Weekly Articles "Road to Riches" by Rich 'Tighty' Prew
The Road to Riches: Weekend of 8th - 9th May
There is unfortunately no 'Road to Riches' article this week. We hope to return to normal as soon as possible.
Tighty, Neil, Joe and the Team at Bettingemporium
The Road to Riches: Weekend of 1st-2nd May
Coming up this weekend
- Football, Premier League fixtures include Manchester United v Liverpool
- Horse Racing, On the flat at Doncaster, Goodwood, Guineas weekend at Newmarket and Thirsk. Over the jumps at Hexham and Uttoxeter
- Rugby Union, the European Champions Cup Semi-Finals
- Cricket, the IPL continues
- Motor Racing, the Portuguese Grand Prix at Portimao
- Golf, next week the Wells Fargo Championship at Quail Hollow GC on the USPGA and the Tenerife Championship on the European Tour.
- Tennis, ATP Madrid Open
Free tip
The 2000 Guineas by Neil Channing
The Elephant in the Room
After the 48 hour announcement, outcry then abandonment of the European Super League plans the proposed changes to the Champions league format by UEFA from 2024 remain on the table. The 12 clubs who instigated the ESL are not expected to be directly punished by UEFA but could be hit by changes to the new Champions League format that would remove the proposal to award places based on historical performances.
Plans to introduce an expanded 36-team “Swiss-style system” from 2024 that would mean every club plays 10 league stage games against 10 opponents were approved by Uefa’s executive committee last week. Already UEFA is under pressure from clubs not involved in the breakaway to reconsider its plan. Its intention is to reserve two of the four new Champions League spots for “clubs with the highest club coefficient over the last five years” that have not qualified for the Champions League but have qualified for the Europa League or Europa Conference League.
That could mean almost guaranteed entry for a club from one of Europe’s top five leagues which has traditionally performed well in its domestic league but has failed to secure a spot after underperforming. There could be alterations before the end of the year that would see the extra places awarded to champions of smaller domestic leagues that might otherwise have to pre-qualify.
Despite the ESL’s collapse the divisions between UEFA and its leading clubs remain strong with particular concern from players about the proposed number of extra games using this moment to fight for more time off and an end to the meat grinder schedule.
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Stattobets write ups, analysis and bets are available to monthly subscribers.
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Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £42,703.40 All bets have an ROI +2.39%
A £4000 bank betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £46,703.40 a 1068% increase
The Road to Riches: Weekend of 24-25th April
Coming up this weekend
- Football, Premier League fixtures include Leeds United v Manchester United
- Horse Racing, On the flat at Doncaster, Leicester, Haydock, Ripon. Over the jumps at Sandown
- Cricket, the IPL continues
- Golf, next week the Valspar Championship on the USPGA and the Tenerife Open on the European Tour.
- Tennis, ATP Miami Open
Free tip
The Bet365 Gold Cup at Sandown Saturday 3.40pm by Neil Channing
The Bet365 Gold Cup gives us a rare chance to attack a 16-runner handicap on a Saturday so I'm having a Road to Riches outing. Hopefully I won't ruin the free bet figures. We ought to get the full 16 runners, they must have known we should expect pretty fast ground when they declared, and most will have been aiming at this race for a while. I'm happy with either the 1/4 1234 from the sponsors, the 1/5th 123456 with Sky Bet or you can have a look at SportingBet and RedZone to get 1/4 1234, use the Betfair each-way market where a non-runner doesn't change the 1/4 1234 or go to our friends at Bet Connect who offer the choice of prices from lots of firms but all at the 1/4 1234 terms.
I started out by knocking out all the horses that are over 25/1 on the exchanges. If you are playing each-way to benefit from the good place terms you can't be giving up too much on your win bet and it's really no good betting at a couple of clicks under the exchange price which happens due to the users of the exchange understanding the concept of the favourite/longshot bias and making those outsiders a fair bit bigger than they are with the bookies.
Next I crossed out all that are over ten years old as that seems a bit much to win this one and all those carrying eleven-nine or more as historically you've needed to be little lower in the weights over this extreme trip. Next I crossed off the one horse running out of the handicap which is Supreme Escape who runs with three pounds more than the handicapper thinks he ought to. Some horses now had more than one cross by their name.
My last filter was to get rid of horses that have not run well at three miles two furlongs or more. Not many will have form at today's extreme distance so I didn't want to limit it strictly to distance winners but I felt like they had to have shown they at least stay a bit over three miles. I crossed off Enrilo at this stage as he has only had two races at three miles and two in a touch less and in two of those races he's run poorly, one where he may not have got home. This is his 2nd handicap and as a seven year old he could easily improve here but he's a bit short in the market with the stamina doubt. There was one other with a small stamina doubt but I left him on my shortlist of four and I'll go through them and have a bet...
Irish Prophecy has placed in five of his seven chases, he had a little warm up for this in a hurdle last time and he won a handicap chase very easily the time before. The trip is a tiny bit of a worry as finishing 3rd of six in a race where he faded late and was really just left in 3rd was on the only try over more than three miles. In other races he has stayed on strongly though. Tough to discard but I think I'll leave him although he would have been my saver bet if I had one.
Plan of Attack is a strong and obvious favourite. He is the only Irish runner here and for many that will be enough plus he has the excellent Rachael Blackmore on top. At Cheltenham he fell late on in the Kim Muir when still going Ok and that is over 3m2f so he ought to be Ok over today's trip. At home he's raced a lot on ground with cut in it, but it's not his fault it rains a lot in Ireland. Horses definitely do better the 2nd time they try blinkers and I could easily see him win but earlier in the week he was 12/1 for this just a few days ago and 9/2 looks skinny to me.
Golan Fortune ran 18 times over hurdles winning four and placing in five but he comes here on just his fifth start over fences. He won his opening beginner's chase very easily then ran in a couple of top class novice chases where he ran Ok but was a bit outclassed and in his latest run they stuck him in the Midland's Grand National over four miles, two furlongs and he never really got into it and finished down the field looking like he didn't stay. He is definitely hard to weigh up and that makes him potentially interesting but he just isn't solid enough to take each-way.
Kitty's Light is the one I have left and that's going to be my bet. This one is just a five year old so obviously he is improving and he has only run in six chases winning four and placing in the other two. In his five chases last year he stepped up in trip and improved in each one. He particularly wants this fast ground and this year he has had just a couple of bumpers and a handicap hurdle to get himself fit and then an easy win over 3m2f last time at Kelso where they went for the decent ground. He's up just four pounds for that run and if he jumps a bit better here and gets round safely I think he has a great chance of winning and can at least place.
Choose your play
With the IPL final confirmed for May 30, it is unlikely any England player involved can take much part in the New Zealand Test series starting on June 2, part of the ongoing challenge to fit Test match plans into an ever more crowded international schedule across all three formats of the game with England's multi-format players especially affected.
For example, how long will Jofra Archer accept the injury risk of bowling long spells in Test cricket ahead of concentrating on T20? He is 25. He could have a decade of IPL earnings ahead of him worth £15m plus including commercial opportunities on top. England are less likely to win the Ashes without Archer’s pace on the hard Australian surfaces but with his IPL contract and place in the white ball team, as well as fitness issues to consider, he is likely at best to only be used sparingly.
It is nine months until the first Test in Australia but already England's Ashes plans look tricky. England’s coaches believe England have a better chance of winning in Australia later this year because players will be fresher for missing some cricket now but building consistency is tough when players come in and out of the team, especially when it affects senior players.
Of the big three, this is a problem for England more so than Australia and India. Australia do not play the same volume of Test cricket so burn out is less of an issue. India's schedules are cleared for IPL and they bar their players from appearing in other tournaments so there is no clash of priorities.
Next winter is busier than ever and the choice that faces the England management and players is working out what is really important and what is not. Do they all desperately want to regain the Ashes or are priorities mixed now? It feels like the picture is cloudier than ever.
StattoBets Dave Monthly Subscription
Stattobets write ups, analysis and bets are available to monthly subscribers.
Monthly subs are £50 a month and can be cancelled at any time. You can sign up here.
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £42,703.40 All bets have an ROI +2.39%
A £4000 bank betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £46,703.40 a 1068% increase
The Road to Riches: Weekend of 17th-18th April
Coming up this weekend
- Football, The FA Cup Semi-Finals and five Premier League fixtures including Everton v Tottenham
- Horse Racing, On the flat at Brighton, Newbury, Nottingham and Thirsk. Over the jumps at Ayr and Bangor
- Golf, next week the Zurich Classic of New Orleans at TPC Louisiana on the USPGA and the Gran Canaria Open on the European Tour.
- Tennis, ATP Miami Open
Free tip
IPL Mumbai Indians v Sunrisers Hyderabad 3pm Saturday (in Chennai)
As we reach the end of the first week of the 2021 IPL the Mumbai Indians, Champions over the last two years had a disappointing start losing to RCB narrowly failing to defend 160 then rebounded to stifle KKR and defend 152 in midweek
Sunrisers meanwhile failed to chase 186 to beat KKR last weekend and followed that up with another loss to RCB.
Mumbai’s batting line up is my focus here. Rohit Sharma and Quinton de Kock, now in the side after a period in quarantine after arriving in India, open the batting with Chris Lynn opening in de Kock’s absence during the first game. Yadav, Kishan, Pollard and the two Pandyas round out the top seven. Clearly the opening pair should be favourite in any Top Mumbai batsman market
So far in the tournament Ishan Kishan, batting 4, has scored 28 and 1. He is a player to be backing though (subject of course to short term single game variance in this high variance format). Kishan broke through in last year’s IPL.
Kishan totalled 483 runs in just 12 innings at an average of 53.66 and strike rate of 144.2 having only been introduced to the side after an injury in the team. He hit 29 sixes and ended joint top run scorer in the tournament. The Former India U19 captain recently made his international debut, in the T20 series against England scoring 56 in one of his two innings opening the batting. Now 22 he is maturing, perhaps it’s overstating it to hear him described as the “new Kohli” at this stage but at 9/2 he’s a price that might not be routinely around before too many more IPL games as he continues to develop.
10 points Ishan Kishan Top Mumbai Indians run scorer at 9/2 Skybet 4/1 Betfred, Bet365
Will the Lions roar?
The British and Irish Lions’ summer tour to South Africa is set to go ahead as originally scheduled,
Contingency plans, including staging the three-match Test series in the UK, were being considered due to ongoing uncertainty caused by the coronavirus pandemic. However the Lions board has confirmed to SA Rugby its preference to stick with the initial plan of matches being hosted by South Africa during July and August. Earlier this month, the Lions board had turned down an offer from Australia to stage the tour.
Lions chairman Jason Leonard said in a statement: “We acknowledge that there is a significant amount of work still to be undertaken to deliver a robust Covid-19 countermeasure plan to ensure a successful, safe and uninterrupted tour. SA Rugby will have our full support to help implement this plan.”
The Lions, coached by Warren Gatland, are due to play Test matches in Johannesburg on July 24 and August 7, either side of a game in Cape Town on July 31.
There is still uncertainty about whether crowds will be permitted to attend matches.
President of SA Rugby Mark Alexander said: “There are serious financial implications for SA Rugby should the event take place without any supporters in attendance, and we cannot ignore that in our considerations. But we are determined that the eventual outcome will deliver the best occasion and experience for players, supporters and our commercial partners.”
While there is now a clear path for the tour to proceed, Rugby Football Union chief executive Bill Sweeney made it clear that, if South Africa are unable to host, then it will be cancelled.
A guarantee the country is able to stage it has yet to be given amid fears that a third wave of coronavirus will begin in June. South Africa have been slow in their vaccine roll out and there are cost implications for the hosts if they are unable to welcome fans into stadiums.
One idea to survive from the discussions about a home ‘tour’ is to stage four Tests between the world champions and the Lions, in addition to the send-off game against Japan at Murrayfield on June 26. All four tests could be at altitude after accepting that the traditional touring concept would have to be shelved for this summer.
The original schedule is being reviewed to reduce costs and control the risk of Covid-19 by creating as few bubbles as possible. One option under consideration is that the Lions base themselves in Gauteng Province for six weeks and play all their matches on the Highveld, using the FNB Stadium and Orlando Stadium in Soweto, Ellis Park in Johannesburg and Loftus Versfeld in Pretoria.
The other option is a twin-centred tour, which would involve the Lions playing in Cape Town. If a four-Test schedule was agreed, they could take on the Springboks at the 55,000- capacity Cape Town Stadium.
StattoBets Dave Monthly Subscription
Stattobets write ups, analysis and bets are available to monthly subscribers.
Monthly subs are £50 a month and can be cancelled at any time. You can sign up here.
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £42,703.40 All bets have an ROI +2.39%
A £4000 bank betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £46,703.40 a 1068% increase
The Road to Riches: Weekend of 10th-11th April
Coming up this weekend
- Football, Premier League fixtures include Tottenham v Manchester United
- Horse Racing, Over the jumps at Aintree, Chepstow and Newcastle and on the all-weather at Lingfield and Wolverhampton
- Rugby Union, European Champions Cup Quarter finals
- Cricket, the IPL Continues
- Golf, next week the RBC Heritage at Harbour Links on the USPGA and the Austrian Open on the European Tour.
- Tennis, ATP Monte Carlo Masters
Free tip
European Champions Cup Quarter finals
Clermont-Auvergne v Toulouse 3pm Sunday
For the first time, five of the eight Champions Cup Quarter Finals teams are from France.
If one of those teams, Toulouse, are to win their first European trophy in over a decade, they will have to do it entirely on the road, starting in Clermont in the quarter-finals this weekend.
This tie represents two teams who are 4th and top of the French Top 14. Three time European finalists Clermont needed a last minute converted try to win at Wasps last weekend to reach their
11th quarter final. They have plenty of gas out wide, led by the Japanese full back Matsushima alongside Penaud and Fofana but it was their power off the bench that led them past Wasps.
Toulouse, who lost in the semi-finals at Exeter last year, won 40-31 last weekend at Munster having trailed seven points at half time. Toulouse scored all four of their tries after half-time. They were affected more than normal by the late finish to the Six Nations with their French Internationals only returning to club training in the midweek before the game. It took them a while to find some rhythm but once they did their finishing was lethal. In the brilliant Cheslin Kolbe and the French International half-backs Ntamack and Dupont they have match-winners.
Back in the Top 14 at Clermont last September Clermont beat Toulouse 33-30 though Toulouse had two red cards after31 and 49 mins and still led with 10 mins to go.
Clermont is a tough place to go, but such is the strength of the Toulouse team that the visitors are 4/6 outright and -3 on the Handicap to win here (Clermont 6/4). It should certainly be tight, but Toulouse should just prevail
10 points Toulouse to win by 1-12 points at 11/5 Betfair Sportsbook, 2/1 Paddy Power, 3.00 Betfair Exchange in low liquidity and 6/4 Betfred
365
Denise Coates, the head of Bet365, was paid £469m in 2020 in one of the biggest annual pay packets seen yet in British corporate history earning £421m from her salary and a further £48mln in dividends according to the online gambling firm’s annual report.
Coates was already one of the UK’s highest earnings before 2020 but last years’ remuneration saw a near 70% rise on the £277m she earned in the previous year.
According to the HighPay Centre, Coates earned more than the chiefs of every FTSE 100 company combined.
The pay hike came in a tough year as revenues in 2020 fell 8% to £2.8bn due to international sporting events being cancelled because of COVID-19 while profits fell 74% to £194.7m.
Bet365 said it had not cut any staff and did not use the furlough scheme during the pandemic while it had also made an £85m charitable donation to the Denise Coates Foundation.
Coates' pay tops the previous highest earner in Britain by some margin.
That was hedge fund manager and philanthropist Sir Chris Hohn, who runs The Children’s Investment (TCI) fund and in March took home £343m.
Ms Coates, Bet365’s joint chief executive, was the country’s largest taxpayer for the second year running last year, according to the latest annual Sunday Times Tax List. She and her family, who are worth £7.16bn, had a tax liability of £573 million last year and amidst the usual outrage and debate she has previously said she could offshore the business but prefers to ensure she pays taxes to fund public services.
StattoBets Dave Monthly Subscription
Stattobets write ups, analysis and bets are available to monthly subscribers.
Monthly subs are £50 a month and can be cancelled at any time. You can sign up here.
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £42,703.40 All bets have an ROI +2.39%
A £4000 bank betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £46,703.40 a 1068% increase
