Weekly Articles "Road to Riches" by Rich 'Tighty' Prew
The Road to Riches Weekend of 11th-12th June
The Road to Riches Weekend of 11th-12th June
Coming up this weekend
- Horse Racing On the flat at Bath, Chester, Leicester, Sandown and York. Over the jumps at Hexham and Worcester.
- Football, UEFA Nations League Matches including England v Italy
- Cricket the Test Match series between England and New Zealand continues at Trent Bridge
- Formula One, the Azerbaijan Grand Prix
- Rugby Union, the Gallagher Premiership Play-Off Semi-Finals
- Golf The US Open next Thursday
- Tennis ATP Queens and Halle Opens in the run up to Wimbledon.
Royal Ascot (Full Package) 14th - 18th June 2022
Get all Neil's write ups and details of all our bets for the five days of Royal Ascot for £199 here
Free tip
Gallagher Premiership Semi-finals Saracens v Harlequins 1.30pm Saturday
Second plays third from the regular season table in the first of the play off semi-finals this weekend.
This is Saracens’ first season back in the top flight after their salary cap misdemeanours. They are not quite the team they used to be, minus Barritt, Skelton amongst experienced players but still a formidable team packed with internationals and with lots of young talent that was blooded out on loan during Saracens exile into the Championship.
Harlequins won last year’s play-offs and also have lots of firepower, playing off the Danny Care/Marcus Smith axis. The battle between Smith and Owen Farrell, recently returned from the injury that caused him to miss the Six Nations will obviously be key.
This should be a very close game and Saracens at home are favoured by a score in the handicap markets. I like Quins to keep it closer than the 7 point spread here given their attacking and scoring potential.
11 points Harlequins + 7 points at 10/11 generally
Rooted
Joe Root has scored 2,192 runs across his last 21 Tests, stretching back to January 2021, with nine centuries at an average of 56.20. In the recent first Test against New Zealand at Lords Root became the 14th man, and second from England, after Sir Alastair Cook, to the milestone of 10,000 Test runs.
Root achieved the landmark at exactly the same age as Cook (31) during his match-clinching 115 not out in the final innings of the game.
Root is now 5,906 short of Sachin Tendulkar's tally of 15,921 Test runs. Fitness permitting you would think Root has a minimum of five years Test cricket left in him and has a fair shot at ending up about Tendulkar’s record given the amount of Test cricket England play.
His feats so far are more remarkable because his form has coincided with a difficult period as captain in a poor team and the general lack of run scoring from the rest of the England line up.
StattoBets Dave Monthly Subscription - Soccer - Tennis - Darts
Stattobets write ups, analysis and bets are available to monthly subscribers.
Results = points bet 26860 profit +1132.47 ROI +4.22% Full details here
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Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated on 1st April 2022. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £59,082.60 All bets have an ROI +2.90%
A £4000 bank betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £63,082.60 a 1477% increase
The Road to Riches: Weekend of 4th-5th June
Coming up this weekend
- Horse Racing On the flat at Chepstow, Doncaster, Epsom, Lingfield and Musselburgh. Over the jumps at Hexham and Worcester.
- Football, UEFA Nations League Matches
- Cricket the Test Match series between England and New Zealand continues at Lords
- Golf The Canadian Open on the USPGA and the Scandinavian Open on the DP World Tour
- Tennis ATP Libema and Stuttgart Opens
Royal Ascot (Full Package) 14th - 18th June 2022
Get all Neil's write ups and details of all our bets for the five days of Royal Ascot for £199 here
Free tip
The Derby: Saturday 4.30pm by Neil Channing
Stripped
Wimbledon has been stripped of its ATP ranking points following the decision to ban Russian and Belarusian players from this summer’s Championships.
The ATP and WTA had both criticised the decision to ban Russian and Belarusian players following the invasion of Ukraine.
Wimbledon chairman Ian Hewitt said the UK Government had left them with “no viable alternative”, but the ATP has now removed ranking points from the tournament.
“The ability for players of any nationality to enter tournaments based on merit, and without discrimination, is fundamental to our Tour,” read an ATP statement.
The ATP said it does not “underestimate the difficult decisions” Wimbledon and the Lawn Tennis Association had faced in responding to UK Government guidance. But the Tour questioned Wimbledon’s claim there was no other decision to be made.
The statement added: “We note that this was informal guidance, not a mandate, which offered an alternative option that would have left the decision in the hands of individual players competing as neutral athletes through a signed declaration.
Ranking points will remain at ATP Tour events at Queen’s (ATP 500), Eastbourne (ATP 250) and ATP Challenger events on the basis that alternative playing opportunities are open to Russian and Belarusian players in those weeks, unlike during Wimbledon, which minimises any impact on the integrity of the rankings.
StattoBets Dave Monthly Subscription - Soccer - Tennis - Darts
Stattobets write ups, analysis and bets are available to monthly subscribers.
Results = points bet 26860 profit +1132.47 ROI +4.22% Full details here
Monthly subs are £50 a month and can be cancelled at any time. You can sign up here.
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated on 1st April 2022. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £59,082.60 All bets have an ROI +2.90%
A £4000 bank betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £63,082.60 a 1477% increase
The Road to Riches: Weekend of 27th-28th May
Coming up this weekend
- Horse Racing On the flat at Beverley, Catterick, Chester, Haydock and Salisbury. Over the jumps at Ffos Las and on the all-weather at Chelmsford City
- Football, The Champions League Final
- Rugby Union, the European Champions Cup Final
- Cricket the Test Match series between England and New Zealand starts at Lords next week
- Formula One, the Monaco Grand Prix
- Golf The Memorial at Muirfield Village on the USPGA and the European Open on the DP World Tour
- Tennis The French Open continues
Royal Ascot (Full Package) 14th - 18th June 2022
Get all Neil's write ups and details of all our bets for the five days of Royal Ascot for £199 here
Free tip
European Champions Cup Final
Leinster v La Rochelle in Marseille, Saturday 4.45pm
Leinster four times winners of this competition, the last time in 2018 are attempting to match Toulouse’s five-win record. Since 2018 Leinster have lost to Saracens in the 2019 final and lost their semi-final against La Rochelle last year when missing the injured Sexton.
In the semi final this year, at home they battered Toulouse 40-17 and are understandably favourites for the final. The starting team contains 13 Irish Internationals, the squad is augmented by a superb Academy pipeline and through the season the coaches can manage the workload of the top players as their domestic league the URC is weak compared to the French and English leagues.
La Rochelle are now coached by Ronan O’Gara, and were beaten finalists last year and now only the fourth side in the competition to make consecutive finals. They beat Racing 92 in the al-French semi 23-10 from 10-0 down
La Rochelle have a massive pack and plenty of creativity out wide, and as a result can play in a variety of ways. They’d be unlikely to win a high tempo game against Leinster but in a tighter game they are likely to keep the score closer than the 11 point spread implies.
12 points La Rochelle +11 points at Evens with Bet365, 10/11 generally
Early Doors
The current World Rugby Rankings are as follows
South Africa 1
France 2
New Zealand 3
Ireland 4
Ahead of the 2023 World Cup in France, the consequences of the December 2020 pool draw are clear. It has distorted the competition by virtue of such a long organisational timeframe adopted
France are in the same Pool, Pool A, as New Zealand whilst South Africa and Ireland are both in pool B. At the quarter-final stage, the winners of pool A face the runners-up of pool B and vice-versa meaning that a maximum of two of the four current top raked sides sides can reach the semi-finals.
England have a pool containing Argentina and Japan that they should win, Should they do so they would be likely to meet Wales in the quarter-finals and will be favourites to make the semi-finals without facing a team currently ranked higher than eighth.
Ireland face South Africa in their pool and will have to beat France (second) or New Zealand (third) if they are to reach a first ever semi-final. It is the toughest of tough draws even for a team near its peak and likely to remain so through 2023
This coming weekend French and Irish teams will meet in the European Champions Cup final in Marseille at the end of a competition they have dominated for several seasons, by virtue of big salary caps compared to other nations (for the French sides) and the combination of top tier talent and an unrivalled academy system (for Leinster). There is far less likelihood that the 2023 World Cup final will be dominated by their national sides albeit ranked in the top four in the world because of the shape of the draw.
StattoBets Dave Monthly Subscription - Soccer - Tennis - Darts
Stattobets write ups, analysis and bets are available to monthly subscribers.
Results = points bet 26860 profit +1132.47 ROI +4.22% Full details here
Monthly subs are £50 a month and can be cancelled at any time. You can sign up here.
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated on 1st April 2022. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £59,082.60 All bets have an ROI +2.90%
A £4000 bank betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £63,082.60 a 1477% increase
The Road to Riches: Weekend of 21st-22nd May
Coming up this weekend
- Horse Racing On the flat at Goodwood, Haydock, Lingfield, Musselburgh and York and Over the jumps at Stratford
- Football, The final weekend of the Premier League
- Cricket the IPL Continues
- Formula One, the Spanish Grand Prix in Barcelona
- Golf The Charles Schwab Challenge at Colonial on the USPGA and the Dutch Open on the DP World Tour
- Tennis The French Open begins
Royal Ascot (Full Package) 14th - 18th June 2022
Get all Neil's write ups and details of all our bets for the five days of Royal Ascot for £199 here
Free tip
IPL Mumbai Indians v Delhi Capitals Saturday 3pm
In the final stages of the group games and Delhi have a shot at a position in the knockout stages with 7 wins from their 13 games, good enough at the time of writing for 4th place in the league table after Monday’s victory against the Punjab Kings
Delhi’s batting for much of this season has been led by David Warner and Rishabh Pant. Warner has 427 runs at 53 and a strike rate over 150 with 5 fifties in 11 innings whilst Pant has scored 301 runs at 30 and a strike rate of 157 has but just recently Mitch Marsh has been batting at number three and has made a couple of major contributions with 89 off 62 balls in the victory over Rajasthan then 63 off 48 balls against Punjab
Usually IPL powerhouses Mumbai are near the end of a disappointing season with 3 wins and 12 losses the latest when failing to defend 190 against Sunrisers in midweek.
10 points Mitchell Marsh top Delhi batsman at 18/5 Betfred, 7/2 Betfair Sportsbook and Paddy Power, 3/1 Ladbrokes/Coral
Time will tell
Even with the movement at quarterback this offseason, the transformation of potential team strategies at the wide receiver position is “the issue” of the 2022 offseason.
As discussed in this column recently the Christian Kirk trade began proceedings, followed by the Davante Adams and Tyreek Hill trades where both were prepared to give up their playing relationship with Aaron Rodgers and Patrick Mahomes respectively to go to new teams prepared to pay a premium for their services, as the Packers and Chiefs took the draft pick compensation and extra salary cap space.
Then in the recent NFL draft the transformation and team decision-making at wide receiver continued with a rare blockbuster draft day trade.
The Eagles did what the Raiders and Dolphins did earlier in the offseason: trade for a star receiver, in this case AJ Brown, who was having financial and/or relational issues with his team, and pay that star receiver at a new top-of-market market rate. This trade was for a high-performing young player with a year left on an under-valued rookie contract.
The position of wide receiver used to be a low-value position, one where teams would say “You can get always find them” along with running back, linebacker, safety, guard and tight end. Now, wide receiver is becoming more highly valued, due to more open and prolific offenses and, in turn, the financial value accorded to top players at the position. Wideout is approaching the importance of quarterback, left tackle, pass rusher and shutdown cornerback.
We have now seen at least three teams (Packers, Chiefs and Titans) take the following strategy: opt out of paying their star receiver at a higher level, trade them for draft picks and cap space, and go young/cheap to replace them. After trading away their star receivers, all three teams drafted wide receivers in the first or second round.
Christian Watson (Packers), Skyy Moore (Chiefs) and Treylon Burks (Titans) almost certainly won’t rise to the level of Adams, Hill and Brown soon. The acquiring teams, Raiders, Dolphins and Eagles will clearly receive more on-field value in the short term. But that is just a short-term snapshot and does not take into account the aspect of financial value.
Will Adams, Hill and Brown at roughly $24 million per year be eight times more valuable than Watson, Moore and Burks at roughly $3 million per year? A fair question can now be asked about which teams are getting the better value. Time will tell.
StattoBets Dave Monthly Subscription - Soccer - Tennis - Darts
Stattobets write ups, analysis and bets are available to monthly subscribers.
Results = points bet 26860 profit +1132.47 ROI +4.22% Full details here
Monthly subs are £50 a month and can be cancelled at any time. You can sign up here.
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated on 1st April 2022. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £59,082.60 All bets have an ROI +2.90%
A £4000 bank betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £63,082.60 a 1477% increase
The Road to Riches: Weekend of 14th-15th May
Coming up this weekend
- Horse Racing On the flat at Doncaster, Newbury, Newmarket and Thirsk and Over the jumps at Bangor and Uttoxeter. All weather racing at Chelmsford City
- Football, The FA Cup Final Liverpool v Chelsea
- Rugby Union, the European Champions Cup Semi finals
- Cricket the IPL Continues
- Golf The PGA Championship at Southern Hills
- Tennis ATP Opens in Geneva and Lyon
Free tip
The IPL: Lucknow Super Giants v Rajasthan Royals 3pm Sunday in Mumbai
Two-thirds of the way through the group stages and these sides both sit in the knockout positions. Lucknow a new franchise in the competition this year are second with 8 wins in their 12 games after their midweek loss to Gujarat whilst Rajasthan are 3rd with seven wins.
The match features the top two run scorers in the competition so far. Jos Buttler of Rajasthan has 625 runs at a strike rate of 150, KL Rahul of Lucknow 459 runs at a strike rate of 140 whilst the leading wicket taker Yuzvendra Chahal of Rajasthan has 23 wickets to date.
Buttler has scored three hundreds and three fifties so far, Rahul two hundreds and fifties but does have more failures, the variance is higher with his performance. Buttler is well on his way to challenging Kohli’s competition record of 973 runs. He scores heavily and is consistent, a solid betting prospect in a high variance format
10 points Jos Buttler Top Rajasthan run scorer at 2/1 with Betfred, 9/5 Betfair Sportsbook/PaddyPower and 7/4 Coral/Ladbrokes
Aspirations
The decision not to allow the English Rugby Championship winners Ealing Trailfinders to be promoted to the Gallagher Premiership, ostensibly because their stadium does not meet the league’s minimum standards, was another blow for clubs in rugby’s second tier struggling for relevance and revenue as, in some cases, professional clubs with marginal financial viability.
No relegation means we are now in the stage of the season where a side like Bath, bottom of the table this year, can “down tools” such as in their 64-0 defeat at Gloucester two weeks ago
With a moratorium in place on relegation from the Premiership until the 2023-24 season, the official line is that negotiations over the Championship’s future are continuing. There may yet be a cup competition involving Premiership and Championship clubs from the 2023-24 season. But how many thriving professional outfits will the second tier contain by then? Will the Championship be able to enhance the development of English-qualified players, coaches and referees? Given adult male participation numbers are falling across the recreational game and funding is already squeezed, it looks doubtful.
Meanwhile Premiership clubs stockpile young players who, in the absence of a reserve league, don’t play very much to help their development.
What should Championship clubs aspire to be? Feeder clubs? Proud local institutions in their own right? Semi-pro or mostly amateur outfits? One thing appears increasingly sure, running as professional sides doesn’t appear to be sustainable.
StattoBets Dave Monthly Subscription
Stattobets write ups, analysis and bets are available to monthly subscribers.
Monthly subs are £50 a month and can be cancelled at any time. You can sign up here.
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated on 1st January as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £52,282.40 All bets have an ROI +2.62%
A £4000 bank betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £56,282.40 a 1307% increase
