Weekly Articles "Road to Riches" by Rich 'Tighty' Prew
The Road to Riches: Weekend of 16th-17th April
Coming up this weekend
- Horse Racing Over the jumps at Carlisle and Haydock, on the flat at Brighton, Musselburgh, Newbury and Nottingham
- Football, the FA Cup semi-finals including Manchester City v Liverpool
- Snooker, the World Snooker Championship starts this weekend
- Rugby Union, the European Champions Cup Last sixteen second leg ties
- Cricket the IPL Continues
- Golf The Zurich Classic of New Orleands next week on the USPGA Tour and ISPS Handa Championship on the DP Honda World Tour
- Tennis ATP Barcelona and Serbia
Free tip
European Champions Cup, Last Sixteen Second Leg
Exeter Chiefs v Munster 3pm Saturday
As expected the majority of the games in the first leg ties last weekend were very close with winning margins of 19, 19, 14, 13, 6, 5, 5 and 1 points across the 8 ties, interesting with six away wins from the higher seeded sides.
One of the two home wins saw Exeter beat Munster 13-8 and the two sides now go to the febrile atmosphere of Thormond Park, Limerick for the second leg on Saturday.
Exeter looked on their way to a sizeable victory after first-half tries by full-back Stuart Hogg and flanker Jacques Vermeulen put them 10 points clear. However injury-hit Munster rallied after Exeter were reduced to 13 men for a quarter of the second period in which Munster scored 8 points before Hogg's drop-goal late on gave Exeter a five point lead to take to Ireland in the latest step of their attempt to win a second Champions cup in three seasons.
This should also be a very close game, with Exeter more vulnerable than they have been in recent seasons having lost 9 games in the Gallagher Premiership. Munster meanwhile sit fourth in the URC.
I like Munster to win the game with a real chance of overturning the five point deficit with a few key players back like Carbery and O’Mahoney (if Tadhg Beirne is back, a very decent chance) and the spread assumes they just fall short
11 points Munster -4 points at 10/11 generally
Not a level playing field
The English Premiership Rugby’s salary cap was reduced this season to £5m from £6.4m, aiming to help clubs cope with the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic, and as a result it will be become harder for English to compete for European Championships.
The main competitive issue is the comparison with the French Top14 clubs operating to a €10m cap, which has been reduced in recent seasons but still way above the other Northern Hemisphere leagues whilst there is no salary cap for sides in Wales, Scotland or Ireland and Welsh regions for example are spending £5m+.
From next season the marquee signings permitted by Premiership clubs, whose salaries sit outside the cap, will be reduced from two to one. The headline limit is due to return to a minimum of £6.4m by the start of the 2024-25 season at the latest, but there could be further pressure from some clubs to raise the ceiling before then if their competitiveness in Europe is compromised.
The United Rugby Championship has been considering the introduction of a wage cap, although officials feel it would be difficult to introduce due to the variety of currencies and ownership models of the clubs who compete in the tournament, who are based in five countries: Ireland, Scotland, Wales, Italy and South Africa.
StattoBets Dave Monthly Subscription
Stattobets write ups, analysis and bets are available to monthly subscribers.
Monthly subs are £50 a month and can be cancelled at any time. You can sign up here.
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated on 1st January as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £52,282.40 All bets have an ROI +2.62%
A £4000 bank betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £56,282.40 a 1307% increase
The Road to Riches: Weekend of 9th-10th April
Coming up this weekend
- Horse Racing Over the jumps at Aintree including the Grand National, Bangor and Newcastle, on the flat at Thirsk and on the all-weather at Wolverhampton.
- Football, Premier League fixtures include Manchester City v Liverpool
- Formula One, the Australian Grand Prix in Melbourne
- Snooker, the World Snooker Championship starts next weekend
- Rugby Union, the European Champions Cup Last sixteen first leg ties
- Cricket the IPL Continues
- Golf The RBC Heritage Tournament next week on the USPGA Tour
- Tennis the ATP Monte Carlo Masters
Aintree festival by Neil Channing
After an amazing Cheltenham winning just under 600 points with an ROI +55.7% we move onto Aintree. If any of you would like to see the Cheltenham results in full or read the write ups by Neil for each day please just email support@bettingemporium.com and we'll get you access.
The full package for the Grand National festival between 7th-9th April is now available for £99 here
Free tip
European Champions Cup, Last Sixteen First Leg
Sale v Bristol 1pm Saturday
The Last sixteen of the European Champions Cup has an unusual look. COVID issues primarily for the French sides meant cancelled matches in the pool stages and strong teams like Toulouse, Montpellier and Clermont are in the bottom half of the pool qualifiers.
This tie features two English sides, Sale finished 5th in Pool A with 2 wins, a cancelled match draw and a loss and Bristol 4th in Pool B with three wins out of 4 (including two cancelled matches, one recorded as a draw and the other a 28-0 win after the Scarlets were stuck in South Africa) and Bristol have home advantage for the second leg in this new format for the first knockout round.
That doesn’t reflect the relative strengths of the two sides this season though. In the Gallagher Premiership Sale are on the cusp of the play-offs in 5th with 9 wins and 3 draws in their 20 matches. Bristol have been very inconsistent with only six wins in their 19 matches to sit 10th in the table
These are the first two leg ties in the European Champions Cup and I doubt many will be effectively decided before the return legs and conservative play could be the order of the day. Sale are about to go through a changing of the guard ahead of a tighter salary cap next season with two of their world class South African contingent leaving and more domestic recruits on their way. For now though they should win this first leg by a score or two.
11 points Sale -5 points at 10/11 generally
Overtime
NFL Overtime rules were modified last week at the NFL’s annual meeting, by a 29–3 vote with a proposal submitted jointly by the Colts and Eagles going into the rulebook. The change will guarantee both teams get a possession in overtime (but for the playoffs only), shifting from the previous format in which a touchdown on the extra period’s first possession could end the game.
This is a response to January’s divisional playoff game between the Chiefs and the Bills which ended without Josh Allen and the Buffalo offense touching the ball part a larger trend over the 12 years since the current format went in for playoff games. Of the 12 playoff games that have gone to overtime since, 10 were won by the team that won the coin toss, and seven of those 10 were won on the first possession.
Part of the reason this was so lopsided is the talent influx of great young quarterbacks like Mahomes and Allen alongside veterans like Brady, Rodgers and Brees having a distinct edge as a result of winning the coin toss because the league’s best Quarterbacks became too hard to stop in one-off situations.
Whilst this isn’t exactly a creative solution its perceived to be better for fans, because both Quarterbacks now get the ball and thus essentially this is a new rule for viewership and entertainment purposes
StattoBets Dave Monthly Subscription
Stattobets write ups, analysis and bets are available to monthly subscribers.
Monthly subs are £50 a month and can be cancelled at any time. You can sign up here.
Betting Emporium results
The Road to Riches: Weekend of 2nd-3rd April
Coming up this weekend
- Horse Racing Over the jumps at Ayr, Chepstow, Hereford, Newbury, Plumpton and on the all-weather at Lingfield and Wolverhampton.
- Football, Premier League fixtures include Manchester United v Leicester City
- Cricket the IPL Continues
- Golf The Masters next week in Augusta
- Tennis the ATP US Clay Court Championships and ATP Morocco
Aintree festival by Neil Channing
After an amazing Cheltenham winning just under 600 points with an ROI +55.7% we move onto Aintree. If any of you would like to see the Cheltenham results in full or read the write ups by Neil for each day please just email support@bettingemporium.com and we'll get you access.
The full package for the Grand National festival between 7th-9th April is now available for £99 here
Free tip
The Masters, April 7th-10th
Viktor Hovland finished 21st last year in his first attempt in the Masters as a pro having finished low amateur in 32nd in 2019 when he was the US Amateur champion, This year, and recent form is an important indicator of a good Masters performance, Hovland has five top 10 finishes (including the Players Championship, the Arnold Palmer and the HSBC) and a win in Dubai, his sixth as a pro on the way to a world number 3 ranking.
We know Augusta is about length. It’s 7,400+ yards long but plays closer to 7,800 as the holes are mown against the grain/away from the hole. Hovland ranks 35th of 213 season to date on the PGA Tour for driving distance and 57th of 213 on the “distance to apex” stat. Whilst he is not overwhelmingly powerful, he’s long enough.
He comes into his own in two other areas though. Firstly ball striking where since the beginning of 2019-20 season Hovland is one of only 17 of 200+ players to average at least 1 full stroke gained tee-to-green per round. Players on the PGA tour gain 2 or more strokes on the field tee-to-green in about 19% of rounds played. Hovland has done this 33.8% of the time over the last 3 seasons, the 13th-highest rate of any player.
Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green incorporates short game shots, like chips and bunker shots. When you isolate just performance off the tee and on approach, his numbers are even more impressive. Hovland has averaged 1.22 Strokes Gained: Ball-Striking (off-the-tee plus approach) per round over the last three seasons. In that span, only three players have averaged more: Collin Morikawa (+1.39), Jon Rahm (+1.30) and Justin Thomas (+1.25).
He spends lot of time hitting fairways. He hits them 67%. More impressively, he’s on the green in regulation 76% of the time. 44th driving accuracy percentage
Secondly last season Hovland rose from 40th to 6th in birdie average. Since the 2019-20 season began, Hovland has recorded six birdies-or-better in a round 43 times, tied for 10th-most of any player. This season he is 4th in birdie average.
All in all, looks like a player that should be in contention here sitting just inside the top ten in the market.
As we get closer to the tournament it could be that friendly neighbourhood bookmaker marketing departments will be offering us extra places but for now the best terms on offer are as follows:
10 points each way Viktor Hovland 20/1 Betfred 1/5 the odds 6 places, 18/1 generally either 5 or 6 places.
All Change
It has been a dramatic NFL off-season with a number of huge trades and within this activity there has been a power shift: Every single big trade has involved the top player moving from an AFC team to another AFC team or from an NFC team to an AFC team. The only trade involving a player going from AFC to NFC is Carson Wentz going from Indianapolis to Washington.
NFC To AFC
Davante Adams Packers to Raiders
Amari Cooper Cowboys to Raiders
Russell Wilson Seahawks to Broncos
Khalil Mack Bears to Chargers
Matt Ryan Falcons to Colts
Robert Woods Rams to Titans
And AFC to AFC
Tyreek Hill Chiefs to Dolphins
Deshaun Watson Texans to Browns
Yannick Ngakoue Raiders to Colts
These nine players have a combined 39 Pro Bowl selections, and amongst them are seven first round draft picks.
The blockbuster deals continue a trend that has seen teams trader premium draft picks in exchange for veteran stars they hope will strengthen their Super Bowl aspirations. To date, seven first-round picks have been used to facilitate trades for some of the game’s biggest names. There are various reasons for this.
Firstly this offseason represented a continued evolution of a player empowerment era. Prominent football players following the blueprint provided by the NBA have taken control of their futures and forced the hands of their teams rather than allowing terms to be dictated to them. Unsatisfied with the state of their rosters, their financial situations or both, they have leveraged their way into more desirable situations. Teams operating within a salary cap then find themselves in difficult situations. I do find it interesting that both the Packers and Chiefs, two winning organisations, decided to move on from their Wide receivers Adams and Hill instead of paying them top of the market deals. The two teams that took them, the Raiders and Dolphins, have minimal playoff appearances over the last 20 years.
Secondly One of the most aggressive teams in the NFL over the last six years, the Los Angeles Rams ripped up the traditional roster construction manual in favuor of a more aggressive approach. Rather than value early draft picks as potential building blocks for a championship roster as is customary, they instead viewed early selections as bargaining chips to secure high-profile veterans who could help them win immediately. The Rams are coming up on their sixth straight offseason without a first-round draft pick, and they have already traded away next year’s as well. Yet they have reached the playoffs in four of the last five campaigns. This offseason some teams are following game plans similar to that of the Rams.
Finally the NFL draft features talent every year, but some draft classes tend to offer fewer obvious “can’t miss” prospects. This year seemingly falls in that category as it appears heavy on quality offensive and defensive linemen, but short on generational talent quarterbacks. The general managers and coaches of the most aggressive teams of this offseason have sized up their rosters and seemingly deemed themselves to be one game-changer away from championship contention. After evaluating the draft, they appear to have determined that this year’s draft classes lacked immediate impact players at their specific area of need. Rather than wait for a rookie to develop, they pulled the trigger on trades that they believe will catapult them to the elite ranks, even if that means parting with a boatload of picks in coming years.
In each of the last two years, aggressive offseason moves in the pursuit of a game-changing talent has delivered teams to Super Bowl victories. In 2020, it was the Tampa Bay Buccaneers’ pursuit of Tom Brady and several new pieces in free agency. Last season saw the Rams, after knocking on the door multiple years while taking the all-in for the present approach, finally achieve their goal. Now, their counterparts feel a sense of urgency to make big, bold leaps in acquiring elite-level talent.
StattoBets Dave Monthly Subscription
Stattobets write ups, analysis and bets are available to monthly subscribers.
Monthly subs are £50 a month and can be cancelled at any time. You can sign up here.
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated on 1st January as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £52,282.40 All bets have an ROI +2.62%
A £4000 bank betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £56,282.40 a 1307% increase
The Road to Riches: Weekend of 26th-27th March
Coming up this weekend
- Horse Racing On the flat at Doncaster, Over the jumps at Kelso and Stratford and on the all-weather at Kempton and Wolverhampton.
- Football, International Friendlies include England v Switzerland
- Formula One, the Saudi Arabia Grand Prix
- Cricket the third Test between the West Indies and England in Grenada continues, and the IPL begins this weekend
- Golf The Valero Texas Open in San Antonio on the USPGA
- Tennis the ATP Miami Open continues
Aintree festival by Neil Channing
After an amazing Cheltenham winning just under 600 points with an ROI +55.7% we move onto Aintree. If any of you would like to see the Cheltenham results iin full, or read the write ups by Neil for each day please just email support@bettingemporium.com and we'll get you access.
The full package for the Grand National festival between 7th-9th April is now available for £99 here
Free tip
Gallagher Premiership
London Irish v Northampton Saints 3pm Saturday
These two sides are still in the hunt for the fourth and final play-off place at the end of the regular season. Irish sit 6th in the table after 19 games whilst Northampton are 8th both having won approximately 50% of their games.
In terms of recent form Irish lost 47-28 away at the league leading Leicester Tigers playing with 14 men and before that comfortably beat Worcester, drew at Sale, beat Saracens in a close game, won comfortably at Bristol and lost at Gloucester.
Northampton last beat wasps 27-22 having lost their last three matches by five points or less, to finally end run of four straight league defeats to move within eight points of the top four, having played a game fewer than most of the teams above them.
Whilst Irish are the more consistent side both sides have plenty of scoring potential and this should be very close.
11 points Northampton +5 points at 10/11 generally
A look ahead
With the Six Nations now complete a look ahead to where the Tier 1 Northern Hemisphere teams stand ahead of the 2023 Rugby World Cup in France.
France Are one of the favourites for their home World Cup following their Grand Slam. The side that won the U20 World Cup a few years ago has reached the senior team, which contains world class players and is allied to top level coaching, notably on defence with Shaun Edwards. There has been a worry expressed that the team has peaked a year early but that is probably unfounded. This is a team that can win in a number of ways with a fearsome pack and great flair outside marshalled by Dupont and Ntamack at half back. Furthermore they've won a Slam without last year’s captain Ollivon, Vakatawa and Jalibert. Chat can't even get in the squad.
Ireland Came close to this title and might have been even closer if Sexton had been available to play in Paris. Led by the core of the team from the Leinster side, Ireland are well set for next year with forward strength and lots of attacking intention outside, a step on from their rather formulaic patterns under previous coach Joe Schmidt. This Championship saw the Joint most Ireland points scored in a Six Nations (with 2000) and their 3rd lowest points conceded (with 2014 and 2015) Will be in a pool with South African next year, and to make progress will need to go beyond their typical Quarter final stumbling block which is very likely mean having to beat New Zealand or France to do so.
England For all the talk of a “new England” this is only really manifest in the settling in of Marcus Smith to the fly half role. That aside the traditional English strengths up front and in the kicking game were the main successes of another two win Six Nations campaign. Perhaps its too early to judge potential outside the scrum, after all in this campaign they were missing a first choice 11-14 of May, Farrell, Tuilagi and Watson but a more rounded game is going to be needed to mix it with the top sides in the World Cup
Scotland This Six Nations represented a step back from the progress of 2019-21 despite the hope engendered by the win against England first up. Setbacks were particularly seen in defence and there were problems off the field too. Hogg and Russell, the two talismanic players in the side, had disappointing tournaments. In a pool with South Africa and Ireland next year.
Wales A fifth place finish and a loss on the last weekend to Italy confirm that Wales are miles away from being World Cup contenders. They began the championship with a lot of injuries but throughout were lightweight up front and struggled at the breakdown with only sporadic attacking threat in the backs. All this is symptomatic of wider problems in the national game that aren’t easily solved in the 18 months before the World Cup. An indication of the problems? In 2021 the Championship saw the most Wales points scored in a Six Nations (164) In 2022 we saw the least Wales points scored in a Six Nations (76)
Italy Finally after 36 losses a win in the Six Nations to build off. With the Academies and U18 and U20 sides beginning to churn out talent Italy are going to be more competitive in the next few years and the likes of Garbisi, Lamaro, Brex, Fischichetti and Capuozzo (a player who hadn’t played a top tier professional game two weeks before his international debut and scored two tries and made a match winning try in his first two caps) are the first indication of that. Their points difference in the Six Nations improved from -184 in 2021 to -121 in 2022.
StattoBets Dave Monthly Subscription
Stattobets write ups, analysis and bets are available to monthly subscribers.
Monthly subs are £50 a month and can be cancelled at any time. You can sign up here.
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated on 1st January as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £52,282.40 All bets have an ROI +2.62%
A £4000 bank betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £56,282.40 a 1307% increase
The Road to Riches: Weekend of 19th-20th March
Coming up this weekend
- Horse Racing Over the jumps at Fontwell, Kempton, Newcastle and Uttoxeter and on the all-weather at Wolverhampton.
- Football, The FA Cup Quarter Finals
- Formula One, the Bahrain Grand Prix
- Rugby Union, the final weekend of the Six Nations
- Cricket the second Test between the West Indies and England in Barbados continues
- Golf The WGC-Dell Matchplay in Austin, on the USPGA the Corales Punta Cana Championship and the Qatar Masters
- Tennis the ATP Miami Open next week
Free tip
Super Rugby: Crusaders v Blues 06.05am Saturday
Since the advent of COVID a Super Rugby Tournament including teams from Argentina, South Africa and Japan has morphed into a Super Rugby Pacific competition involving 5 teams each from Australia and New Zealand plus teams from Fiji and the Pacific Islands.
The Crusaders were the class of the larger Super Rugby tournament winning three editions in a row from 2017-2019, were leading again after seven rounds in 2020 when the tournament was cancelled and won Super Rugby Aoterea, the version for the New Zealand sides during the lockdowns, in 2021.
As you would expect this is a side stacked with All Blacks and so far in this new-ish season the Crusaders have won 3 out of 4 games, their first loss coming to the Chiefs 21-24 last weekend
The Blues have spent the last decade in the lower half of the Super Rugby standings and the weakest of the New Zealand sides. Now, they are more competitive
Blues last decade lower half of standings and weakest of NZ provinces now more competitive. Beauden Barrett was a significant signing near the beginning of the pandemic, played in 2020 then took a year’s sabbatical in Japan before returning this season. With him in the line up the Blues have won 2 out of 3 games beating the Highlanders 32-20 and the Chiefs 24-22 and only losing to the Hurricanes 32-33 with a very physical style of rugby. They are not going to be an easy “out” for any opponent this season.
I was going to suggest this, but no prices up with under 24 hours to go until match
11 points Blues +7 at 10/11
instead, lets go for the outright upset
10 points Blues to win at 11/5 with William Hill
Blockbuster
Russell Wilson’s trade from the Seattle Seahawks to the Denver Broncos for multiple first round draft picks and players exacerbates the current imbalance between Quarterback talent in the two NFL conferences the AFC and the NFC.
Now the likes of Drew Brees and Wilson through retirement and trade moved out of the NFC without young top quarterbacks emerging into the conference franchises through the draft
Contrast that with the AFC, where we find the following star players. As well as now Wilson, the draft has brought the conference Patrick Mahomes, Justin Herbert, Joe Burrow, Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson and more.
In the NFC Aaron Rodgers has this month re-upped with the Packers but beyond that there is Matthew Stafford and the next tier, Kyler Murray and Dak Prescott before we are into the likes of Kirk Cousins.
There is a stark imbalance of talent from one conference to the next, one that this year’s draft is unlikely to rectify with only a few potential first round draft picks and amongst them no “locks” or guaranteed potential superstars.
Perhaps this is a reason why Tom Brady’s retirement lasted a month, the NFC looks wide open without the number of franchise quarterbacks that the AFC currently has.
With so many teams struggling at Quarterback, and no depth of talent at the position, this explains why a team like the Washington Commanders, with a strong roster at most positions but no long term quarterback option, has become the latest team to trade for Carson Wentz after his one season in Indianapolis. Four or five teams are chasing DeShaun Watson in what will be the next blockbuster trade then the likes of Jimmy Garoppolo and Jamies Winston are next on the block.
For now, the Buccaneers, Packers and Rams look superbly placed in the NFC. In the AFC, to get to the superbowl you are going to need to have one of these star quarterbacks and/or a top top defense to stop these juggernaut offenses that are going to be seen in the division over the next 5-10 years.
StattoBets Dave Monthly Subscription
Stattobets write ups, analysis and bets are available to monthly subscribers.
Monthly subs are £50 a month and can be cancelled at any time. You can sign up here.
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated on 1st January as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £52,282.40 All bets have an ROI +2.62%
A £4000 bank betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £56,282.40 a 1307% increase
