-17 victory over their same opponents this week, South Africa at the same venue in Townsville.
Prior to that match New Zealand had won four out of 4 scoring 170 points, conceding only 56 and scoring 23 tries against Australia and Argentina. It’s not a surprise that the first South Africa match was very different in nature against a side with a very different style (punishing defence, kick chase and kick for territory the staples of their attacking game) and it took a 78th minute penalty to take the lead for the final time in a game where the lead changed hands seven times
Before last week’s defeat South Africa had 2 wins and 2 losses, losing both matches to an improving Australia side by 2 and then 13 points.
We should expect more of the same this week. The All Blacks were pressed into numerous handling errors by the South Africa defence, whilst the breakdown forwards competed relentlessly. The fact that South Africa scored their try from a spilled high kick cemented that tactic for the rest of the game and it remains frustrating, for the neutral, to see South Africa make little attempt to utilise their outside runners with ball in hand
I see New Zealand winning again, there is no doubt about their attacking capability and now they have shown they can hang in a game against sheer power and probably can execute better this week but it is likely to be another close run thing.
10 points New Zealand to win by 1-12 points at 2/1 with Betfrair Sportsbook, 15/8 with Paddy Power, 8/5 Betfred.
Ashes to Ashes?
For England only one home Test win this summer represents their worst performance in summer series since 1999. All year selections have been made, including much rotation of players, with two key series in mind taking place this winter, The Ashes and the T20 World Cup.
Whilst the T20 team is settled and performs consistently well the Test team has both underperformed and has a number of ongoing issues.
While no-one could have foreseen the circumstances of Ben Stokes' break from cricket and also with injuries to a slew of fast bowlers a constant theme, an inexperienced batting line-up has not performed and decisions over spin-bowling haven’t been made with the long term in mind largely brought about by not playing spinners all summer,.
This time last year Dom Sibley, Zak Crawley and Ollie Pope seemed set to be half of England's Ashes top six in what would have been the end of a two-year build-up for the young batsmen. After a difficult winter in India, Sibley and Crawley were dropped over the course of the home games this summer and Pope only returned to the side at the end of the India series.
In place of Sibley (Test average 28.94), Crawley (28.34) and Pope (32.16) have come for Haseeb Hameed (35.90), Dawid Malan (28.62) and Jonny Bairstow (33.70) but none are fixtures in the side yet.
The absence of Stokes has also had a knock-on for England's spinners as they have been left out as England tried to balance a team without an all-rounder. Moeen Ali has been a temporary solution as late order batsman and spinner but has now retired from Test cricket.
As ever, England's batting will largely depend on Joe Root who has scored three times the runs of any other England batsman in 2021. Root has never made a century in nine Tests in Australia. If that does not change, it is hard to see England returning home with anything other than a heavy defeat. England could yet have Anderson and Broad opening the bowling in the first Test at the Gabba for the fourth successive Ashes tour. Despite their records Anderson has won only three of his 18 Tests in Australia, Broad one of 12.
It looks a bleak picture, if of course the tour goes ahead as planned given the tough COVID restrictions in Australia.
StattoBets Dave Monthly Subscription
Stattobets write ups, analysis and bets are available to monthly subscribers.
Monthly subs are £50 a month and can be cancelled at any time. You can sign up here.
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £42,703.40 All bets have an ROI +2.39%
A £4000 bank betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £46,703.40 a 1068% increase
The Road to Riches: Weekend of 25-26th September
Coming up this weekend
- Horse Racing, On the flat at Chester, Haydock, Newmarket and Ripon. Over the jumps at Market Rasen and on the all-weather at Chelmsford City
- Football, Premier League matches include Chelsea v Manchester City
- Rugby Union, the Rugby Championship continues, New Zealand v South Africa and Australia v Argentina
- Formula One, the Russian Grand Prix in Sochi
- Cricket, The IPL resumption continues
- Golf, the Ryder Cup
- Tennis, ATP Laver Cup and Sofia Open
Free tip
The Cambridgeshire Handicap Newmarket 3.35pm Saturday by Neil Channing
For a few years it looked like there was a big disadvantage to be drawn high in this race but the last five winners came from 28, 29, 21, 29 and 25 so we can throw that out of the window. Looking at the place horses the high numbers have also done better in the last five years. I don't think I'm going to be too dogmatic about the draw here but I'll lean towards high. I will narrow the field by avoiding those at bigger than 25/1 due to the danger of betting things at bigger prices known as the favourite/longshot bias. The idea here is that you'll lose your money more slowly if you randomly bet shorter priced things than longer priced as the prices are closer to the "real price" of things happening at the shorter end of the market. The exchange markets definitely understand this concept and they are happy to let things that the bookies make 33/1 go to 46.0 but the bookmakers can't follow as they are offering each-way terms that are "too generous" and would be hugely overbroke. What we need to do is find horses that are close to their Betfair price and benefit from the enhanced place terms that the bookies offer without betting at under the odds on the win. If we stick to shorter prices that will be much easier to do.
Bubbling Over.
The cancellation of the fifth Test between England and India denied the series an end on the field after a chain of events that began when India head coach Ravi Shastri tested positive for Covid-19 during the fourth-Test, forcing three other staff members to isolate. When another member of the backroom team, a physio, tested positive on Thursday, India cancelled training and then the match two hours before the start of the first day.
India were 2-1 ahead in the series and whether or not they are ultimately deemed to have forfeited the match the cancellation has financial implications for the ECB, Old Trafford, broadcasters and sponsors, initially with full refunds for 80,000 spectators. A forfeiture would give England the match, a share of the series and World Test Championship points, to be ruled upon by the ICC.
The BCCI has offered to reschedule the match, although that is more likely to be a standalone Test, rather than the fifth match in this series. India are due back in the UK next summer for three Twenty20 and three one-day internationals.
The India players, along with some from England, left for the resumption of the IPL, the tournament having been postponed with rising coronavirus cases in India in May and it is widely felt that at least in part the Old Trafford postponement is connected to the IPL.
As for England, prospects for the winter’s Ashes series in Australia are uncertain. Some England players have indicated they may pull out of the tour if their families cannot join them in Australia. Australia has some of the strictest Covid-19 protocols in the world. The five Tests in December and January are due to be played in five states, each of which have their own rules, adding a further layer of complication.
StattoBets Dave Monthly Subscription
Stattobets write ups, analysis and bets are available to monthly subscribers.
Monthly subs are £50 a month and can be cancelled at any time. You can sign up here.
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £42,703.40 All bets have an ROI +2.39%
A £4000 bank betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £46,703.40 a 1068% increase
