Weekly Articles "Road to Riches" by Rich 'Tighty' Prew
The Road to Riches: Weekend of 4th-5th September
Coming up this weekend
- Horse Racing, On the flat at Ascot, Haydock, Kempton, Thirsk and Wolverhampton and over the jumps at Stratford.
- Football, World Cup Qualifying Matches
- Rugby Union, the Rugby Championship continues, Australia v New Zealand in Perth
- Cricket, the fourth Test match between England and India at The Kia Oval
- Formula One, the Dutch Grand Prix
- Golf, the BMW PGA Championship at Wentworth.
- Tennis, The US Open continues
NFL 2021 Regular season
The new season begins next Thursday. Weekly write ups throughout the seventeen week season
Read what to expect here
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Free tip
NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year
It seemed like a forgone conclusion that Trevor Lawrence would be the first pick of the 2021 NFL Draft since he led Clemson to a national championship as a freshman back in 2018. As expected, the Jacksonville Jaguars selected him No. 1 overall, and now he heads into his debut season leading a deep crop of talented rookies and understandably Lawrence is favourite for the Offensive rookie of the year title in 2021, won last year by Justin Herbert of the Chargers
First some data:
Just three wide receivers have won the award over the last 22 seasons.
No tight end or offensive lineman has ever won the award.
Last season marked the first time since 2006 that a player from the AFC won the award.
Despite the profile and importance of the Quarterback position, four of the last eight winners have been running backs. As a general rule, it’s easier for a running back to have a rookie impact than it is a wide receiver.
That said, the current RedZoneSports ante- post market for this season has five Quarterbacks at the head of the market
Lawrence 7/2
Jones (Patriots) 6/1
Fields (Bears) 15/2
Lance (49ers) 15/2
Wilson (Jets) 15/2
Harris (Steelers running back) 17/2
Pitts (Falcons Tight End) 10/1
16/1 bar
Apart from Lawrence, named as the starter for week one onwards, each of Fields and Lance are unlikely to play 16 games with head coaches (rather conservatively) going with veteran Quarterbacks to start the season and that provides some of the value elsewhere in the market. Jones has seen his price halve after the release of Cam Newton at the Patriots and Wilson could be a very live play with the Jets investing in a number of skill position players alongside him my suggestion for value is Najee Harris the Steelers running back.
Pittsburgh understands that Roethlisberger, now a seventeen-year veteran, may no longer be capable of carrying an offense with his arm. Harris gives the Steelers a bruising three-down back that is going to get 400+ touches if he stays fit. Harris is a tenacious runner with good vision and the agility to make tacklers miss when needed. He should stack up rushing yardage, but his ability as a pass catcher and touchdown maker could be the difference if he is to win the award.
10 points Najee Harris Offensive Rookie of the Year 17/2 RedZoneSports
Revision
Queensland will host eight of the remaining Rugby Championship Tests after a Covid-enforced change to the schedule.
New Zealand and Australia are currently subject to lockdowns and the All Blacks cancelled two games including their Bledisloe Cup match in Perth.
But Queensland, largely free of coronavirus, has been deemed safe to host all four nations.
The new fixtures will be double-headers over four weekends from 12 September.
The Championship kicked off at Eden Park in New Zealand on 14 August, with the hosts thrashing the Wallabies 57-22.
South Africa then hosted two games against Argentina, winning both to top the table, before the competition was thrown into jeopardy as New Zealand's snap lockdown after a first COVID case in six months led to cancellations.
Three venues in Queensland will now stage the forthcoming rounds, except for the Australia-New Zealand game which is still set for Perth this coming weekend.
The Gold Coast will host New Zealand v Argentina and Australia v South Africa in a back-to-back double-header on 12 September in round three, as well as the round-six ties. The other rounds will be played in Brisbane and Townsville.
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Betting Emporium results
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If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £42,703.40 All bets have an ROI +2.39%
A £4000 bank betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £46,703.40 a 1068% increase
The Road to Riches: Weekend of 28th-29th August
Coming up this weekend
- Horse Racing, On the flat at Beverley, Goodwood, Newmarket, Redcar and Windsor and over the jumps at Cartmel.
- Football, the Premier League matches include Manchester City v Arsenal and Liverpool v Chelsea
- Cricket, the third Test match between England and India at Headingley
- Formula One, the Belgian Grand Prix
- Golf, the Tour Championship at East Lake GC on the USPGA Tour and on the European Tour the Italian Open.
- Tennis, The US Open begins
NFL 2021 Regular season
The new season begins on September 9th. Weekly write ups throughout the seventeen week season
Read what to expect here
Sign up for the 17 week regular NFL season for just £50 here
Free tip
2021 NFL MVP
Ahead of the start of the NFL regular season a look at the ante-post market for NFL MVP, won in the last three years by 2020 MVP Aaron Rodgers, 2019 MVP Patrick Mahomes and in 20218 Lamar Jackson. The last eight winners have been Quarterbacks, and 14 of the last fifteen too.
This year the head of the market shows as follows
Mahomes 9/2
Rodgers 10/1
Josh Allen 12/1
Last season Bills Quarterback Josh Allen finished second in MVP voting, albeit with only four of the 50 votes on a 13 win Bills team after a much improved performance in his third season in the NFL.
He had a completion percentage above 69%, threw for 4,544 yards, and ran for an additional 421 yards. Allen accounted for 37 passing, 8 rushing touchdowns, and 1 receiving score. 69% represented a 10% increase in completion percentage.
For the new season Buffalo again look to be a Superbowl contender, currently 12/1 favourites. This is an award voted on by sports writers so to be in the hunt for MVP the team needs to be in the hunt for the title.
Last year the only thing that was holding Allen back from MVP was the turnover total. Aaron Rodgers only had four fumbles to Allen’s nine (understandable, as Allen rushing is a significant part of his offensive output) and five interceptions to Allen’s ten. Other than that, the numbers between the two quarterbacks are very similar. Rodgers actually threw and ran for fewer yards. However, a lower turnover rate, more total touchdowns, and a better completion percentage are likely the things that set Rodgers apart from Allen in the MVP race last year.
Allen has improved from a statistical, and decision-making standpoint in each year of his career. In 2021 can he do so again? I think so and he should be a live contender this coming season
10 points Josh Allen 2021 NFL MVP at 12/1 William Hill and RedZoneSports
Luxury
Uefa will set out proposals next month to replace its Financial Fair Play rules with a salary cap and luxury tax. Under the planned system clubs in European competition would be limited to spending a fixed percentage of their revenue on salaries. Any clubs breaching the cap would have to pay a luxury tax, under which the equivalent or more of any overspend would go into a pot to be redistributed. This would replace FFP which states that clubs must break even over a three-year period.
The plan is viewed as fairer and more transparent than the existing FFP system and would allow some scope for wealthy owners to spend beyond their club’s income, but only if they are willing to pay the luxury tax. Redistributing the money from salary-cap breaches to other clubs would also promote competitiveness, Uefa is expected to argue.
Under the existing system, clubs’ losses from as far back as four years ago can be used as part of the FFP calculation, something that has become almost unworkable after the financial impact of the pandemic on European football.
A constant criticism of FFP has been that it maintains the elite clubs’ position because owners of smaller clubs who are trying to reach the same level are not allowed to put in money to cover losses.
The salary cap as a percentage of revenue would potentially have a similar effect as those clubs with the bigger revenues can spend more on wages, but it would be more flexible and would at least allow owners to breach the cap if they were prepared to pay for it.
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Stattobets write ups, analysis and bets are available to monthly subscribers.
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Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £42,703.40 All bets have an ROI +2.39%
A £4000 bank betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £46,703.40 a 1068% increase
The Road to Riches: Weekend of 21st-22nd August
Coming up this weekend
- Horse Racing, On the flat at Chester, Sandown and York. On the all-weather at Chelmsford, Lingfield and Wolverhampton and over the jumps at Newton Abbot.
- Football, the Premier League matches include Arsenal v Chelsea
- Rugby Union, the Rugby Championship continues, Argentina v South Africa
- Cricket, the second Test match between England and India at Lords and the new Hundred Competition continues
- Golf, the BMW Championship in Baltimore on the USPGA Tour and on the European Tour the European Championship at Crans-Sur-Sierre.
- Tennis, The ATP Winston Salem Open ahead of the US Open
NFL 2021 Regular season
The new season begins on September 9th. Weekly write ups throughout the seventeen week season
Read what to expect here
Sign up for the 17 week regular NFL season for just £50 here
Free tip
Argentina v South Africa, Rugby Championship, Port Elizabeth 4.05pm Saturday
At the same venue last weekend South Africa beat Argentina 32-12. Despite fielding a semi-second string side with ten changes from the 3rd Lions test, the hosts had an advantage for that game with three Lions Tests in the weeks preceding the Rugby Championship to tune them up.
Last week South Africa showed their usual defensive proficiency, having conceded only two tries in five Tests since the 2019 World Cup, but struggled for cohesion on attack at times. Argentina have only been together in South Africa for just a week and showed plenty of willingness to attack but lacked the sharpness to execute against the well-organised hosts. We should expect them to be sharper and fitter this week, though of course no matter the ambition getting the better of the South Africa defence is a tough task
South Africa have rotated again for this week and look much stronger, while Etzebeth is rested most of the regulars from the Lions series are back in a team with eleven changes from last week.
The handicap has come in, reflecting Argentina’s likely improvement, to South Africa -12. That looks skinny given the much stronger South Africa line up.
11 points South Africa -12 points at 10/11 generally
Missed Opportunities
The British Lions, in the aftermath of the 2-1 series defeat in South Africa, will be rueing a missed opportunity. In the third test the Lions and the possession and territory stats reflected that, especially in the first half when they dominated. That looked much closer to the best team / match day squad. Russell sparked the attack and some of the off-loading in the forwards was excellent. The injury to Wyn Jones was pivotal, the starting front row seemed to have the better of it and that had taken a keystone away from the hosts which then reversed in South African dominance up front in the second half.
South Africa showed remarkable fighting spirit over the series overcoming great adversity. That said it felt like rugby was a loser. The series was marred by shenanigans off the field and unattractive rugby on the field.
The Springboks knew in the first test that they were blowing after 50-60 minutes and couldn't go the full 80, and were soundly beaten because of that lack of match fitness after 18 months of COVID related inactivty. Rassie Erasmus then releases a 60-minute video mulling over some calls and placing doubt in the minds of the officials before the 2nd test begins. The 1st half of the 2nd test takes 60 minutes because, in part, the refs and TMO are taking longer than they otherwise would to check some decisions to make sure they're correct. This gives South Africa time to catch their breath and allows them to play later into the match. It's had an effect in both the 2nd and 3rd tests, where there were repeated stoppages.
Over and above this it was, with hindsight, optimistic to expect to beat South Africa physically over three tests . Yet that is exactly what Warren Gatland did, with conservative selections and attritional tactics which was reflected in the teams he selected. Look at the difference Finn Russell made & the only reason he played for 65 odd mins was because Dan Biggar was injured. Perhaps we should ask why the best players from four countries who had eight weeks together couldn't beat South Africa without three of their best players.
The Six Nations and the tail-end of the club season were magnificent and this series was a regression to the more defensive rugby of last Autumn (in fact it was worse). I don’t think the future of rugby will look like this and the 2021 Rugby Championship ans Autumn Internationals should provide much more excitement and enjoyment. Roll on attacking game plans, innovation, offloading, and tries by backs, please!
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Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £42,703.40 All bets have an ROI +2.39%
A £4000 bank betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £46,703.40 a 1068% increase
The Road to Riches: Weekend of 14-15th August
Coming up this weekend
- Horse Racing, On the flat at Bath, Doncaster, Newbury, Newmarket and Ripon and over the jumps at Market Rasen and Perth.
- Football, the start of the Premier League season including Tottenham v Manchester City and Manchester United v Leeds United
- Rugby Union, the Rugby Championship begins, New Zealand v Australia and South Africa v Argentina
- Cricket, the second Test match between England and India at Lords and the new Hundred Competition continues
- Golf, the Northern Trust championship on the USPGA Tour and on the European Tour the Czech Masters.
- Tennis, The ATP Winston Salem Open ahead of the US Open
York Ebor Festival - Full Package (18th - 21st August 2021)
Get Neil’s race by race coverage of the festival for £99 here
Free tip
New Zealand v Australia, Rugby Championship, Eden Park Auckland 7.55am Saturday
The 2021 Rugby Championship starts this weekend. The Springboks return to the tournament after a year out in 2020 due to South African government travel restrictions and player welfare and safety concerns related to COVID.
Most of the tournament will be staged in Australasia with South Africa also hosting two games - their two matches against Argentina in the opening two rounds
In the first Bledisloe Cup game at the same venue last weekend, not part of this Championship, New Zealand began as 22 point favourites against Australia and won 33-25 having led 33-8 before easing off in the last 15 minutes. Australia have not won at Eden Park since 1986 and of course are big underdogs again this weekend
In the Super Rugby Trans-Tasman competition, the five New Zealand sides finished in the top half of the table, while the five Australian teams occupied the bottom half. Between them, the Australian teams managed to win just two of 25 regular season games. However the Wallabies will enter this year’s Championship with a degree of confidence after their 2-1 series victory over France on home soil. Now they are up against a full-strength All Blacks at the Kiwis’ most intimidating stadium, a significant step-up.
Australia dominated France in the set-pieces, but the challenge will be much greater again with the All Blacks. Last Saturday Australia were never outplayed but lacked execution at crucial times. Once again they failed to find combinations in the backline, they did not take advantage of almost double the number of penalties awarded in their favour, and Lolesio kicking 2 out of 7 penalties/conversions was a significant handicap.
The Australian backs must improve markedly. Against France, they were disjointed and lacked communication and if they make as many fundamental errors as they did against France, the All Blacks will cut them to pieces on counter-attack.
For this match New Zealand are 21 to 22 point favourites again
20 points Australia +21 points on the handicap at Evens Bet365 and Skybet
Bubbling
The ECB and the Professional Cricketers’ Association have reaffirmed their commitment to “putting player and staff welfare as the main priority” ahead of this winter’s Ashes tour.
It was reported earlier this month that some England players were considering pulling out of the winter series in Australia should their families be unable to travel.
With the T20 World Cup in the UAE and Oman taking place before the five Test matches, England’s players and staff face the possibility of spending four months away from home in secure bubbles, the mental health impact of which has already been felt in the last 18 months.
The first Ashes Test in Brisbane is due to begin on December 8, though England’s multiformat players would be abroad from mid-September ahead of the T20 World Cup.
A joint statement between the ECB and the PCA explained: “This week, several meetings have been held between the England Men’s players, ECB and Team England Player Partnership to discuss provisional plans for the tour of Australia later in the year.
“All parties are collaborating and will continue to work together to understand protocols around bubble environments, family provision and quarantine rules that will be in place for the tour during the current Covid-19 pandemic.
“With player and management’s welfare paramount, the ECB will discuss planning and operational requirements with Cricket Australia in the coming weeks and how they seek to implement their policies in partnership with state and federal governments.
“All stakeholders are committed to putting player and staff welfare as the main priority and finding the right solutions that enables the England team to compete with the best players and at the highest possible standard that the Ashes series deserves.”
Parts of Australia – which has some of the world’s strictest Covid protocols – are currently in lockdown, with different states having their own regulations. In the past, England’s players have been joined by family over the Christmas and New Year period.
StattoBets Dave Monthly Subscription
Stattobets write ups, analysis and bets are available to monthly subscribers.
Monthly subs are £50 a month and can be cancelled at any time. You can sign up here.
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £42,703.40 All bets have an ROI +2.39%
A £4000 bank betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £46,703.40 a 1068% increase
The Road to Riches: Weekend of 7th-8th August
Coming up this weekend
- Horse Racing, On the flat at Ascot, Ayr, Chelmsford City, Haydock, Lingfield, Newmarket and Redcar.
- Football, the Charity Shield between Manchester City and Leicester City
- Rugby Union, the third test South Africa v the British Lions in Cape Town
- Cricket, the first Test match between England and India at Trent Bridge and the new Hundred Competition continues
- Golf, the Wyndham Championship on the USPGA Tour and on the European Tour the Cazoo Classic at the London GC.
- Tennis, The ATP Western and Southern Open in Cincinnati
York Ebor Festival - Full Package (18th - 21st August 2021)
Get Neil’s race by race coverage of the festival for £99 here
Free tip
South Africa v British Lions Third Test 5pm Saturday, Cape Town
After South Africa’s 27-9 victory in the second Test last weekend, the decider on Saturday
South Africa dominated the second test, particularly in the aerial battle and set piece and with a very effective use of the bench. It wasn’t a great spectacle but hard nosed test rugby slowing the game down, scrummaging and mauling, then kicking for territory and to regain the ball and they demolished the visitors in the second half.
The Lions lacked much creativity, indeed especially in midfield that has long looked a weakness and it is understandable to see changes for the final test in midfield and the back three amongst six overall changes. With South Africa now up to speed, competing with them and matching them for power up front is a tough ask too. There is method to Gatland’s selection: wear the Springboks out and inject tempo in one last second-half push with the likes of Finn Russell on the bench.
It’s not a surprise of course, after a recent 18 point victory, to see (finally!) South Africa installed as favourites here having been underdogs for the first two tests. The absence of Faf De Klerk at scrum half is a blow and replacing Du Toit with a lock playing 6 is another sign that the game plan is brawn and strength.
I expect South Africa to win in a tight one. With the outright value having substantially disappeared I turn to the winning margin market
12 points South Africa to win by 1-12 points at 8/5 Betfred and Paddy Power ,13/8 Betfair Sportsbook
Persuasion
The NFL plans to operate as normal as possible for the upcoming 2021 season and told teams they would forfeit games and lose money if COVID outbreaks occur due to unvaccinated players.
The NFL doesn’t plan to reschedule games as it did during the 2020 season due to outbreaks. Most of the teams have vaccinated 100% of their top staff and set up protocols for staff who aren’t vaccinated. In addition, the league said more than 75% of “players are in the process of being vaccinated, and more than half the clubs have vaccination rates greater than 80% of their players.”
If games are moved or cancelled due to unvaccinated individuals, teams and players could also face financial penalties.
For players, guaranteed money in contracts can become unguaranteed, and they could be fined under conduct detrimental language. The NFL players union warned its players of the league’s stance on postponing games, urging unvaccinated players to seek vaccination and avoid contract issues via conduct detrimental.
On the team front the club experiencing the outbreak will be responsible for all additional expenses incurred by the opposing team and will also be required to pay any shortfall between actual and expected payment to the visiting team’s share pool. In addition, clubs that suffer forfeits will have losses attached to their record, threatening postseason chances.
The NFL said “In light of the substantial roster flexibility in place for the 2021 season, absent medical considerations or government directives, games will not be postponed or rescheduled simply to avoid roster issues caused by injury or illness affecting multiple players, even within a position group”.
The league’s hard stance on postponing games will also protect network partners who just agreed to a $100bn media deal. NFL rescheduled several games last season due to COVID outbreaks
With training camps in full swing, it could be that a players’ vaccination status will now affect whether they make season rosters or not, which is the aim of the NFL, to add persuasion to players to vaccinate.
StattoBets Dave Monthly Subscription
Stattobets write ups, analysis and bets are available to monthly subscribers.
Monthly subs are £50 a month and can be cancelled at any time. You can sign up here.
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £42,703.40 All bets have an ROI +2.39%
A £4000 bank betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £46,703.40 a 1068% increase
