Weekly Articles "Road to Riches" by Rich 'Tighty' Prew
The Road to Riches: Weekend of 25th-26th December
Happy Christmas to all readers.
Coming up this weekend
- Horse Racing On Boxing Day over the jumps at Fontwell, Huntingdon, Kempton, Market Rasen, Sedgefield, Wetherby and Wincanton and on the all-weather at Wolverhampton
- Football, Premier League fixtures include Liverpool v Leeds and Manchester City v Leicester City
- Cricket, the third Ashes Test in Melbourne
- NFL Week 16
Free tip
Ashes third test, Melbourne starting Boxing Day
At 2-0 down and with the Ashes series almost lost a clear culprit is England’s batting, especially in first innings compounded by two questionable team selections, a poor toss decision in Brisbane and multiple dropped catches. At the MCG starting in the early hours of Boxing Day it will probably be a conventional case of win the toss and bat and if that decision falls to Australia the evidence of the series so far is that Australia will make hay with Marus Labuschagne batting at three one of the major threats.
So far in this series Labuschagne has scored 74,103 and 51. He has been in early in two of the three innings to date, had a bit of luck in Adelaide but there is nothing to suggest won’t continue to churn out runs this series and beyond.
First introduced to test cricket as a concussion substitute for Steve Smith in the 2019 Lords Test, by the end of that year he was the leading run scorer in test cricket. He now has 2,113 runs in 20 Test matches at an average of 62.14 withs six centuries and twelve fifties. In Adelaide he became the fourth fastest player in Test cricket to 2,000 runs.
In six Test matches against England, Labuschagne has scored 581 runs at an average of 58.10 with one century and six fifties. Against this England side, looking deflated, he shows no sign of slowing down.
10 points Marnus Labuschagne Top Australian run-scorer at 23/10 with Netfair Sportsbook and Paddy Power, 2/1 Betfred with more firms to follow
Running, running….
The NFL is cyclical, and after years of personnel moves and defensive schemes focused on stopping the pass, the NFL's top rushing attacks are having a great season.
As the 2021 season has worn on, the NFL has seen run games surge on a stage set for outsized passing numbers. We’ve seen from the Patriots, Eagles, Colts, Ravens, 49ers and Titans, too teams leaning on the run game winning on the ground, and for an easy-to-understand reason.
Most teams, in 2021, are built to throw the ball and stop other teams from throwing it. A minority of teams are built on the offensive and defensive lines and carry full backs and multiple blocking tight ends on their roster and have begun to dominate the smaller teams especially as season has worn on.
The Eagles have rushed for 200 yards as a team four times, and all four have come since Halloween. The Patriots have gone for more than 150 yards three times, and all three were after the end of October. Likewise, the 49ers’ top three games of the year are all over 155 yards and have come from November onwards as have the Colts’, with each of those games above 230 yards. The Titans’ top rushing number for the year, 270 yards (without Derrick Henry!), was during Thanksgiving week. The Ravens had a 247-yard day in early November.
Whilst the early draft picks will inevitably continue to be around skill positions involving passing the ball and on defense stopping the pass (cornerback, pass rusher) soon enough, other teams will be drafting run stoppers and road-grading offensive linemen earlier than they have done in recent years as the NFL continues its strategic, play-calling and drafting cycles.
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Stattobets write ups, analysis and bets are available to monthly subscribers.
Monthly subs are £50 a month and can be cancelled at any time. You can sign up here.
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated on 1st September as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £52,096.80 All bets have an ROI +2.66%
A £4000 bank betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth would now be worth £56,096.80 a 1302% increase
The Road to Riches: Weekend of 18th-19th December
Coming up this weekend
- Horse Racing Over the jumps at Ascot, Haydock and Newcastle and on the all-weather at Lingfield and Wolverhampton
- Football, Premier League fixtures include Tottenham Hotspur v Liverpool
- Cricket, the second Ashes Test in Adelaide continues
- Rugby Union, the European Champions Cup
- NFL Week 15
Free tip
European Champions Cup Rugby 5.30pm Saturday
Glasgow Warriors v Exeter Chiefs
Glasgow Warriors were edged 20-13 by last season’s runners-up La Rochelle in their European Champions Cup opener leading briefly in the second half. They earned a losing bonus point and host Exeter Chiefs here needing to win to hope to qualify out of the pool for the knockout stages.
That will be a very tough task. Defending Premiership champions Exeter opened the pool thrashing Montpellier 42-6 at home and although their domestic record is not so strong this season having won six lost four games they have been hitting form, grinding out a recent win against Saracens for example.
Exeter should win but it is going to be a grind away from home against a pack containing several current Scottish Internationals in December weather.
11 points Glasgow Warriors +8 at 10/11 with William Hill and Coral/Ladbrokes
Root
In the first Ashes Test in Brisbane Joe Root scored 89 in the second innings finishing just short a first century on Australian soil (he still averaged 47 on England’s last Ashes tour) and set a new England record for most Test runs in a calendar year, with two tests remaining at Adelaide this week and Melbourne from Boxing Day.
So far in 25 test Innings in 2021 he has scored 1,544 runs with a high score of 228 at an average of 59.3 with 6 hundreds. The calendar year record is 1,788.
Overall Root’s test average is 50 with 23 hundreds and in ODIs his average is 51 in 142 innings. In 2021 the next highest England test run scorer is Burns with 492 which illustrates the problem: the rest of England’s batting order. England's collective batting average this year is currently 23.6, with seven centuries in 13 Tests. Away in Australia against a top bowling attack on good pitches, others apart from Root need to consistently come to the party to give England a shot at the sort of totals to make them competitive.
StattoBets Dave Monthly Subscription
Stattobets write ups, analysis and bets are available to monthly subscribers.
Monthly subs are £50 a month and can be cancelled at any time. You can sign up here.
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated on 1st September as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £52,096.80 All bets have an ROI +2.66%
A £4000 bank betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth would now be worth £56,096.80 a 1302% increase
The Road to Riches: Weekend of 11th-12th December
Coming up this weekend
- Horse Racing Over the jumps at Cheltenham, Doncaster and Hereford and on the all-weather at Wolverhampton and Newcastle
- Football, Premier League fixtures include Liverpool v Aston Villa
- Cricket, the first Ashes Test in Brisbane continues
- Rugby Union, the European Champions Cup
- Formula One, the Abu Dhabi Grand Prix to conclude the season
- NFL Week 14
Free tip
European Champions Cup Rugby 3.15pm Saturday
Bordeaux-Begles v Leicester Tigers
This season’s European Cup competition, as last year in a changed format, has 24 sides in 2 pools with the top 4 in each advancing to the last 8.
Pool play will feature the Tier 1/top ranked teams playing Tier 4/bottom ranked teams in their pool (that are not from the same league) twice in a home and away manner, while the Tier 2 and 3 clubs will follow in a similar manner.
The four teams from each pool with the best points will qualify for the knockout stage. Teams finishing 5th through 8th after pool play will join the Challenge Cup at the round of 16 stage (joining eight qualifiers from the Challenge Cup pool stage) In total, eight weekends of play will be provided for, one less than in previous seasons.
Bordeaux are a tier 2 seed, currently sitting in second place in the French top 14 with 8 wins in their 11 matches to date. They were semi-finalists in this competition last year, losing 21-9 to eventual winners Toulouse. The side features French stars like Trinh-Duc, Picamoles, Woki plus the usual smattering of Southern Hemisphere imports helping them field a big strong forward pack
Leicester are a tier 3 seed this season but their vast improvement under Steve Borthwick means they are an unfortunate Tier 3 draw for tier 2 sides. Leicester have won 9 out of 9 in the Gallagher Premiership this season with a functional style based around a rumbling forward pack and the kicking of George Ford, the line up now augmented by a slew of young players that have emerged from the Academy system.
In this competition Four points are awarded for a win, two points for a draw, one attacking bonus point for scoring four or more tries in a match and one defensive bonus point for losing a match by seven points or fewer. This is going to be an arm wrestle, the Tigers best hope might be a loss by no more than one score and a losing bonus point, but it should be very close
15 points Leicester +4 at Evens with Bet365 and Betfred
Drive to Survive
F1 heads to the final Grand Prix of the season this weekend in Abu Dhabi after a fantastic season long battle for the driver’s title between Hamilton and Verstappen, now tied on points, which came to a head in the dramatic Saudi Arabian Grand Prix last weekend with crashes, overtakes, penalties and controversy galore.
F1 has struck lucky with a battle for the ages, but also deserves credit for a number of strategic moves under Liberty Media’s ownership that has allowed the sport to really capitalise on the current season, leading to massive viewing figures.
One of those is “Drive to Survive” the Netflix series about F1 now in its fourth season, has offered an intimate look into a notoriously secretive sport and, has drawn the American fans they have been eager to attract for years. The Mclaren CEO has said “People are going from ‘I’ve never watched a Formula 1 race in my life’ to ‘I’ll never miss a Formula 1 race again.’
Eight of the 10 Formula 1 teams agreed to be part of the first season, minus Ferrari and Mercedes. Missing the two most famous and successful teams did not stop the first season from being a success. Fans learned about the inner workings of the sport, the personalities, politics and pettiness. by the time Season 2 began filming, Ferrari and Mercedes had changed their minds.
“It showed me a new angle to attract a new audience, different to how I perceive F1,” Toto Wolff, team principal of Mercedes, said in 2019, explaining why the team got involved starting in Season 2.
The three seasons have captured many of Formula 1’s biggest moments, including drivers’ being fired midseason and scoring emotional first wins. One of the most dramatic episodes in Season 3 was Romain Grosjean’s escape from a crash that had left him trapped in the burning wreckage of his car for about 27 seconds. But a large part of the success of “Drive to Survive” has come from showcasing the personalities and lives of drivers off the track.
“Drive to Survive” ranked No. 1 for TV series worldwide shortly after Season 3’s release in March. It also brought in more viewers than the first season
Formula 1’s TV audience in the United States has jumped since “Drive to Survive” was released. ESPN said its average viewers per race had risen to about 928,000 in 2021 from about 547,000 in 2018.
The growth in popularity in the United States comes at an important time for Formula 1. A second Grand Prix in the United States, in Miami, will be added in 2022, as the sport tries to expand further into the country.
The way the sport tries to sell itself in terms of access to drivers and team principals both on race weekends and via Netflix is something a lot of sports could learn from.
Whatever happens this weekend, given the arguments and action during the 2021 F1 season, season 4 should be a terrific watch
StattoBets Dave Monthly Subscription
Stattobets write ups, analysis and bets are available to monthly subscribers.
Monthly subs are £50 a month and can be cancelled at any time. You can sign up here.
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated on 1st September as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £52,096.80 All bets have an ROI +2.66%
A £4000 bank betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth would now be worth £56,096.80 a 1302% increase
The Road to Riches: Weekend of 4th-5th December
Coming up this weekend
- Horse Racing Over the jumps at Aintree, Chepstow, Sandown and Wetherby and on the all-weather at Wolverhampton
- Football, Premier League fixtures include West Ham United v Chelsea
- Cricket, the first Ashes Test in Brisbane starts on Thursday
- Formula One, the Saudi Arabia Grand Prix
- NFL Week 13
Free tip
The 2021 Ashes
Starting next Thursday in Brisbane, Australia are 1/3 favourites to win the Ashes, England 4/1 outsiders. The schedule is a condensed one, with five Tests in six weeks, though already the Perth Test is rated “50-50” due to the onset of more COVID restrictions and the emergence of the new Omicrom variant. For now though the schedule is as follows:
First Test: 8-12 December - Gabba, Brisbane
Second Test: 16-20 December - Adelaide Oval, Adelaide (day/night)
Third Test: 26-30 December - MCG, Melbourne)
Fourth Test: 5-9 January - SCG, Sydney
Fifth Test: 14-18 January - Optus Stadium, Perth
With the cricketing calendar so congested across all formats and players having been in bubbles for the best part of two years, the trend towards rotating players is going to intensify. England already have this stated aim. So whilst a best England XI undoubtedly features a x year old Anderson and a y year old Broad it seems a stretch to expect them to play five Tests. Although Australia’s first choice bowling line up (Starc, Cummins, Hazlewood, Lyon) is more settled, the same probably applies.
Looking at the odds for Top Series bowler across both teams we have the following
Cummins 7/2
Hazlewood 9/2
Lyon 5/1
Anderson 6/1
Starc 7/1
Broad 10/1
12/1 bar
It’s not a surprise to see Australian bowlers at the head of the market for a team that are such strong favourites at home. When we look at the Australian first choice attack we have the following for their Test records
Cummins 34 matches 164 wickets strike rate of 47.1
Hazlewood 55 matches 212 wickets strike rate of 56.1
Lyon 100 matches 399 wickets strike rate of 64.3
Starc 61 matches 255 wickets strike rate of 49.3
What makes Cummins a worthy favourite is that he has been appointed Captain following Tim Payne stepping down and, with the caveat that he remains fit, looks the least likely bowler along with the spinners to be rotated and rested during the series.
Cummins, as the top ranked bowler in the Test rankings, could be favourite even without the captaincy and thus extra risk of rotation but looks a very solid bet with the protection Captaincy should bring to his place in the line-up.
10 points Pat Cummins Top Series Bowler at 7/2 with Skybet 3/1 with Betfair Sportsbook/PaddyPower. More firms to follow in the run up to Thursday
Unwreck it Ralf
Only five Premier League sides have conceded more goals than Manchester United this season.
Ralf Rangnick arrives on an initial six-month deal, there are plans for a two-year consultancy role to follow and his wealth of experience and tactical nous will be invaluable. Solskjaer's managerial principles were founded upon man-management as opposed to detailed tactical knowledge and Rangnick is the opposite to the Norwegian. Jurgen Klopp, Thomas Tuchel and Julian Nagelsmann all credit Rangnick as a compelling influence, but the true extent of his impact goes beyond those managers.
While Rangnick was the mastermind at board room level behind RB Leipzig's rise to the Champions League, he forged his reputation as a coach and RB Leipzig conceded the fewest goals (29) in the Bundesliga, a better record than champions Bayern Munich (32).
United have fielded a defence that has been worth in excess of £200m in most Premier League games this season, however their back four is statistically one of the worst. Harry Maguire, Luke Shaw and Aaron Wan-Bissaka are all underperforming.
United’s lack of organisation under Solskjaer was never resolved. He could set up a team to defend deep and strike on the break, which brought a series of notable results in big games, but they struggled to break down well-organised defences. This season, the flaw was compounded by the signing of Ronaldo a nostalgia-driven investment, another reminder that United as a club see themselves as being less about the production of effective football than saleable content.
Suddenly it was no longer possible to sit deep and counter because there was a player who had to be selected up front. With a great midfield, as Real Madrid showed with Casemiro, Luka Modric and Toni Kroos, it is possible to compensate for Ronaldo and his unwillingness or inability to press. Scott McTominay, Fred and Nemanja Matic do not constitute a great midfield. Nor was playing at least 4 of Ronaldo, Fernandes, Rashford, Greenwood and Sancho against the top sides a route to providing cover for an exposed back four.
This is a squad that has been expensively assembled, but it lacks coherence and whoever is appointed will have to face that first of all and that means sales as well as signings. Why was Paul Pogba not offloaded when he might have generated a fee? Why are Donny van de Beek, Eric Bailly, Juan Mata, Alex Telles and Diogo Dalot at the club if there was no place for them in Solskjær’s plans?
If Rangnick can address this glaring weakness at the back, United should duly rise up the Premier League table, but the longer term squad restructuring is the bigger issue awaiting him and the next permanent appointment
StattoBets Dave Monthly Subscription
Stattobets write ups, analysis and bets are available to monthly subscribers.
Monthly subs are £50 a month and can be cancelled at any time. You can sign up here.
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated on 1st September as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £52,096.80 All bets have an ROI +2.66%
A £4000 bank betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth would now be worth £56,096.80 a 1302% increase
The Road to Riches: Weekend of 27th-28th November
Coming up this weekend
- Horse Racing Over the jumps at Bangor, Doncaster, Newbury and Newcastle and on the all-weather at Wolverhampton
- Football, Premier League fixtures include Chelsea v Manchester United
- Golf, The Hero World Challenge on the USPGA and the South African Open on the European Tour
- NFL Week 12
Free tip
The Ladbrokes Trophy at Newbury (3pm Saturday) by Neil Channing
Regular readers will know how excited I am to see a 21-runner handicap where bookmakers are offering a very generous 1/4 1234 or 1/5th 123456 which are both very fair and about equivalent. If you can get the 1/5th 1234567 that a couple of firms offer then that is even better. If you have been concentrating on other previews I've done you'll know I'm always keen to stress that we must be careful not to get great each-way terms but then to give up our advantage by taking a price that is way lower than the Betfair win market, which gives us a good idea of the "true price" once it becomes liquid. For that reason I always suggest the need to avoid the favourite/longshot bias trap and so I'll focus on the horses at under 25/1 and that gives us just nine to look at.
Tantalising
A tantalising Six Nations awaits after the conclusion of the Autumn Internationals in which the Northern Hemisphere teams won 7 games and the Rugby Championship 5, the highlight result of which was undoubtedly Ireland beating the All Blacks where only ferocious New Zealand defence prevented a bigger defeat by the more physical hosts. If they had won by 30 points you wouldn’t have been surprised.
Under previous coach Joe Schmidt Ireland were successful but in a very pragmatic style, using the kicking game and territory to beat opponents but usually coming up short against the very best. Under Andy Farrell there are now signs of a more expansive game which you could see during the summer series with a few off-loads though they weren’t firing fully with it. Add in a fierce defence of their own and a lot of depth…against New Zealand the likes of O’Mahoney, Murray and Beirne didn’t make the starting side.
The odds for the Six Nations Championship at the time of writing are as follows:
France 13/8
England 9/4
Ireland 9/2
Wales 8/1
Scotland 10/1
Italy 1000/1
Ireland are not going to be an easy out for anyone, France put 40 points on New Zealand and are peaking with a superb young side, England despite being in a mini-rebuilding phase beat South Africa, Wales are a big price for a side that are defending champions, won four games out of five in 2021 and scored 20 tries and Scotland have a lot of talent, probably not Championship winners but capable of winning 2-3 games.
Perhaps the only thing we can be confident about at this stage is that there is unlikely to be a Grand Slam, already an odds-on bet in ante-post markets
StattoBets Dave Monthly Subscription
Stattobets write ups, analysis and bets are available to monthly subscribers.
Monthly subs are £50 a month and can be cancelled at any time. You can sign up here.
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated on 1st September as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £52,096.80 All bets have an ROI +2.66%
A £4000 bank betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth would now be worth £56,096.80 a 1302% increase
