Weekly Articles "Road to Riches" by Rich 'Tighty' Prew

The Road to Riches: Weekend of 21st-22nd May

Posted on 19 May 2022 07:54 in Weekly Articles "Road to Riches" by Rich 'Tighty' Prew

Coming up this weekend

Horse Racing On the flat at Goodwood, Haydock, Lingfield, Musselburgh and York and Over the jumps at Stratford
Football, The final weekend of the Premier League
Cricket the IPL Continues
Formula One, the Spanish Grand Prix in Barcelona
Golf The Charles Schwab Challenge at Colonial on the USPGA and the Dutch Open on the DP World Tour
Tennis The French Open begins

Royal Ascot (Full Package) 14th - 18th June 2022

Get all Neil's write ups and details of all our bets for the five days of Royal Ascot for £199 here

Free tip

IPL Mumbai Indians v Delhi Capitals Saturday 3pm

In the final stages of the group games and Delhi have a shot at a position in the knockout stages with 7 wins from their 13 games, good enough at the time of writing for 4^th place in the league table after Monday’s victory against the Punjab Kings

Delhi’s batting for much of this season has been led by David Warner and Rishabh Pant. Warner has 427 runs at 53 and a strike rate over 150 with 5 fifties in 11 innings whilst Pant has scored 301 runs at 30 and a strike rate of 157 has but just recently Mitch Marsh has been batting at number three and has made a couple of major contributions with 89 off 62 balls in the victory over Rajasthan then 63 off 48 balls against Punjab

Usually IPL powerhouses Mumbai are near the end of a disappointing season with 3 wins and 12 losses the latest when failing to defend 190 against Sunrisers in midweek.

10 points Mitchell Marsh top Delhi batsman at 18/5 Betfred, 7/2 Betfair Sportsbook and Paddy Power, 3/1 Ladbrokes/Coral

Time will tell

Even with the movement at quarterback this offseason, the transformation of potential team strategies at the wide receiver position is “the issue” of the 2022 offseason.

As discussed in this column recently the Christian Kirk trade began proceedings, followed by the Davante Adams and Tyreek Hill trades where both were prepared to give up their playing relationship with Aaron Rodgers and Patrick Mahomes respectively to go to new teams prepared to pay a premium for their services, as the Packers and Chiefs took the draft pick compensation and extra salary cap space.

Then in the recent NFL draft the transformation and team decision-making at wide receiver continued with a rare blockbuster draft day trade.

The Eagles did what the Raiders and Dolphins did earlier in the offseason: trade for a star receiver, in this case AJ Brown, who was having financial and/or relational issues with his team, and pay that star receiver at a new top-of-market market rate. This trade was for a high-performing young player with a year left on an under-valued rookie contract.

The position of wide receiver used to be a low-value position, one where teams would say “You can get always find them” along with running back, linebacker, safety, guard and tight end. Now, wide receiver is becoming more highly valued, due to more open and prolific offenses and, in turn, the financial value accorded to top players at the position. Wideout is approaching the importance of quarterback, left tackle, pass rusher and shutdown cornerback.

We have now seen at least three teams (Packers, Chiefs and Titans) take the following strategy: opt out of paying their star receiver at a higher level, trade them for draft picks and cap space, and go young/cheap to replace them. After trading away their star receivers, all three teams drafted wide receivers in the first or second round.

Christian Watson (Packers), Skyy Moore (Chiefs) and Treylon Burks (Titans) almost certainly won’t rise to the level of Adams, Hill and Brown soon. The acquiring teams, Raiders, Dolphins and Eagles will clearly receive more on-field value in the short term. But that is just a short-term snapshot and does not take into account the aspect of financial value.

Will Adams, Hill and Brown at roughly $24 million per year be eight times more valuable than Watson, Moore and Burks at roughly $3 million per year? A fair question can now be asked about which teams are getting the better value. Time will tell.

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Betting Emporium results

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A £4000 bank betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £63,082.60 a 1477% increase

The Road to Riches: Weekend of 14th-15th May

Posted on 13 May 2022 10:04 in Weekly Articles "Road to Riches" by Rich 'Tighty' Prew

Coming up this weekend

Horse Racing On the flat at Doncaster, Newbury, Newmarket and Thirsk and Over the jumps at Bangor and Uttoxeter. All weather racing at Chelmsford City
Football, The FA Cup Final Liverpool v Chelsea
Rugby Union, the European Champions Cup Semi finals
Cricket the IPL Continues
Golf The PGA Championship at Southern Hills
Tennis ATP Opens in Geneva and Lyon

Free tip

The IPL: Lucknow Super Giants v Rajasthan Royals 3pm Sunday in Mumbai

Two-thirds of the way through the group stages and these sides both sit in the knockout positions. Lucknow a new franchise in the competition this year are second with 8 wins in their 12 games after their midweek loss to Gujarat whilst Rajasthan are 3^rd with seven wins.

The match features the top two run scorers in the competition so far. Jos Buttler of Rajasthan has 625 runs at a strike rate of 150, KL Rahul of Lucknow 459 runs at a strike rate of 140 whilst the leading wicket taker Yuzvendra Chahal of Rajasthan has 23 wickets to date.

Buttler has scored three hundreds and three fifties so far, Rahul two hundreds and fifties but does have more failures, the variance is higher with his performance. Buttler is well on his way to challenging Kohli’s competition record of 973 runs. He scores heavily and is consistent, a solid betting prospect in a high variance format

10 points Jos Buttler Top Rajasthan run scorer at 2/1 with Betfred, 9/5 Betfair Sportsbook/PaddyPower and 7/4 Coral/Ladbrokes

Aspirations

The decision not to allow the English Rugby Championship winners Ealing Trailfinders to be promoted to the Gallagher Premiership, ostensibly because their stadium does not meet the league’s minimum standards, was another blow for clubs in rugby’s second tier struggling for relevance and revenue as, in some cases, professional clubs with marginal financial viability.

No relegation means we are now in the stage of the season where a side like Bath, bottom of the table this year, can “down tools” such as in their 64-0 defeat at Gloucester two weeks ago

With a moratorium in place on relegation from the Premiership until the 2023-24 season, the official line is that negotiations over the Championship’s future are continuing. There may yet be a cup competition involving Premiership and Championship clubs from the 2023-24 season. But how many thriving professional outfits will the second tier contain by then? Will the Championship be able to enhance the development of English-qualified players, coaches and referees? Given adult male participation numbers are falling across the recreational game and funding is already squeezed, it looks doubtful.

Meanwhile Premiership clubs stockpile young players who, in the absence of a reserve league, don’t play very much to help their development.

What should Championship clubs aspire to be? Feeder clubs? Proud local institutions in their own right? Semi-pro or mostly amateur outfits? One thing appears increasingly sure, running as professional sides doesn’t appear to be sustainable.

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Betting Emporium results

The detailed results page has been updated on 1^st January as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS

If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £52,282.40 All bets have an ROI +2.62%

A £4000 bank betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £56,282.40 a 1307% increase

The Road to Riches: Weekend of 7th-8th May

Posted on 4 May 2022 12:33 in Weekly Articles "Road to Riches" by Rich 'Tighty' Prew

Coming up this weekend

Horse Racing On the flat at Ascot, Haydock, Lingfield, Nottingham and Over the jumps at Hexham and Warwick
Football, Premier League fixtures include Manchester City v Newcastle and Liverpool v Tottenham
Formula One, the first Miami Grand Prix
Rugby Union, the European Champions Cup Quarter Finals
Cricket the IPL Continues
Golf The Byron Nelson Championship next week on the USPGA Tour and the Soudal Open on the DP Honda World Tour
Tennis ATP Italia Open

Free tip

European Champions Cup Rugby Quarter Final

Leicester v Leinster 5.30pm Saturday

A great looking tie in the quarter-finals which run on a one off knockout basis. Leicester, top of Gallagher Premiership meet Leinster, top of the United Rugby Championship.

Leicester have won 18 of 22 league games this season and beat strong French side Clermont in both leagues of the last sixteen. Back to a one-off game they have home advantage from one of the most vociferous crowds and are Unbeaten at home for nearly a year with a really good coaching team, strong pack and kicking game and great defence.

Leinster are the strongest Irish province with tremendous strength in depth derived from an exceptional academy system and provide the majority of the Ireland national team. They beat Connacht in both legs of the last sixteen and have also only lost four games in their league this season. Their first choice 23 has had several weeks rest whilst rest of squad has been playing URC games in South Africa

Leinster and this squad in particular have a great pedigree in the competition having won it in 2018 and reached the semi-finals last year. That street wise savvy from knockout game experience may be the difference against a Leicester squad just beginning to compete at this level again after several years in the doldrums.

That said, prevailing market prices seem to factor in that experience. Leinster are 1/2 outright and -5 on the spread as the away team. I think Leinster will win narrowly and am going to split stakes in the winning margin market

8 points Leinster to win by 1-5 points at 5/1

8 points Leinster to win by 6-10 points at 9/2 both with William Hill

Wide receivers

As part of a huge off-season spending plan for a team with around $100m in salary cap space unspent the Jacksonville Jaguars gave a market-changing contract in free agency to a receiver who hasn’t reached 1,000 yards in any of his first four seasons as Christian Kirk agreed to a four-year contract worth up to $84m. Even when reduced to its base value of $72m, Kirk’s deal including $39m over the first two years is a game-changer. His $18m per year annual salary is tied for the ninth-highest in the league. The bigger contracts belong to future Hall of Famers like Julio Jones, perennial Pro Bowlers like Keenan Allen and DeAndre Hopkins, and the recently franchise-tagged Davante Adams and Chris Godwin.

Around the league the deal has been described as “A major overpay” and it has had major ramifications for players at the position and other teams, making it much more difficult for teams to retain their star Wide receivers into their second and third contracts

Since the Kirk deal the league has seen trades of top receivers such as Tyreek Hill and Davante Adams who were both due new contracts as well as a slew of other players including Amari Cooper, Robert Woods and Allen Robinson and then AJ Brown and Marquise Brown on draft night last week

For those NFL teams operating within a fixed salary cap already paying franchise quarterbacks like Mahomes and Rodgers it is difficult to pay everyone, whereas teams like the Miami Dolphins, to whom Tyreek Hill was traded, operating with Quarterbacks on rookie deals, can make the numbers work.

Very broadly this has created a two-tier approach across the league. Teams with the star receivers seem to think the old pay scale was accurate and the teams without the good receivers seem to think it was too low. In a few year’s time, we will find out who was right.

All the above was the background to last week’s draft in which six wide receivers were selected in the first 18 picks of the first round including two trade ups, those six teams seeking up to five years of cheap contract control at an ever more expensive position in a strong draft class. This was the first time in the salary cap era that six receivers were taken in the Top 20 picks.

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Betting Emporium results

The detailed results page has been updated on 1^st January as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS

If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £52,282.40 All bets have an ROI +2.62%

A £4000 bank betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £56,282.40 a 1307% increase

The Road to Riches: Weekend of 30th April – 1st May

Posted on 28 Apr 2022 10:47 in Weekly Articles "Road to Riches" by Rich 'Tighty' Prew

Coming up this weekend

Horse Racing On the flat at Doncaster, Goodwood, Newmarket and Thirsk and Over the jumps at Hexham and Uttoxeter
Football, Premier League fixtures include Leeds v Manchester City and Newcastle v Liverpool
Snooker, the World Snooker Championship concludes this weekend
Cricket the IPL Continues
Golf The Wells Fargo Championship next week on the USPGA Tour and the British Masters at the Belfry on the DP Honda World Tour
Tennis ATP Madrid Open

Free tip

The 2000 Guineas, Newmarket by Neil Channing

I definitely don't have much bad to say about the form of Native Trail, the hot favourite in the 2,000 Guineas, who won the Dewhurst as an odds-on favourite at two and who came here and won over the trip at heavy odds-on in The Craven. In official ratings he is a mile clear and you could easily make a case for any odds-against being value. Having said all of that he does sometimes hit a flat spot in his races, the faster ground might be an issue and being drawn out on the wing is not ideal. His trainer is operating at a ridiculous rate of close to 40% winners to runners and I don't think I'd like to lay him. Luckily we don't have to worry about this conundrum as the 1/5th 1234 that a few bookmakers are offering gives us a great chance to have a value each-way bet and be happy to at least place.

I've spoken before about the Favourite/Longshot bias and how the exchanges reflect a true picture of a horses chance to win but the bookies have to be careful when they are offering such generous place terms and they will make the outsiders a fair bit under the exchange. The ones that are 33/1 with bookies can often drift to 70.0 or 80.0 on exchanges and we don't want to give away the value of our extra place by taking a bad price. For that reason I'll focus on the six runners that are under 33/1 which are not Native Trail...

Coroebus is the stablemate of Native Trail and on form they are pretty close as this one won his maiden, then got caught on the line in a Group 2 here before winning a Group 3 here at odds-on over this trip pretty easily. He won't mind this drying ground but he is drawn right on the other wing for his first race of the season. The trainer seemed to suggest he wasn't quite ready or he'd be better in time and he took him to a racecourse gallop instead of a trial. It's not ideal and doesn't make me think solid each-way especially when the market vibes going into the week of The Craven were bad.

Perfect Power won the Norfolk at Royal Ascot and later the Prix Morny so he has great juvenile form but six furlongs was the furthest he went. This year he was favourite and comfortably won The Greenham over seven furlongs but if you make an each-way bet you must avoid losing both bets for the same reason and if he doesn't stay it'll be hard to finish in the places. Easy one to cross off.

Point Lonsdale bolted up in his maiden and then was sent to The Chesham at Royal Ascot, which would be the race that Aidan O'Brien would send his slower staying two year olds to. After winning that he won a Group 3 at 1/8 and a Group 2 at 1/6 before getting beaten when odds-on by Native Trail in the National Stakes again over seven furlongs. This one will surely stay and obviously Aidan O'Brien can get his horses ready but I don't really want to back a horse on their seasonal debut when we don't know they have trained on and they are up in trip.

Luxembourg won his maiden, then a Group 2 at odds-on before winning the Futurity at odds-on again so we haven't really seen him have to battle yet. All his races have been over a mile but apart from the coming here without a trial I'm slightly put off by his head carraige plus the fact this ground will be faster than any he has raced on.

Checkedandchallenge is an interesting runner who we know will stay, as last time out he won over the trip at Newcastle in a Listed Race on all-weather finals day. This is a big step up in class, his first time on grass and he is bred to want cut in the ground so he isn't solid for an each-way bet.

Eydon was slightly unlucky on his debut over a mile on the all-weather last year and this year he was beaten on the line in a photo in his novice race also over a mile on the all-weather. It was his last run that really quickened the pulse though, as he could be called the winner a long way from home when he cruised into the race and swept round the field. That was a Listed Race and he is up in class here but he stays further than this and looks like a possible Derby Prospect for me so I'm sure they'd be happy for him to be held-up and come late here and if he is 2nd or 3rd we'll all be happy at these prices.

I'm having 10 Points each-way Eydon at 22/1 1/5th 1234 with Spreadex, (I would happily take 20/1 and I think you can get 25/1 if you are quick but make sure you get the valuable four places).

Before I go I should maybe mention that The Tote are operating the World Pool at Newmarket which basically means people from all around the world are ploughing into the horses on 2,000 Guineas day meaning some will get very overbet and because of their Tote Guarantee, (it's a bit like BOG...you get the biggest of the SP or the Tote Dividend), it does mean the take-out is way lower and the Tote offers real value. They are also doing a free to enter betting tournament with cash prizes which you can find details of on their website. I say all this simply because a lot of people in racing say that a strong Tote would be good for the betting landscape but they forget that we do all need to help that to happen.

Royal Ascot (Full Package) 14th - 18th June 2022 -

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Root Cause

Joe Root has stepped down as England Test captain having succeeded Sir Alastair Cook as captain in 2017 and ends his tenure with the most matches (64) and wins (27) as an England men's Test skipper.

Root's decision follows a run of just one win in England's last 17 Test matches, stretching back to February 2021, which ended with a series defeat in the West Indies last month.

Root is currently England's second-highest Test run-scorer of all time, trailing only Cook, while Root's 14 centuries as captain helped him to a record tally of 5,295 runs for an England captain.

His resignation follows the sackings of England men's cricket managing director Ashley Giles and head coach Chris Silverwood, with the pair dismissed before the West Indies tour after a 4-0 Ashes defeat in Australia over the winter.

Vice-captain Ben Stokes is the choice to replace Root, from what must have been a very short list of options, but probably not an ideal candidate given his injury concerns.

In many ways Root wasn’t a natural captain and this played out in the last 18 months with many strategy mistakes on the field and an absence of feel for situations. Mainly though he hasn’t received much support on or off the field.

On the field this was most evident in the batting line up which has underperformed throughout his captaincy. In test matches whilst captain Root was far and away England’s best performer. Consider:

Most tons: Joe Root 14 (33% of total ENG tons)

Most 50+ scores: Joe Root 40 (22% of total)

Most runs: Joe Root 5295 (16% of total)

Haphazard selection policies also didn’t help, with often excessive rotation and a clear focus on major white ball tournaments, then as the cherry on top the odd decision to leave both Anderson and Broad out of recent West Indies tour. More generally Root was asked to front a team picked from a system which isn't working or producing a conveyor belt of test ready talent. Whoever succeeds him will face the same problems

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Stattobets write ups, analysis and bets are available to monthly subscribers.

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Betting Emporium results

The detailed results page has been updated on 1^st January as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS

If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £52,282.40 All bets have an ROI +2.62%

A £4000 bank betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £56,282.40 a 1307% increase

The Road to Riches: Weekend of 23rd-24th April

Posted on 20 Apr 2022 11:10 in Weekly Articles "Road to Riches" by Rich 'Tighty' Prew

Coming up this weekend

Horse Racing Over the jumps at Sandown, on the flat at Doncaster, Haydock, Leicester, Ripon and on the all-weather at Wolverhampton
Football, Premier League fixtures include Arsenal v Manchester United and Liverpool v Everton
Snooker, the World Snooker Championship continues this weekend
Cricket the IPL Continues
Motor Racing, the Emilia Romagna Grand Prix at Imola
Golf The Mexico Open next week on the USPGA Tour and the Catalunya Championship on the DP Honda World Tour
Tennis ATP BMW and Madrid Opens

Free tip

Gallagher Premiership Harlequins v Leicester 3pm Saturday

In the final stages of the regular season and the run to the four team play-offs, this match featuring first and third in the league.

Reigning Premiership Champions Harlequins are a team with a very attacking style and won the title scoring 40 and 38 points in the two games in last year’s play-offs having finished regular season in 4^th place. Led by the half back axis of Danny Care and Marcus Smith they narrowly failed to reach the quarter-finals of the Champions cup last weekend, winning their home second leg 33-20 against Montpellier.

Leicester have a very different style based off forward power and a good kicking game allied to a lot of young academy talent that has come through. They are superbly coached by Steve Borthwick a leading candidate to succeed Eddie Jones as England coach when the time comes. A very difficult team to beat with only three losses in the league this season and the second best defensive record in league.

That said Harlequins are at home and priced up as home underdogs for a game which should be close, and they have a lot of firepower.

10 points Harlequins to win at 11/10 William Hill and SkyBet

Not a level playing field

A new proposal for the English domestic cricket game is being mooted. It involves the creation of a 12-team Premier League to replace the existing model of 10 teams in Division One and eight in Division Two, as a way to bridge the gap to international cricket as well as reducing the overall number of County Championship fixtures, creating more time for players to rest and prepare.

A new compensation system could be introduced rewarding teams for producing players, but making it easier for players to move counties. Under the current system, players can only be approached from June 1 in the season their contracts expire.

The high-performance review was launched to address the struggles of the England Test team and the series defeat to the West Indies, which extended the a losing run to one victory in their last 17 matches, has injected greater urgency into the process.

Any reforms advocated by the high-performance review would need to be approved by two-thirds of county chairmen or 12 of the 18 first-class counties and those counties who consistently remained in the second tier, below an enlarged top division, might fear that if they did not improve their performances their long-term first-class status could be jeopardised.

A new structure would lead to a reduction in the volume of County Championship cricket, with the current structure of 14 games per county widely viewed as leading to a reduction in intensity, forcing fast bowlers to either be rested or bowl well within themselves, and also make it harder for ground staff to prepare good quality pitches.

Under the proposed restructuring, the 12 teams in a Premier League would each play 11 matches, meeting each opponent either home or away. The six teams in the second tier would each play ten games, playing each other side in their division both home and away.

StattoBets Dave Monthly Subscription

Stattobets write ups, analysis and bets are available to monthly subscribers.

Monthly subs are £50 a month and can be cancelled at any time. You can sign up here.

Betting Emporium results

The detailed results page has been updated on 1^st January as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS

If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £52,282.40 All bets have an ROI +2.62%

A £4000 bank betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £56,282.40 a 1307% increase

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