Weekly Articles "Road to Riches" by Rich 'Tighty' Prew
The Road to Riches Weekend of 25th-26th February
Coming up this weekend
- Horse Racing Over the jumps at Chepstow, Kempton and Newcastle and on the all-weather at Chelmsford City and Lingfield
- Football Premier League Fixtures include Tottenham v Chelsea. The Carabao Cup Final Manchester United v Newcastle.
- Rugby Union, the third weekend of the Six Nations
- Cricket the second test match between New Zealand and England in Wellington continues
- Tennis ATP Opens in Dubai, Mexico and Chile
- Golf The Arnold Palmer Invitationa and Puerto Rico Open on the USPGA
The Cheltenham Festival
Neil’s package of selections for the Cheltenham Festival in mid-March costs £199 and you can subscribe here
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Free tip
Wales v England Six Nations Saturday 4.45pm
Wales were beaten by 24 points by Ireland at home in Round One, made five changes including dropping several of their most experienced players, went to Murrayfield and with their younger team produced an insipid performance and lost by 28 points.
That younger team saw Dafydd Jenkins, 20, Christ Tshiunza, 21, and Leicester flanker Tommy Reffell, 23, start with Alun Wyn Jones, 37, and Justin Tipuric, 33, left out of the squad and Taulupe Faletau, 32, dropped to the bench. For this game Liam Williams and George North are out of the 23 and Biggar is on the bench so the changing of the guard is well underway with nine changes from the Murrayfield game.
Welsh rugby has enormous structural issues around governance and funding of the regions. After the match there have been reports that such is the state of the professional game in Wales that many players are struggling with the current contract impasse. The four regions were given permission to negotiate new player contracts for this summer onwards but budgets have yet to be set. In truth the professional game in Wales probably can't support four regions. Things are so bad that player strike action had been mooted. Clearly not the best environment for the Welsh players to perform, they've missed at least one training session for this game, refused to appear at sponsor's events and can't be in the best frame of mind for this game. The Wales captain has described his team as a "laughing stock" over these events. The expected demise of the WRU 60 cap rule to be able to play international rugby if you play club rugby putside Wales is inevitable if domestic finances cannot match offers from other leagues.
On the pitch, against Scotland it was disappointing to see a side with no go forward, no flair in attack and clearly in what must be the very early stages of a complete rebuild on the pitch. If they lose here, with a trip to Rome and the visit of France to follow they’ll be staring down the barrel of a wooden spoon six months out from a World Cup.
England were really poor in defence against Scotland and disjointed in attack, responded by breaking up the Smith-Farrell axis, completely changed the midfield and beat Italy at Twickenham by 17 points with at least some punch off first phase and Jack Willis providing combatism at the breakdown.
What both these teams have in common is a lack of flair in their one-dimensional attacks in huge contrast to the pace and creativity showed by the current Ireland, France and Scotland teams.
England scored five tries against Italy, the first four from driving mauls and the majority would have been defended by the top sides. England have a long way to go from relying on line out drives to build a lead.
Top level rugby is cyclical but rebuilding in a World Cup year is obviously not ideal. Whilst Wales obviously expected that rebuild at some stage in the next year or two it appears to be on their hands now but England probably didn’t think they were facing a rebuild until towards the end of the Eddie Jones era when results became poor and now Steve Borthwick has to find his best team with three competitive games to go until the Rugby World Cup warm-up fixtures.
“These teams are in the final year of their four-year plan,” said Borthwick after the Italy match. “They’ve used the four years really well and now they’re putting the finishing touches to it. They know their selection, the caps under their belt, they’re arriving at the World Cup with the right number of caps, you’ve spent the right amount of time together as players and a coaching group. We’re not in that situation. The way we train, play and the way we approach our off-field preparation is that we’re maximising every minute.”
With both of these teams a long way off attacking prowess this should be a close attritional match. England are favourites away from home, -6 on the handicap from -3 before the off the field issues for Wales moved to centre stage, which is understandable enough. They are not quite in the depths that Wales are, but they remain vulnerable whilst installing defensive patterns. Wales are available at 2/1+. A narrow victory for England looks likely.
10 points England to win by 1-7 points 13/5 BetVictor (11/4 Betfair Sportsbook and Paddy Power)
Transition
The Baltimore Ravens will place the franchise tag on quarterback Lamar Jackson if the sides cannot agree to a long-term deal in the coming weeks and there is a possibility other teams could tempt Baltimore to trade the former NFL MVP for a windfall of draft picks.
Jackson played out his rookie deal last season, refused the offered contract extension and is unsigned for the 2023 season. Jackson's desire for more fully guaranteed money in line with De Shaun Watson’s 5 year $230m deal with the Cleveland Browns has kept the sides from striking a deal, despite Baltimore making multiple offers.
If the sides don't come to terms on a long-term deal before the March 7 tag deadline, the likelihood is still that Jackson plays in Baltimore but there are multiple ways Jackson could end up playing elsewhere in 2023. The Ravens could tag Jackson and explore options for a trade, with surely no shortage of suitors for one of the NFL's most dynamic talents.
There is a structural shortage of bona-fide NFL starting quarterbacks, and not all of that demand can be satisfied via the draft and potential veteran options such as Aaron Rodgers and Derek Carr.
If Baltimore places the non-exclusive franchise tag (worth $32.4m) on Jackson, that would allow him to negotiate a contract with another team; if the Ravens don't match, they'd get two first-round picks as compensation and Jackson would get a new home. The non-exclusive tag also could potentially allow the Ravens to keep Jackson for the long haul by letting another team negotiate the long-term deal, which Baltimore then could match. The more expensive exclusive franchise tag would prevent Jackson from negotiating with any other team.
This situation has been years in the making as Jackson played for just $1.77m in 2021 and on his $23m fifth-year option in 2022.
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The Road to Riches Weekend of 18th-19th February
Coming up this weekend
- Horse Racing Over the jumps at Ascot, Haydock and Wincanton and on the all-weather at Lingfield and Newcastle
- Football Premier League Fixtures include Newcastle v Liverpool.
- Cricket the first test match between New Zealand and England in Tauranga continues
- Tennis ATP Opens in Marseille, Qatar and Rio
- Golf The Honda Classic on the USPGA and the Indian Open on the DP World Tour
The Cheltenham Festival
Neil’s package of selections for the Cheltenham Festival in mid-March costs £199 and you can subscribe here
Free tip
Gallagher Premiership Bath v London Irish 3pm Saturday
Two sides in the bottom half of the table meeting in the Six Nations break weekend. Bath with only 4 wins from their 12 games sit second bottom whilst London Irish have just the five wins from 13 games, good enough for 7th
Bath finished 13th last season and appointed a new coach Johan Van Der Graan from South Africa via Munster. Despite considerable investment in overhauling the squad, improvements were limited in the first half of the season but form has picked up either side of Christmas. Going into the last game at Sale they had won four of their last six Premiership matches and then only lost to Sale 30-27 to a last minute try having been down to 13 men in the second half. They have the third best defensive record in the division and are getting healthier. With the squad supplemented by ex-Worcester players Ollie Lawrence and Ted Hill they’ll be hopeful of climbing a few places through until May.
London Irish finished 8th last season and have some notable results recently. In their last game they beat Harlequins 42-24 and beat Saracens too before a disappointing Champions Cup where they were bundled out of the pool stages with just the one draw in four matches.
With Bath improving and strong defensively, at home they are 8/13 outright and three-point handicap favourites but the value is Irish outright at 11/8 and 6/4 in a place
10 points London Irish to beat Bath at 6/4 Betfair Sportsbook, 13/10 Bet365, BetVictor, Ladbrokes/Coral
Transition
Test cricket is inexorably transitioning to a two-tier system with the big three – India, Australia and England on full schedules and the remainder of the teams playing much less long format cricket. As an example South Africa are scheduled to play just 28 Tests in the 2023–2027 cycle. South Africa don't have a three-match Test series now for two years and have gone from four and five-Test series to three and now to two. There are other examples too. Such is the crowded nature of the cricket calendar that the New Zealand England series just starting is only two matches. There's no way that many countries can build or sustain a Test cricket system when your national team is playing so little
There is real interest in franchise leagues now, and the white-ball game. Smaller countries are always going to be more affected because it really is about the economic equation in the end, and most countries now have franchise leagues. It's really tough for the smaller Test-playing nations to rely on the Test game to survive as the financial support from the ICC to host series is insufficient and the cost of running series exceeds revenue from them given waning demand for tickets
This disproportionately affects sides in addition to South Africa such as the West Indies, Sri Lanka, New Zealand and Bangladesh whose governing boards don’t have the resources that the Big three have. It also affects countries like Zimbabwe, Afghanistan, Ireland, Scotland, Netherlands who want to play Tests but cannot because the cash is not there to host, so the growth of the game is being affected.
The ICC needs to make Test cricket a viable proposition for all Test-playing nations, otherwise we will end up watching three international teams – Australia, England and India – playing Test cricket against each other.
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The Road to Riches Weekend of 11th-12th February
Coming up this weekend
- Horse Racing Over the jumps at Newbury, Uttoxeter and Warwick and on the all-weather at Lingfield and Wolverhampton
- Football Premier League Fixtures include West Ham v Chelsea and Leeds v Manchester United.
- Rugby Union the second round of the Six Nations Championship
- Tennis ATP Opens in Rotterdam and Delray Beach
- Golf The Genesis Invitational on the USPGA and the Thailand Classic on the DP World Tour
The Cheltenham Festival
Neil’s package of selections for the Cheltenham Festival in mid-March costs £199 and you can subscribe here
Free tip
Six Nations Round 2 Ireland v France 2.15pm Saturday
A match that has long been identified as the key game for the destination of this year’s championship and billed as a grand slam decider.
Last weekend Ireland opened their campaign with a 34-10 over Wales scoring 27 points in the first 25 minutes and leading 27-3 at half time. They dominated the go-forward phases and the contact area. Ireland are effectively taking Leinster's team and sticking it into an Ireland jersey and playing exactly the same way. With the intricacy of their attack and the understanding they have no surprise they have early cohesion, compared to other teams.
This was achieved without scrum-half Gibson-Park and tight head Furlong, two key player losses that persist for this weekend but Ireland is a squad with depth.
France won in Rome 29-24 against a much-improved Italy side. Their bonus point win was their 14th in a row, despite turning in their most ill-disciplined and disjointed performance in ages. They conceded 18 penalties in Rome the most ever by a Shaun Edwards-coached side in 20 years. I’d expect them to be much better this weekend with the rust knocked off them last weekend.
Where Ireland had the better of the close quarters against Wales this will be a huge contest, and likely to be a very close game. Under Andy Farrell Ireland are the world’s top ranked side but they’ve yet to beat France including when France won when last in Dublin, 15-13 in 2021
Home advantage should enable Ireland to win a close one probably closer than Ireland 4/9 France 2/1 implies. Ireland are 5 point favourites on the handicap
10 Points Ireland to win by 1-7 points at 11/4 Betfair Sportsbook/Paddy Power 5/2 BetVictor
Crossroads
Barely a week goes by during the rugby season without some controversy on the disciplinary front. Just about the one consistent factor right now seems to be inconsistency. Controversy with refereeing, poor tackle technique and foul play are all regularly under the microscope. In particular there has been huge debate over the contrasting way incidents of head contact are being handled. The RFU has contributed to the uncertainty by issuing guidelines first for the amateur game of tackles only below waist height, guidance reversed quickly in response to the uproar that followed.
Yet again, the game finds itself at a crossroads following events of recent weeks. The ever- increasing focus on dementia cases and litigation puts an even greater onus on the powers-that-be to find a way of reducing head contact and concussion.
The game is still dealing with the legacy of years of rugby league-influenced coaching where the emphasis was on upright, ball-and-all tackles designed to prevent defence-splitting offloads. That became ingrained in the sport and moving away from that is clearly proving a challenge. Yet it’s that technique which is behind much of the concerning contact we see whether it be head-on-head or shoulder on head.
So the game needs to decide whether it is really serious about stamping it out and getting players to lower their tackle height. There is an argument that the only way to change behaviour once and for all is to have a zero tolerance approach when it comes to head contact as a result of upright tackling.
At present, there is perhaps too much focus on mitigation where we look for factors that allow sanction to be reduced to a yellow card. In particular, the issue of force and the difference between dominant and absorbing tackles has taken centre stage.
Yet judging force is such a subjective thing and even if a tackler isn’t smashing into an opponent, significant damage can result from a collision. By the same token, a lack of intent or an impact being accidental doesn’t change the scale of the impact, so really shouldn’t come into the disciplinary process.
At the moment, contention and confusion abounds. We need a much simpler and more straightforward framework when it comes to head contact, with fewer caveats, and there needs to be clarity and consistency, moving away from mitigation and enforcing the kind of change in behaviour which saw the spear tackle eradicated.
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The Road to Riches Weekend of 4th-5th February
Coming up this weekend
- Horse Racing Over the jumps at Musselburgh, Sandown and Wetherby and on the all-weather at Lingfield and Kempton Park
- Football Premier League Fixtures include Tottenham v Manchester City.
- Rugby Union the start of the Six Nations Championship
- Tennis ATP Opens in Cordoba, Dallas and Montpellier
- Golf The Phoenix Open on the USPGA and the Singapore Classic on the DP World Tour
The Cheltenham Festival
Neil’s package of selections for the Cheltenham Festival in mid-March costs £199 and you can subscribe here
Free tip
Six Nations Round 1: Wales v Ireland Saturday 2.15pm
Last year in Dublin Ireland beat Wales 29-7 on their way to the Triple Crown. This game should be much closer.
Home defeats against Italy and Georgia underpinned Wayne Pivac’s departure less than a year out from the World Cup, so returning Wales coach Warren Gatland has little time to try and turn things around for Wales. As most of the squad are familiar with him and his style (strong defence, good kicking game, fierce competition at the breakdown) then that should be relatively straightforward.
Wales do though remain underpowered in the forwards though, and when up against teams such as France, England and Ireland, it will likely be hard to compete in the power stakes within contact or at the set-piece. Their key players are also beyond their peak years too. Ken Owens is 36 yet still Wales' best hooker, second row Alun Wyn-Jones is now 37, while back-row Justin Tipuric is 33, fly-half Dan Biggar is 33, and full-back Leigh Halfpenny is 34. For Gatland and these players, its eyes on the Autumn World Cup then no doubt a more substantial overhaul for 2024 onwards but for now though, this is a team with 952 test caps and very streetwise.
Many of the squad come into the Championship in good form. Fifteen Ospreys players have made the squad. The Welsh regions have been very poor in recent seasons, but this year the Ospreys have picked up landmark Heineken Champions Cup victories at Montpellier and Leicester Tigers, as well as beating the French side at home to book a Round of 16 spot.
Ireland won 4 out of 5 games last year and are favourites for the Championship this. World ranked number one after winning a Test series in New Zealand last year, then toppling South Africa and Australia they of course draw on the players from the pre-eminent European side Leinster with key players including lock Tadhg Beirne, Openside Josh van der Flier who was named World Player of the Year for 2022 after a prolonged period of great performances and Jonny Sexton, still the best fly-half in the country though he comes into the tournament fresh from injury and without a prep.
Ireland should win of course and are best priced 4/11 to do so, Wales 2/1 up to +7 on the handicap. I don’t think the winning margin will beyond a score or at most 10 points though. Gatland will have Wales set up to play territory, to compete at the breakdown and spoil
12 points Ireland to win by 1-12 points at 8/5 Betfred 6/4 Bet365
England won only one of the last 17 Test matches that they played under Joe Root, culminating in an 1-0 series defeat last spring in the Caribbean. Under their new skipper and coach, however, it's been nine wins and only one defeat in 10 for England with constant attack and bold declarations. Last summer in Birmingham, England chased down 378 to beat India by seven wickets. Earlier in the season targets that previously would have daunted them against New Zealand were also overhauled at Lord's, Trent Bridge and Headingley. “Bazball” faces its greatest test this summer in a home Ashes series.
What other examples have there been in sport in which a change of style has transformed results? Thanks in part to Hollywood perhaps the best known is the baseball side the Oakland Athleticss. In 2001 they finished second in the American League West. They lost a trio of star players. Expectations were gloomy. Using 'Moneyball' techniques Billy Beane signed a number of 'under-the-radar' free agent players; they embarked on a winning sequence of 20 successive games, and finished top of their division that year.
Then of course there are the “Cinderella” stories such as Leicester City, Premier League champions in 2015/16 under Claudio Ranieri, after finishing 14th the previous season and Greece unexpectedly winning the 2004 European Football Championships.
Of course, there is work to do for the England cricket team. This summer's Ashes is followed by a trip down under 2025/26. Until it's adopted by other countries it won't be a game changer outside this present English regime. Only time will tell whether it's a freak run of results or it assumes a legacy across the wider game.
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Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated on 1st January 2023. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £61,936 All bets have an ROI +2.91%
A £4000 bank betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £61,936 a 1448% increase
The Road to Riches Weekend of 28th-29th January
Coming up this weekend
- Horse Racing Over the jumps at Ascot, Haydock and Taunton and on the all-weather at Lingfield and Wolverhampton
- Football The Fourth round of the FA Cup
- NFL The Conference Championships.
- Cricket the One Day International series between South Africa and England continues in Bloemfontein on Sunday
- Tennis the Australian Open concludes
- Golf The Pebble Beach Pro-Am on the USPGA and the Ras-Al-Khaimah Desert Classic on the DP World Tour
The Cheltenham Festival
Neil’s package of selections for the Chelteham Festival in mid-March costs £199 and you can subscribe HERE
Free tip
The 2023 Six Nations
In the key game in last year’s Six Nations France beat Ireland 30-24 in Paris on their way to a Grand Slam title. It was the only game that Ireland lost.
This season once again the two sides are the favourites, it’s 9/2 bar the front two. However in 2023 the schedule reverses. Ireland the two toughest looking games at home, England and France and France have three games away.
Added spice to the tournament is provided by the return of Warren Gatland as Wales coach and Steve Borthwick replacing Eddie Jones at England.
With Ireland at home to France and likely to be narrow favourites for the game in which both sides are likely to be favourites to beat any other side in the competition its tempting to consider their prospects for the Grand Slam. However a Grand Slam is available at 3/1 currently, and Evens no Grand Slam. Why might that be? Well firstly Ireland travel to Cardiff first up, a more formidable prospect than it might have been a few weeks ago with a change of coach and grittier team selection
Secondly every team is going to have to contend with extra variance on results from the incidence of yellow and red cards and new tackling laws.
Thirdly Wales should be much more competitive, Italy should win a game or two too if their improvement continues as it did at the back end of last year’s tournament, so we could see a very close championship
In the outright market prices are as follows
Ireland 11/8
France 13/8
England 9/2
Wales 14/1
Scotland 25/1
Italy 500/1
Ireland look good favourites to me with the Ireland/France game in Dublin clearly the key
16 points Ireland to win the Six Nations Championship at 11/8 generally
Spicy
Warren Gatland is back as Wales head coach ahead of the Six Nations, while Eddie Jones has returned to lead Australia following his England departure. Wales and Australia are both in Pool C for this year's Rugby World Cup and meet in Lyon on September 24. Intriguingly both sides are in the same half of the World Cup draw as England, and the consensus expectation would be that one of the two sides would meet England in the Quarter-Finals depending on who finishes first and second in their groups, with now added spice to both potential encounters.
2022 was a hard year for the Wallabies. In the July test series against England, they won the opening game in Perth 30-28, but went on to lose the series losing 17-25 in Brisbane and 17-21 in Sydney. In their opening Rugby Championship match against Argentina, they were down 16-10 at halftime but made a comeback to win 26-41 in Mendoza, only for them to get thumped by the Pumas 48-17 the next week. They then dominated the Springboks 25-17 in Adelaide, but got beaten the next week in Sydney by the Boks (8-24) Then in September the Wallabies dropped to their lowest-ever World Rugby ranking after losing to the All Blacks in Melbourne. The team fell to ninth on World Rugby's rankings ladder. They sunk even lower after losing 40-14 to the All Blacks at Eden Park. The Wallabies then managed a close win against Scotland at Murrayfield (15-16) but went on to lose to France (30-29), a stunning loss to Italy (28-27) and to world no. 1 Ireland (13-10). The Wallabies were down 34-13 to Wales after 58 minutes of their last game of the season, but pulled off another comeback to finish a woeful season on a high (34-39) and are currently the sixth ranked side in the World, up from their low of 9th in the middle of last year.
Jones previously coached the Wallabies from 2001 to 2005, guiding them to the 2003 World Cup final where they were beaten by England, and has been swiftly re-appointed on a five-year contract after his England exit in place of Dave Rennie.
Of course ten months is not much time to do root and branch reform but no doubt there will be overtures to rugby league players to join the squad and selection changes in time for the Autumn
Gatland enjoyed a hugely successful 12-year spell as Wales head coach from 2007 to 2019, overseeing four Six Nations triumphs and three Grand Slams during that period, as well as finishing runners-up twice. He then returned home to take up a position with Super Rugby outfit Chiefs along with leading the British and Irish Lions on their 2021 tour of South Africa, but the door opened for his return after Wayne Pivac was sacked in December after a disappointing 2021 which included defeats to Italy and Georgia.
Already in his squad selection for the upcoming Six Nations you can see clues as to the approach with a bigger team with more ball winners in the back row. At its core, Wales are an experienced team for whom the World Cup will be last hurrah for the likes of Wyne-Jones, Faletau, Biggar, North and Halfpenny. With that experience and Gatland’s knowledge a quick fix towards at least competitiveness in 2023 is very likely.
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Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated on 1st January 2023. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £61,936 All bets have an ROI +2.91%
A £4000 bank betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £61,936 a 1448% increase
