Weekly Articles "Road to Riches" by Rich 'Tighty' Prew
The Road to Riches Weekend of 22nd-23rd October
Coming up this weekend
- Horse Racing On the flat at Doncaster and Newbury. Over the jumps at Cheltenham and Kelso and on the all-weather at Chelmsford City.
- Football, Premier League fixtures include Chelsea v Manchester United
- NFL the season continues with Week Seven.
- Formula One, the USA Grand Prix
- Cricket, The T20 World Cup continues in Australia.
- Golf The Bermuda Championship on the USPGA and the Portugal Masters on the DP World Tour
- Tennis ATP Korea, Sofia and Tel Aviv Opens
Free tip
T20 World Cup England v Afghanistan Perth, 12 pm Saturday
After mixed results & performances in the T20 summer England have headed on a good trajectory since arriving in Pakistan and now Australia for this their first game of the 2022 World Cup, a competition for which they are joint favourites. Runs for Hales, Brook & Malan & wickets for Curran, Wood & Woakes has bolstered areas of concern & left them with some tricky selection questions in terms of the balance of the side.
In a game they should win, the onus will be on the tip three in the order to either help compile a big total if batting first or be best placed to top score if chasing, especially as they’ll be batting before the arrival into the attack of Afghanistan’s start player Rashid Khan.
That top three is Buttler, Hales and Malan. Hales has returned to the side after his disciplinary absences and has only averaged 26 since his return to the side, albeit over a small sample of games.
Afghanistan finished fourth on their group in the 2021 competition with 2 wins in 5 matches. More recently they lost all three of their matches in the “Super Four” of the Asia Cup.
In terms of the England Top Batsman market prices are:
Buttler 9/5
Hales 5/2
Salt 3/1
Malan 4/1
Stokes 13/2
9/1 bar
Buttler is the obvious bet opening the batting but the value could be Malan at three, on the assumption that there is an early-ish wicket. Malan has played over 50 T20Is scoring 1,692 runs at nearly 40 and a strike rate of 140. His 14 fifties compare favourably with Buttler’s 17 in twice as many matches, though Buttler has spent part of his career as a finisher down the order .
10 points Dawid Malan Top England run scorer at 9/2 Corals 4/1 Betfred
Crunch
Following Worcester’s administration, suspension and then relegation from the Rugby Premiership the sport has hit new lows with Wasps’ announcement that they have gone into administration.
The Premiership is in severe difficulties and there is now a very real possibility that it could lose two teams despite the new season being barely under way with suggestions that up to half the remaining 11 teams are for sale
Wasps have been suspended from the Premiership. Relegation will almost certainly be the next step, as it was for Worcester, when administration becomes official and a repeat of the player exodus that has taken place at Worcester now seems inevitable.
Wasps face a winding-up order from HM Revenue and Customs for an unpaid tax bill of £2m, but their financial problems stem from a £35m bond taken out to secure ownership of their Coventry Building Society Arena home in 2014 after their controversial relocation from High Wycombe to the Midlands.
Worcester’s administrators have confirmed they will appeal against relegation on the grounds of no-fault insolvency. At this stage it remains unclear whether Wasps will be able to do likewise.
The Premiership administrators are considering proposals to reduce the Gallagher Premiership to ten teams and introduce a Premiership Two division to be examined as part of an urgent review of the structure of the English club game to set a more sustainable path for English club rugby. This may also involve central contracts for the England players.
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The Road to Riches: Weekend of 15th-16th October
Coming up this weekend
- Horse Racing On the flat at Ascot and Catterick. Over the jumps at Market Rasen, Newton Abbot and Stratford and on the all-weather at Wolverhampton.
- Football, Premier League fixtures include Liverpool v Manchester City
- NFL the season continues with Week Six.
- Cricket, The T20 World Cup begins in Australia.
- Golf The C J Cup on the USPGA and the Mallorca Open on the DP World Tour
- Tennis ATP Antwerp, Stockholm and Napoli Opens
Free tip
Cricket: The T20 World Cup
The T20 World Cup begins in Australia this weekend, originally scheduled for 2020 and postponed during the COVID pandemic, then followed by the 2021 edition in the UAE won by Australia.
The tournament consists of two qualifying pools of four teams each, notably containing Sri Lanka and West Indies and then two pools of six, with the top two from each going into the semi-finals.
The 2021 competition saw a big toss bias on tired and slow pitches in a format already with a lot of variance Here, we should expect good, faster pitches and higher scoring games.
Outright odds at the time of writing are as follows, with each-way of half the odds 1-2 available
Australia 3-1
England 3-1
India 7-2
South Africa 8-1
Pakistan 8-1
New Zealand 8-1
Bar 16-1
On these high scoring pitches the depth and skill of the bowling line-ups is going to be a key differentiating factor and I want to consider where the each way value is away from the front 3 where you can certainly make a strong case for Australia and India ahead of England.
Pakistan have two world class batsmen in Babar Azam and Mohammed Rizwan and lots of fast bowling but perhaps not as adaptable a team as South Africa who will like up Nortje, Rabada and Ngidi for a strong pace attack and with Rossouw back in the line up a very deep batting order.
Both Pakistan and South Africa are in the group pool with India and New Zealand and probably the West Indies and will avoid England and Australia until the knockout stages.
New Zealand, runners up in the UAE in 20921 and also close in last two 50 over World Cups have perennially been the each way bet of these columns for these tournaments, always under-rated but the side isn’t quite as strong now in this franchise era and with a larger turnover of players than previously through retirement.
8 points each way South Africa at 8-1 with Bet365 and Betfred
Cycles
The NFL is a cyclical business in terms of playing strategies, and that is playing out this season
Through the first four weeks of the 2022 NFL season games were averaging only 42.1 points per game, a 5.0 points-per-game drop over the first three weeks of the 2021 season and lower than any season since 2010.
The drop in total points in 2022 can be primarily attributed to changes in the passing game this season's pass plays have been less efficient than in any of the previous 10 seasons, yielding roughly 206 points fewer than the 2011-21 Teams are combining for 462 yards passing per game — the second-lowest total since 2012 and 28 yards per game fewer than in 2021
However, despite the drop in passing game efficiency in 2022, run game efficiency has increased. While running plays typically are associated with less scoring for several reasons, (teams running the ball to drain the clock) overall net efficiency on run plays this season is approaching that of passing the ball.
Going beyond play type, what else has changed? Primarily it’s Defensive strategy. Schemes with snaps with multiple deep safeties have jumped in usage, this attempts so far successfully to limit the volume of big passing plays with the downside that teams can run into less crowded areas near the line of scrimmage.
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Betting Emporium results
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A £4000 bank betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £63,082.60 a 1477% increase
The Road to Riches Weekend of 8th-9th October
Coming up this weekend
- Horse Racing On the flat at Newmarket and York. Over the jumps at Chepstow, Hexham and Ffos Las and on the all-weather at Chelmsford.
- Football, Premier League fixtures include Arsenal v Liverpool
- NFL the new season continues with Week Five.
- Cricket, England’s T20 World Cup warm ups begin in Australia.
- Formula One, the Japanese Grand Prix
- Golf The ZOZO Championship on the USPGA and the Andulacia Masters on the DP World Tour
- Tennis ATP Florence and Gijon Opens
Free tip
English Premiership Rugby Bath v Gloucester Saturday 3pm
Bath lost 47-38 at London Irish last weekend their 4th Premiership loss on the spin in this new season, this following a dreadful season last seasn in which they finished bottom of the table (with fortuitously no relegation with only five wins from 24 games.
Unsurprisingly that led to a coaching overhaul and in came Johan Van Graan from Munster complete with a new team and new defensive system.
It’s been a difficult start though as the side has conceded 154 points in the four losses. The side is both young and unsettled with major injuries to internationals such as Underhill, Ewels and Obano plus last season’s top try scorer Muir, Coetzee, Spencer and de Glanville. Van Graan has bemoaned the big trauma injuries suffered by his squad and last weekend two more players went down, both with dislocated shoulders.
This week they’ve brought in four players on loan from suspended Worcester including Ted Hill and Ollie Lawrence and they are a side capable of very attractive rugby but it’s clearly going to take a while to translate that into results faced with the current headwinds.
Gloucester last season won 13 Premiership games and finished 5th much improved from the 11th place in coach George Skivington’s first season. They have only played two league games this season, beating Wasps 27-21 and losing right at the death 41-39 to Saracens
Gloucester are six or seven point favourites depending where you look and I expect them to cover
11 points Gloucester -6 points at 10/11 generally
Buzzkill
Wasps reportedly need to find £2 million in the next two weeks working days or the club will go into administration. HMRC issued the club with a winding-up order that prompted the club to file its intention with the High Court to appoint an administrator. £2m is needed to pay a tax bill.
In addition there is a problem surrounding £35m of bonds that the West Midlands club took out after purchasing the Coventry Building Society (then Ricoh) Arena in 2014. Bondholders should have been repaid in May, after they stumped up the cash to allow Wasps to raise money for their business and pay off debts.
The problem, however, is that those investors have not yet been repaid and, theoretically, could call the bond in at any time.
A Wasps statement said that filing a notice of intention to appoint administrators "does not mean the business is in administration but provides a crucial period of grace to continue negotiations with a number of interested parties to secure the long-term future of the group".
It would seem, therefore, that Wasps require time. Regardless, the threat of administration must be looming. It was also reported that Wasps has interest from overseas buyers, while chief operating officer Chris Holland has also been 'linked with a bid' to buy the club.
Mr Holland's company owns Wasps' training ground that was officially opened last summer in Henley-in-Arden
Following Worcester being placed into administration, there is more uncertainty for top Professional rugby in England
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Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated on 1st April 2022. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £59,082.60 All bets have an ROI +2.90%
A £4000 bank betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £63,082.60 a 1477% increase
The Road to Riches Weekend of 1st-2nd October
Coming up this weekend
- Horse Racing On the flat at Ascot, Newmarket and Redcar. Over the jumps at Fontwell and on the all-weather at Wolverhampton.
- Football, Premier League fixtures include the Manchester and North London derbies
- Rugby Union, the Rugby Championship, New Zealand v Australia and South Africa v Argentina
- NFL the new season continues with Week Four.
- Cricket, England’s tour of Pakistan continues.
- Formula One, the Singapore Grand Prix
- Golf The Shriners Children’s Open on the USPGA and the Open de Espana on the DP World Tour
- Tennis ATP Astana and Japan Opens
Free tip
English Premiership Rugby Saracens v Leicester Tigers Saturday 3pm
A repeat of the Play-off Final last year between the two sides that finished first and second in the league table, a game Leicester won 15-12 with brilliant defence.
This season, their second back in the top flight after their enforced relegation, Saracens have played 2 won 2 and last weekend beat Gloucester 41-39 away with two tries in the last five minutes and a Farrell kick to win it at the death.
Leicester meanwhile have won two of their three games, with only a narrow loss at Exeter falling behind right at the end before beating Newcastle and Northampton comfortably.
Saracens are 1-2 outright here and 6 point favourites on the handicap. I see this being very close. Whilst Leicester are missing Pollard and Watson and probably not quite the side they were last season the core of their side is a really competitive pack and excellent coaching has their tactics in defence and the kicking game usually spot on. The youngsters outside, notably the likes of Freddie Steward who scored a hat trick against Northampton, provide the firepower when games open up.
I expect this to be a one score game either way.
15 points Leicester +6 points at Evens Bet365 and 10/11 generally
Tension
A new-look County Championship comprising a first division of six teams, trials of the Kookaburra red ball, and a reduction of T20 Blast fixtures from 14 to 10, are among the 17 recommendations made in the men's High-Performance Review published by the ECB.
The review was commissioned in the wake of England's crushing defeat in the Ashes in January and was led by Andrew Strauss.
The report's recommendations are split into four categories, covering the specifics of high-performance, the need to equip players to compete in all conditions around the world, the creation of a domestic structure that is "best for counties, players, fans, and England men's team", and the overarching need to inspire future generations to take up the game.
The headlines under the proposals are
- A ten round County Championship (currently fourteen)
- A short 50 over competition in early season
- A shorter T20 Blast with 5 home matches each (currently eight)
- An unchanged Hundred competition through each August
This is going to be a tough sell, to say the least! Fifteen of the 17 recommendations can be voted on by the ECB board and implemented without recourse to the counties. The remaining two, however, relating to the T20 Blast and the restructuring of the County Championship, will require a two-thirds majority in a ballot of the 18 counties, and will almost certainly be met with opposition from members who face a reduction in first-class fixtures, and executives who rely on revenues from home Blast matches. The review envisages a reduction in a county's days of home cricket from 39 to as low as 26, a 33% fall.
15 counties are member owned and very likely to vote against the proposals. The review would condemn 10-12 Counties to a “feeder” club future with less fixtures. To win 12 votes, 6 would have to vote for their own demise.
Of course there are no easy answers, as the advent of the Hundred and a media deal to which the ECB are committed and the Hundred’s place in the calendar unalterable for now has put much strain on the schedule. Short of abandoning a 50 over competition, or merging counties, the tension between “high performance” and the County game is set to remain unresolved
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Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated on 1st April 2022. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £59,082.60 All bets have an ROI +2.90%
A £4000 bank betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £63,082.60 a 1477% increase
The Road to Riches: Weekend of 24th-25th September
Coming up this weekend
- Horse Racing On the flat at Chester, Haydock, Newmarket and Ripon. Over the jumps at Market Rasen and on the all weather at Chelmsford City.
- Football, UEFA Nations League matches including Italy v England
- Rugby Union, the Rugby Championship, New Zealand v Australia and South Africa v Argentina
- NFL the new season continues with Week Three
- Cricket, England’s tour of Pakistan begins
- Golf The Sanderson Farms Championship on the USPGA and the Alfred Dunhill Links at Carnoustie on the DP World Tour
- Tennis ATP Laver Cup at the O2 Arena
Free tip
English Premiership Rugby: Bristol v London Irish 3pm Saturday
Bristol are second in the early Premiership table, a point off leaders Sale with two wins out of two, first 31-29 at home to Bath and then at Wasps 23-8, the first signs of a tightening up of a defence which saw them concede 40 or more points in seven matches last season. Last season the side was very inconsistent, finishing 10th with 16 losses, following two seasons with back to back top four finishes.
This season, having recruited well notably the Leicester captain Ellis Genge a top eight finish and a return to European rugby seems likely.
London Irish finished 8th last season to clinch a European spot and picked up just one win from their final six matches to ruin their chances of the top four and the play-offs where they eventually missed out by 12 points.
This season they scored 45 points at home to the struggling Worcester warriors in week one then lost 22-38 at Northampton last weekend. With the talented young trio of Henry Arundell, Will Joseph, Ollie Hassell-Collins all sure to improve this season they will be looking to improve on 8th place.
Bristol are 4/11 favourites for this game at home, which is reasonable enough on current form and improved prospects for the season and -7 on the handicap, which I would expect them to cover in part because of their improved defence
11 points Bristol Bears -7 at 10/11 generally
Stonewall Jackson
The moment DeShaun Watson signed his five-year, fully guaranteed $230 million contract with the Browns earlier this year, Lamar Jackson’s negotiation with the Baltimore Ravens became much more difficult and, as it turned out, impossible. Watson’s was the first NFL mega contract to be fully guaranteed and it gave a lot of potential leverage to all the top-level quarterbacks and teed it up for players to change the way NFL teams do business, to change the leverage equation from team to player.
Subsequent contract extensions for Derek Carr, Kyler Murray and Russell Wilson reverted to the traditional team-friendly structure for top quarterbacks: two or three years guaranteed and the rest at the behest of the team. Jackson subsequently turned down $133m over 5 years and will play out this year on his $23 million option-year salary and “bet on himself”. His problem is the management-tilted NFL Collective Bargaining agreement gives teams like the Ravens the right to apply the franchise tag at the end of a contract, taking players like Jackson off the market completely, as applying a franchise tag locks them into their team for another year.
Come January, the Ravens will have had their starting quarterback, under contract on a fixed and reasonable rate for five years. And they have the right to have him under contract, albeit at a higher rate, next year and for two years after that. That would amount to eight years before Jackson could even sniff free agency.
Jackson is giving hope to all future elite players that the Watson contract was not an aberration but rather a precedent, and that NFL players truly can get contracts like NBA and MLB players.
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Results = points bet 26860 profit +1132.47 ROI +4.22% Full details here
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Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated on 1st July 2022. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £58,947.90 All bets have an ROI +2.85%
A £4000 bank betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £62,947.90 a 1474% increase
