The Road to Riches: Weekend of 24-25th April

Coming up this weekend

• Football, Premier League fixtures include Leeds United v Manchester United
• Horse Racing, On the flat at Doncaster, Leicester, Haydock, Ripon. Over the jumps at Sandown
• Cricket, the IPL continues
• Golf, next week the Valspar Championship on the USPGA and the Tenerife Open on the European Tour.
• Tennis, ATP Miami Open

Free tip

The Bet365 Gold Cup at Sandown Saturday 3.40pm by Neil Channing

The Bet365 Gold Cup gives us a rare chance to attack a 16-runner handicap on a Saturday so I'm having a Road to Riches outing. Hopefully I won't ruin the free bet figures. We ought to get the full 16 runners, they must have known we should expect pretty fast ground when they declared, and most will have been aiming at this race for a while. I'm happy with either the 1/4 1234 from the sponsors, the 1/5th 123456 with Sky Bet or you can have a look at SportingBet and RedZone to get 1/4 1234, use the Betfair each-way market where a non-runner doesn't change the 1/4 1234 or go to our friends at Bet Connect who offer the choice of prices from lots of firms but all at the 1/4 1234 terms.

I started out by knocking out all the horses that are over 25/1 on the exchanges. If you are playing each-way to benefit from the good place terms you can't be giving up too much on your win bet and it's really no good betting at a couple of clicks under the exchange price which happens due to the users of the exchange understanding the concept of the favourite/longshot bias and making those outsiders a fair bit bigger than they are with the bookies.

Next I crossed out all that are over ten years old as that seems a bit much to win this one and all those carrying eleven-nine or more as historically you've needed to be little lower in the weights over this extreme trip. Next I crossed off the one horse running out of the handicap which is Supreme Escape who runs with three pounds more than the handicapper thinks he ought to. Some horses now had more than one cross by their name.

 My last filter was to get rid of horses that have not run well at three miles two furlongs or more. Not many will have form at today's extreme distance so I didn't want to limit it strictly to distance winners but I felt like they had to have shown they at least stay a bit over three miles. I crossed off Enrilo at this stage as he has only had two races at three miles and two in a touch less and in two of those races he's run poorly, one where he may not have got home. This is his 2nd handicap and as a seven year old he could easily improve here but he's a bit short in the market with the stamina doubt. There was one other with a small stamina doubt but I left him on my shortlist of four and I'll go through them and have a bet...

 Irish Prophecy has placed in five of his seven chases, he had a little warm up for this in a hurdle last time and he won a handicap chase very easily the time before. The trip is a tiny bit of a worry as finishing 3rd of six in a race where he faded late and was really just left in 3rd was on the only try over more than three miles. In other races he has stayed on strongly though. Tough to discard but I think I'll leave him although he would have been my saver bet if I had one.

Plan of Attack is a strong and obvious favourite. He is the only Irish runner here and for many that will be enough plus he has the excellent Rachael Blackmore on top. At Cheltenham he fell late on in the Kim Muir when still going Ok and that is over 3m2f so he ought to be Ok over today's trip. At home he's raced a lot on ground with cut in it, but it's not his fault it rains a lot in Ireland. Horses definitely do better the 2nd time they try blinkers and I could easily see him win but earlier in the week he was 12/1 for this just a few days ago and 9/2 looks skinny to me.

Golan Fortune ran 18 times over hurdles winning four and placing in five but he comes here on just his fifth start over fences.  He won his opening beginner's chase very easily then ran in a couple of top class novice chases where he ran Ok but was a bit outclassed and in his latest run they stuck him in the Midland's Grand National over four miles, two furlongs and he never really got into it and finished down the field looking like he didn't stay. He is definitely hard to weigh up and that makes him potentially interesting but he just isn't solid enough to take each-way.

Kitty's Light is the one I have left and that's going to be my bet. This one is just a five year old so obviously he is improving and he has only run in six chases winning four and placing in the other two. In his five chases last year he stepped up in trip and improved in each one. He particularly wants this fast ground and this year he has had just a couple of bumpers and a handicap hurdle to get himself fit and then an easy win over 3m2f last time at Kelso where they went for the decent ground. He's up just four pounds for that run and if he jumps a bit better here and gets round safely I think he has a great chance of winning and can at least place.

Choose your play

With the IPL final confirmed for May 30, it is unlikely any England player involved can take much part in the New Zealand Test series starting on June 2, part of the ongoing challenge to fit Test match plans into an ever more crowded international schedule across all three formats of the game with England's multi-format players especially affected.

For example, how long will Jofra Archer accept the injury risk of bowling long spells in Test cricket ahead of concentrating on T20? He is 25. He could have a decade of IPL earnings ahead of him worth £15m plus including commercial opportunities on top. England are less likely to win the Ashes without Archer’s pace on the hard Australian surfaces but with his IPL contract and place in the white ball team, as well as fitness issues to consider, he is likely at best to only be used sparingly. 

It is nine months until the first Test in Australia but already England's Ashes plans look tricky. England’s coaches believe England have a better chance of winning in Australia later this year because players will be fresher for missing some cricket now but building consistency is tough when players come in and out of the team, especially when it affects senior players. 

Of the big three, this is a problem for England more so than Australia and India. Australia do not play the same volume of Test cricket so burn out is less of an issue. India's schedules are cleared for IPL and they bar their players from appearing in other tournaments so there is no clash of priorities. 

Next winter is busier than ever and the choice that faces the England management and players is working out what is really important and what is not. Do they all desperately want to regain the Ashes or are priorities mixed now? It feels like the picture is cloudier than ever.

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The Road to Riches: Weekend of 17th-18th April

Coming up this weekend

• Football, The FA Cup Semi-Finals and five Premier League fixtures including Everton v Tottenham
• Horse Racing, On the flat at Brighton, Newbury, Nottingham and Thirsk. Over the jumps at Ayr and Bangor
• Golf, next week the Zurich Classic of New Orleans at TPC Louisiana on the USPGA and the Gran Canaria Open on the European Tour.
• Tennis, ATP Miami Open

Free tip

IPL Mumbai Indians v Sunrisers Hyderabad 3pm Saturday (in Chennai)

As we reach the end of the first week of the 2021 IPL the Mumbai Indians, Champions over the last two years had a disappointing start losing to RCB narrowly failing to defend 160 then rebounded to stifle KKR and defend 152 in midweek

Sunrisers meanwhile failed to chase 186 to beat KKR last weekend and followed that up with another loss to RCB.

Mumbai’s batting line up is my focus here. Rohit Sharma and Quinton de Kock, now in the side after a period in quarantine after arriving in India, open the batting with Chris Lynn opening in de Kock’s absence during the first game. Yadav, Kishan, Pollard and the two Pandyas round out the top seven. Clearly the opening pair should be favourite in any Top Mumbai batsman market

So far in the tournament Ishan Kishan, batting 4, has scored 28 and 1. He is a player to be backing though (subject of course to short term single game variance in this high variance format). Kishan broke through in last year’s IPL.

Kishan totalled 483 runs in just 12 innings at an average of 53.66 and strike rate of 144.2 having only been introduced to the side after an injury in the team. He hit 29 sixes and ended joint top run scorer in the tournament. The Former India U19 captain recently made his international debut, in the T20 series against England scoring 56 in one of his two innings opening the batting. Now 22 he is maturing, perhaps it’s overstating it to hear him described as the “new Kohli” at this stage but at 9/2 he’s a price that might not be routinely around before too many more IPL games  as he continues to develop.

10 points Ishan Kishan Top Mumbai Indians run scorer at 9/2 Skybet 4/1 Betfred, Bet365

Will the Lions roar?

The British and Irish Lions’ summer tour to South Africa is set to go ahead as originally scheduled,

Contingency plans, including staging the three-match Test series in the UK, were being considered due to ongoing uncertainty caused by the coronavirus pandemic. However the Lions board has confirmed to SA Rugby its preference to stick with the initial plan of matches being hosted by South Africa during July and August. Earlier this month, the Lions board had turned down an offer from Australia to stage the tour.

Lions chairman Jason Leonard said in a statement: “We acknowledge that there is a significant amount of work still to be undertaken to deliver a robust Covid-19 countermeasure plan to ensure a successful, safe and uninterrupted tour. SA Rugby will have our full support to help implement this plan.”

The Lions, coached by Warren Gatland, are due to play Test matches in Johannesburg on July 24 and August 7, either side of a game in Cape Town on July 31.

There is still uncertainty about whether crowds will be permitted to attend matches.

President of SA Rugby Mark Alexander said: “There are serious financial implications for SA Rugby should the event take place without any supporters in attendance, and we cannot ignore that in our considerations. But we are determined that the eventual outcome will deliver the best occasion and experience for players, supporters and our commercial partners.”

While there is now a clear path for the tour to proceed, Rugby Football Union chief executive Bill Sweeney made it clear that, if South Africa are unable to host, then it will be cancelled.

A guarantee the country is able to stage it has yet to be given amid fears that a third wave of coronavirus will begin in June. South Africa have been slow in their vaccine roll out and there are cost implications for the hosts if they are unable to welcome fans into stadiums.

One idea to survive from the discussions about a home ‘tour’ is to stage four Tests between the world champions and the Lions, in addition to the send-off game against Japan at Murrayfield on June 26. All four tests could be at altitude after accepting that the traditional touring concept would have to be shelved for this summer.

The original schedule is being reviewed to reduce costs and control the risk of Covid-19 by creating as few bubbles as possible. One option under consideration is that the Lions base themselves in Gauteng Province for six weeks and play all their matches on the Highveld, using the FNB Stadium and Orlando Stadium in Soweto, Ellis Park in Johannesburg and Loftus Versfeld in Pretoria.

The other option is a twin-centred tour, which would involve the Lions playing in Cape Town. If a four-Test schedule was agreed, they could take on the Springboks at the 55,000- capacity Cape Town Stadium.

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The Road to Riches: Weekend of 10th-11th April

Coming up this weekend

• Football, Premier League fixtures include Tottenham v Manchester United
• Horse Racing, Over the jumps at Aintree, Chepstow and Newcastle and on the all-weather at Lingfield and Wolverhampton
• Rugby Union, European Champions Cup Quarter finals
• Cricket, the IPL Continues 
• Golf, next week the RBC Heritage at Harbour Links on the USPGA and the Austrian Open on the European Tour.
• Tennis, ATP Monte Carlo Masters

Free tip

European Champions Cup Quarter finals

Clermont-Auvergne v Toulouse 3pm Sunday

For the first time, five of the eight Champions Cup Quarter Finals teams are from France.

If one of those teams, Toulouse, are to win their first European trophy in over a decade, they will have to do it entirely on the road, starting in Clermont in the quarter-finals this weekend.

This tie represents two teams who are 4^th and top of the French Top 14. Three time European finalists Clermont needed a last minute converted try to win at Wasps last weekend to reach their

11^th quarter final. They have plenty of gas out wide, led by the Japanese full back Matsushima alongside Penaud and Fofana but it was their power off the bench that led them past Wasps.

Toulouse, who lost in the semi-finals at Exeter last year, won 40-31 last weekend at Munster having trailed seven points at half time. Toulouse scored all four of their tries after half-time. They were affected more than normal by the late finish to the Six Nations with their French Internationals only returning to club training in the midweek before the game. It took them a while to find some rhythm but once they did their finishing was lethal.  In the brilliant Cheslin Kolbe and the French International half-backs Ntamack and Dupont they have match-winners.

Back in the Top 14 at Clermont last September Clermont beat Toulouse 33-30 though Toulouse had two red cards after31 and 49 mins and still led with 10 mins to go.

Clermont is a tough place to go, but such is the strength of the Toulouse team that the visitors are 4/6 outright and -3 on the Handicap to win here (Clermont 6/4). It should certainly be tight, but Toulouse should just prevail

10 points Toulouse to win by 1-12 points at 11/5 Betfair Sportsbook, 2/1 Paddy Power, 3.00 Betfair Exchange in low liquidity and 6/4 Betfred

365

Denise Coates, the head of Bet365, was paid £469m in 2020 in one of the biggest annual pay packets seen yet in British corporate history earning £421m from her salary and a further £48mln in dividends according to the online gambling firm’s annual report.

Coates was already one of the UK’s highest earnings before 2020 but last years’ remuneration saw a near 70% rise on the £277m she earned in the previous year.

According to the HighPay Centre, Coates earned more than the chiefs of every FTSE 100 company combined.

The pay hike came in a tough year as revenues in 2020 fell 8% to £2.8bn due to international sporting events being cancelled because of COVID-19 while profits fell 74% to £194.7m.

Bet365 said it had not cut any staff and did not use the furlough scheme during the pandemic while it had also made an £85m charitable donation to the Denise Coates Foundation.

Coates' pay tops the previous highest earner in Britain by some margin.

That was hedge fund manager and philanthropist Sir Chris Hohn, who runs The Children’s Investment (TCI) fund and in March took home £343m.

Ms Coates, Bet365’s joint chief executive, was the country’s largest taxpayer for the second year running last year, according to the latest annual Sunday Times Tax List. She and her family, who are worth £7.16bn, had a tax liability of £573 million last year and amidst the usual outrage and debate she has previously said she could offshore the business but prefers to ensure she pays taxes to fund public services.

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The Road to Riches: Weekend of 27th-28th March

The Road to Riches will be off next week, back for the weekend of 10th-11th April

Coming up this weekend

• Football, World Cup Qualifying matches
• Horse Racing, On the flat at Doncaster, over the jumps at  Kelso and Newbury and on the all-weather at Kempton and
• Rugby Union, the final match of the Six Nations Championship
• Cricket, the India-England ODI series continues in Pune
• Formula One, the start of the new season with the Bahrain Grand Prix 
• Golf, the WGC-Dell Matchplay in Austin, the Corales Championship in Punta Cana on the USPGA and the Kenya Savannah Classic on the European Tour.
• Tennis, ATP Miami Open

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Free tip

Six Nations France v Scotland Friday 8pm

France came back to beat Wales 32-30, scoring two tires in the last ten minutes to come from ten points behind to give them a shot at winning the Six nations title. Wales picked up a losing bonus point, which means to have any chance of winning the title France must defeat Scotland in this rescheduled match with an attacking bonus point, scoring four tries. It would then come down to points difference, which currently favours Wales 61 to 41.

For long periods of the Wales match France were second best, often trying to force attacking patterns and losing accuracy. Playing 14 against 13 in the last 10 minutes proved crucial. Nowadays with all the young talent that has been introduced to the team since 2020 France have combined their flair with discipline and game management they never had before and are winning these sorts of games. By the time they hit the 2023 World Cup at home, the team will be at its peak and a real threat to win the tournament.

Scotland meanwhile dispatched Italy scoring 8 tries and will have Russell back for this game. The presence of Russell, Hogg and the Scotland backs and an under-rated back row capable of slowing down France’s ball gives them a puncher’s chance but this French side will be going for it and it will be quite the task to stay in the game.

Here Scotland are limited to selecting five English-based players because of an agreement with the Premiership looking for a victory that would take them above Ireland and Friday's visitors into second place in the Six Nations table.

Whether France will win by 20+ points is the big issue. I expect them to score tries. However Scotland have the potential to do so too and ultimately I expect France to fall just short of a tournament winning margin in this game. France are 16 point favourites on the handicap. A Six day turnaround at the end of the tournament will probably assist attack over tired defence, so another high scoring game seems likely

Splitting the stakes around a winning margin just short of France winning the Championship:

6 points France to win by 16-20 points at 6/1 Betfred,

6 points France to win by 11-15 points at 13/2 Betfred, William Hill

Rotation

For the England cricket team, the issue of player workload looks set to reach a critical point at the end of the year as England face the prospect of close to four months away from home on successive tours of Pakistan, Bangladesh, India and Australia.

The first two are a build-up to the T20 World Cup, then the Ashes tour follows soon after. Both are England’s top two priorities this year so choosing the right tours for all-format players such as Ben Stokes, Jos Buttler and Jofra Archer to rest next winter becomes almost impossible.

A host of key players missed the recent 3-1 defeat in India, including Buttler for all but the first Test, while Stokes and Archer missed the two Tests in Sri Lanka in January. The fact is these players are being rested for Test cricket in order to play in a franchise tournament.

Some players will play a full IPL straight after the white-ball leg of England’s tour of India and are also seemingly set to miss the first Test series of the home summer against New Zealand. Resting against burn-out seems unlikely to be successful when players on Test contracts understandably choose to put their bodies on the line for a payday in the IPL.

Stokes, Buttler or Archer are all are paid close to a £1m a year by England and will be key to their hopes in the T20 World Cup and the Ashes. Yet there is little else England can do under the circumstances. It seems certain all of the IPL contingent will be rested for Tests this summer, including in the marquee series against India. At least, from England’s point of view, Archer’s elbow injury problems mean he is likely to miss the IPL

With England leaving for a T20 tour of Pakistan in early October, the T20 World Cup finishing in mid-November and the Ashes likely to conclude in the middle of January, there is next to no chance for a break in the first half of next winter and why England are backing their rotation policy.

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The Road to Riches: Weekend of 20th-21st March

Coming up this weekend

• Football, FA Cup Quarter Finals
• Horse Racing, Over the jumps at Fontwell, Kempton, Newcastle and Uttoxeter and on the all-weather at Wolverhampton
• Rugby Union, the final weekend of the Six Nations Championship
• Cricket, the India-England T20 series continues in Ahmedabad  
• Golf, the Honda Classic at the PGA National on the USPGA and the Kenya Open.
• Tennis, ATP Miami Open

Free tip

Six Nations France v Wales Saturday 8pm

In France’s narrow loss at Twickenham last weekend we watched a match at a level above anything else seen so far in the Championship and the most exciting half of play we’ve seen in a long time in Northern Hemisphere International rugby.

France did fade in the last 20 minutes, which is somewhat of a habit,  and indicative that they are not the complete package yet, being predominantly a young team but give it those few years until their home Rugby World Cup in 2023 and they are going to be serious contenders. Not only do they have multiple play-makers and match-winners from 9-15 but they re led superbly and have more talent up front in this generation than in previous teams of the last decade.

France have got plenty to play for here. With their postponed game against Scotland yet to be played, they are still able to win both games and potentially win the Championship.

Wales were clinical in Rome, scoring 7 tries and in style and form a far cry from the side that lost 10 of their first 13 tests under Pivac and 7 out of 10 Tests in 2020. With four wins out of four in this Championship they are a win here away from one of the more surprising Grand Slams!

What is notable is that they have scored 17 tries in 4 games, albeit assisted by playing against 14 men twice, and helped by having a brilliant young finisher in Louis Rees-Zammit on the wing and with George North rejuvenated playing in the centre. Coming up against the French Shaun Edwards coached defense will be a big test.

The fact that Wales are going to have to raise their performance further is indicated by France being 1/3 outright and seven to eight point favourites here. I do expect them to win, and potentially this could be quite high scoring.  France by a score or two looks reasonable.

10 points France to win by 1-12 points 2.9 on the Betfair Exchange 9/4 Betfair Sportsbook and 7/4 Betfred

CVC

CVC’s deal with the Six Nations is for a 14.3% share (an exact seventh share) that is worth £365 million. For the RFU, which receives the biggest payment, it equates to £95 million being paid over five years.

CVC  has a slice of the combined shared commercial revenue from the six unions that make up the Six Nations and it can influence who the RFU and sell its TV rights and sponsorship to and the six unions have come together to roll their rights for their autumn Tests and the Six Nations into one.

CVC only has one vote in seven on commercial deals. So if, as is pretty much guaranteed, the new TV deal for the Six Nations takes some of the games away from free-to-air TV, this cannot be said to be CVC’s doing. It would require CVC to bring at least three of the unions with it to influence the outcome of a deal.

What the unions have done, in effect, is sold off a share of their future income for a large, more immediate payment presumably used to trigger growth in the game and fill the hole caused by Covid-19.

The single biggest increase in earnings for CVC and the unions is not going to be from the Six Nations Championship but, instead, from the autumn. In future years the Autumn Nations Cup will involve the big southern hemisphere nations and the tournament’s value will grow.

CVC will need to make Test rugby work harder and it believes it can do that with better marketing and use of data. It is widely recognised that the game’s personalities are hopelessly under-promoted. in the meantime, bought itself a lucrative and reliable income stream.

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Monthly subs are £50 a month and can be cancelled at any time. You can sign up here. 

Betting Emporium results

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If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £42,703.40  All bets have an ROI +2.39%

A £4000 bank betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £46,703.40 a 1068% increase