Weekly Articles "Road to Riches" by Rich 'Tighty' Prew
The Road to Riches: Weekend of 16-17th January
Coming up this weekend
- Football, the Premier League returns, including Liverpool v Manchester United
- Horse Racing, Over the jumps at Warwick and Market Rasen and on the all-weather at Kempton and Lingfield
- Cricket, The first test match between England and Sri Lanka in Galle continues
- Golf, the Sony Open in Hawaii
Free tip
Big Bash League: Sydney Sixers v Perth Scorchers, Canberra, Saturday 7.40am
The Perth Scorchers were renowned as one of the most innovative T20 teams when Justin Langer was head coach and they won three titles and finished runners up twice. There has been upheaval since both on and off the field
This season the Scorchers started poorly with a no result and three losses in their first four games. They have then won five games in a row to move towards post-season qualification, currently sitting in thirds place in the league table.
My eye here is on the Scorchers batting line-up where Englishmen Jason Roy and Liam Livingstone open the batting. Roy especially is the definition of a “boom bust” cricketer, he’ll come off from time to time but often won’t, meaning a player coming in 3 or 4 will frequently get the majority of the 20 overs to compile a score.
Both Roy and Livingstone have only one 50 in 6 appearances this season, consistency is not their forte.
It is though the hallmark of 33 year old Colin Munro who has been batting at three. A big hitting New Zealander, he missed out on a New Zealand national team T20 contract so headed to the BBL and the Scorchers amongst a number of T20 franchises he has played for in various leagues around the world
Much like the rest of the side Munro started the BBL season slowly but has hit form with three successive 50s in his last three appearances. He is the top Scorchers run scorer this season and has faced the most balls. He missed the win over the Hobart Hurricanes on Tuesday with a short term leg injury but should be back for this game against a Sixers side sitting at the top of the table with seven wins in ten games.
10 points Colin Munro Top Perth Scorchers batsman at 7/2 William Hill,100/30 Bet365
In the Tank.
In week 17 of the NFL against Washington the Philadelphia Eagles had nothing to play for, while a win would clinch a division title and play-off berth for the Football Team. However, an Eagles victory would have put the New York Giants in the post-season instead of Washington.
The controversy came when (since sacked) Eagles head coach Doug Pederson benched starting quarterback Jalen Hurts in the second half for Nate Sudfeld after Hurts had ran for a couple of touchdowns. Washington won and the Giants missed the play-offs. For the Eagles the loss secured the sixth overall pick in this year’s NFL Draft; a victory would have dropped them to ninth.
The Eagles had good reasons to “tank”. It is possible the value of losing the game for the Eagles was equivalent to a second-round pick based on the compensation for trades moving from 9 to 6 in previous drafts.
There is now talk that the NFL should introduce a draft lottery, such as those run in the NBA and NHL. Until the advent of analytics teams in the NFL had a predominant “every game matters” philosophy. It is no coincidence the Eagles, celebrated for using analytics on their Super Bowl run three years ago, are the team that appeared to tank most obviously.
There is a logic to trading away veteran talent and accruing draft capital if you are not in contention for the play-offs. There is also logic to bad teams trying to finish with the worst record when a rare quarterback talent like Trevor Lawrence or Andrew Luck is in the next draft.
A lottery is designed to limit, but not completely negate, the purpose of the draft: to reward the worst teams. The league needs to randomise enough that the marginal benefit to losing a game goes down. The NBA already has one for all the teams who don’t make the play-offs, but it is weighted so that the worst team still has the best chance of getting the top pick. Having a true lottery, where all the non-play-off teams are put into a hat and their Draft order is drawn out at random, could virtually cut out tanking.
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The Road to Riches: Weekend of 9th-10th January
The Road to Riches: Weekend of 9th-10th January
Coming up this weekend
- Football, the FA Cup 3rd round
- Horse Racing, Over the jumps at Chepstow, Kempton and Wincantion and on the all-weather at Chelmsford City and Lingfield
- Cricket, The Big Bash League in Australia continues
- Golf, next week the Sony Open in Hawaii
- Tennis, the Antalya and Delray Beach Opens
Free tip
FA Cup 3rd round match Newport v Brighton Sunday 7.45pm
The annual quest to find an FA Cup upset at a price resumes! Newport are second in League two, having lost only 4 of 20 league games this season. COVID has of course affected all lower league sides but prior to that Newport had been able to capitalise on cup runs in recent years to strengthen the squad to be in contention in the league.
I often look out for Newport, not just because of good cup form over several seasons but because if drawn at home, at the dual use Rodney parade, conditions can be a real leveller. The ground, home also to the Dragons rugby franchise in the Pro 14 holds under 8,000 for football. It is basic, and a planned relaying of the pitch was postponed when the pandemic hit. Last week’s league game was postponed as the surface was frozen.
Of course Brighton should be favourites. However they have no league wins in 8 games and have slipped to one place above the relegation zone. The cup cannot be their priority, rotation is assured . Over the Christmas period they rotated in the second of the three games over the holidays, at home to Arsenal and I was struck by the drop off between the first choice side and their replacements.
With Newport readily available at 11/2+, its of interest.
10 points Newport to beat Brighton at 6/1 with William Hill. 11/2 with Betfred, BetVictor and BetfairSportsbook
The Jacksonville Jaguars
With the New York Jets winning two games at the back end of the season the Jaguars with 1 win and 15 losses in the just finished regular season secured the number one draft pick in the April 2021 draft. They now look to appoint a new general manager and a new coach ahead of that.
For a side that has one winning season in the last twelve, and has won 42 games in ten years this job is regarded as probably the best one in this upcoming off-season cycle, and not just because this is the first time they will have the first overall pick. Why is this?
- Multiple draft picks in the 1st,2nd,4th,5th and 7th rounds. 11 altogether including 4 in first two rounds
- Second least cap commitments for 2021 with over $100m in projected available cap space, giving them the ability to be a player in free agency too
- Patient ownership (only two general managers and four head coaches despite the poor records of the last decade)
- A “Once in a decade” Quarterback prospect Trevor Lawrence is in the draft
- A Young roster with talent, particularly at wide receiver for Lawrence to come in and work with
All of these factors mean Jacksonville has everything that’s needed to build a perennial contender and they should be considering blockbuster hires at both positions. Whoever is appointed has to lead the team to drafting better. None of the first round picks selected before 2019 are still on the roster and only 2 of the last 14 have made the Pro bowl whilst on the roster, and this mostly from selections made in the top ten picks of the draft.
Now is the time to appoint well, draft well to amass talent and become competitive on a consistent basis.
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If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £42,703.40 All bets have an ROI +2.39%
A £4000 bank betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £46,703.40 a 1068% increase
The Road to Riches: Weekend of 2nd-3rd January
Coming up this weekend
- Football, the Premier League fixtures include Chelsea v Manchester City
- Horse Racing, Over the jumps at Ayr, Hereford and Sandown and on the all-weather at Lingfield and Wolverhampton
- Cricket, The Big Bash League in Australia continues
- Golf, next week the Tournament of Champions in Kapalua, Hawaii
Free tip
FA Cup Ante-Post
The FA Cup 3rd round takes place next weekend. We know that as in recent years it is not a priority for many Premier League teams, and in this truncated season we are ever more likely to get rotation and in some cases limited motivation from some seemingly tired squads. At least from this year there are no replays to accentuate these problems. That said, “Big Six” sides have won 7 of the last 8 FA Cups and 13 of the last fifteen, testament to strong squads so here we are looking to identify some value ante-post positions outside the big six, each way, and try to bypass some of the rotation and motivation issues by highlighting teams which are not going to be relegated or unlikely to qualify for Europe.
This is trickier this year in a congested premier league table where seven sides look to be in the relegation battle and 2nd to 10th in the table are separated by six points.
Of course any selection will need some luck with draw, all we can do is at least try to get off on the right foot and see where thirds round draws look favourable.
A couple of candidates on my short list were Leeds (concede too many goals) and Wolves (not enough firepower without Jimenez, though the January transfer window may help) with a secondary look at Newcastle (but Arsenal away to start). All should be targeting this competition. No doubt not all will!
Instead I alighted on two teams, 10th and 12th in the betting for the competition which look to be both decent teams and good prices.
The first is Southampton at 33-1, Shrewsbury at home in the third round, nine in the Premier league having only conceded 19 goals in 16 league games, well managed and plenty of scoring options too. I was particularly struck by 33-1 compared to (say) Arsenal at 10-1
The second is West Ham at 40-1, aatStockport in the third round, mid table Premier League side that could go well.
Each way terms are ½ 1,2 and of course these are speculative positions where a lot needs to go right over five months
5 points each way Southampton to win the FA Cup at 33-1 generally
5 points each way West Ham to win the FA Cup at 40-1 generally
The 2023 Rugby World Cup Draw
It has always seemed to me a bit strange to draw the Pools for a World Cup three years in advance, as was the case in Paris before Christmas for the 2023 event that France will host. Seedings based on results in the two years before the draw will of course not necessarily reflect the pecking order when the tournament eventually takes place.
England were drawn in a Pool against Japan and Argentina. Due to COVID Japan have not played since their own World Cup on 2019. Whilst of course a lot can happen in three years we’ll see what impact a year away from internationals has on their future competitiveness.
Argentina have also had problems. Due also to COVID and major changes to Super Rugby the Jaguares side folded, a franchise for whom the bulk of the national side played. That said recent results including beating the All Blacks and drawing twice with Australia are encouraging but the organisational challenges of the next three years are going to be tough to overcome.
The shape of the draw brings England a familiar problem. In the 2019 World cup they faced a knockout stage route of Australia- New Zealand- South Africa, with the third game a “bridge too far”. This route is replicated in the 2023 draw
Looking now France are the fastest improving side in the World and the All Blacks on a modest down curve. They meet in the pool stages (first game of the tournament, anyone?). Ireland once again have been drawn with Scotland, and possibly New Zealand await in the Quarter finals
The full Pools are as follows
A: New Zealand, France, Italy, Americas 1, Africa 1
B: South Africa, Ireland, Scotland, Asia Pacific 1, Europe 2
C: Wales, Australia, Fiji, Europe 1, Qualifier tournament winner
D: England, Japan, Argentina, Oceania 1, Americas 2
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Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £42,703.40 All bets have an ROI +2.39%
A £4000 bank betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £46,703.40 a 1068% increase
The Road to Riches: Weekend of 19th-20th December
Note: After this week The column will resume on Friday January 1st
Coming up this weekend
- Football, the Premier League returns including Manchester United v Leeds Utd
- Horse Racing, Over the jumps at Ascot, Haydock and Newcastle and on the all-weather at Lingfield and Wolverhampton
- Rugby Union, the 2020-21 European Champions Cup tournament continues
- Cricket, The Big Bash League in Australia
Free tip
European Champions Cup Rugby Pool 2 Gloucester v Ulster Saturday 3.15pm
Ulster began their campaign last weekend with a 22-29 loss to last season’s semi-finalists Toulouse having led 12-0 early on, a creditable performance against one of the tournament favourites in which they scored three tries.
Gloucester meanwhile were thrashed 55-10 at Lyon. There were mitigating circumstances, as they were without the injured Danny Cipriani (who this week has announced he is leaving the club immediately), Billy Twelvetrees, Joe Simpson, Jason Woodward, Freddie Clarke, Matt Garvey, Lloyd Evans, Val Rapava-Ruskin and Jack Stanley.
Coach George Skivington also rested Ollie Thorley, Mark Atkinson, Louis Rees-Zammit, Chris Harris, Jack Singleton, Ruan Ackermann and Ed Slater giving an indication that the game was not a priority compared to others in the pool given the injury absences.
The side that played had four teenagers in the squad and six other starters under the age of 23 against a Lyon side who were unbeaten in seven Top 14 games
Ordinarily Gloucester would be a very tough place to travel, with “The Shed” roaring on the home team but a small crowd will be in place this time. Ulster look the far superior team as a Tier 1 Pro 14 side leading their domestic group having won all eight games in the new season ahead of an also unbeaten Leinster. Last season they lost in the Pro 14 final to Leinster. The side contains a number of current Irish internationals although captain Ian Henderson is injured, but nonetheless a very well-rounded side.
Gloucester are seeded in tier 4 amongst the Gallagher Premiership sides. Last year they finished 7th having only won 8 of 22 league games, a season in which the coaching staff changed after the COVID resumption. In the new 2020-21 season they have so far won one of three games, beating Wasps but losing at Leicester and Harlequins.
Ulster are 1/3 outright favourites and -8 on the point spread.
10 points Ulster to win by 1-12 points at 2/1 with Betfair Sportsbook, 15/8 Paddy Power 7/5 Betfred
A game Changer
An 80 strong group of former rugby players is considering a joint legal action against the game’s governing bodies over the effects of concussions they suffered during their careers.
Meanwhile Rugby World Cup winner Steve Thompson and seven other former players claim the sport has left them with permanent brain damage - and are in the process of starting a claim against the game's authorities for negligence. The group includes former internationals from England and Wales who sustained head knocks during their careers. Since retiring, they are reported to have suffered symptoms such as memory loss, insomnia, migraines and depression.
The potential lawsuit is being hailed as a “game changer”, similar to the action taken by 4,500 former American football players in 2012 against the NFL, which may be forced to pay out $1 billion in compensation.
All eight players to have come forward so far have been diagnosed by neurologists at King's College, London, with early onset dementia and probable Chronic Traumatic Encephalopathy (CTE).
CTE can develop when the brain is subjected to numerous small blows or rapid movements - sometimes known as sub-concussions. The disease can only be diagnosed in a brain after death, but some experts believe if history of exposure is evaluated, it is reasonable to conclude that the risk increases. The embryonic nature of the science around the issue could play a key part in the success or failure of the overall case.
It has been found in the brains of dozens of former NFL players, as well as a handful of deceased footballers, including former West Bromwich Albion and England player Jeff Astle. A re-examination of his brain in 2014 found he had died from CTE.
This week the RFU CEO Bill Sweeney said “It's a very serious moment for us. There is no scientific proof of the causal link between concussion and CTE. There are differences between American football and rugby union. We are worried about reputational risk and we need to allay people’s fears.”
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Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £42,703.40 All bets have an ROI +2.39%
A £4000 bank betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £46,703.40 a 1068% increase
The Road to Riches: Weekend of 12th-13th December
Coming up this weekend
- Football, the Premier League returns including Manchester United v Manchester City
- Horse Racing, Over the jumps at Cheltenham, Doncaster, Hereford and on the all-weather at Newcastle and Wolverhampton
- Rugby Union, the start of the 2020-21 European Champions Cup tournament
- Formula One, The Abu Dhabi Grand Prix
- Cricket, The Big Bash League in Australia
- Golf, the DP World Tour Golf Championship
Free tip
European Champions Cup Rugby Pool A: Bath v Scarlets 3.15pm Saturday
The first weekend of this season’s flagship European club rugby tournament. Due to COVID-`19 delaying the end of the previous tournament twenty-four clubs from the three major European domestic and regional leagues will compete on a one-year exceptional basis.
These twenty-four teams, seeded into tiers, will be broken down into two pools of twelve. Four rounds of inter-pool play will be followed by a knockout stage. The four teams from each pool with the best points will qualify for the knockout stage. Teams finishing 5th through 8th after pool play will join the Challenge Cup at the round of 16 stage (joining eight qualifiers from the Challenge Cup pool stage)
In the game I am featuring here Bath finished fourth in the Gallagher Premiership last year and lost heavily to eventual winners Bath in the play-off semi finals and have had a difficult start to the new Premiership season, losing their first two games at home to Newcastle and at Exeter before getting off the mark with a win at Worcester. They have a second tier seeding for this competition amongst the English sides and post the Autumn International season can call on seven internationals, five of them in the forwards including Sam Underhill.
The Scarlets have a third tier seeding amongst Pro 14 teams having finished 3rd of 7 teams in the pool behind Munster in the season postponed in March and resumed in truncated fashion in August. In the new season they are also in third place. They also welcome many internationals back
Bath are 1/4 outright and -11 on the handicap here having begun the week 1/3 and -8. I expect them to win by up to two scores.
10 points Bath to beat Scarlets by 1-12 points at 6/4 with Betfred
What’s for Wentz?
In the NFL we've watched former second overall draft pick Carson Wentz of the Eagles play at a high level for three consecutive campaigns between 2017 and 2019 including most of the season the Eagles won the Super-Bowl prior to his injury. He led his team to the playoffs with an injury-riddled wide receiver group last season, but the Eagles also had the 11th-ranked rushing offense and a relatively consistent offensive line.
This season’s performance is a far cry from those levels, which eventually saw him benched for second round draft pick Jalen Hurts during the loss to the Packers on Sunday Hurts has since been named the new starting quarterback and the rookie will start on Sunday versus the New Orleans Saints.
Wentz was completing just 58% of his passes (worst in the NFL among starters) and, of most alarm, led the league in interceptions (12) and total turnovers (16).
Across the franchise there are other issues affecting this performance notably big losses from Injuries. Before Week 1, the Eagles lost left tackle Andre Dillard (torn biceps) and right guard Brandon Brooks (torn Achilles) for the year. The front office re-signed Jason Peters to fill the latter position, but the 38 year old has been inconsistent at best and has also missed four games injured.
A fortnight ago Eagles lost three-time Pro Bowl right tackle Lane Johnson and Philadelphia rolled out its 11th offensive line combination last weekend
Secondly Wentz has suffered from his receivers form. They’ve dropped 29 passes this season, the most in the league and few of them win on the outside of the field consistently. Play calling has been an issue such as the Head Coach has publically contemplated handing over those responsibilities.
The biggest issue of all that the Eagles face is a financial one. Wentz signed a 4 year $109m contract extension last year, fourth highest in the league. If he is not on the roster in 2021 the cost to the franchise from the salary cap is $60m under the guaranteed component of the contract. For 2022 the cost would be $24m. There is an argument that this contract is a “sunk cost” and if its wrong, you should move on but in practical terms
Next year’s salary cap could be as low as $175m ($198m this year) due to falls in league revenue in a COVID year and the Eagles have $264m in committed contract liabilities for players next year. So it looks as if Wentz is on the roster to stay, but a number of other expensive players probably won’t be.
It could be a rough time ahead for a franchise that only won the Super=-Bowl three years ago.
StattoBets Dave Monthly Subscription
Stattobets write ups, analysis and bets are available to monthly subscribers.
Monthly subs are £50 a month and can be cancelled at any time. You can sign up here.
Betting Emporium results
The detailed results page has been updated as have the spreadsheets with the detailed bets. They can be found by clicking RESULTS
If you bet £10 per point on every recommended bet since launch you would be winning + £42,703.40 All bets have an ROI +2.39%
A £4000 bank betting £10 a point on all selections would now be worth £46,703.40 a 1068% increase
