Weekly Articles "Road to Riches" by Rich 'Tighty' Prew
The Road to Riches Weekend of 25th-26th March
Coming up this weekend
- Horse Racing Over the jumps at Bangor, Kelso and Newbury and on the all-weather at Lingfield and Wolverhampton.
- Football European Championship Qualifying, England v Ukraine
- Tennis the ATP Miami Open continues
- Golf The Valero Texas Open on the USPGA
Aintree Grand National Festival (Full Package) 13th-15th April 2023
Subscription available now for £99 here
Free Tip
Leicester v Bristol Gallagher Premiership Saturday 12.30pm
Leicester are third in the Premiership league table with nine wins and a draw from their 17 games and have three home games to go in the regular season, looking for a top four finish to head into the play-offs to back up their Grand Final win last year. With their international players back post Six Nations and ahead of the Champions Cup last sixteen next weekend they are one of the squads within the league with enviable depth at all positions.
Leicester have in the last month beaten Bath, Gloucester, Irish and Saracens to climb back into the top four.
Bristol meanwhile sit 7th, with seven wins so far this season and three of those seven wins have come in the last three games putting 50 points on Harlequins and 60 points on Northampton following a nervy 15-13 win at Bath, which at the time was a battle of bottom two in the league. Until this run consistency has been a huge problem all season for a flair side. They still have an outside shot at the top four.
Leicester at home are a tough proposition but with Bristol also in great form this should be a close game. Leicester are 4/11 outright and Bristol 11/5 and +7 on the handicap. With their excellent form and ability to run in tries they have a reasonable shot of the cover here
10 points Bristol +7 at Evens Bet365, 10/11 generally
Regulate
Blocking clubs from joining a breakaway European Super League will be among the powers held by English football's new independent regulator in a plan confirmed by the UK government.
Preventing historic clubs going out of business is one of the aims, as well as giving fans greater input and a new owners' and directors' test.
The main purposes of the proposed new regulator will be:
- Stopping English clubs from joining closed-shop competitions, which are judged to harm the domestic game
- Preventing a repeat of financial failings seen at numerous clubs, notably the collapses of Bury and Macclesfield
- Introducing a more stringent owners' and directors' test to protect clubs and fans
- Giving fans power to stop owners changing a club's name, badge and traditional kit colours
- Ensuring a fair distribution of money filters down the English football pyramid from the Premier League
The Premier League was understood to be wary of a regulatory body when the proposals were announced in April last year.The league says it is "vital" a regulator does not lead to any "unintended consequences" that could affect its global appeal and success.
Six English clubs were among those from across the continent that announced plans to form a European Super League in April 2021.Fans quickly demonstrated their anger a forcing the Premier League clubs to back down and apologise. The regulator will have the power to prevent English clubs from joining new competitions that do not meet a pre-determined criteria, in consultation with the FA and fans.
A new licensing system will require every club from the Premier League to the National League to prove it has a sustainable business model implemented by responsible custodians as part of an application process. If clubs are not granted a license by the regulator, they will not be allowed to compete.
The test to determine the suitability of owners and directors of English clubs has long been under scrutiny. The regulator will introduce an "enhanced" test which will operate alongside the current process implemented by the Premier League, Football League and Football Association.
The suitability of Premier League's owners' and directors' test has been criticised in the past, most recently following the Saudi Arabian-backed takeover of Newcastle.
The regulator will have backstop powers to impose a new financial settlement, which effectively means it can force the Premier League to share more money across the pyramid.
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The Road to Riches Weekend of 18th-19th March
Coming up this weekend
- Horse Racing Over the jumps at Fontwell, Kempton, Newcastle and Uttoxeter and on the all-weather at Wolverhampton.
- Football the FA Cup Quarter Finals and Premier League Fixtures
- Rugby Union, the final Round of the Six Nations
- Formula One, the Saudi Arabia Grand Prix
- Tennis the ATP Miami Open
- Golf The WGC Dell Match Play, the Corales Punta Cana Championship on the USPGA and the Jonsson Workwear Open on the DP World Tour
Free tip
2023 IPL Ante-Post
The sixteenth year of the IPL will feature ten teams, including the Gujarat Titans who won the title in their debut season in 2022
Shivam Dube, who played for Gujarat Titans, was the star performer of the 2022 IPL. He scored the most runs (618) and took 14 wickets with his medium-pace bowling. He hit four half-centuries and one hundred, with a strike rate of 167. He was also awarded the Player of the Tournament. More of him in a bit.
Punjab Kings made history at the IPL 2023 auction by buying Sam Curran for 18.5 crores, making him the priciest player ever in IPL history. Cameron Green was bought by Mumbai for 17.50 crore, and Ben Stokes was bought by CSK for 16.25 crore, becoming CSK’s most expensive player ever
A change is the return of the home-and-away format for this year. This format was utilised in the IPL until 2019 but was suspended in 2020 and 2021 due to the COVID-19 pandemic, which compelled the tournament to be conducted in limited venues in UAE and then in 2022 at a single centre in India, Mumbai. This year therefore we’ll see a wider variety of conditions, potential more home advantage in play for some teams too.
Another change for the 2023 IPL is the new Impact Player rule. Under this rule, every team is allowed to name four additional players, in addition to their playing XI, before the match starts. One of these four players can replace any player in the XI before the 14th over of the innings. This rule aims to add more tactics to the game, as teams can use the impact player to attempt to change the course of the match.
Each of the ten teams has star players and potential match winners and as the market tells us this is a very competitive heat.
Ante-post prices, with each way terms of half odds top two available are as follows:
Gujarat Titans 11/2
Delhi Capitals 6/1
Mumbai Indians 6/1
Rajasthan Royals 7/1
Royal Challengers Bangalore 7/1
Lucknow Super Giants 8/1
Punjab Kings 8/1
Kolkota Knight Riders 10/1
Chennai Super Kings 10/1
Sunrisers Hyderabad 12/1
Mumbai, with 5 IPL wins and CSK with 4 titles, really underperformed last year each with only 4 wins each in 14 matches and in the betting this time Mumbai are second favourites whereas Chennai available at up to 10/1….
CSK are habitually one of the top franchises. Shivam Dube has joined this year to add to the core players (Dhoni in probably his last IPL, Jadeja etc) who won 4 titles. There are a couple of concerns, with injury doubts about Stokes for example and mostly inexperienced fast bowling options for the death overs, but the return to home and away fixtures is probably a relative advantage for CSK with slow and low spin friendly pitches at home in Chepauk usually the order of the day.
At up to 10-1 CSK look a value proposition to me
10 points each way (1/2 1,2) Chennai Super Kings to win the 2023 IPL at 10-1 BetVictor and 9-1 generally
The Wrong Track
Defending champion Max Verstappen picked up where he left off to take the opening race of the new season Bahrain Grand Prix, with Red Bull team-mate Sergio Perez joining him in a team 1-2.
George Russell and Lewis Hamilton started only sixth and seventh respectively as the Mercedes men finished more than six tenths behind Verstappen in qualifying and Hamilton finished over 50 seconds behind the winner in the race.
A gloomy Hamilton said his team are on the “wrong track”, had fallen further behind his rivals and questioned whether Mercedes’ concept will allow him to compete for a record eighth world championship. Team principal Toto Wolff then conceded that the constructor will have to abandon their controversial zero-sidepod concept in order to challenge again.
“I don’t think that this package is going to be competitive eventually. We gave it our best go over the winter and now we all just need to regroup, sit down with the engineers, be totally non-dogmatic and ask what is the development direction we want to pursue in order to be able to win races.
“The moment comes when the stopwatch comes out and that showed us that we are not good enough. We got it wrong last year. We thought we could fix it by sticking to the concept of car but it didn’t work out. So we just need to switch our focus on to what we believe is the right direction.”
Mercedes claimed just one victory last season with a car Hamilton said he could not wait to consign to the history books.
Yet they decided to evolve their concept rather than start from scratch, despite seeing rivals Red Bull adopt a completely different sidepod design to win 17 of last year’s 22 rounds.
Hamilton is entering the final season of his £40m-a-year deal but earlier this week he said he has no plans to retire, even if Mercedes fail to deliver him a winning machine.
For Mercedes it might help that Red Bull development through this season could be compromised by cost cap punishments including limited wind tunnel time, but the new regulations limit the amount of spend by the top teams anyway in attempts to even up the field, and in this respect during Q1 of Qualifying for the first race the field was split by less than a second.
Much more Mercedes underperformance though, and the speculation about a possible Hamilton move to Ferrari at the end of his contract will intensify.
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A £4000 bank betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £61,936 a 1448% increase
The Road to Riches Weekend of 11th-12th March
Coming up this weekend
- Horse Racing Over the jumps at Doncaster, Kelso and Newbury and on the all-weather at Lingfield and Wolverhampton.
- Football Premier League Fixtures include Fulham v Arsenal and Crystal Palace v Manchester City
- Rugby Union, the Fourth Round of the Six Nations
- Cricket the T20 series between Bangladesh and England continues
- Tennis the ATP BNP Paribas Open at Indian Wells continues
- Golf The Valspar Championship on the USPGA and the SDC Championship on the DP World Tour
The Cheltenham Festival
Neil’s package of selections for the Cheltenham Festival in mid-March costs £199 and you can subscribe here
Free tip
Italy v Wales 2.15pm Saturday ITV
This should be a cracking Six Nations Weekend. Italy are fast improving, France are not quite the force of last year and Scotland/Ireland should be a thriller and what might have been seen as easy wins for Wales/France/Ireland pre-tournament looks likely to be anything but now.
As explained in more detail below Italy are improving rapidly towards competitiveness playing an exciting brand of rugby that has seen them win nearly half of their Test Matches in 2022 then run France close at home in the first game of this year’s Six Nations, also causing problems to both England and Ireland in the two games since.
In last year’s Six Nations Italy scored five tries, they already have six in the three games so far this year. The absence through injury of Capuozzo is a blow of course, a tremendous finisher from full back.
This match is likely to settle who will finish bottom of the Championship and “win” the Wooden Spoon and Wales come to the game with three losses by 24,28 then 10 points so far.
Amongst the myriad problems facing the side is determining what is the best current team in the run up to the World Cup but also beyond that and the stage of the current four year World cup cycle isn’t helpful as the need to be at least competitive this October in France is acting as a brake on implementing a complete rebuild towards youth that might take place at a different point in the major tournament cycle.
The sides being picked are currently a mix of the old guard and inexperienced players with no discernible playing style. In the first three games of this Championship they have emptied the entire squad and although some combinations have worked better than others, the result is very little attacking threat. The side is cumbersome in attack, struggling at the breakdown and displaying no real forward power. Back in the first Gatland era, attacking wasn't breath-taking but it was effective. In part because there was a good mix of ball carriers and Wales could keep possession for the hefty number of phases they needed to create the space. At the moment, Wales can't keep hold of the ball and they can't smash holes. Ideally they need to play wide to get the ball to their wings. Theoretically that's fine. But if you can't make space when the ball is there then the theory falls flat. The wide players are running at walls of defenders.
After their win in Cardiff last year, Italy have a real opportunity here yet are marginal home underdogs. This seems like a value opportunity to get a reward for their performances in the Championship so far.
15 points Italy to win 11/10 Bet365, BetVictor, Betfred
Renaissance
After half a decade of losing performances at Test level, Italy finally saw the fruits of a long-term process of youth development and shrewd decision-making last year. They won five of their 11 Test matches, giving them a win rate of 45%. That was the highest in a calendar year since 2007, and the highest in a non-Rugby World Cup year since 1998. The famous win in Wales on Super Saturday ended a run of 36 straight Six Nations defeats and was followed up in the autumn by a first-ever Test victory over Australia.
Early 2023 has seen more encouragement. In the first round of the U20 Six Nations Italy lost to France 28-27 with only a missed conversion preventing victory. For the senior side there have been defeats in the first three rounds of the Six Nations to France by 5 points, in England by 17 points and to Ireland by 14 points but they’ve shown thrilling free flowing rugby as the side has moved towards competitiveness at last.
Their attempts to play an expansive, free flowing style can be seen in the stat charts, too: they have the second-most metres made and carries overall (behind Ireland), while being bottom for metres kicked and top for passes made.
The root and branch overhaul of Italian rugby began in 2016 with Conor O’Shea’s appointment as Italy coach which heralded the first major changes to the development system, and his decision to bring in former Irish youth chief Stephen Aboud to oversee it was important.
Aboud is widely credited with being a driving force behind kick-starting the conveyer belt of talent in Ireland, set up an academy system that helped identify players at a young age before guiding and nurturing them towards reaching elite rugby. The results soon came. While the senior side had failed to win a game since 2015 until their triumph in Cardiff, the Italy Under-20s have notched at least one win in each of the last five editions. The Azzurrini have finished fourth twice and fifth twice, all of their wins coming against Scotland and Wales until a historic first-ever victory over England last year when they won 3 of 5 matches.
As the younger players have made their way to the senior squad the Italian game has become less insular. In 2020 two of the 32 players in the Italy squad played for clubs outside of their home country. The 2023 squad has 10 overseas-based players, including the likes of Capuozzo at Toulouse, Garbisi at Montpellier and six Premiership-based players.
Kieran Crowley’s arrival as coach in May 2021 took things to the next step. The World Cup-winning former All Black came after a successful five-year spell in charge of Benetton. Benetton went from perennial underachievers to serious competitors; they were the first Italian club to reach the Pro14 play-offs in 2018/19, and in 2020/21 they made history by becoming the first team from Italy to win an international trophy by clinching the Rainbow Cup.
In the short term the march towards consistent competitiveness is accelerating with the young talent forming a great part of the senior squads. Unfortunately the 2023 World Cup in the Autumn is going to be tough, they find themselves in a pool, with two teams going through, containing New Zealand and France but as their World Ranking continues to rise from its current 13th then the prospects for an easier draw for the 2027 version improve, by which time Italy will be a real force to be reckoned with.
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Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated on 1st January 2023. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £61,936 All bets have an ROI +2.91%
A £4000 bank betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £61,936 a 1448% increase
The Road to Riches Weekend of 4th-5th March
Coming up this weekend
- Horse Racing Over the jumps at Doncaster, Kelso and Newbury and on the all-weather at Lingfield and Wolverhampton.
- Football Premier League Fixtures include Manchester City v Newcastle and Liverpool v Manchester United.
- Formula One, the Bahrain Grand Prix begins the new season
- Cricket the ODI series between Bangladesh and England continues
- Tennis ATP BNP Paribas Open at Indian Wells
- Golf The Players Championship at TPC Sawgrass on the USPGA and the Kenya Open on the DP World Tour
The Cheltenham Festival
Neil’s package of selections for the Cheltenham Festival in mid-March costs £199 and you can subscribe here
Free tip
Bangladesh v England 2nd ODI Mirpur Friday 6am, SkySports
England are playing three ODIs and three T20Is as they tour Bangladesh for the first time since 2016. The series was rescheduled from 2021 due to the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic and now represents part of their run up to their World Cup title defence in India in October and November
This is England’s sixth tour of a Covid catch up winter that has seen separate sides contest Test and ODI formats, so for example this side lacks Harry Brook plus there is the extra challenge of franchise cricket around the world running alongside this series and Sam Billings and Alex Hales have opted out of this series to play in the PSL.
Captained by Jos Buttler, the squad follows that selected for the recent ODI tour of South Africa including the continued return of Jofra Archer. In that three game South Africa series Buttler top scored with 261 from 250 balls ahead of Dawid Malan 189 runs from 184 balls. The balls faced by the next highest England batsman was 117. This illustrates that, on good pitches, batsmen in the top 3 such as Malan and potentially Buttler have ample opportunity to get in and build innings. The same is likely to apply in Bangladesh, though on the evidence of a low scoring first game of the series the pitches should be more responsive to spin than in South Africa.
Bangladesh beat India 2-1 in an ODI series in December and are an experienced talented side whose strength on these pitches is likely to be in their spinners as innings progress, particularly if England are batting second. With England having lost three of their last four ODI series, unheralded Bangladesh are likely to go off value for each game at 7/4+.
In the player markets conditions point to Malan having the best opportunity to top score in the Top England batsman market given that the openers are the “boom or bust” Jason Roy and fellow dasher Phil Salt and that the top three will get the best of the conditions before the spinners take hold and the ball gets older.
10 points Dawid Malan Top England batsman 2nd ODI 3/1 generally
Exodus
Steve Borthwick has called on the Rugby Football Union to ensure he is able to select the strongest possible England team as fears grow over the escalating player exodus from the Gallagher Premiership.
Among the changes sought by Warren Gatland’s Wales squad was to scrap the contentious minimum 60-cap Test selection rule for internationals employed overseas. Instead, it has been reduced to 25 as a compromise, putting into sharp focus the RFU’s own prohibition on England choosing players operating outside the Premiership except in exceptional circumstances.
The rule will be a critical area of debate in negotiations over the new ‘Professional Game Agreement’, which comes into effect in 2024.
Sam Simmonds, Luke Cowan-Dickie, Joe Marchant and David Ribbans are heading to Top 14 clubs after the World Cup and the fear is that the riches available in France and Japan will see more stars follow. English clubs operate within a salary cap more restrictive than that seen in France and clubs are competitively limited in their ability to retain all their star players.
It is against this backdrop that Borthwick has laid out his position to the RFU in the hope that he is not left selecting from a position of weakness.
Rugby is beset by myriad challenges that threaten the sport’s existence, most notably finances, concussion and declining player numbers at grass roots level.
Premiership club Wasps and Worcester have gone bust, with Leicester taking out emergency funding to avoid a similar fate, and there is unrest among professional players in the English game.
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Results = points bet 26860 profit +1132.47 ROI +4.22% Full details here
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Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated on 1st January 2023. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £61,936 All bets have an ROI +2.91%
A £4000 bank betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £61,936 a 1448% increase
The Road to Riches Weekend of 25th-26th February
Coming up this weekend
- Horse Racing Over the jumps at Chepstow, Kempton and Newcastle and on the all-weather at Chelmsford City and Lingfield
- Football Premier League Fixtures include Tottenham v Chelsea. The Carabao Cup Final Manchester United v Newcastle.
- Rugby Union, the third weekend of the Six Nations
- Cricket the second test match between New Zealand and England in Wellington continues
- Tennis ATP Opens in Dubai, Mexico and Chile
- Golf The Arnold Palmer Invitationa and Puerto Rico Open on the USPGA
The Cheltenham Festival
Neil’s package of selections for the Cheltenham Festival in mid-March costs £199 and you can subscribe here
Horse racing on Betting Emporium over the last ten years shows a ROI of +5.06% using available prices and no bonuses. best odds guaranteed.
2022 Cheltenham +55.7% +596 points
2021 Cheltenham +17.2% +174 points
Free tip
Wales v England Six Nations Saturday 4.45pm
Wales were beaten by 24 points by Ireland at home in Round One, made five changes including dropping several of their most experienced players, went to Murrayfield and with their younger team produced an insipid performance and lost by 28 points.
That younger team saw Dafydd Jenkins, 20, Christ Tshiunza, 21, and Leicester flanker Tommy Reffell, 23, start with Alun Wyn Jones, 37, and Justin Tipuric, 33, left out of the squad and Taulupe Faletau, 32, dropped to the bench. For this game Liam Williams and George North are out of the 23 and Biggar is on the bench so the changing of the guard is well underway with nine changes from the Murrayfield game.
Welsh rugby has enormous structural issues around governance and funding of the regions. After the match there have been reports that such is the state of the professional game in Wales that many players are struggling with the current contract impasse. The four regions were given permission to negotiate new player contracts for this summer onwards but budgets have yet to be set. In truth the professional game in Wales probably can't support four regions. Things are so bad that player strike action had been mooted. Clearly not the best environment for the Welsh players to perform, they've missed at least one training session for this game, refused to appear at sponsor's events and can't be in the best frame of mind for this game. The Wales captain has described his team as a "laughing stock" over these events. The expected demise of the WRU 60 cap rule to be able to play international rugby if you play club rugby putside Wales is inevitable if domestic finances cannot match offers from other leagues.
On the pitch, against Scotland it was disappointing to see a side with no go forward, no flair in attack and clearly in what must be the very early stages of a complete rebuild on the pitch. If they lose here, with a trip to Rome and the visit of France to follow they’ll be staring down the barrel of a wooden spoon six months out from a World Cup.
England were really poor in defence against Scotland and disjointed in attack, responded by breaking up the Smith-Farrell axis, completely changed the midfield and beat Italy at Twickenham by 17 points with at least some punch off first phase and Jack Willis providing combatism at the breakdown.
What both these teams have in common is a lack of flair in their one-dimensional attacks in huge contrast to the pace and creativity showed by the current Ireland, France and Scotland teams.
England scored five tries against Italy, the first four from driving mauls and the majority would have been defended by the top sides. England have a long way to go from relying on line out drives to build a lead.
Top level rugby is cyclical but rebuilding in a World Cup year is obviously not ideal. Whilst Wales obviously expected that rebuild at some stage in the next year or two it appears to be on their hands now but England probably didn’t think they were facing a rebuild until towards the end of the Eddie Jones era when results became poor and now Steve Borthwick has to find his best team with three competitive games to go until the Rugby World Cup warm-up fixtures.
“These teams are in the final year of their four-year plan,” said Borthwick after the Italy match. “They’ve used the four years really well and now they’re putting the finishing touches to it. They know their selection, the caps under their belt, they’re arriving at the World Cup with the right number of caps, you’ve spent the right amount of time together as players and a coaching group. We’re not in that situation. The way we train, play and the way we approach our off-field preparation is that we’re maximising every minute.”
With both of these teams a long way off attacking prowess this should be a close attritional match. England are favourites away from home, -6 on the handicap from -3 before the off the field issues for Wales moved to centre stage, which is understandable enough. They are not quite in the depths that Wales are, but they remain vulnerable whilst installing defensive patterns. Wales are available at 2/1+. A narrow victory for England looks likely.
10 points England to win by 1-7 points 13/5 BetVictor (11/4 Betfair Sportsbook and Paddy Power)
Transition
The Baltimore Ravens will place the franchise tag on quarterback Lamar Jackson if the sides cannot agree to a long-term deal in the coming weeks and there is a possibility other teams could tempt Baltimore to trade the former NFL MVP for a windfall of draft picks.
Jackson played out his rookie deal last season, refused the offered contract extension and is unsigned for the 2023 season. Jackson's desire for more fully guaranteed money in line with De Shaun Watson’s 5 year $230m deal with the Cleveland Browns has kept the sides from striking a deal, despite Baltimore making multiple offers.
If the sides don't come to terms on a long-term deal before the March 7 tag deadline, the likelihood is still that Jackson plays in Baltimore but there are multiple ways Jackson could end up playing elsewhere in 2023. The Ravens could tag Jackson and explore options for a trade, with surely no shortage of suitors for one of the NFL's most dynamic talents.
There is a structural shortage of bona-fide NFL starting quarterbacks, and not all of that demand can be satisfied via the draft and potential veteran options such as Aaron Rodgers and Derek Carr.
If Baltimore places the non-exclusive franchise tag (worth $32.4m) on Jackson, that would allow him to negotiate a contract with another team; if the Ravens don't match, they'd get two first-round picks as compensation and Jackson would get a new home. The non-exclusive tag also could potentially allow the Ravens to keep Jackson for the long haul by letting another team negotiate the long-term deal, which Baltimore then could match. The more expensive exclusive franchise tag would prevent Jackson from negotiating with any other team.
This situation has been years in the making as Jackson played for just $1.77m in 2021 and on his $23m fifth-year option in 2022.
StattoBets Dave Monthly Subscription - Soccer - Tennis - Darts
Stattobets write ups, analysis and bets are available to monthly subscribers.
Results = points bet 26860 profit +1132.47 ROI +4.22% Full details here
Monthly subs are £50 a month and can be cancelled at any time. You can sign up here.
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated on 1st January 2023. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £61,936 All bets have an ROI +2.91%
A £4000 bank betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £61,936 a 1448% increase
